From outbreaks to endemic disease.

Relief from the effects of epidemics may signal the start of low-level disease persistence.

Ecological Fallacy and Aggregated Data: A Case Study of Fried Chicken Restaurants, Obesity and Lyme Disease.

Interdisciplinary approaches are merited when attempting to understand the complex and idiosyncratic processes driving the spillover of pathogens from wildlife and vector species to human populations. Public health data are often available for zoonotic pathogens but can lead to erroneous conclusions if the data have been spatially or temporally aggregated. As an illustration, we use human Lyme disease incidence data as a case study to examine correlations between mammalian biodiversity, fried chicken restaurants and obesity rates on human disease incidence. We demonstrate that Lyme disease incidence is negatively correlated with mammalian biodiversity, the abundance of fried chicken restaurants and obesity rates. We argue, however, that these correlations are spurious, representing both an 'ecologic fallacy' and Simpson's paradox, and are generated by the use of aggregated data. We argue that correlations based on aggregated data across large spatial scales must be rigorously examined before being invoked as proof of disease ecology theory or as a rationale for public health policy.

Transmission pathways and spillover of an erythrocytic bacterial pathogen from domestic cats to wild felids.

Many pathogens infect multiple hosts, and spillover from domestic to wild species poses a significant risk of spread of diseases that threaten wildlife and humans. Documentation of cross-species transmission, and unraveling the mechanisms that drive it, remains a challenge. Focusing on co-occurring domestic and wild felids, we evaluate possible transmission mechanisms and evidence of spillover of "Candidatus Mycoplasma haemominutum" (CMhm), an erythrocytic bacterial parasite of cats. We examine transmission and possibility of spillover by analyzing CMhm prevalence, modeling possible transmission pathways, deducing genotypes of CMhm pathogens infecting felid hosts based on sequences of the bacterial 16S rRNA gene, and conducting phylogenetic analyses with ancestral state reconstruction to identify likely cross-species transmission events. Model selection analyses suggest both indirect (i.e., spread via vectors) and direct (i.e., via interspecific predation) pathways may play a role in CMhm transmission. Phylogenetic analyses indicate that transmission of CMhm appears to predominate within host species, with occasional spillover, at unknown frequency, between species. These analyses are consistent with transmission by predation of smaller cats by larger species, with subsequent within-species persistence after spillover. Our results implicate domestic cats as a source of global dispersal and spillover to wild felids via predation. We contribute to the emerging documentation of predation as a common means of pathogen spillover from domestic to wild cats, including pathogens of global conservation significance. These findings suggest risks for top predators as bioaccumulators of pathogens from subordinate species.

Yersinia pestis Survival and Replication in Potential Ameba Reservoir.

Plague ecology is characterized by sporadic epizootics, then periods of dormancy. Building evidence suggests environmentally ubiquitous amebae act as feral macrophages and hosts to many intracellular pathogens. We conducted environmental genetic surveys and laboratory co-culture infection experiments to assess whether plague bacteria were resistant to digestion by 5 environmental ameba species. First, we demonstrated that Yersinia pestis is resistant or transiently resistant to various ameba species. Second, we showed that Y. pestis survives and replicates intracellularly within Dictyostelium discoideum amebae for ˃48 hours postinfection, whereas control bacteria were destroyed in <1 hour. Finally, we found that Y. pestis resides within ameba structures synonymous with those found in infected human macrophages, for which Y. pestis is a competent pathogen. Evidence supporting amebae as potential plague reservoirs stresses the importance of recognizing pathogen-harboring amebae as threats to public health, agriculture, conservation, and biodefense.

Responsible RAD: Striving for best practices in population genomic studies of adaptation.

Two recent articles were written in response to our paper "Breaking RAD: An evaluation of the utility of restriction site associated DNA sequencing scans of adaptation." While we agree with some of the comments made by the authors of these two response papers, we still believe caution should be employed in RADseq studies that aim to detect loci that contribute to adaptation. In this rebuttal, we evaluate the key points made in these papers, attempt to identify a middle ground and make suggestions for responsibly conducting future studies to understand the genomewide mechanisms of adaptation.

Breaking RAD: an evaluation of the utility of restriction site-associated DNA sequencing for genome scans of adaptation.

Understanding how and why populations evolve is of fundamental importance to molecular ecology. Restriction site-associated DNA sequencing (RADseq), a popular reduced representation method, has ushered in a new era of genome-scale research for assessing population structure, hybridization, demographic history, phylogeography and migration. RADseq has also been widely used to conduct genome scans to detect loci involved in adaptive divergence among natural populations. Here, we examine the capacity of those RADseq-based genome scan studies to detect loci involved in local adaptation. To understand what proportion of the genome is missed by RADseq studies, we developed a simple model using different numbers of RAD-tags, genome sizes and extents of linkage disequilibrium (length of haplotype blocks). Under the best-case modelling scenario, we found that RADseq using six- or eight-base pair cutting restriction enzymes would fail to sample many regions of the genome, especially for species with short linkage disequilibrium. We then surveyed recent studies that have used RADseq for genome scans and found that the median density of markers across these studies was 4.08 RAD-tag markers per megabase (one marker per 245 kb). The length of linkage disequilibrium for many species is one to three orders of magnitude less than density of the typical recent RADseq study. Thus, we conclude that genome scans based on RADseq data alone, while useful for studies of neutral genetic variation and genetic population structure, will likely miss many loci under selection in studies of local adaptation.

Finding the Genomic Basis of Local Adaptation: Pitfalls, Practical Solutions, and Future Directions.

Uncovering the genetic and evolutionary basis of local adaptation is a major focus of evolutionary biology. The recent development of cost-effective methods for obtaining high-quality genome-scale data makes it possible to identify some of the loci responsible for adaptive differences among populations. Two basic approaches for identifying putatively locally adaptive loci have been developed and are broadly used: one that identifies loci with unusually high genetic differentiation among populations (differentiation outlier methods) and one that searches for correlations between local population allele frequencies and local environments (genetic-environment association methods). Here, we review the promises and challenges of these genome scan methods, including correcting for the confounding influence of a species' demographic history, biases caused by missing aspects of the genome, matching scales of environmental data with population structure, and other statistical considerations. In each case, we make suggestions for best practices for maximizing the accuracy and efficiency of genome scans to detect the underlying genetic basis of local adaptation. With attention to their current limitations, genome scan methods can be an important tool in finding the genetic basis of adaptive evolutionary change.

Intra-host mathematical model of chronic wasting disease dynamics in deer (Odocoileus).

Bioassays of native cervid hosts have established the presence of infectious chronic wasting disease (CWD) prions in saliva, blood, urine, and feces of clinically diseased and pre-clinical infected deer. The intra-host trafficking of prions from the time of initial infection to shedding has been less well defined. We created a discrete-time compartmentalized model to simulate the misfolding catalysis, trafficking, and shedding of infectious prions throughout the organ systems of CWD-infected cervids. Using parameter values derived from experimental infections of North American deer (Odocoileus spp.), the exponential-based model predicts prion deposition over time with: 1) nervous tissues containing the highest deposition of prions at 20 months post-infection and 2) excreted fluids containing low levels of prions throughout infection with the highest numbers of prions predicted to be shed in saliva and feces (as high as 10 lethal doses (1.34 × 1029 prions) in 11-15 months). These findings are comparable to prion deposition described in literature as assayed by conventional and ultrasensitive amplification assays. The comparison of our model to published data suggests that highly sensitive assays (sPMCA, RT-QuIC, and bioassay) are appropriate for early prion detection in bodily fluids and secretions. The model provides a view of intra-host prion catalysis leading to pre-clinical shedding and provides a framework for continued development of antemortem diagnostic methods.

Ecological Traits Driving the Outbreaks and Emergence of Zoonotic Pathogens.

Infectious diseases that are transmitted from wildlife hosts to humans, such as the Ebola virus and MERS virus, can be difficult to understand because the pathogens emerge from complex multifaceted ecological interactions. We use a wildlife-pathogen system-prairie dogs (Cynomys ludovicianus) and the plague bacterium (Yersinia pestis)-to describe aspects of disease ecology that apply to many cases of emerging infectious disease. We show that the monitoring and surveillance of hosts and vectors during the buildup to disease outbreaks are crucial for understanding pathogen-transmission dynamics and that a community-ecology framework is important to identify reservoir hosts. Incorporating multidisciplinary approaches and frameworks may improve wildlife-pathogen surveillance and our understanding of seemingly sporadic and rare pathogen outbreaks.

Bayesian Modeling of Prion Disease Dynamics in Mule Deer Using Population Monitoring and Capture-Recapture Data.

Epidemics of chronic wasting disease (CWD) of North American Cervidae have potential to harm ecosystems and economies. We studied a migratory population of mule deer (Odocoileus hemionus) affected by CWD for at least three decades using a Bayesian framework to integrate matrix population and disease models with long-term monitoring data and detailed process-level studies. We hypothesized CWD prevalence would be stable or increase between two observation periods during the late 1990s and after 2010, with higher CWD prevalence making deer population decline more likely. The weight of evidence suggested a reduction in the CWD outbreak over time, perhaps in response to intervening harvest-mediated population reductions. Disease effects on deer population growth under current conditions were subtle with a 72% chance that CWD depressed population growth. With CWD, we forecasted a growth rate near one and largely stable deer population. Disease effects appear to be moderated by timing of infection, prolonged disease course, and locally variable infection. Long-term outcomes will depend heavily on whether current conditions hold and high prevalence remains a localized phenomenon.

AGE AND REPEATED BIOPSY INFLUENCE ANTEMORTEM PRP(CWD) TESTING IN MULE DEER (ODOCOILEUS HEMIONUS) IN COLORADO, USA.

Biopsy of rectal mucosa-associated lymphoid tissue provides a useful, but imperfect, live-animal test for chronic wasting disease (CWD) in mule deer (Odocoileus hemionus). It is difficult and expensive to complete these tests on free-ranging animals, and wildlife health managers will benefit from methods that can accommodate test results of varying quality. To this end, we developed a hierarchical Bayesian model to estimate the probability that an individual is infected based on test results. Our model was estimated with the use of data on 210 adult female mule deer repeatedly tested during 2010-14. The ability to identify infected individuals correctly declined with age and may have been influenced by repeated biopsy. Fewer isolated lymphoid follicles (where PrP(CWD) accumulates) were obtained in biopsies of older deer and the proportion of follicles showing PrP(CWD) was reduced. A deer's genotype in the prion gene (PRNP) also influenced detection. At least five follicles were needed in a biopsy to assure a 95% accurate test in PRNP genotype 225SS deer.

Single-Nucleotide Polymorphisms Reveal Spatial Diversity Among Clones of Yersinia pestis During Plague Outbreaks in Colorado and the Western United States.

BACKGROUND: In western North America, plague epizootics caused by Yersinia pestis appear to sweep across landscapes, primarily infecting and killing rodents, especially ground squirrels and prairie dogs. During these epizootics, the risk of Y. pestis transmission to humans is highest. While empirical models that include climatic conditions and densities of rodent hosts and fleas can predict when epizootics are triggered, bacterial transmission patterns across landscapes, and the scale at which Y. pestis is maintained in nature during inter-epizootic periods, are poorly defined. Elucidating the spatial extent of Y. pestis clones during epizootics can determine whether bacteria are propagated across landscapes or arise independently from local inter-epizootic maintenance reservoirs. MATERIAL AND METHODS: We used DNA microarray technology to identify single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in 34 Y. pestis isolates collected in the western United States from 1980 to 2006, 21 of which were collected during plague epizootics in Colorado. Phylogenetic comparisons were used to elucidate the hypothesized spread of Y. pestis between the mountainous Front Range and the eastern plains of northern Colorado during epizootics. Isolates collected from across the western United States were included for regional comparisons. RESULTS: By identifying SNPs that mark individual clones, our results strongly suggest that Y. pestis is maintained locally and that widespread epizootic activity is caused by multiple clones arising independently at small geographic scales. This is in contrast to propagation of individual clones being transported widely across landscapes. Regionally, our data are consistent with the notion that Y. pestis diversifies at relatively local scales following long-range translocation events. We recommend that surveillance and prediction by public health and wildlife management professionals focus more on models of local or regional weather patterns and ecological factors that may increase risk of widespread epizootics, rather than predicting or attempting to explain epizootics on the basis of movement of host species that may transport plague.

Prevalence of the generalist flea Pulex simulans on black-tailed prairie dogs (Cynomys ludovicianus) in New Mexico, USA: the importance of considering imperfect detection.

If a parasite is not detected during a survey, one of two explanations is possible: the parasite was truly absent or it was present but not detected. We fit occupancy models to account for imperfect detection when combing fleas (Siphonaptera) from black-tailed prairie dogs (Cynomys ludovicianus) during June-August 2012 in the Vermejo Park Ranch, New Mexico, USA. With the use of detection histories from combing events during monthly trapping sessions, we fit occupancy models for two flea species: Oropsylla hirusta (a prairie dog specialist) and Pulex simulans (a generalist). Detection probability was <100% for both species and about 21% lower for P. simulans. Pulex simulans may be especially difficult to detect because it is about half the size of O. hirusta. Monthly occupancy (prevalence) for P. simulans was estimated at 24% (June, 95% confidence interval = 19-30), 39% (July, 32-47), and 56% (August, 49-64) in new prairie dog colonies, and 43% (32-54), 61% (49-71), and 79% (70-87) in old colonies. These results suggest P. simulans can attain high prevalence on prairie dogs, especially in old colonies. If P. simulans is highly prevalent on prairie dogs, it may serve as a "bridge vector" between Cynomys and other mammalian hosts of the plague bacterium Yersinia pestis, and even function as a reservoir of Y. pestis between outbreaks.

Duration of plague (Yersinia pestis) outbreaks in black-tailed prairie dog (Cynomys ludovicianus) colonies of northern Colorado.

Plague, caused by the bacterium Yersinia pestis, triggers die-offs in colonies of black-tailed prairie dogs (Cynomys ludovicianus), but the time-frame of plague activity is not well understood. We document plague activity in fleas from prairie dogs and their burrows on three prairie dog colonies that suffered die-offs. We demonstrate that Y. pestis transmission occurs over periods from several months to over a year in prairie dog populations before observed die-offs.

Using occupancy models to investigate the prevalence of ectoparasitic vectors on hosts: An example with fleas on prairie dogs.

Ectoparasites are often difficult to detect in the field. We developed a method that can be used with occupancy models to estimate the prevalence of ectoparasites on hosts, and to investigate factors that influence rates of ectoparasite occupancy while accounting for imperfect detection. We describe the approach using a study of fleas (Siphonaptera) on black-tailed prairie dogs (Cynomys ludovicianus). During each primary occasion (monthly trapping events), we combed a prairie dog three consecutive times to detect fleas (15 s/combing). We used robust design occupancy modeling to evaluate hypotheses for factors that might correlate with the occurrence of fleas on prairie dogs, and factors that might influence the rate at which prairie dogs are colonized by fleas. Our combing method was highly effective; dislodged fleas fell into a tub of water and could not escape, and there was an estimated 99.3% probability of detecting a flea on an occupied host when using three combings. While overall detection was high, the probability of detection was always <1.00 during each primary combing occasion, highlighting the importance of considering imperfect detection. The combing method (removal of fleas) caused a decline in detection during primary occasions, and we accounted for that decline to avoid inflated estimates of occupancy. Regarding prairie dogs, flea occupancy was heightened in old/natural colonies of prairie dogs, and on hosts that were in poor condition. Occupancy was initially low in plots with high densities of prairie dogs, but, as the study progressed, the rate of flea colonization increased in plots with high densities of prairie dogs in particular. Our methodology can be used to improve studies of ectoparasites, especially when the probability of detection is low. Moreover, the method can be modified to investigate the co-occurrence of ectoparasite species, and community level factors such as species richness and interspecific interactions.

Genetic basis of differences in myxospore count between whirling disease-resistant and susceptible strains of rainbow trout.

We used a quantitative genetics approach and estimated broad sense heritability (h2b) of myxospore count and the number of genes involved in myxospore formation to gain a better understanding of how resistance to Myxobolus cerebralis, the parasite responsible for whirling disease, is inherited in rainbow trout Oncorhynchus mykiss. An M. cerebralis-resistant strain of rainbow trout, the German Rainbow (GR), and a wild, susceptible strain of rainbow trout, the Colorado River Rainbow (CRR), were spawned to create 3 intermediate crossed populations (an F1 cross, F2 intercross, and a B2 backcross between the F1 and the CRR). Within each strain or cross, h2b was estimated from the between-family variance of myxospore counts using full-sibling families. Estimates of h2b and average myxospore counts were lowest in the GR strain, F1 cross, and F2 intercross (h2b = 0.34, 0.42, and 0.34; myxospores fish-1 = 275, 9566, and 45780, respectively), and highest in the B2 backcross and CRR strain (h2b = 0.93 and 0.89; myxospores fish-1 = 97865 and 187595, respectively). Comparison of means and a joint-scaling test suggest that resistance alleles arising from the GR strain are dominant to susceptible alleles from the CRR strain. Resistance was retained in the intermediate crosses but decreased as filial generation number increased (F2) or backcrossing occurred (B2). The estimated number of segregating loci responsible for differences in myxospore count in the parental strains was 9 ± 5. Our results indicate that resistance to M. cerebralis is a heritable trait within these populations and would respond to either artificial selection in hatcheries or natural selection in the wild.

Evolution and medicine in undergraduate education: a prescription for all biology students.

The interface between evolutionary biology and the biomedical sciences promises to advance understanding of the origins of genetic and infectious diseases in humans, potentially leading to improved medical diagnostics, therapies, and public health practices. The biomedical sciences also provide unparalleled examples for evolutionary biologists to explore. However, gaps persist between evolution and medicine, for historical reasons and because they are often perceived as having disparate goals. Evolutionary biologists have a role in building a bridge between the disciplines by presenting evolutionary biology in the context of human health and medical practice to undergraduates, including premedical and preprofessional students. We suggest that students will find medical examples of evolution engaging. By making the connections between evolution and medicine clear at the undergraduate level, the stage is set for future health providers and biomedical scientists to work productively in this synthetic area. Here, we frame key evolutionary concepts in terms of human health, so that biomedical examples may be more easily incorporated into evolution courses or more specialized courses on evolutionary medicine. Our goal is to aid in building the scientific foundation in evolutionary biology for all students, and to encourage evolutionary biologists to join in the integration of evolution and medicine.

Resistance to plague among black-tailed prairie dog populations.

In some rodent species frequently exposed to plague outbreaks caused by Yersinia pestis, resistance to the disease has evolved as a population trait. As a first step in determining if plague resistance has developed in black-tailed prairie dogs (Cynomys ludovicianus), animals captured from colonies in a plague-free region (South Dakota) and two plague-endemic regions (Colorado and Texas) were challenged with Y. pestis at one of three doses (2.5, 250, or 2500 mouse LD50s). South Dakota prairie dogs were far more susceptible to plague than Colorado and Texas prairie dogs (p<0.001), with a mortality rate of nearly 100% over all doses. Colorado and Texas prairie dogs were quite similar in their response, with overall survival rates of 50% and 60%, respectively. Prairie dogs from these states were heterogeneous in their response, with some animals dying at the lowest dose (37% and 20%, respectively) and some surviving even at the highest dose (29% and 40%, respectively). Microsatellite analysis revealed that all three groups were distinct genetically, but further studies are needed to establish a genetic basis for the observed differences in plague resistance.

Transmission shifts underlie variability in population responses to Yersinia pestis infection.

Host populations for the plague bacterium, Yersinia pestis, are highly variable in their response to plague ranging from near deterministic extinction (i.e., epizootic dynamics) to a low probability of extinction despite persistent infection (i.e., enzootic dynamics). Much of the work to understand this variability has focused on specific host characteristics, such as population size and resistance, and their role in determining plague dynamics. Here, however, we advance the idea that the relative importance of alternative transmission routes may vary causing shifts from epizootic to enzootic dynamics. We present a model that incorporates host and flea ecology with multiple transmission hypotheses to study how transmission shifts determine population responses to plague. Our results suggest enzootic persistence relies on infection of an off-host flea reservoir and epizootics rely on transiently maintained flea infection loads through repeated infectious feeds by fleas. In either case, early-phase transmission by fleas (i.e., transmission immediately following an infected blood meal) has been observed in laboratory studies, and we show that it is capable of driving plague dynamics at the population level. Sensitivity analysis of model parameters revealed that host characteristics (e.g., population size and resistance) vary in importance depending on transmission dynamics, suggesting that host ecology may scale differently through different transmission routes enabling prediction of population responses in a more robust way than using either host characteristics or transmission shifts alone.