Exposure of protected areas in Central America to extreme weather events.

Central America and the Caribbean are regularly battered by megadroughts, heavy rainfall, heat waves, and tropical cyclones. Although 21st-century climate change is expected to increase the frequency, intensity, and duration of these extreme weather events (EWEs), their incidence in regional protected areas (PAs) remains poorly explored. We examined historical and projected EWEs across the region based on 32 metrics that describe distinct dimensions (i.e., intensity, duration, and frequency) of heat waves, cyclones, droughts, and rainfall and compared trends in PAs with trends in unprotected lands. From the early 21st century onward, exposure to EWEs increased across the region, and PAs were predicted to be more exposed to climate extremes than unprotected areas (as shown by autoregressive model coefficients at p < 0.05 significance level). This was particularly true for heat waves, which were projected to have a significantly higher average (tested by Wilcoxon tests at p < 0.01) intensity and duration, and tropical cyclones, which affected PAs more severely in carbon-intensive scenarios. PAs were also predicted to be significantly less exposed to droughts and heavy rainfall than unprotected areas (tested by Wilcoxon tests at p < 0.01). However, droughts that could threaten connectivity between PAs are increasingly common in this region. We estimated that approximately 65% of the study area will experience at least one drought episode that is more intense and longer lasting than previous droughts. Collectively, our results highlight that new conservation strategies adapted to threats associated with EWEs need to be tailored and implemented promptly. Unless urgent action is taken, significant damage may be inflicted on the unique biodiversity of the region.

Ciclones, olas de calor, sequías y lluvias intensas son eventos comunes en Centroamérica y el Caribe, cuya frecuencia, intensidad y duración se espera aumente durante el siglo XXI a causa del cambio climático. Sin embargo, en la actualidad, se desconoce cuál será la incidencia de estos eventos meteorológicos extremos (EME) dentro de las áreas protegidas. En este estudio examinamos la exposición histórica y futura a los extremos climáticos y comparamos el grado de exposición dentro y fuera de las áreas protegidas de toda la región por medio de 32 métricas que describen distintas dimensiones (intensidad, duración y frecuencia) de las olas de calor, los ciclones, las sequías y las precipitaciones. Los resultados indican que a medida que aumente el número de EME, las áreas protegidas estarán más expuestas a los extremos climáticos que las áreas no protegidas. Esto es especialmente cierto en el caso de las olas de calor, que, según las proyecciones, tendrán una intensidad y una duración medias significativamente mayores, y de los ciclones tropicales, que afectarán más gravemente a las zonas protegidas en los escenarios intensivos en carbono. Nuestros resultados también indican que las zonas protegidas estarán significativamente menos expuestas a sequías o lluvias torrenciales que las zonas no protegidas. Sin embargo, las sequías que podrían amenazar la conectividad entre áreas protegidas son cada vez más frecuentes en esta región. Se estima que aproximadamente el 65% del área de estudio experimentará al menos un episodio de sequía más intenso y duradero que las sequías anteriores. En conjunto, nuestros resultados ponen de relieve la necesidad de diseñar y aplicar con prontitud nuevas estrategias de conservación adaptadas a las amenazas asociadas a los EWE. A menos que se tomen medidas urgentes, la biodiversidad única de la región podría sufrir daños considerables.

Data error propagation in stacked bioclimatic envelope models.

Stacking is the process of overlaying inferred species potential distributions for multiple species based on outputs of bioclimatic envelope models (BEMs). The approach can be used to investigate patterns and processes of species richness. If data limitations on individual species distributions are inevitable, but how do they affect inferences of patterns and processes of species richness? We investigate the influence of different data sources on estimated species richness gradients in China. We fitted BEMs using species distributions data for 334 bird species obtained from (1) global range maps, (2) regional checklists, (3) museum records and surveys, and (4) citizen science data using presence-only (Mahalanobis distance), presence-background (MAXENT), and presence-absence (GAM and BRT) BEMs. Individual species predictions were stacked to generate species richness gradients. Here, we show that different data sources and BEMs can generate spatially varying gradients of species richness. The environmental predictors that best explained species distributions also differed between data sources. Models using citizen-based data had the highest accuracy, whereas those using range data had the lowest accuracy. Potential richness patterns estimated by GAM and BRT models were robust to data uncertainty. When multiple data sets exist for the same region and taxa, we advise that explicit treatments of uncertainty, such as sensitivity analyses of the input data, should be conducted during the process of modeling.

Power laws in species' biotic interaction networks can be inferred from co-occurrence data.

Inferring biotic interactions from species co-occurrence patterns has long intrigued ecologists. Yet recent research revealed that co-occurrences may not reliably represent pairwise biotic interactions. We propose that examining network-level co-occurrence patterns can provide valuable insights into community structure and assembly. Analysing ten bipartite networks of empirically sampled biotic interactions and associated species spatial distribution, we find that approximately 20% of co-occurrences correspond to actual interactions. Moreover, the degree distribution shifts from exponential in co-occurrence networks to power laws in networks of biotic interactions. This shift results from a strong interplay between species' biotic (their interacting partners) and abiotic (their environmental requirements) niches, and is accurately predicted by considering co-occurrence frequencies. Our work offers a mechanistic understanding of the assembly of ecological communities and suggests simple ways to infer fundamental biotic interaction network characteristics from co-occurrence data.

Temperate species underfill their tropical thermal potentials on land.

Understanding how temperature determines the distribution of life is necessary to assess species' sensitivities to contemporary climate change. Here, we test the importance of temperature in limiting the geographic ranges of ectotherms by comparing the temperatures and areas that species occupy to the temperatures and areas species could potentially occupy on the basis of their physiological thermal tolerances. We find that marine species across all latitudes and terrestrial species from the tropics occupy temperatures that closely match their thermal tolerances. However, terrestrial species from temperate and polar latitudes are absent from warm, thermally tolerable areas that they could potentially occupy beyond their equatorward range limits, indicating that extreme temperature is often not the factor limiting their distributions at lower latitudes. This matches predictions from the hypothesis that adaptation to cold environments that facilitates survival in temperate and polar regions is associated with a performance trade-off that reduces species' abilities to contend in the tropics, possibly due to biotic exclusion. Our findings predict more direct responses to climate warming of marine ranges and cool range edges of terrestrial species.

Oceanographic connectivity explains the intra-specific diversity of mangrove forests at global scales.

The distribution of mangrove intra-specific biodiversity can be structured by historical demographic processes that enhance or limit effective population sizes. Oceanographic connectivity (OC) may further structure intra-specific biodiversity by preserving or diluting the genetic signatures of historical changes. Despite its relevance for biogeography and evolution, the role of oceanographic connectivity in structuring the distribution of mangrove's genetic diversity has not been addressed at global scale. Here we ask whether connectivity mediated by ocean currents explains the intra-specific diversity of mangroves. A comprehensive dataset of population genetic differentiation was compiled from the literature. Multigenerational connectivity and population centrality indices were estimated with biophysical modeling coupled with network analyses. The variability explained in genetic differentiation was tested with competitive regression models built upon classical isolation-by-distance (IBD) models considering geographic distance. We show that oceanographic connectivity can explain the genetic differentiation of mangrove populations regardless of the species, region, and genetic marker (significant regression models in 95% of cases, with an average R-square of 0.44 ± 0.23 and Person's correlation of 0.65 ± 0.17), systematically improving IBD models. Centrality indices, providing information on important stepping-stone sites between biogeographic regions, were also important in explaining differentiation (R-square improvement of 0.06 ± 0.07, up to 0.42). We further show that ocean currents produce skewed dispersal kernels for mangroves, highlighting the role of rare long-distance dispersal events responsible for historical settlements. Overall, we demonstrate the role of oceanographic connectivity in structuring mangrove intra-specific diversity. Our findings are critical for mangroves' biogeography and evolution, but also for management strategies considering climate change and genetic biodiversity conservation.

Reduced neutralization against Delta, Gamma, Mu, and Omicron BA.1 variants of SARS-CoV-2 from previous non-Omicron infection.

The understanding of the host immune response to SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern is critical for improving diagnostics, therapy development, and vaccines. Here, we analyzed the level of neutralizing antibodies against SARS-CoV-2 D614G, Delta, Gamma, Mu, and Omicron variants in D614G infected healthcare workers during a follow-up up to 6 months after recovery. We followed up 76 patients: 60.5% were women and 39.5% men. The 96.1% and 3.9% were symptomatic and asymptomatic, respectively. The most frequent symptoms were headache, myalgia, and cough. The 65.8%, 65.8%, and 92.1% of the infected individuals were positive for neutralizing antibodies against D614G variant at 2, 4, and 6 months of follow-up, respectively. The 26.3%, 48.7% and 65.8% of patients neutralized Delta variant, 19.7%, 32.9% and 52.6% of patients neutralized Gamma, 7.9%, 19.7% and 44.7% of patients neutralized Mu, and 4.0%, 9.2% and 15.8% of patients neutralized Omicron. Low neutralization against Gamma and Mu variants was observed during the follow-up, and very low against the Omicron variant was detected during the same period. The median of neutralizing antibody titers against D614G and Delta variants increased significantly during the follow-up. An association was observed between the levels of neutralizing antibodies against D614G and Delta variants and the severity of the disease. Our results suggest an immune escape from neutralizing antibodies with the Omicron variant because of the many mutations localized in the S protein.

Human disturbances affect the topology of food webs.

Networks describe nodes connected by links, with numbers of links per node, the degree, forming a range of distributions including random and scale-free. How network topologies emerge in natural systems still puzzles scientists. Based on previous theoretical simulations, we predict that scale-free food webs are favourably selected by random disturbances while random food webs are selected by targeted disturbances. We assume that lower human pressures are more likely associated with random disturbances, whereas higher pressures are associated with targeted ones. We examine these predictions using 351 empirical food webs, generally confirming our predictions. Should the topology of food webs respond to changes in the magnitude of disturbances in a predictable fashion, consistently across ecosystems and scales of organisation, it would provide a baseline expectation to understand and predict the consequences of human pressures on ecosystem dynamics.

Potential for invasion of traded birds under climate and land-cover change.

Humans have moved species away from their native ranges since the Neolithic, but globalization accelerated the rate at which species are being moved. We fitted more than half million distribution models for 610 traded bird species on the CITES list to examine the separate and joint effects of global climate and land-cover change on their potential end-of-century distributions. We found that climate-induced suitability for modelled invasive species increases with latitude, because traded birds are mainly of tropical origin and much of the temperate region is 'tropicalizing.' Conversely, the tropics are becoming more arid, thus limiting the potential from cross-continental invasion by tropical species. This trend is compounded by forest loss around the tropics since most traded birds are forest dwellers. In contrast, net gains in forest area across the temperate region could compound climate change effects and increase the potential for colonization of low-latitude birds. Climate change has always led to regional redistributions of species, but the combination of human transportation, climate, and land-cover changes will likely accelerate the redistribution of species globally, increasing chances of alien species successfully invading non-native lands. Such process of biodiversity homogenization can lead to emergence of non-analogue communities with unknown environmental and socioeconomic consequences.

Exploring the Effects of Geopolitical Shifts on Global Wildlife Trade.

International wildlife trade is a major driver of species extinction and biological invasions. Anticipating environmental risks requires inferences about trade patterns, which are shaped by geopolitics. Although the future cannot be predicted, scenarios can help deal with the uncertainty of future geopolitical dynamics. We propose a framework for generating and analyzing scenarios based on four geopolitical storylines, distinguished by combinations of international trade barrier strength and domestic law enforcement degree across countries supplying and demanding wildlife. We then use historical data on bird trade to classify countries into geopolitical profiles and confirm that trade barriers and law enforcement allow predicting bird trade patterns, supporting our scenarios' plausibility and enabling projections for future global bird trade. Our framework can be used to examine the consequences of geopolitical changes for wildlife trade and to advise policy and legislation. Reducing demand for wildlife and ameliorating global inequality are key for curbing trade related risks.

Dispersal abilities favor commensalism in animal-plant interactions under climate change.

Scientists still poorly understand how biotic interactions and dispersal limitation jointly interact and affect the ability of species to track suitable habitats under climate change. Here, we examine how animal-plant interactions and dispersal limitations might affect the responses of Brazil nut-dependent frogs facing projected climate change. Using ecological niche modelling and dispersal simulations, we forecast the future distributions of the Brazil nut tree and three commensalist frog species over time (2030, 2050, 2070, and 2090) in the regional rivalry (SSP370) scenario that includes great challenges to mitigation and adaptation. With the exception of one species, projections point to a decrease in suitable habitats of up to 40.6%. For frog species with potential reductions of co-occurrence areas, this is expected to reduce up to 23.8% of suitable areas for binomial animal-plant relationships. Even so, biotic interactions should not be lost over time. Species will depend on their own dispersal abilities to reach analogous climates in the future for maintaining ecological and evolutionary processes associated with commensal taxa. However, ecological and evolutionary processes associated with commensal taxa should be maintained in accordance with their own dispersal ability. When dispersal limitation is included in the models, the suitable range of all three frog species is reduced considerably by the end of the century. This highlights the importance of dispersal limitation inclusion for forecasting future distribution ranges when biotic interactions matter.

Impacts of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic on the global demand for exotic pets: An expert elicitation approach.

The SARS-CoV-2 pandemic has caused immense social and economic costs worldwide. Most experts endorse the view that the virus has a zoonotic origin with the final spillover being associated with wildlife trade. Besides human consumption, wild animals are also extensively traded as pets. Information on zoonotic diseases has been reported to reduce consumer demand for exotic pets. We conducted a global survey and collected 162 responses from international experts on exotic pet trade (traders, academics, NGOs, enforcement entities) to understand how the legal and illegal trade of exotic pets is expected to be affected by the ongoing coronavirus pandemic. Our results suggest that legal purchase of exotic pets is perceived as decreasing during the first pandemic wave due to: lower availability of animals for trade, suppliers' inability to reach consumers and social distancing measures. The general perception is that in the future (i.e., next five years), both demand and supply of legally traded exotic pets are expected to either remain unchanged or decrease only temporarily. The consumer demand for illegal exotic pets is also expected to remain unchanged following the outbreak. The top two challenges reported by respondents, when considering the consequences of the pandemic for the exotic pet trade, are inadequate enforcement of national regulations and increased illegal trade. Our results suggest that the negative consequences of a zoonotic outbreak may not dissuade consumers of exotic pets. Worldwide, the transit/storing conditions and lack of health screenings of traded live animals are conducive to spreading diseases. Consumer demand is a key driver of trade, and enforcement of trade regulations will remain challenging, unless factors driving consumer demand are adequately incorporated in problem-solving frameworks. We emphasize the complexity of trade dynamics and the need to go beyond bans on wildlife trade. Stronger law enforcement, implemented along with initiatives dissuading consumption of wild exotic pets, are essential to sustainably satisfy the market demand.

On the development of a regional climate change adaptation plan: Integrating model-assisted projections and stakeholders' perceptions.

Climate change is expected to have strong social-ecological implications, with global but especially regional and local challenges. To assess the climatic vulnerability of a given territory, it is necessary to evaluate its exposure to climate change and its adaptive capacity. This study describes the development of an Action Plan for Adapting to Climate Change in the Tâmega and Sousa Region, a mountainous inter-municipal community in the North of Portugal. The goals were to identify the main impacts of climate change on water resources, agriculture, forests, biodiversity, and socioeconomic sectors, as well as to develop a plan, merging local and scientific knowledge through a transdisciplinary lens. This study describes an approach that combines modelling methods, applied in the different sectors, and participatory methods, based on the analysis of the perceptions of local actors. Results indicate that the target region will experience a generalized increase in temperature and a decrease in precipitation, which will negatively impact all studied social-ecological dimensions. Overall, local business and institutional agents perceive the primary and tourism sectors as the most vulnerable in the region. The described framework demonstrates the engagement process between relevant scientific experts and local practitioners, as well as how it is critical to understand the impacts of climate change and to support the co-design of an adaptation plan, which in turn can guide political and economic decision-making towards effective implementation of the plan. In addition, the difficulties and challenges encountered during this process are discussed to support future plans and strategies for local adaptation.

Response of an Afro-Palearctic bird migrant to glaciation cycles.

Migration allows animals to exploit spatially separated and seasonally available resources at a continental to global scale. However, responding to global climatic changes might prove challenging, especially for long-distance intercontinental migrants. During glacial periods, when conditions became too harsh for breeding in the north, avian migrants have been hypothesized to retract their distribution to reside within small refugial areas. Here, we present data showing that an Afro-Palearctic migrant continued seasonal migration, largely within Africa, during previous glacial-interglacial cycles with no obvious impact on population size. Using individual migratory track data to hindcast monthly bioclimatic habitat availability maps through the last 120,000 y, we show altered seasonal use of suitable areas through time. Independently derived effective population sizes indicate a growing population through the last 40,000 y. We conclude that the migratory lifestyle enabled adaptation to shifting climate conditions. This indicates that populations of resource-tracking, long-distance migratory species could expand successfully during warming periods in the past, which could also be the case under future climate scenarios.

Prediction of Cardiorespiratory Fitness in Czech Adults: Normative Values and Association with Cardiometabolic Health.

Cardiorespiratory fitness (CRF) is a strong independent predictor of morbidity and mortality. However, there is no recent information about the impact of CRF on cardiometabolic risk specifically in Central and Eastern Europe, which are characterized by different biological and social determinants of health. In this cross-sectional study normative CRF values were proposed and the association between CRF and cardiometabolic outcomes was evaluated in an adult Czechian population. In 2054 participants (54.6% females), median age 48 (IQR 19 years), the CRF was predicted from a non-exercise equation. Multivariable-adjusted logistic regressions were carried out to determine the associations. Higher CRF quartiles were associated with lower prevalence of hypertension, type 2 diabetes (T2D) and dyslipidemia. Comparing subjects within the lowest CRF, we see that those within the highest CRF had decreased chances of hypertension (odds ratio (OR) = 0.36; 95% CI: 0.22-0.60); T2D (OR = 0.16; 0.05-0.47), low HDL-c (OR = 0.32; 0.17-0.60), high low-density lipoprotein (OR = 0.33; 0.21-0.53), high triglycerides (OR = 0.13; 0.07-0.81), and high cholesterol (OR = 0.44; 0.29-0.69). There was an inverse association between CRF and cardiometabolic outcomes, supporting the adoption of a non-exercise method to estimate CRF of the Czech population. Therefore, more accurate cardiometabolic studies can be performed incorporating the valuable CRF metric.

Quirúrgico de plagiocefalia anterior: reporte de caso / Surgical management of anterior plagiocephaly: case report / Tratamento cirúrgico da plagiocefalia anterior: relato de caso

Craniosynostosis is the premature, abnormal, and non-physiological fusion of one or more cranial sutures. Its etiology can be multifactorial and genetic factors, bone abnormalities or environmental factors may be involved. Among the different types of craniosynostosis we can find anterior plagiocephaly, which generally corresponds to a non-syndromic craniosynostosis and which can affect the patient in a physiological and aesthetic way. Hemi-coronal sutures are affected in this condition. The treatment will depend on each case, although many times it is usually the surgical choice in order to prevent functional deterioration and improve the facial and cranial appearance... (AU)

La craneosinostosis es la fusión prematura, anormal y no fisiológica de una o más suturas craneales. Su etiología puede ser multifactorial y pueden estar involucrados factores genéticos, anormalidades propias del hueso o factores ambientales. Dentro de los diferentes tipos de craneosinostosis podemos encontrar a la plagiocefalia anterior, que corresponde generalmente a una craneosinostosis no sindrómica y que cual puede afectar de manera fisiológica y estética al paciente. Las suturas hemi-coronales se ven afectadas en dicha condición. El tratamiento dependerá de cada caso, aunque muchas de las veces suele ser de elección quirúrgica con el fin de prevenir el deterioro funcional y mejorar el aspecto facial y craneal... (AU)

Craniossinostose é a fusão prematura, anormal e não fisiológica de uma ou mais suturas cranianas. Sua etiologia pode ser multifatorial e fatores genéticos, anormalidades ósseas ou fatores ambientais podem estar envolvidos. Entre os diferentes tipos de craniossinostose podemos encontrar a plagiocefalia anterior, que geralmente corresponde a uma craniossinostose não sindrômica e que pode afetar o paciente de forma fisiológica e estética. Suturas hemicoronais são afetadas nessa condição. O tratamento dependerá de cada caso, embora muitas vezes seja a escolha cirúrgica para prevenir deterioração funcional e melhorar o aspecto facial e cranial... (AU)

Improvements in reports of species redistribution under climate change are required.

Studies have documented climate change-induced shifts in species distributions but uncertainties associated with data and methods are typically unexplored. We reviewed 240 reports of climate-related species-range shifts and classified them based on three criteria. We ask whether observed distributional shifts are compared against random expectations, whether multicausal factors are examined on equal footing, and whether studies provide sufficient documentation to enable replication. We found that only ~12.1% of studies compare distributional shifts across multiple directions, ~1.6% distinguish observed patterns from random expectations, and ~19.66% examine multicausal factors. Last, ~75.5% of studies report sufficient data and results to allow replication. We show that despite gradual improvements over time, there is scope for raising standards in data and methods within reports of climate-change induced shifts in species distribution. Accurate reporting is important because policy responses depend on them. Flawed assessments can fuel criticism and divert scarce resources for biodiversity to competing priorities.

The evolution of critical thermal limits of life on Earth.

Understanding how species' thermal limits have evolved across the tree of life is central to predicting species' responses to climate change. Here, using experimentally-derived estimates of thermal tolerance limits for over 2000 terrestrial and aquatic species, we show that most of the variation in thermal tolerance can be attributed to a combination of adaptation to current climatic extremes, and the existence of evolutionary 'attractors' that reflect either boundaries or optima in thermal tolerance limits. Our results also reveal deep-time climate legacies in ectotherms, whereby orders that originated in cold paleoclimates have presently lower cold tolerance limits than those with warm thermal ancestry. Conversely, heat tolerance appears unrelated to climate ancestry. Cold tolerance has evolved more quickly than heat tolerance in endotherms and ectotherms. If the past tempo of evolution for upper thermal limits continues, adaptive responses in thermal limits will have limited potential to rescue the large majority of species given the unprecedented rate of contemporary climate change.

Discriminating climate, land-cover and random effects on species range dynamics.

Species are reportedly shifting their distributions poleward and upward in several parts of the world in response to climate change. The extent to which other factors might play a role driving these changes is still unclear. Land-cover change is a major cause of distributional changes, but it cannot be discarded that distributional dynamics might be at times caused by other mechanisms (e.g. dispersal, ecological drift). Using observed changes in the distribution of 82 breeding birds in Great Britain between three time periods 1968-72 (t1 ), 1988-91 (t2 ) and 2007-2011 (t3 ), we examine whether observed bird range shifts between t1 -t2 and t1 -t3 are best explained by climate change or land-cover change, or whether they are not distinguishable from what would be expected by chance. We found that range shifts across the rear edge of northerly distributed species in Great Britain are best explained by climate change, while shifts across the leading edge of southerly distributed species are best explained by changes in land-cover. In contrast, at the northern and southern edges of Great Britain, range dynamics could not be distinguished from that expected by chance. The latter observation could be a consequence of boundary effects limiting the direction and magnitude of range changes, stochastic demographic mechanisms neither associated with climate nor land-cover change or with complex interactions among factors. Our results reinforce the view that comprehensive assessments of climate change effects on species range shifts need to examine alternative drivers of change on equal footing and that null models can help assess whether observed patterns could have arisen by chance alone.

Application of near-infrared hyperspectral (NIR) images combined with multivariate image analysis in the differentiation of two mycotoxicogenic Fusarium species associated with maize.

Maize (Zea mays L.) is one of the most versatile crops worldwide with high socioeconomic relevance. However, mycotoxins produced by pathogenic fungi are of constant concern in maize production, as they pose serious risks to human and animal health. Thus, the search for rapid detection and/or identification methods for mycotoxins and mycotoxin-producing fungi for application in food safety remain important. In this work, we implemented use of near infrared hyperspectral images (HSI-NIR) combined with pattern recognition analysis, partial-least-squares discriminant analysis (PLS-DA) of images, to develop a rapid method for identification of Fusarium verticillioides and F. graminearum. Validation of the HSI-NIR method and subsequent analysis was realized using 15 Fusarium spp. isolates. The method was efficient as a rapid, non-invasive, and non-destructive assessment was achieved with 100% accuracy, sensitivity, and specificity for both fungi.