The Italian registry of families at risk for pancreatic cancer (IRFARPC): implementation and evolution of a national program for pancreatic cancer surveillance in high-risk individuals.

Screening programs for early detection and treatment of pancreatic cancer (PC) and its precursor lesions are increasingly implemented worldwide to reduce disease-specific lethality. Given the relatively low prevalence of the disease, the ideal target of such approaches is an enriched cohort of individuals harboring a lifetime risk of developing PC significantly higher compared to the general population, given either a substantial aggregation of PC cases in their family (i.e. familial pancreatic cancer) or a genomic landscape enriched with pathogenic variants associated with pancreatic carcinogenesis (i.e. mutation carriers). In Italy, a national registry for the census and surveillance of high-risk individuals for PC was launched in 2015, enrolling some 1200 subjects as of today. In this perspective, the scientific background, multi-level structure, and evolution of IRFARPC are outlined, as well as its long-term results, future developments, and areas for improvement.

Communication, understanding and engagement of patients with pancreatic cancer at time of diagnosis.

BACKGROUND: Objectives: To investigate communication clarity and understanding at the time of pancreatic adenocarcinoma (PDAC) diagnosis and whether they can influence patient engagement and compliance. METHODS: Consecutive PDAC patients were enrolled at the time of diagnosis after obtaining informed consent in a single-center study. The patients completed a validated scale (PHE-s®), and the understanding rate was assessed using standardized tools. Patient compliance was evaluated, and the correlation between the PHE-s®, understanding, and compliance was calculated. RESULTS: Thirty patients were enrolled (15 female) with a mean age 64.4, 13 were metastatic. The mean visit time was 31 min, being longer if visiting doctor was an oncologist (p = 0.002). The engagement level was high in 70% of the patients, and all but one were compliant. The analysis of doctor-patient interactions showed a median of 121 conversational turns for doctors, 75 for patients, and 20 for caregivers (p < 0.0001), and the median percentage of speaking time was 77% for doctors, 13% for patients, and 2% for caregivers (p < 0.0001). Female caregivers spent more time speaking than did male caregivers (median 11.6% vs. 1.3%; p = 0.06). There were 290 instances of problematic understanding, most of which occurred during the taking of patients' personal medical history for doctors, while for patients and caregivers, these occurred mainly during the discussion of diagnosis/treatment (p < 0.0001). In a multivariable analysis, only origin from central or southern Italy was associated with high engagement (p = 0.0087). CONCLUSION: In this first attempt to measure clarity of communication and engagement in patients with PDAC, typical features of conversation and problematic understanding emerged, which deserves further investigation.

Endoscopic Management of Difficult Biliary Stones: An Evergreen Issue.

Choledocholithiasis is one of the most common indications for endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography (ERCP) in daily practice. Although the majority of stones are small and can be easily removed in a single endoscopy session, approximately 10-15% of patients have complex biliary stones, requiring additional procedures for an optimum clinical outcome. A plethora of endoscopic methods is available for the removal of difficult biliary stones, including papillary large balloon dilation, mechanical lithotripsy, and electrohydraulic and laser lithotripsy. In-depth knowledge of these techniques and the emerging literature on them is required to yield the most optimal therapeutic effects. This narrative review aims to describe the definition of difficult bile duct stones based on certain characteristics and streamline their endoscopic retrieval using various modalities to achieve higher clearance rates.

Same-session endoscopic diagnosis and symptom palliation in pancreato-biliary malignancies: Clinical impact of rapid on-site evaluation (ROSE).

Background and study aims Besides increasing adequacy, rapid on-site evaluation (ROSE) during endoscopic ultrasound (EUS) or endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography (ERCP) may impact choices and timing of subsequent therapeutic procedures, yet has been unexplored. Patients and methods This was a retrospective evaluation of a prospectively maintained database of a tertiary, academic centre with availability of ROSE and hybrid EUS-ERCP suites. All consecutive patients referred for pathological confirmation of suspected malignancy and jaundice or gastric outlet obstruction (GOO) between Jan-2020 and Sep-2022 were included. Results Of 541 patients with underlying malignancy, 323 (59.7%) required same-session pathological diagnosis (male: 54.8%; age 70 [interquartile range 63-78]; pancreatic cancer: 76.8%, biliary tract adenocarcinoma 16.1%). ROSE adequacy was 96.6%, higher for EUS versus ERCP. Among 302 patients with jaundice, ERCP-guided stenting was successful in 83.1%, but final drainage was completed in 97.4% thanks to 43 EUS-guided biliary drainage procedures. Twenty-one patients with GOO were treated with 15 EUS-gastroenterostomies and six duodenal stents. All 58 therapeutic EUS procedures occurred after adequate ROSE. With ERCP-guided placement of stents, the use of plastic stents was significantly higher among patients with inadequate ROSE (10/11; 90.9%) versus adequate sampling (14/240; 5.8%) P <0.0001; OR 161; 95%CI 19-1352). Median hospital stay for diagnosis and palliation was 3 days (range, 2-7) and median time to chemotherapy was 33 days (range, 24-47). Conclusions Nearly two-thirds of oncological candidates for endoscopic palliation require contemporary pathological diagnosis. ROSE adequacy allows, since the index procedure, state-of-the-art therapeutics standardly restricted to pathologically confirmed malignancies (e.g. uncovered SEMS or therapeutic EUS), potentially reducing hospitalization and time to oncological treatments.

An alternative splicing signature defines the basal-like phenotype and predicts worse clinical outcome in pancreatic cancer.

Pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) is characterized by extremely poor prognosis. PDAC presents with molecularly distinct subtypes, with the basal-like one being associated with enhanced chemoresistance. Splicing dysregulation contributes to PDAC; however, its involvement in subtype specification remains elusive. Herein, we uncover a subtype-specific splicing signature associated with prognosis in PDAC and the splicing factor Quaking (QKI) as a determinant of the basal-like signature. Single-cell sequencing analyses highlight QKI as a marker of the basal-like phenotype. QKI represses splicing events associated with the classical subtype while promoting basal-like events associated with shorter survival. QKI favors a plastic, quasi-mesenchymal phenotype that supports migration and chemoresistance in PDAC organoids and cell lines, and its expression is elevated in high-grade primary tumors and metastatic lesions. These studies identify a splicing signature that defines PDAC subtypes and indicate that QKI promotes an undifferentiated, plastic phenotype, which renders PDAC cells chemoresistant and adaptable to environmental changes.

Polymorphisms in transcription factor binding sites and enhancer regions and pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma risk.

Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) are a powerful tool for detecting variants associated with complex traits and can help risk stratification and prevention strategies against pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC). However, the strict significance threshold commonly used makes it likely that many true risk loci are missed. Functional annotation of GWAS polymorphisms is a proven strategy to identify additional risk loci. We aimed to investigate single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNP) in regulatory regions [transcription factor binding sites (TFBSs) and enhancers] that could change the expression profile of multiple genes they act upon and thereby modify PDAC risk. We analyzed a total of 12,636 PDAC cases and 43,443 controls from PanScan/PanC4 and the East Asian GWAS (discovery populations), and the PANDoRA consortium (replication population). We identified four associations that reached study-wide statistical significance in the overall meta-analysis: rs2472632(A) (enhancer variant, OR 1.10, 95%CI 1.06,1.13, p = 5.5 × 10-8), rs17358295(G) (enhancer variant, OR 1.16, 95%CI 1.10,1.22, p = 6.1 × 10-7), rs2232079(T) (TFBS variant, OR 0.88, 95%CI 0.83,0.93, p = 6.4 × 10-6) and rs10025845(A) (TFBS variant, OR 1.88, 95%CI 1.50,1.12, p = 1.32 × 10-5). The SNP with the most significant association, rs2472632, is located in an enhancer predicted to target the coiled-coil domain containing 34 oncogene. Our results provide new insights into genetic risk factors for PDAC by a focused analysis of polymorphisms in regulatory regions and demonstrating the usefulness of functional prioritization to identify loci associated with PDAC risk.

Outcomes of a 3-Year Prospective Surveillance in Individuals at High Risk of Pancreatic Cancer.

INTRODUCTION: Pancreatic cancer (PC) surveillance of high-risk individuals (HRI) is becoming more common worldwide, aiming at anticipating PC diagnosis at a preclinical stage. In 2015, the Italian Registry of Families at Risk of Pancreatic Cancer was created. We aimed to assess the prevalence and incidence of pancreatic findings, oncological outcomes, and harms 7 years after the Italian Registry of Families at Risk of Pancreatic Cancer inception, focusing on individuals with at least a 3-year follow-up or developing events before. METHODS: HRI (subjects with a family history or mutation carriers with/without a family history were enrolled in 18 centers). They underwent annual magnetic resonance with cholangiopancreatography or endoscopic ultrasound (NCT04095195). RESULTS: During the study period (June 2015-September 2022), 679 individuals were enrolled. Of these, 524 (77.2%) underwent at least baseline imaging, and 156 (29.8%) with at least a 3-year follow-up or pancreatic malignancy/premalignancy-related events, and represented the study population. The median age was 51 (interquartile range 16) years. Familial PC cases accounted for 81.4% of HRI and individuals with pathogenic variant for 18.6%. Malignant (n = 8) and premalignant (1 PanIN3) lesions were found in 9 individuals. Five of these 8 cases occurred in pathogenic variant carriers, 4 in familial PC cases (2 tested negative at germline testing and 2 others were not tested). Three of the 8 PC were stage I. Five of the 8 PC were resectable, 3 Stage I, all advanced cases being prevalent. The 1-, 2-, and 3-year cumulative hazard of PC was 1.7%, 2.5%, and 3%, respectively. Median overall and disease-free survival of patients with resected PC were 18 and 12 months (95% CI not computable). Considering HRI who underwent baseline imaging, 6 pancreatic neuroendocrine neoplasms (1 resected) and 1 low-yield surgery (low-grade mixed-intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasm) were also reported. DISCUSSION: PC surveillance in a fully public health care system is feasible and safe, and leads to early PC or premalignant lesions diagnoses, mostly at baseline but also over time.

Surveillance of Individuals at High Risk of Developing Pancreatic Cancer: A Prevalence Meta-analysis to Estimate the Rate of Low-yield Surgery.

OBJECTIVE: To quantify the rate of low-yield surgery, defined as no high-grade dysplastic precursor lesions or T1N0M0 pancreatic cancer at pathology, during pancreatic cancer surveillance. BACKGROUND: Global efforts have been made in pancreatic cancer surveillance to anticipate the diagnosis of pancreatic cancer at an early stage and improve survival in high-risk individuals (HRIs) with a hereditary predisposition. The negative impact of pancreatic cancer surveillance when surgery is performed for low-grade dysplasia or a non-neoplastic condition is not well quantified. MATERIALS AND METHODS: A systematic search and prevalence meta-analysis was performed for studies reporting surgery with final diagnoses other than those defined by the Cancer of the Pancreas Screening (CAPS) goals from January 2000 to July 2023. The secondary outcome was the pooled proportion of final diagnoses matching the CAPS goals (PROSPERO: #CRD42022300408). RESULTS: Twenty-three articles with 5027 patients (median 109 patients/study, interquartile range 251) were included. The pooled prevalence of low-yield surgery was 2.1% (95% CI: 0.9-3.7, I2 : 83%). In the subgroup analysis, this prevalence was nonsignificantly higher in studies that only included familial pancreatic cancer subjects without known pathogenic variants, compared with those enrolling pathogenic variant carriers. No effect modifiers were found. Overall, the pooled prevalence of subjects under surveillance who had a pancreatic resection that contained target lesions was 0.8% (95% CI, 0.3-1.5, I2 : 24%]. The temporal analysis showed that the rate of low-yield surgeries decreased in the last decades and stabilized at around 1% (test for subgroup differences P <0.01). CONCLUSIONS: The risk of "low-yield" surgery during pancreatic cancer surveillance is relatively low but should be thoroughly discussed with individuals under surveillance.

Managing complications of chronic pancreatitis: a guide for the gastroenterologist.

INTRODUCTION: Chronic pancreatitis is a heterogeneous and complex syndrome that, in most cases, causes pain as a cardinal symptom and affects both the morphology and function of the pancreas, leading to several serious complications. AREAS COVERED: The present review, based on a non-systematic PubMed search updated to June 2023, aims to present the current available evidence on the role of gastroenterologists in the diagnosis and treatment of both local and systemic complications by either endoscopic or medical treatments. EXPERT OPINION: At diagnosis and during chronic pancreatitis follow-up, particular care is needed to consider not only the clinically manifest signs and symptoms of the disease, such as pain, jaundice, gastrointestinal obstruction, and pseudocysts, which require multidisciplinary discussion to establish the best treatment option (endoscopic or surgical), but also less evident systemic complications. Pancreatic exocrine and endocrine insufficiency, together with chronic inflammation, addiction, and dysbiosis, contribute to malnutrition, sarcopenia, and osteopathy. These complications, in turn, increase the risk of infection, thromboembolic events, and death. Patients with chronic pancreatitis also have an increased risk of psychiatric disorders and pancreatic cancer onset. Overall, patients with chronic pancreatitis should receive a holistic evaluation, considering all these aspects, possibly through multidisciplinary care in dedicated expert centers.

Clinical usefulness of scoring systems to predict severe acute pancreatitis: A systematic review and meta-analysis with pre and post-test probability assessment.

BACKGROUND: Scoring systems for severe acute pancreatitis (SAP) prediction should be used in conjunction with pre-test probability to establish post-test probability of SAP, but data of this kind are lacking. OBJECTIVE: To investigate the predictive value of commonly employed scoring systems and their usefulness in modifying the pre-test probability of SAP. METHODS: Following PRISMA statement and MOOSE checklists after PROSPERO registration, PubMed was searched from inception until September 2022. Retrospective, prospective, cross-sectional studies or clinical trials on patients with acute pancreatitis defined as Revised Atlanta Criteria, reporting rate of SAP and using at least one score among Bedside Index for Severity in Acute Pancreatitis (BISAP), Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Examination (APACHE)-II, RANSON, and Systemic Inflammatory Response Syndrome (SIRS) with their sensitivity and specificity were included. Random effects model meta-analyses were performed. Pre-test probability and likelihood ratio (LR) were combined to estimate post-test probability on Fagan nomograms. Pooled severity rate was used as pre-test probability of SAP and pooled sensitivity and specificity to calculate LR and generate post-test probability. A priori hypotheses for heterogeneity were developed and sensitivity analyses planned. RESULTS: 43 studies yielding 14,116 acute pancreatitis patients were included: 42 with BISAP, 30 with APACHE-II, 27 with Ranson, 8 with SIRS. Pooled pre-test probability of SAP ranged 16.6%-25.3%. The post-test probability of SAP with positive/negative score was 47%/6% for BISAP, 43%/5% for APACHE-II, 48%/5% for Ranson, 40%/12% for SIRS. In 18 studies comparing BISAP, APACHE-II, and Ranson in 6740 patients with pooled pre-test probability of SAP of 18.7%, post-test probability when scores were positive was 48% for BISAP, 46% for APACHE-II, 50% for Ranson. When scores were negative, post-test probability dropped to 7% for BISAP, 6% for Ranson, 5% for APACHE-II. Quality, design, and country of origin of the studies did not explain the observed high heterogeneity. CONCLUSIONS: The most commonly used scoring systems to predict SAP perform poorly and do not aid in decision-making.

A scan of all coding region variants of the human genome, identifies 13q12.2-rs9579139 and 15q24.1-rs2277598 as novel risk loci for pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma.

Coding sequence variants comprise a small fraction of the germline genetic variability of the human genome. However, they often cause deleterious change in protein function and are therefore associated with pathogenic phenotypes. To identify novel pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) risk loci, we carried out a complete scan of all common missense and synonymous SNPs and analysed them in a case-control study comprising four different populations, for a total of 14 538 PDAC cases and 190 657 controls. We observed a statistically significant association between 13q12.2-rs9581957-T and PDAC risk (P = 2.46 × 10-9), that is in linkage disequilibrium (LD) with a deleterious missense variant (rs9579139) of the URAD gene. Recent findings suggest that this gene is active in peroxisomes. Considering that peroxisomes have a key role as molecular scavengers, especially in eliminating reactive oxygen species, a malfunctioning URAD protein might expose the cell to a higher load of potentially DNA damaging molecules and therefore increase PDAC risk. The association was observed in individuals of European and Asian ethnicity. We also observed the association of the missense variant 15q24.1-rs2277598-T, that belongs to BBS4 gene, with increased PDAC risk (P = 1.53 × 10-6). rs2277598 is associated with body mass index and is in LD with diabetes susceptibility loci. In conclusion, we identified two missense variants associated with the risk of developing PDAC independently from the ethnicity highlighting the importance of conducting reanalysis of genome-wide association studies (GWASs) in light of functional data.

Giardia lamblia Infection in a Duodenal Duplication Cyst as a Potential Cause of Recurrent Acute Pancreatitis.

Giardia lamblia is a known etiological factor of a common infectious diarrhea. In rare cases, this parasite was found to be involved in the development of pancreatic and biliary tract diseases, both inflammatory and neoplastic. We present a case of a 64-year-old man known for a duodenal duplication cyst since 2013, with episodes of recurrent acute pancreatitis since 2017. He underwent endoscopic ultrasound-guided fine-needle aspiration of the duplication cyst, with evidence of G. lamblia infection. After treatment of giardiasis and evidence of parasite eradication, the episodes of recurrent acute pancreatitis ceased, following an ex adiuvantibus criterium.

Polymorphic variants involved in methylation regulation: a strategy to discover risk loci for pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma.

INTRODUCTION: Only a small number of risk factors for pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) has been established. Several studies identified a role of epigenetics and of deregulation of DNA methylation. DNA methylation is variable across a lifetime and in different tissues; nevertheless, its levels can be regulated by genetic variants like methylation quantitative trait loci (mQTLs), which can be used as a surrogate. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We scanned the whole genome for mQTLs and performed an association study in 14 705 PDAC cases and 246 921 controls. The methylation data were obtained from whole blood and pancreatic cancer tissue through online databases. We used the Pancreatic Cancer Cohort Consortium and the Pancreatic Cancer Case-Control Consortium genome-wide association study (GWAS) data as discovery phase and the Pancreatic Disease Research consortium, the FinnGen project and the Japan Pancreatic Cancer Research consortium GWAS as replication phase. RESULTS: The C allele of 15q26.1-rs12905855 showed an association with a decreased risk of PDAC (OR=0.90, 95% CI 0.87 to 0.94, p=4.93×10-8 in the overall meta-analysis), reaching genome-level statistical significance. 15q26.1-rs12905855 decreases the methylation of a 'C-phosphate-G' (CpG) site located in the promoter region of the RCCD1 antisense (RCCD1-AS1) gene which, when expressed, decreases the expression of the RCC1 domain-containing (RCCD1) gene (part of a histone demethylase complex). Thus, it is possible that the rs12905855 C-allele has a protective role in PDAC development through an increase of RCCD1 gene expression, made possible by the inactivity of RCCD1-AS1. CONCLUSION: We identified a novel PDAC risk locus which modulates cancer risk by controlling gene expression through DNA methylation.

EUS-Guided Choledocho-duodenostomy Using Lumen Apposing Stent Versus ERCP With Covered Metallic Stents in Patients With Unresectable Malignant Distal Biliary Obstruction: A Multicenter Randomized Controlled Trial (DRA-MBO Trial).

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Several studies have compared primary endoscopic ultrasound (EUS)-guided biliary drainage to endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography (ERCP) with insertion of metal stents in unresectable malignant distal biliary obstruction (MDBO) and the results were conflicting. The aim of the current study was to compare the outcomes of the procedures in a large-scale study. METHODS: This was a multicenter international randomized controlled study. Consecutive patients admitted for obstructive jaundice due to unresectable MDBO were recruited. Patients were randomly allocated to receive EUS-guided choledocho-duodenostomy (ECDS) or ERCP for drainage. The primary outcome was the 1-year stent patency rate. Other outcomes included technical success, clinical success, adverse events, time to stent dysfunction, reintervention rates, and overall survival. RESULTS: Between January 2017 and February 2021, 155 patients were recruited (ECDS 79, ERCP 76). There were no significant differences in 1-year stent patency rates (ECDS 91.1% vs ERCP 88.1%, P = .52). The ECDS group had significantly higher technical success (ECDS 96.2% vs ERCP 76.3%, P < .001), whereas clinical success was similar (ECDS 93.7% vs ERCP 90.8%, P = .559). The median (interquartile range) procedural time was significantly shorter in the ECDS group (ECDS 10 [5.75-18] vs ERCP 25 [14-40] minutes, P < .001). The rate of 30-day adverse events (P = 1) and 30-day mortality (P = .53) were similar. CONCLUSION: Both procedures could be options for primary biliary drainage in unresectable MDBO. ECDS was associated with higher technical success and shorter procedural time then ERCP. Primary ECDS may be preferred when difficult ERCPs are anticipated. This study was registered to Clinicaltrials.gov NCT03000855.

The role of biliary events in treatment and survival of patients with advanced pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma.

BACKGROUND: Systemic chemotherapy (CT) is the treatment of choice for advanced pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC). Biliary obstruction is common in this setting and may interfere with CT administration due to jaundice or cholangitis related to biliary stent malfunction. AIMS: To evaluate the impact of biliary events on CT administration and survival in patients with stage III-IV PDAC. METHODS: Patients enrolled in a randomized trial of nab-paclitaxel plus gemcitabine with/without capecitabine and cisplatin in advanced PDAC were included. Data on management of jaundice, biliary stents/complications and CT were prospectively collected and retrospectively analyzed. Modified overall (mOS) and progression-free (mPFS) survival were evaluated. RESULTS: Eighty-eight patients met the inclusion criteria (50% females; median age 65years). Seven of eight (87.5%) patients who placed plastic stents developed biliary complications versus 14/30 (46.7%) with metallic stents (p = 0.071). Patients without biliary complications completed planned CT in 64.2% versus 47.6% of cases (p = 0.207). CT completion was related to longer mOS (17 vs 12 months, p = 0.005) and mPFS (9 vs 6 months, p = 0.011). mOS was shorter when biliary complications occurred (12 vs 17 months, p = 0.937), as was mPFS (6 vs 8 months, p = 0.438). CONCLUSION: Complications related to biliary obstruction influence chemotherapy completion and survival in patients with advanced PDAC.

Genetic and non-genetic risk factors for early-onset pancreatic cancer.

BACKGROUND: Early-onset pancreatic cancer (EOPC) represents 5-10% of all pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) cases, and the etiology of this form is poorly understood. It is not clear if established PDAC risk factors have the same relevance for younger patients. This study aims to identify genetic and non-genetic risk factors specific to EOPC. METHODS: A genome-wide association study was performed, analysing 912 EOPC cases and 10 222 controls, divided into discovery and replication phases. Furthermore, the associations between a polygenic risk score (PRS), smoking, alcohol consumption, type 2 diabetes and PDAC risk were also assessed. RESULTS: Six novel SNPs were associated with EOPC risk in the discovery phase, but not in the replication phase. The PRS, smoking, and diabetes affected EOPC risk. The OR comparing current smokers to never-smokers was 2.92 (95% CI 1.69-5.04, P = 1.44 × 10-4). For diabetes, the corresponding OR was 14.95 (95% CI 3.41-65.50, P = 3.58 × 10-4). CONCLUSION: In conclusion, we did not identify novel genetic variants associated specifically with EOPC, and we found that established PDAC risk variants do not have a strong age-dependent effect. Furthermore, we add to the evidence pointing to the role of smoking and diabetes in EOPC.

Machine learning for the prediction of post-ERCP pancreatitis risk: A proof-of-concept study.

BACKGROUND: Predicting Post-Endoscopic Retrograde Cholangiopancreatography (ERCP) pancreatitis (PEP) risk can be determinant in reducing its incidence and managing patients appropriately, however studies conducted thus far have identified single-risk factors with standard statistical approaches and limited accuracy. AIM: To build and evaluate performances of machine learning (ML) models to predict PEP probability and identify relevant features. METHODS: A proof-of-concept study was performed on ML application on an international, multicenter, prospective cohort of ERCP patients. Data were split in training and test set, models used were gradient boosting (GB) and logistic regression (LR). A 10-split random cross-validation (CV) was applied on the training set to optimize parameters to obtain the best mean Area Under Curve (AUC). The model was re-trained on the whole training set with the best parameters and applied on test set. Shapley-Additive-exPlanation (SHAP) approach was applied to break down the model and clarify features impact. RESULTS: One thousand one hundred and fifty patients were included, 6.1% developed PEP. GB model outperformed LR with AUC in CV of 0.7 vs 0.585 (p-value=0.012). GB AUC in test was 0.671. Most relevant features for PEP prediction were: bilirubin, age, body mass index, procedure time, previous sphincterotomy, alcohol units/day, cannulation attempts, gender, gallstones, use of Ringer's solution and periprocedural NSAIDs. CONCLUSION: In PEP prediction, GB significantly outperformed LR model and identified new clinical features relevant for the risk, most being pre-procedural.

Association between a polymorphic variant in the CDKN2B-AS1/ANRIL gene and pancreatic cancer risk.

Genes carrying high-penetrance germline mutations may also be associated with cancer susceptibility through common low-penetrance genetic variants. To increase the knowledge on genetic pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) aetiology, the common genetic variability of PDAC familial genes was analysed in our study. We conducted a multiphase study analysing 7745 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) from 29 genes reported to harbour a high-penetrance PDAC-associated mutation in at least one published study. To assess the effect of the SNPs on PDAC risk, a total of 14 666 PDAC cases and 221 897 controls across five different studies were analysed. The T allele of the rs1412832 polymorphism, that is situated in the CDKN2B-AS1/ANRIL, showed a genome-wide significant association with increased risk of developing PDAC (OR = 1.11, 95% CI = 1.07-1.15, P = 5.25 × 10-9 ). CDKN2B-AS1/ANRIL is a long noncoding RNA, situated in 9p21.3, and regulates many target genes, among which CDKN2A (p16) that frequently shows deleterious somatic and germline mutations and deregulation in PDAC. Our results strongly support the role of the genetic variability of the 9p21.3 region in PDAC aetiopathogenesis and highlight the importance of secondary analysis as a tool for discovering new risk loci in complex human diseases.

Ex-vivo investigation of radiofrequency ablation in pancreatic adenocarcinoma after neoadjuvant chemotherapy.

Objective: Endoscopic ultrasound (US)-guided radiofrequency ablation (RFA) has been investigated for pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) but studies are limited and heterogeneous. Computed tomography (CT) scan features may predict RFA response after chemotherapy but their role is unexplored. The primary aim was to investigate the efficacy of ex-vivo application of a dedicated RFA system at three power on surgically resected PDAC in patients who underwent neoadjuvant chemotherapy. The secondary aim was to explore the association between pre-treatment CT-based quantitative features and RFA response. Methods: Fifteen ex-vivo PDAC samples were treated by RFA under US control at three power groups (10, 30, and 50 W). Short axis necrosis diameter was measured by two expert blinded pathologists as the primary outcome. Two radiologists independently reviewed preoperative CT images. Results: Eighty percent of specimens showed coagulative necrosis consisting of few millimeters: 5.7 ± 3.9 mm at 10 W, 3.7 ± 2.2 mm at 30 W, and 3.5 ± 2.4 mm at 50 W (p = 0.3), without a significant correlation between power setting and mean necrosis short axis (rho = -0.28; p = 0.30). Good agreement was seen between pathologists (k = 0.76; 95% confidence interval 0.55-0.98). Logistic regression analysis did not show associations between CT features and RFA response. Conclusions: RFA causes histologically evident damage with coagulative necrosis of a few millimeters in 80% of ex-vivo PDAC samples after chemotherapy and no clinical or pre-operative CT features can predict efficacy. Power settings do not correlate with the histological ablation area. These results are of relevance when employing RFA in vivo and planning clinical trials on its role in PDAC patients.