Comparison of surgical or non-surgical management for non-acute anterior cruciate ligament injury: the ACL SNNAP RCT.

Background: Anterior cruciate ligament injury of the knee is common and leads to decreased activity and risk of secondary osteoarthritis of the knee. Management of patients with a non-acute anterior cruciate ligament injury can be non-surgical (rehabilitation) or surgical (reconstruction). However, insufficient evidence exists to guide treatment. Objective(s): To determine in patients with non-acute anterior cruciate ligament injury and symptoms of instability whether a strategy of surgical management (reconstruction) without prior rehabilitation was more clinically and cost-effective than non-surgical management (rehabilitation). Design: A pragmatic, multicentre, superiority, randomised controlled trial with two-arm parallel groups and 1:1 allocation. Due to the nature of the interventions, no blinding could be carried out. Setting: Twenty-nine NHS orthopaedic units in the United Kingdom. Participants: Participants with a symptomatic (instability) non-acute anterior cruciate ligament-injured knee. Interventions: Patients in the surgical management arm underwent surgical anterior cruciate ligament reconstruction as soon as possible and without any further rehabilitation. Patients in the rehabilitation arm attended physiotherapy sessions and only were listed for reconstructive surgery on continued instability following rehabilitation. Surgery following initial rehabilitation was an expected outcome for many patients and within protocol. Main outcome measures: The primary outcome was the Knee Injury and Osteoarthritis Outcome Score 4 at 18 months post randomisation. Secondary outcomes included return to sport/activity, intervention-related complications, patient satisfaction, expectations of activity, generic health quality of life, knee-specific quality of life and resource usage. Results: Three hundred and sixteen participants were recruited between February 2017 and April 2020 with 156 randomised to surgical management and 160 to rehabilitation. Forty-one per cent (n = 65) of those allocated to rehabilitation underwent subsequent reconstruction within 18 months with 38% (n = 61) completing rehabilitation and not undergoing surgery. Seventy-two per cent (n = 113) of those allocated to surgery underwent reconstruction within 18 months. Follow-up at the primary outcome time point was 78% (n = 248; surgical, n = 128; rehabilitation, n = 120). Both groups improved over time. Adjusted mean Knee Injury and Osteoarthritis Outcome Score 4 scores at 18 months had increased to 73.0 in the surgical arm and to 64.6 in the rehabilitation arm. The adjusted mean difference was 7.9 (95% confidence interval 2.5 to 13.2; p = 0.005) in favour of surgical management. The per-protocol analyses supported the intention-to-treat results, with all treatment effects favouring surgical management at a level reaching statistical significance. There was a significant difference in Tegner Activity Score at 18 months. Sixty-eight per cent (n = 65) of surgery patients did not reach their expected activity level compared to 73% (n = 63) in the rehabilitation arm. There were no differences between groups in surgical complications (n = 1 surgery, n = 2 rehab) or clinical events (n = 11 surgery, n = 12 rehab). Of surgery patients, 82.9% were satisfied compared to 68.1% of rehabilitation patients. Health economic analysis found that surgical management led to improved health-related quality of life compared to non-surgical management (0.052 quality-adjusted life-years, p = 0.177), but with higher NHS healthcare costs (£1107, p < 0.001). The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio for the surgical management programme versus rehabilitation was £19,346 per quality-adjusted life-year gained. Using £20,000-30,000 per quality-adjusted life-year thresholds, surgical management is cost-effective in the UK setting with a probability of being the most cost-effective option at 51% and 72%, respectively. Limitations: Not all surgical patients underwent reconstruction, but this did not affect trial interpretation. The adherence to physiotherapy was patchy, but the trial was designed as pragmatic. Conclusions: Surgical management (reconstruction) for non-acute anterior cruciate ligament-injured patients was superior to non-surgical management (rehabilitation). Although physiotherapy can still provide benefit, later-presenting non-acute anterior cruciate ligament-injured patients benefit more from surgical reconstruction without delaying for a prior period of rehabilitation. Future work: Confirmatory studies and those to explore the influence of fidelity and compliance will be useful. Trial registration: This trial is registered as Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN10110685; ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT02980367. Funding: This award was funded by the National Institute of Health and Care Research (NIHR) Health Technology Assessment programme (NIHR award ref: 14/140/63) and is published in full in Health Technology Assessment; Vol. 28, No. 27. See the NIHR Funding and Awards website for further award information.

The study aimed to find out whether it is better to offer surgical reconstruction or rehabilitation first to patients with a more long-standing injury of their anterior cruciate ligament in their knee. This injury causes physical giving way of the knee and/or sensations of it being wobbly (instability). The instability can affect daily activities, work, sport and can lead to arthritis. There are two main treatment options for this problem: non-surgical rehabilitation (prescribed exercises and advice from physiotherapists) or an operation by a surgeon to replace the damaged ligament (anterior cruciate ligament reconstruction). Although studies have highlighted the best option for a recently injured knee, the best management was not known for patients with a long-standing injury, perhaps occurring several months previously. Because the surgery is expensive to the NHS (around £100 million per year), it was also important to look at the costs involved. We carried out a study recruiting 316 non-acute anterior cruciate ligament-injured patients from 29 different hospitals and allocated each patient to either surgery or rehabilitation as their treatment option. We measured how well they did with special function and activity scores, patient satisfaction and costs of treatment. Patients in both groups improved substantially. It was expected that some patients in the rehabilitation group would want surgery if non-surgical management was unsuccessful. Forty-one per cent of patients who initially underwent rehabilitation subsequently elected to have reconstructive surgery. Overall, the patients allocated to the surgical reconstruction group had better results in terms of knee function and stability, activity level and satisfaction with treatment than patients allocated to the non-operative rehabilitation group. There were few problems or complications with either treatment option. Although the surgery was a more expensive treatment option, it was found to be cost-effective in the UK setting. The evidence can be discussed in shared decision-making with anterior cruciate ligament-injured patients. Both strategies of management led to improvement. Although a rehabilitation strategy can be beneficial, especially for recently injured patients, it is advised that later-presenting non-acute and more long-standing anterior cruciate ligament-injured patients undergo surgical reconstruction without necessarily delaying for a period of rehabilitation.

Clinical Characterization of Patients Diagnosed with Prostate Cancer and Undergoing Conservative Management: A PIONEER Analysis Based on Big Data.

BACKGROUND: Conservative management is an option for prostate cancer (PCa) patients either with the objective of delaying or even avoiding curative therapy, or to wait until palliative treatment is needed. PIONEER, funded by the European Commission Innovative Medicines Initiative, aims at improving PCa care across Europe through the application of big data analytics. OBJECTIVE: To describe the clinical characteristics and long-term outcomes of PCa patients on conservative management by using an international large network of real-world data. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: From an initial cohort of >100 000 000 adult individuals included in eight databases evaluated during a virtual study-a-thon hosted by PIONEER, we identified newly diagnosed PCa cases (n = 527 311). Among those, we selected patients who did not receive curative or palliative treatment within 6 mo from diagnosis (n = 123 146). OUTCOME MEASUREMENTS AND STATISTICAL ANALYSIS: Patient and disease characteristics were reported. The number of patients who experienced the main study outcomes was quantified for each stratum and the overall cohort. Kaplan-Meier analyses were used to estimate the distribution of time to event data. RESULTS AND LIMITATIONS: The most common comorbidities were hypertension (35-73%), obesity (9.2-54%), and type 2 diabetes (11-28%). The rate of PCa-related symptomatic progression ranged between 2.6% and 6.2%. Hospitalization (12-25%) and emergency department visits (10-14%) were common events during the 1st year of follow-up. The probability of being free from both palliative and curative treatments decreased during follow-up. Limitations include a lack of information on patients and disease characteristics and on treatment intent. CONCLUSIONS: Our results allow us to better understand the current landscape of patients with PCa managed with conservative treatment. PIONEER offers a unique opportunity to characterize the baseline features and outcomes of PCa patients managed conservatively using real-world data. PATIENT SUMMARY: Up to 25% of men with prostate cancer (PCa) managed conservatively experienced hospitalization and emergency department visits within the 1st year after diagnosis; 6% experienced PCa-related symptoms. The probability of receiving therapies for PCa decreased according to time elapsed after the diagnosis.

Using a novel ambulatory monitoring system to support patient safety on an acute infectious disease ward during an unfolding pandemic.

AIM: To gain staff feedback on the implementation and impact of a novel ambulatory monitoring system to support coronavirus patient management on an isolation ward. DESIGN: Qualitative service evaluation. METHODS: Semi-structured interviews were conducted with 15 multidisciplinary isolation ward staff in the United Kingdom between July 2020 and May 2021. Interviews were audio-recorded, transcribed and analysed using thematic analysis. FINDINGS: Adopting Innovation to Assist Patient Safety was identified as the overriding theme. Three interlinked sub-themes represent facets of how the system supported patient safety. Patient Selection was developed throughout the pandemic, as clinical staff became more confident in choosing which patients would benefit most. Trust In the System described how nurses coped with discrepancies between the ambulatory system and ward observation machines. Finally, Resource Management examined how, once trust was built, staff perceived the ambulatory system assisted with caseload management. This supported efficient personal protective equipment resource use by reducing the number of isolation room entries. Despite these reported benefits, face-to-face contact was still highly valued, despite the risk of coronavirus exposure. CONCLUSION: Hospital wards should consider using ambulatory monitoring systems to support caseload management and patient safety. Patients in isolation rooms or at high risk of deterioration may particularly benefit from this additional monitoring. However, these systems should be seen as an adjunct to nursing care, not a replacement. IMPLICATIONS FOR THE PROFESSION AND/OR PATIENT CARE: Nurses valued ambulatory monitoring as a means of ensuring the safety of patients at risk of deterioration and prioritizing their workload. IMPACT: The findings of this research will be useful to all those developing or considering implementation of ambulatory monitoring systems in hospital wards. REPORTING METHOD: This manuscript follows the Consolidated criteria for Reporting Qualitative Research (COREQ) guidelines with inclusion of relevant SQUIRE guidelines for reporting quality improvement. PATIENT OR PUBLIC CONTRIBUTION: No Patient or Public Contribution.

Hydrogel dressings for donor sites of split-thickness skin grafts.

BACKGROUND: Donor site wounds of split-thickness skin grafts can be a major cause of morbidity. Choosing the appropriate dressing for these wounds is crucial to successful healing. Various types of dressing are available, including hydrogel dressings. A review of current evidence is required to guide clinical decision-making on the choice of dressing for the treatment of donor sites of split-thickness skin grafts. OBJECTIVES: To assess the effects of hydrogel dressings on donor site wounds following split-thickness skin grafts for wound healing. SEARCH METHODS: In July 2022 we searched the Cochrane Wounds Specialised Register, CENTRAL, MEDLINE, Embase, and CINAHL EBSCO Plus. We also searched clinical trials registries for ongoing and unpublished studies, and scanned reference lists of relevant included studies as well as reviews, meta-analyses, and health technology reports to identify additional studies. There were no restrictions with respect to language, date of publication, or study setting. SELECTION CRITERIA: Randomised controlled trials (RCTs) comparing hydrogel dressings with other types of dressing, topical treatments or no dressing, or with different types of hydrogel dressings in managing donor site wounds irrespective of language and publication status. DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS: Two review authors independently carried out data extraction, risk of bias assessment using the Cochrane risk of bias tool, RoB 1, and quality assessment according to GRADE methodology. MAIN RESULTS: We included two studies (162 participants) in this review. One study with three arms and 101 participants (15 months' duration) was conducted in a children's hospital, and compared hydrogel dressings in the form of Sorbact with Algisite, an alginate dressing and Cuticerin, a smooth acetate gauze impregnated with water-repellent ointment. Another study with two arms and 61 participants (19 months' duration) was conducted in three surgery departments and compared an octenidine-containing hydrogel dressing with an identical non-antimicrobial hydrogel dressing. We identified no studies that compared hydrogel dressings with another therapy such as a topical agent (a topical agent is a cream, an ointment or a solution that is applied directly to the wound), or no dressing, or a combination of hydrogel dressings and another therapy versus another therapy alone. Both studies were at high risk of attrition bias and the second study was also at unclear risk of selection bias. Amorphous hydrogel dressings versus other types of dressings Amorphous hydrogel dressings may increase time to wound healing when compared with alginate (mean difference (MD) 1.67 days, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.56 to 2.78; 1 study, 69 participants; low-certainty evidence) or Cuticerin dressings (MD 1.67 days, 95% CI 0.55 to 2.79; 1 study, 68 participants; low-certainty evidence). The effect of amorphous hydrogel dressings compared with other types of dressings is uncertain for pain at the donor site and wound complications, including scarring and itching (very low-certainty evidence). No adverse events were reported in any of the groups. The study did not report health-related quality of life or wound infection. Octenidine-based hydrogel dressing versus octenidine-free hydrogel dressing The effect of octenidine-based hydrogel dressings versus octenidine-free hydrogel dressings is uncertain for time to wound healing (MD 0.40, 95% CI 0.28 to 0.52; 1 study, 41 participants) and wound infection, as the certainty of the evidence is very low. The certainty of the evidence is also very low for adverse events, with two participants in the intervention group and one participant in the comparison group reporting adverse events (risk ratio (RR) 0.58, 95% CI 0.06 to 5.89; 1 study, 41 participants). The study did not report donor site pain, health-related quality of life, or wound complications. AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS: There is insufficient evidence to determine the effect of hydrogel dressings on donor site wounds of split thickness skin grafts compared with other types of dressings. There is a need for adequately powered and well-designed RCTs, with adequate sample sizes, types of populations and subgroups, types of interventions, and outcomes, that compare hydrogel dressings with other treatment options in the treatment of donor site wounds of split-thickness skin grafts.

Characteristics and outcomes of COVID-19 patients with and without asthma from the United States, South Korea, and Europe.

Objective: Large international comparisons describing the clinical characteristics of patients with COVID-19 are limited. The aim of the study was to perform a large-scale descriptive characterization of COVID-19 patients with asthma.Methods: We included nine databases contributing data from January to June 2020 from the US, South Korea (KR), Spain, UK and the Netherlands. We defined two cohorts of COVID-19 patients ('diagnosed' and 'hospitalized') based on COVID-19 disease codes. We followed patients from COVID-19 index date to 30 days or death. We performed descriptive analysis and reported the frequency of characteristics and outcomes in people with asthma defined by codes and prescriptions.Results: The diagnosed and hospitalized cohorts contained 666,933 and 159,552 COVID-19 patients respectively. Exacerbation in people with asthma was recorded in 1.6-8.6% of patients at presentation. Asthma prevalence ranged from 6.2% (95% CI 5.7-6.8) to 18.5% (95% CI 18.2-18.8) in the diagnosed cohort and 5.2% (95% CI 4.0-6.8) to 20.5% (95% CI 18.6-22.6) in the hospitalized cohort. Asthma patients with COVID-19 had high prevalence of comorbidity including hypertension, heart disease, diabetes and obesity. Mortality ranged from 2.1% (95% CI 1.8-2.4) to 16.9% (95% CI 13.8-20.5) and similar or lower compared to COVID-19 patients without asthma. Acute respiratory distress syndrome occurred in 15-30% of hospitalized COVID-19 asthma patients.Conclusion: The prevalence of asthma among COVID-19 patients varies internationally. Asthma patients with COVID-19 have high comorbidity. The prevalence of asthma exacerbation at presentation was low. Whilst mortality was similar among COVID-19 patients with and without asthma, this could be confounded by differences in clinical characteristics. Further research could help identify high-risk asthma patients.[Box: see text]Supplemental data for this article is available online at https://doi.org/10.1080/02770903.2021.2025392 .

Rehabilitation versus surgical reconstruction for non-acute anterior cruciate ligament injury (ACL SNNAP): a pragmatic randomised controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: Anterior cruciate ligament (ACL) rupture is a common debilitating injury that can cause instability of the knee. We aimed to investigate the best management strategy between reconstructive surgery and non-surgical treatment for patients with a non-acute ACL injury and persistent symptoms of instability. METHODS: We did a pragmatic, multicentre, superiority, randomised controlled trial in 29 secondary care National Health Service orthopaedic units in the UK. Patients with symptomatic knee problems (instability) consistent with an ACL injury were eligible. We excluded patients with meniscal pathology with characteristics that indicate immediate surgery. Patients were randomly assigned (1:1) by computer to either surgery (reconstruction) or rehabilitation (physiotherapy but with subsequent reconstruction permitted if instability persisted after treatment), stratified by site and baseline Knee Injury and Osteoarthritis Outcome Score-4 domain version (KOOS4). This management design represented normal practice. The primary outcome was KOOS4 at 18 months after randomisation. The principal analyses were intention-to-treat based, with KOOS4 results analysed using linear regression. This trial is registered with ISRCTN, ISRCTN10110685, and ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT02980367. FINDINGS: Between Feb 1, 2017, and April 12, 2020, we recruited 316 patients. 156 (49%) participants were randomly assigned to the surgical reconstruction group and 160 (51%) to the rehabilitation group. Mean KOOS4 at 18 months was 73·0 (SD 18·3) in the surgical group and 64·6 (21·6) in the rehabilitation group. The adjusted mean difference was 7·9 (95% CI 2·5-13·2; p=0·0053) in favour of surgical management. 65 (41%) of 160 patients allocated to rehabilitation underwent subsequent surgery according to protocol within 18 months. 43 (28%) of 156 patients allocated to surgery did not receive their allocated treatment. We found no differences between groups in the proportion of intervention-related complications. INTERPRETATION: Surgical reconstruction as a management strategy for patients with non-acute ACL injury with persistent symptoms of instability was clinically superior and more cost-effective in comparison with rehabilitation management. FUNDING: The UK National Institute for Health Research Health Technology Assessment Programme.

Current Approaches to Vaccine Safety Using Observational Data: A Rationale for the EUMAEUS (Evaluating Use of Methods for Adverse Events Under Surveillance-for Vaccines) Study Design.

Post-marketing vaccine safety surveillance aims to detect adverse events following immunization in a population. Whether certain methods of surveillance are more precise and unbiased in generating safety signals is unclear. Here, we synthesized information from existing literature to provide an overview of the strengths, weaknesses, and clinical applications of epidemiologic and analytical methods used in vaccine monitoring, focusing on cohort, case-control and self-controlled designs. These designs are proposed to be evaluated in the EUMAEUS (Evaluating Use of Methods for Adverse Event Under Surveillance-for vaccines) study because of their widespread use and potential utility. Over the past decades, there have been an increasing number of epidemiological study designs used for vaccine safety surveillance. While traditional cohort and case-control study designs remain widely used, newer, novel designs such as the self-controlled case series and self-controlled risk intervals have been developed. Each study design comes with its strengths and limitations, and the most appropriate study design will depend on availability of resources, access to records, number and distribution of cases, and availability of population coverage data. Several assumptions have to be made while using the various study designs, and while the goal is to mitigate any biases, violations of these assumptions are often still present to varying degrees. In our review, we discussed some of the potential biases (i.e., selection bias, misclassification bias and confounding bias), and ways to mitigate them. While the types of epidemiological study designs are well established, a comprehensive comparison of the analytical aspects (including method evaluation and performance metrics) of these study designs are relatively less well studied. We summarized the literature, reporting on two simulation studies, which compared the detection time, empirical power, error rate and risk estimate bias across the above-mentioned study designs. While these simulation studies provided insights on the analytic performance of each of the study designs, its applicability to real-world data remains unclear. To bridge that gap, we provided the rationale of the EUMAEUS study, with a brief description of the study design; and how the use of real-world multi-database networks can provide insights into better methods evaluation and vaccine safety surveillance.

Unraveling COVID-19: A Large-Scale Characterization of 4.5 Million COVID-19 Cases Using CHARYBDIS.

Purpose: Routinely collected real world data (RWD) have great utility in aiding the novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic response. Here we present the international Observational Health Data Sciences and Informatics (OHDSI) Characterizing Health Associated Risks and Your Baseline Disease In SARS-COV-2 (CHARYBDIS) framework for standardisation and analysis of COVID-19 RWD. Patients and Methods: We conducted a descriptive retrospective database study using a federated network of data partners in the United States, Europe (the Netherlands, Spain, the UK, Germany, France and Italy) and Asia (South Korea and China). The study protocol and analytical package were released on 11th June 2020 and are iteratively updated via GitHub. We identified three non-mutually exclusive cohorts of 4,537,153 individuals with a clinical COVID-19 diagnosis or positive test, 886,193 hospitalized with COVID-19, and 113,627 hospitalized with COVID-19 requiring intensive services. Results: We aggregated over 22,000 unique characteristics describing patients with COVID-19. All comorbidities, symptoms, medications, and outcomes are described by cohort in aggregate counts and are readily available online. Globally, we observed similarities in the USA and Europe: more women diagnosed than men but more men hospitalized than women, most diagnosed cases between 25 and 60 years of age versus most hospitalized cases between 60 and 80 years of age. South Korea differed with more women than men hospitalized. Common comorbidities included type 2 diabetes, hypertension, chronic kidney disease and heart disease. Common presenting symptoms were dyspnea, cough and fever. Symptom data availability was more common in hospitalized cohorts than diagnosed. Conclusion: We constructed a global, multi-centre view to describe trends in COVID-19 progression, management and evolution over time. By characterising baseline variability in patients and geography, our work provides critical context that may otherwise be misconstrued as data quality issues. This is important as we perform studies on adverse events of special interest in COVID-19 vaccine surveillance.

The Use of Wearable Pulse Oximeters in the Prompt Detection of Hypoxemia and During Movement: Diagnostic Accuracy Study.

BACKGROUND: Commercially available wearable (ambulatory) pulse oximeters have been recommended as a method for managing patients at risk of physiological deterioration, such as active patients with COVID-19 disease receiving care in hospital isolation rooms; however, their reliability in usual hospital settings is not known. OBJECTIVE: We report the performance of wearable pulse oximeters in a simulated clinical setting when challenged by motion and low levels of arterial blood oxygen saturation (SaO2). METHODS: The performance of 1 wrist-worn (Wavelet) and 3 finger-worn (CheckMe O2+, AP-20, and WristOx2 3150) wearable, wireless transmission-mode pulse oximeters was evaluated. For this, 7 motion tasks were performed: at rest, sit-to-stand, tapping, rubbing, drinking, turning pages, and using a tablet. Hypoxia exposure followed, in which inspired gases were adjusted to achieve decreasing SaO2 levels at 100%, 95%, 90%, 87%, 85%, 83%, and 80%. Peripheral oxygen saturation (SpO2) estimates were compared with simultaneous SaO2 samples to calculate the root-mean-square error (RMSE). The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was used to analyze the detection of hypoxemia (ie, SaO2<90%). RESULTS: SpO2 estimates matching 215 SaO2 samples in both study phases, from 33 participants, were analyzed. Tapping, rubbing, turning pages, and using a tablet degraded SpO2 estimation (RMSE>4% for at least 1 device). All finger-worn pulse oximeters detected hypoxemia, with an overall sensitivity of ≥0.87 and specificity of ≥0.80, comparable to that of the Philips MX450 pulse oximeter. CONCLUSIONS: The SpO2 accuracy of wearable finger-worn pulse oximeters was within that required by the International Organization for Standardization guidelines. Performance was degraded by motion, but all pulse oximeters could detect hypoxemia. Our findings support the use of wearable, wireless transmission-mode pulse oximeters to detect the onset of clinical deterioration in hospital settings. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ISRCTN Registry 61535692; http://www.isrctn.com/ISRCTN61535692. INTERNATIONAL REGISTERED REPORT IDENTIFIER (IRRID): RR2-10.1136/bmjopen-2019-034404.

Seek COVER: using a disease proxy to rapidly develop and validate a personalized risk calculator for COVID-19 outcomes in an international network.

BACKGROUND: We investigated whether we could use influenza data to develop prediction models for COVID-19 to increase the speed at which prediction models can reliably be developed and validated early in a pandemic. We developed COVID-19 Estimated Risk (COVER) scores that quantify a patient's risk of hospital admission with pneumonia (COVER-H), hospitalization with pneumonia requiring intensive services or death (COVER-I), or fatality (COVER-F) in the 30-days following COVID-19 diagnosis using historical data from patients with influenza or flu-like symptoms and tested this in COVID-19 patients. METHODS: We analyzed a federated network of electronic medical records and administrative claims data from 14 data sources and 6 countries containing data collected on or before 4/27/2020. We used a 2-step process to develop 3 scores using historical data from patients with influenza or flu-like symptoms any time prior to 2020. The first step was to create a data-driven model using LASSO regularized logistic regression, the covariates of which were used to develop aggregate covariates for the second step where the COVER scores were developed using a smaller set of features. These 3 COVER scores were then externally validated on patients with 1) influenza or flu-like symptoms and 2) confirmed or suspected COVID-19 diagnosis across 5 databases from South Korea, Spain, and the United States. Outcomes included i) hospitalization with pneumonia, ii) hospitalization with pneumonia requiring intensive services or death, and iii) death in the 30 days after index date. RESULTS: Overall, 44,507 COVID-19 patients were included for model validation. We identified 7 predictors (history of cancer, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, diabetes, heart disease, hypertension, hyperlipidemia, kidney disease) which combined with age and sex discriminated which patients would experience any of our three outcomes. The models achieved good performance in influenza and COVID-19 cohorts. For COVID-19 the AUC ranges were, COVER-H: 0.69-0.81, COVER-I: 0.73-0.91, and COVER-F: 0.72-0.90. Calibration varied across the validations with some of the COVID-19 validations being less well calibrated than the influenza validations. CONCLUSIONS: This research demonstrated the utility of using a proxy disease to develop a prediction model. The 3 COVER models with 9-predictors that were developed using influenza data perform well for COVID-19 patients for predicting hospitalization, intensive services, and fatality. The scores showed good discriminatory performance which transferred well to the COVID-19 population. There was some miscalibration in the COVID-19 validations, which is potentially due to the difference in symptom severity between the two diseases. A possible solution for this is to recalibrate the models in each location before use.

Experiences of current vital signs monitoring practices and views of wearable monitoring: A qualitative study in patients and nurses.

AIMS: To understand current experiences of vital signs monitoring of patients and clinical staff on a surgical ward, and views on the introduction of wearable ambulatory monitoring into the general ward environment. DESIGN: Qualitative study. METHODS: Semi-structured interviews using topic guides were conducted with 15 patients and 15 nurses on a surgical ward between July 2018 and August 2019. The concept of ambulatory wearable devices for clinical monitoring was introduced at the end of the interview. RESULTS: Three interconnected themes were identified. Vital sign data as evidence for escalation, examined nurses' use of data to support escalation of care and the implications for patients perceived to be deteriorating who have not reached the threshold for escalation. The second theme, Trustworthiness of vital sign data, described nurses' practice of using manual measurements to recheck or confirm automated vital signs readings when concerned. The final theme, finding a balance between continuous and intermittent monitoring, both patients and nurses agreed that although continuous monitoring may improve safety and reassurance, these needed to be balanced with multiple limitations. Factors to be considered included noise pollution, comfort, and impact on patient mobility and independence. Introduction of the concept of ambulatory wearable devices was viewed positively by both groups as offering solutions to some of the issues identified with traditional monitoring. However, most agreed that this would not be suitable for all patients and should not replace direct nurse/patient contact. CONCLUSION: Both patients and staff identified the benefits of continuous monitoring to improve patient safety but, due to limitations, use should be carefully considered and patient-centred. IMPACT: Feedback from nurses and patients suggests there is scope for ambulatory monitoring systems to be integrated into the hospital environment; however, both groups emphasized these should not add more noise to the ward nor replace direct nursing contact.

Bias, Precision and Timeliness of Historical (Background) Rate Comparison Methods for Vaccine Safety Monitoring: An Empirical Multi-Database Analysis.

Using real-world data and past vaccination data, we conducted a large-scale experiment to quantify bias, precision and timeliness of different study designs to estimate historical background (expected) compared to post-vaccination (observed) rates of safety events for several vaccines. We used negative (not causally related) and positive control outcomes. The latter were synthetically generated true safety signals with incident rate ratios ranging from 1.5 to 4. Observed vs. expected analysis using within-database historical background rates is a sensitive but unspecific method for the identification of potential vaccine safety signals. Despite good discrimination, most analyses showed a tendency to overestimate risks, with 20%-100% type 1 error, but low (0% to 20%) type 2 error in the large databases included in our study. Efforts to improve the comparability of background and post-vaccine rates, including age-sex adjustment and anchoring background rates around a visit, reduced type 1 error and improved precision but residual systematic error persisted. Additionally, empirical calibration dramatically reduced type 1 to nominal but came at the cost of increasing type 2 error.

Characteristics and outcomes of patients with COVID-19 with and without prevalent hypertension: a multinational cohort study.

OBJECTIVE: To characterise patients with and without prevalent hypertension and COVID-19 and to assess adverse outcomes in both inpatients and outpatients. DESIGN AND SETTING: This is a retrospective cohort study using 15 healthcare databases (primary and secondary electronic healthcare records, insurance and national claims data) from the USA, Europe and South Korea, standardised to the Observational Medical Outcomes Partnership common data model. Data were gathered from 1 March to 31 October 2020. PARTICIPANTS: Two non-mutually exclusive cohorts were defined: (1) individuals diagnosed with COVID-19 (diagnosed cohort) and (2) individuals hospitalised with COVID-19 (hospitalised cohort), and stratified by hypertension status. Follow-up was from COVID-19 diagnosis/hospitalisation to death, end of the study period or 30 days. OUTCOMES: Demographics, comorbidities and 30-day outcomes (hospitalisation and death for the 'diagnosed' cohort and adverse events and death for the 'hospitalised' cohort) were reported. RESULTS: We identified 2 851 035 diagnosed and 563 708 hospitalised patients with COVID-19. Hypertension was more prevalent in the latter (ranging across databases from 17.4% (95% CI 17.2 to 17.6) to 61.4% (95% CI 61.0 to 61.8) and from 25.6% (95% CI 24.6 to 26.6) to 85.9% (95% CI 85.2 to 86.6)). Patients in both cohorts with hypertension were predominantly >50 years old and female. Patients with hypertension were frequently diagnosed with obesity, heart disease, dyslipidaemia and diabetes. Compared with patients without hypertension, patients with hypertension in the COVID-19 diagnosed cohort had more hospitalisations (ranging from 1.3% (95% CI 0.4 to 2.2) to 41.1% (95% CI 39.5 to 42.7) vs from 1.4% (95% CI 0.9 to 1.9) to 15.9% (95% CI 14.9 to 16.9)) and increased mortality (ranging from 0.3% (95% CI 0.1 to 0.5) to 18.5% (95% CI 15.7 to 21.3) vs from 0.2% (95% CI 0.2 to 0.2) to 11.8% (95% CI 10.8 to 12.8)). Patients in the COVID-19 hospitalised cohort with hypertension were more likely to have acute respiratory distress syndrome (ranging from 0.1% (95% CI 0.0 to 0.2) to 65.6% (95% CI 62.5 to 68.7) vs from 0.1% (95% CI 0.0 to 0.2) to 54.7% (95% CI 50.5 to 58.9)), arrhythmia (ranging from 0.5% (95% CI 0.3 to 0.7) to 45.8% (95% CI 42.6 to 49.0) vs from 0.4% (95% CI 0.3 to 0.5) to 36.8% (95% CI 32.7 to 40.9)) and increased mortality (ranging from 1.8% (95% CI 0.4 to 3.2) to 25.1% (95% CI 23.0 to 27.2) vs from 0.7% (95% CI 0.5 to 0.9) to 10.9% (95% CI 10.4 to 11.4)) than patients without hypertension. CONCLUSIONS: COVID-19 patients with hypertension were more likely to suffer severe outcomes, hospitalisations and deaths compared with those without hypertension.

A Real-Time Wearable System for Monitoring Vital Signs of COVID-19 Patients in a Hospital Setting.

The challenges presented by the Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic to the National Health Service (NHS) in the United Kingdom (UK) led to a rapid adaptation of infection disease protocols in-hospital. In this paper we report on the optimisation of our wearable ambulatory monitoring system (AMS) to monitor COVID-19 patients on isolation wards. A wearable chest patch (VitalPatch®, VitalConnect, United States of America, USA) and finger-worn pulse oximeter (WristOx2® 3150, Nonin, USA) were used to estimate and transmit continuous Heart Rate (HR), Respiratory Rate (RR), and peripheral blood Oxygen Saturation (SpO2) data from ambulatory patients on these isolation wards to nurse bays remote from these patients, with a view to minimising the risk of infection for nursing staff. Our virtual High-Dependency Unit (vHDU) system used a secure web-based architecture and protocols (HTTPS and encrypted WebSockets) to transmit the vital-sign data in real time from wireless Android tablet devices, operating as patient data collection devices by the bedside in the isolation rooms, into the clinician dashboard interface available remotely via any modern web-browser. Fault-tolerant software strategies were used to reconnect the wearables automatically, avoiding the need for nurses to enter the isolation ward to re-set the patient monitoring equipment. The remote dashboard also displayed the vital-sign observations recorded by the nurses, using a separate electronic observation system, allowing them to review both sources of vital-sign data in one integrated chart. System usage was found to follow the trend of the number of local COVID-19 infections during the first wave of the pandemic in the UK (March to June 2020), with almost half of the patients on the isolation ward monitored with wearables during the peak of hospital admissions in the local area. Patients were monitored for a median of 31.5 [8.8, 75.4] hours, representing 88.1 [62.5, 94.5]% of the median time they were registered in the system. This indicates the system was being used in the isolation ward during this period. An updated version of the system has now also been used throughout the second and third waves of the pandemic in the UK.

The impact of wearable continuous vital sign monitoring on deterioration detection and clinical outcomes in hospitalised patients: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Timely recognition of the deteriorating inpatient remains challenging. Wearable monitoring systems (WMS) may augment current monitoring practices. However, there are many barriers to implementation in the hospital environment, and evidence describing the clinical impact of WMS on deterioration detection and patient outcome remains unclear. OBJECTIVE: To assess the impact of vital-sign monitoring on detection of deterioration and related clinical outcomes in hospitalised patients using WMS, in comparison with standard care. METHODS: A systematic search was conducted in August 2020 using MEDLINE, Embase, CINAHL, Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews, CENTRAL, Health Technology Assessment databases and grey literature. Studies comparing the use of WMS against standard care for deterioration detection and related clinical outcomes in hospitalised patients were included. Deterioration related outcomes (primary) included unplanned intensive care admissions, rapid response team or cardiac arrest activation, total and major complications rate. Other clinical outcomes (secondary) included in-hospital mortality and hospital length of stay. Exploratory outcomes included alerting system parameters and clinical trial registry information. RESULTS: Of 8706 citations, 10 studies with different designs met the inclusion criteria, of which 7 were included in the meta-analyses. Overall study quality was moderate. The meta-analysis indicated that the WMS, when compared with standard care, was not associated with significant reductions in intensive care transfers (risk ratio, RR 0.87; 95% confidence interval, CI 0.66-1.15), rapid response or cardiac arrest team activation (RR 0.84; 95% CI 0.69-1.01), total (RR 0.77; 95% CI 0.44-1.32) and major (RR 0.55; 95% CI 0.24-1.30) complications prevalence. There was also no statistically significant association with reduced mortality (RR 0.48; 95% CI 0.18-1.29) and hospital length of stay (mean difference, MD - 0.09; 95% CI - 0.43 to 0.44). CONCLUSION: This systematic review indicates that there is no current evidence that implementation of WMS impacts early deterioration detection and associated clinical outcomes, as differing design/quality of available studies and diversity of outcome measures make it difficult to reach a definite conclusion. Our narrative findings suggested that alarms should be adjusted to minimise false alarms and promote rapid clinical action in response to deterioration. PROSPERO Registration number: CRD42020188633 .

A Chest Patch for Continuous Vital Sign Monitoring: Clinical Validation Study During Movement and Controlled Hypoxia.

BACKGROUND: The standard of care in general wards includes periodic manual measurements, with the data entered into track-and-trigger charts, either on paper or electronically. Wearable devices may support health care staff, improve patient safety, and promote early deterioration detection in the interval between periodic measurements. However, regulatory standards for ambulatory cardiac monitors estimating heart rate (HR) and respiratory rate (RR) do not specify performance criteria during patient movement or clinical conditions in which the patient's oxygen saturation varies. Therefore, further validation is required before clinical implementation and deployment of any wearable system that provides continuous vital sign measurements. OBJECTIVE: The objective of this study is to determine the agreement between a chest-worn patch (VitalPatch) and a gold standard reference device for HR and RR measurements during movement and gradual desaturation (modeling a hypoxic episode) in a controlled environment. METHODS: After the VitalPatch and gold standard devices (Philips MX450) were applied, participants performed different movements in seven consecutive stages: at rest, sit-to-stand, tapping, rubbing, drinking, turning pages, and using a tablet. Hypoxia was then induced, and the participants' oxygen saturation gradually reduced to 80% in a controlled environment. The primary outcome measure was accuracy, defined as the mean absolute error (MAE) of the VitalPatch estimates when compared with HR and RR gold standards (3-lead electrocardiography and capnography, respectively). We defined these as clinically acceptable if the rates were within 5 beats per minute for HR and 3 respirations per minute (rpm) for RR. RESULTS: Complete data sets were acquired for 29 participants. In the movement phase, the HR estimates were within prespecified limits for all movements. For RR, estimates were also within the acceptable range, with the exception of the sit-to-stand and turning page movements, showing an MAE of 3.05 (95% CI 2.48-3.58) rpm and 3.45 (95% CI 2.71-4.11) rpm, respectively. For the hypoxia phase, both HR and RR estimates were within limits, with an overall MAE of 0.72 (95% CI 0.66-0.78) beats per minute and 1.89 (95% CI 1.75-2.03) rpm, respectively. There were no significant differences in the accuracy of HR and RR estimations between normoxia (≥90%), mild (89.9%-85%), and severe hypoxia (<85%). CONCLUSIONS: The VitalPatch was highly accurate throughout both the movement and hypoxia phases of the study, except for RR estimation during the two types of movements. This study demonstrated that VitalPatch can be safely tested in clinical environments to support earlier detection of cardiorespiratory deterioration. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ISRCTN Registry ISRCTN61535692; https://www.isrctn.com/ISRCTN61535692.

Characteristics and outcomes of 627 044 COVID-19 patients living with and without obesity in the United States, Spain, and the United Kingdom.

BACKGROUND: A detailed characterization of patients with COVID-19 living with obesity has not yet been undertaken. We aimed to describe and compare the demographics, medical conditions, and outcomes of COVID-19 patients living with obesity (PLWO) to those of patients living without obesity. METHODS: We conducted a cohort study based on outpatient/inpatient care and claims data from January to June 2020 from Spain, the UK, and the US. We used six databases standardized to the OMOP common data model. We defined two non-mutually exclusive cohorts of patients diagnosed and/or hospitalized with COVID-19; patients were followed from index date to 30 days or death. We report the frequency of demographics, prior medical conditions, and 30-days outcomes (hospitalization, events, and death) by obesity status. RESULTS: We included 627 044 (Spain: 122 058, UK: 2336, and US: 502 650) diagnosed and 160 013 (Spain: 18 197, US: 141 816) hospitalized patients with COVID-19. The prevalence of obesity was higher among patients hospitalized (39.9%, 95%CI: 39.8-40.0) than among those diagnosed with COVID-19 (33.1%; 95%CI: 33.0-33.2). In both cohorts, PLWO were more often female. Hospitalized PLWO were younger than patients without obesity. Overall, COVID-19 PLWO were more likely to have prior medical conditions, present with cardiovascular and respiratory events during hospitalization, or require intensive services compared to COVID-19 patients without obesity. CONCLUSION: We show that PLWO differ from patients without obesity in a wide range of medical conditions and present with more severe forms of COVID-19, with higher hospitalization rates and intensive services requirements. These findings can help guiding preventive strategies of COVID-19 infection and complications and generating hypotheses for causal inference studies.

Characteristics and Outcomes of Over 300,000 Patients with COVID-19 and History of Cancer in the United States and Spain.

BACKGROUND: We described the demographics, cancer subtypes, comorbidities, and outcomes of patients with a history of cancer and coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). Second, we compared patients hospitalized with COVID-19 to patients diagnosed with COVID-19 and patients hospitalized with influenza. METHODS: We conducted a cohort study using eight routinely collected health care databases from Spain and the United States, standardized to the Observational Medical Outcome Partnership common data model. Three cohorts of patients with a history of cancer were included: (i) diagnosed with COVID-19, (ii) hospitalized with COVID-19, and (iii) hospitalized with influenza in 2017 to 2018. Patients were followed from index date to 30 days or death. We reported demographics, cancer subtypes, comorbidities, and 30-day outcomes. RESULTS: We included 366,050 and 119,597 patients diagnosed and hospitalized with COVID-19, respectively. Prostate and breast cancers were the most frequent cancers (range: 5%-18% and 1%-14% in the diagnosed cohort, respectively). Hematologic malignancies were also frequent, with non-Hodgkin's lymphoma being among the five most common cancer subtypes in the diagnosed cohort. Overall, patients were aged above 65 years and had multiple comorbidities. Occurrence of death ranged from 2% to 14% and from 6% to 26% in the diagnosed and hospitalized COVID-19 cohorts, respectively. Patients hospitalized with influenza (n = 67,743) had a similar distribution of cancer subtypes, sex, age, and comorbidities but lower occurrence of adverse events. CONCLUSIONS: Patients with a history of cancer and COVID-19 had multiple comorbidities and a high occurrence of COVID-19-related events. Hematologic malignancies were frequent. IMPACT: This study provides epidemiologic characteristics that can inform clinical care and etiologic studies.

Recruiting patients to a digital self-management study whilst in hospital for a chronic obstructive pulmonary disease exacerbation: A feasibility analysis.

BACKGROUND: Patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) are often hospitalised with acute exacerbations (AECOPD) and many patients get readmitted. Intervening with hospitalised patients may be optimal timing to provide support. Our previous work demonstrated use of a digital monitoring and self-management support tool in the community. However, we wanted to explore the feasibility of recruiting patients whilst hospitalised for an AECOPD, and to identify the rate of dropout attrition around admission for AECOPD. METHODS: Patients were recruited to the EDGE2 study between May 2019 and March 2020. Patients were identified by the clinical teams and patients were recruited by members of the clinical research team. Participants were aged 40 years or older, had a diagnosis of COPD and were attending or admitted to hospital for an AECOPD. Participants were given a tablet computer, Bluetooth-linked pulse oximeter and wrist-worn physical activity monitor to use until 6 months post-discharge. Use of the system aimed to support COPD self-management by enabling self-monitoring of vital signs, COPD symptoms, mood and physical activity, and access to multi-media educational resources. RESULTS: 281 patients were identified and 126 approached. The main referral source was the specialist respiratory nursing and physiotherapist team (49.8% of patients identified). Twenty-six (37.1%) patients were recruited. As of 21 April 2020, 14 (53.8%) participants withdrew and 11 (of 14; 78.6%) participants withdrew within four weeks of discharge. The remaining participants withdrew between one and three months follow-up (1 of 14; 7.1%) and between three and six months follow-up (2 of 14; 14.3%). CONCLUSION: A large number of patients were screened to recruit a relatively small sample and a high rate of dropout was observed. It does not appear feasible to recruit patients with COPD to digital interventional studies from the hospital setting when they have the burden of coping with acute illness.