Jointly modelling longitudinally measured urinary human chorionic gonadotrophin and early pregnancy outcomes.

Human chorionic gonadotrophin (hCG) is largely used to confirm pregnancy. Yet evidence shows that longitudinal hCG profiles are distinguishable between healthy and failing pregnancies. We retrospectively fitted a joint longitudinal-survival model to data from 127 (85 healthy and 42 failing pregnancies) US women, aged 18-45, who were attempting to conceive, to quantify the association between longitudinally measured urinary hCG and early miscarriage. Using subject-specific predictions, obtained uniquely from the joint model, we investigated the plausibility of adaptively monitoring early pregnancy outcomes based on updating hCG measurements. Volunteers collected daily early morning urine samples for their menstrual cycle and up to 28 days post day of missed period. The longitudinal submodel for log hCG included a random intercept and slope and fixed linear and quadratic time terms. The survival submodel included maternal age and cycle length covariates. Unit increases in log hCG corresponded to a 63.9% (HR 0.36, 95% CI 0.16, 0.47) decrease in the risk of miscarriage, confirming a strong association between hCG and miscarriage. Outputted conditional survival probabilities gave individualised risk estimates for the early pregnancy outcomes in the short term. However, longer term monitoring would require a larger sample size and prospectively followed up data, focusing on emerging extensions to the joint model, which allow assessment of the specificity and sensitivity.

Walking Away from Type 2 diabetes: a cluster randomized controlled trial.

AIMS: This study aimed to investigate whether an established behavioural intervention, Walking Away from Type 2 Diabetes, is effective at promoting and sustaining increased walking activity when delivered within primary care. METHODS: Cluster randomized controlled trial involving 10 general practices recruited from Leicestershire, UK, in 2009-2010. Eight hundred and eight (36% female) individuals with a high risk of Type 2 diabetes mellitus, identified through a validated risk score, were included. Participants in five practices were randomized to Walking Away from Type 2 Diabetes, a pragmatic 3-h group-based structured education programme incorporating pedometer use with annual follow-on refresher sessions. The primary outcome was accelerometer assessed ambulatory activity (steps/day) at 12 months. Longer term maintenance was assessed at 24 and 36 months. Results were analysed using generalized estimating equation models, accounting for clustering. RESULTS: Complete accelerometer data for the primary outcome were available for 571 (71%) participants. Increases in ambulatory activity of 411 steps/day [95% confidence interval (CI): 117, 704] and self-reported vigorous-intensity physical activity of 218 metabolic equivalent min/week (95% CI: 6, 425) at 12 months were observed in the intervention group compared with control; differences between groups were not sustained at 36 months. No differences between groups were observed for markers of cardiometabolic health. Replacing missing data with multiple imputation did not affect the results. CONCLUSIONS: A pragmatic low-resource group-based structured education programme with pedometer use resulted in modest increases in ambulatory activity compared with control conditions after 12 months when implemented within a primary care setting to those at high risk of Type 2 diabetes mellitus; however, the results were not maintained over 36 months.

A retrospective evaluation of the NHS Health Check Programme in a multi-ethnic population.

BACKGROUND: The NHS Health Check Programme was introduced in 2009 to improve primary prevention of coronary heart disease, stroke, diabetes and chronic kidney disease; however, there has been debate regarding the impact. We present a retrospective evaluation of Leicester City Clinical Commissioning Group. METHODS: Data are reported on diagnosis of type 2 diabetes, hypertension, chronic kidney disease, high risk of type 2 diabetes and high risk of cardiovascular disease. Data on management following the Health Check are also reported. RESULTS: Over a 5-year period, 53 799 health checks were performed, 16 388 (30%) people were diagnosed with at least one condition when diagnosis of being at high risk of cardiovascular disease was defined as ≥20%. This figure increased to 43% when diagnosis of high cardiovascular risk ≥10% was included. Of the 3063 (5.7%) individuals diagnosed with type 2 diabetes, 54% were prescribed metformin and 26% were referred for structured education. Of the 5797 (10.8%) individuals diagnosed at high risk of cardiovascular disease (≥20%), 64% were prescribed statins. CONCLUSIONS: A high proportion of new cases of people at risk of cardiovascular disease were identified by the NHS Health Check Programme. Data suggest that this has translated into appropriate preventative measures.