Predicting clinical outcomes of SARS-CoV-2 infection during the Omicron wave using machine learning.

The Omicron SARS-CoV-2 variant continues to strain healthcare systems. Developing tools that facilitate the identification of patients at highest risk of adverse outcomes is a priority. The study objectives are to develop population-scale predictive models that: 1) identify predictors of adverse outcomes with Omicron surge SARS-CoV-2 infections, and 2) predict the impact of prioritized vaccination of high-risk groups for said outcome. We prepared a retrospective longitudinal observational study of a national cohort of 172,814 patients in the U.S. Veteran Health Administration who tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 from January 15 to August 15, 2022. We utilized sociodemographic characteristics, comorbidities, and vaccination status, at time of testing positive for SARS-CoV-2 to predict hospitalization, escalation of care (high-flow oxygen, mechanical ventilation, vasopressor use, dialysis, or extracorporeal membrane oxygenation), and death within 30 days. Machine learning models demonstrated that advanced age, high comorbidity burden, lower body mass index, unvaccinated status, and oral anticoagulant use were the important predictors of hospitalization and escalation of care. Similar factors predicted death. However, anticoagulant use did not predict mortality risk. The all-cause death model showed the highest discrimination (Area Under the Curve (AUC) = 0.903, 95% Confidence Interval (CI): 0.895, 0.911) followed by hospitalization (AUC = 0.822, CI: 0.818, 0.826), then escalation of care (AUC = 0.793, CI: 0.784, 0.805). Assuming a vaccine efficacy range of 70.8 to 78.7%, our simulations projected that targeted prevention in the highest risk group may have reduced 30-day hospitalization and death in more than 2 of 5 unvaccinated patients.

Correlates of suicidal behaviors and genetic risk among United States veterans with schizophrenia or bipolar I disorder.

Persons diagnosed with schizophrenia (SCZ) or bipolar I disorder (BPI) are at high risk for self-injurious behavior, suicidal ideation, and suicidal behaviors (SB). Characterizing associations between diagnosed health problems, prior pharmacological treatments, and polygenic scores (PGS) has potential to inform risk stratification. We examined self-reported SB and ideation using the Columbia Suicide Severity Rating Scale (C-SSRS) among 3,942 SCZ and 5,414 BPI patients receiving care within the Veterans Health Administration (VHA). These cross-sectional data were integrated with electronic health records (EHRs), and compared across lifetime diagnoses, treatment histories, follow-up screenings, and mortality data. PGS were constructed using available genomic data for related traits. Genome-wide association studies were performed to identify and prioritize specific loci. Only 20% of the veterans who reported SB had a corroborating ICD-9/10 EHR code. Among those without prior SB, more than 20% reported new-onset SB at follow-up. SB were associated with a range of additional clinical diagnoses, and with treatment with specific classes of psychotropic medications (e.g., antidepressants, antipsychotics, etc.). PGS for externalizing behaviors, smoking initiation, suicide attempt, and major depressive disorder were associated with SB. The GWAS for SB yielded no significant loci. Among individuals with a diagnosed mental illness, self-reported SB were strongly associated with clinical variables across several EHR domains. Analyses point to sequelae of substance-related and psychiatric comorbidities as strong correlates of prior and subsequent SB. Nonetheless, past SB was frequently not documented in health records, underscoring the value of regular screening with direct, in-person assessments, especially among high-risk individuals.

The Million Veteran Program 1990-1991 Gulf War Era Survey: An Evaluation of Veteran Response, Characteristics, and Representativeness of the Gulf War Era Veteran Population.

To address gaps in understanding the pathophysiology of Gulf War Illness (GWI), the VA Million Veteran Program (MVP) developed and implemented a survey to MVP enrollees who served in the U.S. military during the 1990-1991 Persian Gulf War (GW). Eligible Veterans were invited via mail to complete a survey assessing health conditions as well as GW-specific deployment characteristics and exposures. We evaluated the representativeness of this GW-era cohort relative to the broader population by comparing demographic, military, and health characteristics between respondents and non-respondents, as well as with all GW-era Veterans who have used Veterans Health Administration (VHA) services and the full population of U.S. GW-deployed Veterans. A total of 109,976 MVP GW-era Veterans were invited to participate and 45,270 (41%) returned a completed survey. Respondents were 84% male, 72% White, 8% Hispanic, with a mean age of 61.6 years (SD = 8.5). Respondents were more likely to be older, White, married, better educated, slightly healthier, and have higher socioeconomic status than non-respondents, but reported similar medical conditions and comparable health status. Although generally similar to all GW-era Veterans using VHA services and the full population of U.S. GW Veterans, respondents included higher proportions of women and military officers, and were slightly older. In conclusion, sample characteristics of the MVP GW-era cohort can be considered generally representative of the broader GW-era Veteran population. The sample represents the largest research cohort of GW-era Veterans established to date and provides a uniquely valuable resource for conducting in-depth studies to evaluate health conditions affecting 1990-1991 GW-era Veterans.

Correlates of Risk for Disinhibited Behaviors in the Million Veteran Program Cohort.

Importance: Many psychiatric outcomes share a common etiologic pathway reflecting behavioral disinhibition, generally referred to as externalizing (EXT) disorders. Recent genome-wide association studies (GWASs) have demonstrated the overlap between EXT disorders and important aspects of veterans' health, such as suicide-related behaviors and substance use disorders (SUDs). Objective: To explore correlates of risk for EXT disorders within the Veterans Health Administration (VA) Million Veteran Program (MVP). Design, Setting, and Participants: A series of phenome-wide association studies (PheWASs) of polygenic risk scores (PGSs) for EXT disorders was conducted using electronic health records. First, ancestry-specific PheWASs of EXT PGSs were conducted in the African, European, and Hispanic or Latin American ancestries. Next, a conditional PheWAS, covarying for PGSs of comorbid psychiatric problems (depression, schizophrenia, and suicide attempt; European ancestries only), was performed. Lastly, to adjust for unmeasured confounders, a within-family analysis of significant associations from the main PheWAS was performed in full siblings (European ancestries only). This study included the electronic health record data from US veterans from VA health care centers enrolled in MVP. Analyses took place from February 2022 to August 2023 covering a period from October 1999 to January 2020. Exposures: PGSs for EXT, depression, schizophrenia, and suicide attempt. Main Outcomes and Measures: Phecodes for diagnoses derived from the International Statistical Classification of Diseases, Ninth and Tenth Revisions, Clinical Modification, codes from electronic health records. Results: Within the MVP (560 824 patients; mean [SD] age, 67.9 [14.3] years; 512 593 male [91.4%]), the EXT PGS was associated with 619 outcomes, of which 188 were independent of risk for comorbid problems or PGSs (from odds ratio [OR], 1.02; 95% CI, 1.01-1.03 for overweight/obesity to OR, 1.44; 95% CI, 1.42-1.47 for viral hepatitis C). Of the significant outcomes, 73 (11.9%) were significant in the African results and 26 (4.5%) were significant in the Hispanic or Latin American results. Within-family analyses uncovered robust associations between EXT PGS and consequences of SUDs, including liver disease, chronic airway obstruction, and viral hepatitis C. Conclusions and Relevance: Results of this cohort study suggest a shared polygenic basis of EXT disorders, independent of risk for other psychiatric problems. In addition, this study found associations between EXT PGS and diagnoses related to SUDs and their sequelae. Overall, this study highlighted the potential negative consequences of EXT disorders for health and functioning in the US veteran population.

Comparison of the Test-negative Design and Cohort Design With Explicit Target Trial Emulation for Evaluating COVID-19 Vaccine Effectiveness.

BACKGROUND: Observational studies are used for estimating vaccine effectiveness under real-world conditions. The practical performance of two common approaches-cohort and test-negative designs-need to be compared for COVID-19 vaccines. METHODS: We compared the cohort and test-negative designs to estimate the effectiveness of the BNT162b2 vaccine against COVID-19 outcomes using nationwide data from the United States Department of Veterans Affairs. Specifically, we (1) explicitly emulated a target trial using follow-up data and evaluated the potential for confounding using negative controls and benchmarking to a randomized trial, (2) performed case-control sampling of the cohort to confirm empirically that the same estimate is obtained, (3) further restricted the sampling to person-days with a test, and (4) implemented additional features of a test-negative design. We also compared their performance in limited datasets. RESULTS: Estimated BNT162b2 vaccine effectiveness was similar under all four designs. Empirical results suggested limited residual confounding by healthcare-seeking behavior. Analyses in limited datasets showed evidence of residual confounding, with estimates biased downward in the cohort design and upward in the test-negative design. CONCLUSION: Vaccine effectiveness estimates under a cohort design with explicit target trial emulation and a test-negative design were similar when using rich information from the VA healthcare system, but diverged in opposite directions when using a limited dataset. In settings like ours with sufficient information on confounders and other key variables, the cohort design with explicit target trial emulation may be preferable as a principled approach that allows estimation of absolute risks and facilitates interpretation of effect estimates.

Metformin prescription for U.S. veterans with prediabetes, 2010-2019.

Affecting an estimated 88 million Americans, prediabetes increases the risk for developing type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM), and independently, cardiovascular disease, retinopathy, nephropathy, and neuropathy. Nevertheless, little is known about the use of metformin for diabetes prevention among patients in the Veterans Health Administration, the largest integrated healthcare system in the U.S. This is a retrospective observational cohort study of the proportion of Veterans with incident prediabetes who were prescribed metformin at the Veterans Health Administration from October 2010 to September 2019. Among 1,059,605 Veterans with incident prediabetes, 12,009 (1.1%) were prescribed metformin during an average 3.4 years of observation after diagnosis. Metformin prescribing was marginally higher (1.6%) among those with body mass index (BMI) ≥35 kg/m2, age <60 years, HbA1c≥6.0%, or those with a history of gestational diabetes, all subgroups at a higher risk for progression to T2DM. In a multivariable model, metformin was more likely to be prescribed for those with BMI ≥35 kg/m2 incidence rate ratio [IRR] 2.6 [95% confidence intervals (CI): 2.1-3.3], female sex IRR, 2.4 [95% CI: 1.8-3.3], HbA1c≥6% IRR, 1.93 [95% CI: 1.5-2.4], age <60 years IRR, 1.7 [95% CI: 1.3-2.3], hypertriglyceridemia IRR, 1.5 [95% CI: 1.2-1.9], hypertension IRR, 1.5 [95% CI: 1.1-2.1], Major Depressive Disorder IRR, 1.5 [95% CI: 1.1-2.0], or schizophrenia IRR, 2.1 [95% CI: 1.2-3.8]. Over 20% of Veterans with prediabetes attended a comprehensive structured lifestyle modification clinic or program. Among Veterans with prediabetes, metformin was prescribed to 1.1% overall, a proportion that marginally increased to 1.6% in the subset of individuals at highest risk for progression to T2DM.

Effectiveness of Nirmatrelvir-Ritonavir Against the Development of Post-COVID-19 Conditions Among U.S. Veterans : A Target Trial Emulation.

BACKGROUND: COVID-19 has been linked to the development of many post-COVID-19 conditions (PCCs) after acute infection. Limited information is available on the effectiveness of oral antivirals used to treat acute COVID-19 in preventing the development of PCCs. OBJECTIVE: To measure the effectiveness of outpatient treatment of COVID-19 with nirmatrelvir-ritonavir in preventing PCCs. DESIGN: Retrospective target trial emulation study comparing matched cohorts receiving nirmatrelvir-ritonavir versus no treatment. SETTING: Veterans Health Administration (VHA). PARTICIPANTS: Nonhospitalized veterans in VHA care who were at risk for severe COVID-19 and tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 during January through July 2022. INTERVENTION: Nirmatrelvir-ritonavir treatment for acute COVID-19. MEASUREMENTS: Cumulative incidence of 31 potential PCCs at 31 to 180 days after treatment or a matched index date, including cardiac, pulmonary, renal, thromboembolic, gastrointestinal, neurologic, mental health, musculoskeletal, endocrine, and general conditions and symptoms. RESULTS: Eighty-six percent of the participants were male, with a median age of 66 years, and 17.5% were unvaccinated. Baseline characteristics were well balanced between participants treated with nirmatrelvir-ritonavir and matched untreated comparators. No differences were observed between participants treated with nirmatrelvir-ritonavir (n = 9593) and their matched untreated comparators in the incidence of most PCCs examined individually or grouped by organ system, except for lower combined risk for venous thromboembolism and pulmonary embolism (subhazard ratio, 0.65 [95% CI, 0.44 to 0.97]; cumulative incidence difference, -0.29 percentage points [CI, -0.52 to -0.05 percentage points]). LIMITATIONS: Ascertainment of PCCs using International Classification of Diseases, 10th Revision, codes may be inaccurate. Evaluation of many outcomes could have resulted in spurious associations with combined thromboembolic events by chance. CONCLUSION: Out of 31 potential PCCs, only combined thromboembolic events seemed to be reduced by nirmatrelvir-ritonavir. PRIMARY FUNDING SOURCE: U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs.

Early predictors of chronic posttraumatic stress disorder symptom trajectories in U.S. Army soldiers deployed to the Iraq war zone.

The course of posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) symptoms varies among veterans of war zones, but sources of variation in long-term symptom course remain poorly understood. Modeling of symptom growth trajectories facilitates the understanding of predictors of individual outcomes over time. Although growth mixture modeling (GMM) has been applied to military populations, few studies have incorporated both predeployment and follow-up measurements over an extended time. In this prospective study, 1,087 U.S. Army soldiers with varying military occupational specialties and geographic locations were assessed before and after deployment to the Iraq war zone, with long-term follow-up assessment occurring at least 5 years after return from deployment. The primary outcome variable was the PTSD Checklist-Civilian Version summary score. GMM yielded four latent profiles, characterized as primarily asymptomatic (n = 194, 17.8%); postdeployment worsening symptoms (n = 84, 7.7%); mild symptoms (n = 320, 29.4%); and preexisting, with a chronic postdeployment elevation of symptoms (n = 489, 45.0%). Regression models comparing the primarily asymptomatic class to the symptomatic classes revealed that chronic symptom classes were associated with higher degrees of stress exposure, less predeployment social support, military reservist or veteran status at the most recent assessment, and poorer predeployment visual memory, ORs = 0.98-2.90. PTSD symptom course varies considerably over time after military deployment and is associated with potentially modifiable biopsychosocial factors that occur early in its course in addition to exposures and military status.

Anti-SARS-CoV-2 Pharmacotherapies Among Nonhospitalized US Veterans, January 2022 to January 2023.

Importance: Several pharmacotherapies have been authorized to treat nonhospitalized persons with symptomatic COVID-19. Longitudinal information on the use of these therapies is needed. Objective: To analyze trends and factors associated with prescription of outpatient COVID-19 pharmacotherapies within the Veterans Health Administration (VHA). Design, Setting, and Participants: This cohort study evaluated nonhospitalized veterans in VHA care who tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 from January 2022 through January 2023 using VHA and linked Community Care and Medicare databases. Exposures: Demographic characteristics, underlying medical conditions, COVID-19 vaccination, and regional and local systems of care, including Veterans Integrated Services Networks (VISNs). Main Outcomes and Measures: Monthly receipt of any COVID-19 pharmacotherapy (nirmatrelvir-ritonavir, molnupiravir, sotrovimab, or bebtelovimab) was described. Multivariable logistic regression was used to identify factors independently associated with receipt of any vs no COVID-19 pharmacotherapy. Results: Among 285 710 veterans (median [IQR] age, 63.1 [49.9-73.7] years; 247 358 males [86.6%]; 28 444 Hispanic [10.0%]; 61 269 Black [21.4%] and 198 863 White [69.6%]) who tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 between January 2022 and January 2023, the proportion receiving any pharmacotherapy increased from 3285 of 102 343 veterans (3.2%) in January 2022 to 5180 of 21 688 veterans (23.9%) in August 2022. The proportion declined to 2194 of 10 551 veterans (20.8%) by January 2023. Across VISNs, the range in proportion of patients who tested positive who received nirmatrelvir-ritonavir or molnupiravir during January 2023 was 41 of 692 veterans (5.9%) to 106 of 494 veterans (21.4%) and 2.1% to 120 of 1074 veterans (11.1%), respectively. Veterans receiving any treatment were more likely to be older (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] for ages 65-74 vs 50-64 years, 1.18; 95% CI, 1.14-1.22; aOR for ages ≥75 vs 50-64 years, 1.19; 95% CI, 1.15-1.23) and have a higher Charlson Comorbidity Index score (aOR for CCI ≥6 vs 0, 1.52; 95% CI, 1.44-1.59). Compared with White veterans, Black veterans (aOR, 1.06; 95% CI, 1.02-1.09) were more likely to receive treatment, and compared with non-Hispanic veterans, Hispanic veterans (aOR 1.06; 95% CI, 1.01-1.11) were more likely to receive treatment. Conclusions And Relevance: This study found that prescription of outpatient COVID-19 pharmacotherapies in the VHA peaked in August 2022 and declined thereafter. There were large regional differences in patterns of nirmatrelvir-ritonavir and molnupiravir use.

Effectiveness of COVID-19 Treatment With Nirmatrelvir-Ritonavir or Molnupiravir Among U.S. Veterans: Target Trial Emulation Studies With One-Month and Six-Month Outcomes.

BACKGROUND: Information about the effectiveness of oral antivirals in preventing short- and long-term COVID-19-related outcomes in the setting of Omicron variant transmission and COVID-19 vaccination is limited. OBJECTIVE: To measure the effectiveness of nirmatrelvir-ritonavir and molnupiravir for outpatient treatment of COVID-19. DESIGN: Three retrospective target trial emulation studies comparing matched cohorts of nirmatrelvir-ritonavir versus no treatment, molnupiravir versus no treatment, and nirmatrelvir-ritonavir versus molnupiravir. SETTING: Veterans Health Administration (VHA). PARTICIPANTS: Nonhospitalized veterans in VHA care who were at risk for severe COVID-19 and tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 during January through July 2022. INTERVENTION: Nirmatrelvir-ritonavir or molnupiravir pharmacotherapy. MEASUREMENTS: Incidence of any hospitalization or all-cause mortality at 30 days and from 31 to 180 days. RESULTS: Eighty-seven percent of participants were male; the median age was 66 years, and 18% were unvaccinated. Compared with matched untreated control participants, those treated with nirmatrelvir-ritonavir (n = 9607) had lower 30-day risk for hospitalization (22.07 vs. 30.32 per 1000 participants; risk difference [RD], -8.25 [95% CI, -12.27 to -4.23] per 1000 participants) and death (1.25 vs. 5.47 per 1000 participants; RD, -4.22 [CI, -5.45 to -3.00] per 1000 participants). Among persons alive at day 31, reductions were seen in 31- to 180-day incidence of death (hazard ratio, 0.66 [CI, 0.49 to 0.89]) but not hospitalization (subhazard ratio, 0.90 [CI, 0.79 to 1.02]). Molnupiravir-treated participants (n = 3504) had lower 30-day and 31- to 180-day risks for death (3.14 vs. 13.56 per 1000 participants at 30 days; RD, -10.42 [CI, -13.49 to -7.35] per 1000 participants; hazard ratio at 31 to 180 days, 0.67 [CI, 0.48 to 0.95]) but not hospitalization. A difference in 30-day or 31- to 180-day risk for hospitalization or death was not observed between matched nirmatrelvir- or molnupiravir-treated participants. LIMITATION: The date of COVID-19 symptom onset for most veterans was unknown. CONCLUSION: Nirmatrelvir-ritonavir was effective in reducing 30-day hospitalization and death. Molnupiravir was associated with a benefit for 30-day mortality but not hospitalization. Further reductions in mortality from 31 to 180 days were observed with both antivirals. PRIMARY FUNDING SOURCE: U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs.

Modeling the longitudinal changes of ancestry diversity in the Million Veteran Program.

BACKGROUND: The Million Veteran Program (MVP) participants represent 100 years of US history, including significant social and demographic changes over time. Our study assessed two aspects of the MVP: (i) longitudinal changes in population diversity and (ii) how these changes can be accounted for in genome-wide association studies (GWAS). To investigate these aspects, we divided MVP participants into five birth cohorts (N-range = 123,888 [born from 1943 to 1947] to 136,699 [born from 1948 to 1953]). RESULTS: Ancestry groups were defined by (i) HARE (harmonized ancestry and race/ethnicity) and (ii) a random-forest clustering approach using the 1000 Genomes Project and the Human Genome Diversity Project (1kGP + HGDP) reference panels (77 world populations representing six continental groups). In these groups, we performed GWASs of height, a trait potentially affected by population stratification. Birth cohorts demonstrate important trends in ancestry diversity over time. More recent HARE-assigned Europeans, Africans, and Hispanics had lower European ancestry proportions than older birth cohorts (0.010 < Cohen's d < 0.259, p < 7.80 × 10-4). Conversely, HARE-assigned East Asians showed an increase in European ancestry proportion over time. In GWAS of height using HARE assignments, genomic inflation due to population stratification was prevalent across all birth cohorts (linkage disequilibrium score regression intercept = 1.08 ± 0.042). The 1kGP + HGDP-based ancestry assignment significantly reduced the population stratification (mean intercept reduction = 0.045 ± 0.007, p < 0.05) confounding in the GWAS statistics. CONCLUSIONS: This study provides a characterization of ancestry diversity of the MVP cohort over time and compares two strategies to infer genetically defined ancestry groups by assessing differences in controlling population stratification in genome-wide association studies.

Correlates of Risk for Disinhibited Behaviors in the Million Veteran Program Cohort.

Background: Many psychiatric outcomes are thought to share a common etiological pathway reflecting behavioral disinhibition, generally referred to as externalizing disorders (EXT). Recent genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have demonstrated the overlap between EXT and important aspects of veterans' health, such as suicide-related behaviors, substance use disorders, and other medical conditions. Methods: We conducted a series of phenome-wide association studies (PheWAS) of polygenic scores (PGS) for EXT, and comorbid psychiatric problems (depression, schizophrenia, and suicide attempt) in an ancestrally diverse cohort of U.S. veterans (N = 560,824), using diagnostic codes from electronic health records. We conducted ancestry-specific PheWASs of EXT PGS in the European, African, and Hispanic/Latin American ancestries. To determine if associations were driven by risk for other comorbid problems, we performed a conditional PheWAS, covarying for comorbid psychiatric problems (European ancestries only). Lastly, to adjust for unmeasured confounders we performed a within-family analysis of significant associations from the main PheWAS in full-siblings (N = 12,127, European ancestries only). Results: The EXT PGS was associated with 619 outcomes across all bodily systems, of which, 188 were independent of risk for comorbid problems of PGS. Effect sizes ranged from OR = 1.02 (95% CI = 1.01, 1.03) for overweight/obesity to OR = 1.44 (95% CI = 1.42, 1.47) for viral hepatitis C. Of the significant outcomes 73 (11.9%) and 26 (4.5%) were significant in the African and Hispanic/Latin American results, respectively. Within-family analyses uncovered robust associations between EXT and consequences of substance use disorders, including liver disease, chronic airway obstruction, and viral hepatitis C. Conclusion: Our results demonstrate a shared polygenic basis of EXT across populations of diverse ancestries and independent of risk for other psychiatric problems. The strongest associations with EXT were for diagnoses related to substance use disorders and their sequelae. Overall, we highlight the potential negative consequences of EXT for health and functioning in the US veteran population.

Correlates of suicidal behaviors and genetic risk among United States veterans with schizophrenia or bipolar I disorder.

Objective: Persons diagnosed with schizophrenia (SCZ) or bipolar I disorder (BPI) are at high risk for self-injurious behavior, suicidal ideation, and suicidal behaviors (SB). Characterizing associations between diagnosed mental and physical health problems, prior pharmacological treatments, and aggregate genetic factors has potential to inform risk stratification and mitigation strategies. Methods: In this study of 3,942 SCZ and 5,414 BPI patients receiving VA care, self-reported SB and ideation were assessed using the Columbia Suicide Severity Rating Scale (C-SSRS). These cross-sectional data were integrated with electronic health records (EHR), and compared by lifetime diagnoses, treatment histories, follow-up screenings, and mortality data. Polygenic scores (PGS) for traits related to psychiatric disorders, substance use, and cognition were constructed using available genomic data, and exploratory genome-wide association studies were performed to identify and prioritize specific loci. Results: Only 20% of veterans who self-reported SB had a corroborating ICD-9/10 code in their EHR; and among those who denied prior behaviors, more than 20% reported new-onset SB at follow-up. SB were associated with a range of psychiatric and non-psychiatric diagnoses, and with treatment with specific classes of psychotropic medications (e.g., antidepressants, antipsychotics, etc.). PGS for externalizing behaviors, smoking, suicide attempt, and major depressive disorder were also associated with attempt and ideation. Conclusions: Among individuals with a diagnosed mental illness, a GWAS for SB did not yield any significant loci. Self-reported SB were strongly associated with clinical variables across several EHR domains. Overall, clinical and polygenic analyses point to sequelae of substance-use related behaviors and other psychiatric comorbidities as strong correlates of prior and subsequent SB. Nonetheless, past SB was frequently not documented in clinical settings, underscoring the value of regular screening based on direct, in-person assessments, especially among high-risk individuals.

A Network Analysis of Cigarette Craving.

INTRODUCTION: Craving is considered a central process to addictive behavior including cigarette smoking, although the clinical utility of craving relies on how it is defined and measured. Network analysis enables examining the network structure of craving symptoms, identifying the most central symptoms of cigarette craving, and improving our understanding of craving and its measurement. AIMS AND METHODS: This study used network analysis to identify the central symptoms of self-reported cigarette craving as measured by the Craving Experience Questionnaire, which assesses both craving strength and craving frequency. Data were obtained from baseline of a randomized controlled trial of mindfulness training for smoking cessation. RESULTS: The most central symptoms in an overall cigarette craving network were the frequency of imagining its smell, imagining its taste, and intrusive thoughts. The most central symptoms of both craving frequency and craving strength sub-networks were imagining its taste, the urge to have it, and intrusive thoughts. CONCLUSIONS: The most central craving symptoms reported by individuals in treatment for cigarette smoking were from the frequency domain, demonstrating the value of assessing craving frequency along with craving strength. Central craving symptoms included multisensory imagery (taste, smell), intrusive thoughts, and urge, providing additional evidence that these symptoms may be important to consider in craving measurement and intervention. Findings provide insight into the symptoms that are central to craving, contributing to a better understanding of cigarette cravings, and suggesting potential targets for clinical interventions. IMPLICATIONS: This study used network analysis to identify central symptoms of cigarette craving. Both craving frequency and strength were assessed. The most central symptoms of cigarette craving were related to craving frequency. Central symptoms included multisensory imagery, intrusive thoughts, and urge. Central symptoms might be targeted by smoking cessation treatment.

Effectiveness of COVID-19 treatment with nirmatrelvir-ritonavir or molnupiravir among U.S. Veterans: target trial emulation studies with one-month and six-month outcomes.

Background: Information about the effectiveness of oral antivirals in preventing short- and long-term COVID-19-related outcomes during the Omicron surge is limited. We sought to determine the effectiveness of nirmatrelvir-ritonavir and molnupiravir for the outpatient treatment of COVID-19. Methods: We conducted three retrospective target trial emulation studies comparing matched patient cohorts who received nirmatrelvir-ritonavir versus no treatment, molnupiravir versus no treatment, and nirmatrelvir-ritonavir versus molnupiravir in the Veterans Health Administration (VHA). Participants were Veterans in VHA care at risk for severe COVID-19 who tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 in the outpatient setting during January and February 2022. Primary outcomes included all-cause 30-day hospitalization or death and 31-180-day incidence of acute or long-term care admission, death, or post-COVID-19 conditions. For 30-day outcomes, we calculated unadjusted risk rates, risk differences, and risk ratios. For 31-180-day outcomes, we used unadjusted time-to-event analyses. Results: Participants were 90% male with median age 67 years and 26% unvaccinated. Compared to matched untreated controls, nirmatrelvir-ritonavir-treated participants (N=1,587) had a lower 30-day risk of hospitalization (27.10/1000 versus 41.06/1000, risk difference [RD] - 13.97, 95% CI -23.85 to -4.09) and death (3.15/1000 versus 14.86/1000, RD -11.71, 95% CI - 16.07 to -7.35). Among persons who were alive at day 31, further significant reductions in 31-180-day incidence of hospitalization (sub-hazard ratio 1.07, 95% CI 0.83 to 1.37) or death (hazard ratio 0.61, 95% CI 0.35 to 1.08) were not observed. Molnupiravir-treated participants aged ≥65 years (n=543) had a lower combined 30-day risk of hospitalization or death (55.25/1000 versus 82.35/1000, RD -27.10, 95% CI -50.63 to -3.58). A statistically significant difference in 30-day or 31-180-day risk of hospitalization or death was not observed between matched nirmatrelvir- or molnupiravir-treated participants. Incidence of most post-COVID conditions was similar across comparison groups. Conclusions: Nirmatrelvir-ritonavir was highly effective in preventing 30-day hospitalization and death. Short-term benefit from molnupiravir was observed in older groups. Significant reductions in adverse outcomes from 31-180 days were not observed with either antiviral.

Early Adoption of Anti-SARS-CoV-2 Pharmacotherapies Among US Veterans With Mild to Moderate COVID-19, January and February 2022.

Importance: Older adults and individuals with medical comorbidities are at increased risk for severe COVID-19. Several pharmacotherapies demonstrated to reduce the risk of COVID-19-related hospitalization and death have been authorized for use. Objective: To describe factors associated with receipt of outpatient COVID-19 pharmacotherapies in the Veterans Affairs (VA) health care system. Design, Settings, and Participants: This cohort study assessed outpatient veterans with risk factors for severe COVID-19 who tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 during January and February 2022. The setting was the VA health care system, the largest integrated health care system in the US. Exposures: Demographic characteristics, place of residence, underlying medical conditions, and COVID-19 vaccination. Main Outcomes and Measures: The odds of receipt of any COVID-19 pharmacotherapy, including sotrovimab, nirmatrelvir boosted with ritonavir, molnupiravir, or remdesivir were estimated using multivariable logistic regression. Results: Among 111 717 veterans included in this study (median [IQR] age, 60 [46-72] years; 96 482 [86.4%] male, 23 362 [20.9%] Black, 10 740 [9.6%] Hispanic, 75 973 [68.0%] White) who tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 during January to February 2022, 4233 (3.8%) received any COVID-19 pharmacotherapy, including 2870 of 92 396 (3.1%) in January and 1363 of 19 321 (7.1%) in February. Among a subset of 56 285 veterans with documented COVID-19-related symptoms in the 30 days preceding a positive SARS-CoV-2 test, 3079 (5.5%) received any COVID-19 pharmacotherapy. Untreated veterans had a median (IQR) age of 60 (46-71) years and a median (IQR) of 3 (2-5) underlying medical conditions. Veterans receiving any treatment were more likely to be older (aged 65 to 74 years vs 50 to 64 years: adjusted odds ratio [aOR], 1.66 [95% CI, 1.52-1.80]; aged at least 75 years vs 50 to 64 years: aOR, 1.67 [95% CI, 1.53-1.84]) and have a higher number of underlying conditions (at least 5 conditions vs 1 to 2 conditions: aOR, 2.17 [95% CI, 1.98-2.39]). Compared with White veterans, Black veterans (aOR, 0.65 [95% CI, 0.60-0.72]) were less likely to receive treatment; and compared with non-Hispanic veterans, Hispanic veterans (aOR, 0.88 [95% CI, 0.77-0.99]) were less likely to receive treatment. There were 16 546 courses of sotrovimab, nirmatrelvir, and molnupiravir allocated across the VA during this period. Conclusions and Relevance: In this cohort study of veterans who tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 during January and February when supply of outpatient COVID-19 pharmacotherapies was limited, prescription of these pharmacotherapies was underused, and many veterans with risk factors for severe COVID-19 did not receive treatment. Veterans from minority racial and ethnic groups were less likely to receive any pharmacotherapy.

Penetrance and Pleiotropy of Polygenic Risk Scores for Schizophrenia, Bipolar Disorder, and Depression Among Adults in the US Veterans Affairs Health Care System.

Importance: Serious mental illnesses, including schizophrenia, bipolar disorder, and depression, are heritable, highly multifactorial disorders and major causes of disability worldwide. Objective: To benchmark the penetrance of current neuropsychiatric polygenic risk scores (PRSs) in the Veterans Health Administration health care system and to explore associations between PRS and broad categories of human disease via phenome-wide association studies. Design, Setting, and Participants: Extensive Veterans Health Administration's electronic health records were assessed from October 1999 to January 2021, and an embedded cohort of 9378 individuals with confirmed diagnoses of schizophrenia or bipolar 1 disorder were found. The performance of schizophrenia, bipolar disorder, and major depression PRSs were compared in participants of African or European ancestry in the Million Veteran Program (approximately 400 000 individuals), and associations between PRSs and 1650 disease categories based on ICD-9/10 billing codes were explored. Last, genomic structural equation modeling was applied to derive novel PRSs indexing common and disorder-specific genetic factors. Analysis took place from January 2021 to January 2022. Main Outcomes and Measures: Diagnoses based on in-person structured clinical interviews were compared with ICD-9/10 billing codes. PRSs were constructed using summary statistics from genome-wide association studies of schizophrenia, bipolar disorder, and major depression. Results: Of 707 299 enrolled study participants, 459 667 were genotyped at the time of writing; 84 806 were of broadly African ancestry (mean [SD] age, 58 [12.1] years) and 314 909 were of broadly European ancestry (mean [SD] age, 66.4 [13.5] years). Among 9378 individuals with confirmed diagnoses of schizophrenia or bipolar 1 disorder, 8962 (95.6%) were correctly identified using ICD-9/10 codes (2 or more). Among those of European ancestry, PRSs were robustly associated with having received a diagnosis of schizophrenia (odds ratio [OR], 1.81 [95% CI, 1.76-1.87]; P < 10-257) or bipolar disorder (OR, 1.42 [95% CI, 1.39-1.44]; P < 10-295). Corresponding effect sizes in participants of African ancestry were considerably smaller for schizophrenia (OR, 1.35 [95% CI, 1.29-1.42]; P < 10-38) and bipolar disorder (OR, 1.16 [95% CI, 1.11-1.12]; P < 10-10). Neuropsychiatric PRSs were associated with increased risk for a range of psychiatric and physical health problems. Conclusions and Relevance: Using diagnoses confirmed by in-person structured clinical interviews and current neuropsychiatric PRSs, the validity of an electronic health records-based phenotyping approach in US veterans was demonstrated, highlighting the potential of PRSs for disentangling biological and mediated pleiotropy.

A Population-Level Analysis of the Protective Effects of Androgen Deprivation Therapy Against COVID-19 Disease Incidence and Severity.

Background: The incidence and severity of coronavirus disease 19 (COVID-19) is substantially higher in men. Sex hormones may be a potential mechanism for differences in COVID-19 outcome in men and women. We hypothesized that men treated with androgen deprivation therapy (ADT) have lower incidence and severity of COVID-19. Methods: We conducted an observational study of male Veterans treated in the Veterans Health Administration from February 15th to July 15th, 2020. We developed a propensity score model to predict the likelihood to undergo Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) testing. We performed multivariable logistic regression modeling adjusted with inverse probability weighting to examine the relationship between ADT and COVID-19 incidence. We conducted logistic regression analysis among COVID-19 patients to test the association between ADT and COVID-19 severity. Results: We identified a large cohort of 246,087 VA male patients who had been tested for SARS-CoV-2, of whom 3,057 men were exposed to ADT, and 36,096 men with cancer without ADT. Of these, 295 ADT patients and 2,427 cancer patients not on ADT had severe COVID-19 illness. In the primary, propensity-weighted comparison of ADT patients to cancer patients not on ADT, ADT was associated with decreased likelihood of testing positive for SARS-CoV-2 (adjusted OR, 0.88 [95% CI, 0.81-0.95]; p = 0.001). Furthermore, ADT was associated with fewer severe COVID-19 outcomes (OR 0.72 [95% CI 0.53-0.96]; p = 0.03). Conclusion: ADT is associated with reduced incidence and severity of COVID-19 amongst male Veterans. Testosterone and androgen receptor signaling may confer increased risk for SARS-CoV-2 infection and contribute to severe COVID-19 pathophysiology in men.

Association of Gulf War Illness with Characteristics in Deployed vs. Non-Deployed Gulf War Era Veterans in the Cooperative Studies Program 2006/Million Veteran Program 029 Cohort: A Cross-Sectional Analysis.

Gulf War Illness (GWI), a chronic multisymptom illness with a complex and uncertain etiology and pathophysiology, is highly prevalent among veterans deployed to the 1990-1991 GW. We examined how GWI phenotypes varied by demographic and military characteristics among GW-era veterans. Data were from the VA's Cooperative Studies Program 2006/Million Veteran Program (MVP) 029 cohort, Genomics of GWI. From June 2018 to March 2019, 109,976 MVP enrollees (out of a total of over 676,000) were contacted to participate in the 1990-1991 GW-era Survey. Of 109,976 eligible participants, 45,169 (41.1%) responded to the 2018-2019 survey, 35,902 respondents met study inclusion criteria, 13,107 deployed to the GW theater. GWI phenotypes were derived from Kansas (KS) and Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) GWI definitions: (a) KS Symptoms (KS Sym+), (b) KS GWI (met symptom criteria and without exclusionary health conditions) [KS GWI: Sym+/Dx-], (c) CDC GWI and (d) CDC GWI Severe. The prevalence of each phenotype was 67.1% KS Sym+, 21.5% KS Sym+/Dx-, 81.1% CDC GWI, and 18.6% CDC GWI severe. These findings affirm the persistent presence of GWI among GW veterans providing a foundation for further exploration of biological and environmental underpinnings of this condition.

Detecting change in psychiatric functioning in clinical trials for cocaine use disorder: sensitivity of the Addiction Severity Index and Brief Symptom Inventory.

BACKGROUND: Assessment instruments commonly used in clinical trials to measure functional outcomes in substance users may lack sensitivity to detect change during treatment, potentially limiting findings regarding benefits of reduced drug use. This study evaluated the sensitivity of the Addiction Severity Index (ASI) to detect change in psychiatric functioning among cocaine users. METHODS: Data were pooled across five clinical trials for cocaine use disorder (N = 492) that included a 12-week treatment period and 6-month follow-up. Within-person cohen's d' was used to evaluate effect size of change on the Psychiatric Composite Score of the ASI (ASI-Psych) and Global Severity Index (GSI) of the Brief Symptom Inventory, as well as cocaine use. RESULTS: Effect sizes were larger for GSI than ASI-Psych from baseline to week 12 (GSI d' = 0.59; ASI-Psych d' = 0.16), and 6-month follow-up (GSI d' = 0.48; ASI-Psych d' = 0.10). For those with non-zero ASI-Psych at baseline (n = 252), medium effect sizes were found over the 12-week period (d' = 0.53) and 6-month follow-up (d' = 0.47). Effect sizes for change in days of cocaine use were most similar to GSI in either sample. CONCLUSIONS: The ASI Psychiatric Composite Score may have limited sensitivity to detect change in psychiatric functioning among clinical trial participants who reduce cocaine use. It may be useful for detecting change amongst those reporting some psychiatric problems at the start of treatment. Future research should consider an instrument's sensitivity to change when assessing the potential functional benefits of reducing cocaine use.