The epidemiological and economic effects from systematic depopulation of Norwegian marine salmon farms infected with pancreas disease virus.

Pancreas disease (PD) is a viral disease associated with significant economic losses in Scottish, Irish, and Norwegian marine salmon aquaculture. In this paper, we investigate how disease-triggered harvest strategies (systematic depopulation of infected marine salmon farms) towards PD can affect disease dynamics and salmon producer profits in an endemic area in the southwestern part of Norway. Four different types of disease-triggered harvest strategies were evaluated over a four-year period (2011-2014), each scenario with different disease-screening procedures, timing for initiating the harvest interventions on infected cohorts, and levels of farmer compliance to the strategy. Our approach applies a spatio-temporal stochastic model for simulating the spread of PD in the separate scenarios. Results from these simulations were then used in cost-benefit analyses to estimate the net benefits of different harvest strategies over time. We find that the most aggressive strategy, in which infected farms are harvested without delay, was most efficient in terms of reducing infection pressure in the area and providing economic benefits for the studied group of salmon producers. On the other hand, lower farm compliance leads to higher infection pressure and less economic benefits. Model results further highlight trade-offs in strategies between those that primarily benefit individual producers and those that have collective benefits, suggesting a need for institutional mechanisms that address these potential tensions.

The economic benefits of disease triggered early harvest: A case study of pancreas disease in farmed Atlantic salmon from Norway.

Pancreas disease (PD) is an important viral disease in Norwegian, Scottish and Irish aquaculture causing biological losses in terms of reduced growth, mortality, increased feed conversion ratio, and carcass downgrading. We developed a bio-economic model to investigate the economic benefits of a disease triggered early harvesting strategy to control PD losses. In this strategy, the salmon farm adopts a PCR (Polymerase Chain Reaction) diagnostic screening program to monitor the virus levels in stocks. Virus levels are used to forecast a clinical outbreak of pancreas disease, which then initiates a prescheduled harvest of the stock to avoid disease losses. The model is based on data inputs from national statistics, literature, company data, and an expert panel, and use stochastic simulations to account for the variation and/or uncertainty associated with disease effects and selected production expenditures. With the model, we compared the impacts of a salmon farm undergoing prescheduled harvest versus the salmon farm going through a PD outbreak. We also estimated the direct costs of a PD outbreak as the sum of biological losses, treatment costs, prevention costs, and other additional costs, less the costs of insurance pay-outs. Simulation results suggests that the economic benefit from a prescheduled harvest is positive once the average salmon weight at the farm has reached 3.2kg or more for an average Norwegian salmon farm stocked with 1,000,000smolts and using average salmon sales prices for 2013. The direct costs from a PD outbreak occurring nine months (average salmon weight 1.91kg) after sea transfer and using 2013 sales prices was on average estimated at NOK 55.4 million (5%, 50% and 90% percentile: 38.0, 55.8 and 72.4) (NOK=€0.128 in 2013). Sensitivity analyses revealed that the losses from a PD outbreak are sensitive to feed- and salmon sales prices, and that high 2013 sales prices contributed to substantial losses associated with a PD outbreak.

Controlling emerging infectious diseases in salmon aquaculture.

In this paper, the authors review the impacts of diseases facing salmon aquaculture, drawing lessons from terrestrial animal diseases. They discuss the implementation of current control strategies, taking into account transmission patterns (vertical versus horizontal), disease reservoirs, and interactions with wild fish. In addition, the decision-making context of aquatic disease control and the institutional organisation of control strategies are considered, with particular emphasis on the roles and responsibilities of regulatory authorities and the private sector. Case studies on the emergence and control of infectious salmon anaemia worldwide and pancreas disease in Norway are used to examine some of the controversies that may influence decision making and provide lessons for the future.

Modelling salmon lice, Lepeophtheirus salmonis, reproduction on farmed Atlantic salmon, Salmo salar L.

The aim of this study was to model sea lice levels and the effect on reproduction by a stochastic simulation model and to evaluate the uncertainty of lice estimates based upon counts. Two empirical data sets were examined to parameterize the models. An overall fit of the data to the Poisson distribution was found and thus was used as the base of the stochastic models. In the model, salmon lice reproduction is not linear with the number of adult females and at low lice loads a smaller proportion of the adult female lice will reproduce. Depending on the variance structure, it was estimated that between 40% and 60% of the adult female lice will reproduce at an abundance of 0.5 adult females per fish. Lice counts, especially when examining few fish at low lice loads, are uncertain and at a true abundance of 0.1 one may count between 0 and 5 lice when examining 10 fish. Understanding the dynamics of sea lice reproduction is a key factor in the development of sustainable control strategies.

Methods for investigating patterns of mortality and quantifying cause-specific mortality in sea-farmed Atlantic salmon Salmo salar.

Methods for investigating patterns of mortality and quantifying cause-specific mortality in Atlantic salmon Salmo salar farming were developed. The methods were further used to investigate mortality and patterns of mortality for the first 3 mo after sea transfer in the 2006 year-class autumn smolts (SO) of Norwegian farmed Atlantic salmon. In the study population, which consisted of 20 pens at 10 sites, cause-specific mortality was examined by 11 fish health professionals during 8 visits to each pen. Cause-specific mortality proportions were used to convert crude mortality into cause-specific mortality. Cumulative mortality in the study period was 2.1% in the study population compared with 3.7% for the 2006 year-class SOs in the national database. Of this cumulative mortality, 73 and 59% took place in 20% of the pens in the study and the reference population, respectively. Daily mortality rates in the study population showed a variation from 0 to 2376 per 100,000 fish where the majority of mortality was observed during disease outbreaks. All study pens had periods of low baseline mortality and some pens had no increased mortality during the study period. Of 2088 dead fish examined, 92% (1929 fish) were assigned a specific cause of death, and in 97% of these 1929 fish the investigators reported the given cause of death to be likely or very likely. Ulcers were the main cause of death, accounting for 43% of the assigned mortality, and infectious agents were involved in 64% of the total mortality. The study shows that probable causes of death can be established in Atlantic salmon farming and their contribution to total mortality measured.

Association of spinal deformity and vaccine-induced abdominal lesions in harvest-sized Atlantic salmon, Salmo salar L.

Spinal deformities in Atlantic salmon, Salmo salar L., have been described as a disease of multifactorial origin for which vaccines and time of vaccination have been suggested as risk factors. A vaccine efficacy trial where spinal deformity became evident was continued by the observational study reported here. In the preharvest part of the study 17 months post-sea transfer, there was a prevalence of 11.3% spinal deformity, with deformities present only in one vaccine group indicating a strong vaccine involvement. At slaughter, the prevalence of spinal deformities was 11.7%, and deformed fish had only 62% of normal slaughter weight. Visual analogue scales (VAS) were used for continuous recordings of vaccine-induced abdominal lesions and deformity. A logistic regression model associating presence of spinal deformity with markers of abdominal lesions was developed. The odds ratio for spinal deformity was 5.7 (95% CI: 3.4-9.4) for each unit increase in adhesion score (0-6) and 4.9 (2.9-3.4) for each unit increase in melanin on abdominal organs (0-3). Lesions in the dorsal caudal part of the abdomen gave an odds ratio for spinal deformity of 2.2.