Predicting posthospitalization falls in Brazilian older adults: External validation of the Carpenter instrument.

OBJECTIVES: This study sought to explore and externally validate the Carpenter instrument's efficacy in predicting postdischarge fall risk among older adults admitted to the emergency department (ED) for reasons other than falls or related injuries. METHODS: A prospective cohort study was conducted on 779 patients aged ≥ 65 years from a tertiary hospital in São Paulo, Brazil, who were monitored for up to 6 months post-ED hospitalization. The Carpenter instrument, which evaluates the four risk factors nonhealing foot sores, self-reported depression, inability to self-clip toenails, and prior falls, was utilized to assess fall risk. Follow-up by telephone occurred at 30, 90, and 180 days to identify falls and mortality. Fine-Gray models estimated the predictive power of Carpenter instrument for future falls, considering death as a competing event and sociodemographic factors, frail status, and clinical measures as confounders. RESULTS: Among 779 patients, 68 (9%) experienced a fall within 180 days post-ED admission, and 88 (11%) died. The majority were male (54%), with a mean age of 79 years. Upon utilizing the Carpenter score, those with a higher fall risk (≥2 points) displayed more comorbidities, greater frailty, and increased clinical severity at baseline. Regression analyses showed that every additional point on the Carpenter score increased the hazard of falls by 73%. Two primary contributors to its predictive potential were identified: a history of falls in the preceding year and an inability to self-clip toenails. However, the instrument's discriminative accuracy was suboptimal, with an area under the curve of 0.62. CONCLUSIONS: While the Carpenter instrument associated with a higher 6-month postadmission fall risk among older adults post-ED visit, its accuracy for individual patient decision making was limited. Given the significant impact of falls on health outcomes and health care costs, refining risk assessment tools remains essential. Future research should focus on enhancing these assessments and devising targeted proactive strategies.

Gut microbiota disturbances in hospitalized older adults with malnutrition and clinical outcomes.

OBJECTIVE: Malnutrition is one of the most threatening conditions in geriatric populations. The gut microbiota has an important role in the host's metabolic and muscular health: however, its interplay with disease-related malnutrition is not well understood. We aimed to identify the association of malnutrition with the gut microbiota and predict clinical outcomes in hospitalized acutely ill older adults. METHODS: We performed a secondary longitudinal analysis in 108 geriatric patients from a prospective cohort evaluated at admission and 72 h of hospitalization. We collected clinical, demographic, nutritional, and 16S rRNA gene-sequenced gut microbiota data. Microbiota diversity, overall composition, and differential abundance were calculated and compared between patients with and without malnutrition. Microbiota features associated with malnutrition were used to predict clinical outcomes. RESULTS: Patients with malnutrition (51%) had a different microbiota composition compared to those who were well-nourished during hospitalization (ANOSIM R = 0.079, P = 0.003). Patients with severe malnutrition showed poorer α-diversity at admission (Shannon P = 0.012, Simpson P = 0.018) and follow-up (Shannon P = 0.023, Chao1 P = 0.008). Differential abundance of Lachnospiraceae NK4A136 group, Subdoligranulum, and Faecalibacterium prausnitzii were significantly lower and inversely associated with malnutrition, while Corynebacterium, Ruminococcaceae Incertae Sedis, and Fusobacterium were significantly increased and positively associated with malnutrition. Corynebacterium, Ruminococcaceae Incertae Sedis, and the overall composition were important predictors of critical care in patients with malnutrition during hospitalization. CONCLUSION: Older adults with malnutrition, especially in a severe stage, may be subject to substantial gut microbial disturbances during hospitalization. The gut microbiota profile of patients with malnutrition might help us to predict worse clinical outcomes.

Clinical characteristics and outcomes of COVID-19 patients with preexisting dementia: a large multicenter propensity-matched Brazilian cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Although dementia has emerged as an important risk factor for severe SARS-CoV-2 infection, results on COVID-19-related complications and mortality are not consistent. We examined the clinical presentations and outcomes of COVID-19 in a multicentre cohort of in-hospital patients, comparing those with and without dementia. METHODS: This retrospective observational study comprises COVID-19 laboratory-confirmed patients aged ≥ 60 years admitted to 38 hospitals from 19 cities in Brazil. Data were obtained from electronic hospital records. A propensity score analysis was used to match patients with and without dementia (up to 3:1) according to age, sex, comorbidities, year, and hospital of admission. Our primary outcome was in-hospital mortality. We also assessed admission to the intensive care unit (ICU), invasive mechanical ventilation (IMV), kidney replacement therapy (KRT), sepsis, nosocomial infection, and thromboembolic events. RESULTS: Among 1,556 patients included in the study, 405 (4.5%) had a diagnosis of dementia and 1,151 were matched controls. When compared to matched controls, patients with dementia had a lower frequency of dyspnoea, cough, myalgia, headache, ageusia, and anosmia; and higher frequency of fever and delirium. They also had a lower frequency of ICU admission (32.7% vs. 47.1%, p < 0.001) and shorter ICU length of stay (7 vs. 9 days, p < 0.026), and a lower frequency of sepsis (17% vs. 24%, p = 0.005), KRT (6.4% vs. 13%, p < 0.001), and IVM (4.6% vs. 9.8%, p = 0.002). There were no differences in hospital mortality between groups. CONCLUSION: Clinical manifestations of COVID-19 differ between older inpatients with and without dementia. We observed that dementia alone could not explain the higher short-term mortality following severe COVID-19. Therefore, clinicians should consider other risk factors such as acute morbidity severity and baseline frailty when evaluating the prognosis of older adults with dementia hospitalised with COVID-19.

Delirium detection tools show varying completion rates and positive score rates when used at scale in routine practice in general hospital settings: A systematic review.

BACKGROUND: Multiple short delirium detection tools have been validated in research studies and implemented in routine care, but there has been little study of these tools in real-world conditions. This systematic review synthesized literature reporting completion rates and/or delirium positive score rates of detection tools in large clinical populations in general hospital settings. METHODS: PROSPERO (CRD42022385166). Medline, Embase, PsycINFO, CINAHL, and gray literature were searched from 1980 to December 31, 2022. Included studies or audit reports used a validated delirium detection tool performed directly with the patient as part of routine care in large clinical populations (n ≥ 1000) within a general acute hospital setting. Narrative synthesis was performed. RESULTS: Twenty-two research studies and four audit reports were included. Tools used alone or in combination were the Confusion Assessment Method (CAM), 4 'A's Test (4AT), Delirium Observation Screening Scale (DOSS), Brief CAM (bCAM), Nursing Delirium Screening Scale (NuDESC), and Intensive Care Delirium Screening Checklist (ICDSC). Populations and settings varied and tools were used at different stages and frequencies in the patient journey, including on admission only; inpatient, daily or more frequently; on admission and as inpatient; inpatient post-operatively. Tool completion rates ranged from 19% to 100%. Admission positive score rates ranged from: CAM 8%-51%; 4AT 13%-20%. Inpatient positive score rates ranged from: CAM 2%-20%, DOSS 6%-42%, and NuDESC 5-13%. Postoperative positive score rates were 21% and 28% (4AT). All but two studies had moderate-high risk of bias. CONCLUSIONS: This systematic review of delirium detection tool implementation in large acute patient populations found clinically important variability in tool completion rates, and in delirium positive score rates relative to expected delirium prevalence. This study highlights a need for greater reporting and analysis of relevant healthcare systems data. This is vital to advance understanding of effective delirium detection in routine care.

Fairness: from the guts to the brain - a critical examination by Atlantic fellows of the Global Brain Health Institute.

In January 2023, the Global Brain Health Institute (GBHI) at UCSF hosted an online salon to discuss the relationship between fairness and brain health equity. We aimed to address two primary questions: first, how is fairness perceived by the public, and how does it manifest in societal constructs like equity and justice? Second, what are the neurobiological foundations of fairness, and how do they impact brain health? Drawing from interdisciplinary fields such as philosophy, psychology, and neuroscience, the salon served as a platform for participants to share diverse perspectives on fairness. Fairness is a multifaceted concept encompassing equity, justice, empathy, opportunity, non-discrimination, and the Golden Rule, but by delving into its evolutionary origins, we can verify its deep-rooted presence in both human and animal behaviors. Real-world experiments, such as Frans de Waal's capuchin monkey study, have proven enlightening, elucidating many mechanisms that have shaped our neurobiological responses to fairness. Contemporary cognitive neuroscience research further emphasizes the role of neuroanatomical areas and neurotransmitters in encoding fairness-related processes. We also discussed the critical interconnection between fairness and healthcare equity, particularly its implications for brain health. These values are instrumental in promoting social justice and improving health outcomes. In our polarized social landscape, there are rising concerns about a potential decrease in fairness and prosocial behaviors due to isolated social bubbles. We stress the urgency for interventions that enhance perspective-taking, reasoning, and empathy. Overall, fairness is vital to fostering an equitable society and its subsequent influence on brain health outcomes.

The Confusion Assessment Method in action: Implementation of a protocol to increase delirium screening and diagnosis.

The use of the Confusion Assessment Method (CAM) for delirium assessment in real-life can be inconsistent. We examined the impact of a protocol on delirium screening and detection in hospitalized older adults using the CAM. We analyzed data from 32,338 admissions to a quaternary hospital between 2018 and 2022. We assessed the percentage of admissions screened for delirium, adherence to daily screening, positive screening, and overlap with ICD-10 coding. The percentage of admissions screened for delirium increased from 74% in 2018 to 98.7% in 2022. Adherence to daily screening was achieved in 24.5% of admissions, and the percentage of positive screenings fluctuated between 8.4% and 11.5%. Among the admissions with a delirium-related ICD-10 code, 32% had a positive screening, 62% were negative, and 6% remained unscreened. While implementing a protocol increased the proportion of admissions screened for delirium, adherence to daily screening and consistency of positive delirium screenings remain areas for improvement.

The pervasive association between political ideology and COVID-19 vaccine uptake in Brazil: an ecologic study.

BACKGROUND: Despite the unequivocal benefits of vaccination, vaccine coverage has been falling in several countries in the past few years. Studies suggest that vaccine hesitancy is an increasingly significant phenomenon affecting adherence to vaccines. More recently, during the COVID-19 pandemic, political views have emerged as an additional influencing factor for vaccine hesitancy. METHODS: In this ecologic study, we used information from publicly available databases to investigate the association between political ideology, depicted by the percentage of votes for the right-wing candidate Jair Bolsonaro in the presidential elections of 2018 and 2022, and COVID-19 vaccination in Brazilian municipalities. The primary endpoint was the COVID-19 vaccination index, calculated as the number of COVID-19 vaccine doses administered up to September 2022 divided by the number of inhabitants in each municipality. The analysis was conducted using Pearson correlation coefficients and linear regression models adjusted for HDI, the percentage of male voters, the percentage of voters who were older than 50 years old, and the percentage of voters with a middle school education or less. In addition, we explored whether the effect of the percentage of Bolsonaro voters on the COVID-19 vaccination index was modified in different quartiles of HDI using an interaction term. RESULTS: Five thousand five hundred sixty-three Brazilian municipalities were included in the analysis. For both the 2018 and 2022 elections, the percentage of votes for Jair Bolsonaro was significantly and inversely associated with COVID-19 vaccine uptake after adjustment for the sociodemographic characteristics of the voters (change in mean vaccination index in 2018 for each 1% increase in Bolsonaro voters -0.11, 95% confidence interval [CI] -0.13 to -0.08, p < 0.001; change in mean vaccination index in 2022 for each 1% increase in Bolsonaro voters -0.09, 95% CI -0.11 to -0.07, p < 0.001). We also found a statistically significant interaction between the primary predictor of interest and HDI scores, with a more significantly detrimental effect of the right-wing political stance in municipalities in the lower HDI quartiles (interaction p < 0.001 for the first HDI quartile; p = 0.001 for the second HDI quartile). CONCLUSION: Our findings suggest that political ideologies have influenced COVID-19 vaccine hesitancy in Brazilian municipalities, affecting communities inequitably. The politicization of vaccines is a new challenge for vaccine programs. Strategies to face these challenges should include joint efforts from governments and civil society for a common public health goal.

COVID-19 outcomes in people living with HIV: Peering through the waves.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate clinical characteristics and outcomes of COVID-19 patients infected with HIV, and to compare with a paired sample without HIV infection. METHODS: This is a substudy of a Brazilian multicentric cohort that comprised two periods (2020 and 2021). Data was obtained through the retrospective review of medical records. Primary outcomes were admission to the intensive care unit, invasive mechanical ventilation, and death. Patients with HIV and controls were matched for age, sex, number of comorbidities, and hospital of origin using the technique of propensity score matching (up to 4:1). They were compared using the Chi-Square or Fisher's Exact tests for categorical variables and the Wilcoxon for numerical variables. RESULTS: Throughout the study, 17,101 COVID-19 patients were hospitalized, and 130 (0.76%) of those were infected with HIV. The median age was 54 (IQR: 43.0;64.0) years in 2020 and 53 (IQR: 46.0;63.5) years in 2021, with a predominance of females in both periods. People Living with HIV (PLHIV) and their controls showed similar prevalence for admission to the ICU and invasive mechanical ventilation requirement in the two periods, with no significant differences. In 2020, in-hospital mortality was higher in the PLHIV compared to the controls (27.9% vs. 17.7%; p = 0.049), but there was no difference in mortality between groups in 2021 (25.0% vs. 25.1%; p > 0.999). CONCLUSIONS: Our results reiterate that PLHIV were at higher risk of COVID-19 mortality in the early stages of the pandemic, however, this finding did not sustain in 2021, when the mortality rate is similar to the control group.

Association Between Gut Microbiota and Delirium in Acutely Ill Older Adults.

Our aim was to investigate the association between gut microbiota and delirium occurrence in acutely ill older adults. We included 133 participants 65+ years consecutively admitted to the emergency department of a tertiary university hospital, between September 2019 and March 2020. We excluded candidates with ≥24-hour antibiotic utilization on admission, recent prebiotic or probiotic utilization, artificial nutrition, acute gastrointestinal disorders, severe traumatic brain injury, recent hospitalization, institutionalization, expected discharge ≤48 hours, or admission for end-of-life care. A trained research team followed a standardized interview protocol to collect sociodemographic, clinical, and laboratory data on admission and throughout the hospital stay. Our exposure measures were gut microbiota alpha and beta diversities, taxa relative abundance, and core microbiome. Our primary outcome was delirium, assessed twice daily using the Confusion Assessment Method. Delirium was detected in 38 participants (29%). We analyzed 257 swab samples. After adjusting for potential confounders, we observed that a greater alpha diversity (higher abundance and richness of microorganisms) was associated with a lower risk of delirium, as measured by the Shannon (odds ratio [OR] = 0.77; 95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.60-0.99; p = .042) and Pielou indexes (OR = 0.69; 95% CI = 0.51-0.87; p = .005). Bacterial taxa associated with pro-inflammatory pathways (Enterobacteriaceae) and modulation of relevant neurotransmitters (Serratia: dopamine; Bacteroides, Parabacteroides: GABA) were more common in participants with delirium. Gut microbiota diversity and composition were significantly different in acutely ill hospitalized older adults who experienced delirium. Our work is an original proof-of-concept investigation that lays a foundation for future biomarker studies and potential therapeutic targets for delirium prevention and treatment.

Dissipating the fog: Cognitive trajectories and risk factors 1 year after COVID-19 hospitalization.

INTRODUCTION: Cognitive impairment is common after severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection. However, associations between post-hospital discharge risk factors and cognitive trajectories have not been explored. METHODS: A total of 1105 adults (mean age ± SD 64.9 ± 9.9 years, 44% women, 63% White) with severe coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) were evaluated for cognitive function 1 year after hospital discharge. Scores from cognitive tests were harmonized, and clusters of cognitive impairment were defined using sequential analysis. RESULTS: Three groups of cognitive trajectories were observed during the follow-up: no cognitive impairment, initial short-term cognitive impairment, and long-term cognitive impairment. Predictors of cognitive decline after COVID-19 were older age (ß = -0.013, 95% CI = -0.023;-0.003), female sex (ß = -0.230, 95% CI = -0.413;-0.047), previous dementia diagnosis or substantial memory complaints (ß = -0.606, 95% CI = -0.877;-0.335), frailty before hospitalization (ß = -0.191, 95% CI = -0.264;-0.119), higher platelet count (ß = -0.101, 95% CI = -0.185;-0.018), and delirium (ß = -0.483, 95% CI = -0.724;-0.244). Post-discharge predictors included hospital readmissions and frailty. DISCUSSION: Cognitive impairment was common and the patterns of cognitive trajectories depended on sociodemographic, in-hospital, and post-hospitalization predictors. HIGHLIGHTS: Cognitive impairment after coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) hospital discharge was associated with higher age, less education, delirium during hospitalization, a higher number of hospitalizations post discharge, and frailty before and after hospitalization. Frequent cognitive evaluations for 12-month post-COVID-19 hospitalization showed three possible cognitive trajectories: no cognitive impairment, initial short-term impairment, and long-term impairment. This study highlights the importance of frequent cognitive testing to determine patterns of COVID-19 cognitive impairment, given the high frequency of incident cognitive impairment 1 year after hospitalization.

Brain injury biomarkers do not predict delirium in acutely ill older patients: a prospective cohort study.

Delirium is a common, serious, and often preventable neuropsychiatric emergency mostly characterized by a disturbance in attention and awareness. Systemic insult and inflammation causing blood-brain-barrier (BBB) damage and glial and neuronal activation leading to more inflammation and cell death is the most accepted theory behind delirium's pathophysiology. This study aims to evaluate the relationship between brain injury biomarkers on admission and delirium in acutely ill older patients. We performed a prospective cohort study which analyzed plasma S100B levels at admission in elderly patients. Our primary outcome was delirium diagnosis. Secondary outcomes were association between S100B, NSE and Tau protein and delirium diagnosis and patients' outcomes (admissions to intensive care, length of hospital stay, and in-hospital mortality). We analyzed 194 patients, and 46 (24%) developed delirium, 25 on admission and 21 during hospital stay. Median of S100B at admission in patients who developed delirium was 0.16 and median was 0.16 in patients who didn't develop delirium (p: 0.69). Levels S100B on admission did not predict delirium in acutely ill elderly patients.Trial registration: The study was approved by the local institutional review board (CAPPESq, no. 77169716.2.0000.0068, October 11, 2017) and registered in Brazilian Clinical Trials Registry (ReBEC, no. RBR-233bct).

Prediction of intensive care admission and hospital mortality in COVID-19 patients using demographics and baseline laboratory data.

INTRODUCTION: Optimized allocation of medical resources to patients with COVID-19 has been a critical concern since the onset of the pandemic. METHODS: In this retrospective cohort study, the authors used data from a Brazilian tertiary university hospital to explore predictors of Intensive Care Unit (ICU) admission and hospital mortality in patients admitted for COVID-19. Our primary aim was to create and validate prediction scores for use in hospitals and emergency departments to aid clinical decisions and resource allocation. RESULTS: The study cohort included 3,022 participants, of whom 2,485 were admitted to the ICU; 1968 survived, and 1054 died in the hospital. From the complete cohort, 1,496 patients were randomly assigned to the derivation sample and 1,526 to the validation sample. The final scores included age, comorbidities, and baseline laboratory data. The areas under the receiver operating characteristic curves were very similar for the derivation and validation samples. Scores for ICU admission had a 75% accuracy in the validation sample, whereas scores for death had a 77% accuracy in the validation sample. The authors found that including baseline flu-like symptoms in the scores added no significant benefit to their accuracy. Furthermore, our scores were more accurate than the previously published NEWS-2 and 4C Mortality Scores. DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSIONS: The authors developed and validated prognostic scores that use readily available clinical and laboratory information to predict ICU admission and mortality in COVID-19. These scores can become valuable tools to support clinical decisions and improve the allocation of limited health resources.