Parental depression and their children's marriage timing: The long-term consequences of parental mental disorders.

Although decades of research documents powerful associations between parents' characteristics and their children's marital behaviors, the role of parental mental health has largely been ignored, despite the high prevalence of mental disorders and their strong potential to shape multiple dimensions of family life. Many studies examine other consequences of mothers' mental disorders, particularly for young children, but rarely do studies investigate the consequences of fathers' mental disorders, especially the potential for long-term consequences. We construct a theoretical framework for the study of intergenerational influences on family formation behaviors, integrating parental mental health, and emphasizing the potential for father's disorders to shape their children's lives. To investigate these associations, we use new intergenerational panel data featuring clinically validated diagnostic measures of parental mental health for both mothers and fathers, assessed independently. Results demonstrate that fathers' major depressive disorder is associated with significantly earlier marriage timing among sons. These important new findings provide insights into key priorities for social research on family formation processes and intergenerational influences across many domains.

Community exposure to armed conflict and subsequent onset of alcohol use disorder.

AIMS: To measure the independent consequences of community-level armed conflict beatings on alcohol use disorders (AUD) among males in Nepal during and after the 2000-2006 conflict. DESIGN: A population-representative panel study from Nepal, with precise measures of community-level violent events and subsequent individual-level AUD in males. Females were not included because of low AUD prevalence. SETTING: Chitwan, Nepal. PARTICIPANTS: Four thousand eight hundred seventy-six males from 151 neighborhoods, systematically selected and representative of Western Chitwan. All residents aged 15-59 were eligible (response rate 93%). MEASUREMENTS: Measures of beatings in the community during the conflict (2000-2006), including the date and distance away, were gathered through neighborhood reports, geo-location and official resources, then linked to respondents' life histories of AUD (collected in 2016-2018) using the Nepal-specific Composite International Diagnostic Interview with life history calendar. Beatings nearby predict the subsequent onset of AUD during and after the armed conflict. Data were analyzed in 2021-2022. FINDINGS: Cohort-specific, discrete-time models revealed that within the youngest cohort (born 1992-2001), those living in neighborhoods where armed conflict beatings occurred were more likely to develop AUD compared with those in other neighborhoods (odds ratio = 1.66; 95% confidence interval = 1.02-2.71). In this cohort, a multilevel matching analysis designed to simulate a randomized trial showed the post-conflict incidence of AUD for those living in neighborhoods with any armed conflict beatings was 9.5% compared with 5.3% in the matched sample with no beatings. CONCLUSIONS: Among male children living in Chitwan, Nepal during the 2000-2006 armed conflict, living in a neighborhood where armed conflict beatings occurred is associated with increased odds of developing subsequent alcohol use disorder. This association was independent of personal exposure to beatings and other mental disorders.

Associations Between Forced Intercourse and Subsequent Depression Among Women in the U.S. General Population.

Forced intercourse is a high prevalence experience among US women, with high potential to produce subsequent major depressive episodes (MDE). However, the extent to which prior risk factors are associated with the timing of both sexual assault experiences and subsequent MDE onset is not known. The aim of this study was to document the associations between childhood depression, subsequent forced intercourse, and later MDE. We used retrospective information on childhood depression, forced intercourse, and MDE after forced intercourse from female respondents in the nationally representative 2017 US Panel Study of Income Dynamics-Transition to Adulthood Supplement (PSID-TAS, N = 1298, response rate: 87%). Multivariable logistic regression estimated these associations, controlling for age, race, poverty, religiosity, family history of depression, and adverse childhood experiences (such as parental physical abuse or parental violence). Women who experienced childhood depression (prevalence: 15%) had 2.57 times the odds of experiencing forced intercourse after depression onset, even after adjusting for these other risk factors. However, even though childhood depression is a powerful risk factor for later MDE, independent of that women who experienced forced intercourse had 2.28 times the odds of experiencing MDE after the occurrence of forced intercourse, adjusting for childhood depression and other risk factors. This study provided the first clear evidence for time-ordered associations between forced intercourse and subsequent MDE among women in the general population.

Visible Cash, a Second Incentive, and Priority Mail? An Experimental Evaluation of Mailing Strategies for a Screening Questionnaire in a National Push-to-Web/Mail Survey.

In push-to-web surveys that use postal mail to contact sampled cases, participation is contingent on the mail being opened and the survey invitations being delivered. The design of the mailings is crucial to the success of the survey. We address the question of how to design invitation mailings that can grab potential respondents' attention and sway them to be interested in the survey in a short window of time. In the household screening stage of a national survey, the American Family Health Study, we experimentally tested three mailing design techniques for recruiting respondents: (1) a visible cash incentive in the initial mailing, (2) a second incentive for initial nonrespondents, and (3) use of Priority Mail in the nonresponse follow-up mailing. We evaluated the three techniques' overall effects on response rates as well as how they differentially attracted respondents with different characteristics. We found that all three techniques were useful in increasing the screening response rates, but there was little evidence that they had differential effects on sample subgroups that could help to reduce nonresponse biases.

Methods for improving participation rates in national self-administered web/mail surveys: Evidence from the United States.

In the United States, increasing access to the internet, the increasing costs of large-scale face-to-face data collections, and the general reluctance of the public to participate in intrusive in-person data collections all mean that new approaches to nationally representative surveys are urgently needed. The COVID-19 pandemic accelerated the need for faster, higher-quality alternatives to face-to-face data collection. These trends place a high priority on the evaluation of innovative web-based data collection methods that are convenient for the U.S. public and yield scientific information of high quality. The web mode is particularly appealing because it is relatively inexpensive, it is logistically flexible to implement, and it affords a high level of privacy and confidentiality when correctly implemented. With this study, we aimed to conduct a methodological evaluation of a sequential mixed-mode web/mail data collection protocol, including modular survey design concepts, which was implemented on a national probability sample in the U.S. in 2020-2021. We implemented randomized experiments to test theoretically-informed hypotheses that 1) the use of mail and increased incentives to follow up with households that did not respond to an invitation to complete a household screening questionnaire online would help to recruit different types of households; and 2) the use of modular survey design, which involves splitting a lengthy self-administered survey up into multiple parts that can be completed at a respondent's convenience, would improve survey completion rates. We find support for the use of mail and increased incentives to follow up with households that have not responded to a web-based screening questionnaire. We did not find support for the use of modular design in this context. Simple descriptive analyses also suggest that attempted telephone reminders may be helpful for the main survey.

Alcohol use and internal migration in Nepal: a cross-sectional study.

BACKGROUND: Alcohol use is a leading cause of disease. Although low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) have lower per capita alcohol consumption, the alcohol-attributable disease burden is high in these settings with consumption increasing. LMICs are also experiencing unprecedented levels of internal migration, potentially increasing mental stress, changing social restrictions on drinking, and increasing alcohol availability. We assessed the relationship between internal migration, opportunity to drink, and the transition from first use to regular alcohol use and alcohol use disorders (AUD) in Nepal, a low-income, South Asian country. METHODS: A representative sample of 7435 individuals, aged 15-59 from Nepal were interviewed in 2016-2018 (93% response rate) with clinically validated measures of alcohol use and disorders and life history calendar measures of lifetime migration experiences. Discrete-time hazard models assessed associations between migration and alcohol use outcomes. RESULTS: Net of individual sociodemographic characteristics, internal migration was associated with increased odds of opportunity to drink (OR 1.32, 95% CI 1.14 to 1.53), onset of regular alcohol use given lifetime use (OR 1.29, 95% CI 1.13 to 1.48) and AUD given lifetime use (OR 1.24, 95% CI 0.99 to 1.57). The statistically significant association between internal migration and opportunity to drink was specific to females, whereas the associations between migration and regular use and disorder were statistically significant for males. CONCLUSIONS: Despite high rates of internal migration worldwide, most research studying migration and alcohol use focuses on international migrants. Findings suggest that internal migrants are at increased risk to transition into alcohol use and disorders. Support services for internal migrants could prevent problematic alcohol use among this underserved population.

Forced intercourse in America: a pandemic update.

BACKGROUND: Measures of forced intercourse from the U.S. National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS) indicate high prevalence among U.S. women, which is likely to produce unintended pregnancies. However, NCHS did not measure forced intercourse during the pandemic, limiting knowledge of recent prevalence rates. METHODS: We use multiple nationally-representative, cross-sectional surveys representing the U.S. population from 2011 to 2022 to document these trends. This includes measures from the National Survey of Family Growth, the Panel Study of Income Dynamics Transition into Adulthood Supplement, and the American Family Health Study (AFHS) to provide population estimates of forced intercourse. RESULTS: Reports of forced intercourse remained high during the pandemic, with more than 25% of U.S. females over 40 reporting lifetime forced intercourse in the AFHS (number of females in AFHS: 1,042). There was a significant increase among females aged 24-28 (p < 0.05) and rates are highest for those who did not complete college. Among females 24-28, 32.5% (S.E. = 5.7%) with less than 4 years of college reported forced intercourse, a significantly (p < 0.05) higher rate than among those with a higher level of education. CONCLUSIONS: Rates of forced intercourse among U.S. women remained high during the pandemic, increasing significantly in early adulthood. This exposure to forced intercourse is likely to produce an increase in unintended pregnancies and other sexual, reproductive, and mental health problems.

Findings From the World Mental Health Surveys of Civil Violence Exposure and Its Association With Subsequent Onset and Persistence of Mental Disorders.

Importance: Understanding the association of civil violence with mental disorders is important for developing effective postconflict recovery policies. Objective: To estimate the association between exposure to civil violence and the subsequent onset and persistence of common mental disorders (in the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders, Fourth Edition [DSM-IV]) in representative surveys of civilians from countries that have experienced civil violence since World War II. Design, Setting, and Participants: This study used data from cross-sectional World Health Organization World Mental Health (WMH) surveys administered to households between February 5, 2001, and January 5, 2022, in 7 countries that experienced periods of civil violence after World War II (Argentina, Colombia, Lebanon, Nigeria, Northern Ireland, Peru, and South Africa). Data from respondents in other WMH surveys who immigrated from countries with civil violence in Africa and Latin America were also included. Representative samples comprised adults (aged ≥18 years) from eligible countries. Data analysis was performed from February 10 to 13, 2023. Exposures: Exposure was defined as a self-report of having been a civilian in a war zone or region of terror. Related stressors (being displaced, witnessing atrocities, or being a combatant) were also assessed. Exposures occurred a median of 21 (IQR, 12-30) years before the interview. Main Outcomes and Measures: The main outcome was the retrospectively reported lifetime prevalence and 12-month persistence (estimated by calculating 12-month prevalence among lifetime cases) of DSM-IV anxiety, mood, and externalizing (alcohol use, illicit drug use, or intermittent explosive) disorders. Results: This study included 18 212 respondents from 7 countries. Of these individuals, 2096 reported that they were exposed to civil violence (56.5% were men; median age, 40 [IQR, 30-52] years) and 16 116 were not exposed (45.2% were men; median age, 35 [IQR, 26-48] years). Respondents who reported being exposed to civil violence had a significantly elevated onset risk of anxiety (risk ratio [RR], 1.8 [95% CI, 1.5-2.1]), mood (RR, 1.5 [95% CI, 1.3-1.7]), and externalizing (RR, 1.6 [95% CI, 1.3-1.9]) disorders. Combatants additionally had a significantly elevated onset risk of anxiety disorders (RR, 2.0 [95% CI, 1.3-3.1]) and refugees had an increased onset risk of mood (RR, 1.5 [95% CI, 1.1-2.0]) and externalizing (RR, 1.6 [95% CI, 1.0-2.4]) disorders. Elevated disorder onset risks persisted for more than 2 decades if conflicts persisted but not after either termination of hostilities or emigration. Persistence (ie, 12-month prevalence among respondents with lifetime prevalence of the disorder), in comparison, was generally not associated with exposure. Conclusions: In this survey study of exposure to civil violence, exposure was associated with an elevated risk of mental disorders among civilians for many years after initial exposure. These findings suggest that policy makers should recognize these associations when projecting future mental disorder treatment needs in countries experiencing civil violence and among affected migrants.

Forced Intercourse in America: A Pandemic Update.

Background : Measures of forced intercourse from the U.S. National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS) indicate this a high prevalence among U.S. women that is likely to produce unintended pregnancies. However, NCHS did not measure forced intercourse during the pandemic, limiting knowledge of recent prevalence rates. Methods : We use multiple nationally-representative, cross-sectional surveys representing the U.S. population from 2011 to 2022 to document these trends. This includes measures from the National Survey of Family Growth, the Panel Study of Income Dynamics Transition into Adulthood Supplement, and the American Family Health Study (AFHS) to provide population estimates of forced intercourse. Results : Reports of forced intercourse remained high during the pandemic, with more than 25% of U.S. females over 40 reporting lifetime forced intercourse in the AFHS (number of females in AFHS: 1,042). There was a significant increase among females aged 24-28 (p<.05) and rates are highest for those who did not complete college. Among females 24-28, 32.5% (S.E. = 5.7%) with less than 4 years of college reported forced intercourse, a significantly (p<.05) higher rate than among those with higher education. Conclusions : Rates of forced intercourse among U.S. women remained high during the pandemic, increasing significantly in early adulthood. This exposure to forced intercourse is likely to produce an increase in unintended pregnancies and other sexual, reproductive, and mental health problems.

Abortion Policy in the United States: The New Legal Landscape and Its Threats to Health and Socioeconomic Well-Being.

Policy Points The historic 2022 Supreme Court Dobbs v Jackson Women's Health Organization decision has created a new public policy landscape in the United States that will restrict access to legal and safe abortion for a significant proportion of the population. Policies restricting access to abortion bring with them significant threats and harms to health by delaying or denying essential evidence-based medical care and increasing the risks for adverse maternal and infant outcomes, including death. Restrictive abortion policies will increase the number of children born into and living in poverty, increase the number of families experiencing serious financial instability and hardship, increase racial inequities in socioeconomic security, and put significant additional pressure on under-resourced social welfare systems.

Student reports of attendance at programs to reduce campus sexual assault and harassment.

OBJECTIVE: To identify factors independently associated with program participation and knowledge of campus processes to address sexual assault and harassment complaints. PARTICIPANTS: 1,182 undergraduates who completed the University of Michigan's 2015 campus climate survey on topics of sexual assault and harassment (67% response rate). METHODS: We analyze survey responses to estimate multivariable models that identify subgroups of the student population least likely to have participated in programs or to know campus processes. RESULTS: Students living off campus, not involved in major organizations, and males are less likely to report attending programming. Students not involved in major organizations and females are less likely to report knowing campus processes. CONCLUSIONS: Specific student subpopulations are more difficult to engage in programs designed to reduce sexual assault and harassment. Targeting additional effort to these groups may improve campus sexual climate. Careful analyses of campus climate survey data can help construct campus-specific priorities for these interventions.

The transition to parenthood, opportunity to drink, drinking, and alcohol use disorder.

BACKGROUND: This study used life histories from a setting of near universal marriage and childbearing (Nepal) to identify associations between both marital transitions and the transition into parenthood and alcohol use and disorder (AUD). METHODS: A retrospective, cross-sectional survey using life history calendars documented lifetime marital and childbearing histories of 4876 men and 5742 women aged 15-59 in 2016-18. The clinically validated, Nepal-specific Composite International Diagnostic Interview assessed first alcohol use opportunity, use, and disorder. RESULTS: Being never married increased the odds of having the opportunity to drink for men (OR=1.30, 95% CI=1.14 - 1.48, p < 0.001) and women (OR=1.24, 95% CI=1.08 - 1.43, p = 0.003) compared to being married. While men were never married, widowed, or divorced they were at a greater risk of developing AUD. The transition to parenthood significantly increased the odds of AUD onset for men (OR=1.71, 95% CI=1.12 - 2.61, p = 0.013), independent of marital transitions. For women in this setting, becoming divorced increased the odds of having their first drink (OR=1.77, 95% CI=1.14 - 2.75, p = 0.011). Giving birth to a first child also increased the odds of first opportunity to drink for women (OR=1.30, 95% CI=1.07 - 1.57, p = 0.008). CONCLUSIONS: We found associations between marital transitions and AUD that are consistent with findings worldwide. In this setting of near universal childbearing, the transition into fatherhood increased the odds of postpartum AUD among men.

A Web-Based Event History Calendar Approach for Measuring Contraceptive Use Behavior.

Event history calendars (EHCs) are frequently used in social measurement to capture important information about the time ordering of events in people's lives, and enable inference about the relationships of the events with other outcomes of interest. To date, EHCs have primarily been designed for face-to-face or telephone survey interviewing, and few calendar tools have been developed for more private, self-administered modes of data collection. Web surveys offer benefits in terms of both self-administration, which can reduce social desirability bias, and timeliness. We developed and tested a web application enabling the calendar-based measurement of contraceptive method use histories. These measures provide valuable information for researchers studying family planning and fertility behaviors. This study describes the development of the web application, and presents a comparison of data collected from online panels using the application with data from a benchmark face-to-face survey collecting similar measures (the National Survey of Family Growth).

Cohabitation dissolution and psychological distress among young adults: The role of parenthood and gender.

Cohabitation has become a normative experience for American young adults and a common setting for childbearing in recent decades. However, the high dissolution rate of cohabitation exposes young adults to the potential stress of intimate relationship dissolution and single parenthood during early adulthood. Drawing on data from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1997, we apply growth curve models to analyze how cohabitation dissolution associates with trajectories of depressive symptoms and binge drinking behaviors for young adults (aged 17 to 35). We investigate how the presence of children moderates this association for men and women. We find that cohabitation dissolution is associated with increased depressive symptoms for both men and women. However, cohabitation dissolution is only positively associated with binge drinking behaviors for men, and a significant gender difference is observed. The presence of children when cohabitation dissolves strengthens the positive association between cohabitation dissolution and depressive symptoms among women, and this positive moderation fades away as young women age. These findings suggest that gender differences in the association of cohabitation dissolution with psychological distress are contingent on the types of psychological distress under consideration and also reveal that cohabitation dissolution intertwined with non-marital parenthood is harmful to mental health, especially for young women.

Community-Level Social Support Infrastructure and Adult Onset of Major Depressive Disorder in a South Asian Postconflict Setting.

IMPORTANCE: Individual-level social support protects against major depressive disorder (MDD) among adults exposed to trauma. Little is known about the consequences of community-level interventions in the general population. OBJECTIVE: To determine the potential consequences of neighborhood social infrastructure on incident MDD in a high-risk general population. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: This longitudinal, multilevel study estimated associations between a neighborhood-level program in a case-control design and subsequent individual outcomes across 10 years (2006-2015) in a cohort of young adults. Exogenously placed social programs simulate natural experiment conditions in a high-poverty population experiencing armed conflict (1998-2006). The western Chitwan valley in Nepal has a general population at high risk of MDD, with neighborhoods exposed to interventions to improve social support. From a random sample (response rate 93%) selected to represent the general population in 2016, participants aged 25 to 34 years in 2006 were studied. These individuals resided within 149 neighborhoods that varied in their availability of active social support programs. The analyses were conducted between October 2020 and November 2021. EXPOSURES: The Small Farmers Development Program (SFDP) uses shared, joint liability financial credit among neighbors to build social capital and cohesion within neighborhoods. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: Onset of DSM-IV MDD after the conflict, assessed by the Nepal-specific, clinically validated World Mental Health Composite International Diagnostic Interview with a life history calendar. The hypothesis tested was that exposure to SFDP reduced adult onset of MDD. RESULTS: Of the 1917 survey participants, 886 (46.2%) were women, and 856 (44.7%) were of Brahmin or Chhetri ethnicity. Of the 149 neighborhoods, 21 had an active SFDP group, and 156 of 1917 (8.1%) participants experienced MDD between 2006 and 2015. Discrete-time hazard models showed participants living in neighborhoods with an SFDP experienced incident MDD at nearly half the rate as others (odds ratio = 0.55; 95% CI, 0.30-1.02; P = .06). A multivariate, multilevel matching analysis showed the incidence of MDD among adults living in neighborhoods with an SFDP was 19 of 256 (7.4%), compared with 33 of 256 (12.9%) in the matched sample with no SFDP (z = 2.05; P = .04). CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: Living in a neighborhood with community-level social support infrastructure was associated with reduced subsequent rates of adult-onset MDD, even in this high-risk population. Investments in such infrastructure may reduce population-level MDD, supporting clinical focus on potentially unpreventable cases.

Marital Experiences and Depression in an Arranged Marriage Setting.

Understanding the consequences of marital experiences for individual mental health provides insight into how social relationships shape individual wellbeing. Using newly available, clinically validated diagnostic interviews with more than 10,000 respondents integrated with the longitudinal Chitwan Valley Family Study (CVFS), we assess the associations between marital experiences, intimate partner violence (IPV), and mental health and how they differ by gender in a setting of universal marriage-Nepal. Particularly novel, we integrate measures of arranged marriage, IPV, and marital quality into a single comprehensive analysis of the marital experiences shaping subsequent depression. This study reveals that becoming married can be positively associated with major depressive disorder (MDD) for women. IPV is a strong and independent risk factor for depression, but it only mediates a small portion of the consequences of marriage on depression. Among women, having no say at all in the selection of a spouse is also a strong and independent risk factor for depression, and IPV can only mediate a small portion of the consequences of arranged marriage on depression. We also investigate the associations between the positive (i.e., husband-wife emotional bond) and negative (i.e., spousal criticism and disagreement) dimensions of marital quality and depression. Frequent spousal disagreement significantly increases depression for women, but strong husband-wife emotional bond is not significantly associated with depression. Overall, the associations between marital experiences and mental health should be understood as contingent on both gender and the social contexts of marriage. Depending on these factors, specific marital experiences have the potential to increase transitions to depression, not just protect from depression.

Social Change, Out-migration, and Exit from Farming in Nepal.

Though international out-migration is widespread, little evidence exists regarding the consequences for economic change in sending countries, particularly in the densely populated agricultural areas of Asia. We examine associations between labor out-migration, remittances, and agricultural change in Nepal. Existing studies of this important population-environment relationship generally ignore the role of local community context, which is known to shape demographic behavior and likely exit from farming as well. Research offers opposing views of the consequences of out-migration for agricultural change - (1) loss of farm labor reduces engagement in agriculture, versus (2) loosening credit constraints from remittances increases engagement in agriculture - and indicates that both mechanisms likely operate simultaneously. Both of these mechanisms are likely to be shaped by changes in local context. Using multilevel dynamic models, we estimate associations between out-migration and remittances by household members and subsequent exit from farming, controlling for variations in community context. Results suggest international out-migration is associated with higher odds of exit from farming and simultaneously remittances are associated with lower odds of exit from farming. Results are robust against several key variations in model specification, including controls for household characteristics and local community context. However, local community context exerts an important independent influence on the hazard of exit from farming.

Resilience to mental disorders in a low-income, non-Westernized setting.

BACKGROUND: Cross-national studies have found, unexpectedly, that mental disorder prevalence is higher in high-income relative to low-income countries, but few rigorous studies have been conducted in very low-income countries. This study assessed mental disorders in Nepal, employing unique methodological features designed to maximize disorder detection and reporting. METHODS: In 2016-2018, 10714 respondents aged 15-59 were interviewed as part of an ongoing panel study, with a response rate of 93%. The World Mental Health version of the Composite International Diagnostic Interview (WMH-CIDI 3.0) measured lifetime and 12-month prevalence of selected anxiety, mood, alcohol use, and impulse control disorders. Lifetime recall was enhanced using a life history calendar. RESULTS: Lifetime prevalence ranged from 0.3% (95% CI 0.2-0.4) for bipolar disorder to 15.1% (95% CI 14.4-15.7) for major depressive disorder. The 12-month prevalences were low, ranging from 0.2% for panic disorder (95% CI 0.1-0.3) and bipolar disorder (95% CI 0.1-0.2) to 2.7% for depression (95% CI 2.4-3.0). Lifetime disorders were higher among those with less education and in the low-caste ethnic group. Gender differences were pronounced. CONCLUSIONS: Although cultural effects on reporting cannot be ruled out, these low 12-month prevalences are consistent with reduced prevalence of mental disorders in other low-income countries. Identification of sociocultural factors that mediate the lower prevalence of mental disorders in low-income, non-Westernized settings may have implications for understanding disorder etiology and for clinical or policy interventions aimed at facilitating resilience.

Improving reports of health risks: Life history calendars and measurement of potentially traumatic experiences.

OBJECTIVES: Recall error biases reporting of earlier life experiences, even potentially traumatic experiences (PTEs). Better tools for accurate retrospective reporting of PTEs and other health risk factors have the potential for broad scientific and health intervention benefits. METHODS: We designed a life history calendar (LHC) to support this task and randomized more than 1000 individuals to each arm of a retrospective diagnostic interview, including detailed measures of PTEs, with and without the LHC. This is one of the largest experiments ever done to assess the benefit of an LHC approach and the only large-scale experiment done in a poor, agrarian, non-Western setting (rural Nepal). RESULTS: Results demonstrate use of an LHC in retrospective measurement can significantly increase lifetime reports of PTEs, especially reports of two or more PTEs. The LHC increases PTE reporting more for men and those with less education. CONCLUSIONS: The LHC approach is practical for many uses ranging from large surveys of the general population to clinical intake of new patients. It significantly increases reporting of health risk factors.

Predictors of transitions across stages of alcohol use and disorders in an adult population with heterogeneous ethnic restrictions regarding drinking.

AIMS: To disaggregate associations with alcohol use disorder relative to those with early alcohol use stages in an adult population. We estimated prevalence rates and socio-demographic correlates for the opportunity to drink and transitions into life-time alcohol use, regular use and alcohol use disorder. DESIGN: A retrospective, cross-sectional population survey within a family panel study. SETTING: Chitwan in Nepal, an ethnically diverse setting with heterogeneous ethnic restrictions regarding alcohol. PARTICIPANTS: A total of 10 714 individuals aged 15-59 years (response rate = 93%). MEASUREMENTS: The Nepal-specific Composite International Diagnostic Interview assessed life-time alcohol use opportunity, any use, regular use, disorder and socio-demographic characteristics. FINDINGS: Seventy per cent [95% confidence interval (CI) = 69.08-70.82%] of the population had the opportunity to drink, 38.06% (95% CI = 37.14-38.99%) had life-time alcohol use, 32.37% (95% CI = 31.48-33.27%) had regular alcohol use and 6.04% (95% CI = 5.60-6.50%) developed an alcohol use disorder. Compared with high-caste Hindus, all other ethnicities had greater odds of early stage transitions [odds ratios (OR) ranged from 1.31, 95% CI = 1.16-1.47 to 1.98, 95% CI = 1.81-2.18)], but not of development of disorder. Male sex was associated with greater odds of all transitions, from opportunity (OR = 5.71, 95% CI = 5.41-6.03) to development of disorder (OR = 1.95, 95% CI = 1.35-2.81). The youngest cohort had higher odds of all transitions, from opportunity (OR = 4.86, 95% CI = 4.47-5.29) to development of disorder (OR = 9.34, 95% CI = 6.88-12.70). Higher education was associated with lower odds of all transitions except opportunity [from use (OR = 0.77, 95% CI = 0.71-0.83) to the development of disorder (OR = 0.73, 95% CI = 0.59-0.89)]. CONCLUSIONS: The prevalence of life-time alcohol use among adults in Nepal appears to be low, but the overall prevalence of disorder is similar to other countries. Socio-demographic correlates of early alcohol use transitions differ from those associated with later transitions; while sex and age cohort were associated with all transitions, ethnicity was associated with early transitions (opportunity, life-time use, regular use), but not later transitions (use and regular use to disorder).