A machine learning PROGRAM to identify COVID-19 and other diseases from hematology data.

AIM: We propose a method for screening full blood count metadata for evidence of communicable and noncommunicable diseases using machine learning (ML). MATERIALS & METHODS: High dimensional hematology metadata was extracted over an 11-month period from Sysmex hematology analyzers from 43,761 patients. Predictive models for age, sex and individuality were developed to demonstrate the personalized nature of hematology data. Both numeric and raw flow cytometry data were used for both supervised and unsupervised ML to predict the presence of pneumonia, urinary tract infection and COVID-19. Heart failure was used as an objective to prove method generalizability. RESULTS: Chronological age was predicted by a deep neural network with R2: 0.59; mean absolute error: 12; sex with AUROC: 0.83, phi: 0.47; individuality with 99.7% accuracy, phi: 0.97; pneumonia with AUROC: 0.74, sensitivity 58%, specificity 79%, 95% CI: 0.73-0.75, p < 0.0001; urinary tract infection AUROC: 0.68, sensitivity 52%, specificity 79%, 95% CI: 0.67-0.68, p < 0.0001; COVID-19 AUROC: 0.8, sensitivity 82%, specificity 75%, 95% CI: 0.79-0.8, p = 0.0006; and heart failure area under the receiver operator curve (AUROC): 0.78, sensitivity 72%, specificity 72%, 95% CI: 0.77-0.78; p < 0.0001. CONCLUSION: ML applied to hematology data could predict communicable and noncommunicable diseases, both at local and global levels.

Routinely reported ejection fraction and mortality in clinical practice: where does the nadir of risk lie?

AIMS: We investigated the relationship between clinically assessed left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) and survival in a large, heterogeneous clinical cohort. METHODS AND RESULTS: Physician-reported LVEF on 403 977 echocardiograms from 203 135 patients were linked to all-cause mortality using electronic health records (1998-2018) from US regional healthcare system. Cox proportional hazards regression was used for analyses while adjusting for many patient characteristics including age, sex, and relevant comorbidities. A dataset including 45 531 echocardiograms and 35 976 patients from New Zealand was used to provide independent validation of analyses. During follow-up of the US cohort, 46 258 (23%) patients who had undergone 108 578 (27%) echocardiograms died. Overall, adjusted hazard ratios (HR) for mortality showed a u-shaped relationship for LVEF with a nadir of risk at an LVEF of 60-65%, a HR of 1.71 [95% confidence interval (CI) 1.64-1.77] when ≥70% and a HR of 1.73 (95% CI 1.66-1.80) at LVEF of 35-40%. Similar relationships with a nadir at 60-65% were observed in the validation dataset as well as for each age group and both sexes. The results were similar after further adjustments for conditions associated with an elevated LVEF, including mitral regurgitation, increased wall thickness, and anaemia and when restricted to patients reported to have heart failure at the time of the echocardiogram. CONCLUSION: Deviation of LVEF from 60% to 65% is associated with poorer survival regardless of age, sex, or other relevant comorbidities such as heart failure. These results may herald the recognition of a new phenotype characterized by supra-normal LVEF.

ECG-derived spatial QRS-T angle is associated with ICD implantation, mortality and heart failure admissions in patients with LV systolic dysfunction.

BACKGROUND: Increased spatial QRS-T angle has been shown to predict appropriate implantable cardioverter defibrilIator (ICD) therapy in patients with left ventricular systolic dysfunction (LVSD). We performed a retrospective cohort study in patients with left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) 31-40% to assess the relationship between the spatial QRS-T angle and other advanced ECG (A-ECG) as well as echocardiographic metadata, with all-cause mortality or ICD implantation for secondary prevention. METHODS: 534 patients ≤75 years of age with LVEF 31-40% were identified through an echocardiography reporting database. Digital 12-lead ECGs were retrospectively matched to 295 of these patients, for whom echocardiographic and A-ECG metadata were then generated. Data mining was applied to discover novel ECG and echocardiographic markers of risk. Machine learning was used to develop a model to predict possible outcomes. RESULTS: 49 patients (17%) had events, defined as either mortality (n = 16) or ICD implantation for secondary prevention (n = 33). 72 parameters (58 A-ECG, 14 echocardiographic) were univariately different (p<0.05) in those with vs. without events. After adjustment for multiplicity, 24 A-ECG parameters and 3 echocardiographic parameters remained different (p<2x10-3). These included the posterior-to-leftward QRS loop ratio from the derived vectorcardiographic horizontal plane (previously associated with pulmonary artery pressure, p = 2x10-6); spatial mean QRS-T angle (134 vs. 112°, p = 1.6x10-4); various repolarisation vectors; and a previously described 5-parameter A-ECG score for LVSD (p = 4x10-6) that also correlated with echocardiographic global longitudinal strain (R2 = - 0.51, P < 0.0001). A spatial QRS-T angle >110° had an adjusted HR of 3.4 (95% CI 1.6 to 7.4) for secondary ICD implantation or all-cause death and adjusted HR of 4.1 (95% CI 1.2 to 13.9) for future heart failure admission. There was a loss of complexity between A-ECG and echocardiographic variables with an increasing degree of disease. CONCLUSION: Spatial QRS-T angle >110° was strongly associated with arrhythmic events and all-cause death. Deep analysis of global ECG and echocardiographic metadata revealed underlying relationships, which otherwise would not have been appreciated. Delivered at scale such techniques may prove useful in clinical decision making in the future.