RESUMO
BACKGROUND: The common vole is an agricultural pest and population outbreaks have caused significant crop damage in the agricultural areas of the west-central part of the Iberian Peninsula (Spain) during the last few decades. Thus, monitoring is imperative to gain a comprehensive insight on its spatiotemporal habitat colonization dynamics. This work was performed on a long-term database with the primary objective of establishing an operational framework for understanding the spatial and temporal distribution of the common vole, all of it based on the Getis-Ord statistics. RESULTS: The temporal evolution of the vole abundance index (VAI) was consistent for the three studied habitats, that is, crops, reservoirs and paths. Furthermore, the majority of common vole abundance peaks coincide with summer periods, especially in annual herbaceous crops. The spatial distribution of vole abundance exhibited a non-random pattern, characterized by spatial clustering. Particularly, the areas with higher significance of this clustering were located at the so-called 'Tierra de Campos' county, covering northern Valladolid, southern Palencia and north-eastern Zamora provinces. Periods of major incidence and concentration were 2013-2014, 2016-2017 and 2019. Common vole temporal occupancy patterns demonstrate that colonization occurred simultaneously in alfalfa reservoirs and dispersion paths, both preceding settlement in annual herbaceous crop plots. CONCLUSION: The geographic information system (GIS)-hotspots-based methodology proposed here can be valuable for stakeholders involved in integrated management of the common vole, serving as a detector of pest-prone areas in both space and time. These hotspots are useful for predicting future surveillance areas that accurately reflect pest colonization patterns. It was found that common vole abundance along dispersal paths acts as a source of dissemination, preceding the risk of colonization in annual herbaceous crop plots. © 2024 The Author(s). Pest Management Science published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of Society of Chemical Industry.
RESUMO
BACKGROUND: The common vole has invaded the agroecosystems of northwestern Spain, where outbreaks cause important crop damage and management costs. Little is yet known about the factors causing or modulating vole fluctuations. Here, we used 11 years of vole abundance monitoring data in 40 sites to study density-dependence and weather influence on vole dynamics. Our objective was to identify the population dynamics structure and determine whether there is direct or delayed density-dependence. An evaluation of climatic variables followed, to determine whether they influenced vole population peaks. RESULTS: First- and second-order outbreak dynamics were detected at 7 and 33 study sites, respectively, together with second-order variability in periodicity (2-3 to 4-5-year cycles). Vole population growth was explained by previous year abundance (mainly numbers in summer and spring) at 21 of the sites (52.5%), by weather variables at 11 sites (27.5%; precipitation or temperature in six and five sites, respectively), and by a combination of previous abundance and weather variables in eight sites (20%). CONCLUSIONS: We detected variability in vole spatiotemporal abundance dynamics, which differs in cyclicity and period. We also found regional variation in the relative importance of previous abundances and weather as factors modulating vole fluctuations. Most vole populations were cyclical, with variable periodicity across the region. Our study is a first step towards the development of predictive modeling, by disclosing relevant factors that might trigger vole outbreaks. It improves decision-making processes within integrated management dealing with mitigation of the agricultural impacts caused by voles. © 2023 Society of Chemical Industry.