Treatment with valacyclovir during pregnancy for prevention of congenital cytomegalovirus infection: a real-life multicenter Italian observational study.

BACKGROUND: Valacyclovir is the only treatment demonstrated to be effective for the prevention of vertical transmission of cytomegalovirus within a clinical randomized, placebo-controlled trial and has been reimbursed by the Italian National Health System since December 2020. OBJECTIVE: This study reported the results of a real-life Italian multicenter observational study on cytomegalovirus infection in pregnancy evaluating the effect of the introduction of valacyclovir in the clinical practice for the prevention of vertical transmission of cytomegalovirus. STUDY DESIGN: The outcomes of women who received valacyclovir treatment and their fetuses or newborns were compared with those of a retrospective cohort observed between 2010 and 2020 who did not receive the antiviral treatment. The inclusion criterion was the diagnosis of cytomegalovirus primary infection occurring in the periconceptional period or up to 24 weeks of gestation. The primary outcome was the transmission by the time of amniocentesis. The secondary outcomes were termination of pregnancy, transmission at birth, symptomatic infection at birth, and a composite outcome (termination of pregnancy or transmission at birth). RESULTS: A total of 447 pregnant women from 10 centers were enrolled, 205 women treated with valacyclovir (called the valacyclovir group, including 1 twin pregnancy) and 242 women not treated with valacyclovir (called the no-valacyclovir group, including 2 twin pregnancies). Valacyclovir treatment was significantly associated with a reduction of the diagnosis of congenital cytomegalovirus infection by the time of amniocentesis (weighted odds ratio, 0.39; 90% confidence interval, 0.22-0.68; P=.005; relative reduction of 61%), termination of pregnancy (weighted odds ratio, 0.36; 90% confidence interval, 0.17-0.75; P=.0021; relative reduction of 64%), symptomatic congenital cytomegalovirus infection at birth (weighted odds ratio, 0.17; 90% confidence interval, 0.06-0.49; P=.006; relative reduction of 83%). The treatment had no significant effect on the rate of diagnosis of congenital cytomegalovirus infection at birth (weighted odds ratio, 0.85; 90% confidence interval, 0.57-1.26; P=.500), but the composite outcome (termination of pregnancy or diagnosis of congenital cytomegalovirus infection at birth) occurred more frequently in the no-valacyclovir group (weighted odds ratio, 0.62; 90% confidence interval, 0.44-0.88; P=.024). Of note, the only symptomatic newborns with congenital cytomegalovirus infection in the valacyclovir group (n=3) were among those with positive amniocentesis. Moreover, 19 women (9.3%) reported an adverse reaction to valacyclovir treatment, classified as mild in 17 cases and moderate in 2 cases. Lastly, 4 women (1.9%) presented renal toxicity with a slight increase in creatinine level, which was reversible after treatment suspension. CONCLUSION: Our real-life data confirm that valacyclovir significantly reduces the rate of congenital cytomegalovirus diagnosis at the time of amniocentesis with a good tolerability profile and show that the treatment is associated with a reduction of termination of pregnancy and symptomatic congenital cytomegalovirus infection at birth.

[School-based screening strategies to prevent the spread of COVID-19 in school: a systematic review of the literature]. / Strategie di screening per contenere la diffusione del COVID-19 nella scuola: una revisione sistematica della letteratura.

OBJECTIVES: to describe studies that evaluated the screening programmes implemented in the school during the COVID-19 pandemic. DESIGN: a systematic literature review was conducted according to the PRISMA 2020 Guidelines. Studies published until December 2021 were included. The methodological quality of the studies was assessed with validated scales. Study selection, data extraction, and quality assessment were carried out by two authors independently. SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: teachers and students belonging to schools of all levels, including universities. MAIN OUTCOMES MEASURES: a. transmission-related outcomes (such as the number or proportion of cases, cumulative frequency, incidence); b. feasibility/acceptability of the screening strategies; c. socioeconomic outcomes (such as testing cost, number of days spent in school, quarantine). RESULTS: after having removed duplicate articles, 2,822 records were retrieved. Thirty-six studies were included (15 used an observational design and 21 modelling study). Regarding the former, the methodological quality has been rated as high in 2 studies, intermediate in 6 and low in 2; in the remaining ones, it was not evaluated because only descriptive. Screenings were quite different in terms of school study population, types of tests used, methods of submission and analysis, and level of incidence in the community at the time of implementation. Outcome indicators were also varied, a heterogeneity that, on the one hand, did not allow for meta-analysis of results and, on the other, allowed for testing the performance of the screenings in very different settings. All of the field studies claim that the screenings reduced SARS-CoV-2 exposure and infection among children, adolescents, and college students, curbing at-school transmission and helping to reduce the number of closing school days. Studies that evaluated the cost of the intervention emphasized its cost-effectiveness, while those that focused on the acceptability of the instrument showed a preference among children, adolescents, and parents for minimally invasive, self-administered tests with high sensitivity and lower frequency of repetition. Simulation-based studies are mostly based on compartmental and agent-based models. Their quality is quite high methodologically, although uncertainty quantification and external validation, aimed at verifying the model ability to reproduce observed data, are lacking in many cases. The contexts to which the simulations refer are all school-based, although 7 studies consider residential situations, which are poorly suited to the Italian context. All simulation-based models indicate the importance of planning repeated testing on asymptomatic individuals to limit contagion. However, the costs of these procedures can be high unless assessments are spaced out or pool testing procedures are used. Obtaining high student adherence to the screening programme is extremely important to maximize results. CONCLUSIONS: school-based screenings, especially when combined with other preventive measures, have been important public health tools to contain infections during COVID-19 waves and to ensure children's and adolescents' right to education and to prevent the fallout in physical and mental health (with strong equity consequences) associated with school closures.

Case-Control Study on the Routes of Transmission of SARS-CoV-2 after the Third Pandemic Wave in Tuscany, Central Italy.

The emergence of hyper-transmissible SARS-CoV-2 variants that rapidly became prevalent throughout the world in 2022 made it clear that extensive vaccination campaigns cannot represent the sole measure to stop COVID-19. However, the effectiveness of control and mitigation strategies, such as the closure of non-essential businesses and services, is debated. To assess the individual behaviours mostly associated with SARS-CoV-2 infection, a questionnaire-based case-control study was carried out in Tuscany, Central Italy, from May to October 2021. At the testing sites, individuals were invited to answer an online questionnaire after being notified regarding the test result. The questionnaire collected information about test result, general characteristics of the respondents, and behaviours and places attended in the week prior to the test/symptoms onset. We analysed 440 questionnaires. Behavioural differences between positive and negative subjects were assessed through logistic regression models, adjusting for a fixed set of confounders. A ridge regression model was also specified. Attending nightclubs, open-air bars or restaurants and crowded clubs, outdoor sporting events, crowded public transportation, and working in healthcare were associated with an increased infection risk. A negative association with infection, besides face mask use, was observed for attending open-air shows and sporting events in indoor spaces, visiting and hosting friends, attending courses in indoor spaces, performing sport activities (both indoor and outdoor), attending private parties, religious ceremonies, libraries, and indoor restaurants. These results might suggest that during the study period people maintained a particularly responsible and prudent approach when engaging in everyday activities to avoid spreading the virus.

The efficacy of bone reconstructive therapies in the management of peri-implantitis. A systematic review and meta-analysis.

AIM: To evaluate the efficacy of bone reconstructive procedures for the reduction of probing pocket depth (PPD), bleeding on probing (BOP), and suppuration in peri-implantitis-related bone defects at ≥12-month follow-up. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Three databases were searched for randomized controlled trials (RCTs) and controlled clinical trials (CCTs) that compared bone reconstructive therapies to access flap surgery (AFS) (Focused Question-FQ 1), and RCTs, CCTs, and prospective case series that assessed the efficacy of reconstructive therapies (FQ 2). Meta-analysis was performed for FQ1 when more than three studies were identified, while for FQ2 a network was drawn based on RCTs with common treatment arms. RESULTS: Seven RCTs were identified for FQ1 while five RCTs and six prospective case series for FQ2. There was no significant difference in PPD change between AFS and reconstructive surgery (-0.387; p = .325) at 12 months. Furthermore, no clear differences in terms of PPD and BOP changes resulted from the different reconstructive therapies included in the network. Only a small percentage of treated cases with any modality achieved peri-implantitis resolution, as defined by different composite outcomes. CONCLUSIONS: Reconstructive surgery does not offer significant improvements in peri-implant clinical parameters as compared to AFS at 12 months. It was not possible to establish a hierarchy of efficacy among the different biomaterials employed for reconstructive surgery.

Combining and comparing regional SARS-CoV-2 epidemic dynamics in Italy: Bayesian meta-analysis of compartmental models and global sensitivity analysis.

During autumn 2020, Italy faced a second important SARS-CoV-2 epidemic wave. We explored the time pattern of the instantaneous reproductive number, R 0(t), and estimated the prevalence of infections by region from August to December calibrating SIRD models on COVID-19-related deaths, fixing at values from literature Infection Fatality Rate (IFR) and average infection duration. A Global Sensitivity Analysis (GSA) was performed on the regional SIRD models. Then, we used Bayesian meta-analysis and meta-regression to combine and compare the regional results and investigate their heterogeneity. The meta-analytic R 0(t) curves were similar in the Northern and Central regions, while a less peaked curve was estimated for the South. The maximum R 0(t) ranged from 2.15 (South) to 2.61 (North) with an increase following school reopening and a decline at the end of October. The predictive performance of the regional models, assessed through cross validation, was good, with a Mean Absolute Percentage Error of 7.2% and 10.9% when considering prediction horizons of 7 and 14 days, respectively. Average temperature, urbanization, characteristics of family medicine and healthcare system, economic dynamism, and use of public transport could partly explain the regional heterogeneity. The GSA indicated the robustness of the regional R 0(t) curves to different assumptions on IFR. The infectious period turned out to have a key role in determining the model results, but without compromising between-region comparisons.

Promoting healthy lifestyle habits among participants in cancer screening programs: Results of the randomized controlled Sti.Vi study.

Background: Unhealthy diets, physical inactivity, alcohol and tobacco consumption are among the leading risk factors for non-communicable diseases. It is estimated that around 40% of cancers could be prevented by adopting healthy lifestyles. Design and methods: The Stili di Vita (Sti.Vi) study was a randomized study for assessing the impact of healthy lifestyle interventions on anthropometric measures, metabolic parameters, and health outcomes among participants of cancer screening programs in Turin (Italy). Eligible women aged 50-54 years, invited to biennial mammography screening, and 58-years-old men and women, invited to a once-only sigmoidoscopy for colorectal cancer (CRC) screening were randomly allocated to Diet group (DG), Physical Activity group (PAG), Physical Activity plus Diet group (PADG), or control group (CG). Physical and eating habits, metabolic and anthropometric measurements, repeatedly collected, were the study outcomes. The active intervention, offered to participants assigned to the DG, PAG, and PADG arms, consisted of a basic module and an advanced module. The effect of the interventions was estimated through logistic regression or a difference in differences approach. A multiple imputation procedure was implemented to deal with missing values and q-values have been calculated in the presence of multiple hypothesis testing. Results: Out of the 8442 screened attendees, 1270 signed informed consent, while 1125 participants accomplished the baseline visit. Participants were equally distributed across the four treatments as following: 273 (24.3%) in DG, 288 (25.6%) in the PAG, 283 (25.1%) in PADG, and 281 (25%) in the CG. Participants assigned to DG or PADG increased their consumption of whole grains (OR = 1.77, 95% CI: 1.20-2.60 and OR = 1.55, 95% CI: 1.06-2.27, respectively) and legumes (OR = 1.77, 95% CI: 1.12-2.79 and OR = 2.24, 95% CI: 1.41-3.57, respectively), with respect to CG. The participants randomized to DG reduced processed meat and increased fruit consumption (OR = 2.57, 95% CI: 1.76-3.76 and OR = 2.38, 95% CI: 1.12-5.06, respectively). The effects were more evident in the CRC screening subgroup. No relevant difference was observed between PAG and CG. No impact was observed on physical activity habits. Conclusions: Our findings suggest that active interventions can increase awareness and induce diet changes. However, participation rate and compliance to the courses was quite low, innovative strategies to enhance participants' retention are needed, with the ultimate goal of increasing awareness and inducing positive lifestyle changes.

Different actors for the same play: the impact of the embryologist performing the embryo transfer.

RESEARCH QUESTION: Does the embryologist performing the embryo transfer impact the cycle outcome, in terms of ongoing pregnancy rate (OPR)? DESIGN: This single-centre retrospective study analysed the results, corrected for main confounders, from 28 embryologists and 32 physicians who performed respectively 24,992 and 24,669 fresh embryo transfers (either at cleavage or blastocyst stage) during a 20-year period from January 2000 to December 2019, in a university-affiliated tertiary care assisted reproductive technology (ART) centre. Primary outcome was OPR, defined as the number of viable pregnancies that had completed at least 12 weeks of gestation on the total number of embryo transfers performed. The study also assessed whether the embryologist's experience, measured in terms of number of embryo transfers performed prior to the day of the procedure, had an impact on their performance. The secondary aim was to assess which variable, between the embryologist and physician, more significantly impacted OPR. RESULTS: The overall unadjusted OPR was 22.54%. The embryologist performing the embryo transfer was found to significantly affect the OPR (P < 0.0001), corrected for potential confounders. However, the physician factor made a slightly greater contribution to the model (likelihood ratio 21.86, P < 0.001 versus likelihood ratio 17.20, P < 0.0001). No significant association was found between the experience of the embryologist and OPR (P = 0.067). CONCLUSIONS: These results show how the 'human factor' influences the chances of a positive outcome in the final step of a high-tech procedure and underline the importance of implementing an operator quality performance programme (both for physicians and embryologists) to ensure the maintenance of benchmark results and eventually retrain underperforming operators.

Mortality for Lung Cancer among PVC Baggers Employed in the Vinyl Chloride Industry.

Vinyl-chloride monomer (VCM) is classified as a known carcinogen of the liver; for lung cancer, some results suggest a potential association with polyvinyl chloride (PVC) dust. We evaluated the relationship between lung cancer mortality and exposure as PVC baggers in a cohort of workers involved in VCM production and polymerization in Porto Marghera (Venice, Italy) considering both employment status and smoking habits. The workers were studied between 1973 and 2017. A subset of them (848 over 1658) was interviewed in the 2000s to collect information about smoking habits and alcohol consumption. Missing values were imputed by the Multivariate Imputation by Chained Equations (MICE) algorithm. We calculated standardized mortality ratios (SMR) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CIs) using regional reference rates by task (never, ever, and exclusively baggers) and by smoking habits. Mortality rate ratios (MRR), adjusted for age, calendar time, time since first exposure, and smoking habits, were obtained via Poisson regression using Rubin's rule to combine results from imputed datasets calculating the fraction of information due to non-response. Lung cancer mortality was lower than the regional reference in the whole cohort (lung cancer SMR = 0.92; 95% CI 0.75-1.11). PVC baggers showed a 50% increase in lung cancer mortality compared to regional rates (SMR = 1.48; 95% CI 0.82-2.68). In the cohort analyses, a doubled risk of lung cancer mortality among PVC baggers was confirmed after adjustment for smoking and time-dependent covariates (MRR = 1.99, 95% CI 1.04-3.81). Exposure to PVC dust resulting from activity as bagger in a polymerization PVC plant was associated with an increase in lung cancer mortality risk after adjustment for smoking habits.

Assessment of the feasibility of pool testing for SARS-CoV-2 infection screening.

BACKGROUND: SARS-CoV-2 pandemic represented a huge challenge for national health systems worldwide. Pooling nasopharyngeal (NP) swabs seems to be a promising strategy, saving time and resources, but it could reduce the sensitivity of the RT-PCR and exacerbate samples management in terms of automation and tracing. In this study, taking advantage of the routine implementation of a screening plan on health workers, we evaluated the feasibility of pool testing for SARS-CoV-2 infection diagnosis in the presence of low viral load samples. METHOD: Pools were prepared with an automated instrument, mixing 4, 6 or 20 NP specimens, including one, two or none positive samples. Ct values of positive samples were on average about 35 for the four genes analyzed. RESULTS: The overall sensitivity of 4-samples and 6-samples pools was 93.1 and 90.0%, respectively. Focussing on pools including one sample with Ct value ≥35 for all analyzed genes, sensitivity decreased to 77.8 and 75.0% for 4- and 6-samples, respectively; pools including two positive samples, resulted positive in any size as well as pools including positive samples with Ct values <35. CONCLUSION: Pool testing strategy should account the balance between cost-effectiveness, dilution effect and prevalence of the infection. Our study demonstrated the good performances in terms of sensitivity and saving resources of pool testing mixing 4 or 6 samples, even including low viral load specimens, in a real screening context possibly affected by prevalence fluctuation. In conclusion, pool testing strategy represents an efficient and resources saving surveillance and tracing tool, especially in specific context like schools, even for monitoring changes in prevalence associated to vaccination campaign.

Impact of resistance mutations on efficacy of dolutegravir plus rilpivirine or plus lamivudine as maintenance regimens: a cohort study.

OBJECTIVES: The aim of this study was to evaluate the impact of resistance mutations on efficacy of dolutegravir-based two-drug regimens (2DR). METHODS: Virologically suppressed patients with HIV-1 switching to dolutegravir + lamivudine or rilpivirine or to a dolutegravir-based three-drug regimen (3DR) with pre-baseline genotype were selected. Virological failure (VF) was defined as one HIV-RNA viral load (VL) >200 cps/mL or two consecutive VL >50 cps/mL; treatment failure (TF) was defined as VF or treatment discontinuation (TD). Resistance was defined as at least low-level resistance to at least one drug of the current regimen. Propensity score matching was used to conduct adjusted analyses within a competing risks framework. RESULTS: A total of 971 dolutegravir-based regimens were selected: 339 (34.9%) 2DR and 632 (65.1%) 3DR. The adjusted cumulative 48-week incidence of VF was 4.2% (90% CI 3.1%-5.3%) with 2DR and 4.7% (90% CI 3.5%-5.8%) with 3DR. The cumulative 48-week incidence of TF was 15.8% (90% CI 13.9%-17.9%) with 2DR and 24.5% (90% CI 22.2%-27.0%) with 3DR. For VF, the estimated hazard ratio (HR) for 2DR vs. 3DR was 1.02 (90% CI: 0.78-1.34), with evidence of effect modification by low-level resistance (HR 3.96, 90% CI: 2.10-7.46). The estimated HR of TF for 2DR vs. 3DR was 0.54 (90% CI: 0.48-0.60). The 48-week cumulative incidence of TD was 11.7% (8.7%, 14.6%) in 2DR and 19.6% (16.9%, 22.4%) in 3DR. CONCLUSIONS: Dolutegravir-based 2DR showed high virological efficacy and durability; however, past resistance increased the risk of VF, but not of TD or TF.

Application of FLIC model to predict adverse events onset in neuroendocrine tumors treated with PRRT.

To develop predictive models of side effect occurrence in GEPNET treated with PRRT. Metastatic GEPNETs patients treated in our centre with PRRT (177Lu-Oxodotreotide) from 2019 to 2020 were considered. Haematological, liver and renal toxicities were collected and graded according to CTCAE v5. Patients were grouped according with ECOG-PS, number of metastatic sites, previous treatment lines and therapies received before PRRT. A FLIC model with backward selection was used to detect the most relevant predictors. A subsampling approach was implemented to assess variable selection stability and model performance. Sixty-seven patients (31 males, 36 females, mean age 63) treated with PRRT were considered and followed up for 30 weeks from the beginning of the therapy. They were treated with PRRT as third or further lines in 34.3% of cases. All the patients showed at least one G1-G2, meanwhile G3-G5 were rare events. No renal G3-G4 were reported. Line of PRRT administration, age, gender and ECOG-PS were the main predictors of haematological, liver and renal CTCAE. The model performance, expressed by AUC, was > 65% for anaemia, creatinine and eGFR. The application of FLIC model can be useful to improve GEPNET decision-making, allowing clinicians to identify the better therapeutic sequence to avoid PRRT-related adverse events, on the basis of patient characteristics and previous treatment lines.

Screening plans for SARS-CoV-2 based on sampling and rotation: An example in a European school setting.

Screening plans for prevention and containment of SARS-CoV-2 infection should take into account the epidemic context, the fact that undetected infected individuals may transmit the disease and that the infection spreads through outbreaks, creating clusters in the population. In this paper, we compare through simulations the performance of six screening plans based on poorly sensitive individual tests, in detecting infection outbreaks at the level of single classes in a typical European school context. The performance evaluation is done by simulating different epidemic dynamics within the class during the four weeks following the day of the initial infection. The plans have different costs in terms of number of individual tests required for the screening and are based on recurrent evaluations on all students or subgroups of students in rotation. Especially in scenarios where the rate of contagion is high, at an equal cost, testing half of the class in rotation every week appears to be better in terms of sensitivity than testing all students every two weeks. Similarly, testing one-fourth of the students every week is comparable with testing all students every two weeks, despite the first one is a much cheaper strategy. In conclusion, we show that in the presence of natural clusters in the population, testing subgroups of individuals belonging to the same cluster in rotation may have a better performance than testing all the individuals less frequently. The proposed simulations approach can be extended to evaluate more complex screening plans than those presented in the paper.

Pool testing on random and natural clusters of individuals: Optimisation of SARS-CoV-2 surveillance in the presence of low viral load samples.

Facing the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic requires intensive testing on the population to early identify and isolate infected subjects. During the first emergency phase of the epidemic, RT-qPCR on nasopharyngeal (NP) swabs, which is the most reliable technique to detect ongoing infections, exhibited limitations due to availability of reagents and budget constraints. This stressed the need to develop screening procedures that require fewer resources and are suitable to be extended to larger portions of the population. RT-qPCR on pooled samples from individual NP swabs seems to be a promising technique to improve surveillance. We performed preliminary experimental analyses aimed to investigate the performance of pool testing on samples with low viral load and we evaluated through Monte Carlo (MC) simulations alternative screening protocols based on sample pooling, tailored to contexts characterized by different infection prevalence. We focused on the role of pool size and the opportunity to develop strategies that take advantage of natural clustering structures in the population, e.g. families, school classes, hospital rooms. Despite the use of a limited number of specimens, our results suggest that, while high viral load samples seem to be detectable even in a pool with 29 negative samples, positive specimens with low viral load may be masked by the negative samples, unless smaller pools are used. The results of MC simulations confirm that pool testing is useful in contexts where the infection prevalence is low. The gain of pool testing in saving resources can be very high, and can be optimized by selecting appropriate group sizes. Exploiting natural groups makes the definition of larger pools convenient and potentially overcomes the issue of low viral load samples by increasing the probability of identifying more than one positive in the same pool.

The first wave of the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic in Tuscany (Italy): A SI2R2D compartmental model with uncertainty evaluation.

With the aim of studying the spread of the SARS-CoV-2 infection in the Tuscany region of Italy during the first epidemic wave (February-June 2020), we define a compartmental model that accounts for both detected and undetected infections and assumes that only notified cases can die. We estimate the infection fatality rate, the case fatality rate, and the basic reproduction number, modeled as a time-varying function, by calibrating on the cumulative daily number of observed deaths and notified infected, after fixing to plausible values the other model parameters to assure identifiability. The confidence intervals are estimated by a parametric bootstrap procedure and a Global Sensitivity Analysis is performed to assess the sensitivity of the estimates to changes in the values of the fixed parameters. According to our results, the basic reproduction number drops from an initial value of 6.055 to 0 at the end of the national lockdown, then it grows again, but remaining under 1. At the beginning of the epidemic, the case and the infection fatality rates are estimated to be 13.1% and 2.3%, respectively. Among the parameters considered as fixed, the average time from infection to recovery for the not notified infected appears to be the most impacting one on the model estimates. The probability for an infected to be notified has a relevant impact on the infection fatality rate and on the shape of the epidemic curve. This stresses the need of collecting information on these parameters to better understand the phenomenon and get reliable predictions.

Employment Instability and Fertility in Europe: A Meta-Analysis.

The relationship between employment instability and fertility is a major topic in demographic research, with a proliferation of published papers on this matter, especially since the Great Recession. Employment instability, which most often manifests in unemployment or time-limited employment, is usually deemed to have a negative effect on fertility, although different fertility reactions are hypothesized by sociological theories, and micro-level evidence is fragmented and contradictory. We used meta-analytic techniques to synthesize European research findings, offer general conclusions about the effects of employment instability on fertility (in terms of direction and size), and rank different sources of employment instability. Our results suggest that employment instability has a nonnegligible negative effect on fertility. Men's unemployment is more detrimental for fertility than men's time-limited employment; conversely, a woman having a fixed-term contract is least likely to have a child. Next, the negative effect of employment instability on fertility has become stronger over time, and is more severe in Southern European countries, where social protection for families and the unemployed is least generous. Finally, meta-regression estimates demonstrate that failing to account for income and partner characteristics leads to an overestimation of the negative effect of employment instability on fertility. We advance the role of these two factors as potential mechanisms by which employment instability affects fertility. Overall, this meta-analysis provides the empirical foundation for new studies on the topic.

Psychological distress in the academic population and its association with socio-demographic and lifestyle characteristics during COVID-19 pandemic lockdown: Results from a large multicenter Italian study.

Measures implemented in many countries to contain the COVID-19 pandemic resulted in a change in lifestyle with unpredictable consequences on physical and mental health. We aimed at identifying the variables associated with psychological distress during the lockdown between April and May 2020 in the Italian academic population. We conducted a multicenter cross-sectional online survey (IO CONTO 2020) within five Italian universities. Among about 240,000 individuals invited to participate through institutional communications, 18 120 filled the questionnaire. Psychological distress was measured by the self-administered Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale (HADS). The covariates collected included demographic and lifestyle characteristics, trust in government, doctors and scientists. Associations of covariates with influenza-like symptoms or positive COVID-19 test and with psychological distress were assessed by multiple regression models at the local level; a meta-analysis of the results was then performed. Severe levels of anxiety or depression were reported by 20% of the sample and were associated with being a student or having a lower income, irrespective of their health condition and worries about contracting the virus. The probability of being severely anxious or depressed also depended on physical activity: compared to those never exercising, the highest OR being for those who stopped during lockdown (1.53; 95% CI, 1.28 to 1.84) and the lowest for those who continued (0.78; 95% CI, 0.64 to 0.95). Up to 21% of severe cases of anxiety or depression might have been avoided if during lockdown participants had continued to exercise as before. Socioeconomic insecurity contributes to increase mental problems related to the COVID-19 pandemic and to the measures to contain it. Maintaining or introducing an adequate level of physical activity is likely to mitigate such detrimental effects. Promoting safe practice of physical activity should remain a public health priority to reduce health risks during the pandemic.

Missing not at random in end of life care studies: multiple imputation and sensitivity analysis on data from the ACTION study.

BACKGROUND: Missing data are common in end-of-life care studies, but there is still relatively little exploration of which is the best method to deal with them, and, in particular, if the missing at random (MAR) assumption is valid or missing not at random (MNAR) mechanisms should be assumed. In this paper we investigated this issue through a sensitivity analysis within the ACTION study, a multicenter cluster randomized controlled trial testing advance care planning in patients with advanced lung or colorectal cancer. METHODS: Multiple imputation procedures under MAR and MNAR assumptions were implemented. Possible violation of the MAR assumption was addressed with reference to variables measuring quality of life and symptoms. The MNAR model assumed that patients with worse health were more likely to have missing questionnaires, making a distinction between single missing items, which were assumed to satisfy the MAR assumption, and missing values due to completely missing questionnaire for which a MNAR mechanism was hypothesized. We explored the sensitivity to possible departures from MAR on gender differences between key indicators and on simple correlations. RESULTS: Up to 39% of follow-up data were missing. Results under MAR reflected that missingness was related to poorer health status. Correlations between variables, although very small, changed according to the imputation method, as well as the differences in scores by gender, indicating a certain sensitivity of the results to the violation of the MAR assumption. CONCLUSIONS: The findings confirmed the importance of undertaking this kind of analysis in end-of-life care studies.

Machine and Deep Learning Prediction Of Prostate Cancer Aggressiveness Using Multiparametric MRI.

Prostate cancer (PCa) is the most frequent male malignancy and the assessment of PCa aggressiveness, for which a biopsy is required, is fundamental for patient management. Currently, multiparametric (mp) MRI is strongly recommended before biopsy. Quantitative assessment of mpMRI might provide the radiologist with an objective and noninvasive tool for supporting the decision-making in clinical practice and decreasing intra- and inter-reader variability. In this view, high dimensional radiomics features and Machine Learning (ML) techniques, along with Deep Learning (DL) methods working on raw images directly, could assist the radiologist in the clinical workflow. The aim of this study was to develop and validate ML/DL frameworks on mpMRI data to characterize PCas according to their aggressiveness. We optimized several ML/DL frameworks on T2w, ADC and T2w+ADC data, using a patient-based nested validation scheme. The dataset was composed of 112 patients (132 peripheral lesions with Prostate Imaging Reporting and Data System (PI-RADS) score ≥ 3) acquired following both PI-RADS 2.0 and 2.1 guidelines. Firstly, ML/DL frameworks trained and validated on PI-RADS 2.0 data were tested on both PI-RADS 2.0 and 2.1 data. Then, we trained, validated and tested ML/DL frameworks on a multi PI-RADS dataset. We reported the performances in terms of Area Under the Receiver Operating curve (AUROC), specificity and sensitivity. The ML/DL frameworks trained on T2w data achieved the overall best performance. Notably, ML and DL frameworks trained and validated on PI-RADS 2.0 data obtained median AUROC values equal to 0.750 and 0.875, respectively, on unseen PI-RADS 2.0 test set. Similarly, ML/DL frameworks trained and validated on multi PI-RADS T2w data showed median AUROC values equal to 0.795 and 0.750, respectively, on unseen multi PI-RADS test set. Conversely, all the ML/DL frameworks trained and validated on PI-RADS 2.0 data, achieved AUROC values no better than the chance level when tested on PI-RADS 2.1 data. Both ML/DL techniques applied on mpMRI seem to be a valid aid in predicting PCa aggressiveness. In particular, ML/DL frameworks fed with T2w images data (objective, fast and non-invasive) show good performances and might support decision-making in patient diagnostic and therapeutic management, reducing intra- and inter-reader variability.