Higher-Dose Primaquine to Prevent Relapse of Plasmodium vivax Malaria.

BACKGROUND: In most of the Americas, the recommended treatment to prevent relapse of Plasmodium vivax malaria is primaquine at a total dose of 3.5 mg per kilogram of body weight, despite evidence of only moderate efficacy. METHODS: In this trial conducted in Brazil, we evaluated three primaquine regimens to prevent relapse of P. vivax malaria in children at least 5 years of age and in adults with microscopy-confirmed P. vivax monoinfection. All the patients received directly observed chloroquine for 3 days (total dose, 25 mg per kilogram). Group 1 received a total primaquine dose of 3.5 mg per kilogram (0.5 mg per kilogram per day) over 7 days with unobserved administration; group 2 received the same regimen as group 1 but with observed administration; and group 3 received a total primaquine dose of 7.0 mg per kilogram over 14 days (also 0.5 mg per kilogram per day) with observed administration. We monitored the patients for 168 days. RESULTS: We enrolled 63 patients in group 1, 96 in group 2, and 95 in group 3. The median age of the patients was 22.4 years (range, 5.4 to 79.8). By day 28, three P. vivax recurrences were observed: 2 in group 1 and 1 in group 2. By day 168, a total of 70 recurrences had occurred: 24 in group 1, 34 in group 2, and 12 in group 3. No serious adverse events were noted. On day 168, the percentage of patients without recurrence was 58% (95% confidence interval [CI], 44 to 70) in group 1, 59% (95% CI, 47 to 69) in group 2, and 86% (95% CI, 76 to 92) in group 3. Survival analysis showed a difference in the day 168 recurrence-free percentage of 27 percentage points (97.5% CI, 10 to 44; P<0.001) between group 1 and group 3 and a difference of 27 percentage points (97.5% CI, 12 to 42; P<0.001) between group 2 and group 3. CONCLUSIONS: The administration of primaquine at a total dose of 7.0 mg per kilogram had higher efficacy in preventing relapse of P. vivax malaria than a total dose of 3.5 mg per kilogram through day 168. (Supported by the U.S. Agency for International Development; ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT03610399.).

Enteropathogen Changes After Rotavirus Vaccine Scale-up.

OBJECTIVES: To inform next steps in pediatric diarrhea burden reduction by understanding the shifting enteropathogen landscape after rotavirus vaccine implementation. METHODS: We conducted a case-control study of 1788 medically attended children younger than 5 years, with and without gastroenteritis, after universal rotavirus vaccine implementation in Peru. We tested case and control stools for 5 viruses, 19 bacteria, and parasites; calculated coinfection-adjusted attributable fractions (AFs) to determine pathogen-specific burdens; and evaluated pathogen-specific gastroenteritis severity using Clark and Vesikari scales. RESULTS: Six pathogens were independently positively associated with gastroenteritis: norovirus genogroup II (GII) (AF 29.1, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 28.0-32.3), rotavirus (AF 8.9, 95% CI: 6.8-9.7), sapovirus (AF 6.3, 95% CI: 4.3-7.4), astrovirus (AF 2.8, 95% CI: 0.0-4.0); enterotoxigenic Escherichia coli heat stable and/or heat labile and heat stable (AF 2.4, 95% CI: 0.6-3.1), and Shigella spp. (AF 2.0, 95% CI: 0.4-2.2). Among typeable rotavirus cases, we most frequently identified partially heterotypic strain G12P[8] (54 of 81, 67%). Mean severity was significantly higher for norovirus GII-positive cases relative to norovirus GII-negative cases (Vesikari [12.7 vs 11.8; P < .001] and Clark [11.7 vs 11.4; P = .016]), and cases in the 6- to 12-month age range relative to cases in other age groups (Vesikari [12.7 vs 12.0; P = .0002] and Clark [12.0 vs 11.4; P = .0016]). CONCLUSIONS: Norovirus is well recognized as the leading cause of pediatric gastroenteritis in settings with universal rotavirus vaccination. However, sapovirus is often overlooked. Both norovirus and sapovirus contribute significantly to the severe pediatric disease burden in this setting. Decision-makers should consider multivalent vaccine acquisition strategies to target multiple caliciviruses in similar countries after successful rotavirus vaccine implementation.

Assessing 3 Outbreak Detection Algorithms in an Electronic Syndromic Surveillance System in a Resource-Limited Setting.

We evaluated the performance of X-bar chart, exponentially weighted moving average, and C3 cumulative sums aberration detection algorithms for acute diarrheal disease syndromic surveillance at naval sites in Peru during 2007-2011. The 3 algorithms' detection sensitivity was 100%, specificity was 97%-99%, and positive predictive value was 27%-46%.

Application of a cost-effectiveness analysis of pathogen-specific vaccines against gastroenteritis to a military population in a developing country setting.

Vaccine implementation planning in low- and middle-income countries (LMIC) often focuses on children without considering special adult populations. We adapted an economic model developed by the United States Department of Defense (DoD) to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of vaccine acquisition strategies for Campylobacter-, ETEC-, Shigella-, and norovirus-associated gastroenteritis. We compared implementation costs with current medical management in the Peruvian armed forces, a special population of low- and middle-income (LMIC) adults with a high incidence of infectious gastroenteritis. Pathogen-specific vaccine implementation resulted in calculated cost-effectiveness ratio (CER) per duty day lost averted (CERDDL) of $13,741; $1,272; $301; and $803, and a CER per diarrhea day averted of $2,130; $215; $51; and $199 for Campylobacter, ETEC, Shigella, and norovirus, respectively. These estimates compare favorably to CERDDL estimates from high-income military population and suggest that implementing vaccines gastroenteritis may be cost-effective in the Peruvian military population.

Minimally Invasive Saliva Testing to Monitor Norovirus Infection in Community Settings.

BACKGROUND: Norovirus is a leading cause of acute gastroenteritis worldwide. Routine norovirus diagnosis requires stool collection. The goal of this study was to develop and validate a noninvasive method to diagnose norovirus to complement stool diagnostics and to facilitate studies on transmission. METHODS: A multiplex immunoassay to measure salivary immunoglobulin G (IgG) responses to 5 common norovirus genotypes (GI.1, GII.2, GII.4, GII.6, and GII.17) was developed. The assay was validated using acute and convalescent saliva samples collected from Peruvian children <5 years of age with polymerase chain reaction (PCR)-diagnosed norovirus infections (n = 175) and controls (n = 32). The assay sensitivity and specificity were calculated to determine infection status based on fold rise of salivary norovirus genotype-specific IgG using norovirus genotype from stool as reference. RESULTS: The salivary assay detected recent norovirus infections and correctly assigned the infecting genotype. Sensitivity was 71% and specificity was 96% across the evaluated genotypes compared to PCR-diagnosed norovirus infection. CONCLUSIONS: This saliva-based assay will be a useful tool to monitor norovirus transmission in high-risk settings such as daycare centers or hospitals. Cross-reactivity is limited between the tested genotypes, which represent the most commonly circulating genotypes.

First Report of Trypanosoma cruzi Infection in Salivary Gland of Bats from the Peruvian Amazon.

In the Americas, 8 million people are infected with Chagas disease, and an additional 90 million people are at risk for infection. Little is known about the role bats play in the sylvatic transmission cycle of Trypanosoma cruzi, the parasite causing Chagas disease. Here, we captured bats in the villages of Palmiche, Pachacutec, Nuevo San Martin, and Mayuriaga located in the Datem del Marañon Province in Loreto, Peru. Venous blood samples were collected by cardiac puncture or from the upper extremities, and trypanosomatids were identified by microscopy and molecularly. We collected blood samples from 121 bats on filter paper for molecular studies and 111 slides for microscopic examination of thin and thick blood smears from 16 different bat species. The prevalence of trypanosomatids in all bats species was 34.7% (42/121) and the prevalence of T. cruzi was 4.1% (5/121). In hematophagous bat species, the prevalence of trypanosomatids and T. cruzi was 36.9% (27/73) and 2.7% (2/73), respectively. In non-hematophagous bats, the prevalences of trypanosomatids and T. cruzi were 31.2% (15/48) and 6.2% (3/48), respectively. Also, we confirm the presence of T. cruzi in salivary glands of hematophagous bats Diaemus youngi. These results suggest a sylvatic cycle of trypanosomatid transmission in which bats may harbor infectious T. cruzi parasites that could be transmitted to humans via hematophagous bat bites or salivary contamination by non-hematophagous bats of vegetables consumed by humans.

Prevalence of and Factors Associated with Negative Microscopic Diagnosis of Cutaneous Leishmaniasis in Rural Peru.

Cutaneous leishmaniasis is endemic to South America where diagnosis is most commonly conducted via microscopy. Patients with suspected leishmaniasis were referred for enrollment by the Ministry of Health (MoH) in Lima, Iquitos, Puerto Maldonado, and several rural areas of Peru. A 43-question survey requesting age, gender, occupation, characterization of the lesion(s), history of leishmaniasis, and insect-deterrent behaviors was administered. Polymerase chain reaction (PCR) was conducted on lesion materials at the Naval Medical Research Unit No. 6 in Lima, and the results were compared with those obtained by the MoH using microscopy. Factors associated with negative microscopy and positive PCR results were identified using χ2 test, t-test, and multivariate logistic regression analyses. Negative microscopy with positive PCR occurred in 31% (123/403) of the 403 cases. After adjusting for confounders, binary multivariate logistic regression analyses revealed that negative microscopy with positive PCR was associated with patients who were male (adjusted odds ration [OR] = 1.93 [1.06-3.53], P = 0.032), had previous leishmaniasis (adjusted OR = 2.93 [1.65-5.22], P < 0.0001), had larger lesions (adjusted OR = 1.02 [1.003-1.03], P = 0.016), and/or had a longer duration between lesion appearance and PCR testing (adjusted OR = 1.12 [1.02-1.22], P = 0.017). Future research should focus on further exploration of these underlying variables, discovery of other factors that may be associated with negative microscopy diagnosis, and the development and implementation of improved testing in endemic regions.

Updated CDC Recommendations for Using Artemether-Lumefantrine for the Treatment of Uncomplicated Malaria in Pregnant Women in the United States.

Malaria infection during pregnancy is associated with an increased risk for maternal and fetal complications. In the United States, treatment options for uncomplicated, chloroquine-resistant Plasmodium falciparum and P. vivax malaria in pregnant women are limited to mefloquine or quinine plus clindamycin (1). However, limited availability of quinine and increasing resistance to mefloquine restrict these options. Strong evidence now demonstrates that artemether-lumefantrine (AL) (Coartem) is effective and safe in the treatment of malaria in pregnancy. The World Health Organization (WHO) has endorsed artemisinin-based combination therapies (ACTs), such as AL, for treatment of uncomplicated malaria during the second and third trimesters of pregnancy and is currently considering whether to add ACTs, including AL, as an option for malaria treatment during the first trimester (2,3). This policy note reviews the evidence and updates CDC recommendations to include AL as a treatment option for uncomplicated malaria during the second and third trimesters of pregnancy and during the first trimester of pregnancy when other treatment options are unavailable. These updated recommendations reflect current evidence and are consistent with WHO treatment guidelines.

Epidemiology of Sapovirus Infections in a Birth Cohort in Peru.

Background: Sapovirus is one of the primary viral causes of acute gastroenteritis (AGE), especially where rotavirus vaccination has been implemented. The characteristics and impact of natural infection at the community level, however, have not been well documented. Methods: Stool samples were analyzed from 100 children randomly selected from a community-based birth cohort study in Peru. All diarrheal and 1 nondiarrheal stools collected trimonthly from children up to age 2 years (n = 1669) were tested for sapovirus detection. Viral shedding duration was determined by testing additional weekly samples (n = 440) collected before and after a sapovirus-positive sample. Results: The incidence of sapovirus infection in the first and second years of life was 4.3 and 11.1 per 100 child-months, respectively. By age 2 years, 82% of children had at least 1 sapovirus infection, and 64% had at least 1 sapovirus-associated diarrhea episode. The median shedding period was 18.5 days. In 112 of 175 infections, 14 genotypes from 4 genogroups (GI, GII, GIV, and GV) were determined. Among genogroups, GI were more frequently found in symptomatic infections than in asymptomatic infections (odds ratio, 3.1; 95% confidence interval, 1.3-7.4). Fifty-nine children had serial sapovirus infections, but only 3 had repeated infection of the same genotype. Conclusions: Sapovirus was frequently detected in children with AGE at the community level during the first 2 years of life. Serial sapovirus infections by multiple genotypes in a child suggest genotype-specific immunity from each infection, which needs to be taken into account for vaccine development.

Distribution and identification of sand flies naturally infected with Leishmania from the Southeastern Peruvian Amazon.

BACKGROUND: Cutaneous leishmaniasis (CL) is an important health problem in the New World affecting civilian and military populations that are frequently exposed in endemic settings. The Peruvian region of Madre de Dios located near the border with Brazil is one of the most endemic CL regions in South America with more than 4,451 reported cases between 2010 and 2015 according to the Peruvian epidemiology directorate. However, little is known regarding the diversity and distribution of sand fly vectors in this region. In this study, we aimed to characterize the sand fly fauna in this endemic setting and identify sand fly species naturally infected with Leishmania possibly involved in pathogen transmission. METHODS: Sand fly collections were carried out during 2014 and 2015 in the communities of Flor de Acre, Villa Primavera, Mavila and Arca Pacahuara using CDC light traps and Shannon traps. Collected specimens were identified and non-blood-fed females were selected for Leishmania infection screening using kinetoplastid DNA-PCR (kDNA-PCR) and nested Real time PCR for species identification. RESULTS: A total of 10,897 phlebotomines belonging to the genus Lutzomyia (58 species) and Brumptomyia (2 species) were collected. Our study confirmed the widespread distribution and abundance of Lutzomyia (Trichophoromyia) spp. (24%), Lu. whitmani (19.4%) and Lu. yucumensis (15.8%) in the region. Analysis of Shannon diversity index indicates variability in sand fly composition across sites with Villa Primavera presenting the highest sand fly diversity and abundance. Leishmania screening by kDNA-PCR resulted in 45 positive pools collected from Flor de Acre (34 pools), Mavila (10 pools) and Arca Pacahuara (1 pool) and included 14 species: Lu. yucumensis, Lu. aragoi, Lu. sallesi, Lu. sherlocki, Lu. shawi, Lu. walkeri, Lu nevesi, Lu. migonei, Lu. davisi, Lu. carrerai, Lu. hirsuta, Lu. (Trichophoromyia) spp., Lu. llanosmartinsi and Lu. whitmani. Lutzomyia sherlocki, Lu. walkeri and Lu. llanosmartinsi had the highest infection rates (8%, 7% and 6%, respectively). We identified Leishmania guyanensis in two Lu. whitmani pools, and L. braziliensis in two Lu. llanosmartinsi pools and one Lu. davisi pool. CONCLUSIONS: Based on our collections there is high sand fly diversity in Madre de Dios, with differences in sand fly abundance and species composition across sites. We identified 14 sand fly species naturally infected with Leishmania spp., having detected natural infection with L. (V.) guyanensis and L. (V.) braziliensis in three sand fly species. These results suggest the presence of several potential vectors that vary in their spatial and geographical distribution, which could explain the high prevalence of CL cases in this region.

Case-Case Analysis Using 7 Years of Travelers' Diarrhea Surveillance Data: Preventive and Travel Medicine Applications in Cusco, Peru.

AbstractIn Cusco, Peru, and South America in general, there is a dearth of travelers' diarrhea (TD) data concerning the clinical features associated with enteropathogen-specific infections and destination-specific risk behaviors. Understanding these factors would allow travel medicine providers to tailor interventions to patients' risk profiles and travel destination. To characterize TD etiology, evaluate region-specific TD risk factors, and examine relationships between preventive recommendations and risk-taking behaviors among medium- to long-term travelers' from high-income countries, we conducted this case-case analysis using 7 years of prospective surveillance data from adult travelers' presenting with TD to a physician in Cusco. At the time of enrollment, participants provided a stool sample and answered survey questions about demographics, risk behaviors, and the clinical features of illness. Stool samples were tested for norovirus (NV), bacteria, and parasites using conventional methods. Data obtained were then analyzed using case-case methods. NV (14%), enterotoxigenic Escherichia coli (11%), and Campylobacter (9%), notably ciprofloxacin-resistant Campylobacter, were the most frequently identified pathogens among adults with TD. Coinfection with multiple enteropathogens occurred in 5% of cases. NV caused severe disease relative to other TD-associated pathogens identified, confining over 90% of infected individuals to bed. Destination-specific risk factors include consumption of the local beverage "chicha," which was associated with Cryptosporidium infection. Preventive interventions, such as vaccines, directed against these pathogens could significantly reduce the burden of TD.

The American College of Preventive Medicine Policy Recommendations on Reducing and Preventing Firearm-Related Injuries and Deaths.

The American College of Preventive Medicine Policy Committee makes policy guidelines and recommendations on preventive medicine and public health topics for public health decision makers. After a review of the current evidence available in 2016, the College is providing a consensus-based set of policy recommendations designed to reduce firearm-related morbidity and mortality in the U.S. These guidelines address seven general areas pertaining to the public health threat posed by firearms: gun sales and background checks, assault weapons and high-capacity weapons, mental health, research funding, gun storage laws, and physician counseling.

Tropical and travel-associated norovirus: current concepts.

PURPOSE OF REVIEW: We highlight recent advances relevant to understanding norovirus infections in the tropics, both in populations living in developing settings and travelers to these regions. RECENT FINDINGS: Because of the decrease in diarrheal disease associated with the global rollout of vaccines against rotavirus, norovirus is emerging as the predominant cause of diarrhea morbidity among children in the tropics, and evidence suggests that it contributes to adult disease in endemic populations and travelers. In addition to identifying potential target populations for preventive measures, we provide an update on norovirus vaccine development and concepts related to their implementation in low-income and middle-income countries. SUMMARY: These current concepts related to norovirus-attributable disease burden, clinical significance, and economic impact can potentially be applied to tailoring efforts to prevent and mitigate the effects of this important enteropathogen.

Epidemiology and Genetic Characterization of Noroviruses among Adults in an Endemic Setting, Peruvian Amazon Basin, 2004-2011.

BACKGROUND: Successful vaccination strategies against norovirus will require understanding the burden of disease and relevant genotypes in populations. However, few data are available from cohort studies of adults living in low- and middle-income countries (LMIC). MATERIALS AND METHODS: We conducted a nested case-control study within a Peruvian military cohort to characterize the burden of norovirus infection, predominant genotypes, and associated symptoms from 2004 through 2011. Randomly selected case and control stools were tested for norovirus, bacteria, and parasites. The odds ratio of the association between norovirus infection and diarrhea was estimated using multiple logistic regression and co-infection adjusted attributable fractions were calculated. RESULTS: Of the 3,818 cohort study participants, 624 developed diarrhea. Overall and norovirus-associated diarrhea incidence rates were 42.3 and 6.0 per 100 person-years, respectively. The most prevalent norovirus genogroup was GII (72.5%, 29/40), which was associated with diarrhea (AOR 3.4, 95% CI: 1.3-8.7, P = 0.012). The co-infection adjusted GII attributable fraction was 6.4%. DISCUSSION: Norovirus was a frequent cause of diarrhea in an adult population followed longitudinally in an LMIC setting. Vaccine strategies should consider targeting adults in endemic settings and special populations that could serve as community transmission sources.

Cost-effectiveness of norovirus vaccination in children in Peru.

BACKGROUND: With candidate norovirus (NV) vaccines in a rapid phase of development, assessment of the potential economic value of vaccine implementation will be necessary to aid health officials in vaccine implementation decisions. To date, no evaluations have been performed to evaluate the benefit of adopting NV vaccines for use in the childhood immunization programs of low- and middle-income countries. METHODS: We used a Markov decision model to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of adding a two-dose NV vaccine to Peru's routine childhood immunization schedule using two recent estimates of NV incidence, one for a peri-urban region and one for a jungle region of the country. RESULTS: Using the peri-urban NV incidence estimate, the annual cost of vaccination would be $13.0 million, offset by $2.6 million in treatment savings. Overall, this would result in 473 total DALYs averted; 526,245 diarrhea cases averted;153,735 outpatient visits averted; and 414 hospitalizations averted between birth and the fifth year of life. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio would be $21,415 per DALY averted; $19.86 per diarrhea case; $68.23 per outpatient visit; and $26,298 per hospitalization. Using the higher jungle NV incidence rates provided a lower cost per DALY of $10,135. The incremental cost per DALY with per-urban NV incidence is greater than three times the 2012 GDP per capita of Peru but the estimate drops below this threshold using the incidence from the jungle setting. In addition to the impact of incidence, sensitivity analysis showed that vaccine price and efficacy play a strong role in determining the level of cost-effectiveness. CONCLUSIONS: The introduction of a NV vaccine would prevent many healthcare outcomes in the Peru and potentially be cost-effective in scenarios with high NV incidence. The vaccine cost-effectiveness model could also be applied to the evaluation of NV vaccine cost-effectiveness in other countries. In resource-poor settings, where NV incidence rates are expected to be higher.

U.S. Civil Air Show Crashes, 1993 to 2013: Burden, Fatal Risk Factors, and Evaluation of a Risk Index for Aviation Crashes.

This study provides new public health data about U.S. civil air shows. Risk factors for fatalities in civil air show crashes were analyzed. The value of the FIA score in predicting fatal outcomes was evaluated. With the use of the FAA's General Aviation and Air Taxi Survey and the National Transportation Safety Board's data, the incidence of civil air show crashes from 1993 to 2013 was calculated. Fatality risk factors for crashes were analyzed by means of regression methods. The FIA index was validated to predict fatal outcomes by using the factors of fire, instrument conditions, and away-from-airport location, and was evaluated through receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves. The civil air show crash rate was 31 crashes per 1,000 civil air events. Of the 174 civil air show crashes that occurred during the study period, 91 (52%) involved at least one fatality; on average, 1.1 people died per fatal crash. Fatalities were associated with four major risk factors: fire [adjusted odds ratio (AOR) = 7.1, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 2.4 to 20.6, P < .001], pilot error (AOR = 5.2, 95% CI = 1.8 to 14.5, P = .002), aerobatic flight (AOR = 3.6, 95% CI = 1.6 to 8.2, P = .002), and off-airport location (AOR = 3.4, 95% CI = 1.5 to 7.5, P = .003). The area under the FIA score's ROC curve was 0.71 (95% CI = 0.64 to 0.78). Civil air show crashes were marked by a high risk of fatal outcomes to pilots in aerobatic performances but rare mass casualties. The FIA score was not a valid measurement of fatal risk in civil air show crashes.

The U.S. commercial air tour industry: a review of aviation safety concerns.

The U.S. Title 14 Code of Federal Regulations defines commercial air tours as "flight[s] conducted for compensation or hire in an airplane or helicopter where a purpose of the flight is sightseeing." The incidence of air tour crashes in the United States is disproportionately high relative to similar commercial aviation operations, and air tours operating under Part 91 governance crash significantly more than those governed by Part 135. This paper reviews the government and industry response to four specific areas of air tour safety concern: surveillance of flight operations, pilot factors, regulatory standardization, and maintenance quality assurance. It concludes that the government and industry have successfully addressed many of these tenet issues, most notably by: advancing the operations surveillance infrastructure through implementation of en route, ground-based, and technological surveillance methods; developing Aeronautical Decision Making and cue-based training programs for air tour pilots; consolidating federal air tour regulations under Part 136; and developing public-private partnerships for raising maintenance operating standards and improving quality assurance programs. However, opportunities remain to improve air tour safety by: increasing the number and efficiency of flight surveillance programs; addressing pilot fatigue with more restrictive flight hour limitations for air tour pilots; ensuring widespread uptake of maintenance quality assurance programs, especially among high-risk operators not currently affiliated with private air tour safety programs; and eliminating the 25-mile exception allowing Part 91 operators to conduct commercial air tours without the safety oversight required of Part 135 operators.

Hot-air balloon tours: crash epidemiology in the United States, 2000-2011.

INTRODUCTION: Hot-air balloon tours are FAR Part 91-governed balloon rides conducted for compensation or hire. Part 91, General Aviation, in general involves the least strict federal regulations and accounts for the majority of aviation crashes and fatalities. METHODS: National Transportation Safety Board reports of hot-air balloon tour crashes in the United States from 2000 through 2011 were read and analyzed. RESULTS: During the 12-yr period, 78 hot-air balloon tours crashed, involving 518 occupants. There were 91 serious injuries and 5 fatalities; 83% of crashes resulted in one or more serious or fatal outcomes. Of the serious injuries characterized, 56% were lower extremity fractures. Most crashes (81%) occurred during landing; 65% involved hard landings. Fixed object collisions contributed to 50% of serious injuries and all 5 fatalities. During landing sequences, gondola dragging, tipping, bouncing, and occupant ejection were associated with poor outcomes. Of the crashes resulting in serious or fatal outcomes, 20% of balloons were significantly damaged or destroyed. DISCUSSION: The incidence of morbidity and mortality is high among hot-air balloon tour crashes, and the proportion of balloon crashes attributed to paid rides appears to have increased over time. In addition to examining the role of restraint systems, personal protective equipment, and power line emergency procedures in ballooning, injury prevention efforts should target factors such hard landings, object strikes, gondola instability, and occupant ejections, which are associated with balloon injuries and deaths. Crash outcomes may also improve with vehicle engineering that enables balloons themselves to absorb impact forces.

US commercial air tour crashes, 2000-2011: burden, fatal risk factors, and FIA Score validation.

INTRODUCTION: This study provides new public health data concerning the US commercial air tour industry. Risk factors for fatality in air tour crashes were analyzed to determine the value of the FIA Score in predicting fatal outcomes. METHODS: Using the Federal Aviation Administration's (FAA) General Aviation and Air Taxi Survey and National Transportation Safety Board data, the incidence of commercial air tour crashes from 2000 through 2010 was calculated. Fatality risk factors for crashes occurring from 2000 through 2011 were analyzed using regression methods. The FIA Score, Li and Baker's fatality risk index, was validated using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves. RESULTS: The industry-wide commercial air tour crash rate was 2.7 per 100,000 flight hours. The incidence rates of Part 91 and 135 commercial air tour crashes were 3.4 and 2.3 per 100,000 flight hours, respectively (relative risk [RR] 1.5, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.1-2.1, P=0.015). Of the 152 air tour crashes that occurred from 2000 through 2011, 30 (20%) involved at least one fatality and, on average, 3.5 people died per fatal crash. Fatalities were associated with three major risk factors: fire (adjusted odds ratio [AOR] 5.1, 95% CI 1.5-16.7, P=0.008), instrument meteorological conditions (AOR 5.4, 95% CI 1.1-26.4, P=0.038), and off-airport location (AOR 7.2, 95% CI 1.6-33.2, P=0.011). The area under the FIA Score's ROC curve was 0.79 (95% CI 0.71-0.88). DISCUSSION: Commercial air tour crash rates were high relative to similar commercial aviation operations. Disparities between Part 91 and 135 air tour crash rates reflect regulatory disparities that require FAA action. The FIA Score appeared to be a valid measurement of fatal risk in air tour crashes. The FIA should prioritize interventions that address the three major risk factors identified by this study.