Assessing a model of Pacific Northwest harmful algal bloom transport as a decision-support tool.

In the Pacific Northwest, blooms of the diatom Pseudo-nitzschia (PN) sometimes produce domoic acid, a neurotoxin that causes amnesic shellfish poisoning, leading to a Harmful Algal Bloom (HAB) event. The Pacific Northwest (PNW) HAB Bulletin project, a partnership between academic, government, and tribal stakeholders, uses a combination of beach and offshore monitoring data and ocean forecast modeling to better understand the formation, evolution, and transport of HABs in this region. This project produces periodic Bulletins to inform local stakeholders of current and forecasted conditions. The goal of this study was to help improve how the forecast model is used in the Bulletin's preparation through a retrospective particle-tracking experiment. Using past observations of beach PN cell counts, events were identified that likely originated in the Juan de Fuca eddy, a known PN hotspot, and then particle tracks were used in the model to simulate these events. A variety of "beaching definitions" were tested, based on both water depth and distance offshore, to define when a particle in the model was close enough to the coast that it was likely to correspond to cells appearing in the intertidal zone and in shellfish diets, as well as a variety of observed PN cell thresholds to determine what cell count should be used to describe an event that would warrant further action. The skill of these criteria was assessed by determining the fraction of true positives, true negatives, false positives, and false negatives within the model in comparison with observations, as well as a variety of derived model performance metrics. This analysis suggested that for our stakeholders' purposes, the most useful beaching definition is the 30 m isobath and the most useful PN cell threshold for coincident field-based sample PN density estimates is 10,000 PN cells/L. Lastly, the performance of a medium-resolution (1.5 km horizontal resolution) version of the model was compared with that of a high-resolution (0.5 km horizontal resolution) version, the latter currently used in forecasting for the PNW HAB Bulletin project. This analysis includes a direct comparison of the two model resolutions for one overlapping year (2017). These results suggested that a narrower, more realistic beaching definition is most useful in a high-resolution model, while a wider beaching definition is more appropriate in a lower resolution model like the medium-resolution version used in this analysis. Overall, this analysis demonstrated the importance of incorporating stakeholder needs into the statistical approach in order to generate the most effective decision-support information from oceanographic modeling.

Can a key boreal Calanus copepod species now complete its life-cycle in the Arctic? Evidence and implications for Arctic food-webs.

The changing Arctic environment is affecting zooplankton that support its abundant wildlife. We examined how these changes are influencing a key zooplankton species, Calanus finmarchicus, principally found in the North Atlantic but expatriated to the Arctic. Close to the ice-edge in the Fram Strait, we identified areas that, since the 1980s, are increasingly favourable to C. finmarchicus. Field-sampling revealed part of the population there to be capable of amassing enough reserves to overwinter. Early developmental stages were also present in early summer, suggesting successful local recruitment. This extension to suitable C. finmarchicus habitat is most likely facilitated by the long-term retreat of the ice-edge, allowing phytoplankton to bloom earlier and for longer and through higher temperatures increasing copepod developmental rates. The increased capacity for this species to complete its life-cycle and prosper in the Fram Strait can change community structure, with large consequences to regional food-webs.

A marine zooplankton community vertically structured by light across diel to interannual timescales.

The predation risk of many aquatic taxa is dominated by visually searching predators, commonly a function of ambient light. Several studies propose that changes in visual predation will become a major climate-change impact on polar marine ecosystems. The High Arctic experiences extreme seasonality in the light environment, from 24 h light to 24 h darkness, and therefore provides a natural laboratory for studying light and predation risk over diel to seasonal timescales. Here, we show that zooplankton (observed using acoustics) in an Arctic fjord position themselves vertically in relation to light. A single isolume (depth-varying line of constant light intensity, the value of which is set at the lower limit of photobehaviour reponses of Calanus spp. and krill) forms a ceiling on zooplankton distribution. The vertical distribution is structured by light across timescales, from the deepening of zooplankton populations at midday as the sun rises in spring, to the depth to which zooplankton ascend to feed during diel vertical migration. These results suggest that zooplankton might already follow a foraging strategy that will keep visual predation risk roughly constant under changing light conditions, such as those caused by the reduction of sea ice, but likely with energetic costs such as lost feeding opportunities as a result of altered habitat use.

Sea ice decline drives biogeographical shifts of key Calanus species in the central Arctic Ocean.

In recent decades, the central Arctic Ocean has been experiencing dramatic decline in sea ice coverage, thickness and extent, which is expected to have a tremendous impact on all levels of Arctic marine life. Here, we analyze the regional and temporal changes in pan-Arctic distribution and population structure of the key zooplankton species Calanus glacialis and C. hyperboreus in relation to recent changes in ice conditions, based on historical (1993-1998) and recent (2007-2016) zooplankton collections and satellite-based sea ice observations. We found strong correlations between Calanus abundance/population structure and a number of sea ice parameters. These relationships were particularly strong for C. glacialis, with higher numbers being observed at locations with a lower ice concentration, a shorter distance to the ice edge, and more days of open water. Interestingly, early stages of C. hyperboreus followed the same trends, suggesting that these two species substantially overlap in their core distribution area in the Arctic Ocean. Calanus glacialis and C. hyperboreus have been historically classified as shelf versus basin species, yet we conclude that both species can inhabit a wide range of bottom depths and their distribution in the Arctic Ocean is largely shaped by sea ice dynamics. Our data suggest that the core distribution patterns of these key zooplankton are shifting northwards with retreating sea ice and changing climate conditions.

The Effect of Alongcoast Advection on Pacific Northwest Shelf and Slope Water Properties in Relation to Upwelling Variability.

The Northern California Current System experiences highly variable seasonal upwelling in addition to larger basin-scale variability, both of which can significantly affect its water chemistry. Salinity and temperature fields from a 7 year ROMS hindcast model of this region (43°N-50°N), along with extensive particle tracking, were used to study interannual variability in water properties over both the upper slope and the midshelf bottom. Variation in slope water properties was an order of magnitude smaller than on the shelf. Furthermore, the primary relationship between temperature and salinity anomalies in midshelf bottom water consisted of variation in density (cold/salty versus warm/fresh), nearly orthogonal to the anomalies along density levels (cold/fresh versus warm/salty) observed on the upper slope. These midshelf anomalies were well-explained (R2 = 0.6) by the combination of interannual variability in local and remote alongshore wind stress, and depth of the California Undercurrent (CUC) core. Lagrangian analysis of upper slope and midshelf bottom water shows that both are affected simultaneously by large-scale alongcoast advection of water through the northern and southern boundaries. The amplitude of anomalies in bottom oxygen and dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) on the shelf associated with upwelling variability are larger than those associated with typical variation in alongcoast advection, and are comparable to observed anomalies in this region. However, a large northern intrusion event in 2004 illustrates that particular, large-scale alongcoast advection anomalies can be just as effective as upwelling variability in changing shelf water properties on the interannual scale.

Projected impacts of 21st century climate change on diapause in Calanus finmarchicus.

Diapause plays a key role in the life cycle of high latitude zooplankton. During diapause, animals avoid starving in winter by living in deep waters where metabolism is lower and met by lipid reserves. Global warming is therefore expected to shorten the maximum potential diapause duration by increasing metabolic rates and by reducing body size and lipid reserves. This will alter the phenology of zooplankton, impact higher trophic levels and disrupt biological carbon pumps. Here, we project the impacts of climate change on the key North Atlantic copepod Calanus finmarchicus under IPCC RCP 8.5. Potential diapause duration is modelled in relation to body size and overwintering temperature. The projections show pronounced geographic variations. Potential diapause duration reduces by more than 30% in the Western Atlantic, whereas in the key overwintering centre of the Norwegian Sea it changes only marginally. Surface temperature rises, which reduce body size and lipid reserves, will have a similar impact to deep-water changes on diapause in many regions. Because deep-water warming lags that at the surface, animals in the Labrador Sea could offset warming impacts by diapausing in deeper waters. However, the ability to control diapause depth may be limited.

Present-day and future climate pathways affecting Alexandrium blooms in Puget Sound, WA, USA.

This study uses a mechanistic modeling approach to evaluate the effects of various climate pathways on the proliferative phase of the toxin-producing dinoflagellate Alexandrium in Puget Sound, WA, USA. Experimentally derived Alexandrium growth responses to temperature and salinity are combined with simulations of the regional climate and Salish Sea hydrology to investigate future changes in the timing, duration, and extent of blooms. Coarse-grid (100-200km) global climate model ensemble simulations of the SRES A1B emissions scenario were regionally downscaled to a 12-km grid using the Weather Research and Forecasting model for the period 1969-2069. These results were used to: (1) analyze the future potential changes and variability of coastal upwelling winds, and (2) provide forcing fields to a Regional Ocean Model System used to simulate the circulation of the Salish Sea, including Puget Sound, and the coastal ocean. By comparing circa-1990 and circa-2050 climate scenarios for the environmental conditions that promote Alexandrium blooms, we disentangle the effects of three climate pathways: (1) increased local atmospheric heating, (2) changing riverflow magnitude and timing, and (3) changing ocean inputs associated with changes in upwelling-favorable winds. Future warmer sea surface temperatures in Puget Sound from increased local atmospheric heating increase the maximum growth rates that can be attained by Alexandrium during the bloom season as well as the number of days with conditions that are favorable for bloom development. This could lead to 30 more days a year with bloom-favorable conditions by 2050. In contrast, changes in surface salinity arising from changes in the timing of riverflow have a negligible effect on Alexandrium growth rates, and the behavior of the coastal inputs in the simulations suggests that changes in local upwelling will not have major effects on sea surface temperature or salinity or Alexandrium growth rates in Puget Sound.