Prediction of damage trajectories in systemic sclerosis using group-based trajectory modelling.

OBJECTIVES: Damage accrual in SSc can be tracked using the Scleroderma Clinical Trials Consortium Damage Index (DI). Our goal was to develop a prediction model for damage accrual in SSc patients with early disease. METHODS: Using patients with <2 years disease duration from Canada and Australia as a derivation cohort, and from the Netherlands as a validation cohort, we used group-based trajectory modelling (GBTM) to determine 'good' and 'bad' latent damage trajectories. We developed a prediction model from this analysis and applied it to patients from derivation and validation cohorts. We plotted the actual DI trajectories of the patients predicted to be in 'good' or 'bad' groups. RESULTS: We found that the actual trajectories of damage accumulation for lcSSc and dcSSc were very different, so we studied each subset separately. GBTM found two distinct trajectories in lcSSc and three in dcSSc. We collapsed the two worse trajectories in the dcSSc into one group and developed a prediction model for inclusion in either 'good' or 'bad' trajectories. The performance of models using only baseline DI and sex was excellent with ROC AUC of 0.9313 for lcSSc and 0.9027 for dcSSc. Using this model, we determined whether patients would fall into 'good' or 'bad' trajectory groups and then plotted their actual trajectories which showed clear differences between the predicted 'good' and 'bad' cases in both derivation and validation cohorts. CONCLUSIONS: A simple model using only cutaneous subset, baseline DI and sex can predict damage accumulation in early SSc.

Damage Trajectories in Systemic Sclerosis Using Group-Based Trajectory Modeling.

OBJECTIVE: Systemic sclerosis (SSc) is an autoimmune disease characterized by progressive organ damage, which can be measured using the Scleroderma Clinical Trials Consortium Damage Index (SCTC-DI). We aimed to identify whether distinct trajectories of damage accrual exist and to determine which variables are associated with different trajectory groups. METHODS: Incident cases of SSc (<2 years) were identified in the Australian Scleroderma Interest Group and Canadian Scleroderma Research Group prospective registries. Group-based trajectory modeling was used to identify SCTC-DI trajectories over the cohort's first 5 annual visits. Baseline variables associated with trajectory membership in a univariate analysis were examined in multivariable models. RESULTS: A total of 410 patients were included. Three trajectory groups were identified: low (54.6%), medium (36.2%), and high (10.3%) damage. Patients with faster damage accrual had higher baseline SCTC-DI scores. Older age (odds ratio [OR] 1.57 [95% confidence interval (95% CI) 1.18-2.10]), male sex (OR 2.55 [95% CI 1.10-5.88]), diffuse disease (OR 6.7 [95% CI 2.57-17.48]), tendon friction rubs (OR 5.4 [95% CI 1.86-15.66]), and elevated C-reactive protein level (OR 1.98 [95% CI 1.49-2.63]) increased the odds of being in the high-damage group versus the reference (low damage), whereas White ethnicity (OR 0.31 [95% CI 0.12-0.75]) and anticentromere antibodies (OR 0.24 [95% CI 0.07-0.77]) decreased the odds. CONCLUSION: We identified 3 trajectories of damage accrual in a combined incident SSc cohort. Several characteristics increased the odds of belonging to worse trajectories. These findings may be helpful in recognizing patients in whom early aggressive treatment is necessary.

Clinical Significance of Raynaud Phenomenon in Systemic Lupus Erythematosus.

OBJECTIVE: There are limited reports of the clinical significance of Raynaud phenomenon (RP) in systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE), with some suggesting RP is associated with less severe lupus. Since most prior studies were small and/or focused on a specific race/ethnic demographic, it is unclear if those results are generalizable. We evaluated whether RP was associated with demographic and clinical factors in a large multiethnic SLE cohort. METHODS: We studied Montreal General Hospital SLE cohort patients who are followed with standardized annual assessments. We included patients with at least 1 visit across 2011-2018 and assessed demographic and clinical variables (using the 1997 American College of Rheumatology criteria and the Systemic Lupus International Collaborating Clinics/American College of Rheumatology Damage Index) at their first visit. We present multivariate logistics regression analyses of cross-sectional associations between these variables and RP in SLE. RESULTS: Of 489 SLE patients, most were female (n = 445, 91%). Mean age at SLE diagnosis was 31.5 (standard deviation, 13.5) years, and 169 (34.6%) had RP. In our fully adjusted model, female sex (odds ratio [OR], 2.43; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.07-6.03), White race/ethnicity (OR, 1.85; 95% CI, 1.10-3.17), neurological/neuropsychiatric manifestations (OR, 1.98; 95% CI, 1.10-3.56), and anti-RNP antibodies (OR, 3.03; 95% CI, 1.73-5.38) were positively associated with RP, whereas hemolytic anemia and cellular casts were negatively associated. CONCLUSIONS/DISCUSSION: Over one third of our large multiethnic North American SLE cohort had RP. This study confirmed associations between RP and a specific SLE phenotype.

Fatigue Measurements in Systemic Lupus Erythematosus.

OBJECTIVE: Fatigue is a frequent, disabling issue in systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE). It is, however, difficult to quantify. The Ad Hoc Committee on SLE Response Criteria for Fatigue in 2007 recommended using the Krupp Fatigue Severity Scale (FSS). Since then, the Functional Assessment of Chronic Illness Therapy (FACIT)-Fatigue Scale has also been validated in SLE. We performed a review of instruments used to measure fatigue in adult SLE patients from 2007 onward. METHODS: We searched PubMed, Medline, and Embase (January 2008-October 2017), identifying clinical trials and observational studies in adult SLE, where fatigue was a specifically measured outcome. All English and French studies were reviewed to determine fatigue measures and results. RESULTS: Thirty-seven studies met inclusion criteria. Eight scales were used. The visual analog scale (VAS), FSS, and FACIT-Fatigue Scale were most frequent. FSS was the most often used instrument in both clinical trials and observational studies. Twenty-five of the 37 studies demonstrated a difference in fatigue that was statistically significant and clinically meaningful. Of the 12 studies that did not, 6 used FSS, 3 used VAS, 2 used the Multidimensional Assessment of Fatigue, and 1 used the Brief Fatigue Index. All 6 studies using the FACIT-Fatigue Scale detected clinically meaningful and statistically significant differences. CONCLUSION: VAS, FSS, and FACIT-Fatigue Scale were the most frequently used instruments in adult SLE studies from 2008 to 2017. Many studies detected clinically important changes in fatigue. Fatigue remains a key measure in both clinical trials and observational SLE studies.

A case of severe Pembrolizumab-induced neutropenia.

Immune checkpoint inhibitors have revolutionized cancer therapy. Given their mechanism of action, immune-related adverse events have been associated with their use. We present the first documented case of pembrolizumab-induced grade IV neutropenia. A 73-year-old women known for myositis, Crohn's disease, and hypothyroidism and diagnosed with PD-L1 positive stage IV pulmonary adenocarcinoma is treated with Pembrolizumab. She develops grade IV neutropenia 2 weeks after her second infusion. She is therefore hospitalized and treated initially with corticosteroids, granulocyte colony-stimulating factor, and intravenous immunoglobulins. Given the persistent neutropenia, cyclosporine was added, but quickly stopped owing to fever. The patient recovered her neutrophils 6.5 weeks after her initial Pembrolizumab infusion and 12 days after admission. She has been subsequently successfully tapered off steroids with no recurrence after 3 months of follow-up. This is the first case of grade IV neutropenia secondary to Pembrolizumab. This case is of particular interest given the patient's pre-existing autoimmune history. Treatment of severe neutropenia due to other PD1 inhibitors has generally consisted of steroids, granulocyte colony-stimulating factor, intravenous immunoglobulins, mycophenolate mofetil, cyclosporine A, and anti-thymocyte globulins - though the benefits of immunosuppression are not clear and may be harmful given the infectious risks. Large studies are required to clarify the spectrum and optimal management of immune-related adverse events and overall risk/benefits of immune checkpoint inhibitors in patients with pre-existing autoimmunity.