Evaluating the impact on physical inactivity of Together an Active Future, a partnership approach to physical activity promotion. A difference-in-differences study.

BACKGROUND: Low physical activity is one of the leading causes of ill health in the UK and an important determinant of health inequalities. Little is known about the effectiveness of community-wide interventions to increase physical activity and whether effects differ by demographic groups, including area deprivation and ethnicity. SETTING: 6 relatively disadvantaged local authority areas in Lancashire, UK, between 2016 and 2021. METHODS: We conducted a doubly robust difference-in-differences study using a large nationally representative repeated cross-sectional survey to investigate the impact of Together an Active Future (TAAF), an intervention aiming to reduce physical inactivity through a programme of creative engagement, partnership building, training and communication. The primary outcome was physical inactivity (the percentage of the population engaging in less than 30 min physical activity of at least moderate intensity per week). RESULTS: While inactivity increased during the pandemic, it increased to a lesser extent in the intervention population. TAAF was associated with 2.63 percentage point lower level of physical inactivity (95% CI 0.80 to 4.45) in the intervention group relative to the control group. Subgroup analysis found no evidence of differences in effect between groups defined by deprivation, ethnicity, disability, gender or age. CONCLUSIONS: The study suggests that a programme of creative engagement, partnership building, training and communication can help reduce physical inactivity, potentially mitigating some of the effect of pandemic restrictions. Further monitoring is required to understand the impact of this intervention outside of the pandemic context.

Investigating the impact of undiagnosed anxiety and depression on health and social care costs and quality of life: cross-sectional study using household health survey data.

BACKGROUND: There is uncertainty around the costs and health impacts of undiagnosed mental health problems. AIMS: Using survey data, we aim to understand the costs and health-related quality-of-life decrements from undiagnosed anxiety/depression. METHOD: We analysed survey data from two waves of the North West Coast Household Health Survey, which included questions on disease, medications, and Patient Health Questionnaire 9 (PHQ-9) and Generalised Anxiety Disorder 7 (GAD-7) scores (depression and anxiety scales). People were judged as having undiagnosed anxiety/depression problems if they scored ≥5 on the PHQ-9 or GAD-7, and did not declare a mental health issue or antidepressant prescription. Linear regression for EuroQol 5-Dimension 3-Level (EQ-5D-3L) index scores, and Tweedie regression for health and social care costs, were used to estimate the impact of undiagnosed mental health problems, controlling for age, gender, deprivation and other health conditions. RESULTS: Around 26.5% of participants had undiagnosed anxiety/depression. The presence of undiagnosed anxiety/depression was associated with reduced EQ-5D-3L index scores (0.040 lower on average) and increased costs (£250 ($310) per year on average). Using a higher cut-off score of 10 on the PHQ-9 and GAD-7 for undiagnosed anxiety/depression had similar increased costs but a greater reduction in EQ-5D-3L index scores (0.076 on average), indicating a larger impact on health-related quality of life. CONCLUSIONS: Having undiagnosed anxiety or depression increases costs and reduces health-related quality of life. Reducing stigma and increasing access to cost-effective treatments will have population health benefits.

Natural experiments for the evaluation of place-based public health interventions: a methodology scoping review.

Introduction: Place-based public health evaluations are increasingly making use of natural experiments. This scoping review aimed to provide an overview of the design and use of natural experiment evaluations (NEEs), and an assessment of the plausibility of the as-if randomization assumption. Methods: A systematic search of three bibliographic databases (Pubmed, Web of Science and Ovid-Medline) was conducted in January 2020 to capture publications that reported a natural experiment of a place-based public health intervention or outcome. For each, study design elements were extracted. An additional evaluation of as-if randomization was conducted by 12 of this paper's authors who evaluated the same set of 20 randomly selected studies and assessed 'as-if ' randomization for each. Results: 366 NEE studies of place-based public health interventions were identified. The most commonly used NEE approach was a Difference-in-Differences study design (25%), followed by before-after studies (23%) and regression analysis studies. 42% of NEEs had likely or probable as-if randomization of exposure (the intervention), while for 25% this was implausible. An inter-rater agreement exercise indicated poor reliability of as-if randomization assignment. Only about half of NEEs reported some form of sensitivity or falsification analysis to support inferences. Conclusion: NEEs are conducted using many different designs and statistical methods and encompass various definitions of a natural experiment, while it is questionable whether all evaluations reported as natural experiments should be considered as such. The likelihood of as-if randomization should be specifically reported, and primary analyses should be supported by sensitivity analyses and/or falsification tests. Transparent reporting of NEE designs and evaluation methods will contribute to the optimum use of place-based NEEs.

Socioeconomic differences in recruitment and sickness absence in a large NHS health organisation: a cross-sectional study.

OBJECTIVE: This study investigates the distribution of the workforce of one large National Health Service (NHS) employer in relation to socioeconomic deprivation and how sickness absence rates varied across these levels of deprivation. DESIGN: Share of the working age population that was employed at the NHS organisation mapped by area deprivation. The study used negative binomial regression models to investigate the extent to which wage level, occupational group and area deprivation were associated with sickness absence among employees. SETTING: The study used electronic staff records (2018-2019) of a large NHS organisation in the North West of England. RESULTS: In the most deprived areas, an additional person per 1000 working age population were employed at this NHS organisation compared with the most affluent areas. Employees from the most deprived quintile had 1.41 (95% CI 1.16 to 1.70) times the higher sickness rates than the employees from the least deprived quintile, when adjusting for age and sex. These differences were largely explained by differences in wage levels and occupation groups, with the lowest wage employees having 2.5 (95% CI 1.87 to 3.42) times the sickness absence rate as the highest wage group and the nursing and midwifery employees having 1.8 (95% CI 1.50 to 2.24) times the sickness absence rate as the administrative and clerical group. CONCLUSION: This large NHS organisation employed people disproportionately from deprived areas. They were considerably more likely to experience sickness absence compared with people from affluent areas. This appears to be because they were more likely to be in lower wage employment and employed in nursing and nursing assistant. Workplace health policies need to target these workers, adapting to their needs while enabling improvements in their working conditions, pay and career progression.

Evaluation of the mental health impacts of Universal Credit: protocol for a mixed methods study.

INTRODUCTION: The UK social security system is being transformed by the implementation of Universal Credit (UC), which combines six existing benefits and tax credits into a single payment for low-income households. Despite extensive reports of hardship associated with the introduction of UC, no previous studies have comprehensively evaluated its impact on mental health. Because payments are targeted at low-income households, impacts on mental health will have important consequences for health inequalities. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: We will conduct a mixed methods study. Work package (WP) 1 will compare health outcomes for new recipients of UC with outcomes for legacy benefit recipients in two large population surveys, using the phased rollout of UC as a natural experiment. We will also analyse the relationship between the proportion of UC claimants in small areas and a composite measure of mental health. WP2 will use data collected by Citizen's Advice to explore the sociodemographic and health characteristics of people who seek advice when claiming UC and identify features of the claim process that prompt advice-seeking. WP3 will conduct longitudinal in-depth interviews with up to 80 UC claimants in England and Scotland to explore reasons for claiming and experiences of the claim process. Up to 30 staff supporting claimants will also be interviewed. WP4 will use a dynamic microsimulation model to simulate the long-term health impacts of different implementation scenarios. WP5 will undertake cost-consequence analysis of the potential costs and outcomes of introducing UC and cost-benefit analyses of mitigating actions. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: We obtained ethical approval for the primary data gathering from the University of Glasgow, College of Social Sciences Research Ethics Committee, application number 400200244. We will use our networks to actively disseminate findings to UC claimants, the public, practitioners and policy-makers, using a range of methods and formats. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: The study is registered with the Research Registry: researchregistry6697.

The impact of an integrated care intervention on mortality and unplanned hospital admissions in a disadvantaged community in England: A difference-in-differences study.

BACKGROUND: Many health systems are experimenting with integrated care models to improve outcomes and reduce healthcare demand. Evidence for effects on health service utilisation is variable, with few studies investigating impacts on mortality or differences by socioeconomic group. OBJECTIVE: To examine the impact of a multidisciplinary, integrated care team intervention on emergency admissions and mortality, and whether effects differed by deprivation group. DESIGN: A longitudinal matched controlled study using difference-in-differences analysis comparing the change in unplanned emergency admissions twelve months before and after the intervention, and inverse probability of treatment-weighted survival analysis comparing mortality, between intervention and matched control groups. SETTING: A relatively deprived city in England, U.K. INTERVENTION: A case-management integrated care programme delivered through multidisciplinary teams and aimed at complex needs and/or high hospitalisation risk patients. RESULTS: The intervention was associated with a small increase in emergency admissions of 15 per 1,000 patients per month (95% CI 5 to 24, p = 0.003) after the intervention relative to the control group and no significant change in survival between intervention and control groups (HR 0.9, 95% CI 0.84 to 1.13, p = 0.7). Effects were similar across age and deprivation groups. CONCLUSIONS: It is unlikely that similar interventions lead to reduced emergency admissions or increased survival. Further studies should use experimental methods and assess impacts on quality of life.

Impact of local air quality management policies on emergency hospitalisations for respiratory conditions in the North West Coast region of England: a longitudinal controlled ecological study.

BACKGROUND: Air quality is monitored at a local level in the UK as part of the Local Air Quality Management (LAQM) system. If air quality objectives within an area are not achieved an Air Quality Management Area (AQMA) is declared and action plan developed. The efficacy of this system in reducing air pollution has increasingly come into question, however very little is known about its impact on health or health inequalities. We therefore investigated the effect of declaring an AQMA on emergency hospitalisations for respiratory conditions in the North West Coast region of England, and examined whether the effect differed between more compared to less deprived neighbourhoods. METHODS: This longitudinal controlled ecological study analysed neighbourhoods located within or touching the boundaries of AQMAs declared in the North West Coast region between 2006 and 2016. Each of these intervention neighbourhoods were matched with five control neighbourhoods which had never been located within/touching an AQMA boundary. Difference-in-differences methods were used to compare the change in hospitalisation rates in the intervention neighbourhoods to the change in hospitalisation rates in the matched control neighbourhoods, before and after the declaration of an AQMA. RESULTS: In total, 108 intervention neighbourhoods and 540 control neighbourhoods were analysed over the period 2005-2017, giving a total sample size of 8424 neighbourhood-years. Emergency hospitalisations for respiratory conditions decreased in the intervention neighbourhoods by 158 per 100,000 per year [95% CI 90 to 227] after an AQMA was declared relative to the control neighbourhoods. There was a larger decrease in hospitalisation rates following the declaration of an AQMA in more compared to less income deprived neighbourhoods. CONCLUSIONS: Our results suggest the LAQM system has contributed to a reduction in emergency hospitalisations for respiratory conditions, and may represent an effective strategy to reduce inequalities in health. These findings highlight the importance of measuring the success of air quality policies not just in terms of air pollution but also in terms of population health.

A new species of Oligosoma (Squamata: Scincidae) from the northern North Island, New Zealand.

New Zealand is home to a diverse cool temperate assemblage of skinks, with 60+ identified taxa (genus Oligosoma Girard), of which only 50 have been formally described. Here we describe a new species (Oligosoma kakerakau sp. nov.) from Bream Head Scenic Reserve, near Whangrei Heads, Northland. This species is considered to be conspecific with a single specimen (Oligosoma Whirinaki) previously reported (in 2003) from Whirinaki Te Pua-a-Tne Conservation Park ~370 km further south. Oligosoma kakerakau sp. nov. can be distinguished from all other members of the genus by a combination of a distinctive teardrop marking below the eye, a distinctive mid-lateral stripe, and the colouration and pattern on its ventral surface. Our phylogenetic analyses indicate that Oligosoma kakerakau sp. nov. is most closely related to O. zelandicum (Gray), and more distantly to O. striatum (Buller) and O. homalonotum (Boulenger). Sea level changes during the Pliocene, such as the formation of the Manawat Strait, may have contributed to the divergence between Oligosoma kakerakau sp. nov. and O. zelandicum. We discuss the distribution, ecology and conservation of Oligosoma kakerakau sp. nov., and outline future research and conservation priorities for the species.

Local government funding and life expectancy in England: a longitudinal ecological study.

BACKGROUND: Since 2010, large reductions in funding for local government services have been introduced in England. These reductions in funding have potentially led to reduced provision of health-promoting public services. We aimed to investigate whether areas that showed a greater decline in funding also had more adverse trends in life expectancy and premature mortality. METHODS: In this longitudinal ecological study, we linked annual data from the Ministry of Housing, Communities, and Local Government on local government revenue expenditure and financing to 147 upper-tier local authorities in England between 2013 and 2017 with data from Public Health England, on male and female life expectancy at birth, male and female life expectancy at age 65 years, and premature (younger than 75 years) all-cause mortality rate for male and female individuals. Local authorities were excluded if their populations were too small or if changes in boundaries meant consistent data were not available. Using multivariable fixed-effects panel regression models, and controlling for local socioeconomic conditions, we estimated whether changes in local funding from 2013 were associated with changes in life expectancy and premature mortality. We included a set of alternative model specifications to test the robustness of our findings. FINDINGS: Between 2013 and 2017, mean per-capita central funding to local governments decreased by 33% or £168 per person (range -£385 to £1). Each £100 reduction in annual per person funding was associated over the study period 2013-17 with an average decrease in life expectancy at birth of 1·3 months (95% CI 0·7-1·9) for male individuals and 1·2 months (0·7-1·7) for female individuals; for life expectancy at age 65 years, the results show a decrease of 0·8 months (0·3-1·3) for male individuals and 1·1 months (0·7-1·5) for female individuals. Funding reductions were greater in more deprived areas and these areas had the worst changes in life expectancy. We estimated that cuts in funding were associated with an increase in the gap in life expectancy between the most and least deprived quintiles by 3% for men and 4% for women. Overall reductions in funding during this period were associated with an additional 9600 deaths in people younger than 75 years in England (3800-15 400), an increase of 1·25%. INTERPRETATION: Our findings indicate that cuts in funding for local government might in part explain adverse trends in life expectancy. Given that more deprived areas showed greater reductions in funding, our analysis suggests that inequalities have widened. Since the pandemic, strategies to address these adverse trends in life expectancy and reduce health inequalities could prioritise reinvestment in funding for local government services, particularly within the most deprived areas of England. FUNDING: National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) School for Public Health Research, NIHR Applied Research Collaboration North East and North Cumbria, NIHR Applied Research Collaboration North West Coast and Medical Research Council.

How does vulnerability to COVID-19 vary between communities in England? Developing a Small Area Vulnerability Index (SAVI).

BACKGROUND: During the initial wave of the COVID-19 epidemic in England, several population characteristics were associated with increased risk of mortality-including, age, ethnicity, income deprivation, care home residence and housing conditions. In order to target control measures and plan for future waves of the epidemic, public health agencies need to understand how these vulnerabilities are distributed across and clustered within communities. METHODS: We performed a cross-sectional ecological analysis across 6789 small areas in England. We assessed the association between COVID-19 mortality in each area and five vulnerability measures relating to ethnicity, poverty, prevalence of long-term health conditions, living in care homes and living in overcrowded housing. Estimates from multivariable Poisson regression models were used to derive a Small Area Vulnerability Index. RESULTS: Four vulnerability measures were independently associated with age-adjusted COVID-19 mortality. Each SD increase in the proportion of the population (1) living in care homes, (2) admitted to hospital in the past 5 years for a long-term health condition, (3) from an ethnic minority background and (4) living in overcrowded housing was associated with a 28%, 19% 8% and 11% increase in age-adjusted COVID-19 mortality rate, respectively. CONCLUSION: Vulnerability to COVID-19 was noticeably higher in the North West, West Midlands and North East regions, with high levels of vulnerability clustered in some communities. Our analysis indicates the communities who will be most at risk from a second wave of the pandemic.

Neighbourhood unemployment and other socio-demographic predictors of emergency hospitalisation for infectious intestinal disease in England: A longitudinal ecological study.

BACKGROUND: Previous studies have observed that infectious intestinal disease (IID) related hospital admissions are higher in more deprived neighbourhoods. These studies have mainly focused on paediatric populations and are cross-sectional in nature. This study examines recent trends in emergency IID admission rates, and uses longitudinal methods to investigate the effects of unemployment (as a time varying measure of neighbourhood deprivation) and other socio-demographic characteristics on IID admissions for adults and children in England. METHODS: A longitudinal ecological analysis was performed using Hospital Episode Statistics on emergency hospitalisations for IID, collected over the time period 2012-17 across England. Analysis was conducted at the neighbourhood (Lower-layer Super Output Area) level for three age groups (0-14; 15-64; 65+ years). Mixed-effect Poisson regression models were used to assess the relationship between trends in neighbourhood unemployment and emergency IID admission rates, whilst controlling for measures of primary and secondary care access, underlying morbidity and the ethnic composition of each neighbourhood. RESULTS: From 2012-17, declining trends in emergency IID admission rates were observed for children and older adults overall, while rates increased for some sub-groups in the population. Each 1 percentage point increase in unemployment was associated with a 6.3, 2.4 and 4% increase in the rate of IID admissions per year for children [IRR=1.06, 95%CI 1.06-1.07], adults [IRR=1.02, 95%CI 1.02-1.03] and older adults [IRR=1.04, 95%CI 1.036-1.043], respectively. Increases in poor primary care access, the percentage of people from a Pakistani ethnic background, and the prevalence of long-term health problems, in a neighbourhood, were also associated with increases in IID admission rates. CONCLUSIONS: Increasing trends in neighbourhood deprivation, as measured by unemployment, were associated with increases in emergency IID admission rates for children and adults in England, despite controlling for measures of healthcare access, underlying morbidity and ethnicity. Research is needed to improve understanding of the mechanisms that explain these inequalities, so that effective policies can be developed to reduce the higher emergency IID admission rates experienced by more disadvantaged communities.

Impact of community-based chronic obstructive pulmonary disease service, a multidisciplinary intervention in an area of high deprivation: a longitudinal matched controlled study.

OBJECTIVE: To examine the effects of a consultant-led, community-based chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) service, based in a highly deprived area on emergency hospital admissions. DESIGN: A longitudinal matched controlled study using difference-in-differences analysis to compare the change in outcomes in the intervention population to a matched comparison population, 5 years before and after implementation. SETTING: A deprived district in the North West of England between 2005 and 2016. INTERVENTION: A community-based, consultant-led COPD service providing diagnostics, treatment and rehabilitation from 2011 to 2016. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Emergency hospital admissions, length of stay per emergency admission and emergency readmissions for COPD. RESULTS: The intervention was associated with 24 fewer emergency COPD admissions per 100 000 population per year (95% CI -10.6 to 58.8, p=0.17) in the postintervention period, relative to the control group. There were significantly fewer emergency admissions in populations with medium levels of deprivation (64 per 100 000 per year; 95% CI 1.8 to 126.9) and among men (60 per 100 000 per year; 95% CI 12.3 to 107.3). CONCLUSION: We found limited evidence that the service reduced emergency hospital admissions, after an initial decline the effect was not sustained. The service, however, may have been more effective in some subgroups.

What is the qualitative evidence concerning the risks, diagnosis, management and consequences of gastrointestinal infections in the community in the United Kingdom? A systematic review and meta-ethnography.

BACKGROUND: Gastrointestinal (GI) infections cause a significant public health burden worldwide and in the UK with evidence pointing to socio-economic inequalities, particularly among children. Qualitative studies can help us understand why inequalities occur and contribute to developing more effective interventions. This study had two aims: 1. Conduct a systematic review to determine the extent and nature of UK qualitative evidence on gastrointestinal infections; 2. Use meta-ethnography to examine the influences of the differing social contexts in which people live. METHODS: MEDLINE, Scopus, Web of science, CINAHL and JSTOR were searched for UK qualitative studies engaging with the risk, diagnosis, management or consequences of gastrointestinal infections from 1980 to July 2019. Five reviewers were involved in applying inclusion and exclusion criteria, extracting and synthesising data (PROSPERO CRD 42017055157). RESULTS: Searches identified 4080 studies, 18 met the inclusion criteria. The majority (n = 16) contained data relating to the risk of gastrointestinal infection and these made up the main synthesis. The tenets of meta-ethnography were used to glean new understandings of the role of social and environmental contexts in shaping the risk of gastrointestinal infection, specifically with respect to foodborne GI illness. Three main explanations concerning risk emerged from the data: explanations of risk in the community were underpinned by understandings of 'bugs', dirt and where food comes from; risks were negotiated in households alongside diverse processes of decision making around food; and resources available to households shaped food practices. CONCLUSION: This systematic review highlights the scarcity of UK qualitative evidence examining gastrointestinal infections. Apart from risk, questions around diagnosis, management and consequences of illness were largely untouched. No studies investigated patterning by socio-economic status. Nevertheless, the meta-ethnography yielded wider contextual theories and explanations as to why people might not follow food hygiene guidance, giving pointers to the types of qualitative enquiry needed to develop more effective interventions.

Open data on health-related neighbourhood features in Great Britain.

Our study details the creation of a series of national open source low-level geographical measures of accessibility to health-related features for Great Britain. We create 14 measures across three domains: retail environment (fast food outlets, gambling outlets, pubs/bars/nightclubs, off-licences, tobacconists), health services (General Practitioners, pharmacies, dentists, hospitals, leisure centres) and the physical environment (green space and air quality). Using the network analysis process of Routino, postcode accessibility (km) to each of these features were calculated for the whole of Great Britain. An average score for each domain was calculated and subsequently combined to form an overall Index highlighting 'Access to Healthy Assets and Hazards'. We find the most accessible healthy areas are concentrated in the periphery of the urban cores, whilst the least accessible healthy areas are located in the urban cores and the rural areas. The open data resource is important for researchers and policy makers alike with an interest in measuring the role of spatial features on health.

Poverty dynamics and health in late childhood in the UK: evidence from the Millennium Cohort Study.

OBJECTIVE: To assess the prevalence of different trajectories of exposure to child poverty and their association with three indicators of adolescent physical and mental health in UK children. METHODS: We analysed data on 10 652 children from a large, prospective, nationally representative sample in the UK Millennium Cohort Study. The outcomes were mental health, measured by the Strengths and Difficulties Questionnaire (SDQ), physical health, measured by obesity and any longstanding illness, at age 14. The exposure was relative poverty (<60% of median of equivalised household income), measured at 9 months, 3, 5, 7, 11 and 14 years. Poverty trajectories were characterised using latent class analysis. ORs and 95% CIs were estimated using multivariable logistic regression, adjusted for maternal education and ethnicity. RESULTS: Four poverty trajectories were identified: never in poverty (62.4%), poverty in early childhood (13.4%), poverty in late childhood (5.0%) and persistent poverty (19.4%). Compared with children who never experienced poverty, those in persistent poverty were at increased risk of mental health problems (SDQ score≥17 (adjusted OR (aOR): 3.17; 95% CI: 2.40 to 4.19)), obesity (aOR: 1.57; 95% CI: 1.20 to 2.04) and longstanding illness (aOR: 1.98; 95% CI: 1.55 to 2.52). Poverty in early childhood was related to higher risk of obesity than that in late childhood, while the opposite is observed for mental health problems and longstanding illness. CONCLUSIONS: Persistent poverty affects one in five children in the UK. Any exposure to poverty was associated with worse physical and mental health outcomes. Policies that reduce child poverty and its consequences are likely to improve health in adolescence.

Sociodemographic and clinical risk factors for paediatric typical haemolytic uraemic syndrome: retrospective cohort study.

OBJECTIVES: Haemolytic uraemic syndrome (HUS) following Shiga toxin-producing Escherichia coli (STEC) infection is the the most common cause of acute renal failure among children in the UK. This study explored differential progression from STEC to HUS by social, demographic and clinical risk factors. METHODS: We undertook a retrospective cohort study linking two datasets. We extracted data on paediatric STEC and HUS cases identified in the Public Health England National Enhanced Surveillance System for STEC and British Paediatric Surveillance Unit HUS surveillance from 1 October 2011 to 31 October 2014. Using logistic regression, we estimated the odds of HUS progression by risk factors. RESULTS: 1059 paediatric STEC cases were included in the study, of which 207 (19.55%, 95% CI 17% to 22%) developed HUS. In the fully adjusted model, the odds of progression to HUS were highest in those aged 1-4 years (OR 4.93, 95% CI 2.30 to 10.56, compared with 10-15 years), were infected with an Shiga toxin (stx) 2-only strain (OR 5.92, 95% CI 2.49 to 14.10), were prescribed antibiotics (OR 8.46, 95% CI 4.71 to 15.18) and had bloody diarrhoea (OR 3.56, 95% CI 2.04 to 6.24) or vomiting (OR 4.47, 95% CI 2.62 to 7.63), but there was no association with progression to HUS by socioeconomic circumstances or rurality. CONCLUSION: Combining data from an active clinical surveillance system for HUS with the national enhanced STEC surveillance system suggests that 20% of diagnosed paediatric STEC infections in England resulted in HUS. No relationship was found with socioeconomic status or rurality of cases, but differences were demonstrated by age, stx type and presenting symptoms.

Social patterning of telephone health-advice for diarrhoea and vomiting: analysis of 24 million telehealth calls in England.

OBJECTIVES: Gastrointestinal (GI) infections are common and most people do not see a physician. There is conflicting evidence of the impact of socioeconomic status (SES) on risk of GI infections. We assessed the relationship between SES and GI calls to two National Health Service (NHS) telephone advice services in England. METHODS: Over 24 million calls to NHS Direct (2010-13) and NHS 111 (2013-15) were extracted from Public Health England (PHE) syndromic surveillance systems. The relationship between SES and GI calls was assessed using generalised linear models (GLM). RESULTS: Adjusting for rurality and age-sex interactions, in NHS Direct, children in disadvantaged areas were at lower risk of GI calls; in NHS 111 there was a higher risk of GI calls in disadvantaged areas for all ages (0-4 years RR 1.27, 95% CI 1.25-1.29; 5-9 years RR 1.43, 95% CI 1.36-1.51; 10-14 years RR 1.36, 95% CI 1.26-1.41; 15-19 years RR 1.59, 95% CI 1.52-1.67; 20-59 years RR 1.50, 95% CI 1.47-1.53, 60 years and over RR 1.12, 95% CI 1.09-1.14). CONCLUSIONS: Disadvantaged areas had higher risk of GI calls in NHS 111. This may relate to differences in exposure or vulnerability to GI infections, or propensity to call about GI infections.

How well can poor child health and development be predicted by data collected in early childhood?

BACKGROUND: Identifying children at risk of poor developmental outcomes remains a challenge, but is important for better targeting children who may benefit from additional support. We explored whether data routinely collected in early life predict which children will have language disability, overweight/obesity or behavioural problems in later childhood. METHODS: We used data on 10 262 children from the UK Millennium Cohort Study (MCS) collected at 9 months, 3, and 11 years old. Outcomes assessed at age 11 years were language disability, overweight/obesity and socioemotional behavioural problems. We compared the discriminatory capacity of three models: (1) using data currently routinely collected around the time of birth; (2) Model 1 with additional data routinely collected at 3 years; (3) a statistically selected model developed using a larger set of early year's risk factors for later child health outcomes, available in the MCS-but not all routinely collected. RESULTS: At age 11, 6.7% of children had language disability, 26.9% overweight/obesity and 8.2% socioemotional behavioural problems. Model discrimination for language disability was moderate in all three models (area under the curve receiver-operator characteristic 0.71, 0.74 and 0.76, respectively). For overweight/obesity, it was poor in model 1 (0.66) and moderate for model 2 (0.73) and model 3 (0.73). Socioemotional behavioural problems were also identified with moderate discrimination in all models (0.71; 0.77; 0.79, respectively). CONCLUSION: Language disability, socioemotional behavioural problems and overweight/obesity in UK children aged 11 years are common and can be predicted with moderate discrimination using data routinely collected in the first 3 years of life.