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Environmental exposures and gene-exposure interactions are the major causes of some diseases. Early-life exposome studies are needed to elucidate the role of environmental exposures and their complex interactions with biological mechanisms involved in childhood health. This study aimed to determine the contribution of early-life exposome to DNA damage and the modifying effect of genetic polymorphisms involved in air pollutants metabolism, antioxidant defense, and DNA repair. We conducted a cohort study in 416 Colombian children under five years. Blood samples at baseline were collected to measure DNA damage by the Comet assay and to determine GSTT1, GSTM1, CYP1A1, H2AX, OGG1, and SOD2 genetic polymorphisms. The exposome was estimated using geographic information systems, remote sensing, LUR models, and questionnaires. The association exposome-DNA damage was estimated using the Elastic Net linear regression with log link. Our results suggest that exposure to PM2.5 one year before the blood draw (BBD) (0.83, 95 %CI: 0.76; 0.91), soft drinks consumption (0.94, 0.89; 0.98), and GSTM1 null genotype (0.05, 0.01; 0.36) diminished the DNA damage, whereas exposure to PM2.5 one-week BBD (1.18, 1.06; 1.32), NO2 lag-5 days BBD (1.27, 1.18; 1.36), in-house cockroaches (1.10, 1.00; 1.21) at the recruitment, crowding at home (1.34, 1.08; 1.67) at the recruitment, cereal consumption (1.11, 1.04; 1.19) and H2AX (AG/GG vs. AA) (1.44, 1.11; 1.88) increased the DNA damage. The interactions between H2AX (AG/GG vs. AA) genotypes with crowding and PM2.5 one week BBD, GSTM1 (null vs. present) with humidity at the first year of life, and OGG1 (SC/CC vs. SS) with walkability at the first year of life were significant. The early-life exposome contributes to elucidating the effect of environmental exposures on DNA damage in Colombian children under five years old. The exposome-DNA damage effect appears to be modulated by genetic variants in DNA repair and antioxidant defense enzymes.
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The year of 2023 was the warmest on record globally and the second warmest in Europe. Here we applied epidemiological models to temperature and mortality records in 823 contiguous regions from 35 countries to estimate sex- and age-specific heat-related mortality in Europe during 2023 and to quantify the mortality burden avoided by societal adaptation to rising temperatures since the year 2000. We estimated 47,690 (95% confidence interval 28,853 to 66,525) heat-related deaths in 2023, the second highest mortality burden during the study period 2015-2023, only surpassed by 2022. We also estimated that the heat-related mortality burden would have been +80.0% higher in absence of present-century adaptation, especially in the elderly (+100.7% in people aged 80+ years). Our results highlight the importance of historical and ongoing adaptations in saving lives during recent summers and the urgency for more effective strategies to further reduce the mortality burden of forthcoming hotter summers.
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BACKGROUND: Precision Health aims to revolutionize disease prevention by leveraging information across multiple omic datasets (multi-omics). However, existing methods generally do not consider personalized environmental risk factors (e.g., environmental pollutants). OBJECTIVE: To develop and apply a precision health framework which combines multiomic integration (including early, intermediate, and late integration, representing sequential stages at which omics layers are combined for modeling) with mediation approaches (including high-dimensional mediation to identify biomarkers, mediation with latent factors to identify pathways, and integrated/quasi-mediation to identify high-risk subpopulations) to identify novel biomarkers of prenatal mercury induced metabolic dysfunction-associated fatty liver disease (MAFLD), elucidate molecular pathways linking prenatal mercury with MAFLD in children, and identify high-risk children based on integrated exposure and multiomics data. METHODS: This prospective cohort study used data from 420 mother-child pairs from the Human Early Life Exposome (HELIX) project. Mercury concentrations were determined in maternal or cord blood from pregnancy. Cytokeratin 18 (CK-18; a MAFLD biomarker) and five omics layers (DNA Methylation, gene transcription, microRNA, proteins, and metabolites) were measured in blood in childhood (age 6-10 years). RESULTS: Each standard deviation increase in prenatal mercury was associated with a 0.11 [95% confidence interval: 0.02-0.21] standard deviation increase in CK-18. High dimensional mediation analysis identified 10 biomarkers linking prenatal mercury and CK-18, including six CpG sites and four transcripts. Mediation with latent factors identified molecular pathways linking mercury and MAFLD, including altered cytokine signaling and hepatic stellate cell activation. Integrated/quasi-mediation identified high risk subgroups of children based on unique combinations of exposure levels, omics profiles (driven by epigenetic markers), and MAFLD. CONCLUSIONS: Prenatal mercury exposure is associated with elevated liver enzymes in childhood, likely through alterations in DNA methylation and gene expression. Our analytic framework can be applied across many different fields and serve as a resource to help guide future precision health investigations.
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Importance: Prenatal exposure to ubiquitous endocrine-disrupting chemicals (EDCs) may increase the risk of metabolic syndrome (MetS) in children, but few studies have studied chemical mixtures or explored underlying protein and metabolic signatures. Objective: To investigate associations of prenatal exposure to EDC mixtures with MetS risk score in children and identify associated proteins and metabolites. Design, Setting, and Participants: This population-based, birth cohort study used data collected between April 1, 2003, and February 26, 2016, from the Human Early Life Exposome cohort based in France, Greece, Lithuania, Norway, Spain, and the UK. Eligible participants included mother-child pairs with measured prenatal EDC exposures and complete data on childhood MetS risk factors, proteins, and metabolites. Data were analyzed between October 2022 and July 2023. Exposures: Nine metals, 3 organochlorine pesticides, 5 polychlorinated biphenyls, 2 polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs), 5 perfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS), 10 phthalate metabolites, 3 phenols, 4 parabens, and 4 organophosphate pesticide metabolites measured in urine and blood samples collected during pregnancy. Main Outcomes and Measures: At 6 to 11 years of age, a composite MetS risk score was constructed using z scores of waist circumference, systolic and diastolic blood pressures, triglycerides, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, and insulin levels. Childhood levels of 44 urinary metabolites, 177 serum metabolites, and 35 plasma proteins were quantified using targeted methods. Associations were assessed using bayesian weighted quantile sum regressions applied to mixtures for each chemical group. Results: The study included 1134 mothers (mean [SD] age at birth, 30.7 [4.9] years) and their children (mean [SD] age, 7.8 [1.5] years; 617 male children [54.4%] and 517 female children [45.6%]; mean [SD] MetS risk score, -0.1 [2.3]). MetS score increased per 1-quartile increase of the mixture for metals (ß = 0.44; 95% credible interval [CrI], 0.30 to 0.59), organochlorine pesticides (ß = 0.22; 95% CrI, 0.15 to 0.29), PBDEs (ß = 0.17; 95% CrI, 0.06 to 0.27), and PFAS (ß = 0.19; 95% CrI, 0.14 to 0.24). High-molecular weight phthalate mixtures (ß = -0.07; 95% CrI, -0.10 to -0.04) and low-molecular weight phthalate mixtures (ß = -0.13; 95% CrI, -0.18 to -0.08) were associated with a decreased MetS score. Most EDC mixtures were associated with elevated proinflammatory proteins, amino acids, and altered glycerophospholipids, which in turn were associated with increased MetS score. Conclusions and Relevance: This cohort study suggests that prenatal exposure to EDC mixtures may be associated with adverse metabolic health in children. Given the pervasive nature of EDCs and the increase in MetS, these findings hold substantial public health implications.
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Disruptores Endócrinos , Síndrome Metabólica , Efeitos Tardios da Exposição Pré-Natal , Humanos , Feminino , Gravidez , Efeitos Tardios da Exposição Pré-Natal/induzido quimicamente , Efeitos Tardios da Exposição Pré-Natal/epidemiologia , Síndrome Metabólica/epidemiologia , Síndrome Metabólica/induzido quimicamente , Criança , Masculino , Disruptores Endócrinos/efeitos adversos , Disruptores Endócrinos/urina , Fatores de Risco , Poluentes Ambientais/urina , Poluentes Ambientais/sangue , Poluentes Ambientais/efeitos adversos , Adulto , Exposição Materna/efeitos adversos , Exposição Materna/estatística & dados numéricos , Estudos de Coortes , Coorte de NascimentoRESUMO
BACKGROUND: Early life environmental stressors play an important role in the development of multiple chronic disorders. Previous studies that used environmental risk scores (ERS) to assess the cumulative impact of environmental exposures on health are limited by the diversity of exposures included, especially for early life determinants. We used machine learning methods to build early life exposome risk scores for three health outcomes using environmental, molecular, and clinical data. METHODS: In this study, we analyzed data from 1622 mother-child pairs from the HELIX European birth cohorts, using over 300 environmental, 100 child peripheral, and 18 mother-child clinical markers to compute environmental-clinical risk scores (ECRS) for child behavioral difficulties, metabolic syndrome, and lung function. ECRS were computed using LASSO, Random Forest and XGBoost. XGBoost ECRS were selected to extract local feature contributions using Shapley values and derive feature importance and interactions. RESULTS: ECRS captured 13%, 50% and 4% of the variance in mental, cardiometabolic, and respiratory health, respectively. We observed no significant differences in predictive performances between the above-mentioned methods.The most important predictive features were maternal stress, noise, and lifestyle exposures for mental health; proteome (mainly IL1B) and metabolome features for cardiometabolic health; child BMI and urine metabolites for respiratory health. CONCLUSIONS: Besides their usefulness for epidemiological research, our risk scores show great potential to capture holistic individual level non-hereditary risk associations that can inform practitioners about actionable factors of high-risk children. As in the post-genetic era personalized prevention medicine will focus more and more on modifiable factors, we believe that such integrative approaches will be instrumental in shaping future healthcare paradigms.
Growing up in different environments can greatly affect children's health later in life. This research looked at how living in cities, being exposed to chemicals, and other experiences before birth and during childhood, work together to influence children's mental, cardiovascular and respiratory health. We used advanced computer programs to help us understand these effects and estimate health risk scores. These scores are simple numerical measures that help us quantify the likelihood of children developing health issues based on their environmental exposures. Using those scores, the study identified key factors impacting children's health, in particular psycho-social, perceived environmental and prenatal pollutant exposures for mental health. It also revealed complex patterns and interactions between environmental factors. The results highlighted the potential of such risk scores to support the identification of actionable factors in high-risk children, informing tailored prevention measures in healthcare.
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Exposição Ambiental , Adulto , Feminino , Humanos , Estudos de Coortes , Espanha/epidemiologia , Genética Humana , GravidezRESUMO
Exposome studies are advancing in high-income countries to understand how multiple environmental exposures impact health. However, there is a significant research gap in low- and middle-income and tropical countries. We aimed to describe the spatiotemporal variation of the external exposome, its correlation structure between and within exposure groups, and its dimensionality. A one-year follow-up cohort study of 506 children under 5 in two cities in Colombia was conducted to evaluate asthma, acute respiratory infections, and DNA damage. We examined 48 environmental exposures during pregnancy and 168 during childhood in eight exposure groups, including atmospheric pollutants, natural spaces, meteorology, built environment, traffic, indoor exposure, and socioeconomic capital. The exposome was estimated using geographic information systems, remote sensing, spatiotemporal modeling, and questionnaires. The median age of children at study entry was 3.7 years (interquartile range: 2.9-4.3). Air pollution and natural spaces exposure decreased from pregnancy to childhood, while socioeconomic capital increased. The highest median correlations within exposure groups were observed in meteorology (r = 0.85), traffic (r = 0.83), and atmospheric pollutants (r = 0.64). Important correlations between variables from different exposure groups were found, such as atmospheric pollutants and meteorology (r = 0.76), natural spaces (r = -0.34), and the built environment (r = 0.53). Twenty principal components explained 70%, and 57 explained 95% of the total variance in the childhood exposome. Our findings show that there is an important spatiotemporal variation in the exposome of children under 5. This is the first characterization of the external exposome in urban areas of Latin America and highlights its complexity, but also the need to better characterize and understand the exposome in order to optimize its analysis and applications in local interventions aimed at improving the health conditions and well-being of the child population and contributing to environmental health decision-making.
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Exposição Ambiental , Expossoma , Humanos , Colômbia/epidemiologia , Pré-Escolar , Feminino , Exposição Ambiental/análise , Masculino , Poluentes Atmosféricos/análise , Gravidez , Poluição do Ar/análise , Estudos de CoortesRESUMO
Climate change is elevating nighttime and daytime temperatures worldwide, affecting a broad continuum of behavioral and health outcomes. Disturbed sleep is a plausible pathway linking rising ambient temperatures with several observed adverse human responses shown to increase during hot weather. This systematic review aims to provide a comprehensive overview of the literature investigating the relationship between ambient temperature and valid sleep outcomes measured in real-world settings, globally. We show that higher outdoor or indoor temperatures are generally associated with degraded sleep quality and quantity worldwide. The negative effect of heat persists across sleep measures, and is stronger during the hottest months and days, in vulnerable populations, and the warmest regions. Although we identify opportunities to strengthen the state of the science, limited evidence of fast sleep adaptation to heat suggests rising temperatures induced by climate change and urbanization pose a planetary threat to human sleep, and therefore health, performance, and wellbeing.
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Mudança Climática , Temperatura Alta , Sono , Humanos , Temperatura Alta/efeitos adversos , Sono/fisiologia , Qualidade do SonoRESUMO
BACKGROUND: A growing body of evidence has reported positive associations between long-term exposure to air pollution and poor COVID-19 outcomes. Inconsistent findings have been reported for short-term air pollution, mostly from ecological study designs. Using individual-level data, we studied the association between short-term variation in air pollutants [nitrogen dioxide (NO2), particulate matter with a diameter of <2.5 µm (PM2.5) and a diameter of <10 µm (PM10) and ozone (O3)] and hospital admission among individuals diagnosed with COVID-19. METHODS: The COVAIR-CAT (Air pollution in relation to COVID-19 morbidity and mortality: a large population-based cohort study in Catalonia, Spain) cohort is a large population-based cohort in Catalonia, Spain including 240 902 individuals diagnosed with COVID-19 in the primary care system from 1 March until 31 December 2020. Our outcome was hospitalization within 30 days of COVID-19 diagnosis. We used individual residential address to assign daily air-pollution exposure, estimated using machine-learning methods for spatiotemporal prediction. For each pandemic wave, we fitted Cox proportional-hazards models accounting for non-linear-distributed lagged exposure over the previous 7 days. RESULTS: Results differed considerably by pandemic wave. During the second wave, an interquartile-range increase in cumulative weekly exposure to air pollution (lag0_7) was associated with a 12% increase (95% CI: 4% to 20%) in COVID-19 hospitalizations for NO2, 8% (95% CI: 1% to 16%) for PM2.5 and 9% (95% CI: 3% to 15%) for PM10. We observed consistent positive associations for same-day (lag0) exposure, whereas lag-specific associations beyond lag0 were generally not statistically significant. CONCLUSIONS: Our study suggests positive associations between NO2, PM2.5 and PM10 and hospitalization risk among individuals diagnosed with COVID-19 during the second wave. Cumulative hazard ratios were largely driven by exposure on the same day as hospitalization.
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Poluentes Atmosféricos , Poluição do Ar , COVID-19 , Ozônio , Humanos , Espanha/epidemiologia , Estudos de Coortes , Dióxido de Nitrogênio/efeitos adversos , Dióxido de Nitrogênio/análise , Teste para COVID-19 , COVID-19/epidemiologia , Poluição do Ar/efeitos adversos , Poluição do Ar/análise , Poluentes Atmosféricos/efeitos adversos , Poluentes Atmosféricos/análise , Material Particulado/efeitos adversos , Material Particulado/análise , Ozônio/efeitos adversos , Ozônio/análise , Hospitalização , Hospitais , Exposição Ambiental/efeitos adversos , Exposição Ambiental/análiseRESUMO
OBJECTIVE: Factors that shape individuals' vulnerability to the effects of air pollution on COVID-19 severity remain poorly understood. We evaluated whether the association between long-term exposure to ambient NO2, PM2.5, and PM10 and COVID-19 hospitalisation differs by age, sex, individual income, area-level socioeconomic status, arterial hypertension, diabetes mellitus, and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. METHODS: We analysed a population-based cohort of 4,639,184 adults in Catalonia, Spain, during 2020. We fitted Cox proportional hazard models adjusted for several potential confounding factors and evaluated the interaction effect between vulnerability indicators and the 2019 annual average of NO2, PM2.5, and PM10. We evaluated interaction on both additive and multiplicative scales. RESULTS: Overall, the association was additive between air pollution and the vulnerable groups. Air pollution and vulnerability indicators had a synergistic (greater than additive) effect for males and individuals with low income or living in the most deprived neighbourhoods. The Relative Excess Risk due to Interaction (RERI) was 0.21, 95 % CI, 0.15 to 0.27 for NO2 and 0.16, 95 % CI, 0.11 to 0.22 for PM2.5 for males; 0.13, 95 % CI, 0.09 to 0.18 for NO2 and 0.10, 95 % CI, 0.05 to 0.14 for PM2.5 for lower individual income and 0.17, 95 % CI, 0.12 to 0.22 for NO2 and 0.09, 95 % CI, 0.05 to 0.14 for PM2.5 for lower area-level socioeconomic status. Results for PM10 were similar to PM2.5. Results on multiplicative scale were inconsistent. CONCLUSIONS: Long-term exposure to air pollution had a larger synergistic effect on COVID-19 hospitalisation for males and those with lower individual- and area-level socioeconomic status.
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Poluentes Atmosféricos , Poluição do Ar , COVID-19 , Masculino , Adulto , Humanos , Poluentes Atmosféricos/efeitos adversos , Poluentes Atmosféricos/análise , Material Particulado/efeitos adversos , Material Particulado/análise , Dióxido de Nitrogênio/análise , Exposição Ambiental/efeitos adversos , Exposição Ambiental/análise , COVID-19/epidemiologia , Poluição do Ar/efeitos adversos , Poluição do Ar/análise , HospitalizaçãoRESUMO
Background: Daily time-series regression models are commonly used to estimate the lagged nonlinear relation between temperature and mortality. A major impediment to this type of analysis is the restricted access to daily health records. The use of weekly and monthly data represents a possible solution unexplored to date. Methods: We temporally aggregated daily temperatures and mortality records from 147 contiguous regions in 16 European countries, representing their entire population of over 400 million people. We estimated temperature-lag-mortality relationships by using standard time-series quasi-Poisson regression models applied to daily data, and compared the results with those obtained with different degrees of temporal aggregation. Findings: We observed progressively larger differences in the epidemiological estimates with the degree of temporal data aggregation. The daily data model estimated an annual cold and heat-related mortality of 290,104 (213,745-359,636) and 39,434 (30,782-47,084) deaths, respectively, and the weekly model underestimated these numbers by 8.56% and 21.56%. Importantly, differences were systematically smaller during extreme cold and heat periods, such as the summer of 2003, with an underestimation of only 4.62% in the weekly data model. We applied this framework to infer that the heat-related mortality burden during the year 2022 in Europe may have exceeded the 70,000 deaths. Interpretation: The present work represents a first reference study validating the use of weekly time series as an approximation to the short-term effects of cold and heat on human mortality. This approach can be adopted to complement access-restricted data networks, and facilitate data access for research, translation and policy-making. Funding: The study was supported by the ERC Consolidator Grant EARLY-ADAPT (https://www.early-adapt.eu/), and the ERC Proof-of-Concept Grants HHS-EWS and FORECAST-AIR.
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Once an external factor has been deemed likely to influence human health and a dose response function is available, an assessment of its health impact or that of policies aimed at influencing this and possibly other factors in a specific population can be obtained through a quantitative risk assessment, or health impact assessment (HIA) study. The health impact is usually expressed as a number of disease cases or disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) attributable to or expected from the exposure or policy. We review the methodology of quantitative risk assessment studies based on human data. The main steps of such studies include definition of counterfactual scenarios related to the exposure or policy, exposure(s) assessment, quantification of risks (usually relying on literature-based dose response functions), possibly economic assessment, followed by uncertainty analyses. We discuss issues and make recommendations relative to the accuracy and geographic scale at which factors are assessed, which can strongly influence the study results. If several factors are considered simultaneously, then correlation, mutual influences and possibly synergy between them should be taken into account. Gaps or issues in the methodology of quantitative risk assessment studies include 1) proposing a formal approach to the quantitative handling of the level of evidence regarding each exposure-health pair (essential to consider emerging factors); 2) contrasting risk assessment based on human dose-response functions with that relying on toxicological data; 3) clarification of terminology of health impact assessment and human-based risk assessment studies, which are actually very similar, and 4) other technical issues related to the simultaneous consideration of several factors, in particular when they are causally linked.
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Projetos de Pesquisa , Medição de Risco , Medição de Risco/métodosRESUMO
INTRODUCTION: Patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) accumulate low levels of physical activity. How environmental factors affect their physical activity in the short-term is uncertain. AIM: to assess the short-term effects of air pollution and weather on physical activity levels in COPD patients. METHODS: This multi-center panel study assessed 408 COPD patients from Catalonia (Spain). Daily physical activity (i.e., steps, time in moderate-to-vigorous physical activity (MVPA), locomotion intensity, and sedentary time) was recorded in two 7-day periods, one year apart, using the Dynaport MoveMonitor. Air pollution (nitrogen dioxide (NO2), particulate matter below 10 µm (PM10) and a marker of black carbon (absorbance of PM2.5: PM2.5ABS), and weather (average and maximum temperature, and rainfall) were estimated the same day (lag zero) and up to 5 days prior to each assessment (lags 1-5). Mixed-effect distributed lag linear regression models were adjusted for age, sex, weekday, public holidays, greenness, season, and social class, with patient and city as random effects. RESULTS: Patients (85% male) were on average (mean ± SD) 68 ± 9 years old with a post-bronchodilator forced expiratory volume in 1 s (FEV1) of 57 ± 18% predicted. Higher NO2, PM10 and PM2.5ABS levels at lag four were associated with fewer steps, less time in MVPA, reduced locomotion intensity, and longer sedentary time (e.g., coefficient (95% CI) of -60 (-105, -15) steps per 10 µg/m3 increase in NO2). Higher average and maximum temperatures at lag zero were related to more steps and time in MVPA, and less sedentary time (e.g., +85 (15, 154) steps per degree Celsius). Higher rainfall at lag zero was related to fewer steps and more sedentary time. CONCLUSION: Air pollution affects the amount and intensity of physical activity performed on the following days in COPD patients, whereas weather affects the amount of physical activity performed on the same day.
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Poluentes Atmosféricos , Poluição do Ar , Doença Pulmonar Obstrutiva Crônica , Humanos , Masculino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Idoso , Feminino , Poluentes Atmosféricos/toxicidade , Dióxido de Nitrogênio/análise , Poluição do Ar/análise , Tempo (Meteorologia) , Material Particulado/análise , Doença Pulmonar Obstrutiva Crônica/epidemiologia , Exposição AmbientalRESUMO
INTRODUCTION: Previous studies identified some environmental and lifestyle factors independently associated with children respiratory health, but few focused on exposure mixture effects. This study aimed at identifying, in pregnancy and in childhood, combined urban and lifestyle environment profiles associated with respiratory health in children. METHODS: This study is based on the European Human Early-Life Exposome (HELIX) project, combining six birth cohorts. Associations between profiles of pregnancy (38 exposures) and childhood (84 exposures) urban and lifestyle factors, identified by clustering analysis, and respiratory health were estimated by regression models adjusted for confounders. RESULTS: Among the 1033 included children (mean ± standard-deviation (SD) age: 8.2 ± 1.6 years old, 47% girls) the mean ± SD forced expiratory volume in 1s (FEV1) and forced vital capacity (FVC) were 99 ± 13% and 101 ± 14%, respectively, and 12%, 12% and 24% reported ever-asthma, wheezing and rhinitis, respectively. Four profiles of pregnancy exposures and four profiles of childhood exposures were identified. Compared to the reference childhood exposure profile (low exposures), two exposure profiles were associated with lower levels of FEV1. One profile was characterized by few natural spaces in the surroundings and high exposure to the built environment and road traffic. The second profile was characterized by high exposure to meteorological factors and low levels of all other exposures and was also associated with an increased risk of ever-asthma and wheezing. A pregnancy exposure profile characterized by high exposure levels to all risk factors, but a healthy maternal lifestyle, was associated with a lower risk of wheezing and rhinitis in children, compared to the reference pregnancy profile (low exposures). CONCLUSION: This comprehensive approach revealed pregnancy and childhood profiles of urban and lifestyle exposures associated with lung function and/or respiratory conditions in children. Our findings highlight the need to pursue the study of combined exposures to improve prevention strategies for multifactorial diseases such as asthma.
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Asma , Rinite , Criança , Feminino , Gravidez , Humanos , Masculino , Sons Respiratórios , Exposição Ambiental/análise , Asma/epidemiologia , Asma/etiologia , Estilo de VidaRESUMO
Outcome-wide analysis can offer several benefits, including increased power to detect weak signals and the ability to identify exposures with multiple effects on health, which may be good targets for preventive measures. Recently, advanced statistical multivariate techniques for outcome-wide analysis have been developed, but they have been rarely applied to exposome analysis. In this work, we provide an overview of a selection of methods that are well-suited for outcome-wide exposome analysis and are implemented in the R statistical software. Our work brings together six different methods presenting innovative solutions for typical problems arising from outcome-wide approaches in the context of the exposome, including dependencies among outcomes, high dimensionality, mixed-type outcomes, missing data records, and confounding effects. The identified methods can be grouped into four main categories: regularized multivariate regression techniques, multi-task learning approaches, dimensionality reduction approaches, and bayesian extensions of the multivariate regression framework. Here, we compare each technique presenting its main rationale, strengths, and limitations, and provide codes and guidelines for their application to exposome data. Additionally, we apply all selected methods to a real exposome dataset from the Human Early-Life Exposome (HELIX) project, demonstrating their suitability for exposome research. Although the choice of the best method will always depend on the challenges to be faced in each application, for an exposome-like analysis we find dimensionality reduction and bayesian methods such as reduced rank regression (RRR) or multivariate bayesian shrinkage priors (MBSP) particularly useful, given their ability to deal with critical issues such as collinearity, high-dimensionality, missing data or quantification of uncertainty.
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Expossoma , Humanos , Exposição Ambiental , Teorema de BayesRESUMO
The exposome concept aims to consider all environmental stressors simultaneously. The dimension of the data and the correlation that may exist between exposures lead to various statistical challenges. Some methodological studies have provided insight regarding the efficiency of specific modeling approaches in the context of exposome data assessed once for each subject. However, few studies have considered the situation in which environmental exposures are assessed repeatedly. Here, we conduct a simulation study to compare the performance of statistical approaches to assess exposome-health associations in the context of multiple exposure variables. Different scenarios were tested, assuming different types and numbers of exposure-outcome causal relationships. An application study using real data collected within the INMA mother-child cohort (Spain) is also presented. In the simulation experiment, assessed methods showed varying performance across scenarios, making it challenging to recommend a one-size-fits-all strategy. Generally, methods such as sparse partial least-squares and the deletion-substitution-addition algorithm tended to outperform the other tested methods (ExWAS, Elastic-Net, DLNM, or sNPLS). Notably, as the number of true predictors increased, the performance of all methods declined. The absence of a clearly superior approach underscores the additional challenges posed by repeated exposome data, such as the presence of more complex correlation structures and interdependencies between variables, and highlights that careful consideration is essential when selecting the appropriate statistical method. In this regard, we provide recommendations based on the expected scenario. Given the heightened risk of reporting false positive or negative associations when applying these techniques to repeated exposome data, we advise interpreting the results with caution, particularly in compromised contexts such as those with a limited sample size.
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Expossoma , Humanos , Exposição Ambiental , Espanha , AlgoritmosRESUMO
Environmental epidemiology studies require models of multiple exposures to adjust for co-exposure and explore interactions. We estimated spatiotemporal exposure to surface air temperature and pollution (PM2.5, PM10, NO2, O3) at high spatiotemporal resolution (daily, 250 m) for 2018-2020 in Catalonia. Innovations include the use of TROPOMI products, a data split for remote sensing gap-filling evaluation, estimation of prediction uncertainty, and use of explainable machine learning. We compiled meteorological and air quality station measurements, climate and atmospheric composition reanalyses, remote sensing products, and other spatiotemporal data. We performed gap-filling of remotely-sensed products using Random Forest (RF) models and validated them using Out-Of-Bag (OOB) samples and a structured data split. The exposure modelling workflow consisted of: 1) PM2.5 station imputation with PM10 data; 2) quantile RF (QRF) model fitting; and 3) geostatistical residual spatial interpolation. Prediction uncertainty was estimated using QRF. SHAP values were used to examine variable importance and the fitted relationships. Model performance was assessed via nested CV at the station level. Evaluation of the gap-filling models using the structured split showed error underestimation when using OOB. Temperature models had the best performance (R2 =0.98) followed by the gaseous air pollutants (R2 =0.81 for NO2 and 0.86 for O3), while the performance of the PM2.5 and PM10 models was lower (R2 =0.57 and 0.63 respectively). Predicted exposure patterns captured urban heat island effects, dust advection events, and NO2 hotspots. SHAP values estimated a high importance of TROPOMI tropospheric NO2 columns in PM and NO2 models, and confirmed that the fitted associations conformed to prior knowledge. Our work highlights the importance of correctly validating gap-filling models and the potential of TROPOMI measurements. Moderate performance in PM models can be partly explained by the poor station coverage. Our exposure estimates can be used in epidemiological studies potentially accounting for exposure uncertainty.