RESUMO
BACKGROUND: Post-fecal immunochemical test (FIT) colonoscopy represents a setting with an enriched prevalence of advanced adenomas. Due to an expected higher risk of colorectal cancer (CRC), postpolypectomy surveillance is recommended, generating a substantially increased load on endoscopy services. The aim of our study was to investigate postpolypectomy CRC risk in a screening population of FIT+ subjects after resection of low-risk adenomas (LRAs) or high-risk adenomas (HRAs). METHODS: We retrieved data from a cohort of patients undergoing postpolypectomy surveillance within a FIT-based CRC screening program in Italy between 2002 and 2017 and followed-up to December 2021. Main outcomes were postpolypectomy CRC incidence and mortality risks according to type of adenoma (LRA/HRA) removed at colonoscopy as well as morphology, size, dysplasia, and location of the index lesion. We adopted as comparators FIT+/colonoscopy-negative and FIT- patients. The absolute risk was calculated as the number of incident CRCs per 100,000 person-years of follow-up. We used Cox multivariable regression models to identify associations between CRC risks and patient- and polyp-related variables. RESULTS: Overall, we included 87,248 post-FIT+ colonoscopies (133 endoscopists). Of these, 42,899 (49.2%) were negative, 21,650 (24.8%) had an LRA, and 22,709 (26.0%) an HRA. After a median follow-up of 7.25 years, a total of 635 CRCs were observed. For patients with LRAs, CRC incidence (hazard ratio [HR], 1.18; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.92-1.53) was not increased compared with the FIT+/colonoscopy-negative group, while for HRAs a significant increase in CRC incidence (HR, 1.53; 95% CI, 1.14-2.04) was found. The presence of 1 or more risk factors among proximal location, nonpedunculated morphology, and high-grade dysplasia explained most of this excess CRC risk in the HRA group (HR, 1.85; 95% CI, 1.36-2.52). Patients with only distal pedunculated polyps without high-grade dysplasia, representing 39.2% of HRA, did not have increased risk compared with the FIT- group (HR, 0.87; 95% CI, 0.59-1.28). CONCLUSIONS: CRC incidence is significantly higher in patients with HRAs diagnosed at colonoscopy. However, such excess risk does not appear to apply to patients with only distal pedunculated polyps without high-grade dysplasia, an observation that could potentially reduce the burden of surveillance in FIT programs.
Assuntos
Pólipos do Colo , Colonoscopia , Neoplasias Colorretais , Humanos , Masculino , Feminino , Neoplasias Colorretais/cirurgia , Neoplasias Colorretais/epidemiologia , Neoplasias Colorretais/patologia , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Idoso , Itália/epidemiologia , Pólipos do Colo/cirurgia , Pólipos do Colo/patologia , Pólipos do Colo/epidemiologia , Incidência , Adenoma/cirurgia , Adenoma/epidemiologia , Adenoma/patologia , Medição de Risco , Detecção Precoce de Câncer/métodos , Fatores de Risco , Estudos RetrospectivosRESUMO
BACKGROUND: Colorectal cancer (CRC) screening programs based on fecal immunochemical tests (FITs) represent the standard of care for population-based interventions. Their benefit depends on the identification of neoplasia at colonoscopy after FIT positivity. Colonoscopy quality measured by adenoma detection rate (ADR) may affect screening program effectiveness. OBJECTIVE: To examine the association between ADR and postcolonoscopy CRC (PCCRC) risk in a FIT-based screening program. DESIGN: Retrospective population-based cohort study. SETTING: Fecal immunochemical test-based CRC screening program between 2003 and 2021 in northeastern Italy. PATIENTS: All patients with a positive FIT result who had a colonoscopy were included. MEASUREMENTS: The regional cancer registry supplied information on any PCCRC diagnosed between 6 months and 10 years after colonoscopy. Endoscopists' ADR was categorized into 5 groups (20% to 39.9%, 40% to 44.9%, 45% to 49.9%, 50% to 54.9%, and 55% to 70%). To examine the association of ADR with PCCRC incidence risk, Cox regression models were fitted to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% CIs. RESULTS: Of the 110 109 initial colonoscopies, 49 626 colonoscopies done by 113 endoscopists between 2012 and 2017 were included. After 328 778 person-years follow-up, 277 cases of PCCRC were diagnosed. Mean ADR was 48.3% (range, 23% and 70%). Incidence rates of PCCRC from lowest to highest ADR group were 13.13, 10.61, 7.60, 6.01, and 5.78 per 10 000 person-years. There was a significant inverse association between ADR and PCCRC incidence risk, with a 2.35-fold risk increase (95% CI, 1.63 to 3.38) in the lowest group compared with the highest. The adjusted HR for PCCRC associated with 1% increase in ADR was 0.96 (CI, 0.95 to 0.98). LIMITATION: Adenoma detection rate is partly determined by FIT positivity cutoff; exact values may vary in different settings. CONCLUSION: In a FIT-based screening program, ADR is inversely associated with PCCRC incidence risk, mandating appropriate colonoscopy quality monitoring in this setting. Increasing endoscopists' ADR may significantly reduce PCCRC risk. PRIMARY FUNDING SOURCE: None.
Assuntos
Adenoma , Neoplasias Colorretais , Humanos , Estudos de Coortes , Estudos Retrospectivos , Detecção Precoce de Câncer , Neoplasias Colorretais/diagnóstico , Neoplasias Colorretais/epidemiologia , Colonoscopia , Adenoma/diagnóstico , Adenoma/epidemiologia , Convulsões , Programas de RastreamentoRESUMO
Population-based cancer registration methods are subject to internationally-established rules. To ensure efficient and effective case recording, population-based cancer registries widely adopt digital processing (DP) methods. At the Veneto Tumor Registry (RTV), about 50% of all digitally-identified (putative) cases of cancer are further profiled by means of registrars' assessments (RAs). Taking these RAs for reference, the present study examines how well the registry's DP performs. A series of 1,801 (putative) incident and prevalent cancers identified using DP methods were randomly assigned to two experienced registrars (blinded to the DP output), who independently re-assessed every case. This study focuses on the concordance between the DP output and the RAs as concerns cancer status (incident versus prevalent), topography, and morphology. The RAs confirmed the cancer status emerging from DP for 1,266/1,317 incident cancers (positive predictive value [PPV] = 96.1%) and 460/472 prevalent cancers (PPV = 97.5%). This level of concordance ranks as "optimal", with a Cohen's K value of 0.91. The overall prevalence of false-positive cancer cases identified by DP was 2.9%, and was affected by the number of digital variables available. DP and the RAs were consistent in identifying cancer topography in 88.7% of cases; differences concerned different sites within the same anatomo-functional district (according to the International Agency for Research on Cancer [IARC]) in 9.6% of cases. In short, using DP for cancer case registration suffers from only trivial inconsistencies. The efficiency and reliability of digital cancer registration is influenced by the availability of good-quality clinical information, and the regular interdisciplinary monitoring of a registry's DP performance.
Assuntos
Neoplasias , Humanos , Reprodutibilidade dos Testes , Neoplasias/epidemiologia , Neoplasias/patologia , Sistema de Registros , Prevalência , Controle de QualidadeRESUMO
OBJECTIVES: to evaluate if the country of origin affects participation and outcomes of cervical cancer screening. DESIGN: retrospective cohort study. SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: all Italian and foreign women resident in the Veneto region (North-Eastern Italy) who were born between 1986 and 1992 and who had been invited for the first time through the screening programme between 2011 and 2017 were identified and included in the survey. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: participation to screening was calculated along with the detection of Cervical Intraepithelial Neoplasia (CIN) grade 2 or 3 and of carcinoma, by citizenship. RESULTS: 96,105 (77.5%) Italians and 27,958 (22.5%) foreign women were included. Overall, the adjusted participation was 53.3%, with large differences among the geographical study areas. The value was highest for Italian women (56.4%), while women with other citizenships showed lower attendance: 45.5% for Eastern Europe, 44.8% for Sub Saharan Africa, 40.0% for Northern Africa, 38.5% for Central and Southern America, and 36.5% for Asia. The detection of CIN2+ was higher for women from Central and Southern America (23.0) or from Eastern Europe (17.9), while it was lower for those from Italy (11.9), Northern Africa (7.5), Sub-Saharan Africa (6.6), and from Asia (2.5) (p<0.001). CONCLUSIONS: cervical screening programmes should identify and face the barriers to participation of foreign women. This is particularly important for women from geographic areas with a high prevalence of disease, such as Central and Southern America and Eastern Europe.
Assuntos
Emigrantes e Imigrantes , Infecções por Papillomavirus , Neoplasias do Colo do Útero , Detecção Precoce de Câncer , Feminino , Humanos , Itália/epidemiologia , Programas de Rastreamento , Infecções por Papillomavirus/epidemiologia , Estudos Retrospectivos , Neoplasias do Colo do Útero/diagnóstico , Neoplasias do Colo do Útero/epidemiologiaRESUMO
INTRODUCTION: In Italy, regional governments are in charge of implementing cervical, breast and colorectal cancer screening programmes. The 2020 Coronavirus pandemic led to a national lockdown and the temporary suspension of several non-urgent healthcare activities, including cancer screening. This paper aims to describe the results of a national survey carried out by the National Centre for Screening Monitoring (ONS) on cervical, breast and colorectal cancer screening activities in 2020. MATERIALS AND METHODS: A national survey was conducted by ONS in 2020 to assess: the number of screening invitations by Region; the volumes of screening tests and the attitude to attend the screening programme compared to 2019; the number of delayed diagnoses of malignant or pre-malignant lesions caused by the slowing down of screening programmes, based on the average Region-specific screening detection rate for cervical, breast and colorectal cancers. RESULTS: Screening tests for breast, colorectal and cervical cancer decreased by 37.6%, 45.5% and 43.4% in 2020 compared with 2019. In 2020 the estimated numbers of undiagnosed lesions are: 3,324 breast cancers, 1,299 colorectal cancers, 7,474 colorectal advanced adenomas and 2,782 CIN2 or more severe cervical lesions. Participation in cancer screening programmes decreased by 15%, 15% and 20%, for cervical, breast and CRC screening, respectively. DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSIONS: An urgent call to action is needed to prevent further delays and to limit the impact of the pandemic on cancer diagnosis and prevention.
Assuntos
COVID-19 , Neoplasias , COVID-19/diagnóstico , COVID-19/epidemiologia , Controle de Doenças Transmissíveis , Diagnóstico Tardio , Detecção Precoce de Câncer/métodos , Feminino , Humanos , Itália/epidemiologia , Pandemias/prevenção & controleRESUMO
BACKGROUND: The risk of colorectal cancer (CRC) among subjects with a positive faecal immunochemical test (FIT) who do not undergo a colonoscopy is unknown. We estimated whether non-compliance with colonoscopy after a positive FIT is associated with increased CRC incidence and mortality. METHODS: The FIT-based CRC screening programme in the Veneto region (Italy) invited persons aged 50 to 69 years with a positive FIT (>20 µg Hb/g faeces) for diagnostic colonoscopy at an endoscopic referral centre. In this retrospective cohort study, we compared the 10-year cumulative CRC incidence and mortality among FIT positives who completed a diagnostic colonoscopy within the programme (compliers) and those who did not (non-compliers), using the Kaplan-Meier estimator and Cox-Aalen models. RESULTS: Some 88 013 patients who were FIT positive complied with colonoscopy (males: 56.1%; aged 50-59 years: 49.1%) while 23 410 did not (males: 54.6%; aged 50-59 years: 44.9%).The 10-year cumulative incidence of CRC was 44.7 per 1000 (95% CI, 43.1 to 46.3) among colonoscopy compliers and 54.3 per 1000 (95% CI, 49.9 to 58.7) in non-compliers, while the cumulative mortality for CRC was 6.8 per 1000 (95% CI, 5.9 to 7.6) and 16.0 per 1000 (95% CI, 13.1 to 18.9), respectively. The risk of dying of CRC among non-compliers was 103% higher than among compliers (adjusted HR, 2.03; 95% CI, 1.68 to 2.44). CONCLUSION: The excess risk of CRC death among those not completing colonoscopy after a positive faecal occult blood test should prompt screening programmes to adopt effective interventions to increase compliance in this high-risk population.
Assuntos
Colonoscopia , Neoplasias Colorretais/diagnóstico , Neoplasias Colorretais/epidemiologia , Cooperação do Paciente , Idoso , Detecção Precoce de Câncer , Fezes , Feminino , Humanos , Incidência , Itália , Masculino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Estudos Retrospectivos , Fatores de Risco , Taxa de SobrevidaRESUMO
BACKGROUND: The Endocuff Vision device (Arc Medical Design Ltd., Leeds, UK) has been shown to increase mucosal exposure, and consequently adenoma detection rate (ADR), during colonoscopy. This nationwide multicenter study assessed possible benefits and harms of using Endocuff Vision in a fecal immunochemical test (FIT)-based screening program. METHODS: Patients undergoing colonoscopy after a FIT-positive test were randomized 1:1 to undergo Endocuff-assisted colonoscopy or standard colonoscopy, stratified by sex, age, and screening history. Primary outcome was ADR. Secondary outcomes were ADR stratified by endoscopists' ADR, advanced ADR (AADR), adenomas per colonoscopy (APC), withdrawal time, and adverse events. RESULTS: 1866 patients were enrolled across 13 centers. After exclusions, 1813 (mean age 60.1 years; male 53.8â%) were randomized (908 Endocuff Vision, 905 standard colonoscopy). ADR was significantly higher in the Endocuff Vision arm (47.8â% vs. 40.8â%; relative risk [RR] 1.17, 95â% confidence interval [CI] 1.06-1.30), with no differences between arms regarding size or morphology. When stratifying for endoscopists' ADR, only low detectors (ADRâ<â33.3â%) showed a statistically significant ADR increase (Endocuff Vision 41.1â% [95â%CI 35.7-46.7] vs. standard colonoscopy 26.0â% [95â%CI 21.3-31.4]). AADR (24.8â% vs. 20.5â%, RR 1.21, 95â%CI 1.02-1.43) and APC (0.94 vs. 0.77; P â=â0.001) were higher in the Endocuff Vision arm. Withdrawal time and adverse events were similar between arms. CONCLUSION: Endocuff Vision increased ADR in a FIT-based screening program by improving examination of the whole colonic mucosa. Utility was highest among endoscopists with a low ADR.
Assuntos
Adenoma , Neoplasias Colorretais , Adenoma/diagnóstico , Colo , Colonoscopia , Neoplasias Colorretais/diagnóstico , Neoplasias Colorretais/etiologia , Detecção Precoce de Câncer , Humanos , Masculino , Programas de Rastreamento , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Sangue OcultoRESUMO
Limited endoscopy capacity usually represents the main barrier to the extension of screening to subjects older than 70, given the high positivity rate in this age group. We assessed CRC incidence and mortality by number of previous negative fecal immunochemical tests (FIT) among subjects turning 70. We selected persons aged 70 years who had received their last screening invitation when they were 68 or 69 years old within the population-based screening program in the Veneto region of Italy. Subjects with a positive FIT were excluded. We calculated 10-year cumulative CRC incidence and mortality in cohorts of subjects having performed zero, one, two or three negative FITs over the last three screening rounds before turning 70. Out of 117 858 subjects included in the study (46.4% men), 33.7% had never participated in screening (zero negative FITs), 23.3% had had one-negative FIT, 20.1% two-negative FITs and 22.9% three negative FITs. The 10-year cumulative CRC incidence was 29.7 per 1000 subjects with zero FITs, and respectively, 14.5, 11.7 and 9.6 per 1000 subjects with one, two and three negative FITs. The corresponding figures for 10-year cumulative mortality were 9.3, 3.5, 2.2 and 2.1 per 1000 in the four study cohorts. Figures were roughly double for men than for women for all the study cohorts. In order to use more efficiently limited endoscopy resources, and to minimize the potential harms related to false positive results in the elderly, screening among people aged 70 to 74 might be restricted to those with zero previous negative FITs.
Assuntos
Biomarcadores Tumorais/metabolismo , Neoplasias Colorretais/epidemiologia , Fezes/química , Idoso , Neoplasias Colorretais/metabolismo , Neoplasias Colorretais/mortalidade , Feminino , Humanos , Incidência , Itália , Masculino , Programas de Rastreamento , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Mortalidade , Estudos Prospectivos , Sensibilidade e EspecificidadeRESUMO
BACKGROUND: Screening significantly reduces mortality from colorectal cancer (CRC). Screen detected (SD) tumors associate with better prognosis, even at later stage, compared to non-screen detected (NSD) tumors. We aimed to evaluate the association between diagnostic modality (SD vs. NSD) and short- and long-term outcomes of patients undergoing surgery for CRC. MATERIALS AND METHODS: This retrospective cohort study involved patients aged 50-69 years, residing in Veneto, Italy, who underwent curative-intent surgery for CRC between 2006 and 2018. The clinical multi-institutional dataset was linked with the screening dataset in order to define diagnostic modality (SD vs. NSD). Short- and long-term outcomes were compared between the two groups. RESULTS: Of 1,360 patients included, 464 were SD (34.1%) and 896 NSD (65.9%). Patients with a SD CRC were more likely to have less comorbidities (p = 0.013), lower ASA score (p = 0.001), tumors located in the proximal colon (p = 0.0018) and earlier stage at diagnosis (p < 0.0001). NSD patients were found to have more aggressive disease at diagnosis, higher complication rate and higher readmission rate due to surgical complications (all p < 0.05). NSD patients had a significantly lower Disease Free Survival and Overall Survival (all p < 0.0001), even after adjusting by demographic, clinic-pathological, tumor, and treatment characteristics. CONCLUSIONS: SD tumors were associated with better long-term outcomes, even after multiple adjustments. Our results confirm the advantages for the target population to participate in the screening programs and comply with their therapeutic pathways.
RESUMO
BACKGROUND: Efficacy for cervical cancer prevention of opportunistic HPV vaccination in post-pubertal girls is lower than in 11-year-olds. METHODS: Women born between 1986 and 1992 vaccinated at 15-25 years of age (at least one dose of 4-valent HPV vaccine) and screened at 24-27 years of age were included. Frequency of opportunistic vaccination, overall and by birth cohort, was calculated; screening outcomes were compared between vaccinated and unvaccinated women. RESULTS: Overall, 4718 (4.9%) HPV-vaccinated, and 91,512 unvaccinated, women were studied. The frequency of vaccination increased by birth cohort, ranging between 1.8% and 9.8%; age at vaccination decreased progressively by birth cohort (p < 0.0001). Participation in screening was 60.8% among vaccinated, and 56.6% among unvaccinated, women (p < 0.0001). Detection rates (DR) for high-grade lesions were lower in vaccinated women (2.11 vs. 3.85 in unvaccinated, for CIN3+, p = 0.24; 0.0 vs. 0.22 for cancer). The DR of CIN3+ increased with age at vaccination, scoring respectively 0.0, 0.83, and 4.68 for women vaccinated when they were 15-16, 17-20, and 21-25 years old (p = 0.17). CONCLUSIONS: In comparison to unvaccinated women, higher compliance with cervical cancer screening invitation and lower CIN3+ DR among vaccinated women was observed. Age at vaccination was inversely correlated to vaccination efficacy.
Assuntos
Infecções por Papillomavirus/prevenção & controle , Vacinas contra Papillomavirus/administração & dosagem , Neoplasias do Colo do Útero/prevenção & controle , Adolescente , Adulto , Detecção Precoce de Câncer , Feminino , Humanos , Itália/epidemiologia , Programas de Rastreamento , Estudos Retrospectivos , Adulto JovemRESUMO
OBJECTIVES: to describe the course of Italian organized cancer screening programmes during the COVID-19 emergency; to provide estimates of the diagnosis of malignant or pre-malignant lesions that will face a diagnostic delay due to the slowing down of screening activities. DESIGN: quantitative survey of aggregated data for each Region and overall for Italy relating to screening tests carried out in the period January-May 2020 compared to those of the same period of 2019; estimate of diagnostic delays starting from the calculation of the average detection rate of the last 3 years available (specific by Region). SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: Italian mass screening programmes. Data on the tests carried out in the target population of the breast (women 50-69 years old), cervix (women 25-64 years old), and colorectal (women and men 50-69 years old) cancer screening. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: the cumulative delay (in absolute numbers and as a percentage) in the period January-May 2020 compared to the same period of 2019, by Region; the difference of screening tests (in absolute number and in percentage) performed in May 2020 compared to May 2019; the estimate of the fewer lesions diagnosed in 2020 compared with 2019 with relative 95% confidence intervals (95%CI); the 'standard months' of delay (proportion of fewer tests carried out from January to May 2020 for the corresponding number of months). RESULTS: 20 Regions out of 21 participated. In the period January-May 2020, the fewer screening tests performed in comparison with the same period of 2019 were: 472,389 (equal to 53.8%) with an average delay of standard months of 2.7 for mammography screening; 585,287 (equal to 54.9%) with an average delay of standard months of 2.7 for colorectal screening; 371,273 (equal to 55.3%) with an average delay of 2.8 standard months for cervical screening. The estimated number of undiagnosed lesions is 2,201 (95%CI 2,173-2,220) breast cancers; 645 (95%CI 632-661) colorectal carcinomas; 3,890 (95%CI 3,855-3,924) advanced colorectal adenomas and 1,497 (95%CI 1,413-1,586) CIN2 or more serious lesions. CONCLUSIONS: mass screenings need to be restarted as quickly as possible. In order to make up for the delay that is accumulating, it is necessary to provide for wider delivery times, greater resources, and new organizational approaches. It will also be essential to develop communication strategies suitable for promoting participation during this emergency.
Assuntos
Agendamento de Consultas , Neoplasias da Mama/diagnóstico , COVID-19/epidemiologia , Neoplasias Colorretais/diagnóstico , Diagnóstico Tardio , Detecção Precoce de Câncer , Pandemias , Quarentena , SARS-CoV-2 , Neoplasias do Colo do Útero/diagnóstico , Adulto , Idoso , Neoplasias da Mama/epidemiologia , Neoplasias Colorretais/epidemiologia , Diagnóstico Tardio/estatística & dados numéricos , Detecção Precoce de Câncer/estatística & dados numéricos , Feminino , Pesquisas sobre Atenção à Saúde , Acessibilidade aos Serviços de Saúde/estatística & dados numéricos , Humanos , Itália/epidemiologia , Mamografia/estatística & dados numéricos , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Utilização de Procedimentos e Técnicas/estatística & dados numéricos , Neoplasias do Colo do Útero/epidemiologiaRESUMO
OBJECTIVES: The prevalence of guaiac faecal occult blood positivity among participants aged 50 in the Scottish Bowel Screening Programme showed a significant increase from 2007 to 2017. As a comparison, we examined the trend in the prevalence of faecal immunochemical test (FIT) positivity among participants aged 50 in the colorectal cancer screening programme of the Veneto region (north-east Italy) from 2006 to 2018. METHODS: The target population includes residents aged 50-69, who are invited to repeat the FIT every two years. The screening programme uses the OC-Hemodia latex agglutination test, with a cut-off for positivity of 20 µg of haemoglobin per g of faeces. RESULTS: Based on 182,275 FITs performed on participants aged 50, overall FIT positivity was 3.6% in 2006 (95% confidence interval (CI): 3.1-4.2) and 3.7% (95% CI: 3.4-3.9) in 2018, showing no significant trend (p = 0.19). The prevalence of positive test results was higher in males throughout the study period. No gradient was seen for men (2006 = 4.4%, 95% CI: 3.6-5.3; 2018 = 4.2%, 95% CI: 3.9-4.6; p = 0.10) or women (2006 = 2.8%, 95% CI: 2.1-3.5; 2018 = 3.2%, 95% CI: 2.9-3.5; p = 0.84). CONCLUSIONS: In a FIT-based colorectal cancer screening programme in Italy, the test positivity over time was stable. Our findings suggest that the interpretation of faecal haemoglobin levels may not be geographically transferable.
Assuntos
Neoplasias Colorretais/diagnóstico , Hemoglobinas/análise , Sangue Oculto , Idoso , Detecção Precoce de Câncer/métodos , Feminino , Guaiaco , Humanos , Itália , Masculino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , PrevalênciaRESUMO
Aim of this study was to compare the 5-year risk of cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grade 2+ (CIN2+)/CIN3+ and the performance parameters at 3-year rescreening of a negative E6/E7 mRNA-human papillomavirus (HPV) test with those of a HPV-DNA-negative test. We studied a cohort of HPV-negative women tested with the Aptima HPV-mRNA Assay ("HPV-mRNA cohort") versus a cohort of HPV negatives tested with the Hybrid Capture 2 (HC2) DNA test living in neighboring areas. Both cohorts were rescreened after 3 years by a HPV-DNA test (HC2 or Cobas 4800 HPV test). HPV test positivity, referral to colposcopy and detection of CIN2+ at 3-year rescreening were computed. The Veneto Cancer Registry was checked to search for invasive cancers and CIN3 diagnosed up to 5 years from the negative baseline test. Some 22,338 HPV-mRNA and 68,695 HPV-DNA-negative women were invited to 3-year rescreening, and, respectively, 16,641 (74.5%) and 54,630 (79.6%) complied with the invitation. The proportion of HPV-positive tests, referral to colposcopy and detection of CIN2+ in the HPV-mRNA and HPV-DNA cohorts were, respectively. 4.0 and 3.9% (ratio 1.08; 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.99-1.17), 2.6 and 2.5% (ratio 1.06, 95% CI 0.95-1.18) and 1.4 and 1.7 (ratio 0.85, 95% CI 0.54-1.33). The relative 5-year cumulative risk of cancer and of CIN2+ in the HPV-mRNA and HPV-DNA cohorts were 4.5 and 8.7/100,000 (ratio 0.51; 95%CI 0.01-4.22) and 1.1 and 1.5/1,000 (ratio 0.74; 95%CI 0.45-1.16), respectively. A negative HPV-mRNA test confers a risk of invasive cervical carcinoma and of CIN2+ at 5 years comparable to that of a negative HPV-DNA test.