Identifying potential high-risk zones for land-derived plastic litter to marine megafauna and key habitats within the North Atlantic.

The pervasive use of plastic in modern society has led to plastic litter becoming ubiquitous within the ocean. Land-based sources of plastic litter are thought to account for the majority of plastic pollution in the marine environment, with plastic bags, bottles, wrappers, food containers and cutlery among the most common items found. In the marine environment, plastic is a transboundary pollutant, with the potential to cause damage far beyond the political borders from where it originated, making the management of this global pollutant particularly complex. In this study, the risks of land-derived plastic litter (LDPL) to major groups of marine megafauna - seabirds, cetaceans, pinnipeds, elasmobranchs, turtles, sirenians, tuna and billfish - and a selection of productive and biodiverse biogenic habitats - coral reefs, mangroves, seagrass, saltmarsh and kelp beds - were analysed using a Spatial Risk Assessment approach. The approach combines metrics for vulnerability (mechanism of harm for megafauna group or habitat), hazard (plastic abundance) and exposure (distribution of group or habitat). Several potential high-risk zones (HRZs) across the North Atlantic were highlighted, including the Azores, the UK, the French and US Atlantic coasts, and the US Gulf of Mexico. Whilst much of the modelled LDPL driving risk in the UK originated from domestic sources, in other HRZs, such as the Azores archipelago and the US Gulf of Mexico, plastic originated almost exclusively from external (non-domestic) sources. LDPL from Caribbean islands - some of the largest generators of marine plastic pollution in the dataset of river plastic emissions used in the study - was noted as a significant input to HRZs across both sides of the Atlantic. These findings highlight the potential of Spatial Risk Assessment analyses to determine the location of HRZs and understand where plastic debris monitoring and management should be prioritised, enabling more efficient deployment of interventions and mitigation measures.

Insights from international environmental legislation and protocols for the global plastic treaty.

Plastic pollution has emerged as a global challenge necessitating collective efforts to mitigate its adverse environmental consequences. International negotiations are currently underway to establish a global plastic treaty. Emphasizing the need for solution-orientated research, rather than focusing on further defining the problems of widespread environmental occurrence and ecological impacts, this paper extracts insights and draws key patterns that are relevant for these international negotiations. The analysis reveals that (i) environmental rather than human health concerns have been the predominant driving force behind previous regulations targeting pollutants, and (ii) the decision to ban or discontinue the use of harmful pollutants is primarily affected by the availability of viable substitutes. These two key findings are relevant to the discussions of the ongoing Intergovernmental Negotiating Committee (INC) on the global plastic treaty and underscore the recognition of environmental consequences associated with plastic pollution while emphasizing the need to enhance the knowledge base of potential human health risks. Leveraging the availability of substitutes can significantly contribute to the development and implementation of effective strategies aimed at reducing plastic usage and corresponding pollution.

Inclusion of condition in natural capital assessments is critical to the implementation of marine nature-based solutions.

Current approaches to measure ecosystem services (ES) within natural capital (NC) and nature-based solutions (NbS) assessments are generally coarse, often using a single figure for ecosystem services (e.g., nutrient remediation or blue carbon sequestration) applied to the local or national habitat stock, which fails to take account of local ecosystem conditions and regional variability. As such, there is a need for improved understanding of the link between habitat condition and ES provision, using comparable indicators in order to take more informed management decisions. Here the UK, Solent Marine Sites (SEMS) is used as a case study system to demonstrate how Water Framework Directive (WFD) 'ecological status' and other indicators of ecosystem condition (state or quality) can be coupled with habitat extent information to deliver a more precise locally-tailored NC approach for active coastal and marine habitat restoration. Habitat extent and condition data are collected for seven NbS relevant coastal habitats (littoral sediment, mat-forming green macroalgae, subtidal sediment, saltmarsh, seagrass, reedbeds and native oyster beds). The workflow includes: 1) biophysical assessment of regulatory ES; 2) monetary valuation; and 3) compilation of future scenarios of habitat restoration and creation. The results indicate that incorporating classifications by condition indices into local NC extent accounts improved ES benefits by 11-67%. This suggests that omitting condition from NC assessments could lead to undervaluation of ES benefits. Future scenarios of restoration in the SEMS also show that the additional regulatory benefits of reaching 'Good' ecological status are £376 million annually, but could be as much as £1.218 billion if 'High'status and all habitat creation targets were met. This evidence of the potential value of restoration and importance of including condition indices in assessments is highly relevant to consider when investing in water ecosystems conservation and restoration as called for by the UN Decade on Ecosystem Restoration (2021-2030), and more generally in global nutrient neutrality and blue carbon policy strategies.

Heterogeneity of values for coastal flood risk management with nature-based solutions.

The purpose of this study was to understand preferences for different coastal flood protection measures and the factors that influence such preferences, to inform management and policy. The Discrete Choice Experiment applied to Wales residents revealed that there is willingness-to-pay for coastal flood protection, especially through Nature-based Solutions (NbS) including expanding saltmarsh area and increasing saltmarsh with high vegetation. The preference for NbS provides evidence for including specific coastal area targets in financial schemes initially aimed at other benefits from natural habitats, such as habitat creation for biodiversity. This joint action will maximise the benefits from NbS and ensure integrated and concerted efforts across, often disjointed, sectors. There were also high levels of heterogeneity for preferences in different groups of people. For instance, results support that direct flood experience and damage severity can give rise to behavioural intentions that support mitigation and adaptation measures. Findings also highlight how crucial environmental education and direct contact with the object of study are for securing support and buy-in for flood protection measures. This work is original in that it considers the different types of management for a habitat as NbS and the heterogeneity of preferences within a population. Results are significant in providing a basis for future NbS developments and in supporting flood risk policy and management.

Bright spots as climate-smart marine spatial planning tools for conservation and blue growth.

Marine spatial planning that addresses ocean climate-driven change ('climate-smart MSP') is a global aspiration to support economic growth, food security and ecosystem sustainability. Ocean climate change ('CC') modelling may become a key decision-support tool for MSP, but traditional modelling analysis and communication challenges prevent their broad uptake. We employed MSP-specific ocean climate modelling analyses to inform a real-life MSP process; addressing how nature conservation and fisheries could be adapted to CC. We found that the currently planned distribution of these activities may become unsustainable during the policy's implementation due to CC, leading to a shortfall in its sustainability and blue growth targets. Significant, climate-driven ecosystem-level shifts in ocean components underpinning designated sites and fishing activity were estimated, reflecting different magnitudes of shifts in benthic versus pelagic, and inshore versus offshore habitats. Supporting adaptation, we then identified: CC refugia (areas where the ecosystem remains within the boundaries of its present state); CC hotspots (where climate drives the ecosystem towards a new state, inconsistent with each sectors' present use distribution); and for the first time, identified bright spots (areas where oceanographic processes drive range expansion opportunities that may support sustainable growth in the medium term). We thus create the means to: identify where sector-relevant ecosystem change is attributable to CC; incorporate resilient delivery of conservation and sustainable ecosystem management aims into MSP; and to harness opportunities for blue growth where they exist. Capturing CC bright spots alongside refugia within protected areas may present important opportunities to meet sustainability targets while helping support the fishing sector in a changing climate. By capitalizing on the natural distribution of climate resilience within ocean ecosystems, such climate-adaptive spatial management strategies could be seen as nature-based solutions to limit the impact of CC on ocean ecosystems and dependent blue economy sectors, paving the way for climate-smart MSP.

Assessing the natural capital value of water quality and climate regulation in temperate marine systems using a EUNIS biotope classification approach.

Using a natural capital framework to inform improvements to water quality and mitigation of climate change requires robust and spatially explicit ecosystem service data. Yet, for coastal habitats this approach is often constrained by a) sufficient and relevant habitat extent data and b) significant variability in baseline assessments used to quantify and value regulatory habitat services. Here, the European Nature Information System (EUNIS) habitat classification scheme is used to map seven key temperate coastal biotopes (littoral sediment, mat-forming green macroalgae, subtidal sediment, saltmarsh, seagrass, reedbeds and native oyster reefs) within the UK's Solent European Marine Site (SEMS). We then estimate the capacity of these biotopes to remove nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) and carbon (C), alongside monetary values associated with the resulting benefits. Littoral and sublittoral sediments (including those combined with macroalgae) were the largest contributors to total N, P and C removal, reflecting their large biotope area. However, our results also show considerable differences in relative biotope contributions to nutrient removal depending on how they are analysed and delineated over large spatial scales. When considered at a regional catchment level seagrass meadows, saltmarshes and reedbeds all had considerable N, P and C removal potential. Overall, we estimate that SEMS biotopes provide nutrient reductions and avoided climate damages equivalent to UK £1.1 billion, although this could be nearly £10 billion if water-treatment infrastructure costs and high carbon trading prices are utilised. Despite the variability in the final natural capital evaluations, the substantial regulatory value of N, P and C ecosystem services support a strong rational for restoring temperate coastal biotopes.

Global ecological, social and economic impacts of marine plastic.

This research takes a holistic approach to considering the consequences of marine plastic pollution. A semi-systematic literature review of 1191 data points provides the basis to determine the global ecological, social and economic impacts. An ecosystem impact analysis demonstrates that there is global evidence of impact with medium to high frequency on all subjects, with a medium to high degree of irreversibility. A novel translation of these ecological impacts into ecosystem service impacts provides evidence that all ecosystem services are impacted to some extent by the presence of marine plastic, with a reduction in provision predicted for all except one. This reduction in ecosystem service provision is evidenced to have implications for human health and wellbeing, linked particularly to fisheries, heritage and charismatic species, and recreation.

Developing conceptual models that link multiple ecosystem services to ecological research to aid management and policy, the UK marine example.

Our understanding of ecological processes that lead to ecosystem services is still evolving but ecological research aims to understand the linkages between the ecosystem and services. These linkages can affect trade-offs between different ecosystem services. Understanding these linkages, by considering multiple ecosystem services simultaneously supports management of the environment and sustainable use of resources. The UK marine environment is relatively data rich, yet the links between ecosystem and several ecosystem services and linkages between services are poorly described. A workshop with 35 marine scientists was used to create a conceptual model that links ecosystem components and key processes to four services they provide and to highlight trade-offs between them. The model was subsequently further developed to include pressures and mitigating management measures. The models are discussed in terms of their application to marine data to facilitate evidence-based marine management and their usefulness to communicate management measures with managers and stakeholders.

The effect of ocean acidification on carbon storage and sequestration in seagrass beds; a global and UK context.

Ocean acidification will have many negative consequences for marine organisms and ecosystems, leading to a decline in many ecosystem services provided by the marine environment. This study reviews the effect of ocean acidification (OA) on seagrasses, assessing how this may affect their capacity to sequester carbon in the future and providing an economic valuation of these changes. If ocean acidification leads to a significant increase in above- and below-ground biomass, the capacity of seagrass to sequester carbon will be significantly increased. The associated value of this increase in sequestration capacity is approximately £500 and 600 billion globally between 2010 and 2100. A proportionally similar increase in carbon sequestration value was found for the UK. This study highlights one of the few positive stories for ocean acidification and underlines that sustainable management of seagrasses is critical to avoid their continued degradation and loss of carbon sequestration capacity.

Abatement cost curves: a viable management tool for enabling the achievement of win-win waste reduction strategies?

Environmental regulation of industrial activity is generally believed to have a negative impact on the industry. Recent literature has suggested, however, that reducing industrial waste outputs can, in some circumstances, result in a 'win-win', or at least 'win-draw', scenario for industry and the environment. The viability of using the abatement cost curve method as a management tool to enable the achievement of a 'win-win' state is investigated here. Copper pollution in the Humber Estuary is used as a case-study, and the abatement cost curve methodology proves to be a valuable tool in identifying barriers to achieving the win-win state, and also in providing future direction for the waste management strategy. Abatement cost curves are concluded to be powerful management tools which greatly improve the transparency of waste reduction information.