Do We Become More Lonely With Age? A Coordinated Data Analysis of Nine Longitudinal Studies.

Loneliness is a pervasive experience with adverse impacts on health and well-being. Despite its significance, notable gaps impede a full understanding of how loneliness changes across the adult life span and what factors influence these changes. To address this, we conducted a coordinated data analysis of nine longitudinal studies encompassing 128,118 participants ages 13 to 103 from over 20 countries. Using harmonized variables and models, we examined loneliness trajectories and predictors. Analyses revealed that loneliness follows a U-shaped curve, decreasing from young adulthood to midlife and increasing in older adulthood. These patterns were consistent across studies. Several baseline factors (i.e., sex, marital status, physical function, education) were linked to loneliness levels, but few moderated the loneliness trajectories. These findings highlight the dynamic nature of loneliness and underscore the need for targeted interventions to reduce social disparities throughout adulthood.

Personality predictors of dementia diagnosis and neuropathological burden: An individual participant data meta-analysis.

INTRODUCTION: The extent to which the Big Five personality traits and subjective well-being (SWB) are discriminatory predictors of clinical manifestation of dementia versus dementia-related neuropathology is unclear. METHODS: Using data from eight independent studies (Ntotal = 44,531; Ndementia = 1703; baseline Mage = 49 to 81 years, 26 to 61% female; Mfollow-up range = 3.53 to 21.00 years), Bayesian multilevel models tested whether personality traits and SWB differentially predicted neuropsychological and neuropathological characteristics of dementia. RESULTS: Synthesized and individual study results indicate that high neuroticism and negative affect and low conscientiousness, extraversion, and positive affect were associated with increased risk of long-term dementia diagnosis. There were no consistent associations with neuropathology. DISCUSSION: This multistudy project provides robust, conceptually replicated and extended evidence that psychosocial factors are strong predictors of dementia diagnosis but not consistently associated with neuropathology at autopsy. HIGHLIGHTS: N(+), C(-), E(-), PA(-), and NA(+) were associated with incident diagnosis. Results were consistent despite self-report versus clinical diagnosis of dementia. Psychological factors were not associated with neuropathology at autopsy. Individuals with higher conscientiousness and no diagnosis had less neuropathology. High C individuals may withstand neuropathology for longer before death.

Associations Between Generativity and Social Asymmetry Among Older Adults in Japan.

OBJECTIVES: Loneliness and social isolation are major public health concerns among older adults in Japan. Generativity, the concern for and commitment to future generations, may buffer older adults from loneliness. This study examined the cross-sectional and longitudinal associations between generativity and social asymmetry (the discrepancy between social isolation and loneliness) among older adults in Japan. METHODS: Data were from 2 waves (2008 and 2012) of the Midlife in Japan survey, a nationally representative longitudinal study of 645 adults aged 30-79 residing in the Tokyo metropolitan area. Generativity was measured using the 6-item Loyola Generativity Scale. Social asymmetry was computed as the residual score from regressing loneliness onto social isolation. RESULTS: Higher generativity levels were associated with lower social asymmetry scores (B=-0.21, SE=0.04), but generativity change across waves did not predict social asymmetry 4 years later (B=-0.04, SE=0.06). DISCUSSION: Generativity may play a protective role in buffering older adults from the adverse effects of social isolation on loneliness. Promoting generativity among older adults may be a potential intervention strategy to reduce loneliness and improve well-being in aging populations in Japan.

Personality Science in the Digital Age: The Promises and Challenges of Psychological Targeting for Personalized Behavior-Change Interventions at Scale.

With the rapidly growing availability of scalable psychological assessments, personality science holds great promise for the scientific study and applied use of customized behavior-change interventions. To facilitate this development, we propose a classification system that divides psychological targeting into two approaches that differ in the process by which interventions are designed: audience-to-content matching or content-to-audience matching. This system is both integrative and generative: It allows us to (a) integrate existing research on personalized interventions from different psychological subdisciplines (e.g., political, educational, organizational, consumer, and clinical and health psychology) and to (b) articulate open questions that generate promising new avenues for future research. Our objective is to infuse personality science into intervention research and encourage cross-disciplinary collaborations within and outside of psychology. To ensure the development of personality-customized interventions aligns with the broader interests of individuals (and society at large), we also address important ethical considerations for the use of psychological targeting (e.g., privacy, self-determination, and equity) and offer concrete guidelines for researchers and practitioners.

Accurate Prediction of Momentary Cognition From Intensive Longitudinal Data.

BACKGROUND: Deficits in cognitive performance are implicated in the development and maintenance of psychopathology. Emerging evidence further suggests that within-person fluctuations in cognitive performance may represent sensitive early markers of neuropsychiatric decline. Incorporating routine cognitive assessments into standard clinical care-to identify between-person differences and monitor within-person fluctuations-has the potential to improve diagnostic screening and treatment planning. In support of these goals, it is critical to understand to what extent cognitive performance varies under routine, remote assessment conditions (i.e., momentary cognition) in relation to a wide range of possible predictors. METHODS: Using data-driven, high-dimensional methods, we ranked strong predictors of momentary cognition and evaluated out-of-sample predictive accuracy. Our approach leveraged innovations in digital technology, including ambulatory assessment of cognition and behavior 1) at scale (n = 122 participants, n = 94 females), 2) in naturalistic environments, and 3) within an intensive longitudinal study design (mean = 25.5 assessments/participant). RESULTS: Reaction time (R2 > 0.70) and accuracy (0.56 >R2 > 0.35) were strongly predicted by age, between-person differences in mean performance, and time of day. Effects of self-reported, intraindividual fluctuations in environmental (e.g., noise) and internal (e.g., stress) states were also observed. CONCLUSIONS: Our results provide robust estimates of effect size to characterize sources of cognitive variability, to support the identification of optimal windows for psychosocial interventions, and to possibly inform clinical evaluation under remote neuropsychological assessment conditions.

Personalized Prediction of Behaviors and Experiences: An Idiographic Person-Situation Test.

A longstanding goal of psychology is to predict the things that people do and feel, but tools to accurately predict future behaviors and experiences remain elusive. In the present study, we used intensive longitudinal data (N = 104 college-age adults at a midwestern university; total assessments = 5,971) and three machine-learning approaches to investigate the degree to which three future behaviors and experiences-loneliness, procrastination, and studying-could be predicted from past psychological (i.e., personality and affective states), situational (i.e., objective situations and psychological situation cues), and time (i.e., trends, diurnal cycles, time of day, and day of the week) phenomena from an idiographic, person-specific perspective. Rather than pitting persons against situations, such an approach allows psychological phenomena, situations, and time to jointly predict future behaviors and experiences. We found (a) a striking degree of prediction accuracy across participants, (b) that a majority of participants' future behaviors are predicted by both person and situation features, and (c) that the most important features vary greatly across people.

A mega-analysis of personality prediction: Robustness and boundary conditions.

Decades of studies identify personality traits as prospectively associated with life outcomes. However, previous investigations of personality characteristic-outcome associations have not taken a principled approach to covariate use or other sampling strategies to ensure the robustness of personality-outcome associations. The result is that it is unclear (a) whether personality characteristics are associated with important outcomes after accounting for a range of background variables, (b) for whom and when personality-outcome associations hold, and (c) that background variables are most important to account for. The present study examines the robustness and boundary conditions of personality-outcome associations using prospective Big Five associations with 14 health, social, education/work, and societal outcomes across eight different person- and study-level moderators using individual participant data from 171,395 individuals across 10 longitudinal panel studies in a mega-analytic framework. Robustness and boundary conditions were systematically tested using two approaches: propensity score matching and specification curve analysis. Three findings emerged: First, personality characteristics remain robustly associated with later life outcomes. Second, the effects generalize, as there are few moderators of personality-outcome associations. Third, robustness was differential across covariate choice in nearly half of the tested models, with the inclusion or exclusion of some of these flipping the direction of association. In summary, personality characteristics are robustly associated with later life outcomes with few moderated associations. However, researchers still need to be careful in their choices of covariates. We discuss how these findings can inform studies of personality-outcome associations, as well as recommendations for covariate inclusion. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2022 APA, all rights reserved).

Detecting Idiographic Personality Change.

Personality changes across the lifespan, but strong evidence regarding the mechanisms responsible for personality change remains elusive. Studies of personality change and life events, for example, suggest that personality is difficult to change. But there are two key issues with assessing personality change. First, most change models optimize population-level, not individual-level, effects, which ignores heterogeneity in patterns of change. Second, optimizing change as mean-levels of self-reports fails to incorporate methods for assessing personality dynamics, such as using changes in variances of and correlations in multivariate time series data that often proceed changes in mean-levels, making variance change detection a promising technique for the study of change. Using a sample of N = 388 participants (total N = 21,790) assessed weekly over 60 weeks, we test a permutation-based approach for detecting individual-level personality changes in multivariate time series and compare the results to event-based methods for assessing change. We find that a non-trivial number of participants show change over the course of the year but that there was little association between these change points and life events they experienced. We conclude by highlighting the importance in idiographic and dynamic investigations of change.

Personality predictors of cognitive dispersion: A coordinated analysis of data from seven international studies of older adults.

OBJECTIVES: Dispersion in cognitive test performance within a single testing session is proposed as an early marker of poor brain health. Existing research, however, has not investigated factors that may explain individual differences in cognitive dispersion. We investigate the extent to which the Big Five personality traits are associated with cognitive dispersion in older adulthood. METHOD: To promote transparency and reliability, we applied preregistration and conceptual replication via coordinated analysis. Drawing data from seven longitudinal studies of aging (Ntotal = 33,581; Mage range = 56.4-71.2), cognitive dispersion scores were derived from cognitive test results. Independent linear regression models were fit in each study to examine personality traits as predictors of dispersion scores, adjusting for mean cognitive performance and sociodemographics (age, sex, education). Results from individual studies were synthesized using random effects meta-analyses. RESULTS: Synthesized results revealed that openness was positively associated with cognitive dispersion, 0.028, 95% CI [0.003, 0.054]. There was minimal evidence for associations between cognitive dispersion and the other personality traits in independent analyses or meta-analyses. Mean cognitive scores were negatively associated with cognitive dispersion across the majority of studies, while sociodemographic variables were not consistently associated with cognitive dispersion. CONCLUSION: Higher levels of openness were associated with greater cognitive dispersion across seven independent samples, indicating that individuals higher in openness had more dispersion across cognitive tests. Further research is needed to investigate mechanisms that may help to explain the link between openness and cognitive dispersion, as well as to identify additional individual factors, beyond personality traits, that may be associated with cognitive dispersion. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2022 APA, all rights reserved).

Do correctional facilities correct our youth?: Effects of incarceration and court-ordered community service on personality development.

Millions of individuals are currently incarcerated in the United States. However, little is known about the effects of incarceration on personality development, particularly during the critical life stage of adolescence. In a large longitudinal sample, adolescents and young adults (N = 7,736) regularly completed personality measures and assessments of court-ordered punishments over more than 10 years. Using propensity score weighting and multilevel growth curve modeling, we found that personality prospectively predicted the likelihood of incarceration and court-ordered community service. Specifically, individuals who were higher in sensation seeking, impulsivity, and depressive symptoms were more likely to be incarcerated-results for community service youth mostly mirrored these findings. Mixed evidence was found for patterns of trait change. Incarcerated, community service, and nonoffending youth were similar in several ways-all increased on sensation seeking and self-esteem and decreased on impulsivity over the 10-year period. However, between-person models found that incarcerated youth evidenced a greater decrease in depressive symptoms and a slower decrease in impulsivity, and youth assigned community service increased more quickly on sensation seeking than their nonoffending peers. Within-person analyses also suggested personality differences; for example, sensation seeking was lower after incarceration while impulsivity was higher compared with before. Overall, this work highlights that personality predicts incarceration and court-ordered community service in youth and that personality changes linked with these experiences do not have a uniformly "corrective" pattern of change, with few effects observed overall and some in seemingly unfavorable directions. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2021 APA, all rights reserved).

Using idiographic models to distinguish personality and psychopathology.

OBJECTIVE: While the overlap between personality and psychopathology is well documented, few studies examine how the two overlap at a lower, moment-to-moment level. We took an idiographic approach to examine personality and psychopathology processes at the individual level. Doing so offers a unique perspective by incorporating both dynamic time and structural analysis, two components that are traditionally examined separately when investigating the overlap between personality and psychopathology. METHOD: Two experience sample studies measured personality states and personality problems up to four-times a day over a two-week period (Study 1 N = 349, observations = 11,124; Study 2 N = 161, observations = 8,261). RESULTS: For some, personality states and personality problems are deeply intertwined, mirroring existing between-person findings. But for others the two are separate, indicating it is possible to separate personality (states) from a person's problems. Between-person differences in levels of depression had no association with the idiographic structure, indicating that between-person constructs operate separately from within-person processes. Finally, situations that are more likely to bring out personality problems did not alter the association between personality states and personality problems. CONCLUSIONS: This method provides a novel conceptualization of personality-psychopathology overlap, bringing the focus beyond mostly static, between-person models to more dynamic, individual-level models.

Maintaining Sense of Purpose Following Health Adversity in Older Adulthood: A Propensity Score Matching Examination.

OBJECTIVES: Research has demonstrated sense of purpose predicts better health in older adulthood. However, work is limited with respect to understanding how experiencing a health event or illness diagnosis impacts older adults' sense of purpose. METHOD: The current study employed a propensity score matching approach to compare older adults who did or did not experience an adverse health event on changes in sense of purpose across 3 waves of the Health and Retirement Study. Sense of purpose was assessed at each wave, and changes were compared between people who did versus did not experience one of 7 diagnoses and health events. RESULTS: When propensity score matching was employed, no differences in trajectories of change for sense of purpose were found with respect to all 7 events. Individual differences in trajectories, however, were evidenced across groups. DISCUSSION: The current findings suggest that even when health events impact older adults' physical functioning or place limitations on their activity, they may hold little ramifications for their sense of purpose. Future research should consider this potential for resilience, focusing on how adults compensate for losses.

Feasibility and utility of idiographic models in the clinic: A pilot study.

AbstractIntroduction: Idiographic, or individual-level, methodology has been touted for its potential clinical utility. Empirically modeling relationships between symptoms for a single individual may offer both the client and therapist information that is useful for case conceptualization and treatment planning. However, few studies have investigated the feasibility and utility of integrating idiographic models in a clinical setting.Methods: Clients (n = 12) completed ecological momentary assessment regarding psychological symptoms five times per day for three weeks. Clients also generated predictions about the associative and directed relationships in their networks. Graphical vector autoregression was used to generate contemporaneous and directed networks from each client's data, and both clients and therapists completed self-report questionnaires regarding the feasibility and utility of these methods.Results: Results indicated that the idiographic model structures varied widely across participants and differed markedly from the client's own predictions. Clients found the models useful, whereas their therapists demonstrated a more tempered response.Discussion: These results echo previous findings suggesting that clients are willing to complete intensive data collection and are interested in the output, whereas therapists may be less open to idiographic methods. We provide recommendations for future implementation of personalized models in clinical settings.

Personality Development Beyond the Mean: Do Life Events Shape Personality Variability, Structure, and Ipsative Continuity?

OBJECTIVES: Life experiences are thought to prompt changes in personality. However, existing studies find few replicable mean-level changes in personality following life events. The focus on mean-level change may obscure other types of personality change that are not routinely studied in the context of life events. These are variability in response, structural, and ipsative change. METHODS: The current proposal examines whether major life events (e.g., divorce and job loss) affect these 3 understudied types of personality trait change using 3 waves of Big Five trait data in a large-scale, representative longitudinal study (German Socioeconomic Panel Study, N = 16,368). Structural equation models compare those who had an event to their prior self and a control group who did not experience the event. RESULTS: Life events were found to have mostly null or small effects on variability in response, structural, and ipsative change. Across 2 types of tests for variability in response, few replications occurred. The only consistent effect across 3 types of change was for mental health events, which served to increase variance in all Big Five traits and increase consistency in ipsative profiles. DISCUSSION: Life events tend not to affect these novel metrics of personality trait change. The one exception of mental health events is consistent with previous literature on mean-level change. Overall, life events do not appear to by major catalysts of personality change, regardless of how change is defined.

Consistency and change in idiographic personality: A longitudinal ESM network study.

The study of personality development primarily focuses on between-person, nomothetic assessments of personality using assessments of personality traits. An alternative approach uses individual, idiographic personality assessment, defining personality in reference to one's self rather than to others. Nomothetic approaches to personality development identify high levels of consistency in personality, even over decades. But the developmental pattern of idiographic personality is unclear, partially due to difficulties in assessing personality idiographically. We examine a number of traditional and novel idiographic modeling techniques using 2 years of ESM data from the Personality and Interpersonal Roles Study (PAIRS; N = 372 participants, total assessments N = 17,715). We computed idiographic lagged (lag 1 autoregressive) and contemporaneous (concurrent) graphical VAR models, as well as several other idiographic models, for each subject at the individual level at both waves, which are represented as networks. The utility and interpretation of these newer idiographic personality models at an individual level is demonstrated by using two example subjects. Across all participants, idiographic personality models were heterogeneous in structure, indicating the value of an idiographic approach. Contemporaneous, but not lagged, idiographic models were consistent over time. Despite normative levels of consistency, both types of idiographic models exhibited a great range of individual differences in consistency where some people were completely stable across two years whereas others were very unlike their former selves. In sum, we demonstrate that novel idiographic modeling techniques provide a useful tool to address questions of personality dynamics that were not possible with more traditional idiographic assessments. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2020 APA, all rights reserved).

Preregistration Is Hard, And Worthwhile.

Preregistration clarifies the distinction between planned and unplanned research by reducing unnoticed flexibility. This improves credibility of findings and calibration of uncertainty. However, making decisions before conducting analyses requires practice. During report writing, respecting both what was planned and what actually happened requires good judgment and humility in making claims.

A Clinician's Primer for Idiographic Research: Considerations and Recommendations.

Theorists and clinicians have long noted the need for idiographic (i.e., individual-level) designs within clinical psychology. Results from idiographic work may provide a possible resolution of the therapist's dilemma-the problem of treating an individual using information gathered via group-level research. Due to advances in data collection and time series methodology, there has been increasing interest in using idiographic designs to answer clinical questions. Although time series methods have been well-studied outside the field of clinical psychology, there is limited direction on how clinicians can use such models to inform their clinical practice. In this primer, we collate decades of published and word-of-mouth information on idiographic designs, measurement, and modeling. We aim to provide an initial guide on the theoretical and practical considerations that we urge interested clinicians to consider before conducting idiographic work of their own.