Carriage of antimicrobial-resistant Enterobacterales among pregnant women and newborns in Amhara, Ethiopia.

OBJECTIVES: Infections are one of the most common causes of neonatal mortality, and maternal colonization has been associated with neonatal infection. In this study, we sought to quantify carriage prevalence of extended-spectrum-beta-lactamase (ESBL) -producing and carbapenem-resistant Enterobacterales (CRE) among pregnant women and their neonates and to characterize risk factors for carriage in rural Amhara, Ethiopia. METHODS: We conducted a prospective cohort study nested in the Birhan field site. We collected rectal and vaginal samples from 211 pregnant women in their third trimester and/or during labor/delivery and perirectal or stool samples from 159 of their neonates in the first week of life. RESULTS: We found that carriage of ESBL-producing organisms was fairly common (women: 22.3%, 95% CI: 16.8-28.5; neonates: 24.5%, 95% CI: 18.1-32.0), while carriage of CRE (women: 0.9%, 95% CI: 0.1-3.4; neonates: 2.5%, 95% CI: 0.7-6.3) was rare. Neonates whose mothers tested positive for ESBL-producing organisms were nearly twice as likely to also test positive for ESBL-producing organisms (38.7% vs 21.1%, P-value = 0.06). Carriage of ESBL-producing organisms was also associated with Woreda (district) of sample collection and recent antibiotic use. CONCLUSION: Understanding carriage patterns of potential pathogens and antibiotic susceptibility among pregnant women and newborns will inform local, data-driven recommendations to prevent and treat neonatal infections.

Long-term monitoring of SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence and variants in Ethiopia provides prediction for immunity and cross-immunity.

Under-reporting of COVID-19 and the limited information about circulating SARS-CoV-2 variants remain major challenges for many African countries. We analyzed SARS-CoV-2 infection dynamics in Addis Ababa and Jimma, Ethiopia, focusing on reinfection, immunity, and vaccination effects. We conducted an antibody serology study spanning August 2020 to July 2022 with five rounds of data collection across a population of 4723, sequenced PCR-test positive samples, used available test positivity rates, and constructed two mathematical models integrating this data. A multivariant model explores variant dynamics identifying wildtype, alpha, delta, and omicron BA.4/5 as key variants in the study population, and cross-immunity between variants, revealing risk reductions between 24% and 69%. An antibody-level model predicts slow decay leading to sustained high antibody levels. Retrospectively, increased early vaccination might have substantially reduced infections during the delta and omicron waves in the considered group of individuals, though further vaccination now seems less impactful.

Colonisation of hospital surfaces from low- and middle-income countries by extended spectrum ß-lactamase- and carbapenemase-producing bacteria.

Hospital surfaces can harbour bacterial pathogens, which may disseminate and cause nosocomial infections, contributing towards mortality in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). During the BARNARDS study, hospital surfaces from neonatal wards were sampled to assess the degree of environmental surface and patient care equipment colonisation by Gram-negative bacteria (GNB) carrying antibiotic resistance genes (ARGs). Here, we perform PCR screening for extended-spectrum ß-lactamases (blaCTX-M-15) and carbapenemases (blaNDM, blaOXA-48-like and blaKPC), MALDI-TOF MS identification of GNB carrying ARGs, and further analysis by whole genome sequencing of bacterial isolates. We determine presence of consistently dominant clones and their relatedness to strains causing neonatal sepsis. Higher prevalence of carbapenemases is observed in Pakistan, Bangladesh, and Ethiopia, compared to other countries, and are mostly found in surfaces near the sink drain. Klebsiella pneumoniae, Enterobacter hormaechei, Acinetobacter baumannii, Serratia marcescens and Leclercia adecarboxylata are dominant; ST15 K. pneumoniae is identified from the same ward on multiple occasions suggesting clonal persistence within the same environment, and is found to be identical to isolates causing neonatal sepsis in Pakistan over similar time periods. Our data suggests persistence of dominant clones across multiple time points, highlighting the need for assessment of Infection Prevention and Control guidelines.

Utilization of third-trimester fetal transcerebellar diameter measurement for gestational age estimation: a comparative study using Bland-Altman analysis.

BACKGROUND: Several studies show that gestational age estimation during the third trimester of pregnancy using fetal transcerebellar diameter is superior to that measured using fetal biometry (biparietal diameter, head circumference, abdominal circumference, and femur diaphysis length). However, the conclusion of the studies stemmed from findings of correlation and regression statistical tests, which are not the recommended statistical analysis methods for comparing the values of 1 variable as measured by 2 different methods. OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to compare the accuracy of gestational age estimation using transcerebellar diameter to that using fetal biometry during the third trimester of pregnancy using Bland-Altman statistical analysis. STUDY DESIGN: This was a cross-sectional study on pregnant women who presented for routine antenatal care follow-up in the third trimester of pregnancy (28-41 weeks of gestation) at St. Paul's Hospital Millennium Medical College (Ethiopia) between November 1, 2020, and February 28, 2021. Data were collected prospectively using a structured questionnaire on the Open Data Kit. The primary outcome of our study was the mean bias of gestational age estimation (error in estimating gestational age) using transcerebellar diameter and composite fetal biometry (composite gestational age). Data were analyzed using Stata (version 15; StataCorp, College Station, TX). Simple descriptive analysis, Bland-Altman analysis, and the Kendall τa discordance measurement were performed as appropriate. The mean bias (error) and limits of agreement were used to present the significance of the finding. RESULTS: A total of 104 pregnant women in the third trimester were included in the study. The mean error (bias) when transcerebellar diameter was used to estimate the gestational age was 0.65 weeks vs a bias of 1.1 weeks using composite biometry, compared with the gold standard method from crown-lump length (in both cases). The calculated estimated limit of agreement was narrower in the case of transcerebellar diameter than in the case of composite fetal biometry (-3.56 to 2.25 vs -4.73 to 2.53). The Kendall τa discordance measurement revealed that gestational age estimations using composite biometry and crown-lump length were 51% to 70%, respectively, more likely to agree than disagree and that gestational age estimations using transcerebellar diameter and crown-lump length were 62% to 77%, respectively, more likely to agree than to disagree (P≤.001). CONCLUSION: Gestational age estimation using transcerebellar diameter is more accurate than gestational age estimation using composite gestational age (biparietal diameter, head circumference, femur diaphysis length, and abdominal circumference). Transcerebellar diameter should be used to date third-trimester pregnancies with unknown gestational age (unknown last normal menstrual period with no early ultrasound milestone).

Preeclampsia prevention: a survey study on knowledge and practice among prenatal care providers in Ethiopia.

BACKGROUND: Knowledge and practice gaps among providers have been cited as factors behind the underuse of aspirin for preeclampsia prevention globally. OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to determine the knowledge and practice levels of prenatal care providers at a national tertiary referral hospital in Ethiopia and its catchment health institutions. STUDY DESIGN: This was a cross-sectional survey on the knowledge and practice of preeclampsia prevention through aspirin prophylaxis among prenatal care providers at St. Paul's Hospital Millennium Medical College (Ethiopia) and its catchment health institutions. Data were collected prospectively using a structured questionnaire on ODK (Get ODK Inc, San Diego, CA). The primary objective of our study was to determine the knowledge and practice levels among prenatal care providers. Data were analyzed using SPSS software (version 23; IBM, Chicago, IL). Simple descriptive analyses were performed to analyze the data. Proportions and percentages were used to present the results. RESULTS: A total of 92 prenatal care providers working at 17 health institutions were approached, and 80 of them agreed to participate in the study, constituting a response rate of 87%. The mean scores of knowledge and practice of preeclampsia prevention using aspirin were 42.90 (±0.13) and 45.8 (±0.07), respectively. Most of the providers had poor knowledge (score of <50%) and poor practice (score of <50%). Among the 80 prenatal care providers, only 19 (23.8%) had good knowledge, and only 29 (36.3%) had good practice. More than half of the respondents (49/80 [61.3%]) mentioned "lack of national guidelines for use of aspirin in pregnancy" as the main factor that affected their practice of aspirin prophylaxis for preeclampsia prevention in pregnant women. Among the resources used as a reference for the practice of aspirin prophylaxis for preeclampsia prevention, International Federation of Gynecology and Obstetrics or World Health Organization guidelines (45/80 [56.3%]) were the most frequently used resources, followed by American College of Obstetricians and Gynecologists guidelines (36/80 [45.0%]) and clinical judgment (36/80 [45.0%]). CONCLUSION: Our results support previous reports of significant knowledge-to-practice gaps in the use of aspirin prophylaxis for preeclampsia prevention among prenatal care providers. Moreover, the results underscore the need for immediate action in narrowing this gap among providers by availing practical national guidelines for preeclampsia prevention and in-service trainings.

Prevalence, Incidence, and Reversal Pattern of Childhood Stunting From Birth to Age 2 Years in Ethiopia.

Importance: Although there has been a reduction in stunting (low-height-for-age and low-length-for-age), a proxy of malnutrition, the prevalence of malnutrition in Ethiopia is still high. Child growth patterns and estimates of stunting are needed to increase awareness and resources to improve the potential for recovery. Objective: To estimate the prevalence, incidence, and reversal of stunting among children aged 0 to 24 months. Design, Setting, and Participants: This population-based cohort study of the Birhan Maternal and Child Health cohort in North Shewa Zone, Amhara, Ethiopia, was conducted between December 2018 and November 2020. Eligible participants included children aged 0 to 24 months who were enrolled during the study period and had their length measured at least once. Data analysis occurred from Month Year to Month Year. Main Outcomes and Measures: The primary outcome of this study was stunting, defined as length-for-age z score (LAZ) at least 2 SDs below the mean. Z scores were also used to determine the prevalence, incidence, and reversal of stunting at each key time point. Growth velocity was determined in centimeters per month between key time points and compared with global World Health Organization (WHO) standards for the same time periods. Heterogeneity was addressed by excluding outliers in sensitivity analyses using modeled growth trajectories for each child. Results: A total of 4354 children were enrolled, out of which 3674 (84.4%; 1786 [48.7%] female) had their length measured at least once and were included in this study. The median population-level length was consistently below WHO growth standards from birth to 2 years of age. The observed prevalence of stunting was highest by 2 years of age at 57.4% (95% CI, 54.8%-9 60.0%). Incidence of stunting increased over time and reached 51.0% (95% CI, 45.3%-56.6%) between ages 12 and 24 months. Reversal was 63.5% (95% CI, 54.8%-71.4%) by age 6 months and 45.2% (95% CI, 36.0%-54.8%) by age 2 years. Growth velocity point estimate differences were slowest compared with WHO standards during the neonatal period (-1.4 cm/month for girls and -1.6 cm/month for boys). There was substantial heterogeneity in anthropometric measurements. Conclusions and Relevance: The evidence from this cohort study highlights a chronically malnourished population with much of the burden associated with growth faltering during the neonatal periods as well as after 6 months of age. To end all forms of malnutrition, growth faltering in populations such as that in young children in Amhara, Ethiopia, needs to be addressed.

Missed opportunity for aspirin prophylaxis for preeclampsia prevention: a cross-sectional study from Sub-Saharan Africa.

BACKGROUND: Recent studies showed that aspirin for preeclampsia prevention is underused despite its effectiveness in preventing preeclampsia among patients with moderate and high risk factors. Little is known about this issue in the Sub-Saharan setting, including Ethiopia. OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to determine the missed opportunity for aspirin prophylaxis among candidates for this preeclampsia preventive intervention at a national tertiary referral hospital in Ethiopia. STUDY DESIGN: This was a cross-sectional study on pregnant women who had preeclampsia and who were managed at the St. Paul's Hospital Millennium Medical College (Ethiopia) over a 6-month period (April 1-September 30, 2023). Data were collected prospectively using a structured questionnaire. The primary outcome was the proportion of women who had an indication for aspirin prophylaxis for preeclampsia prevention but were not given the opportunity (missed opportunity for aspirin) among all pregnant preeclampsia patients presenting to our hospital. Secondary outcomes were adverse maternal and perinatal outcomes. Data were analyzed using SPSS version 23. Descriptive statistics were employed to analyze the data. Proportions and percentages were used to present the results. RESULTS: A total of 427 pregnant women with preeclampsia were screened for inclusion and 32 of them were excluded based on the study criteria. Among the 395 pregnant women with preeclampsia who were included in the final analysis, 195 (50.6%) had an indication for aspirin prophylaxis for the prevention of preeclampsia. The mean systolic and diastolic blood pressure measurements at presentation were 153.8±12.8 and 100.6±8.5 mm Hg, respectively. Most patients had proteinuria (51.7% of the participants had a urine test-strip protein level of +2, whereas 18.5% [74/395] had a urine test-strip protein level of +1 and 10.9% had 24-hour urine protein levels in the preeclampsia range). Among the women who had an indication for aspirin prophylaxis, only 1.1% received aspirin (the missed opportunity for aspirin prophylaxis for preeclampsia prevention was 98.9%). The perinatal morality rate was 11.9%, whereas the neonatal intensive care unit admission rate was 20.5%. The rate of a low Apgar score at 5 minutes was 8.9%. Eight mothers (2.1%) developed hemolysis, elevated liver enzymes, and low platelet count syndrome, whereas another 3 (0.8%) mothers developed a pulmonary edema. CONCLUSION: In this study, the missed opportunity for administration of aspirin prophylaxis for the prevention of preeclampsia was high although more than half of the study subjects were candidates for this preventive intervention. Preeclampsia was also associated with higher rates of adverse perinatal outcomes and serious maternal morbidity.

Characteristics and outcomes of pregnant women hospitalized with severe maternal outcomes in eastern Ethiopia: Results from the Ethiopian Obstetric Surveillance System study.

OBJECTIVE: The aim of the present study was to identify facility-based incidence of severe obstetric complications through a newly established obstetric surveillance system in eastern Ethiopia. METHODS: Monthly registration of obstetric hemorrhage, eclampsia, uterine rupture, severe anemia and sepsis was introduced in 13 maternity units in eastern Ethiopia. At each hospital, a designated clinician reported details of women admitted during pregnancy, childbirth or within 42 days of termination of pregnancy from April 01, 2021 to March 31, 2022 developing any of these conditions. Detailed data on sociodemographic characteristics, obstetric complications and status at discharge were collected by trained research assistants. RESULTS: Among 38 782 maternities during the study period, 2043 (5.3%) women had any of the five conditions. Seventy women died, representing a case fatality rate of 3.4%. The three leading reasons for admission were obstetric hemorrhage (972; 47.6%), severe anemia (727; 35.6%), and eclampsia (438; 21.4%). The majority of the maternal deaths were from obstetric hemorrhage (27/70; 38.6%) followed by eclampsia (17/70; 24.3%). CONCLUSION: Obstetric hemorrhage, severe anemia and eclampsia were the leading causes of severe obstetric complications in eastern Ethiopia. Almost one in 29 women admitted with obstetric complications died. Audit of quality of care is indicated to design tailored interventions to improve maternal survival and obstetric complications.

Antenatal care coverage in a low-resource setting: Estimations from the Birhan Cohort.

Antenatal care (ANC) coverage estimates commonly rely on self-reported data, which may carry biases. Leveraging prospectively collected longitudinal data from the Birhan field site and its pregnancy and birth cohort, the Birhan Cohort, this study aimed to estimate the coverage of ANC, minimizing assumptions and biases due to self-reported information and describing retention patterns in ANC in rural Amhara, Ethiopia. The study population were women enrolled and followed during pregnancy between December 2018 and April 2020. ANC visits were measured by prospective facility chart abstraction and self-report at enrollment. The primary study outcomes were the total number of ANC visits attended during pregnancy and the coverage of at least one, four, or eight ANC visits. Additionally, we estimated ANC retention patterns. We included 2069 women, of which 150 (7.2%) women enrolled <13 weeks of gestation with complete prospective facility reporting. Among these 150 women, ANC coverage of at least one visit was 97.3%, whereas coverage of four visits or more was 34.0%. Among all women, coverage of one ANC visit was 92.3%, while coverage of four or more visits was 28.8%. No women were found to have attended eight or more ANC visits. On retention in care, 70.3% of participants who had an ANC visit between weeks 28 and <36 of gestation did not return for a subsequent visit. Despite the high proportion of pregnant women who accessed ANC at least once in our study area, the coverage of four visits remains low. Further efforts are needed to enhance access to more ANC visits, retain women in care, and adhere to the most recent Ethiopian National ANC guideline of at least eight ANC visits. It is essential to identify the factors that lead a large proportion of women to discontinue ANC follow-up.

A randomized controlled trial of sequential vs simultaneous use of Foley balloon catheter and oxytocin for induction of labor in nulliparous pregnant women.

BACKGROUND: Although recent evidence suggests the simultaneous approach use of oxytocin for induction of labor in nullipara, there is limited data from low-income settings that support this. OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to determine whether induction of labor with simultaneous use of oxytocin and a Foley balloon catheter decreases the induction of labor to delivery interval in nulliparous women, compared with sequential use of a Foley balloon catheter followed by oxytocin. STUDY DESIGN: This was a randomized controlled trial of nulliparous women with singleton pregnancies presenting for induction of labor at >28 weeks of gestation at St. Paul's Hospital Millennium Medical College (Addis Ababa, Ethiopia). The participants were randomly assigned to either the simultaneous group (the use of oxytocin and a Foley balloon catheter for induction of labor) or the sequential group (overnight intracervical Foley balloon catheter placement followed by the use of oxytocin the next morning). The primary outcome was induction of labor to delivery interval. Comparisons between the groups were made using the Student t test or Wilcoxon rank-sum test and chi-square test on Stata (version 15; StataCorp LLC, College Station, TX). This study is registered with the Pan African Clinical Trials Registry (identifier: PACTR201709002509200). RESULTS: From November 2019 to March 2020, a total of 140 women were randomly assigned to the simultaneous group (70 women) or the sequential group (70 women). The median oxytocin initiation to delivery intervals were 6.09 hours (range, 4.03-10.7) in the sequential group and 8.1 hours (range, 4.7-11.6) in the simultaneous group (P=.46). The mean Foley balloon catheter insertion to delivery intervals were 16.09±5.7 hours in the sequential group and 8.06±4.2 hours in the simultaneous group (P<.001). Cesarean delivery rate, composite neonatal outcomes, and chorioamnionitis were not different between the 2 groups. CONCLUSION: In nulliparous pregnant women, induction of labor using the simultaneous approach did not shorten the oxytocin initiation to delivery interval compared with the sequential approach. Moreover, both approaches showed no difference in the rates of adverse maternal and neonatal outcomes.

Role of male partner in women's fertility decision and family planning utilization in four regional states of Ethiopia: A mixed-method study.

OBJECTIVE: To determine the role of male partner involvement in fertility decision-making and intention to use contraceptives by women in four regional states of Ethiopia. METHODS: A mixed-method quantitative-qualitative cross-sectional study was conducted among 2891 women of reproductive age in four emerging regions (Benishangul-Gumuz, Gambela, Afar, and Somali) of Ethiopia. Key informant interview, in-depth interview, and focus group discussion were performed for qualitative data extraction. Simple descriptive statistics were used to analyze quantitative data, and frequency, means, and proportions were used to present the results. Qualitative data were analyzed. RESULTS: Approximately half of the women (1519/2891, 52.5%) discussed contraceptive methods with their partners. Most women did not have the freedom to make independent decisions on fertility preference, with the highest being in the Afar region (376/643, 58.5%). In all regions, the male partner was the dominant decision-maker behind the intention to start using or continue using family planning methods by the woman. Better educational status of male partners and a good attitude towards use of family planning by the woman were associated with contraceptive use by the women. CONCLUSIONS: Male partners play a predominant role in fertility preferences and decisions on family planning use by women.

Setting a research agenda to advance maternal, newborn, and child health in Ethiopia: An adapted CHNRI prioritization exercise.

Background: Critical to the improvement of maternal, newborn, and child health (MNCH) in Ethiopia - where 14 000 mothers die from pregnancy-, childbirth-, or postpartum-related complications each year - is high-quality research and its effective translation into policy and practice. While Ethiopia has rapidly expanded the number of institutions that train and conduct MNCH research, the absence of a shared research agenda inhibits a coordinated approach to inform critical MNCH policy needs. The HaSET Maternal and Child Health Research Program (MCHRP) conducted a mixed methods formative assessment and prioritization exercise to guide investments in future MNCH research in Ethiopia. Methods: We adapted the Child Health and Nutrition Research Initiative (CHNRI) method, soliciting 56 priority research questions via key informant interviews. Through an online survey, experts scored these on their ability to generate new, actionable evidence that could inform more effective and equitable MNCH programs in Ethiopia. At a workshop in Addis Ababa, experts scored the questions by answerability and ethics, usefulness, disease burden reduction, and impact on equity. Research priority scores were calculated for both the online survey and workshop scoring and averaged to attain a ranked priority list. We validated and contextualized the results by conducting consensus-building discussions with MNCH experts and two community workshops. In total, approximately 100 participants were involved. Results: Average research priority scores ranged from 58.4 to 83.7 out of 100.0. The top identified research priorities speak to critical needs in the Ethiopian context: to improve population coverage of proven interventions like integrated community case management (ICCM), family integrated newborn care, and kangaroo mother care (KMC); to better understand the determinants of outcomes like home deliveries, immunization drop-out, and antenatal and postpartum care-seeking; and to strengthen health system and workforce capabilities. Conclusions: This exercise expanded on the CHNRI methodology by comparing prioritization across different audiences, formats, and criteria. Agreement between both scoring rounds and consensus-building discussions was strong, demonstrating the reliability of the CHNRI method. By sharing this research priority list broadly among researchers, practitioners, and donors, we aim to improve coordinated MNCH evidence generation and translation into policy in Ethiopia.

Development of Prediction Models for Antenatal Care Attendance in Amhara Region, Ethiopia.

Importance: Antenatal care prevents maternal and neonatal deaths and improves birth outcomes. There is a lack of predictive models to identify pregnant women who are at high risk of failing to attend antenatal care in low-resource settings. Objective: To develop a series of predictive models to identify women who are at high risk of failing to attend antenatal care in a rural setting in Ethiopia. Design, Setting, and Participants: This prognostic study used data from the Birhan Health and Demographic Surveillance System and its associated pregnancy and child cohort. The study was conducted at the Birhan field site, North Shewa zone, Ethiopia, a platform for community- and facility-based research and training, with a focus on maternal and child health. Participants included women enrolled during pregnancy in the pregnancy and child cohort between December 2018 and March 2020, who were followed-up in home and facility visits. Data were analyzed from April to December 2022. Exposures: A wide range of sociodemographic, economic, medical, environmental, and pregnancy-related factors were considered as potential predictors. The selection of potential predictors was guided by literature review and expert knowledge. Main Outcomes and Measures: The outcome of interest was failing to attend at least 1 antenatal care visit during pregnancy. Prediction models were developed using logistic regression with regularization via the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator and ensemble decision trees and assessed using the area under the receiving operator characteristic curve (AUC). Results: The study sample included 2195 participants (mean [SD] age, 26.8 [6.1] years; mean [SD] gestational age at enrolment, 25.5 [8.8] weeks). A total of 582 women (26.5%) failed to attend antenatal care during cohort follow-up. The AUC was 0.61 (95% CI, 0.58-0.64) for the regularized logistic regression model at conception, with higher values for models predicting at weeks 13 (AUC, 0.68; 95% CI, 0.66-0.71) and 24 (AUC, 0.66; 95% CI, 0.64-0.69). AUC values were similar with slightly higher performance for the ensembles of decision trees (conception: AUC, 0.62; 95% CI, 0.59-0.65; 13 weeks: AUC, 0.70; 95% CI, 0.67-0.72; 24 weeks: AUC, 0.67; 95% CI, 0.64-0.69). Conclusions and Relevance: This prognostic study presents a series of prediction models for antenatal care attendance with modest performance. The developed models may be useful to identify women at high risk of missing their antenatal care visits to target interventions to improve attendance rates. This study opens the possibility to develop and validate easy-to-use tools to project health-related behaviors in settings with scarce resources.

Development of risk prediction models for preterm delivery in a rural setting in Ethiopia.

Background: Preterm birth complications are the leading causes of death among children under five years. However, the inability to accurately identify pregnancies at high risk of preterm delivery is a key practical challenge, especially in resource-constrained settings with limited availability of biomarkers assessment. Methods: We evaluated whether risk of preterm delivery can be predicted using available data from a pregnancy and birth cohort in Amhara region, Ethiopia. All participants were enrolled in the cohort between December 2018 and March 2020. The study outcome was preterm delivery, defined as any delivery occurring before week 37 of gestation regardless of vital status of the foetus or neonate. A range of sociodemographic, clinical, environmental, and pregnancy-related factors were considered as potential inputs. We used Cox and accelerated failure time models, alongside decision tree ensembles to predict risk of preterm delivery. We estimated model discrimination using the area-under-the-curve (AUC) and simulated the conditional distributions of cervical length (CL) and foetal fibronectin (FFN) to ascertain whether they could improve model performance. Results: We included 2493 pregnancies; among them, 138 women were censored due to loss-to-follow-up before delivery. Overall, predictive performance of models was poor. The AUC was highest for the tree ensemble classifier (0.60, 95% confidence interval = 0.57-0.63). When models were calibrated so that 90% of women who experienced a preterm delivery were classified as high risk, at least 75% of those classified as high risk did not experience the outcome. The simulation of CL and FFN distributions did not significantly improve models' performance. Conclusions: Prediction of preterm delivery remains a major challenge. In resource-limited settings, predicting high-risk deliveries would not only save lives, but also inform resource allocation. It may not be possible to accurately predict risk of preterm delivery without investing in novel technologies to identify genetic factors, immunological biomarkers, or the expression of specific proteins.

Establishing the Ethiopian Obstetric Surveillance System for Monitoring Maternal Outcomes in Eastern Ethiopia: A Pilot Study.

BACKGROUND: Although the majority of maternal deaths and complications occur in low-resource settings, almost all existing strong registration and confidential enquiry systems are found in high-resource settings. We developed and piloted the Ethiopian Obstetric Surveillance System (EthOSS), based on the successful United Kingdom Obstetric Surveillance System (UKOSS) methodology, in 3 regions in Ethiopia to improve ongoing surveillance and tracking of maternal morbidities and deaths, as well as confidential enquiry, compared to the currently used maternal death surveillance and response program in Ethiopia. METHODS: We launched the EthOSS monthly case notification system in 13 hospitals in eastern Ethiopia in April 2021. Study participants included women admitted to the hospitals from April to September 2021 with major adverse obstetric conditions during pregnancy, childbirth, or within 42 days of termination of pregnancy. Designated clinicians at the hospitals used a simple online system to report the number of cases and maternal deaths monthly to the EthOSS team. We present findings on the incidence and case fatality rates for adverse conditions included in the EthOSS. RESULTS: Over the 6-month pilot period, 904 women with at least 1 EthOSS condition were included in the study, of whom 10 died (case fatality rate, 1.1%). Almost half (46.6%, 421/904) sustained major obstetric hemorrhage, 38.7% (350/904) severe anemia, 29.5% (267/904) eclampsia, 8.8% (80/904) sepsis, and 2.2% (20/904) uterine rupture. To enable care improvement alongside surveillance, the local committee received training on confidential enquiry into maternal deaths from internal and external experts. CONCLUSIONS: In this facility-based project, data on severe adverse obstetric conditions were captured through voluntary reporting by clinicians. Further analysis is essential to assess the robustness of these data, and confidential enquiry into maternal deaths for specific cases is planned to investigate the appropriateness of care.

Impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on utilisation of facility-based essential maternal and child health services from March to August 2020 compared with pre-pandemic March-August 2019: a mixed-methods study in North Shewa Zone, Ethiopia.

INTRODUCTION: Health systems are often weakened by public health emergencies that make it harder to access health services. We aimed to assess maternal, newborn and child health (MNCH) service utilisation during the first 6 months of the COVID-19 pandemic compared with prior to the pandemic. METHODS: We conducted a mixed study design in eight health facilities that are part of the Birhan field site in Amhara, Ethiopia and compared the trend of service utilisation in the first 6 months of COVID-19 with the corresponding time and data points of the preceding year. RESULT: New family planning visits (43.2 to 28.5/month, p=0.014) and sick under 5 child visits (225.0 to 139.8/month, p=0.007) declined over the first 6 months of the pandemic compared with the same period in the preceding year. Antenatal (208.9 to 181.7/month, p=0.433) and postnatal care (26.6 to 19.8/month, p=0.155) visits, facility delivery rates (90.7 to 84.2/month, p=0.776), and family planning visits (313.3 to 273.4/month, p=0.415) declined, although this did not reach statistical significance. Routine immunisation visits (37.0 to 36.8/month, p=0.982) for children were maintained. Interviews with healthcare providers and clients highlighted several barriers to service utilisation during COVID-19, including fear of disease transmission, economic hardship, and transport service disruptions and restrictions. Enablers of service utilisation included communities' decreased fear of COVID-19 and awareness-raising activities. CONCLUSION: We observed a decline in essential MNCH services particularly in sick children and new family planning visits. To improve the resiliency of fragile health systems, resources are needed to continuously monitor service utilisation and clients' evolving concerns during public health emergencies.

The Quality of Informed Consent in Caesarean Section at a Tertiary Hospital in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia.

Purpose: The absence of high-quality and timely informed consent creates a barrier between the health-care provider and the patient that reinforces a negative view of the healthcare system, deters utilization of health-care services and increases malpractice lawsuits. This research aimed to assess the quality of informed consent in cesarean section (CS) at a large tertiary care center in Ethiopia. Patients and Methods: An institutional cross-sectional study was conducted on 288 women who underwent planned or emergency CS. A structured questionnaire for respondents with standard indicators was developed as per the recommendations of the Royal College of Surgeons for the evaluation of the completeness of the informed consent document on the medical records. Results: The median (IQR) age of the participants was 28 (25.0-32.0) years and 203 (70.5%) has undergone emergency CS. More than half of the respondents 172 (59.7%) were unaware of who would perform the surgery and only 50 (17.4%) of respondents stated they were informed of complications of the CS. A total of 157 (56.3%) of responses fulfilled the criteria for adequate subjective informed consent with an affirmative response while only 109 (37.9%) of responses fulfilled the criteria for adequate objective informed consent. Only educational status of the patient was associated with subjective adequacy of informed consent with those who have some formal education having 2.05 times odds of having adequate subjective consent as compared to those with no formal education. Conclusion: In this study, we have found that women undergoing CS receive inadequate informed consent. This inadequate informed consent occurs across planned and emergency CS. The results highlight the need for better consent process to increase patient awareness and promote patient-centered-care.

Characterisation of Staphylococci species from neonatal blood cultures in low- and middle-income countries.

BACKGROUND: In low- and middle-income countries (LMIC) Staphylococcus aureus is regarded as one of the leading bacterial causes of neonatal sepsis, however there is limited knowledge on the species diversity and antimicrobial resistance caused by Gram-positive bacteria (GPB). METHODS: We characterised GPB isolates from neonatal blood cultures from LMICs in Africa (Ethiopia, Nigeria, Rwanda, and South Africa) and South-Asia (Bangladesh and Pakistan) between 2015-2017. We determined minimum inhibitory concentrations and performed whole genome sequencing (WGS) on Staphylococci isolates recovered and clinical data collected related to the onset of sepsis and the outcome of the neonate up to 60 days of age. RESULTS: From the isolates recovered from blood cultures, Staphylococci species were most frequently identified. Out of 100 S. aureus isolates sequenced, 18 different sequence types (ST) were found which unveiled two small epidemiological clusters caused by methicillin resistant S. aureus (MRSA) in Pakistan (ST8) and South Africa (ST5), both with high mortality (n = 6/17). One-third of S. aureus was MRSA, with methicillin resistance also detected in Staphylococcus epidermidis, Staphylococcus haemolyticus and Mammaliicoccus sciuri. Through additional WGS analysis we report a cluster of M. sciuri in Pakistan identified between July-November 2017. CONCLUSIONS: In total we identified 14 different GPB bacterial species, however Staphylococci was dominant. These findings highlight the need of a prospective genomic epidemiology study to comprehensively assess the true burden of GPB neonatal sepsis focusing specifically on mechanisms of resistance and virulence across species and in relation to neonatal outcome.

Estimates of Stillbirths, Neonatal Mortality, and Medically Vulnerable Live Births in Amhara, Ethiopia.

Importance: Data on birth outcomes and early mortality are scarce, especially in settings with limited resources. Total births, both stillbirths and live births, are often not counted, yet such data are critical to allocate resources and target interventions to improve survival. Objective: To estimate the prevalence of stillbirths, neonatal deaths, and medically vulnerable phenotypes, such as preterm births, small-for-gestational-age (SGA), large-for-gestational-age (LGA), and low-birth-weight (LBW) births, in a setting where these key indicators remain largely unknown. Design, Setting, and Participants: This prospective pregnancy cohort study of women and their newborns was conducted between December 12, 2018, and November 5, 2020. The study was conducted in North Shewa Zone, Amhara, Ethiopia. Data were analyzed from July 2021 to May 2022. Main Outcomes and Measures: Pregnancy status, gestational age, birth weight, and vital status were measured to estimate the prevalence of stillbirths, live births, and medically vulnerable live births (ie, preterm, SGA, LGA, and LBW births). For mortality outcomes, the prevalence of neonatal (overall, early, and late) and perinatal mortality were estimated. Results: Among the 2801 enrolled women, the median (IQR) age at conception was 26.5 (22.2-31.0) years, and the median (IQR) gestational age at enrollment was 24 (17-31) weeks. Of the 2628 women (93.8%) with outcome data, 101 pregnancies (3.8%) resulted in an early loss (<28 gestational weeks). Among the 2527 remaining pregnant women, there were 2518 births between 28 and less than 46 weeks' gestation; 2459 (97.7%; 95% CI, 97.0%-98.2%) were live births and 59 (2.3%; 95% CI, 1.8%-3.0%) were stillbirths. Many newborns (41.7%) were born preterm, SGA, LGA, or LBW. The estimated prevalence was 15.1% (95% CI, 13.7%-16.6%) for preterm births, 23.1% (95% CI, 21.3%-25.1%) for SGA births, 10.6% (95% CI, 9.3%-12.1%) for LGA births, and 9.4% (95% CI, 8.2%-10.8%) for LBW births. Among live births, the overall prevalence of neonatal mortality was 3.1% (95% CI, 2.5%-3.9%); mortality was higher among preterm births (7.2%; 95% CI, 4.9%-10.4%), LBW births (12.2%; 95% CI, 8.2%-17.7%), and SGA births (4.1%; 95% CI, 2.6%-6.5%). The prevalence of early neonatal mortality was almost twice as high as the prevalence of late neonatal mortality. The perinatal mortality prevalence was 4.3% (95% CI, 3.6%-5.2%), with a 1.2:1 ratio of stillbirths to first-week deaths. Conclusions and Relevance: These findings have important implications for newborn health and survival. For policy makers and programmers, accurate data on key indicators of neonatal health provide information for resource allocation and to evaluate progress. For researchers, the findings underlie the importance for further research to develop and deliver interventions that improve health outcomes.