Spatial distribution of zero-dose children in Ethiopia: evidence for a targeted intervention from a large-scale cross-sectional evaluation survey.

Background: Ethiopia is the fourth leading contributor to the global total of zero-dose children (those who lack the first dose of diphtheria-tetanus-pertussis containing vaccine) and has substantial regional variations in zero-dose children. This study explored the spatial pattern of zero-dose children aged 12-35 months in Ethiopia. Methods: A survey was conducted in pastoralist regions, developing regions, newly-established regions, conflict-affected areas, underserved urban populations, hard-to-reach areas, internally displaced populations, and refugees. Spatial autocorrelation was measured using the Global Moran'sIstatistic. Getis-Ord Gi* statistics was applied to calculate the spatial variability of the high and low prevalence rates of zero-dose children. The spatial interpolation technique was also applied to estimate unknown values that fall between known values. Inverse distance weighting interpolation method was used to predict the risk of zero-dose children. ArcGIS version 10.8 was used for the spatial analysis. Results: A total of 3,646 children aged 12-35 months were included in the study. The spatial distribution of zero-dose children in Ethiopia was non-random (Global Moran'sI = 0.178971, p < 0.001). According to the hotspot analysis, western, eastern and northern parts of Somali and western and central parts of Afar regions had the highest load of zero-dose children (hotspot areas) followed by the Northeastern part of Amhara and southeastern part of Oromia regions. On the other hand, Southern Nations, Nationalities, and Peoples, Sidama, and the Eastern part of the Southwest Ethiopia peoples regions were identified as cold spot areas. The spatial interpolation analysis corresponded with the hotspot analysis results where western and central parts of Afar and western, eastern and northern parts of Somali regions were identified as high-risk areas for zero-dose children. However, Addis Ababa, Dire Dawa, Harari, Southern Nations, Nationalities, and Peoples, Sidama, Southwest Ethiopia Peoples, and parts of Oromia were found to be low-risk areas for zero-dose children. Conclusion: The spatial analysis identified that zero-dose children had a significant spatial variation across the study areas. High clusters of zero-dose children were detected in Afar and Somali regions. Implementing routine and mop-up vaccination campaigns in the identified hotspot areas will help Ethiopia to improve coverage and reduce immunization inequalities.

Perspectives on the Performance of the Ethiopian Vaccine Supply Chain and Logistics System after the Last Mile Delivery Initiative: A Phenomenological Study.

Uninterrupted availability of vaccines requires a robust vaccine supply chain and logistics system (VSCLS). With special focus on remote and underserved settings, we assessed the reach and bottlenecks of the Ethiopian VSCLS after the initiation of the last mile transition. We explored the perspectives of key stakeholders using a qualitative phenomenological study. More than 300 in-depth interviews and 22 focus group discussions were conducted. The study was sequentially implemented over two phases to understand the bottlenecks at national and regional (Phase I) and lower (Phase II) levels. After the transition, the Ethiopian Pharmaceutical Supply Service started supplying vaccines directly to health facilities, bypassing intermediaries. The transition reduced supply hiccups and enabled the health sector to focus on its core activities. However, in remote areas, achievements were modest, and health facilities have been receiving supplies indirectly through district health offices. By design, health posts collect vaccines from health centers, causing demotivation of health extension workers and frequent closure of health posts. Challenges of the VSCLS include artificial shortage due to ill forecasting and failure to request needs on time, lack of functional refrigerators secondary to scarcity of skilled technicians and spare parts, and absence of dependable backup power at health centers. Vaccine wastages owing to poor forecasts, negligence, and cold chain problems are common. The VSCLS has not yet sustainably embraced digital logistics solutions. The system is overstrained by frequent outbreak responses and introduction of new vaccines. We concluded that the transition has improved the VSCLS, but the reach remains suboptimal in remote areas.

In-depth reasons for the high proportion of zero-dose children in underserved populations of Ethiopia: Results from a qualitative study.

Increasing attention is being given to reach children who fail to receive routine vaccinations, commonly designated as zero-dose children. A comprehensive understanding of the supply- and demand-side barriers is essential to inform zero-dose strategies in high-burden countries and achieve global immunization goals. This qualitative study aimed to identify the barriers for reaching zero-dose and under-immunized children and what and explore gender affects access to vaccination services for children in Ethiopia. Data was collected between March-June 2022 using key informant interviews and focus group discussions with participants in underserved settings. The high proportion of zero-dose children was correlated with inadequate information being provided by health workers, irregularities in service provision, suboptimal staff motivation, high staff turnover, closure and inaccessibility of health facilities, lack of functional health posts, service provision limited to selected days or hours, and gender norms viewing females as responsible for childcare. Demand-side barriers included religious beliefs, cultural norms, fear of vaccine side effects, and lack of awareness and sustained interventions. Recommendations to increase vaccination coverage include strengthening health systems such as services integration, human resources capacity building, increasing incentives for health staff, integrating vaccination services, bolstering the EPI budget especially from the government side, and supporting reliable outreach and static immunization services. Additionally, immunization policy should be revised to include gender considerations including male engagement strategies to improve uptake of immunization services.

High prevalence of zero-dose children in underserved and special setting populations in Ethiopia using a generalize estimating equation and concentration index analysis.

BACKGROUND: Globally, according to the World Health Organization (WHO) 2023 report, more than 14.3 million children in low- and middle-income countries, primarily in Africa and South-East Asia, are not receiving any vaccinations. Ethiopia is one of the top ten countries contributing to the global number of zero-dose children. OBJECTIVE: To estimate the prevalence of zero-dose children and associated factors in underserved populations of Ethiopia. METHODS: A cross-sectional vaccine coverage survey was conducted in June 2022. The study participants were mothers of children aged 12-35 months. Data were collected using the CommCare application system and later analysed using Stata version 17. Vaccination coverage was estimated using a weighted analysis approach. A generalized estimating equation model was fitted to determine the predictors of zero-dose children. An adjusted odds ratio (AOR) with 95% confidence interval (CI) and a p-value of 0.05 or less was considered statistically significant. RESULTS: The overall prevalence of zero-dose children in the study settings was 33.7% (95% CI: 34.9%, 75.7%). Developing and pastoralist regions, internally displaced peoples, newly formed regions, and conflict-affected areas had the highest prevalence of zero-dose children. Wealth index (poorest [AOR = 2.78; 95% CI: 1.70, 4.53], poorer [AOR = 1.96; 95% CI: 1.02, 3.77]), single marital status [AOR = 2.4; 95% CI: 1.7, 3.3], and maternal age (15-24 years) [AOR = 1.2; 95% CI: 1.1, 1.3] were identified as key determinant factors of zero-dose children in the study settings. Additional factors included fewer than four Antenatal care visits (ANC) [AOR = 1.3; 95% CI: 1.2, 1.4], not receiving Postnatal Care (PNC) services [AOR = 2.1; 95% CI: 1.5, 3.0], unavailability of health facilities within the village [AOR = 3.7; 95% CI: 2.6, 5.4], women-headed household [AOR = 1.3; 95% CI:1.02, 1.7], low gender empowerment [AOR = 1.6; 95% CI: 1.3, 2.1], and medium gender empowerment [AOR = 1.7; 95% CI: 1.2, 2.5]. CONCLUSION: In the study settings, the prevalence of zero-dose children is very high. Poor economic status, disempowerment of women, being unmarried, young maternal age, and underutilizing antenatal or post-natal services are the important predictors. Therefore, it is recommended to target tailored integrated and context-specific service delivery approach. Moreover, extend immunization sessions opening hours during the evening/weekend in the city administrations to meet parents' needs.

Oral and Inactivated Polio Vaccine Coverage and Determinants of Coverage Inequality Among the Most At-Risk Populations in Ethiopia.

Combining oral (OPV) and inactivated (IPV) poliovirus vaccines prevents importation of poliovirus and emergence of circulating vaccine-derived poliovirus. We measured the coverage with IPV and third dose of OPV (OPV-3) and identified determinants of coverage inequality in the most at-risk populations in Ethiopia. A national survey representing 10 partly overlapping underserved populations-pastoralists, conflict-affected areas, urban slums, hard-to-reach settings, developing regions, newly formed regions, internally displaced people (IDPs), refugees, and districts neighboring international and interregional boundaries-was conducted among children 12 to 35 months old (N = 3,646). Socioeconomic inequality was measured using the concentration index (CIX) and decomposed using a regression-based approach. One-third (95% CI: 31.5-34.0%) of the children received OPV-3 and IPV. The dual coverage was below 50% in developing regions (19.2%), pastoralists (22.0%), IDPs (22.3%), districts neighboring international (24.1%) and interregional (33.3%) boundaries, refugees (27.0%), conflict-affected areas (29.3%), newly formed regions (33.5%), and hard-to-reach areas (38.9%). Conversely, coverage was better in urban slums (78%). Children from poorest households, living in villages that do not have health posts, and having limited health facility access had increased odds of not receiving the vaccines. Low paternal education, dissatisfaction with vaccination service, fear of vaccine side effects, living in female-headed households, having employed and less empowered mothers were also risk factors. IPV-OPV3 coverage favored the rich (CIX = -0.161, P < 0.001), and causes of inequality were: inaccessibility of health facilities (13.3%), dissatisfaction with vaccination service (12.8%), and maternal (4.9%) and paternal (4.9%) illiteracy. Polio vaccination coverage in the most at-risk populations in Ethiopia is suboptimal, threatening the polio eradication initiative.