Application of Machine Learning Prediction of Individual SARS-CoV-2 Vaccination and Infection Status to the French Serosurveillance Survey From March 2020 to 2022: Cross-Sectional Study.

BACKGROUND: The seroprevalence of SARS-CoV-2 infection in the French population was estimated with a representative, repeated cross-sectional survey based on residual sera from routine blood testing. These data contained no information on infection or vaccination status, thus limiting the ability to detail changes observed in the immunity level of the population over time. OBJECTIVE: Our aim is to predict the infected or vaccinated status of individuals in the French serosurveillance survey based only on the results of serological assays. Reference data on longitudinal serological profiles of seronegative, infected, and vaccinated individuals from another French cohort were used to build the predictive model. METHODS: A model of individual vaccination or infection status with respect to SARS-CoV-2 obtained from a machine learning procedure was proposed based on 3 complementary serological assays. This model was applied to the French nationwide serosurveillance survey from March 2020 to March 2022 to estimate the proportions of the population that were negative, infected, vaccinated, or infected and vaccinated. RESULTS: From February 2021 to March 2022, the estimated percentage of infected and unvaccinated individuals in France increased from 7.5% to 16.8%. During this period, the estimated percentage increased from 3.6% to 45.2% for vaccinated and uninfected individuals and from 2.1% to 29.1% for vaccinated and infected individuals. The decrease in the seronegative population can be largely attributed to vaccination. CONCLUSIONS: Combining results from the serosurveillance survey with more complete data from another longitudinal cohort completes the information retrieved from serosurveillance while keeping its protocol simple and easy to implement.

Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza A(H5N1) Clade 2.3.4.4b Virus in Domestic Cat, France, 2022.

We detected highly pathogenic avian influenza A(H5N1) clade 2.3.4.4b virus in a domestic cat that lived near a duck farm infected by a closely related virus in France during December 2022. Enhanced surveillance of symptomatic domestic carnivores in contact with infected birds is recommended to prevent further spread to mammals and humans.

Impact of the Omicron variant on SARS-CoV-2 reinfections in France, March 2021 to February 2022.

Since the first reports in summer 2020, SARS-CoV-2 reinfections have raised concerns about the immunogenicity of the virus, which will affect SARS-CoV-2 epidemiology and possibly the burden of COVID-19 on our societies in the future. This study provides data on the frequency and characteristics of possible reinfections, using the French national COVID-19 testing database. The Omicron variant had a large impact on the frequency of possible reinfections in France, which represented 3.8% of all confirmed COVID-19 cases since December 2021.

Health and economic impact of seasonal influenza mass vaccination strategies in European settings: A mathematical modelling and cost-effectiveness analysis.

INTRODUCTION: Despite seasonal influenza vaccination programmes in most countries targeting individuals aged ≥ 65 (or ≥ 55) years and high risk-groups, significant disease burden remains. We explored the impact and cost-effectiveness of 27 vaccination programmes targeting the elderly and/or children in eight European settings (n = 205.8 million). METHODS: We used an age-structured dynamic-transmission model to infer age- and (sub-)type-specific seasonal influenza virus infections calibrated to England, France, Ireland, Navarra, The Netherlands, Portugal, Scotland, and Spain between 2010/11 and 2017/18. The base-case vaccination scenario consisted of non-adjuvanted, non-high dose trivalent vaccines (TV) and no universal paediatric vaccination. We explored i) moving the elderly to "improved" (i.e., adjuvanted or high-dose) trivalent vaccines (iTV) or non-adjuvanted non-high-dose quadrivalent vaccines (QV); ii) adopting mass paediatric vaccination with TV or QV; and iii) combining the elderly and paediatric strategies. We estimated setting-specific costs and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) gained from the healthcare perspective, and discounted QALYs at 3.0%. RESULTS: In the elderly, the estimated numbers of infection per 100,000 population are reduced by a median of 261.5 (range across settings: 154.4, 475.7) when moving the elderly to iTV and by 150.8 (77.6, 262.3) when moving them to QV. Through indirect protection, adopting mass paediatric programmes with 25% uptake achieves similar reductions in the elderly of 233.6 using TV (range: 58.9, 425.6) or 266.5 using QV (65.7, 477.9), with substantial health gains from averted infections across ages. At €35,000/QALY gained, moving the elderly to iTV plus adopting mass paediatric QV programmes provides the highest mean net benefits and probabilities of being cost-effective in all settings and paediatric coverage levels. CONCLUSION: Given the direct and indirect protection, and depending on the vaccine prices, model results support a combination of having moved the elderly to an improved vaccine and adopting universal paediatric vaccination programmes across the European settings.

Prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 antibodies in France: results from nationwide serological surveillance.

Assessment of the cumulative incidence of SARS-CoV-2 infections is critical for monitoring the course and extent of the COVID-19 epidemic. Here, we report estimated seroprevalence in the French population and the proportion of infected individuals who developed neutralising antibodies at three points throughout the first epidemic wave. Testing 11,000 residual specimens for anti-SARS-CoV-2 IgG and neutralising antibodies, we find nationwide seroprevalence of 0.41% (95% CI: 0.05-0.88) mid-March, 4.14% (95% CI: 3.31-4.99) mid-April and 4.93% (95% CI: 4.02-5.89) mid-May 2020. Approximately 70% of seropositive individuals have detectable neutralising antibodies. Infection fatality rate is 0.84% (95% CI: 0.70-1.03) and increases exponentially with age. These results confirm that the nationwide lockdown substantially curbed transmission and that the vast majority of the French population remained susceptible to SARS-CoV-2 in May 2020. Our study shows the progression of the first epidemic wave and provides a framework to inform the ongoing public health response as viral transmission continues globally.

Estimation of influenza-attributable burden in primary care from season 2014/2015 to 2018/2019, France.

Influenza viruses cause seasonal epidemics whose intensity varies according to the circulating virus type and subtype. We aim to estimate influenza-like illness (ILI) incidence attributable to influenza viruses in France from October 2014 to May 2019. Physicians participating in the French Sentinelles network reported the number of patients with ILI seen in consultation and performed nasopharyngeal swabs in a sample of these patients. The swabs were tested by RT-PCR for the presence of influenza viruses. These clinical and virological data were combined to estimate ILI incidence attributable to influenza viruses by subtypes and age groups. Influenza incidence rates over seasons ranged from 1.9 (95% CI, 1.9; 2.0) to 3.4% (95% CI, 3.2; 3.6) of the population. Each season, more than half of ILI cases were attributable to influenza. Children under 15 years were the most affected, with influenza incidence rates ranging from 3.0 (95% CI, 2.8;3.3) to 5.7% (95% CI, 5.3;6.1). Co-circulation of several (sub)types of influenza viruses was observed each year, except in 2016/2017 where A(H3N2) viruses accounted for 98.0% of the influenza cases. Weekly ILI incidences attributable to each influenza virus (sub)type were mostly synchronized with ILI incidence, except in 2014/2015 and 2017/2018, where incidence attributable to type B viruses peaked few weeks later. The burden of medically attended influenza among patients with ILI is significant in France, varying considerably across years and age groups. These results show the importance of influenza surveillance in primary care combining clinical and virological data.

Impact of the lockdown on the burden of COVID-19 in outpatient care in France, spring 2020.

BACKGROUND: To limit the spread of SARS-CoV-2 several countries implemented measures to reduce the number of contacts such as a national lockdown. We estimated the impact of the first lockdown on the burden of COVID-19 in the community in France. METHODS: Physicians participating in the French Sentinelles network reported the number of patients with an acute respiratory infection (ARI) seen in consultation and performed nasopharyngeal swabs in a sample of these patients (first patient of the week). The swabs were tested by RT-PCR for the presence of SARS-CoV-2. Clinical and virological data were combined to estimate ARI incidence attributable to SARS-CoV-2 from 17 March to 10 May 2020. RESULTS: The incidence of ARI attributable to COVID-19 decreased after the second week of the lockdown period from 142 (95%CI [101; 183]) to 41 (95%CI [21; 60]) per 100,000 population. A decrease was observed in all areas in metropolitan France. The youngest age groups (<15-years-old) were least affected with a cumulated incidence estimated to 14 per 100,000 population during the study period. CONCLUSIONS: The data collected in primary care suggests that the first lockdown implemented in France during spring 2020 significantly reduced the incidence of acute respiratory infections including COVID-19 in France and limited the geographic spread of SARS-CoV-2.

Underdetection of cases of COVID-19 in France threatens epidemic control.

As countries in Europe gradually relaxed lockdown restrictions after the first wave, test-trace-isolate strategies became critical to maintain the incidence of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) at low levels1,2. Reviewing their shortcomings can provide elements to consider in light of the second wave that is currently underway in Europe. Here we estimate the rate of detection of symptomatic cases of COVID-19 in France after lockdown through the use of virological3 and participatory syndromic4 surveillance data coupled with mathematical transmission models calibrated to regional hospitalizations2. Our findings indicate that around 90,000 symptomatic infections, corresponding to 9 out 10 cases, were not ascertained by the surveillance system in the first 7 weeks after lockdown from 11 May to 28 June 2020, although the test positivity rate did not exceed the 5% recommendation of the World Health Organization (WHO)5. The median detection rate increased from 7% (95% confidence interval, 6-8%) to 38% (35-44%) over time, with large regional variations, owing to a strengthening of the system as well as a decrease in epidemic activity. According to participatory surveillance data, only 31% of individuals with COVID-19-like symptoms consulted a doctor in the study period. This suggests that large numbers of symptomatic cases of COVID-19 did not seek medical advice despite recommendations, as confirmed by serological studies6,7. Encouraging awareness and same-day healthcare-seeking behaviour of suspected cases of COVID-19 is critical to improve detection. However, the capacity of the system remained insufficient even at the low epidemic activity achieved after lockdown, and was predicted to deteriorate rapidly with increasing incidence of COVID-19 cases. Substantially more aggressive, targeted and efficient testing with easier access is required to act as a tool to control the COVID-19 pandemic. The testing strategy will be critical to enable partial lifting of the current restrictive measures in Europe and to avoid a third wave.

Innate and Adaptive Anti-SIV Responses in Macaque Semen: Implications for Infectivity and Risk of Transmission.

HIV-1 infection is transmitted primarily by sexual exposure, with semen being the principal contaminated fluid. However, HIV-specific immune response in semen has been understudied. We investigated specific parameters of the innate, cellular, and humoral immune response that may affect semen infectivity in macaques infected with SIVmac251. Serial semen levels of cytokines and chemokines, SIV-specific antibodies, neutralization, and FcγR-mediated functions and SIV-specific T-cell responses were assessed and compared to systemic responses across 53 cynomolgus macaques. SIV infection induced an overall inflammatory state in the semen. Several pro-inflammatory molecules correlated with SIV virus levels. Effector CD8+ T cells were expanded in semen upon infection. SIV-specific CD8+ T-cells that expressed multiple effector molecules (IFN-γ+MIP-1ß+TNF+/-) were induced in the semen of a subset of SIV-infected macaques, but this did not correlate with local viral control. SIV-specific IgG, commonly capable of engaging the FcγRIIIa receptor, was detected in most semen samples although this positively correlated with seminal viral load. Several inflammatory immune responses in semen develop in the context of higher levels of SIV seminal plasma viremia. These inflammatory immune responses could play a role in viral transmission and should be considered in the development of preventive and prophylactic vaccines.

High impact of COVID-19 in long-term care facilities, suggestion for monitoring in the EU/EEA, May 2020.

Residents in long-term care facilities (LTCF) are a vulnerable population group. Coronavirus disease (COVID-19)-related deaths in LTCF residents represent 30-60% of all COVID-19 deaths in many European countries. This situation demands that countries implement local and national testing, infection prevention and control, and monitoring programmes for COVID-19 in LTCF in order to identify clusters early, decrease the spread within and between facilities and reduce the size and severity of outbreaks.

First cases of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in the WHO European Region, 24 January to 21 February 2020.

In the WHO European Region, COVID-19 surveillance was implemented 27 January 2020. We detail the first European cases. As at 21 February, nine European countries reported 47 cases. Among 38 cases studied, 21 were linked to two clusters in Germany and France, 14 were infected in China. Median case age was 42 years; 25 were male. Late detection of the clusters' index cases delayed isolation of further local cases. As at 5 March, there were 4,250 cases.

First cases of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in France: surveillance, investigations and control measures, January 2020.

A novel coronavirus (severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2, SARS-CoV-2) causing a cluster of respiratory infections (coronavirus disease 2019, COVID-19) in Wuhan, China, was identified on 7 January 2020. The epidemic quickly disseminated from Wuhan and as at 12 February 2020, 45,179 cases have been confirmed in 25 countries, including 1,116 deaths. Strengthened surveillance was implemented in France on 10 January 2020 in order to identify imported cases early and prevent secondary transmission. Three categories of risk exposure and follow-up procedure were defined for contacts. Three cases of COVID-19 were confirmed on 24 January, the first cases in Europe. Contact tracing was immediately initiated. Five contacts were evaluated as at low risk of exposure and 18 at moderate/high risk. As at 12 February 2020, two cases have been discharged and the third one remains symptomatic with a persistent cough, and no secondary transmission has been identified. Effective collaboration between all parties involved in the surveillance and response to emerging threats is required to detect imported cases early and to implement adequate control measures.

Comparative Analysis of Eleven Healthcare-Associated Outbreaks of Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus (Mers-Cov) from 2015 to 2017.

Since its emergence in 2012, 2,260 cases and 803 deaths due to Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) have been reported to the World Health Organization. Most cases were due to transmission in healthcare settings, sometimes causing large outbreaks. We analyzed epidemiologic and clinical data of laboratory-confirmed MERS-CoV cases from eleven healthcare-associated outbreaks in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and the Republic of Korea between 2015-2017. We quantified key epidemiological differences between outbreaks. Twenty-five percent (n = 105/422) of MERS cases who acquired infection in a hospital setting were healthcare personnel. In multivariate analyses, age ≥65 (OR 4.8, 95%CI: 2.6-8.7) and the presence of underlying comorbidities (OR: 2.7, 95% CI: 1.3-5.7) were associated with increased mortality whereas working as healthcare personnel was protective (OR 0.07, 95% CI: 0.01-0.34). At the start of these outbreaks, the reproduction number ranged from 1.0 to 5.7; it dropped below 1 within 2 to 6 weeks. This study provides a comprehensive characterization of MERS HCA-outbreaks. Our results highlight heterogeneities in the epidemiological profile of healthcare-associated outbreaks. The limitations of our study stress the urgent need for standardized data collection for high-threat respiratory pathogens, such as MERS-CoV.

Nonhuman primate models for cell-associated simian immunodeficiency virus transmission: the need to better understand the complexity of HIV mucosal transmission.

Nonhuman primates are extensively used to assess strategies to prevent infection from sexual exposure to human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) and to study mechanisms of mucosal transmission. However, although semen represents one of the most important vehicles for the virus, the vast majority of preclinical challenge studies have used cell-free simian immunodeficiency virus (SIV) or simian/human immunodeficiency virus (SHIV) viral particles inoculated as diluted culture supernatants. Semen is a complex body fluid containing many factors that may facilitate or decrease HIV infectiousness. The virus in semen is present in different forms: as free virus particles or as cell-associated virus (ie, within infected leukocytes). Although cell-to-cell transmission of HIV is highly efficient, the role of cell-associated virus in semen has been surprisingly poorly investigated in nonhuman primate models. Mucosal exposure of macaques to cell-associated SIV by using infected peripheral blood mononuclear cells or spleen cells has been shown to be an efficient means of infection; however, it has yet to be shown that SIV- or SHIV-infected seminal leukocytes can transmit infection in vivo. Improvement of animal models to better recapitulate the complex microenvironment at portals of HIV entry is needed for testing candidate antiretrovirals, microbicides, and vaccines.

Semen CD4+ T cells and macrophages are productively infected at all stages of SIV infection in macaques.

The mucosal events of HIV transmission have been extensively studied, but the role of infected cells present in the genital and rectal secretions, and in the semen, in particular, remains a matter of debate. As a prerequisite to a thorough in vivo investigation of the early transmission events through infected cells, we characterized in detail by multi-parameter flow cytometry the changes in macaque seminal leukocytes during SIVmac251 infection, focusing on T cells, macrophages and dendritic cells. Using immunocytofluorescence targeting SIV proteins and real-time quantitative PCR targeting SIV DNA, we investigated the nature of the infected cells on sorted semen leukocytes from macaques at different stages of infection. Finally, we cocultured semen CD4(+) T cells and macrophages with a cell line permissive to SIV infection to assess their infectivity in vitro. We found that primary infection induced strong local inflammation, which was associated with an increase in the number of leukocytes in semen, both factors having the potential to favor cell-associated virus transmission. Semen CD4(+) T cells and macrophages were productively infected at all stages of infection and were infectious in vitro. Lymphocytes had a mucosal phenotype and expressed activation (CD69 & HLA-DR) and migration (CCR5, CXCR4, LFA-1) markers. CD69 expression was increased in semen T cells by SIV infection, at all stages of infection. Macrophages predominated at all stages and expressed CD4, CCR5, MAC-1 and LFA-1. Altogether, we demonstrated that semen contains the two major SIV-target cells (CD4+ T cells and macrophages). Both cell types can be productively infected at all stages of SIV infection and are endowed with markers that may facilitate transmission of infection during sexual exposure.

Captured retroviral envelope syncytin gene associated with the unique placental structure of higher ruminants.

Syncytins are envelope genes of retroviral origin that have been co-opted for a role in placentation and likely contribute to the remarkable diversity of placental structures. Independent capture events have been identified in primates, rodents, lagomorphs, and carnivores, where they are involved in the formation of a syncytium layer at the fetomaternal interface via trophoblast cell-cell fusion. We searched for similar genes within the suborder Ruminantia where the placenta lacks an extended syncytium layer but displays a heterologous cell-fusion process unique among eutherian mammals. An in silico search for intact envelope genes within the Bos taurus genome identified 18 candidates belonging to five endogenous retrovirus families, with one gene displaying both placenta-specific expression, as assessed by quantitative RT-PCR analyses of a large panel of tissues, and conservation in the Ovis aries genome. Both the bovine and ovine orthologs displayed fusogenic activity by conferring infectivity on retroviral pseudotypes and triggering cell-cell fusion. In situ hybridization of placenta sections revealed specific expression in the trophoblast binucleate cells, consistent with a role in the formation--by heterologous cell fusion with uterine cells--of the trinucleate cells of the cow and the syncytial plaques of the ewe. Finally, we show that this gene, which we named "Syncytin-Rum1," is conserved among 16 representatives of higher ruminants, with evidence for purifying selection and conservation of its fusogenic properties, over 30 millions years of evolution. These data argue for syncytins being a major driving force in the emergence and diversity of the placenta.

Ancestral capture of syncytin-Car1, a fusogenic endogenous retroviral envelope gene involved in placentation and conserved in Carnivora.

Syncytins are envelope protein genes of retroviral origin that have been captured for a function in placentation. Two such genes have already been identified in simians, two distinct, unrelated genes have been identified in Muridae, and a fifth gene has been identified in the rabbit. Here, we searched for similar genes in the Laurasiatheria clade, which diverged from Euarchontoglires--primates, rodents, and lagomorphs--shortly after mammalian radiation (100 Mya). In silico search for envelope protein genes with full-coding capacity within the dog and cat genomes identified several candidate genes, with one common to both species that displayed placenta-specific expression, which was revealed by RT-PCR analysis of a large panel of tissues. This gene belongs to a degenerate endogenous retroviral element, with precise proviral integration at a site common to dog and cat. Cloning of the gene for an ex vivo pseudotype assay showed fusogenicity on both dog and cat cells. In situ hybridization on placenta sections from both species showed specific expression at the level of the invasive fetal villi within the placental junctional zone, where trophoblast cells fuse into a syncytiotrophoblast layer to form the maternofetal interface. Finally, we show that the gene is conserved among a series of 26 Carnivora representatives, with evidence for purifying selection and conservation of fusogenic activity. The gene is not found in the Pholidota order and, therefore, it was captured before Carnivora radiation, between 60 and 85 Mya. This gene is the oldest syncytin gene identified to date, and it is the first in a new major clade of eutherian mammals.