Carpals and epiphyses of radius and ulna as age indicators using longitudinal data: a Bayesian approach.

The aim of this study is to develop a new formula for age estimation in a longitudinal study of a sample from the radiological collection of wrist bones of growing infants, children, and adolescents recorded at the Burlington Growth Centre. A sample of 82 individuals (43 boys and 39 girls), aged between 3 and 16 years, were analyzed with a total of 623 X-rays of left hand-wrist bones by measuring the area of carpal bones and epiphyses of the ulna and radius (Bo) and carpal area (Ca). The intra-class correlation coefficient (ICC) and its 95% confidence interval were used to evaluate intra-observer agreement. Hierarchical Bayesian calibration has been adopted to exceed the bias deriving from the classical regression approach used for age estimation in forensic disciplines, since it tends to overestimate or underestimate the age of the individuals. Calibration distributions of the dataset obtained by the evaluation of BoCa (the ratio of Bo and Ca) suggested mean absolute errors (MAE) of 1.07 and 1.34 years in boys and girls, respectively. The mean interquartile range (MIQR) was 1.7 and 2.42 years in boys and girls, respectively. The respective bias of the estimates was ßERR = - 0.025 and - 0.074. Furthermore, a correspondence between different BoCa values and estimated age with its standard deviation (SD) was calculated for boys and girls, respectively. In conclusion, the Bayesian calibration method appears to be suitable for assessing both age and its distribution in subadults, according to hand-wrist maturity. Furthermore, it can easily incorporate other age predictors, obtaining a distribution of the subjects with multivariate predictors.

Assessment of second (I2M) and third (I3M) molar indices for establishing 14 and 16 legal ages and validation of the Cameriere's I3M cut-off for 18 years old in Chilean population.

This retrospective cross-sectional study has two-fold aims: the first is to assess new cut-offs at the legal age thresholds (LATs) of 14 and 16 years old and the second is to validate the cut-off of third molar index I3M=0.08 for 18 years of age in Chilean people. Orthopantomographs from 822 Chilean children aged from 11 to 22 (472 girls and 350 boys) were analysed. For LAT of 14 years, cut-offs were found using the ROC curves singly for boys and girls. The cut-offs for boys were I2M=0.16 and I3M=0.73 while for girls we obtained I2M=0.10 and I3M=0.77. For LAT of 16 years we obtained the same cut-offs regardless of gender, which were 0.06 and 0.36 for I2M and I3M respectively. Concerning the validity of I3M cut-off for 18 years old in Chilean population, the proportion of correctly classified individuals was 83% and estimated post-test probability, PPV, was 93.2%, with a 95% confidence interval equals to 91.3%, 94.6%. Hence, the probability that a subject positive on the test was 18 years of age or older was 93.2%, confirming the validation of the I3M cut-off for Chilean population.

Accuracy of cut-off value by measurement of third molar index: Study of a Colombian sample.

The aim of this cross-sectional study was to test the accuracy of cut-off value of 0.08 by measurement of third molar index (I3M) in assessing legal adult age of 18 years in a sample of Colombian children and young adults. Digital orthopantomographs of 288 Colombian children and young adults (163 girls and 125 boys), aged between 13 and 22 years, were analysed. Concordance correlation coefficient (ρc) and κ statistics (Cohen's Kappa coefficient) showed that repeatability and reproducibility are high for both intra- and inter-observer error. κ statistics for intra- and inter-observer agreement in decision on adult or minor was 0.913 and 0.877, respectively. Age distribution gradually decreases as I3M increases in both girls and boys. For girls, the sensitivity test was 95.1% (95% CI 87.1%-95%) and specificity was 93.8% (95% CI 87.1%-98.8%). The proportion of correctly classified individuals was 95.1%. For boys, the sensitivity test was 91.7% (95% CI 85.1%-96.8%) and specificity was 90.6% (95% CI 82.1%-97.8%). The proportion of correctly classified individuals was 89.7%. The cut-off value of 0.08 is highly useful to determine if a subject is 18 years of age or older or not.