Fertility decline and gender bias in northern India.

Although it is widely acknowledged that the preference for sons is a barrier to a decline in fertility, considerable disagreement exists as to what actually happens to this preference when fertility declines in a region of low female autonomy. By analyzing the data from the National Family Health Survey (NFHS), we present evidence from northern India to show that the preference for sons is reduced when the ideal family size becomes small, even though it does not completely disappear. This finding appears to contradict trends in the juvenile sex ratio and the incidence of female feticide that suggest the intensification of gender bias. We argue that the anomaly is the result of a diffusion of prenatal sex-diagnostic techniques in regions where there is a large unmet demand for such methods. Using the NFHS data, we estimate that in northern India, girls currently constitute about 60% of the unwanted births and that the elimination of unwanted fertility has the potential to raise the sex ratio at birth to 130 boys per 100 girls.

Maternal mortality in India: an update.

This study presents estimates of maternal mortality for India from two indirect procedures, the sisterhood method and a regression method involving sex differentials in adult mortality, and compares them with estimates available from other sources. The sisterhood method is applied to the data collected in a human development survey that covered all rural areas of India in 1994, while the latter method is applied to the data on mortality and fertility rates from India's Sample Registration System. The level of maternal mortality for the early 1980s implied by the sisterhood method is found to be about 15 percent lower than the estimate for the same period derived from the method that uses the data on sex differentials in adult mortality. The estimate for the 1990s from the latter method is consistent, however, with the direct estimates available from the National Family Health Survey and the Sample Registration System. The study also discusses the socioeconomic differentials in maternal mortality implied by the sisterhood data, and spatial and temporal variations in maternal mortality derived from the regression method.

General growth balance method: A reformulation for populations open to migration.

This paper proposes a reformulation of the general growth balance method for estimating census and registration completeness so as to make it applicable even to populations that are affected by migration. It also discusses a new procedure of line fitting that could be useful in countries where the input data are severely affected by age misreporting. The method is applicable to countries where data on age distribution of the population are available for two points in time from either censuses or surveys. Following closely the original proposal of Brass, it involves adjusting the 'partial' birth rates for age-specific disturbances from growth and migration rates. Beyond correcting the death rates, the method is useful in inferring the relative completeness of the censuses, and in deriving a robust estimate of birth rate under certain conditions. The application of the method is illustrated using the example of the male population of the Indian state of Uttar Pradesh for the period 1981 to 1991.