Correction: Tracking the incidence and risk factors for SARS-CoV-2 infection using historical maternal booking serum samples.

[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0273966.].

Modelling hepatitis C infection acquired from blood transfusions in the UK between 1970 and 1991 for the Infected Blood Inquiry.

The Statistics Expert Group was convened at the request of the Infected Blood Inquiry to provide estimates of the number of infections and deaths from blood-borne infections including hepatitis B virus, human immunodeficiency virus, hepatitis C virus (HCV) and variant Creutzfeldt Jakob disease, as a direct result of contaminated blood and blood products administered in the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland (UK). In the absence of databases of HCV infections and related deaths for all nations of the UK, a statistical model was required to estimate the number of infections and subsequent deaths from HCV acquired from blood transfusions from January 1970 to August 1991. We present this statistical model in detail alongside the results of its application to each of the four nations in the UK. We estimated that 26 800 people (95% uncertainty interval 21 300-38 800) throughout the UK were chronically infected with HCV because of contaminated blood transfusions between January 1970 and August 1991. The number of deaths up to the end of 2019 that occurred as a result of this chronic infection is estimated to be 1820 (95% uncertainty interval 650-3320).

Rapid antigen testing in COVID-19 management for school-aged children: an observational study in Cheshire and Merseyside, UK.

BACKGROUND: Twice weekly lateral flow tests (LFTs) for secondary school children was UK Government policy from 8 March 2021. We evaluate use of LFTs (both supervised at test centres, and home test kits) in school-aged children in Cheshire and Merseyside. METHODS: We report (i) number of LFT positives (ii) proportion of LFT positive with confirmatory reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (PCR) test within 2 days, and (iii) agreement between LFT-positive and confirmatory PCR, and dependence of (i-iii) on COVID-19 prevalence. FINDINGS: 1 248 468 LFTs were taken by 211 255 12-18 years old, and 163 914 by 52 116 5-11 years old between 6 November 2020 and 31 July 2021. Five thousand three hundred and fourteen (2.5%) 12-18 years old and 1996 (3.8%) 5-11 years old returned LFT positives, with 3829 (72.1%) and 1535 (76.9%) confirmatory PCRs, and 3357 (87.7%) and 1383 (90.1%) confirmatory PCR-positives, respectively.Monthly proportions of LFT positive with PCR negative varied between 4.7% and 35.3% in 12-18 years old (corresponding proportion of all tests positive: 9.7% and 0.3%).Deprivation and non-White ethnicity were associated with reduced uptake of confirmatory PCR. INTERPRETATION: Substantial inequalities in confirmatory testing need more attention to avoid further disadvantage through education loss. When prevalence is low additional measures, including confirmatory testing, are needed. Local Directors of Public Health taking more control over schools testing may be needed. FUNDING: DHSC, MRC, NIHR, EPSRC.

Tracking the incidence and risk factors for SARS-CoV-2 infection using historical maternal booking serum samples.

The early transmission dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 in the UK are unknown but their investigation is critical to aid future pandemic planning. We tested over 11,000 anonymised, stored historic antenatal serum samples, given at two north-west London NHS trusts in 2019 and 2020, for total antibody to SARS-CoV-2 receptor binding domain (anti-RBD). Estimated prevalence of seroreactivity increased from 1% prior to mid-February 2020 to 17% in September 2020. Our results show higher prevalence of seroreactivity to SARS-CoV-2 in younger, non-white ethnicity, and more deprived groups. We found no significant interaction between the effects of ethnicity and deprivation. Derived from prevalence, the estimated incidence of seroreactivity reflects the trends observed in daily hospitalisations and deaths in London that followed 10 and 13 days later, respectively. We quantified community transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in London, which peaked in late March / early April 2020 with no evidence of community transmission until after January 2020. Our study was not able to determine the date of introduction of the SARS-CoV-2 virus but demonstrates the value of stored antenatal serum samples as a resource for serosurveillance during future outbreaks.

Study-design in pandemics: From surveillance and performance-evaluation to licensing and pharmacovigilance.

Andy Grieve, the first pharmaceutical statistician to be President of the Royal Statistical Society, practiced in the regulated world of drug development. With reduction in drug development costs as his motivation, Grieve advanced Bayesian methods for developing predictive methods for efficacy and toxicity - to be used as early as possible in the drug development process; and his presidential address exhorted statisticians to weigh-in wherever data are used to make decisions. Diagnostic tests for infectious diseases are less regulated than drugs and vaccines unless the blood supply is at risk. Unlike in the HIV and HCV pandemics of the late 20th century, even well-designed surveys linked to a volunteered biological sample (to be tested for SARS-CoV-2 antigen or antibodies) have had modest or low consent rates. Record-linkage, statistical design and reporting standards have seen triumph and tragedy. Among the triumphs are: Liverpool's insistence on dual testing (lateral flow device; polymerase chain reaction [PCR]) of some 6000 asymptomatic citizens who attended for SARS-CoV-2-screening; two tricky randomized controlled public-policy trials on daily contact testing for close contacts of index cases of SARS-CoV-2 infection versus self-isolation (with or without initial PCR); and among already-consented participants in surveillance, over 80% secondary consent for linkage to their health records, including the Immunization Management Service. Before the next pandemic we need to entrench better regulation of diagnostic tests, better informed consent (not via weblinks), better feedback to participants, and transparency about basic safety data.

Breast cancer incidence and survival in Scotland by socio-economic deprivation and tumour subtype.

BACKGROUND: Women from socio-economically deprived areas are less likely to develop and then to survive breast cancer (BC). Whether associations between deprivation and BC incidence and survival differ by tumour molecular subtypes and mode of detection in Scotland are unknown. METHODS: Data consisted of 62,378 women diagnosed with invasive BC between 2000 and 2016 in Scotland. Incidence rates and time trends were calculated for oestrogen receptor positive (ER+) and negative (ER-) tumours and stratified by the Scottish Index of Multiple Deprivation (SIMD) quintiles and screening status. SIMD is an area-based measure derived across seven domains: income, employment, education, health, access to services, crime and housing. We calculated adjusted hazard ratios (aHR [95% confidence intervals]) for BC death by immunohistochemical surrogates of molecular subtypes for the most versus the least deprived quintile. We adjusted for mode of detection and other confounders. RESULTS: In Scotland, screen-detected ER+tumour incidence increased over time, particularly in the least deprived quintile [Average Annual Percentage Change (AAPC) = 2.9% with 95% CI from 1.2 to 4.7]. No marked differences were observed for non-screen-detected ER+tumours or ER- tumours by deprivation. BC mortality was higher in the most compared to the least deprived quintile irrespective of ER status (aHR = 1.29 [1.18, 1.41] for ER+ and 1.27 [1.09, 1.47] for ER- tumours). However, deprivation was associated with significantly higher mortality for luminal A and HER2-enriched tumours (aHR = 1.46 [1.13, 1.88] and 2.10 [1.23, 3.59] respectively) but weaker associations for luminal B and TNBC tumours that were not statistically significant. CONCLUSIONS: Deprivation is associated with differential BC incidence trends for screen-detected ER+tumours and with higher mortality for select tumour subtypes. Future efforts should evaluate factors that might be associated with reduced survival in deprived populations and monitor progress stratified by tumour subtypes and mode of detection.

Medical research, data sharing, and properly informed consent.

When Sheila M. Bird agreed to participate in a Covid surveillance study, she did not realise her negative test result and personal details would be passed to NHS Test and Trace. Here, she calls for closer scrutiny of privacy policies by research ethics committees, and clearer communication with study participants.

Covid tests in secondary schools: A statistical cause célèbre.

Sheila Bird offers a personal account of the debate over rapid coronavirus screening in secondary schools, and the efforts to reinstate confirmatory PCR tests.

Quality of care for adult in-patients with malaria in a tertiary hospital in Uganda.

BACKGROUND: Prompt detection and appropriate treatment of malaria prevents severe disease and death. The quality of care for adult malaria in-patients is not well documented in sub-Saharan Africa, particularly in Uganda. The study sought to describe the patterns of malaria diagnosis and treatment among adult in-patients admitted to the medical and gynaecological wards of Uganda's 1790-bed Mulago National Referral Hospital from December 2013 to April 2014. METHODS: A prospective cohort of 762 consented in-patients aged ≥ 18 years was assembled. Proportions of in-patients who received preadmission and in-hospital anti-malarials, missed Day 1 dosing of hospital-initiated anti-malarials and/or had malaria microscopy done were determined. Multivariable logistic regression was used to identify risk-factors for missed Day 1 dosing of anti-malarials. RESULTS: One in five (19%, 146/762) in-patients had an admission or discharge malaria diagnosis or both; with median age of 29 years (IQR, 22-42 years). Microscopy was requested in 77% (108/141) of in-patients with an admission malaria diagnosis; results were available for 46% (50/108), of whom 42% (21/50) tested positive for Plasmodium falciparum malaria parasitaemia. Only 13% (11/83) of in-patients who received in-hospital injectable artesunate (AS) or quinine (Q) received follow-up oral artemether-lumefantrine (AL); 2 of 18 severe malaria cases received follow-up oral AL. Injectable AS only (47%, 47/100) was the most frequent hospital-initiated anti-malarial treatment followed by injectable Q only (23%, 23/100) amongst in-patients who received in-hospital anti-malarials. A quarter (25%, 25/100; 95% CI: 17-35%) of in-patients missed Day 1 dosing of hospital-initiated anti-malarials. Each additional admission diagnosis was more than two-fold likely to increase the odds of missed Day 1 dosing of in-hospital anti-malarials (aOR = 2.6, 95% CI: 1.52-4.56; P-value = 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: Half the malaria microscopy results were not available; yet, the rate of testing was high. The majority of in-patients initiated on injectable AS or Q did not receive the recommended follow-up oral AL. One in four in-patients delayed to initiate hospital anti-malarials by at least one calendar day. The hospital should encourage prompt availability of malaria test-results to promote the timely initiation and completion of anti-malarial treatment, thereby improving the quality of care for hospitalized malaria patients in Uganda.

Scotland's 2009-2015 methadone-prescription cohort: Quintiles for daily dose of prescribed methadone and risk of methadone-specific death.

AIMS: As methadone clients age, their drug-related death (DRD) risks increase, more than doubling at 45+ years for methadone-specific DRDs. METHODS: Using Community Health Index (CHI) numbers, mortality to 31 December 2015 was ascertained for 36 347 methadone-prescription clients in Scotland during 2009-2015. Cohort entry, quantity of prescribed methadone and daily dose (actual or recovered by effective, simple rules) were defined by clients' first CHI-identified methadone prescription after 30 June 2009 and used in proportional hazards analysis. As custodian of death records, National Records of Scotland identified non-DRDs from DRDs. Methadone-specific DRD means methadone was implicated but neither heroin nor buprenorphine. RESULTS: The cohort's 192 928 person-years included 1857 non-DRDs and 1323 DRDs (42%), 546 of which were methadone specific. Actual/recovered daily dose was available for 26 533 (73%) clients who experienced 420 methadone-specific DRDs. Top quintile for daily dose at first CHI-identified methadone prescription was >90 mg. Age 45+ years at cohort-entry (hazard ratio vs 25-34 years: 3.1, 95% confidence interval: 2.4-4.2), top quintile for baseline daily dose of prescribed methadone (vs 50-70 mg: 1.9, 1.1-3.1) and being female (1.3, 1.0-1.6) significantly increased clients' risk of methadone-specific DRD. CONCLUSION: Extra care is needed when methadone daily dose exceeds 90 mg. Females' higher risk for methadone-specific DRD is new and needs validation. Further analyses of prescribed daily dose linked to mortality for large cohorts of methadone clients are needed internationally, together with greater pharmacodynamic and pharmacokinetic understanding of methadone by age and sex. Balancing age-related risks is challenging for prescribers who manage chronic opiate dependency against additional uncertainty about the nature, strength and pharmacological characteristics of drugs from illegal markets.

Fatal accident inquiries into 83 deaths in Scottish prison custody: 2010-2013.

BACKGROUND: The only non-legal reference in Lord Cullen's Review of fatal accident inquiry (FAI) Legislation in Scotland (2009) was my audit of FAIs into 97 deaths in prison custody in Scotland, 1999-2003: recommending that waiting time from prisoner death to end of FAI should be less than 1 year for 90% of FAIs, and epidemiological rules for FAIs to have a written determination versus formal findings. AIMS: Audit of FAIs into 83 deaths in Scottish prison custody in the period 2010-2013. METHOD: Assessement of waiting times from prisoner death to end of FAI; dissemination of written determinations; self-inflicted death rate per 1000 prisoner-years; cause of natural deaths; and yellow card submissions. Detailed cross-checking was nec37essary between Scottish Prison Service and courts' websites and the Scottish Fatalities Investigation Unit. RESULTS: Of 83 FAIs into deaths in Scottish prison custody, 2010-2013, 37 (45%) were long-awaited (ongoing >2 years after the prisoner's death); 16 (19%, 95% CI 11-28%) beyond 3 years. Of 37 long-awaited FAIs, 27 made written determinations but only 12 of these (44%) were published. Self-inflicted deaths numbered 36: 1.1 per 1000 prisoner-years (95% CI 0.75-1.48). Of 47 deaths from natural causes, cardiovascular disease accounted for 23 (49%, 95% CI 34-63%); liver disease was implicated in 10 of 47. To support pharmacovigilance, submissions were made to Medicines and Healthcare Regulatory Agency for eight deaths (10%, 95% CI 4-19%). CONCLUSIONS: FAIs into prisoner deaths in Scotland are too long-awaited given that four (5%) identified precautions that could have prevented death.

Distinct temporal trends in breast cancer incidence from 1997 to 2016 by molecular subtypes: a population-based study of Scottish cancer registry data.

BACKGROUND: We describe temporal trends in breast cancer incidence by molecular subtypes in Scotland because public health prevention programmes, diagnostic and therapeutic services are shaped by differences in tumour biology. METHODS: Population-based cancer registry data on 72,217 women diagnosed with incident primary breast cancer from 1997 to 2016 were analysed. Age-standardised rates (ASR) and age-specific incidence were estimated by tumour subtype after imputing the 8% of missing oestrogen receptor (ER) status. Joinpoint regression and age-period-cohort models were used to assess whether significant differences were observed in incidence trends by ER status. RESULTS: Overall, ER-positive tumour incidence increased by 0.4%/year (95% confidence interval (CI): -0.1, 1.0). Among routinely screened women aged 50-69 years, we observed an increase in ASR from 1997 to 2011 (1.6%/year, 95% CI: 1.2-2.1). ER-negative tumour incidence decreased among all ages by 2.5%/year (95% CI: -3.9 to -1.1%) over the study period. Compared with the 1941-1959 birth cohort, women born in 1912-1940 had lower incidence rate ratios (IRR) for ER+ tumours and women born in 1960-1986 had lower IRR for ER- tumours. CONCLUSIONS: Future incidence and survival reporting should be monitored by molecular subtypes to inform clinical planning and cancer control programmes.

Non drug-related and opioid-specific causes of 3262 deaths in Scotland's methadone-prescription clients, 2009-2015.

BACKGROUND: Opioid drug use is a major cause of premature mortality, with opioid substitution therapy the leading intervention. As methadone-clients age, non-drug-related deaths (non-DRDs) predominate and DRD-risks increase differentially, quadrupling at 45+ years for methadone-specific DRDs. METHODS: 36,606 methadone-prescription-clients in Scotland during 2009-2015 were linked to mortality records to end-2015 by their Community Health Index (CHI). Cohort-entry, also baseline quantity of prescribed methadone, were defined by clients' first CHI-identified methadone-prescription during 2009-2015. National Records of Scotland identified non-DRDs from DRDs; and provided ICD10 codes for underlying and co-present causes of death. Methadone-specific DRD means methadone was implicated in DRD but neither heroin nor buprenorphine. RESULTS: During 193,800 person-years of follow-up, 1939 non-DRDs (59%) and 1323 DRDs occurred, of which 546 were methadone-specific. Predominant underlying ICD10 chapters for non-DRDs were: neoplasm (377); external causes (341); diseases of digestive (303), circulatory (286) or respiratory (212) system. As methadone-clients aged, the non-DRD proportion of their deaths increased from 54% (717/1318) at 35-44 years to 89% (372/417) at 55+ years. After allowing for DRDs' opioid-specificity, age-group and quintile for last-prescribed methadone, there was a significant, positive interaction for co-present circulatory disease between top-quintile for prescribed methadone and 45+ years at death (p = 0.033 after Bonferroni); not for digestive or respiratory co-presence. CONCLUSIONS: Circulatory disease is the co-morbidity most likely implicated in the quadrupling of methadone-specific DRD-risk at 45+ years; followed by digestive disease. Cultural shift is needed in treatment-services because degenerative non-DRDs predominate as methadone-clients age. Future linkage-studies should access hospitalizations and methadone-daily-dose.

Prevalence of recent fentanyl use among treated users of illicit opioids in England: based on piloted urine drug screens.

OBJECTIVE: To use a pilot of national fentanyl screening to establish the current prevalence of recent fentanyl use among treated users of illicit opioids in the English treatment system and inform the design of a full study. DESIGN: Cross-sectional fentanyl metabolite urine screening in randomly-selected study sites, stratified to cover all nine geographical regions of England, supplemented with self-report subsequent to a positive fentanyl test. PATIENTS: 468 adult (18 years of age and above) patients receiving treatment for opioid use disorder, screened December 2017 to May 2018. RESULTS: The fentanyl-positive rate in patients receiving treatment for opioid use disorder in the English treatment system was 3% (15/468, 95% CI 1.8% to 5.2%) with a per-site range (for the 10 sites in 9 regions where fentanyl was detected) of between 2% (1/57) and 15% (4/27). Self-report data indicated that the majority of fentanyl-positives (12/15, 80%) was unaware of having purchased fentanyl. CONCLUSIONS: Despite alerts already in place, patients receiving treatment for opioid use disorder, who were fentanyl-positive, were unwittingly purchasing and consuming fentanyl.