The human dimension of biodiversity changes on islands.

Islands are among the last regions on Earth settled and transformed by human activities, and they provide replicated model systems for analysis of how people affect ecological functions. By analyzing 27 representative fossil pollen sequences encompassing the past 5000 years from islands globally, we quantified the rates of vegetation compositional change before and after human arrival. After human arrival, rates of turnover accelerate by a median factor of 11, with faster rates on islands colonized in the past 1500 years than for those colonized earlier. This global anthropogenic acceleration in turnover suggests that islands are on trajectories of continuing change. Strategies for biodiversity conservation and ecosystem restoration must acknowledge the long duration of human impacts and the degree to which ecological changes today differ from prehuman dynamics.

Evolution of vegetation and climate variability on the Tibetan Plateau over the past 1.74 million years.

The Tibetan Plateau exerts a major influence on Asian climate, but its long-term environmental history remains largely unknown. We present a detailed record of vegetation and climate changes over the past 1.74 million years in a lake sediment core from the Zoige Basin, eastern Tibetan Plateau. Results show three intervals with different orbital- and millennial-scale features superimposed on a stepwise long-term cooling trend. The interval of 1.74-1.54 million years ago is characterized by an insolation-dominated mode with strong ~20,000-year cyclicity and quasi-absent millennial-scale signal. The interval of 1.54-0.62 million years ago represents a transitional insolation-ice mode marked by ~20,000- and ~40,000-year cycles, with superimposed millennial-scale oscillations. The past 620,000 years are characterized by an ice-driven mode with 100,000-year cyclicity and less frequent millennial-scale variability. A pronounced transition occurred 620,000 years ago, as glacial cycles intensified. These new findings reveal how the interaction of low-latitude insolation and high-latitude ice-volume forcing shaped the evolution of the Tibetan Plateau climate.

Testing the effect of the Himalayan mountains as a physical barrier to gene flow in Hippophae tibetana Schlect. (Elaeagnaceae).

Hippophae tibetana is a small, dioecious wind-pollinated shrub endemic to the Tibetan-Qinghai Plateau. It is one of the shrubs that occur at very high elevations (5250 m a.s.l.). The Himalayan mountains provides a significant geographical barrier to the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau, dividing the Himalayan area into two regions with Nepal to the south and Tibet to the north. There is no information on how the Himalayan mountains influence gene flow and population differentiation of alpine plants. In this study, we analyzed eight nuclear microsatellite markers and cpDNA trnT-trnF regions to test the role of the Himalayan mountains as a barrier to gene flow between populations of H. tibetana. We also examined the fine-scale genetic structure within a population of H. tibetana on the north slope of Mount (Mt.) Everest. For microsatellite analyses, a total of 241 individuals were sampled from seven populations in our study area (4 from Nepal, 3 from Tibet), including 121 individuals that were spatially mapped within a 100 m × 100 m plot. To test for seed flow, the cpDNA trnT-trnF regions of 100 individuals from 6 populations (4 from Nepal, 2 from Tibet) were also sequenced. Significant genetic differentiation was detected between the two regions by both microsatellite and cpDNA data analyses. These two datasets agree about southern and northern population differentiation, indicating that the Himalayan mountains represent a barrier to H. tibetana limiting gene flow between these two areas. At a fine scale, spatial autocorrelation analysis suggests significant genetic structure within a distance of less than 45 m, which may be attributed mainly to vegetative reproduction and habitat fragmentation, as well as limited gene flow.

Glacial legacies on interglacial vegetation at the Pliocene-Pleistocene transition in NE Asia.

Broad-scale climate control of vegetation is widely assumed. Vegetation-climate lags are generally thought to have lasted no more than a few centuries. Here our palaeoecological study challenges this concept over glacial-interglacial timescales. Through multivariate analyses of pollen assemblages from Lake El'gygytgyn, Russian Far East and other data we show that interglacial vegetation during the Plio-Pleistocene transition mainly reflects conditions of the preceding glacial instead of contemporary interglacial climate. Vegetation-climate disequilibrium may persist for several millennia, related to the combined effects of permafrost persistence, distant glacial refugia and fire. In contrast, no effects from the preceding interglacial on glacial vegetation are detected. We propose that disequilibrium was stronger during the Plio-Pleistocene transition than during the Mid-Pliocene Warm Period when, in addition to climate, herbivory was important. By analogy to the past, we suggest today's widespread larch ecosystem on permafrost is not in climate equilibrium. Vegetation-based reconstructions of interglacial climates used to assess atmospheric CO2-temperature relationships may thus yield misleading simulations of past global climate sensitivity.

How have studies of ancient DNA from sediments contributed to the reconstruction of Quaternary floras?

499 I. 499 II. 500 III. 500 IV. 500 V. 500 VI. 501 VII. 502 VIII. 504 504 References 505 SUMMARY: Ancient DNA (aDNA) from lake sediments, peats, permafrost soils, preserved megafaunal gut contents and coprolites has been used to reconstruct late-Quaternary floras. aDNA is either used alone for floristic reconstruction or compared with pollen and/or macrofossil results. In comparative studies, aDNA may complement pollen and macrofossil analyses by increasing the number of taxa found. We discuss the relative contributions of each fossil group to taxon richness and the number of unique taxa found, and situations in which aDNA has refined pollen identifications. Pressing problems in aDNA studies are contamination and ignorance about taphonomy (transportation, incorporation, and preservation in sediments). Progress requires that these problems are reduced to allow aDNA to reach its full potential contribution to reconstructions of Quaternary floras.

East Asian summer monsoon precipitation variability since the last deglaciation.

The lack of a precisely-dated, unequivocal climate proxy from northern China, where precipitation variability is traditionally considered as an East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) indicator, impedes our understanding of the behaviour and dynamics of the EASM. Here we present a well-dated, pollen-based, ~20-yr-resolution quantitative precipitation reconstruction (derived using a transfer function) from an alpine lake in North China, which provides for the first time a direct record of EASM evolution since 14.7 ka (ka = thousands of years before present, where the "present" is defined as the year AD 1950). Our record reveals a gradually intensifying monsoon from 14.7-7.0 ka, a maximum monsoon (30% higher precipitation than present) from ~7.8-5.3 ka, and a rapid decline since ~3.3 ka. These insolation-driven EASM trends were punctuated by two millennial-scale weakening events which occurred synchronously to the cold Younger Dryas and at ~9.5-8.5 ka, and by two centennial-scale intervals of enhanced (weakened) monsoon during the Medieval Warm Period (Little Ice Age). Our precipitation reconstruction, consistent with temperature changes but quite different from the prevailing view of EASM evolution, points to strong internal feedback processes driving the EASM, and may aid our understanding of future monsoon behaviour under ongoing anthropogenic climate change.

Validation of climate model-inferred regional temperature change for late-glacial Europe.

Comparisons of climate model hindcasts with independent proxy data are essential for assessing model performance in non-analogue situations. However, standardized palaeoclimate data sets for assessing the spatial pattern of past climatic change across continents are lacking for some of the most dynamic episodes of Earth's recent past. Here we present a new chironomid-based palaeotemperature dataset designed to assess climate model hindcasts of regional summer temperature change in Europe during the late-glacial and early Holocene. Latitudinal and longitudinal patterns of inferred temperature change are in excellent agreement with simulations by the ECHAM-4 model, implying that atmospheric general circulation models like ECHAM-4 can successfully predict regionally diverging temperature trends in Europe, even when conditions differ significantly from present. However, ECHAM-4 infers larger amplitudes of change and higher temperatures during warm phases than our palaeotemperature estimates, suggesting that this and similar models may overestimate past and potentially also future summer temperature changes in Europe.

Microrefugia and Shifts of Hippophae tibetana (Elaeagnaceae) on the north side of Mt. Qomolangma (Mt. Everest) during the last 25000 years.

Microrefugia at high altitudes or high latitudes are thought to play an important role in the post-glacial colonization of species. However, how populations in such microrefugia have responded to climate changes in alternating cold glacial and warm interglacial stages remain unclear. Here we present evidence to indicate the Rongbuk Valley of the Mt. Qomolangma (Mt. Everest) area, the highest region on earth, had microrefugia for Hippophae tibetana and discuss how this low shrub was adapted to the extreme climate fluctuations of the last 25,000 years by shifts. By integrating geological, glaciological, meteorological, and genetic information, we found that the Rongbuk Valley was not only a glacial microrefugium but also an interglacial microrefugium for H. tibetana: the former was located on the riverbank below 4800 m above sea level (asl) or lower area and the latter at ∼ 5000 m asl. Our results show that after the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), H. tibetana in the valley has undergone upward and downward migrations around ∼ 5000 m driven by climate fluctuations and the population in the glacial microrefugium has suffered extinction or extreme contraction. Moreover, with the rise of temperature in the last four decades, the upper limit of H. tibetana has shifted at least 30 m upward. Combining population history and recent range shift of this species is important in predicting the fate of this endemic species to future climate changes.

Siberian larch forests and the ion content of thaw lakes form a geochemically functional entity.

Siberian larch forests growing on shallow permafrost soils have not, until now, been considered to be controlling the abiotic and biotic characteristics of the vast number of thaw-lake ecosystems. Here we show, using four independent data sets (a modern data set from 201 lakes from the tundra to taiga, and three lake-core records), that lake-water geochemistry in Yakutia is highly correlated with vegetation. Alkalinity increases with catchment forest density. We postulate that in this arid area, higher evapotranspiration in larch forests compared with that in the tundra vegetation leads to local salt accumulation in soils. Solutes are transported to nearby thaw lakes during rain events and snow melt, but are not fully transported into rivers, because there is no continuous groundwater flow within permafrost soils. This implies that potentially large shifts in the chemical characteristics of aquatic ecosystems to known warming are absent because of the slow response of catchment forests to climate change.

Tree migration-rates: narrowing the gap between inferred post-glacial rates and projected rates.

Faster-than-expected post-glacial migration rates of trees have puzzled ecologists for a long time. In Europe, post-glacial migration is assumed to have started from the three southern European peninsulas (southern refugia), where large areas remained free of permafrost and ice at the peak of the last glaciation. However, increasing palaeobotanical evidence for the presence of isolated tree populations in more northerly microrefugia has started to change this perception. Here we use the Northern Eurasian Plant Macrofossil Database and palaeoecological literature to show that post-glacial migration rates for trees may have been substantially lower (60-260 m yr(-1)) than those estimated by assuming migration from southern refugia only (115-550 m yr(-1)), and that early-successional trees migrated faster than mid- and late-successional trees. Post-glacial migration rates are in good agreement with those recently projected for the future with a population dynamical forest succession and dispersal model, mainly for early-successional trees and under optimal conditions. Although migration estimates presented here may be conservative because of our assumption of uniform dispersal, tree migration-rates clearly need reconsideration. We suggest that small outlier populations may be a key factor in understanding past migration rates and in predicting potential future range-shifts. The importance of outlier populations in the past may have an analogy in the future, as many tree species have been planted beyond their natural ranges, with a more beneficial microclimate than their regional surroundings. Therefore, climate-change-induced range-shifts in the future might well be influenced by such microrefugia.

Local temperatures inferred from plant communities suggest strong spatial buffering of climate warming across Northern Europe.

Recent studies from mountainous areas of small spatial extent (<2500 km(2) ) suggest that fine-grained thermal variability over tens or hundreds of metres exceeds much of the climate warming expected for the coming decades. Such variability in temperature provides buffering to mitigate climate-change impacts. Is this local spatial buffering restricted to topographically complex terrains? To answer this, we here study fine-grained thermal variability across a 2500-km wide latitudinal gradient in Northern Europe encompassing a large array of topographic complexities. We first combined plant community data, Ellenberg temperature indicator values, locally measured temperatures (LmT) and globally interpolated temperatures (GiT) in a modelling framework to infer biologically relevant temperature conditions from plant assemblages within <1000-m(2) units (community-inferred temperatures: CiT). We then assessed: (1) CiT range (thermal variability) within 1-km(2) units; (2) the relationship between CiT range and topographically and geographically derived predictors at 1-km resolution; and (3) whether spatial turnover in CiT is greater than spatial turnover in GiT within 100-km(2) units. Ellenberg temperature indicator values in combination with plant assemblages explained 46-72% of variation in LmT and 92-96% of variation in GiT during the growing season (June, July, August). Growing-season CiT range within 1-km(2) units peaked at 60-65°N and increased with terrain roughness, averaging 1.97 °C (SD = 0.84 °C) and 2.68 °C (SD = 1.26 °C) within the flattest and roughest units respectively. Complex interactions between topography-related variables and latitude explained 35% of variation in growing-season CiT range when accounting for sampling effort and residual spatial autocorrelation. Spatial turnover in growing-season CiT within 100-km(2) units was, on average, 1.8 times greater (0.32 °C km(-1) ) than spatial turnover in growing-season GiT (0.18 °C km(-1) ). We conclude that thermal variability within 1-km(2) units strongly increases local spatial buffering of future climate warming across Northern Europe, even in the flattest terrains.

Comment on "Glacial survival of boreal trees in northern Scandinavia".

Parducci et al. (Reports, 2 March 2012, p. 1083) fail to present convincing evidence for glacial survival of Pinus and Picea in northern Scandinavia. Their methodology does not exclude contamination. Additionally, they should consider the lack of suitable habitats, the apparent extinction of both taxa after deglacial warming, and alternative hypotheses for the distribution of the Picea genetic marker haplotype A.

Quantifying recent ecological changes in remote lakes of North America and Greenland using sediment diatom assemblages.

BACKGROUND: Although arctic lakes have responded sensitively to 20(th)-century climate change, it remains uncertain how these ecological transformations compare with alpine and montane-boreal counterparts over the same interval. Furthermore, it is unclear to what degree other forcings, including atmospheric deposition of anthropogenic reactive nitrogen (Nr), have participated in recent regime shifts. Diatom-based paleolimnological syntheses offer an effective tool for retrospective assessments of past and ongoing changes in remote lake ecosystems. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We synthesized 52 dated sediment diatom records from lakes in western North America and west Greenland, spanning broad latitudinal and altitudinal gradients, and representing alpine (n = 15), arctic (n = 20), and forested boreal-montane (n = 17) ecosystems. Diatom compositional turnover (beta-diversity) during the 20(th) century was estimated using Detrended Canonical Correspondence Analysis (DCCA) for each site and compared, for cores with sufficiently robust chronologies, to both the 19(th) century and the prior approximately 250 years (Little Ice Age). For both arctic and alpine lakes, beta-diversity during the 20(th) century is significantly greater than the previous 350 years, and increases with both latitude and altitude. Because no correlation is apparent between 20(th)-century diatom beta-diversity and any single physical or limnological parameter (including lake and catchment area, maximum depth, pH, conductivity, [NO(3)(-)], modeled Nr deposition, ambient summer and winter air temperatures, and modeled temperature trends 1948-2008), we used Principal Components Analysis (PCA) to summarize the amplitude of recent changes in relationship to lake pH, lake:catchment area ratio, modeled Nr deposition, and recent temperature trends. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: The ecological responses of remote lakes to post-industrial environmental changes are complex. However, two regions reveal concentrations of sites with elevated 20(th)-century diatom beta-diversity: the Arctic where temperatures are increasing most rapidly, and mid-latitude alpine lakes impacted by high Nr deposition rates. We predict that remote lakes will continue to shift towards new ecological states in the Anthropocene, particularly in regions where these two forcings begin to intersect geographically.

Agroforestry: a refuge for tropical biodiversity?

As rates of deforestation continue to rise in many parts of the tropics, the international conservation community is faced with the challenge of finding approaches which can reduce deforestation and provide rural livelihoods in addition to conserving biodiversity. Much of modern-day conservation is motivated by a desire to conserve 'pristine nature' in protected areas, while there is growing recognition of the long-term human involvement in forest dynamics and of the importance of conservation outside protected areas. Agroforestry -- intentional management of shade trees with agricultural crops -- has the potential for providing habitats outside formally protected land, connecting nature reserves and alleviating resource-use pressure on conservation areas. Here we examine the role of agroforestry systems in maintaining species diversity and conclude that these systems can play an important role in biodiversity conservation in human-dominated landscapes.