Long-term cardiovascular risks and the impact of statin treatment on socioeconomic inequalities: a microsimulation model.

BACKGROUND: UK cardiovascular disease (CVD) incidence and mortality have declined in recent decades but socioeconomic inequalities persist. AIM: To present a new CVD model, and project health outcomes and the impact of guideline-recommended statin treatment across quintiles of socioeconomic deprivation in the UK. DESIGN AND SETTING: A lifetime microsimulation model was developed using 117 896 participants in 16 statin trials, 501 854 UK Biobank (UKB) participants, and quality-of-life data from national health surveys. METHOD: A CVD microsimulation model was developed using risk equations for myocardial infarction, stroke, coronary revascularisation, cancer, and vascular and non-vascular death, estimated using trial data. The authors calibrated and further developed this model in the UKB cohort, including further characteristics and a diabetes risk equation, and validated the model in UKB and Whitehall II cohorts. The model was used to predict CVD incidence, life expectancy, quality-adjusted life years (QALYs), and the impact of UK guideline-recommended statin treatment across socioeconomic deprivation quintiles. RESULTS: Age, sex, socioeconomic deprivation, smoking, hypertension, diabetes, and cardiovascular events were key CVD risk determinants. Model-predicted event rates corresponded well to observed rates across participant categories. The model projected strong gradients in remaining life expectancy, with 4-5-year (5-8 QALYs) gaps between the least and most socioeconomically deprived quintiles. Guideline-recommended statin treatment was projected to increase QALYs, with larger gains in quintiles of higher deprivation. CONCLUSION: The study demonstrated the potential of guideline-recommended statin treatment to reduce socioeconomic inequalities. This CVD model is a novel resource for individualised long-term projections of health outcomes of CVD treatments.

Growth-Mindset Intervention Delivered by Teachers Boosts Achievement in Early Adolescence.

School underachievement is a persistent problem in the United States. Direct-to-student, computer-delivered growth-mindset interventions have shown promise as a way to improve achievement for students at risk of failing in school; however, these interventions benefit only students who happen to be in classrooms that support growth-mindset beliefs. Here, we tested a teacher-delivered growth-mindset intervention for U.S. adolescents in Grades 6 and 7 that was designed to both impart growth-mindset beliefs and create a supportive classroom environment where those beliefs could flourish (N = 1,996 students, N = 50 teachers). The intervention improved the grades of struggling students in the target class by 0.27 standard deviations, or 2.81 grade percentage points. The effects were largest for students whose teachers endorsed fixed mindsets before the intervention. This large-scale, randomized controlled trial demonstrates that growth-mindset interventions can produce gains when delivered by teachers.

Effects of alteplase for acute stroke according to criteria defining the European Union and United States marketing authorizations: Individual-patient-data meta-analysis of randomized trials.

Background The recommended maximum age and time window for intravenous alteplase treatment of acute ischemic stroke differs between the Europe Union and United States. Aims We compared the effects of alteplase in cohorts defined by the current Europe Union or United States marketing approval labels, and by hypothetical revisions of the labels that would remove the Europe Union upper age limit or extend the United States treatment time window to 4.5 h. Methods We assessed outcomes in an individual-patient-data meta-analysis of eight randomized trials of intravenous alteplase (0.9 mg/kg) versus control for acute ischemic stroke. Outcomes included: excellent outcome (modified Rankin score 0-1) at 3-6 months, the distribution of modified Rankin score, symptomatic intracerebral hemorrhage, and 90-day mortality. Results Alteplase increased the odds of modified Rankin score 0-1 among 2449/6136 (40%) patients who met the current European Union label and 3491 (57%) patients who met the age-revised label (odds ratio 1.42, 95% CI 1.21-1.68 and 1.43, 1.23-1.65, respectively), but not in those outside the age-revised label (1.06, 0.90-1.26). By 90 days, there was no increased mortality in the current and age-revised cohorts (hazard ratios 0.98, 95% CI 0.76-1.25 and 1.01, 0.86-1.19, respectively) but mortality remained higher outside the age-revised label (1.19, 0.99-1.42). Similarly, alteplase increased the odds of modified Rankin score 0-1 among 1174/6136 (19%) patients who met the current US approval and 3326 (54%) who met a 4.5-h revised approval (odds ratio 1.55, 1.19-2.01 and 1.37, 1.17-1.59, respectively), but not for those outside the 4.5-h revised approval (1.14, 0.97-1.34). By 90 days, no increased mortality remained for the current and 4.5-h revised label cohorts (hazard ratios 0.99, 0.77-1.26 and 1.02, 0.87-1.20, respectively) but mortality remained higher outside the 4.5-h revised approval (1.17, 0.98-1.41). Conclusions An age-revised European Union label or 4.5-h-revised United States label would each increase the number of patients deriving net benefit from alteplase by 90 days after acute ischemic stroke, without excess mortality.

Perceptions, experiences and preferences of patients receiving a clinician's touch during intimate care and procedures: a qualitative systematic review.

BACKGROUND: Clinical practice frequently involves the practitioner touching patients' bodies in areas that are highly personal. If inappropriately performed, such intimate touch may result in much anxiety, confusion and misinterpretation. Examination of evidence is necessary to guide practice in this area to mitigate risks and foster optimal clinician-patient relations and care. OBJECTIVES: The objective of this qualitative systematic review was to identify and synthesize findings on the perceptions, experiences and preferences of patients receiving a clinician's touch during intimate care and procedures INCLUSION CRITERIA TYPES OF PARTICIPANTS: The current review considered studies that included patients who had received a clinician's touch during intimate care and procedures. PHENOMENA OF INTEREST: The current review considered qualitative studies that evaluated patients' perceptions, experiences and preferences of a clinician's touch during intimate care and procedures. TYPES OF STUDIES: The current review considered studies that collected qualitative data and included studies using designs such as phenomenology, grounded theory, ethnography, action research, qualitative description, focus group methodology and feminist research. In the absence of research studies, other text such as opinion papers and reports were considered. CONTEXT: The current review considered studies that included patients' perceptions, experiences and preferences of a clinician's touch during intimate care and procedures. Intimate care is likely to occur in any clinical setting where patients need assistance with personal care, where physical examinations occur, or in settings were gynecologic, genitourinary, lower intestinal, dermatologic, cardiac or other procedures involving highly personal areas of the body are performed. SEARCH STRATEGY: A three-step search strategy was used to find published and unpublished studies in English from 1970 to 2016, searching various databases which included searches of reference lists of studies selected for appraisal. METHODOLOGICAL QUALITY: Included studies were assessed for methodological quality independently by two reviewers using the Joanna Briggs Institute Qualitative Assessment and Review Instrument (JBI-QARI) prior to inclusion. Of the two studies included in the review, one did not discuss ontological and epistemological assumptions, and the other did not include the personal assumptions and role of the researcher. DATA EXTRACTION: Data were extracted using the data extraction tool from the JBI-QARI. The data extracted included details about the phenomenon of interest, populations and study methods. DATA SYNTHESIS: Qualitative findings were synthesized using JBI-QARI. RESULTS: Two studies were included in this review. Seven findings were organized into three categories and one synthesized finding, "clinician respect". The finding suggests that clients prefer engaged and meaningful communication prior to and during an intimate touch encounter, expect autonomy over their bodies and desire shared decision making relative to how and by whom intimate touch is provided. CONCLUSION: The synthesized finding from this review suggests that:More research is needed to explore the perceptions and preferences for intimate touch among diverse populations, generations, cultures and contexts. Particular exploration is needed for populations with additional vulnerabilities to misunderstandings, anxiety and abuse, such as pediatric and geriatric patients, and patients with physical, mental and cognitive impairments.

Interpretation of the evidence for the efficacy and safety of statin therapy.

This Review is intended to help clinicians, patients, and the public make informed decisions about statin therapy for the prevention of heart attacks and strokes. It explains how the evidence that is available from randomised controlled trials yields reliable information about both the efficacy and safety of statin therapy. In addition, it discusses how claims that statins commonly cause adverse effects reflect a failure to recognise the limitations of other sources of evidence about the effects of treatment. Large-scale evidence from randomised trials shows that statin therapy reduces the risk of major vascular events (ie, coronary deaths or myocardial infarctions, strokes, and coronary revascularisation procedures) by about one-quarter for each mmol/L reduction in LDL cholesterol during each year (after the first) that it continues to be taken. The absolute benefits of statin therapy depend on an individual's absolute risk of occlusive vascular events and the absolute reduction in LDL cholesterol that is achieved. For example, lowering LDL cholesterol by 2 mmol/L (77 mg/dL) with an effective low-cost statin regimen (eg, atorvastatin 40 mg daily, costing about £2 per month) for 5 years in 10 000 patients would typically prevent major vascular events from occurring in about 1000 patients (ie, 10% absolute benefit) with pre-existing occlusive vascular disease (secondary prevention) and in 500 patients (ie, 5% absolute benefit) who are at increased risk but have not yet had a vascular event (primary prevention). Statin therapy has been shown to reduce vascular disease risk during each year it continues to be taken, so larger absolute benefits would accrue with more prolonged therapy, and these benefits persist long term. The only serious adverse events that have been shown to be caused by long-term statin therapy-ie, adverse effects of the statin-are myopathy (defined as muscle pain or weakness combined with large increases in blood concentrations of creatine kinase), new-onset diabetes mellitus, and, probably, haemorrhagic stroke. Typically, treatment of 10 000 patients for 5 years with an effective regimen (eg, atorvastatin 40 mg daily) would cause about 5 cases of myopathy (one of which might progress, if the statin therapy is not stopped, to the more severe condition of rhabdomyolysis), 50-100 new cases of diabetes, and 5-10 haemorrhagic strokes. However, any adverse impact of these side-effects on major vascular events has already been taken into account in the estimates of the absolute benefits. Statin therapy may cause symptomatic adverse events (eg, muscle pain or weakness) in up to about 50-100 patients (ie, 0·5-1·0% absolute harm) per 10 000 treated for 5 years. However, placebo-controlled randomised trials have shown definitively that almost all of the symptomatic adverse events that are attributed to statin therapy in routine practice are not actually caused by it (ie, they represent misattribution). The large-scale evidence available from randomised trials also indicates that it is unlikely that large absolute excesses in other serious adverse events still await discovery. Consequently, any further findings that emerge about the effects of statin therapy would not be expected to alter materially the balance of benefits and harms. It is, therefore, of concern that exaggerated claims about side-effect rates with statin therapy may be responsible for its under-use among individuals at increased risk of cardiovascular events. For, whereas the rare cases of myopathy and any muscle-related symptoms that are attributed to statin therapy generally resolve rapidly when treatment is stopped, the heart attacks or strokes that may occur if statin therapy is stopped unnecessarily can be devastating.

Impact of renal function on the effects of LDL cholesterol lowering with statin-based regimens: a meta-analysis of individual participant data from 28 randomised trials.

BACKGROUND: Statin therapy is effective for the prevention of coronary heart disease and stroke in patients with mild-to-moderate chronic kidney disease, but its effects in individuals with more advanced disease, particularly those undergoing dialysis, are uncertain. METHODS: We did a meta-analysis of individual participant data from 28 trials (n=183 419), examining effects of statin-based therapy on major vascular events (major coronary event [non-fatal myocardial infarction or coronary death], stroke, or coronary revascularisation) and cause-specific mortality. Participants were subdivided into categories of estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) at baseline. Treatment effects were estimated with rate ratio (RR) per mmol/L reduction in LDL cholesterol. FINDINGS: Overall, statin-based therapy reduced the risk of a first major vascular event by 21% (RR 0·79, 95% CI 0·77-0·81; p<0·0001) per mmol/L reduction in LDL cholesterol. Smaller relative effects on major vascular events were observed as eGFR declined (p=0·008 for trend; RR 0·78, 99% CI 0·75-0·82 for eGFR ≥60 mL/min per 1·73 m(2); 0·76, 0·70-0·81 for eGFR 45 to <60 mL/min per 1·73 m(2); 0·85, 0·75-0·96 for eGFR 30 to <45 mL/min per 1·73 m(2); 0·85, 0·71-1·02 for eGFR <30 mL/min per 1·73 m(2) and not on dialysis; and 0·94, 0·79-1·11 for patients on dialysis). Analogous trends by baseline renal function were seen for major coronary events (p=0·01 for trend) and vascular mortality (p=0·03 for trend), but there was no significant trend for coronary revascularisation (p=0·90). Reducing LDL cholesterol with statin-based therapy had no effect on non-vascular mortality, irrespective of eGFR. INTERPRETATION: Even after allowing for the smaller reductions in LDL cholesterol achieved by patients with more advanced chronic kidney disease, and for differences in outcome definitions between dialysis trials, the relative reductions in major vascular events observed with statin-based treatment became smaller as eGFR declined, with little evidence of benefit in patients on dialysis. In patients with chronic kidney disease, statin-based regimens should be chosen to maximise the absolute reduction in LDL cholesterol to achieve the largest treatment benefits. FUNDING: UK Medical Research Council, British Heart Foundation, Cancer Research UK, European Community Biomed Programme, Australian National Health and Medical Research Council, Australian National Heart Foundation.

Perceptions, experiences and preferences of patients receiving the clinician's touch during intimate care and procedures: a qualitative systematic review protocol.

REVIEW QUESTION/OBJECTIVE: What are the perceptions, experiences and preferences of patients receiving the clinician's touch during intimate care and procedures?

Effects of Alteplase for Acute Stroke on the Distribution of Functional Outcomes: A Pooled Analysis of 9 Trials.

BACKGROUND: Thrombolytic therapy with intravenous alteplase within 4.5 hours of ischemic stroke onset increases the overall likelihood of an excellent outcome (no, or nondisabling, symptoms). Any improvement in functional outcome distribution has value, and herein we provide an assessment of the effect of alteplase on the distribution of the functional level by treatment delay, age, and stroke severity. METHODS: Prespecified pooled analysis of 6756 patients from 9 randomized trials comparing alteplase versus placebo/open control. Ordinal logistic regression models assessed treatment differences after adjustment for treatment delay, age, stroke severity, and relevant interaction term(s). RESULTS: Treatment with alteplase was beneficial for a delay in treatment extending to 4.5 hours after stroke onset, with a greater benefit with earlier treatment. Neither age nor stroke severity significantly influenced the slope of the relationship between benefit and time to treatment initiation. For the observed case mix of patients treated within 4.5 hours of stroke onset (mean 3 hours and 20 minutes), the net absolute benefit from alteplase (ie, the difference between those who would do better if given alteplase and those who would do worse) was 55 patients per 1000 treated (95% confidence interval, 13-91; P=0.004). CONCLUSIONS: Treatment with intravenous alteplase initiated within 4.5 hours of stroke onset increases the chance of achieving an improved level of function for all patients across the age spectrum, including the over 80s and across all severities of stroke studied (top versus bottom fifth means: 22 versus 4); the earlier that treatment is initiated, the greater the benefit.

Risk of intracerebral haemorrhage with alteplase after acute ischaemic stroke: a secondary analysis of an individual patient data meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Randomised trials have shown that alteplase improves the odds of a good outcome when delivered within 4·5 h of acute ischaemic stroke. However, alteplase also increases the risk of intracerebral haemorrhage; we aimed to determine the proportional and absolute effects of alteplase on the risks of intracerebral haemorrhage, mortality, and functional impairment in different types of patients. METHODS: We used individual patient data from the Stroke Thrombolysis Trialists' (STT) meta-analysis of randomised trials of alteplase versus placebo (or untreated control) in patients with acute ischaemic stroke. We prespecified assessment of three classifications of intracerebral haemorrhage: type 2 parenchymal haemorrhage within 7 days; Safe Implementation of Thrombolysis in Stroke Monitoring Study's (SITS-MOST) haemorrhage within 24-36 h (type 2 parenchymal haemorrhage with a deterioration of at least 4 points on National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale [NIHSS]); and fatal intracerebral haemorrhage within 7 days. We used logistic regression, stratified by trial, to model the log odds of intracerebral haemorrhage on allocation to alteplase, treatment delay, age, and stroke severity. We did exploratory analyses to assess mortality after intracerebral haemorrhage and examine the absolute risks of intracerebral haemorrhage in the context of functional outcome at 90-180 days. FINDINGS: Data were available from 6756 participants in the nine trials of intravenous alteplase versus control. Alteplase increased the odds of type 2 parenchymal haemorrhage (occurring in 231 [6·8%] of 3391 patients allocated alteplase vs 44 [1·3%] of 3365 patients allocated control; odds ratio [OR] 5·55 [95% CI 4·01-7·70]; absolute excess 5·5% [4·6-6·4]); of SITS-MOST haemorrhage (124 [3·7%] of 3391 vs 19 [0·6%] of 3365; OR 6·67 [4·11-10·84]; absolute excess 3·1% [2·4-3·8]); and of fatal intracerebral haemorrhage (91 [2·7%] of 3391 vs 13 [0·4%] of 3365; OR 7·14 [3·98-12·79]; absolute excess 2·3% [1·7-2·9]). However defined, the proportional increase in intracerebral haemorrhage was similar irrespective of treatment delay, age, or baseline stroke severity, but the absolute excess risk of intracerebral haemorrhage increased with increasing stroke severity: for SITS-MOST intracerebral haemorrhage the absolute excess risk ranged from 1·5% (0·8-2·6%) for strokes with NIHSS 0-4 to 3·7% (2·1-6·3%) for NIHSS 22 or more (p=0·0101). For patients treated within 4·5 h, the absolute increase in the proportion (6·8% [4·0% to 9·5%]) achieving a modified Rankin Scale of 0 or 1 (excellent outcome) exceeded the absolute increase in risk of fatal intracerebral haemorrhage (2·2% [1·5% to 3·0%]) and the increased risk of any death within 90 days (0·9% [-1·4% to 3·2%]). INTERPRETATION: Among patients given alteplase, the net outcome is predicted both by time to treatment (with faster time increasing the proportion achieving an excellent outcome) and stroke severity (with a more severe stroke increasing the absolute risk of intracerebral haemorrhage). Although, within 4·5 h of stroke, the probability of achieving an excellent outcome with alteplase treatment exceeds the risk of death, early treatment is especially important for patients with severe stroke. FUNDING: UK Medical Research Council, British Heart Foundation, University of Glasgow, University of Edinburgh.

Alteplase for acute ischemic stroke: outcomes by clinically important subgroups in the Third International Stroke Trial.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Our aim was to identify whether particular subgroups of patients had an unacceptably high risk of symptomatic intracranial hemorrhage or low chance of benefit when treated with alteplase (recombinant tissue-type plasminogen activator). METHODS: Third International Stroke Trial was an international randomized trial of the intravenous (IV) recombinant plasminogen activator alteplase (0.9 mg/kg) versus control in 3035 (1515 versus 1520) patients. We analyzed the effect of recombinant tissue-type plasminogen activator on 6-month functional outcome, early death, and symptomatic intracranial hemorrhage (both ≤7 days). We tested for any differences in treatment effect between subgroups by a test of interaction. Our 13 protocol prespecified subgroups were time to randomization, age, sex, stroke subtype, atrial fibrillation, early ischemic change (clinician and expert panel), prior antiplatelet use, stroke severity, diastolic and systolic blood pressure at randomization, center's thrombolysis experience, and trial phase. Analyses were adjusted for key baseline prognostic factors. RESULTS: There were no significant interactions in the subgroups analyzed that were consistent across all 3 outcomes. Treatment with recombinant tissue-type plasminogen activator increased the odds of symptomatic intracranial hemorrhage by a greater amount in patients taking prior antiplatelets than those who were not (P=0.019 for test of interaction), but had no clear detrimental effect on functional outcome at 6 months in this group (P=0.781 for test of interaction). CONCLUSIONS: Among the types of patient in the Third International Stroke Trial, this secondary analysis did not identify any subgroups for whom treatment should be avoided. Given the limitations of the analysis, we found no clear evidence to avoid treatment in patients with prior ischemic stroke, diabetes mellitus, or hypertension. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION URL: http://www.controlled-trials.com. Unique identifier: ISRCTN25765518. http://www.controlled-trials.com/ISRCTN25765518.

Efficacy and safety of LDL-lowering therapy among men and women: meta-analysis of individual data from 174,000 participants in 27 randomised trials.

BACKGROUND: Whether statin therapy is as effective in women as in men is debated, especially for primary prevention. We undertook a meta-analysis of statin trials in the Cholesterol Treatment Trialists' (CTT) Collaboration database to compare the effects of statin therapy between women and men. METHODS: We performed meta-analyses on data from 22 trials of statin therapy versus control (n=134,537) and five trials of more-intensive versus less-intensive statin therapy (n=39,612). Effects on major vascular events, major coronary events, stroke, coronary revascularisation and mortality were weighted per 1.0 mmol/L reduction in LDL cholesterol and effects in men and women compared with a Cox model that adjusted for non-sex differences. For subgroup analyses, we used 99% CIs to make allowance for the multiplicity of comparisons. FINDINGS: 46,675 (27%) of 174,149 randomly assigned participants were women. Allocation to a statin had similar absolute effects on 1 year lipid concentrations in both men and women (LDL cholesterol reduced by about 1.1 mmol/L in statin vs control trials and roughly 0.5 mmol/L for more-intensive vs less-intensive therapy). Women were generally at lower cardiovascular risk than were men in these trials. The proportional reductions per 1.0 mmol/L reduction in LDL cholesterol in major vascular events were similar overall for women (rate ratio [RR] 0.84, 99% CI 0.78-0.91) and men (RR 0.78, 99% CI 0.75-0.81, adjusted p value for heterogeneity by sex=0.33) and also for those women and men at less than 10% predicted 5 year absolute cardiovascular risk (adjusted heterogeneity p=0.11). Likewise, the proportional reductions in major coronary events, coronary revascularisation, and stroke did not differ significantly by sex. No adverse effect on rates of cancer incidence or non-cardiovascular mortality was noted for either sex. These net benefits translated into all-cause mortality reductions with statin therapy for both women (RR 0.91, 99% CI 0.84-0.99) and men (RR 0.90, 99% CI 0.86-0.95; adjusted heterogeneity p=0.43). INTERPRETATION: In men and women at an equivalent risk of cardiovascular disease, statin therapy is of similar effectiveness for the prevention of major vascular events. FUNDING: UK Medical Research Council, British Heart Foundation, Australian National Health and Medical Research Council, European Community Biomed Program.

Effect of treatment delay, age, and stroke severity on the effects of intravenous thrombolysis with alteplase for acute ischaemic stroke: a meta-analysis of individual patient data from randomised trials.

BACKGROUND: Alteplase is effective for treatment of acute ischaemic stroke but debate continues about its use after longer times since stroke onset, in older patients, and among patients who have had the least or most severe strokes. We assessed the role of these factors in affecting good stroke outcome in patients given alteplase. METHODS: We did a pre-specified meta-analysis of individual patient data from 6756 patients in nine randomised trials comparing alteplase with placebo or open control. We included all completed randomised phase 3 trials of intravenous alteplase for treatment of acute ischaemic stroke for which data were available. Retrospective checks confirmed that no eligible trials had been omitted. We defined a good stroke outcome as no significant disability at 3-6 months, defined by a modified Rankin Score of 0 or 1. Additional outcomes included symptomatic intracranial haemorrhage (defined by type 2 parenchymal haemorrhage within 7 days and, separately, by the SITS-MOST definition of parenchymal type 2 haemorrhage within 36 h), fatal intracranial haemorrhage within 7 days, and 90-day mortality. FINDINGS: Alteplase increased the odds of a good stroke outcome, with earlier treatment associated with bigger proportional benefit. Treatment within 3·0 h resulted in a good outcome for 259 (32·9%) of 787 patients who received alteplase versus 176 (23·1%) of 762 who received control (OR 1·75, 95% CI 1·35-2·27); delay of greater than 3·0 h, up to 4·5 h, resulted in good outcome for 485 (35·3%) of 1375 versus 432 (30·1%) of 1437 (OR 1·26, 95% CI 1·05-1·51); and delay of more than 4·5 h resulted in good outcome for 401 (32·6%) of 1229 versus 357 (30·6%) of 1166 (OR 1·15, 95% CI 0·95-1·40). Proportional treatment benefits were similar irrespective of age or stroke severity. Alteplase significantly increased the odds of symptomatic intracranial haemorrhage (type 2 parenchymal haemorrhage definition 231 [6·8%] of 3391 vs 44 [1·3%] of 3365, OR 5·55, 95% CI 4·01-7·70, p<0·0001; SITS-MOST definition 124 [3·7%] vs 19 [0·6%], OR 6·67, 95% CI 4·11-10·84, p<0·0001) and of fatal intracranial haemorrhage within 7 days (91 [2·7%] vs 13 [0·4%]; OR 7·14, 95% CI 3·98-12·79, p<0·0001). The relative increase in fatal intracranial haemorrhage from alteplase was similar irrespective of treatment delay, age, or stroke severity, but the absolute excess risk attributable to alteplase was bigger among patients who had more severe strokes. There was no excess in other early causes of death and no significant effect on later causes of death. Consequently, mortality at 90 days was 608 (17·9%) in the alteplase group versus 556 (16·5%) in the control group (hazard ratio 1·11, 95% CI 0·99-1·25, p=0·07). Taken together, therefore, despite an average absolute increased risk of early death from intracranial haemorrhage of about 2%, by 3-6 months this risk was offset by an average absolute increase in disability-free survival of about 10% for patients treated within 3·0 h and about 5% for patients treated after 3·0 h, up to 4·5 h. INTERPRETATION: Irrespective of age or stroke severity, and despite an increased risk of fatal intracranial haemorrhage during the first few days after treatment, alteplase significantly improves the overall odds of a good stroke outcome when delivered within 4·5 h of stroke onset, with earlier treatment associated with bigger proportional benefits. FUNDING: UK Medical Research Council, British Heart Foundation, University of Glasgow, University of Edinburgh.

Alemtuzumab-based induction treatment versus basiliximab-based induction treatment in kidney transplantation (the 3C Study): a randomised trial.

BACKGROUND: Calcineurin inhibitors (CNIs) reduce short-term kidney transplant failure, but might contribute to transplant failure in the long-term. The role of alemtuzumab (a potent lymphocyte-depleting antibody) as an induction treatment followed by an early reduction in CNI and mycophenolate exposure and steroid avoidance, after kidney transplantation is uncertain. We aimed to assess the efficacy and safety of alemtuzumab-based induction treatment compared with basiliximab-based induction treatment in patients receiving kidney transplants. METHODS: For this randomised trial, we enrolled patients aged 18 years and older who were scheduled to receive a kidney transplant in the next 24 h from 18 transplant centres in the UK. Using minimised randomisation, we randomly assigned patients (1:1; minimised for age, sex, and immunological risk) to either alemtuzumab-based induction treatment (ie, alemtuzumab followed by low-dose tacrolimus and mycophenolate without steroids) or basiliximab-based induction treatment (basiliximab followed by standard-dose tacrolimus, mycophenolate, and prednisolone). Participants were reviewed at discharge from hospital and at 1, 3, 6, 9, and 12 months after transplantation. The primary outcome was biopsy-proven acute rejection at 6 months, analysed by intention to treat. The study is registered at ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT01120028, and isrctn.org, number ISRCTN88894088. FINDINGS: Between Oct 4, 2010, and Jan 21, 2013, we randomly assigned 852 participants to treatment: 426 to alemtuzumab-based treatment and 426 to basiliximab-based treatment. Overall, individuals allocated to alemtuzumab-based treatment had a 58% proportional reduction in biopsy-proven acute rejection compared with those allocated to basiliximab-based treatment (31 [7%] patients in the alemtuzumab group vs 68 [16%] patients in the basiliximab group; hazard ratio (HR) 0·42, 95% CI 0·28-0·64; log-rank p<0·0001). We detected no between-group difference in treatment effect on transplant failure during the first 6 months (16 [4%] patients vs 13 [3%] patients; HR 1·23, 0·59-2·55; p=0·58) or serious infection (135 [32%] patients vs 136 [32%] patients; HR 1·02, 0·80-1·29; p=0·88). During the first 6 months after transplantation, 11 (3%) patients given alemtuzumab-based treatment and six (1%) patients given basiliximab-based treatment died (HR 1·79, 95% CI 0·66-4·83; p=0·25). INTERPRETATION: Compared with standard basiliximab-based treatment, alemtuzumab-based induction therapy followed by reduced CNI and mycophenolate exposure and steroid avoidance reduced the risk of biopsy-proven acute rejection in a broad range of patients receiving a kidney transplant. Long-term follow-up of this trial will assess whether these effects translate into differences in long-term transplant function and survival. FUNDING: UK National Health Service Blood and Transplant Research and Development Programme, Pfizer, and Novartis UK.

The effect of lowering LDL cholesterol on vascular access patency: post hoc analysis of the Study of Heart and Renal Protection.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: Reducing LDL cholesterol (LDL-C) with statin-based therapy reduces the risk of major atherosclerotic events among patients with CKD, including dialysis patients, but the effect of lowering LDL-C on vascular access patency is unclear. DESIGN, SETTING, PARTICIPANTS, & MEASUREMENTS: The Study of Heart and Renal Protection (SHARP) randomized patients with CKD to 20 mg simvastatin plus 10 mg ezetimibe daily versus matching placebo. This study aimed to explore the effects of treatment on vascular access occlusive events, defined as any access revision procedure, access thrombosis, removal of an old dialysis access, or formation of new permanent dialysis access. RESULTS: Among 2353 SHARP participants who had functioning vascular access at randomization, allocation to simvastatin plus ezetimibe resulted in a 13% proportional reduction in vascular access occlusive events (355 [29.7%] for simvastatin/ezetimibe versus 388 [33.5%] for placebo; risk ratio [RR], 0.87; 95% confidence interval [95% CI], 0.75 to 1.00; P=0.05). There was no evidence that the effects of treatment differed for any of the separate components of this outcome. To test the hypothesis raised by SHARP, comparable analyses were performed using the AURORA (A Study to Evaluate the Use of Rosuvastatin in Subjects on Regular Hemodialysis: An Assessment of Survival and Cardiovascular Events) trial cohort. AURORA did not provide independent confirmation (vascular access occlusive events: 352 [28.9%] for rosuvastatin versus 337 [27.6%] for placebo; RR, 1.06, 95% CI, 0.91 to 1.23; P=0.44). After combining the two trials, the overall effect of reducing LDL-C with a statin-based regimen on vascular access occlusive events was not statistically significant (707 [29.3%] with any LDL-C-lowering therapy versus 725 [30.5%] with placebo; RR, 0.95, 95% CI, 0.85 to 1.05; P=0.29). CONCLUSIONS: Exploratory analyses from SHARP suggest that lowering LDL-C with statin-based therapy may improve vascular access patency, but there was no evidence of benefit in AURORA. Taken together, the available evidence suggests that any benefits of lowering LDL-C on vascular access patency are likely to be modest.

Lack of effect of lowering LDL cholesterol on cancer: meta-analysis of individual data from 175,000 people in 27 randomised trials of statin therapy.

BACKGROUND: Statin therapy reduces the risk of occlusive vascular events, but uncertainty remains about potential effects on cancer. We sought to provide a detailed assessment of any effects on cancer of lowering LDL cholesterol (LDL-C) with a statin using individual patient records from 175,000 patients in 27 large-scale statin trials. METHODS AND FINDINGS: Individual records of 134,537 participants in 22 randomised trials of statin versus control (median duration 4.8 years) and 39,612 participants in 5 trials of more intensive versus less intensive statin therapy (median duration 5.1 years) were obtained. Reducing LDL-C with a statin for about 5 years had no effect on newly diagnosed cancer or on death from such cancers in either the trials of statin versus control (cancer incidence: 3755 [1.4% per year [py]] versus 3738 [1.4% py], RR 1.00 [95% CI 0.96-1.05]; cancer mortality: 1365 [0.5% py] versus 1358 [0.5% py], RR 1.00 [95% CI 0.93-1.08]) or in the trials of more versus less statin (cancer incidence: 1466 [1.6% py] vs 1472 [1.6% py], RR 1.00 [95% CI 0.93-1.07]; cancer mortality: 447 [0.5% py] versus 481 [0.5% py], RR 0.93 [95% CI 0.82-1.06]). Moreover, there was no evidence of any effect of reducing LDL-C with statin therapy on cancer incidence or mortality at any of 23 individual categories of sites, with increasing years of treatment, for any individual statin, or in any given subgroup. In particular, among individuals with low baseline LDL-C (<2 mmol/L), there was no evidence that further LDL-C reduction (from about 1.7 to 1.3 mmol/L) increased cancer risk (381 [1.6% py] versus 408 [1.7% py]; RR 0.92 [99% CI 0.76-1.10]). CONCLUSIONS: In 27 randomised trials, a median of five years of statin therapy had no effect on the incidence of, or mortality from, any type of cancer (or the aggregate of all cancer).

Prediction of ESRD and death among people with CKD: the Chronic Renal Impairment in Birmingham (CRIB) prospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Validated prediction scores are required to assess the risks of end-stage renal disease (ESRD) and death in individuals with chronic kidney disease (CKD). STUDY DESIGN: Prospective cohort study with validation in a separate cohort. SETTING & PARTICIPANTS: Cox regression was used to assess the relevance of baseline characteristics to risk of ESRD (mean follow-up, 4.1 years) and death (mean follow-up, 6.0 years) in 382 patients with stages 3-5 CKD not initially on dialysis therapy in the Chronic Renal Impairment in Birmingham (CRIB) Study. Resultant risk prediction equations were tested in a separate cohort of 213 patients with CKD (the East Kent cohort). FACTORS: 44 baseline characteristics (including 30 blood and urine assays). OUTCOMES: ESRD and all-cause mortality. RESULTS: In the CRIB cohort, 190 patients reached ESRD (12.1%/y) and 150 died (6.5%/y). Each 30% lower baseline estimated glomerular filtration rate was associated with a 3-fold higher ESRD rate and a 1.3-fold higher death rate. After adjustment for each other, only baseline creatinine level, serum phosphate level, urinary albumin-creatinine ratio, and female sex remained strongly (P < 0.01) predictive of ESRD. For death, age, N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide, troponin T level, and cigarette smoking remained strongly predictive of risk. Using these factors to predict outcomes in the East Kent cohort yielded an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (ie, C statistic) of 0.91 (95% CI, 0.87-0.96) for ESRD and 0.82 (95% CI, 0.75-0.89) for death. LIMITATIONS: Other important factors may have been missed because of limited study power. CONCLUSIONS: Simple laboratory measures of kidney and cardiac function plus age, sex, and smoking history can be used to help identify patients with CKD at highest risk of ESRD and death. Larger cohort studies are required to further validate these results.

Aspirin in the primary and secondary prevention of vascular disease: collaborative meta-analysis of individual participant data from randomised trials.

BACKGROUND: Low-dose aspirin is of definite and substantial net benefit for many people who already have occlusive vascular disease. We have assessed the benefits and risks in primary prevention. METHODS: We undertook meta-analyses of serious vascular events (myocardial infarction, stroke, or vascular death) and major bleeds in six primary prevention trials (95,000 individuals at low average risk, 660,000 person-years, 3554 serious vascular events) and 16 secondary prevention trials (17,000 individuals at high average risk, 43,000 person-years, 3306 serious vascular events) that compared long-term aspirin versus control. We report intention-to-treat analyses of first events during the scheduled treatment period. FINDINGS: In the primary prevention trials, aspirin allocation yielded a 12% proportional reduction in serious vascular events (0.51% aspirin vs 0.57% control per year, p=0.0001), due mainly to a reduction of about a fifth in non-fatal myocardial infarction (0.18%vs 0.23% per year, p<0.0001). The net effect on stroke was not significant (0.20%vs 0.21% per year, p=0.4: haemorrhagic stroke 0.04%vs 0.03%, p=0.05; other stroke 0.16%vs 0.18% per year, p=0.08). Vascular mortality did not differ significantly (0.19%vs 0.19% per year, p=0.7). Aspirin allocation increased major gastrointestinal and extracranial bleeds (0.10%vs 0.07% per year, p<0.0001), and the main risk factors for coronary disease were also risk factors for bleeding. In the secondary prevention trials, aspirin allocation yielded a greater absolute reduction in serious vascular events (6.7%vs 8.2% per year, p<0.0001), with a non-significant increase in haemorrhagic stroke but reductions of about a fifth in total stroke (2.08%vs 2.54% per year, p=0.002) and in coronary events (4.3%vs 5.3% per year, p<0.0001). In both primary and secondary prevention trials, the proportional reductions in the aggregate of all serious vascular events seemed similar for men and women. INTERPRETATION: In primary prevention without previous disease, aspirin is of uncertain net value as the reduction in occlusive events needs to be weighed against any increase in major bleeds. Further trials are in progress. FUNDING: UK Medical Research Council, British Heart Foundation, Cancer Research UK, and the European Community Biomed Programme.

Cross-sectional analysis of abnormalities of mineral homeostasis, vitamin D and parathyroid hormone in a cohort of pre-dialysis patients. The chronic renal impairment in Birmingham (CRIB) study.

BACKGROUND: Disturbances in mineral and vitamin D metabolism, which affect parathyroid hormone (PTH) synthesis, are well recognized in patients receiving dialysis. However, it is unclear at what stage of chronic kidney disease (CKD) these abnormalities develop. METHODS: The associations between CKD stages 3 and 5, and alterations of calcium, phosphate, vitamin D and PTH concentrations were assessed in 249 patients (mean age 61 years, 66% male) and 79 age- and sex-matched healthy controls. RESULTS: As compared to controls, serum phosphate concentrations were elevated among CKD patients (1.40 vs. 1.11 mmol/l; p < 0.0001). And levels of both 25-hydroxyvitamin D (42.1 vs. 60.4 nmol/l; p < 0.0001) and 1,25-dihydroxyvitamin D (58.2 vs. 119.5 pmol/l; p < 0.0001) were lower among patients with CKD, even among those with only stage 3 CKD and despite 73% of patients receiving vitamin D supplements. The ratio of 1,25-dihydroxy- to 25-hydroxyvitamin D was lower than controls, even among patients with stage 3 CKD (p = 0.0001), and this ratio diminished with advancing renal impairment. Concomitant elevations were observed in intact PTH (13.8 vs. 4.2 pmol/l; p < 0.0001) and whole PTH (7.9 vs. 2.7 pmol/l; p < 0.0001). CONCLUSION: Impaired conversion of 25-hydroxy- to 1,25-dihydroxyvitamin D is an early feature of renal disease, and progresses as renal function deteriorates.

Implicit theories of intelligence predict achievement across an adolescent transition: a longitudinal study and an intervention.

Two studies explored the role of implicit theories of intelligence in adolescents' mathematics achievement. In Study 1 with 373 7th graders, the belief that intelligence is malleable (incremental theory) predicted an upward trajectory in grades over the two years of junior high school, while a belief that intelligence is fixed (entity theory) predicted a flat trajectory. A mediational model including learning goals, positive beliefs about effort, and causal attributions and strategies was tested. In Study 2, an intervention teaching an incremental theory to 7th graders (N=48) promoted positive change in classroom motivation, compared with a control group (N=43). Simultaneously, students in the control group displayed a continuing downward trajectory in grades, while this decline was reversed for students in the experimental group.

The second United Kingdom Heart and Renal Protection (UK-HARP-II) Study: a randomized controlled study of the biochemical safety and efficacy of adding ezetimibe to simvastatin as initial therapy among patients with CKD.

BACKGROUND: Evaluating the effects of decreasing low-density lipoprotein (LDL) cholesterol levels requires large randomized trials. In preparation for such a trial, we assessed the biochemical efficacy, safety, and tolerability of adding ezetimibe, 10 mg/d, to simvastatin, 20 mg/d, as initial therapy for such patients. METHODS: Two hundred three patients (152 predialysis patients with creatinine levels > or = 1.7 mg/dL [> or = 150 micromol/L], 18 patients on peritoneal dialysis therapy, and 33 patients on hemodialysis therapy) were randomly assigned to the administration of simvastatin, 20 mg/d, plus ezetimibe, 10 mg/d; or simvastatin, 20 mg, plus placebo ezetimibe daily. RESULTS: After 6 months, allocation to simvastatin monotherapy was associated with a 31-mg/dL (0.8-mmol/L) decrease in nonfasting LDL cholesterol levels compared with baseline. Allocation to simvastatin plus ezetimibe produced an additional 18-mg/dL (0.47-mmol/L) decrease in LDL cholesterol level, representing an incremental 21% reduction over that achieved with simvastatin monotherapy (P < 0.0001). There were no statistically significant effects of the addition of ezetimibe to simvastatin on triglyceride or high-density lipoprotein cholesterol levels. Ezetimibe was not associated with an excess risk of abnormal liver function test results or of elevated creatine kinase levels and did not impair absorption of fat-soluble vitamins. There were no serious adverse events caused by study treatment. CONCLUSION: This 6-month study shows that the addition of ezetimibe to simvastatin, 20 mg/d, as initial therapy for patients with chronic kidney disease was well tolerated and produced an additional 21% decrease in LDL cholesterol levels. The clinical efficacy and safety of combination therapy in this population are now being assessed in a large randomized trial.