Early warning signals for predicting cryptomarket vendor success using dark net forum networks.

In this work we focus on identifying key players in dark net cryptomarkets that facilitate online trade of illegal goods. Law enforcement aims to disrupt criminal activity conducted through these markets by targeting key players vital to the market's existence and success. We particularly focus on detecting successful vendors responsible for the majority of illegal trade. Our methodology aims to uncover whether the task of key player identification should center around plainly measuring user and forum activity, or that it requires leveraging specific patterns of user communication. We focus on a large-scale dataset from the Evolution cryptomarket, which we model as an evolving communication network. Results indicate that user and forum activity, measured through topic engagement, is best able to identify successful vendors. Interestingly, considering users with higher betweenness centrality in the communication network further improves performance, also identifying successful vendors with moderate activity on the forum. But more importantly, analyzing the forum data over time, we find evidence that attaining a high betweenness score comes before vendor success. This suggests that the proposed network-driven approach of modelling user communication might prove useful as an early warning signal for key player identification.

Who's Keeping an Eye on the Kids? Changes in Monitoring During Emerging Adulthood.

Previous research indicates that parental monitoring protects adolescents from delinquency. While, emerging adults spend increasing amounts of time outside the family setting, they often remain in or return to reside in the parental home, possibly prolonging the period of parental monitoring. We examine whether parental monitoring, differentiating between child disclosure, parental solicitation, and parental control, is a protective factor for delinquency for emerging adults. We also examine whether monitoring occurs in educational settings, by the partner or in employment settings, and whether this monitoring is associated with delinquency. We use data from a longitudinal survey of 970 Dutch emerging adults (18-24 years), to examine monitoring, using instruments based on Stattin and Kerr's parental monitoring scale. Results indicate that parental monitoring is not associated with delinquency in emerging adulthood. Furthermore, we find no evidence of the protective role of monitoring in educational settings, by the partner or in employment settings. However, the negative relationship between monitoring of the self, self-control, delinquency during emerging adulthood increases in strength.

General Offending and Intimate Partner Violence Perpetration in Young Adulthood: A Dutch Longitudinal Study.

This study examines the relationship between general offending and intimate partner violence (IPV) perpetration in young adulthood, using a Dutch longitudinal study. Young adults were followed over four waves, and self-reported data on general offending, IPV perpetration, and a number of individual characteristics were collected. Results of random effects models demonstrated that young adults involved in more diverse offending behavior reported higher levels of different types of IPV perpetration, even when individual factors were taken into account. Moreover, logistic regression analyses showed that general offending was also related to an increased likelihood of continuity in IPV perpetration. Taken together, the findings indicate that it is useful to view IPV perpetration as part of a broader criminal career.

Longitudinal Validation of the Levenson Self-Report Psychopathy (LSRP) Scale in a High-Risk Dutch Community Sample.

The Levenson Self-Report Psychopathy (LSRP) scale is a self-report measure that can be used to assess psychopathic traits in community samples, and recent research suggested that its three-factor model (Egocentricity, Callousness, and Antisocial) has promising psychometric properties. However, no study to date has validated the LSRP in a longitudinal framework. The present study sought to validate the LSRP scale in a longitudinal design using a sample of Dutch emerging adults (ns = 970 and 693 at time points 1 and 2, respectively). We assessed longitudinal measurement invariance and the stability of psychopathic traits over an 18-month time period, from age 20 to age 21.6. Furthermore, we replicated and extended findings on the factor structure, reliability, and construct validity of the Dutch LSRP scale. Confirmatory factor analysis revealed that the three-factor model fit the data well. Evidence of partial longitudinal measurement invariance was observed, which means that the Dutch translation of the LSRP scale is measuring an equivalent construct (and overall latent factor structure) over time. Psychopathic traits were relatively stable over time. The three LSRP subscales showed largely acceptable levels of internal consistency at both time points and showed conceptually expected patterns of construct validity and predictive validity, with a few notable exceptions.

Gendered Perceptions of Intimate Partner Violence Normality: An Experimental Study.

Knowledge on young adults' perceptions of intimate partner violence (IPV) is important as these are the ages at which most people form their first serious intimate relationships and begin to develop norms about how to communicate within a relationship. This study uses an experimental vignette design to examine whether the type of violence employed and the gender dynamics within the couple (male perpetrator and female victim vs. female perpetrator and male victim) affect young adults' perceptions of IPV normality. Gender differences in these perceptions are assessed and moreover, we explore whether these differences can be attributed to respondents' prior IPV experiences. Young adults (N = 599) were recruited from various schools and universities throughout the Netherlands. They were randomly assigned to one of 10 experimental vignettes. Findings demonstrate that, generally, scenarios describing more serious types of IPV as well as those describing a male perpetrator and a female victim received lower ratings of normality. Gender differences in perceptions were found and, moreover, the direction of these gender differences appeared to depend on the actual gender dynamics described in the IPV scenario. Prior IPV experiences increased perceptions of IPV normality among female respondents in particular. Moreover, the suggestion that respondents' prior IPV experiences may better explain respondents' IPV perceptions than respondents' gender, was only partly supported. Our findings suggest that this is true for respondents' prior psychological, but not physical IPV experiences and for the manipulations of the gender dynamics within the couple, but not so much for the type of violence employed. Implications of these findings are discussed. From a prevention perspective, greater insight into these perceptions is relevant as they have been shown to be related to help-seeking and reporting behavior in the case of experiencing or witnessing IPV.

Developmental trajectories of offenders convicted of fraud: A follow-up to age 50 in a Dutch conviction cohort.

This study describes the criminal careers of offenders convicted of fraud, distinguishing different career dimensions such as intermittency, versatility and specialization. Results indicate that most fraud offenders are versatile in the sense that they also have significant criminal records for other serious offending (that is, not fraud). At the same time they are also specialized in fraud. When we examine developmental trajectories of serious offending and next explore patterns of fraud for the groups identified, we find that offenders in our sample represent a heterogeneous group and that the classic divide between typical financial (for example, white-collar) offenders and common criminals does not apply to the majority of our sample.

Child Protection Service interference in childhood and the relation with mental health problems and delinquency in young adulthood: a latent class analysis study.

BACKGROUND: Most multi-problem young adults (18-27 years old) have been exposed to childhood maltreatment and/or have been involved in juvenile delinquency and, therefore, could have had Child Protection Service (CPS) interference during childhood. The extent to which their childhood problems persist and evolve into young adulthood may differ substantially among cases. This might indicate heterogeneous profiles of CPS risk factors. These profiles may identify combinations of closely interrelated childhood problems which may warrant specific approaches for problem recognition and intervention in clinical practice. The aim of this study was to retrospectively identify distinct statistical classes based on CPS data of multi-problem young adults in The Netherlands and to explore whether these classes were related to current psychological dysfunctioning and delinquent behaviour. METHODS: Age at first CPS interference, numbers and types of investigations, age at first offence, mention of child maltreatment, and family supervision order measures (Dutch: ondertoezichtstelling; OTS) were extracted from the CPS records of 390 multi-problem young adult males aged 18-27 (mean age 21.7). A latent class analysis (LCA) was conducted and one-way analyses of variance and post-hoc t-tests examined whether LCA class membership was related to current self-reported psychological dysfunctioning and delinquent behaviour. RESULTS: Four latent classes were identified: (1) late CPS/penal investigation group (44.9%), (2) early CPS/multiple investigation group (30.8%), (3) late CPS interference without investigation group (14.6%), and (4) early CPS/family investigation group (9.7%). The early CPS/family investigation group reported the highest mean anxiousness/depression and substance use scores in young adulthood. No differences were found between class membership and current delinquent behaviour. CONCLUSIONS: This study extends the concept that distinct pathways are present in multi-problem young adults who underwent CPS interference in their youth. Insight into the distinct combinations of CPS risk factors in the identified subgroups may guide interventions to tailor their treatment to the specific needs of these children. Specifically, treatment of internalizing problems in children with an early onset of severe family problems and for which CPS interference is carried out should receive priority from both policy makers and clinical practice.

Girls' childhood trajectories of disruptive behavior predict adjustment problems in early adolescence.

BACKGROUND: It is widely recognized that early onset of disruptive behavior is linked to a variety of detrimental outcomes in males, later in life. In contrast, little is known about the association between girls' childhood trajectories of disruptive behavior and adjustment problems in early adolescence. METHODS: This study used nine waves of data from the ongoing Pittsburgh Girls Study. A semiparametric group-based model was used to identify trajectories of disruptive behavior in 1,513 girls from age 6 to 12 years. Adjustment problems were characterized by depression, self-harm, Post Traumatic Stress Disorder (PTSD), substance use, interpersonal aggression, sexual behavior, affiliation with delinquent peers, and academic achievement at ages 13 and 14. RESULTS: Three trajectories of childhood disruptive behavior were identified: low, medium, and high. Girls in the high group were at increased risk for depression, self-harm, PTSD, illegal substance use, interpersonal aggression, early and risky sexual behavior, and lower academic achievement. The likelihood of multiple adjustment problems increased with trajectories reflecting higher levels of disruptive behavior. CONCLUSION: Girls following the high childhood trajectory of disruptive behavior require early intervention programs to prevent multiple, adverse outcomes in adolescence and further escalation in adulthood.