Surveillance and Risk Analysis for Bovine Babesiosis in England and Wales to Inform Disease Distribution.

Babesia divergens is a zoonotic piroplasm that infects both cattle and humans in Europe. Disease transmission occurs through Ixodes ricinus tick bites, a species that is increasing in abundance and distribution across Europe in response to climate and land-use changes. Developments in agri-environment policy and changing consumer demands may also have unintended consequences on tick-borne disease rates. Currently, B. divergens surveillance in British cattle is limited, rendering temporal trend analysis and the detection of potential zoonotic hotspots impossible. The objective of this study was to assess syndromic surveillance as a means of determining babesiosis distribution in British cattle, and to evaluate the intrinsic disease risk factors in order to respond to disease threats posed by changing environments. Samples from 95 clinically affected cattle on 70 unique holdings were screened for Babesia spp., using established blood smear examination techniques and a B. divergens-specific PCR method, between April and December 2021. B. divergens was detected in 45/95 animals (47.4%), with PCR offering the advantage of identification at species level. Infection with Anaplasma phagocytophilum was detected in 19/95 animals (20%). Co-infection was detected in five animals. The cases were recorded across multiple geographic regions and throughout the sampling period. Univariate logistic regression analysis failed to identify any statistically significant risk factors for B. divergens presence. This study demonstrates that bovine babesiosis is geographically widespread throughout England and Wales, placing a large proportion of the cattle population at risk of infection, with the potential for zoonotic transmission to humans.

A risk assessment of equine piroplasmosis entry, exposure and consequences in the UK.

BACKGROUND: Equine piroplasmosis (EP) is currently not endemic in the UK, despite a lack of formal surveillance and the presence of carrier horses in the equine population. Pathogen establishment would have significant welfare and economic impacts on the national equine industry, but the disease is often overlooked by UK practitioners. OBJECTIVES: To assess the risk of disease entry, exposure and consequences to the UK equine population. STUDY DESIGN: Qualitative risk assessment. METHODS: A qualitative risk assessment was constructed utilising the current World Organisation for Animal Health (OIE) published framework for importation risk assessment, assessing the key areas of disease entry, exposure and consequences to the UK equine population. RESULTS: The overall risk of EP entry to the UK via importation of infected equidae with acute disease is very low but considered medium with subclinical carrier animals. Entry via importation of ticks or the importation of blood is considered very low. The risk of EP exposure to susceptible equidae in the UK is considered low by the infection routes of tick-bites, contaminated needles and contaminated blood, but very high via transplacental transfer. However, the consequences of EP endemic establishment are considered of high significance to the UK equine industry. MAIN LIMITATIONS: A lack of available numerical data for events and variables in disease import risk meant a qualitative assessment was the most practical method for this scenario. CONCLUSIONS: This risk assessment highlights that EP positive animals are able to enter and are currently present in the UK, and that conditions do exist that could allow forward transmission of the disease. It has highlighted a gap in existing policy where the UK falls behind OIE guidelines and has suggested steps to correct this discrepancy and improve national biosecurity.

Thermography for disease detection in livestock: A scoping review.

Infra-red thermography (IRT) offers potential opportunities as a tool for disease detection in livestock. Despite considerable research in this area, there are no common standards or protocols for managing IRT parameters in animal disease detection research. In this review, we investigate parameters that are essential to the progression of this tool and make recommendations for their use based on the literature found and the veterinary thermography guidelines from the American Academy of Thermology. We analyzed a defined set of 109 articles concerned with the use of IRT in livestock related to disease and from these articles, parameters for accurate IRT were identified and sorted into the fields of camera-, animal- or environment-related categories to assess the practices of each article in reporting parameters. This review demonstrates the inconsistencies in practice across peer-reviewed articles and reveals that some important parameters are completely unreported while others are incorrectly captured and/or under-represented in the literature. Further to this, our review highlights the lack of measured emissivity values for live animals in multiple species. We present guidelines for the standards of parameters that should be used and reported in future experiments and discuss potential opportunities and challenges associated with using IRT for disease detection in livestock.

FAIR data pipeline: provenance-driven data management for traceable scientific workflows.

Modern epidemiological analyses to understand and combat the spread of disease depend critically on access to, and use of, data. Rapidly evolving data, such as data streams changing during a disease outbreak, are particularly challenging. Data management is further complicated by data being imprecisely identified when used. Public trust in policy decisions resulting from such analyses is easily damaged and is often low, with cynicism arising where claims of 'following the science' are made without accompanying evidence. Tracing the provenance of such decisions back through open software to primary data would clarify this evidence, enhancing the transparency of the decision-making process. Here, we demonstrate a Findable, Accessible, Interoperable and Reusable (FAIR) data pipeline. Although developed during the COVID-19 pandemic, it allows easy annotation of any data as they are consumed by analyses, or conversely traces the provenance of scientific outputs back through the analytical or modelling source code to primary data. Such a tool provides a mechanism for the public, and fellow scientists, to better assess scientific evidence by inspecting its provenance, while allowing scientists to support policymakers in openly justifying their decisions. We believe that such tools should be promoted for use across all areas of policy-facing research. This article is part of the theme issue 'Technical challenges of modelling real-life epidemics and examples of overcoming these'.

Does having a cat in your house increase your risk of catching COVID-19?

Due to the zoonotic origin of SARS-Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), the potential for its transmission from humans back to animals and the possibility that it might establish ongoing infection pathways in other animal species has been discussed. Cats are highly susceptible to SARS-CoV-2 and were shown experimentally to transmit the virus to other cats. Infection of cats has been widely reported. Domestic cats in COVID-19-positive households could therefore be a part of a human to animal to human transmission pathway. Here, we report the results of a qualitative risk assessment focusing on the potential of cat to human transmission in such settings. The assessment was based on evidence available by October 2021. After the introduction of SARS-CoV-2 to a household by a human, cats may become infected and infected cats may pose an additional infection risk for other members of the household. In order to assess this additional risk qualitatively, expert opinion was elicited within the framework of a modified Delphi procedure. The conclusion was that the additional risk of infection of an additional person in a household associated with keeping a domestic cat is very low to negligible, depending on the intensity of cat-to-human interactions. The separation of cats from humans suffering from SARS-CoV-2 infection should contribute to preventing further transmission.

The COVID-19 Pandemic and Global Food Security.

We present scientific perspectives on the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and global food security. International organizations and current evidence based on other respiratory viruses suggests COVID-19 is not a food safety issue, i.e., there is no evidence associating food or food packaging with the transmission of the virus causing COVID-19 (SARS-CoV-2), yet an abundance of precaution for this exposure route seems appropriate. The pandemic, however, has had a dramatic impact on the food system, with direct and indirect consequences on lives and livelihoods of people, plants, and animals. Given the complexity of the system at risk, it is likely that some of these consequences are still to emerge over time. To date, the direct and indirect consequences of the pandemic have been substantial including restrictions on agricultural workers, planting, current and future harvests; shifts in agricultural livelihoods and food availability; food safety; plant and animal health and animal welfare; human nutrition and health; along with changes in public policies. All aspects are crucial to food security that would require "One Health" approaches as the concept may be able to manage risks in a cost-effective way with cross-sectoral, coordinated investments in human, environmental, and animal health. Like climate change, the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic will be most acutely felt by the poorest and most vulnerable countries and communities. Ultimately, to prepare for future outbreaks or threats to food systems, we must take into account the Sustainable Development Goals of the United Nations and a "Planetary Health" perspective.

Association between the administration of phenylbutazone prior to racing and musculoskeletal and fatal injuries in Thoroughbred racehorses in Argentina.

OBJECTIVE: To examine the association between prerace administration of phenylbutazone and the risk of musculoskeletal injury (MSI) and fatal injury in Thoroughbred racehorses that raced between 2006 and 2015 at 2 of the 4 official racetracks in Argentina. SAMPLE: Data from racetrack databases and veterinary reports on 283,193 race starts. PROCEDURES: Data were collected relating to race performance and injury outcomes for starts at these tracks. The incidence of MSI and fatal injury was calculated for each year, stratified by the declared prerace administration of phenylbutazone. Univariable logistic regression, followed by multivariable logistic regression, was used to identify significant risk factors for both MSI and fatal injury. RESULTS: Analyses identified associations between the declared prerace administration of phenylbutazone and the risk of MSI and fatal injury during racing. Horses with declared prerace phenylbutazone administration had greater odds of MSI (OR, 1.45 [95% CI, 1.03 to 2.04]) and fatal injury (OR, 1.59 [95% CI, 1.1 to 2.27]) than did horses racing without prerace phenylbutazone administration. These associations remained significant when other risk factors were accounted for in both multivariable models. CONCLUSIONS AND CLINICAL RELEVANCE: Results suggested an association between the prerace administration of phenylbutazone and the risk of MSI and fatal injury in Thoroughbred racehorses during racing. Although these results did not imply a direct causal relationship between prerace phenylbutazone administration and injury, they may be considered in the development of more conservative medication policies to optimize racehorse welfare in North and Latin America.

A Tool for Prioritizing Livestock Disease Threats to Scotland.

There are a number of disease threats to the livestock of Scotland that are not presently believed to be circulating in the UK. Here, we present the development of a tool for prioritizing resources for livestock disease threats to Scotland by combining a semi-quantitative model of the chance of introduction of different diseases with a semi-quantitative model of disease impact. Eighteen key diseases were identified and then input into a model framework to produce a semi-quantitative estimate of disease priorities. We estimate this through a model of the potential impacts of the infectious diseases in Scotland that is interpreted alongside a pre-existing generic risk assessment model of the risks of incursion of the diseases. The impact estimates are based on key metrics which influence the practical impact of disease. Metrics included are the rate of spread, the disease mitigation factors, impacts on animal welfare and production, the human health risks and the impacts on wider society. These quantities were adjusted for the size of the Scottish livestock population and were weighted using published scores. Of the 18 livestock diseases included, the model identifies highly pathogenic avian influenza, foot and mouth disease in cattle and bluetongue virus in sheep as having the greatest priority in terms of the combination of chance of introduction and disease impact. Disregarding the weighting for livestock populations and comparing equally between industry sectors, the results demonstrate that Newcastle disease and highly pathogenic avian influenza generally have the greatest potential impact. This model provides valuable information for the veterinary and livestock industries in prioritizing resources in the face of many disease threats. The system can easily be adjusted as disease situations evolve.

EPIC, Scottish Government's Centre of Expertise in Animal Disease Outbreaks: A Model for Provision of Risk-Based Evidence to Policy.

EPIC, Scottish Government's Centre of Expertise on Animal Disease Outbreaks, offers a successful and innovative model for provision of scientific advice and analysis to policy-makers in Scotland. In this paper, we describe EPIC's remit and operations, and reflect on three case studies which illustrate how the Centre of Expertise Model provides risk-based evidence through rapid access to emergency advice and analyses, estimating disease risks and improving disease detection, assessing different disease control options, and improving future risk resilience. The successes and challenges faced by EPIC and its members offer useful lessons for animal health researchers and authorities, working in contingency planning for animal health security in other countries.

The Risk of Foot and Mouth Disease Transmission Posed by Public Access to the Countryside During an Outbreak.

During the 2001 UK FMD outbreak, local authorities restricted rural access to try to prevent further disease spread by people and animals, which had major socio-economic consequences for rural communities. This study describes the results of qualitative veterinary risk assessments to assess the likelihood of different recreational activities causing new outbreaks of foot and mouth disease, as part of contingency planning for future outbreaks. For most activities, the likelihood of causing new outbreaks of foot and mouth disease is considered to vary from very low to medium depending on the control zone (which is based on distance to the nearest infected premises), assuming compliance with specified mitigation strategies. The likelihood of new outbreaks associated with hunting, shooting, stalking, and equestrian activities is considered to be greater. There are areas of significant uncertainty associated with data paucity, particularly regarding the likelihood of transmission via fomites. This study provides scientific evidence to underpin refinement of rural access management plans and inform decision-making in future disease outbreaks.

Animal Health Surveillance in Scotland in 2030: Using Scenario Planning to Develop Strategies in the Context of "Brexit".

Animal health surveillance is necessary to protect human and animal health, rural economies, and the environment from the consequences of large-scale disease outbreaks. In Scotland, since the Kinnaird review in 2011, efforts have been made to engage with stakeholders to ensure that the strategic goals of surveillance are better aligned with the needs of the end-users and other beneficiaries. The aims of this study were to engage with Scottish surveillance stakeholders and multidisciplinary experts to inform the future long-term strategy for animal health surveillance in Scotland. In this paper, we describe the use of scenario planning as an effective tool for the creation and exploration of five plausible long-term futures; we describe prioritization of critical drivers of change (i.e., international trade policy, data-sharing philosophies, and public versus private resourcing of surveillance capacity) that will unpredictably influence the future implementation of animal health surveillance activities. We present 10 participant-developed strategies to support 3 long-term visions to improve future resilience of animal health surveillance and contingency planning for animal and zoonotic disease outbreaks in Scotland. In the absence of any certainty about the nature of post-Brexit trade agreements for agriculture, participants considered the best investments for long-term resilience to include data collection strategies to improve animal health benchmarking, user-benefit strategies to improve digital literacy in farming communities, and investment strategies to increase veterinary and scientific research capacity in rural areas. This is the first scenario planning study to explore stakeholder beliefs and perceptions about important environmental, technological, societal, political, and legal drivers (in addition to epidemiological "risk factors") and effective strategies to manage future uncertainties for both the Scottish livestock industry and animal health surveillance after Brexit. This insight from stakeholders is important to improve uptake and implementation of animal heath surveillance activities and the future resilience of the livestock industry. The conclusions drawn from this study are applicable not only to Scotland but to other countries and international organizations involved in global animal health surveillance activities.

Model-Based Policymaking: A Framework to Promote Ethical "Good Practice" in Mathematical Modeling for Public Health Policymaking.

Mathematical models are increasingly relied upon as decision support tools, which estimate risks and generate recommendations to underpin public health policies. However, there are no formal agreements about what constitutes professional competencies or duties in mathematical modeling for public health. In this article, we propose a framework to evaluate whether mathematical models that assess human and animal disease risks and control strategies meet standards consistent with ethical "good practice" and are thus "fit for purpose" as evidence in support of policy. This framework is derived from principles of biomedical ethics: independence, transparency (autonomy), beneficence/non-maleficence, and justice. We identify ethical risks associated with model development and implementation and consider the extent to which scientists are accountable for the translation and communication of model results to policymakers so that the strengths and weaknesses of the scientific evidence base and any socioeconomic and ethical impacts of biased or uncertain predictions are clearly understood. We propose principles to operationalize a framework for ethically sound model development and risk communication between scientists and policymakers. These include the creation of science-policy partnerships to mutually define policy questions and communicate results; development of harmonized international standards for model development; and data stewardship and improvement of the traceability and transparency of models via a searchable archive of policy-relevant models. Finally, we suggest that bespoke ethical advisory groups, with relevant expertise and access to these resources, would be beneficial as a bridge between science and policy, advising modelers of potential ethical risks and providing overview of the translation of modeling advice into policy.

Using national movement databases to help inform responses to swine disease outbreaks in Scotland: the impact of uncertainty around incursion time.

Modelling is an important component of contingency planning and control of disease outbreaks. Dynamic network models are considered more useful than static models because they capture important dynamic patterns of farm behaviour as evidenced through animal movements. This study evaluates the usefulness of a dynamic network model of swine fever to predict pre-detection spread via movements of pigs, when there may be considerable uncertainty surrounding the time of incursion of infection. It explores the utility and limitations of animal movement data to inform such models and as such, provides some insight into the impact of improving traceability through real-time animal movement reporting and the use of electronic animal movement databases. The study concludes that the type of premises and uncertainty of the time of disease incursion will affect model accuracy and highlights the need for improvements in these areas.

Scenario planning: The future of the cattle and sheep industries in Scotland and their resiliency to disease.

In this paper, we present a description of foresighting activities undertaken by EPIC, Scotland's Centre of Expertise on Animal Disease Outbreaks, to investigate the future uncertainty of animal health security in the Scottish sheep and cattle sectors. Using scenario planning methodologies, we explored four plausible but provocative long-term futures which identify dynamics underpinning the resilience of these agricultural sectors to animal disease. These scenarios highlight a number of important drivers that influence disease resilience: industry demographics, the role of government support and regulation and the capacity for technological innovation to support the industry to meet local and global market demand. Participants in the scenario planning exercises proposed creative, robust strategies that policy makers could consider implementing now to enhance disease control and industry resilience in multiple, uncertain futures. Using these participant-led strategies as a starting point, we offer ten key questions for policy makers and stakeholders to provoke further discussion about improving resiliency and disease preparedness. We conclude with a brief discussion of the value of scenario planning, not only for the development of futures which will inform disease contingency plans and improve industry resilience, but as a mechanism for dialogue and information sharing between stakeholders and government.

Risk factors for epistaxis in jump racing in Great Britain (2001-2009).

The aim of this study was to evaluate risk factors associated with developing epistaxis in jump racing in Great Britain (GB). A retrospective analysis of records from horses running in all hurdle and steeplechase races in GB between 2001 and 2009 identified diagnoses of epistaxis whilst still at the racecourse. Data were used from 603 starts resulting in epistaxis (event) and 169,065 starts resulting in no epistaxis (non-event) in hurdle racing, and from 550 event starts and 102,344 non-event starts in steeplechase racing. Two multivariable logistic regression models to evaluate risk factors associated with epistaxis were produced. The potential effect of clustering of data (within horse, horse dam, horse sire, trainer, jockey, course, race and race meet) on the associations between risk factors and epistaxis was examined using mixed-effects models. Multiple factors associated with increased risk of epistaxis were identified. Those identified in both types of jump racing included running on firmer ground; horses with >75% of career starts in flat racing and a previous episode of epistaxis recorded during racing. Risk factors identified only in hurdle racing included racing in the spring and increased age at first race; and those identified only in steeplechase racing included running in a claiming race and more starts in the previous 3-6 months. The risk factors identified provide important information about the risk of developing epistaxis. Multiple avenues for further investigation are highlighted, including unmeasured variables at the level of the racecourse. The results of this study can be used to guide the development of interventions to minimise the risk of epistaxis in jump racing.

How commercial and non-commercial swine producers move pigs in Scotland: a detailed descriptive analysis.

BACKGROUND: The impact of non-commercial producers on disease spread via livestock movement is related to their level of interaction with other commercial actors within the industry. Although understanding these relationships is crucial in order to identify likely routes of disease incursion and transmission prior to disease detection, there has been little research in this area due to the difficulties of capturing movements of small producers with sufficient resolution. Here, we used the Scottish Livestock Electronic Identification and Traceability (ScotEID) database to describe the movement patterns of different pig production systems which may affect the risk of disease spread within the swine industry. In particular, we focused on the role of small pig producers. RESULTS: Between January 2012 and May 2013, 23,169 batches of pigs were recorded moving animals between 2382 known unique premises. Although the majority of movements (61%) were to a slaughterhouse, the non-commercial and the commercial sectors of the Scottish swine industry coexist, with on- and off-movement of animals occurring relatively frequently. For instance, 13% and 4% of non-slaughter movements from professional producers were sent to a non-assured commercial producer or to a small producer, respectively; whereas 43% and 22% of movements from non-assured commercial farms were sent to a professional or a small producer, respectively. We further identified differences between producer types in several animal movement characteristics which are known to increase the risk of disease spread. Particularly, the distance travelled and the use of haulage were found to be significantly different between producers. CONCLUSIONS: These results showed that commercial producers are not isolated from the non-commercial sector of the Scottish swine industry and may frequently interact, either directly or indirectly. The observed patterns in the frequency of movements, the type of producers involved, the distance travelled and the use of haulage companies provide insights into the structure of the Scottish swine industry, but also highlight different features that may increase the risk of infectious diseases spread in both Scotland and the UK. Such knowledge is critical for developing more robust biosecurity and surveillance plans and better preparing Scotland against incursions of emerging swine diseases.

An online survey of horse-owners in Great Britain.

BACKGROUND: Contingency planning for potential equine infectious disease outbreaks relies on accurate information on horse location and movements to estimate the risk of dissemination of disease(s). An online questionnaire was used to obtain unique information linking owner and horse location to characteristics of horse movements within and outwith Great Britain (GB). RESULTS: This online survey yielded a strong response, providing more than four times the target number of respondents (1000 target respondents) living in all parts of GB. Key demographic findings of this study indicated that horses which were kept on livery yards and riding schools were likely to be found in urban environments, some distance away from the owner's home and vaccinated against influenza and herpes virus. Survey respondents were likely to travel greater than 10 miles to attend activities such as eventing or endurance but were also likely to travel and return home within a single day (58.6%, 2063/3522). This may affect the geographical extent and speed of disease spread, if large numbers of people from disparate parts of the country are attending the same event and the disease agent is highly infectious or virulent. The greatest risk for disease introduction and spread may be represented by a small proportion of people who import or travel internationally with their horses. These respondents were likely to have foreign horse passports, which were not necessarily recorded in the National Equine Database (NED), making the location of these horses untraceable. CONCLUSIONS: These results illustrate the difficulties which exist with national GB horse traceability despite the existence of the NED and the horse passport system. This study also demonstrates that an online approach could be adopted to obtain important demographic data on GB horse owners on a more routine and frequent basis to inform decisions or policy pertaining to equine disease control. This represents a reasonable alternative to collection of GB horse location and movement data given that the NED no longer exists and there is no immediate plan to replace it.

Summary of current knowledge of the size and spatial distribution of the horse population within Great Britain.

BACKGROUND: Robust demographic information is important to understanding the risk of introduction and spread of exotic diseases as well as the development of effective disease control strategies, but is often based on datasets collected for other purposes. Thus, it is important to validate, or at least cross-reference these datasets to other sources to assess whether they are being used appropriately. The aim of this study was to use horse location data collected from different contributing industry sectors ("Stakeholder horse data") to calibrate the spatial distribution of horses as indicated by owner locations registered in the National Equine Database (the NED). RESULTS: A conservative estimate for the accurately geo-located NED horse population within GB is approximately 840,000 horses. This is likely to be an underestimate because of the exclusion of horses due to age or location criteria. In both datasets, horse density was higher in England and Wales than in Scotland. The high density of horses located in urban areas as indicated in the NED is consistent with previous reports indicating that owner location cannot always be viewed as a direct substitute for horse location. Otherwise, at a regional resolution, there are few differences between the datasets. There are inevitable biases in the stakeholder data, and leisure horses that are unaffiliated to major stakeholders are not included in these data. Despite this, the similarity in distributions of these datasets is re-assuring, suggesting that there are few regional biases in the NED. CONCLUSIONS: Our analyses suggest that stakeholder data could be used to monitor possible changes in horse demographics. Given such changes in horse demographics and the advantages of stakeholder data (which include annual updates and accurate horse location), it may be appropriate to use these data for future disease modelling in conjunction with, if not in place of the NED.

Postoperative race performance is not correlated with degree of surgical abduction after laryngoplasty in National Hunt Thoroughbred racehorses.

OBJECTIVES: To (1) assess the degree of arytenoid cartilage abduction lost after laryngoplasty (LP) in Thoroughbred National Hunt racehorses and (2) to correlate postoperative racing performance with degree of arytenoid abduction after LP. STUDY DESIGN: Case series. ANIMALS: National Hunt Thoroughbred racehorses (n=68). METHODS: Grade of postoperative arytenoid abduction for National Hunt racehorses that had LP with ventriculocordectomy was assessed at 1 day, 6 days, and 6 weeks after LP. Race records were analyzed to ascertain if there was correlation between the degree of arytenoid cartilage abduction and various measures of race performance (return to racing postoperatively, total earnings in 5 races immediately postoperatively, and lifetime number of starts postoperatively). RESULTS: Median postoperative arytenoid abduction was grade 2 on day 1 but had decreased to grade 3 by 6 weeks. Horses with grades 1, 2, and 3 abduction 1 day after surgery had median losses of 1, 1, and 0.5 abduction grades, respectively, at 6 weeks. Horses with grade 1 abduction on day 1 were significantly more likely to lose abduction by day 6 after surgery than horses with grade 3 abduction on day 1. There was no statistically significant correlation between the postoperative grade of arytenoid abduction at any time point and earnings in 5 races after surgery, likelihood of racing postoperatively, or total number of lifetime race starts postoperatively. CONCLUSIONS: Horses with maximal (grade 1) surgical arytenoid abduction are significantly more likely to suffer postoperative loss of abduction than those with grade 3 abduction. Postoperative grade of abduction does not appear significantly correlated with markers of racing performance in National Hunt racehorses; however, very few horses with poor (grade 4 or 5) abduction were included and thus conclusions regarding racing performance in such horses cannot be drawn from this study. CLINICAL RELEVANCE: Seemingly, most horses with grade 3 laryngeal abduction can race successfully and perhaps surgeons should not be disillusioned by the appearance of only moderate (grade 3) abduction in the long term after LP in racehorses.