A harmonized database of European forest simulations under climate change.

Process-based forest models combine biological, physical, and chemical process understanding to simulate forest dynamics as an emergent property of the system. As such, they are valuable tools to investigate the effects of climate change on forest ecosystems. Specifically, they allow testing of hypotheses regarding long-term ecosystem dynamics and provide means to assess the impacts of climate scenarios on future forest development. As a consequence, numerous local-scale simulation studies have been conducted over the past decades to assess the impacts of climate change on forests. These studies apply the best available models tailored to local conditions, parameterized and evaluated by local experts. However, this treasure trove of knowledge on climate change responses remains underexplored to date, as a consistent and harmonized dataset of local model simulations is missing. Here, our objectives were (i) to compile existing local simulations on forest development under climate change in Europe in a common database, (ii) to harmonize them to a common suite of output variables, and (iii) to provide a standardized vector of auxiliary environmental variables for each simulated location to aid subsequent investigations. Our dataset of European stand- and landscape-level forest simulations contains over 1.1 million simulation runs representing 135 million simulation years for more than 13,000 unique locations spread across Europe. The data were harmonized to consistently describe forest development in terms of stand structure (dominant height), composition (dominant species, admixed species), and functioning (leaf area index). Auxiliary variables provided include consistent daily climate information (temperature, precipitation, radiation, vapor pressure deficit) as well as information on local site conditions (soil depth, soil physical properties, soil water holding capacity, plant-available nitrogen). The present dataset facilitates analyses across models and locations, with the aim to better harness the valuable information contained in local simulations for large-scale policy support, and for fostering a deeper understanding of the effects of climate change on forest ecosystems in Europe.

A new approach to derive productivity of tropical forests using radar remote sensing measurements.

Deriving gross & net primary productivity (GPP & NPP) and carbon turnover time of forests from remote sensing remains challenging. This study presents a novel approach to estimate forest productivity by combining radar remote sensing measurements, machine learning and an individual-based forest model. In this study, we analyse the role of different spatial resolutions on predictions in the context of the Radar BIOMASS mission (by ESA). In our analysis, we use the forest gap model FORMIND in combination with a boosted regression tree (BRT) to explore how spatial biomass distributions can be used to predict GPP, NPP and carbon turnover time (τ) at different resolutions. We simulate different spatial biomass resolutions (4 ha, 1 ha and 0.04 ha) in combination with different vertical resolutions (20, 10 and 2 m). Additionally, we analysed the robustness of this approach and applied it to disturbed and mature forests. Disturbed forests have a strong influence on the predictions which leads to high correlations (R2 > 0.8) at the spatial scale of 4 ha and 1 ha. Increased vertical resolution leads generally to better predictions for productivity (GPP & NPP). Increasing spatial resolution leads to better predictions for mature forests and lower correlations for disturbed forests. Our results emphasize the value of the forthcoming BIOMASS satellite mission and highlight the potential of deriving estimates for forest productivity from information on forest structure. If applied to more and larger areas, the approach might ultimately contribute to a better understanding of forest ecosystems.

Accuracy, realism and general applicability of European forest models.

Forest models are instrumental for understanding and projecting the impact of climate change on forests. A considerable number of forest models have been developed in the last decades. However, few systematic and comprehensive model comparisons have been performed in Europe that combine an evaluation of modelled carbon and water fluxes and forest structure. We evaluate 13 widely used, state-of-the-art, stand-scale forest models against field measurements of forest structure and eddy-covariance data of carbon and water fluxes over multiple decades across an environmental gradient at nine typical European forest stands. We test the models' performance in three dimensions: accuracy of local predictions (agreement of modelled and observed annual data), realism of environmental responses (agreement of modelled and observed responses of daily gross primary productivity to temperature, radiation and vapour pressure deficit) and general applicability (proportion of European tree species covered). We find that multiple models are available that excel according to our three dimensions of model performance. For the accuracy of local predictions, variables related to forest structure have lower random and systematic errors than annual carbon and water flux variables. Moreover, the multi-model ensemble mean provided overall more realistic daily productivity responses to environmental drivers across all sites than any single individual model. The general applicability of the models is high, as almost all models are currently able to cover Europe's common tree species. We show that forest models complement each other in their response to environmental drivers and that there are several cases in which individual models outperform the model ensemble. Our framework provides a first step to capturing essential differences between forest models that go beyond the most commonly used accuracy of predictions. Overall, this study provides a point of reference for future model work aimed at predicting climate impacts and supporting climate mitigation and adaptation measures in forests.

Tackling unresolved questions in forest ecology: The past and future role of simulation models.

Understanding the processes that shape forest functioning, structure, and diversity remains challenging, although data on forest systems are being collected at a rapid pace and across scales. Forest models have a long history in bridging data with ecological knowledge and can simulate forest dynamics over spatio-temporal scales unreachable by most empirical investigations.We describe the development that different forest modelling communities have followed to underpin the leverage that simulation models offer for advancing our understanding of forest ecosystems.Using three widely applied but contrasting approaches - species distribution models, individual-based forest models, and dynamic global vegetation models - as examples, we show how scientific and technical advances have led models to transgress their initial objectives and limitations. We provide an overview of recent model applications on current important ecological topics and pinpoint ten key questions that could, and should, be tackled with forest models in the next decade.Synthesis. This overview shows that forest models, due to their complementarity and mutual enrichment, represent an invaluable toolkit to address a wide range of fundamental and applied ecological questions, hence fostering a deeper understanding of forest dynamics in the context of global change.

Towards a New Generation of Trait-Flexible Vegetation Models.

Plant trait variability, emerging from eco-evolutionary dynamics that range from alleles to macroecological scales, is one of the most elusive, but possibly most consequential, aspects of biodiversity. Plasticity, epigenetics, and genetic diversity are major determinants of how plants will respond to climate change, yet these processes are rarely represented in current vegetation models. Here, we provide an overview of the challenges associated with understanding the causes and consequences of plant trait variability, and review current developments to include plasticity and evolutionary mechanisms in vegetation models. We also present a roadmap of research priorities to develop a next generation of vegetation models with flexible traits. Including trait variability in vegetation models is necessary to better represent biosphere responses to global change.

From small-scale forest structure to Amazon-wide carbon estimates.

Tropical forests play an important role in the global carbon cycle. High-resolution remote sensing techniques, e.g., spaceborne lidar, can measure complex tropical forest structures, but it remains a challenge how to interpret such information for the assessment of forest biomass and productivity. Here, we develop an approach to estimate basal area, aboveground biomass and productivity within Amazonia by matching 770,000 GLAS lidar (ICESat) profiles with forest simulations considering spatial heterogeneous environmental and ecological conditions. This allows for deriving frequency distributions of key forest attributes for the entire Amazon. This detailed interpretation of remote sensing data improves estimates of forest attributes by 20-43% as compared to (conventional) estimates using mean canopy height. The inclusion of forest modeling has a high potential to close a missing link between remote sensing measurements and the 3D structure of forests, and may thereby improve continent-wide estimates of biomass and productivity.

The dimensionality of stability depends on disturbance type.

Ecosystems respond in various ways to disturbances. Quantifying ecological stability therefore requires inspecting multiple stability properties, such as resistance, recovery, persistence and invariability. Correlations among these properties can reduce the dimensionality of stability, simplifying the study of environmental effects on ecosystems. A key question is how the kind of disturbance affects these correlations. We here investigated the effect of three disturbance types (random, species-specific, local) applied at four intensity levels, on the dimensionality of stability at the population and community level. We used previously parameterized models that represent five natural communities, varying in species richness and the number of trophic levels. We found that disturbance type but not intensity affected the dimensionality of stability and only at the population level. The dimensionality of stability also varied greatly among species and communities. Therefore, studying stability cannot be simplified to using a single metric and multi-dimensional assessments are still to be recommended.

Tree mortality submodels drive simulated long-term forest dynamics: assessing 15 models from the stand to global scale.

Models are pivotal for assessing future forest dynamics under the impacts of changing climate and management practices, incorporating representations of tree growth, mortality, and regeneration. Quantitative studies on the importance of mortality submodels are scarce. We evaluated 15 dynamic vegetation models (DVMs) regarding their sensitivity to different formulations of tree mortality under different degrees of climate change. The set of models comprised eight DVMs at the stand scale, three at the landscape scale, and four typically applied at the continental to global scale. Some incorporate empirically derived mortality models, and others are based on experimental data, whereas still others are based on theoretical reasoning. Each DVM was run with at least two alternative mortality submodels. Model behavior was evaluated against empirical time series data, and then, the models were subjected to different scenarios of climate change. Most DVMs matched empirical data quite well, irrespective of the mortality submodel that was used. However, mortality submodels that performed in a very similar manner against past data often led to sharply different trajectories of forest dynamics under future climate change. Most DVMs featured high sensitivity to the mortality submodel, with deviations of basal area and stem numbers on the order of 10-40% per century under current climate and 20-170% under climate change. The sensitivity of a given DVM to scenarios of climate change, however, was typically lower by a factor of two to three. We conclude that (1) mortality is one of the most uncertain processes when it comes to assessing forest response to climate change, and (2) more data and a better process understanding of tree mortality are needed to improve the robustness of simulated future forest dynamics. Our study highlights that comparing several alternative mortality formulations in DVMs provides valuable insights into the effects of process uncertainties on simulated future forest dynamics.

The importance of forest structure to biodiversity-productivity relationships.

While various relationships between productivity and biodiversity are found in forests, the processes underlying these relationships remain unclear and theory struggles to coherently explain them. In this work, we analyse diversity-productivity relationships through an examination of forest structure (described by basal area and tree height heterogeneity). We use a new modelling approach, called 'forest factory', which generates various forest stands and calculates their annual productivity (above-ground wood increment). Analysing approximately 300 000 forest stands, we find that mean forest productivity does not increase with species diversity. Instead forest structure emerges as the key variable. Similar patterns can be observed by analysing 5054 forest plots of the German National Forest Inventory. Furthermore, we group the forest stands into nine forest structure classes, in which we find increasing, decreasing, invariant and even bell-shaped relationships between productivity and diversity. In addition, we introduce a new index, called optimal species distribution, which describes the ratio of realized to the maximal possible productivity (by shuffling species identities). The optimal species distribution and forest structure indices explain the obtained productivity values quite well (R2 between 0.7 and 0.95), whereby the influence of these attributes varies within the nine forest structure classes.