Haplotype reconstruction error as a classical misclassification problem: introducing sensitivity and specificity as error measures.

BACKGROUND: Statistically reconstructing haplotypes from single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) genotypes, can lead to falsely classified haplotypes. This can be an issue when interpreting haplotype association results or when selecting subjects with certain haplotypes for subsequent functional studies. It was our aim to quantify haplotype reconstruction error and to provide tools for it. METHODS AND RESULTS: By numerous simulation scenarios, we systematically investigated several error measures, including discrepancy, error rate, and R(2), and introduced the sensitivity and specificity to this context. We exemplified several measures in the KORA study, a large population-based study from Southern Germany. We find that the specificity is slightly reduced only for common haplotypes, while the sensitivity was decreased for some, but not all rare haplotypes. The overall error rate was generally increasing with increasing number of loci, increasing minor allele frequency of SNPs, decreasing correlation between the alleles and increasing ambiguity. CONCLUSIONS: We conclude that, with the analytical approach presented here, haplotype-specific error measures can be computed to gain insight into the haplotype uncertainty. This method provides the information, if a specific risk haplotype can be expected to be reconstructed with rather no or high misclassification and thus on the magnitude of expected bias in association estimates. We also illustrate that sensitivity and specificity separate two dimensions of the haplotype reconstruction error, which completely describe the misclassification matrix and thus provide the prerequisite for methods accounting for misclassification.

Calpain-10 variants and haplotypes are associated with polycystic ovary syndrome in Caucasians.

PCOS is known to be associated with an increased risk of T2DM and has been proposed to share a common genetic background with T2DM. Recent studies suggest that the Calpain-10 gene (CAPN10) is an interesting candidate gene for PCOS susceptibility. However, contradictory results were reported concerning the contribution of certain CAPN10 variants, especially of UCSNP-44, to genetic predisposition to T2DM, hirsutism, and PCOS. By means of MALDI-TOF MS technique, we genotyped an expanded single nucleotide polymorphism panel, including the CAPN10 UCSNP-44, -43, -56, ins/del-19, -110, -58, -63, and -22 in a sample of 146 German PCOS women and 606 population-based controls. Statistical analysis revealed an association between UCSNP-56 and susceptibility to PCOS with an odds ratio (OR) of 2.91 (95% CI=1.51-5.61) for women carrying an AA genotype compared with GG. As expected, the 22-genotype of the ins/del-19 variant, which is in high linkage disequilibrium (r2=0.98) with UCSNP-56, was also significantly associated (OR=2.98, 95% CI=1.55-5.73). None of the additionally tested variants alone showed any significant association with PCOS. A meta-analysis including our study (altogether 623 PCOS cases and 1,224 controls) also showed significant association only with ins/del-19. The most common haplotype TGG3AGCA was significantly associated with a lower risk for PCOS (OR=0.487, P=0.0057). In contrast, the TGA2AGCA haplotype was associated with an increased risk for PCOS (OR=3.557, P=0.0011). By investigating a broad panel of CAPN10 variants, our results pointed to an allele dose-dependent association of UCSNP-56 and ins/del-19 with PCOS.