Analysis of the air pollution reduction and climate change mitigation effects of the Three-Year Action Plan for Blue Skies on the "2+26" Cities in China.

City clusters play an important role in air pollutant and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions reduction in China, primarily due to their high fossil energy consumption levels. The "2 + 26" Cities, i.e., Beijing, Tianjin and 26 other perfectures in northern China, has experienced serious air pollution in recent years. We employ the Greenhouse Gas and Air Pollution Interactions and Synergies model adapted to the "2 + 26" Cities (GAINS-JJJ) to evaluate the impacts of structural adjustments in four major sectors, industry, energy, transport and land use, under the Three-Year Action Plan for Blue Skies (Three-Year Action Plan) on the emissions of both the major air pollutants and CO2 in the "2 + 26" Cities. The results indicate that the Three-Year Action Plan applied in the "2 + 26" Cities reduces the total emissions of primary fine particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter of ≤ 2.5 µm (PM2.5), SO2, NOx, NH3 and CO2 by 17%, 25%, 21%, 3% and 1%, respectively, from 2017 to 2020. The emission reduction potentials vary widely across the 28 prefectures, which may be attributed to the differences in energy structure, industrial composition, and policy enforcement rate. Among the four sectors, adjustment of industrial structure attains the highest co-benefits of CO2 reduction and air pollution control due to its high CO2 reduction potential, while structural adjustments in energy and transport attain much lower co-benefits, despite their relatively high air pollutant emissions reductions, primarily resulting from an increase in the coal-electric load and associated carbon emissions caused by electric reform policies..

On-Road NOx and Smoke Emissions of Diesel Light Commercial Vehicles-Combining Remote Sensing Measurements from across Europe.

Light commercial vehicles (LCVs) account for about 10-15% of road traffic in Europe. There have only been few investigations on their on-road emission performance. Here, on-road remote sensing vehicle emission measurements from 18 locations across four European countries are combined for a comprehensive analysis of NOx and smoke emission rates from diesel LCV in the past two decades. This allows differentiating the performance by emission standards, model years, curb weights, engine loads, manufacturers, vehicle age, and temperature, as well as by measurement devices. We find a general consistency between devices and countries. On-road NOx emission rates have been much higher than type approval limit values for all manufacturers, but some perform systematically better than others. Emission rates have gone down only with the introduction of Euro 6a-b emission standards since the year 2015. Smoke emission rates are considered a proxy for particulate emissions. Their emissions have decrease substantially from the year 2010 onward for all countries and size classes measured. This is consistent with the substantial tightening of the particulate matter emission limit value that typically forced the introduction of a diesel particulate filter. The average NOx emission rate increases with engine load and decreasing ambient temperatures, particularly for Euro 4 and 5 emission classes. This explains to a large extent the differences in the absolute level between the measurement sites together with differences in fleet composition. These dependencies have already been observed earlier with diesel passenger cars; they are considered part of an abnormal emission control strategy. Some limited increase of the NOx emission rate is observed for Euro 3 vehicles older than 10 years. The strong increase for the youngest Euro 6 LCVs might rather reflect technology advances with successively younger models than genuine deterioration. However, the durability of emission controls for Euro 6 vehicles should be better monitored closely. Smoke emission rates continuously increase with vehicle age, suggesting a deterioration of the after-treatment system with use.

Reducing global air pollution: the scope for further policy interventions.

Over the last decades, energy and pollution control policies combined with structural changes in the economy decoupled emission trends from economic growth, increasingly also in the developing world. It is found that effective implementation of the presently decided national pollution control regulations should allow further economic growth without major deterioration of ambient air quality, but will not be enough to reduce pollution levels in many world regions. A combination of ambitious policies focusing on pollution controls, energy and climate, agricultural production systems and addressing human consumption habits could drastically improve air quality throughout the world. By 2040, mean population exposure to PM2.5 from anthropogenic sources could be reduced by about 75% relative to 2015 and brought well below the WHO guideline in large areas of the world. While the implementation of the proposed technical measures is likely to be technically feasible in the future, the transformative changes of current practices will require strong political will, supported by a full appreciation of the multiple benefits. Improved air quality would avoid a large share of the current 3-9 million cases of premature deaths annually. At the same time, the measures that deliver clean air would also significantly reduce emissions of greenhouse gases and contribute to multiple UN sustainable development goals. This article is part of a discussion meeting issue 'Air quality, past present and future'.

Distance-based emission factors from vehicle emission remote sensing measurements.

Vehicle emission remote sensing has the potential to provide detailed emissions information at a highly disaggregated level owing to the ability to measure thousands of vehicles in a single day. Fundamentally, vehicle emission remote sensing provides a direct measure of the molar volume ratio of a pollutant to carbon dioxide, from which fuel-based emissions factors can readily be calculated. However, vehicle emissions are more commonly expressed in emission per unit distance travelled e.g. grams per km or mile. To express vehicle emission remote sensing data in this way requires an estimate of the fuel consumption at the time of the emission measurement. In this paper, an approach is developed based on vehicle specific power that uses commonly measured or easily obtainable vehicle information such as vehicle speed, acceleration and mass. We test the approach against 55 independent comprehensive PEMS measurements for Euro 5 and 6 gasoline and diesel vehicles over a wide range of driving conditions and find good agreement between the method and PEMS data. The method is applied to individual vehicle model types to quantify distance-based emission factors. The method will be appropriate for application to larger vehicle emission remote sensing databases, thus extending real-world distance-based vehicle emissions information.

When is Enough? Minimum Sample Sizes for On-Road Measurements of Car Emissions.

The power of remote vehicle emission sensing stems from the big sample size obtained and its related statistical representativeness for the measured emission rates. But how many records are needed for a representative measurement and when does the information gain per record become insignificant? We use Monte Carlo simulations to determine the relationship between the sample size and the accuracy of the sample mean and variance. We take the example of NO emissions from diesel cars measured by remote emission monitors between 2011 and 2018 at various locations in Europe. We find that no more than 200 remote sensing records are sufficient to approximate the mean emission rate for Euro 4, 5, and 6a/b diesel cars with 80% certainty within a ±1 g NO per kg fuel tolerance margin (∼±50 mg NO per km). Between 300 and 800 remote sensing records are needed to approximate also the variance of the mean NO emission rates for those diesel car technologies. This translates to only 2 and up to 9 measurement days to characterize the means and their variance for a car fleet typical in Europe.

Mitigation pathways towards national ambient air quality standards in India.

Exposure to ambient particulate matter is a leading risk factor for environmental public health in India. While Indian authorities implemented several measures to reduce emissions from the power, industry and transportation sectors over the last years, such strategies appear to be insufficient to reduce the ambient fine particulate matter (PM2.5) concentration below the Indian National Ambient Air Quality Standard (NAAQS) of 40 µg/m3 across the country. This study explores pathways towards achieving the NAAQS in India in the context of the dynamics of social and economic development. In addition, to inform action at the subnational levels in India, we estimate the exposure to ambient air pollution in the current legislations and alternative policy scenarios based on simulations with the GAINS integrated assessment model. The analysis reveals that in many of the Indian States emission sources that are outside of their immediate jurisdictions make the dominating contributions to (population-weighted) ambient pollution levels of PM2.5. Consequently, most of the States cannot achieve significant improvements in their air quality and population exposure on their own without emission reductions in the surrounding regions, and any cost-effective strategy requires regionally coordinated approaches. Advanced technical emission control measures could provide NAAQS-compliant air quality for 60% of the Indian population. However, if combined with national sustainable development strategies, an additional 25% population will be provided with clean air, which appears to be a significant co-benefit on air quality (totaling 85%).

NOx Emissions from Diesel Passenger Cars Worsen with Age.

Commonly, the NOx emissions rates of diesel vehicles have been assumed to remain stable over the vehicle's lifetime. However, there have been hardly any representative long-term emission measurements. Here we present real-driving emissions of diesel cars and light commercial vehicles sampled on-road over 15 years in Zurich/Switzerland. Results suggest deterioration of NOx unit emissions for Euro 2 and Euro 3 diesel technologies, while Euro 1 and Euro 4 technologies seem to be stable. We can exclude a significant influence of high-emitting vehicles. NOx emissions from all cars and light commercial vehicles in European emission inventories increase by 5-10% accounting for the observed deterioration, depending on the country and its share of diesel cars. We suggest monitoring the stability of emission controls particularly for high-mileage light commercial as well as heavy-duty vehicles.

Mode, load, and specific climate impact from passenger trips.

The climate impact from a long-distance trip can easily vary by a factor of 10 per passenger depending on mode choice, vehicle efficiency, and occupancy. In this paper we compare the specific climate impact of long-distance car travel with coach, train, or air trips. We account for both, CO2 emissions and short-lived climate forcers. This particularly affects the ranking of aircraft's climate impact relative to other modes. We calculate the specific impact for the Global Warming Potential and the Global Temperature Change Potential, considering time horizons between 20 and 100 years, and compare with results accounting only for CO2 emissions. The car's fuel efficiency and occupancy are central whether the impact from a trip is as high as from air travel or as low as from train travel. These results can be used for carbon-offsetting schemes, mode choice and transportation planning for climate mitigation.

Specific climate impact of passenger and freight transport.

Emissions of short-lived species contribute significantly to the climate impact of transportation. The magnitude of the effects varies over time for each transport mode. This paper compares first the absolute climate impacts of current passenger and freight transportation. Second, the impacts are normalized with the transport work performed and modes are compared. Calculations are performed for the integrated radiative forcing and mean temperature change, for different time horizons and various measures of transport work. An unambiguous ranking of the specific climate impact can be established for freight transportation, with shipping and rail having lowest and light trucks and air transport having highest specific impact for all cases calculated. Passenger travel with rail, coach or two- and three-wheelers has on average the lowest specific climate impact also on short time horizons. Air travel has the highest specific impact on short-term warming, while on long-term warming car travel has an equal or higher impact per passenger-kilometer.