Bounding Global Aerosol Radiative Forcing of Climate Change.

Aerosols interact with radiation and clouds. Substantial progress made over the past 40 years in observing, understanding, and modeling these processes helped quantify the imbalance in the Earth's radiation budget caused by anthropogenic aerosols, called aerosol radiative forcing, but uncertainties remain large. This review provides a new range of aerosol radiative forcing over the industrial era based on multiple, traceable, and arguable lines of evidence, including modeling approaches, theoretical considerations, and observations. Improved understanding of aerosol absorption and the causes of trends in surface radiative fluxes constrain the forcing from aerosol-radiation interactions. A robust theoretical foundation and convincing evidence constrain the forcing caused by aerosol-driven increases in liquid cloud droplet number concentration. However, the influence of anthropogenic aerosols on cloud liquid water content and cloud fraction is less clear, and the influence on mixed-phase and ice clouds remains poorly constrained. Observed changes in surface temperature and radiative fluxes provide additional constraints. These multiple lines of evidence lead to a 68% confidence interval for the total aerosol effective radiative forcing of -1.6 to -0.6 W m-2, or -2.0 to -0.4 W m-2 with a 90% likelihood. Those intervals are of similar width to the last Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change assessment but shifted toward more negative values. The uncertainty will narrow in the future by continuing to critically combine multiple lines of evidence, especially those addressing industrial-era changes in aerosol sources and aerosol effects on liquid cloud amount and on ice clouds.

Efficacy of Climate Forcings in PDRMIP Models.

Quantifying the efficacy of different climate forcings is important for understanding the real-world climate sensitivity. This study presents a systematic multimodel analysis of different climate driver efficacies using simulations from the Precipitation Driver and Response Model Intercomparison Project (PDRMIP). Efficacies calculated from instantaneous radiative forcing deviate considerably from unity across forcing agents and models. Effective radiative forcing (ERF) is a better predictor of global mean near-surface air temperature (GSAT) change. Efficacies are closest to one when ERF is computed using fixed sea surface temperature experiments and adjusted for land surface temperature changes using radiative kernels. Multimodel mean efficacies based on ERF are close to one for global perturbations of methane, sulfate, black carbon, and insolation, but there is notable intermodel spread. We do not find robust evidence that the geographic location of sulfate aerosol affects its efficacy. GSAT is found to respond more slowly to aerosol forcing than CO2 in the early stages of simulations. Despite these differences, we find that there is no evidence for an efficacy effect on historical GSAT trend estimates based on simulations with an impulse response model, nor on the resulting estimates of climate sensitivity derived from the historical period. However, the considerable intermodel spread in the computed efficacies means that we cannot rule out an efficacy-induced bias of ±0.4 K in equilibrium climate sensitivity to CO2 doubling when estimated using the historical GSAT trend.

Sensible heat has significantly affected the global hydrological cycle over the historical period.

Globally, latent heating associated with a change in precipitation is balanced by changes to atmospheric radiative cooling and sensible heat fluxes. Both components can be altered by climate forcing mechanisms and through climate feedbacks, but the impacts of climate forcing and feedbacks on sensible heat fluxes have received much less attention. Here we show, using a range of climate modelling results, that changes in sensible heat are the dominant contributor to the present global-mean precipitation change since preindustrial time, because the radiative impact of forcings and feedbacks approximately compensate. The model results show a dissimilar influence on sensible heat and precipitation from various drivers of climate change. Due to its strong atmospheric absorption, black carbon is found to influence the sensible heat very differently compared to other aerosols and greenhouse gases. Our results indicate that this is likely caused by differences in the impact on the lower tropospheric stability.

Implications of possible interpretations of 'greenhouse gas balance' in the Paris Agreement.

The main goal of the Paris Agreement as stated in Article 2 is 'holding the increase in the global average temperature to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels and pursuing efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5°C'. Article 4 points to this long-term goal and the need to achieve 'balance between anthropogenic emissions by sources and removals by sinks of greenhouse gases'. This statement on 'greenhouse gas balance' is subject to interpretation, and clarifications are needed to make it operational for national and international climate policies. We study possible interpretations from a scientific perspective and analyse their climatic implications. We clarify how the implications for individual gases depend on the metrics used to relate them. We show that the way in which balance is interpreted, achieved and maintained influences temperature outcomes. Achieving and maintaining net-zero CO2-equivalent emissions conventionally calculated using GWP100 (100-year global warming potential) and including substantial positive contributions from short-lived climate-forcing agents such as methane would result in a sustained decline in global temperature. A modified approach to the use of GWP100 (that equates constant emissions of short-lived climate forcers with zero sustained emission of CO2) results in global temperatures remaining approximately constant once net-zero CO2-equivalent emissions are achieved and maintained. Our paper provides policymakers with an overview of issues and choices that are important to determine which approach is most appropriate in the context of the Paris Agreement.This article is part of the theme issue 'The Paris Agreement: understanding the physical and social challenges for a warming world of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels'.

A PDRMIP multi-model study on the impacts of regional aerosol forcings on global and regional precipitation.

Atmospheric aerosols such as sulfate and black carbon (BC) generate inhomogeneous radiative forcing and can affect precipitation in distinct ways compared to greenhouse gases (GHGs). Their regional effects on the atmospheric energy budget and circulation can be important for understanding and predicting global and regional precipitation changes, which act on top of the background GHG-induced hydrological changes. Under the framework of the Precipitation Driver Response Model Inter-comparison Project (PDRMIP), multiple models were used for the first time to simulate the influence of regional (Asian and European) sulfate and BC forcing on global and regional precipitation. The results show that, as in the case of global aerosol forcing, the global fast precipitation response to regional aerosol forcing scales with global atmospheric absorption, and the slow precipitation response scales with global surface temperature response. Asian sulphate aerosols appear to be a stronger driver of global temperature and precipitation change compared to European aerosols, but when the responses are normalised by unit radiative forcing or by aerosol burden change, the picture reverses, with European aerosols being more efficient in driving global change. The global apparent hydrological sensitivities of these regional forcing experiments are again consistent with those for corresponding global aerosol forcings found in the literature. However, the regional responses and regional apparent hydrological sensitivities do not align with the corresponding global values. Through a holistic approach involving analysis of the energy budget combined with exploring changes in atmospheric dynamics, we provide a framework for explaining the global and regional precipitation responses to regional aerosol forcing.

Carbon dioxide physiological forcing dominates projected Eastern Amazonian drying.

Future projections of east Amazonian precipitation indicate drying, but they are uncertain and poorly understood. In this study we analyse the Amazonian precipitation response to individual atmospheric forcings using a number of global climate models. Black carbon is found to drive reduced precipitation over the Amazon due to temperature-driven circulation changes, but the magnitude is uncertain. CO2 drives reductions in precipitation concentrated in the east, mainly due to a robustly negative, but highly variable in magnitude, fast response. We find that the physiological effect of CO2 on plant stomata is the dominant driver of the fast response due to reduced latent heating, and also contributes to the large model spread. Using a simple model we show that CO2 physiological effects dominate future multi-model mean precipitation projections over the Amazon. However, in individual models temperature-driven changes can be large, but due to little agreement, they largely cancel out in the model-mean.

Understanding Rapid Adjustments to Diverse Forcing Agents.

Rapid adjustments are responses to forcing agents that cause a perturbation to the top of atmosphere energy budget but are uncoupled to changes in surface warming. Different mechanisms are responsible for these adjustments for a variety of climate drivers. These remain to be quantified in detail. It is shown that rapid adjustments reduce the effective radiative forcing (ERF) of black carbon by half of the instantaneous forcing, but for CO2 forcing, rapid adjustments increase ERF. Competing tropospheric adjustments for CO2 forcing are individually significant but sum to zero, such that the ERF equals the stratospherically adjusted radiative forcing, but this is not true for other forcing agents. Additional experiments of increase in the solar constant and increase in CH4 are used to show that a key factor of the rapid adjustment for an individual climate driver is changes in temperature in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere.

Quantifying the Importance of Rapid Adjustments for Global Precipitation Changes.

Different climate drivers influence precipitation in different ways. Here we use radiative kernels to understand the influence of rapid adjustment processes on precipitation in climate models. Rapid adjustments are generally triggered by the initial heating or cooling of the atmosphere from an external climate driver. For precipitation changes, rapid adjustments due to changes in temperature, water vapor, and clouds are most important. In this study we have investigated five climate drivers (CO2, CH4, solar irradiance, black carbon, and sulfate aerosols). The fast precipitation responses to a doubling of CO2 and a 10-fold increase in black carbon are found to be similar, despite very different instantaneous changes in the radiative cooling, individual rapid adjustments, and sensible heating. The model diversity in rapid adjustments is smaller for the experiment involving an increase in the solar irradiance compared to the other climate driver perturbations, and this is also seen in the precipitation changes.

PDRMIP: A Precipitation Driver and Response Model Intercomparison Project, Protocol and preliminary results.

As the global temperature increases with changing climate, precipitation rates and patterns are affected through a wide range of physical mechanisms. The globally averaged intensity of extreme precipitation also changes more rapidly than the globally averaged precipitation rate. While some aspects of the regional variation in precipitation predicted by climate models appear robust, there is still a large degree of inter-model differences unaccounted for. Individual drivers of climate change initially alter the energy budget of the atmosphere leading to distinct rapid adjustments involving changes in precipitation. Differences in how these rapid adjustment processes manifest themselves within models are likely to explain a large fraction of the present model spread and needs better quantifications to improve precipitation predictions. Here, we introduce the Precipitation Driver and Response Model Intercomparison Project (PDRMIP), where a set of idealized experiments designed to understand the role of different climate forcing mechanisms were performed by a large set of climate models. PDRMIP focuses on understanding how precipitation changes relating to rapid adjustments and slower responses to climate forcings are represented across models. Initial results show that rapid adjustments account for large regional differences in hydrological sensitivity across multiple drivers. The PDRMIP results are expected to dramatically improve our understanding of the causes of the present diversity in future climate projections.

Highly contrasting effects of different climate forcing agents on terrestrial ecosystem services.

Many atmospheric constituents besides carbon dioxide (CO(2)) contribute to global warming, and it is common to compare their influence on climate in terms of radiative forcing, which measures their impact on the planetary energy budget. A number of recent studies have shown that many radiatively active constituents also have important impacts on the physiological functioning of ecosystems, and thus the 'ecosystem services' that humankind relies upon. CO(2) increases have most probably increased river runoff and had generally positive impacts on plant growth where nutrients are non-limiting, whereas increases in near-surface ozone (O(3)) are very detrimental to plant productivity. Atmospheric aerosols increase the fraction of surface diffuse light, which is beneficial for plant growth. To illustrate these differences, we present the impact on net primary productivity and runoff of higher CO(2), higher near-surface O(3), and lower sulphate aerosols, and for equivalent changes in radiative forcing. We compare this with the impact of climate change alone, arising, for example, from a physiologically inactive gas such as methane (CH(4)). For equivalent levels of change in radiative forcing, we show that the combined climate and physiological impacts of these individual agents vary markedly and in some cases actually differ in sign. This study highlights the need to develop more informative metrics of the impact of changing atmospheric constituents that go beyond simple radiative forcing.

Environmental contaminants and human health in the Canadian Arctic.

The third Canadian Arctic Human Health Assessment conducted under the Canadian Northern Contaminants Program (NCP), in association with the circumpolar Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme (AMAP), addresses concerns about possible adverse health effects in individuals exposed to environmental contaminants through a diet containing country foods. The objectives here are to: 1) provide data on changes in human contaminant concentrations and exposure among Canadian Arctic peoples; 2) identify new contaminants of concern; 3) discuss possible health effects; 4) outline risk communication about contaminants in country food; and 5) identify knowledge gaps for future contaminant research and monitoring. The nutritional and cultural benefits of country foods are substantial; however, some dietary studies suggest declines in the amount of country foods being consumed. Significant declines were found for most contaminants in maternal blood over the last 10 years within all three Arctic regions studied. Inuit continue to have the highest levels of almost all persistent organic pollutants (POPs) and metals among the ethnic groups studied. A greater proportion of people in the East exceed Health Canada's guidelines for PCBs and mercury, although the proportion of mothers exceeding these guidelines has decreased since the previous assessment. Further monitoring and research are required to assess trends and health effects of emerging contaminants. Infant development studies have shown possible subtle effects of prenatal exposure to heavy metals and some POPs on immune system function and neurodevelopment. New data suggest important beneficial effects on brain development for Inuit infants from some country food nutrients. The most successful risk communication processes balance the risks and benefits of a diet of country food through input from a variety of regional experts and the community, to incorporate the many socio-cultural and economic factors to arrive at a risk management decision that will be the most beneficial in Arctic communities.

Behavioural correlates of the P3b event-related potential in school-age children.

The latency and amplitude of the P3b component of event-related potentials (ERPs) have been related to behavioural performance on several attention and memory tasks in adult populations. However, the extent to which these results apply to children is unknown. This study examined the neurobehavioral correlates of the P3b component in a longitudinal sample of school-age children from Arctic Québec. Children (N=110; mean age=11.3years) were assessed on an ERP auditory oddball paradigm and a neurobehavioral evaluation targeting several aspects of cognition, including the Stewart Extended Continuous Performance Test (E-CPT), California Verbal Learning Test (CVLT), Stroop Color-Word Interference Test, and five subtests from the Wechsler Intelligence Scale for Children-Fourth edition (WISC-IV). P3b latency was positively related to reaction time measures and negatively associated with performance on the WISC-IV Digit Span Forward subtest. Amplitude of the P3b was associated with shorter completion time on the Stroop test and better delayed recognition memory performance among children who did not use semantic strategies on the CVLT. Profile analyses revealed no difference in scalp distribution of the P3b according to performance on these tests. The results are consistent with previous studies with older participants and suggest that, despite age-related differences in waveform and scalp distribution, the P3b component relates to similar neurocognitive processes in children and adults.

Hepatitis B virus-human immunodeficiency virus co-infection in France: a cross-sectional multicentre study.

This prospective, multicentre study was conducted between September and October 2003 in 38 French departments of internal medicine, infectious disease and hepatogastroenterology and included 406 consecutive HBV-infected patients (positive HBsAg), half of whom were HIV-infected (53%). The aim was to outline the main characteristics of hepatitis B virus (HBV)-human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) co-infected patients in French hospitals. HBV-HIV co-infected patients (85% were receiving HAART; mean CD4 count 447+/-245/microl, HIV RNA load<400 copies/ml, 67% of patients), compared to HIV-negative patients, were more often male, injecting drug users, HBeAg-positive and HCV-HIV co-infected (P<10(-4)). They underwent liver biopsy less often (31% vs. 51%, P<10(-4)), particularly those with severe immunodeficiency. They received anti-HBV treatment more often (75% vs. 45.7%, P<10(-4)), mainly lamivudine and tenofovir. Significant improvements in the management of such patients are awaited mainly in the appraisal of liver disease by either liver biopsy or non-invasive alternatives to liver biopsy.

Detection of a direct carbon dioxide effect in continental river runoff records.

Continental runoff has increased through the twentieth century despite more intensive human water consumption. Possible reasons for the increase include: climate change and variability, deforestation, solar dimming, and direct atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) effects on plant transpiration. All of these mechanisms have the potential to affect precipitation and/or evaporation and thereby modify runoff. Here we use a mechanistic land-surface model and optimal fingerprinting statistical techniques to attribute observational runoff changes into contributions due to these factors. The model successfully captures the climate-driven inter-annual runoff variability, but twentieth-century climate alone is insufficient to explain the runoff trends. Instead we find that the trends are consistent with a suppression of plant transpiration due to CO2-induced stomatal closure. This result will affect projections of freshwater availability, and also represents the detection of a direct CO2 effect on the functioning of the terrestrial biosphere.

Detection and localization by in situ molecular biology techniques and immunohistochemistry of hepatitis C virus in livers of chronically infected patients.

Hepatitis C virus (HCV) detection in the livers of chronically infected patients remains a debatable issue. We used immunohistochemistry, in situ hybridization (ISH) alone or after microwave heating with FITC-labeled probes, RT-PCR with unlabeled primers followed by ISH (RT-PCR-ISH), and in situ RT-PCR with FITC-labeled primers (in situ RT-PCRd) to localize the virus in 38 liver biopsy specimens from 21 chronically infected HCV patients treated with interferon-alpha (IFN-alpha). Biopsies were taken at the beginning and end of IFN-alpha treatment and 1 year later. Results were compared with that of HCV-PCR in serum. RT-PCR-ISH and in situ RT-PCRd showed HCV signal in all liver biopsies even in responders with seronegative HCV PCR. This signal was intranuclear, diffuse, or peripheral, in hepatocytes, bile ductule cells, and lymphocytes. Cytoplasmic signals were occasionally observed. Whereas the percentage of labeled hepatocytes remained constant, the number of labeled lymphoid follicles decreased after INF-alpha therapy. Immunohistochemistry resulted in the same pattern of positivity but it was weaker and inconstant. This study indicates the persistency of HCV latency in IFN-alpha responders 1 year after IFN-alpha treatment cessation, a finding that certainly deserves confirmation.

[In situ gene amplification on tissue sections (in situ PCR). A new technique for pathologists]. / L'amplification génique in situ sur coupes tissulaires (PCR-in situ).

In situ polymerase chain reaction is a recent technique which combines the sensitivity of PCR reaction to intracellular localization of genomic sequences with the same specificity as in situ hybridization. This reaction is based on the in situ annealing and polymerisation of oligonucleotides complementary to nucleotides located at each side of the target DNA sequence to amplify. We describe the Hot Start PCR (DNA) and the Hot Start PCR after reverse transcription step (RNA). It allows to amplify some nucleic sequences to a high level, becoming easier to detect. The vizualisation can be realized by direct in situ PCR, the product obtained being directly identifiable by incorporation of labeled nucleotides or primers, or preferentially by indirect in situ PCR. In this case, the amplification is followed by in situ hybridization with labeled probes. This last procedure is more specific. Numerous controls are essential at each step of the technique for validating results.

Presence of HIV-1 in human parenchymal and non-parenchymal liver cells in vivo.

The infection of liver cells by HIV-1 was investigated in vivo. Liver biopsies from 13 anti-HIV-1 antibody-positive patients were studied and HIV-1 DNA was revealed by polymerase chain reaction (PCR) in eight. In situ hybridization demonstrated the presence of HIV-1 RNA in all eight PCR-positive liver specimens. Mononuclear inflammatory cells in the portal tracts and Kupffer cells were labeled by a HIV-1 35S-RNA probe in all cases and by an anti-p24 monoclonal antibody, in seven cases. In addition, hepatocytes also clearly scored positive for HIV-1 RNA in three cases. These results demonstrate the infection of both parenchymal and non-parenchymal liver cells by HIV-1 in vivo and therefore show that HIV-1 can infect an epithelial CD4-negative cell type.

Localization of insulin-like growth factor-II and hepatitis B virus mRNAs and proteins in human hepatocellular carcinomas.

We have previously demonstrated increased levels of insulin-like growth factor (IGF)-II mRNAs and protein with re-expression of a fetal pattern of transcripts in human hepatocarcinoma. In the present study, we have investigated IGF-II transcripts and protein in liver tissues from patients with hepatocarcinoma infected with hepatitis B virus, by using in situ hybridization and immunohistochemical techniques. The IGF-II transcripts and protein have been localized to the hepatocytes, be they normal or tumoral with a gradient for IGF-II expression from normal to dysplastic and tumoral tissues. Hepatitis B virus mRNAs and viral surface antigen have only been detected in some hepatocytes in the peritumoral tissues. Therefore, the results show expression of IGF-II in hepatocytes. The increase of IGF-II expression in tumor hepatocytes support the hypothesis that it might represent a marker of hepatocytes differentiation.

Immunohistochemical evidence for human immunodeficiency virus-1 infection of liver Kupffer cells.

To investigate the possibility of human immunodeficiency virus-(HIV) 1 infection of liver cells, liver samples from 17 patients with either acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS, 13), AIDS-related complex (ARC, 3), or lymphadenopathy syndrome (LAS, 1) were studied. A monoclonal antibody directed against the p24 gag HIV-1 protein was used in an immunoperoxidase assay and yielded positive results in seven out of 17 samples. Staining by anti-p24 antibody was of three types: diffuse in Kupffer cells of most samples, inside granuloma in cells that were probably histiocytes, and in some sinusoidal cells whose origin was difficult to ascertain. Attempts to locate the CD4 membrane antigen showed that it was mainly present on endothelial sinusoidal cells. These results indicate that liver cells, including Kupffer cells, might be infected by HIV-1, and that these cells might be involved in certain liver lesions observed during HIV-1 infection, particularly sinusoidal abnormalities.