Lineage-specific detection of residual disease predicts relapse in patients with chronic myeloid leukemia stopping therapy.

ABSTRACT: Patients with chronic myeloid leukemia who are eligible for treatment-free remission (TFR) may still relapse after tyrosine kinase inhibitor (TKI) cessation. There is a need for accurate predictors of outcome to enable patients with a favorable profile to proceed while avoiding futile attempts. Sensitive detection of residual disease in total leukocytes at treatment cessation is associated with relapse but is not highly discriminatory, likely because it is a composite measure of residual leukemia derived from different cell lineages, whereas only some lineages are relevant for relapse. We prospectively measured BCR::ABL1 DNA as a predictive yes/no binary test in 5 cellular fractions from 48 patients meeting conventional criteria for TKI discontinuation. The median BCR::ABL1 DNA level was higher in granulocytes and T cells, but not in other lineages, in patients who relapsed. Among the 40 patients undergoing their first TFR attempt, we defined 3 groups with differing relapse risk: granulocyte-positive group (100%), granulocyte-negative/T-cell-positive group (67%), and granulocyte-negative /T-cell-negative group (25%). These data show the critical importance of lineage-specific assessment of residual disease in the selection of patients who can attempt to achieve TFR with a high expectation of success and, concurrently, defer patients who have a high probability of relapse.

Early BCR-ABL1 kinetics are predictive of subsequent achievement of treatment-free remission in chronic myeloid leukemia.

With treatment-free remission (TFR) rapidly becoming the ultimate goal of therapy in chronic myeloid leukemia (CML), there is a need to develop strategies to maximize sustained TFR by improving our understanding of its key determinants. Chronic-phase CML patients attempting TFR were evaluated to identify the impact of multiple variables on the probability of sustained TFR. Early molecular response dynamics were included as a predictive variable, assessed by calculating the patient-specific halving time of BCR-ABL1 after commencing tyrosine kinase inhibitor (TKI) therapy. Overall, 115 patients attempted TFR and had ≥12 months of follow-up. The probability of sustained TFR, defined as remaining in major molecular response off TKI therapy for 12 months, was 55%. The time taken for the BCR-ABL1 value to halve was the strongest independent predictor of sustained TFR: 80% in patients with a halving time of <9.35 days (first quartile) compared with only 4% if the halving time was >21.85 days (last quartile) (P < .001). The e14a2 BCR-ABL1 transcript type and duration of TKI exposure before attempting TFR were also independent predictors of sustained TFR. However, the BCR-ABL1 value measured at 3 months of TKI was not an independent predictor of sustained TFR. A more rapid initial BCR-ABL1 decline after commencing TKI also correlated with an increased likelihood of achieving TFR eligibility. The association between sustained TFR and the time taken for BCR-ABL1 to halve after commencing TKI was validated using an independent dataset. These data support the critical importance of the initial kinetics of BCR-ABL1 decline for long-term outcomes.

Prognosis for patients with CML and >10% BCR-ABL1 after 3 months of imatinib depends on the rate of BCR-ABL1 decline.

In chronic myeloid leukemia (CML) patients, a breakpoint cluster region-Abelson (BCR-ABL1) value >10% at 3 months of therapy is statistically associated with poorer outcome, yet many of these patients still achieve satisfactory outcomes. We investigated 528 first-line imatinib-treated patients to determine whether patients with the poorest outcome can be better discriminated at 3 months. All outcomes were significantly superior for the 410 patients with BCR-ABL1 ≤10% at 3 months (P < .001). However, the poorest outcomes among the 95 evaluable patients with BCR-ABL1 >10% at 3 months were identified by the rate of BCR-ABL1 decline from baseline, assessed by estimating the number of days over which BCR-ABL1 halved. Patients with BCR-ABL1 halving time <76 days (n = 74) had significantly superior outcomes compared with patients whose BCR-ABL1 values did not halve by 76 days (n = 21; 4-year overall survival, 95% vs 58%, P = .0002; progression-free survival, 92% vs 63%, P = .008; failure-free survival, 59% vs 6%, P < .0001; and major molecular response, 54% vs 5%, P = .008). By multivariate analysis, the halving time was an independent predictor of outcome in this poor risk group. Our study highlighted that the rate of BCR-ABL1 decline may be a critical prognostic discriminator of the patients with very poor outcome among those >10% at 3 months. The International Randomized IFN vs STI571 (IRIS) trial was registered at http://www.clinicaltrials.gov as #NCT00006343. The Tyrosine Kinase Inhibitor Optimization and Selectivity (TOPS) trial was registered at http://www.clinicaltrials.gov as #NCT00124748. The Therapeutic Intensification in DE-novo Leukaemia (TIDEL) I trial was registered at http://www.ANZCTR.org.au as #ACTRN12607000614493. The TIDEL II trial was registered at http://www.ANZCTR.org.au as #ACTRN12607000325404.