Glycated bovine serum albumin for use in feeding trials with animal models - In vitro methodology and characterization of a glycated substrate for modifying feed pellets.

This study investigated different methods to produce Nε-carboxymethyl-lysine (CML)-enriched bovine serum albumin (BSA) as alternatives to the classical approach using glyoxylic acid (GA) and sodium cyanoborohydride (NaBH3CN) which results in toxic hydrogen cyanide (HCN). The reaction of GA (6 mmol/L) and NaBH3CN (21 mmol/L) to produce CML remained the most effective with CML yields of 24-35%, followed by 13-24% using 300 mmol/L glyoxal (GO). GA promoted specific modification of lysine to CML, and fewer structural modifications of the BSA molecule compared with GO, as evidenced by fluorescence and proteomic analyses. GO promoted greater arginine modification compared with GA (76 vs 23%). Despite structural changes to BSA with GO, murine fecal clearance of CML was similar to literature values. Hence, BSA glycation with 300 mmol/L glyoxal is a suitable alternative to GA and NaBH3CN for generating CML-enriched protein free of HCN, but a CML-only fortification model remains to be described.

Diagnostic work-up and systemic treatment for advanced non-squamous non-small-cell lung cancer in four Southeast Asian countries.

BACKGROUND: Lung cancer is the second most common cancer and leading cause of cancer mortality worldwide. Recent advances in molecular testing and targeted therapy have improved survival among patients with metastatic non-small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC). We sought to quantify and describe molecular testing among metastatic non-squamous NSCLC cases in selected Southeast Asian countries and describe first-line therapy chosen. PATIENTS AND METHODS: A retrospective study was conducted based on incident lung cancer cases diagnosed between 2017 and 2019 in Lampang (Thailand), Penang (Malaysia), Singapore and Yogyakarta (Indonesia). Cases (n = 3413) were defined using the International Classification of Diseases for Oncology third edition. In Singapore, a clinical series obtained from the National Cancer Centre was used to identify patients, while corresponding population-based cancer registries were used elsewhere. Tumor and clinical information were abstracted by chart review according to a predefined study protocol. Molecular testing of epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR), anaplastic lymphoma kinase (ALK) gene rearrangement, ROS1 gene rearrangement and BRAF V600 mutation was recorded. RESULTS: Among 2962 cases with a specified pathological diagnosis (86.8%), most patients had non-squamous NSCLC (75.8%). For cases with staging information (92.1%), the majority presented with metastatic disease (71.3%). Overall, molecular testing rates in the 1528 patients with stage IV non-squamous NSCLC were 67.0% for EGFR, 42.3% for ALK, 39.1% for ROS1, 7.8% for BRAF and 36.1% for PD-L1. Among these patients, first-line systemic treatment included chemotherapy (25.9%), targeted therapy (35.6%) and immunotherapy (5.9%), with 31% of patients having no record of antitumor treatment. Molecular testing and the proportion of patients receiving treatment were highly heterogenous between the regions. CONCLUSIONS: This first analysis of data from a clinically annotated registry for lung cancer from four settings in Southeast Asia has demonstrated the feasibility of integrating clinical data within population-based cancer registries. Our study results identify areas where further development could improve patient access to optimal treatment.

Increasing global accessibility to high-level treatments for cervical cancers.

Human papillomaviruses (HPV)-related gynecological cancers are a major health care issue, and a leading cause of cancer death in low- and middle-income countries (LMIC). In 2020, the World Health Organization launched a program aimed at cervical cancer elimination, by screening and vaccination strategies. Offering the best possible care to women diagnosed with invasive cancer is a complementary objective. Treatment of cervical cancer as per modern standards is complex and multimodal, mainly relying on surgery, external-beam radiotherapy (+/-chemotherapy) and brachytherapy. In parallel with the pivotal role of multidisciplinary discussion, international societies provide guidance to define the most effective and least toxic anti-cancer strategy, homogenize treatment protocols and provide benchmark quality indicators as a basis for accreditation processes. The challenge is to offer the appropriate diagnostic workup and treatment upfront and to avoid non- evidence-based treatment that consumes resources, impairs quality of life (QoL), and compromises oncological outcome. Various strategies may be applied for improving treatment quality: development of surgical mentorship, companion-training programs and international cooperation. The lack of radiotherapy/brachytherapy facilities is a major concern in LMIC. Reinforcing international support in terms of education, training, research and development and technical cooperation with national projects is required to increase access to minimum requirements but also introduce modern techniques, upgrade radiotherapy/brachytherapy services, and expand access to modern systemic treatments. In countries with robust economies, compliance to standards should also be increased. Integrative cancer care and multidisciplinary approaches are needed to tackle the dual challenge of increasing cure rates while minimizing QoL impairment. Appropriate dimensioning of the resources to avoid harmful treatment delays and access to expert referral centers is also a priority.

Estimating the global cancer incidence and mortality in 2018: GLOBOCAN sources and methods.

Estimates of the worldwide incidence and mortality from 36 cancers and for all cancers combined for the year 2018 are now available in the GLOBOCAN 2018 database, compiled and disseminated by the International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC). This paper reviews the sources and methods used in compiling the cancer statistics in 185 countries. The validity of the national estimates depends upon the representativeness of the source information, and to take into account possible sources of bias, uncertainty intervals are now provided for the estimated sex- and site-specific all-ages number of new cancer cases and cancer deaths. We briefly describe the key results globally and by world region. There were an estimated 18.1 million (95% UI: 17.5-18.7 million) new cases of cancer (17 million excluding non-melanoma skin cancer) and 9.6 million (95% UI: 9.3-9.8 million) deaths from cancer (9.5 million excluding non-melanoma skin cancer) worldwide in 2018.

Increased incidence of cholecystectomy related to gallbladder disease in France: Analysis of 807,307 cholecystectomy procedures over a period of seven years.

PURPOSE: Gallstones are one of the most common abdominal reasons for admission to hospital. The aim of this study was to analyze trends and outcomes in patients undergoing cholecystectomy with gallbladder related disease in France from 2008 to 2014. PATIENTS AND METHODS: We carried out a population-based, retrospective cohort study using data extracted from the French nationwide hospital discharge database (PMSI). We included all patients having a cholecystectomy related to gallbladder disease from January 2008 to December 2014. Patients' demographics, primary diagnosis, procedure type, length of stay (LOS), admission in an intensive care unit, discharge disposition, complications, and in-hospital mortality were analyzed. RESULTS: Overall, 807,307 cholecystectomies were performed in France over the study period, with an increase in the national incidence rate from 167.5 (95%CI [166.5; 168.5]) to 182.6 (95%CI [181.6; 183.6]) per 100,000 inhabitants. Females accounted for 66.5% of procedures (P<0.001). The mean age was lower for females than for males: 52.1 versus 60.2 (P<0.001). The ratio of laparoscopic cholecystectomy significantly increased from 90% in 2008 to 94% in 2014 (P<0.001). Average inpatient LOS decreased significantly from 6.5 days in 2008 to 4.7 days in 2014 (P<0.001). Most common complication type was intra-abdominal (23.1%) for laparoscopic procedure (95%CI [22.7; 23.5]), and in-hospital mortality significantly decreased over time from 0.45% in 2008 to 0.38% in 2014 (P<0.005). CONCLUSION: Our results showed that the national incidence rate of cholecystectomy related to gallbladder disease increased from 2008 to 2014.

Cancer incidence and mortality patterns in Europe: Estimates for 40 countries and 25 major cancers in 2018.

INTRODUCTION: Europe contains 9% of the world population but has a 25% share of the global cancer burden. Up-to-date cancer statistics in Europe are key to cancer planning. Cancer incidence and mortality estimates for 25 major cancers are presented for the 40 countries in the four United Nations-defined areas of Europe and for Europe and the European Union (EU-28) for 2018. METHODS: Estimates of national incidence and mortality rates for 2018 were based on statistical models applied to the most recently published data, with predictions obtained from recent trends, where possible. The estimated rates in 2018 were applied to the 2018 population estimates to obtain the estimated numbers of new cancer cases and deaths in Europe in 2018. RESULTS: There were an estimated 3.91 million new cases of cancer (excluding non-melanoma skin cancer) and 1.93 million deaths from cancer in Europe in 2018. The most common cancer sites were cancers of the female breast (523,000 cases), followed by colorectal (500,000), lung (470,000) and prostate cancer (450,000). These four cancers represent half of the overall burden of cancer in Europe. The most common causes of death from cancer were cancers of the lung (388,000 deaths), colorectal (243,000), breast (138,000) and pancreatic cancer (128,000). In the EU-28, the estimated number of new cases of cancer was approximately 1.6 million in males and 1.4 million in females, with 790,000 men and 620,000 women dying from the disease in the same year. CONCLUSION: The present estimates of the cancer burden in Europe alongside a description of the profiles of common cancers at the national and regional level provide a basis for establishing priorities for cancer control actions across Europe. The estimates presented here are based on the recorded data from 145 population-based cancer registries in Europe. Their long established role in planning and evaluating national cancer plans on the continent should not be undervalued.

Cutaneous melanoma in France in 2015 attributable to solar ultraviolet radiation and the use of sunbeds.

BACKGROUND: Exposure to solar ultraviolet radiation (UVR) and the use of UV-emitting tanning devices are associated with cutaneous malignant melanoma occurrence. OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to quantify the proportion and number of melanoma cases attributable to solar UVR exposure and sunbed use in France in 2015. METHODS: Population attributable fractions (PAFs) and numbers of melanoma cases attributable to solar UVR exposure were estimated by age and sex using the incidence rates of a 1903 birth cohort as the primary reference. Further analyses were performed using the following: (i) contemporary melanoma incidence rates in low-incidence regions within France and (ii) national melanoma incidence rates for the year 1980, as additional references. Assuming a 15-year lag period, PAF and melanoma cases attributable to sunbed use were calculated using prevalence estimates from a cross-sectional population survey and published relative risk estimates. RESULTS: In 2015, an estimated 10 340 melanoma cases diagnosed in French adults were attributable to solar UVR exposure, corresponding to 83% of all melanomas and 3% of all cancer cases in that year. PAFs for melanoma were highest in the youngest age group (30-49 years) and higher in men than in women (89% vs. 79%). A total of 382 melanoma cases occurring in French adults in 2015 were attributed to the use of sunbeds, equivalent to 1.5% and 4.6% of all melanoma cases in men and women, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: A considerable proportion of melanoma cases in France in 2015 were attributable to solar UVR exposure, suggesting that targeted prevention strategies need to be implemented.

Cervical cancer in Africa, Latin America and the Caribbean and Asia: Regional inequalities and changing trends.

The vast majority (86% or 453,000 cases) of the global burden of cervical cancer occurs in Africa, Latin America and the Caribbean and Asia, where one in nine new cancer cases are of the cervix. Although the disease has become rare in high-resource settings (e.g., in North America, parts of Europe, Japan) that have historically invested in effective screening programs, the patterns and trends are variable elsewhere. While favourable incidence trends have been recorded in many populations in Asia and Latin America and the Caribbean in the past decades, rising rates have been observed in sub-Saharan African countries, where high quality incidence series are available. The challenge for countries heavily affected by the disease in these regions is to ensure resource-dependent programmes of screening and vaccination are implemented to transform the situation, so that accelerated declines in cervical cancer are not the preserve of high-income countries, but become the norm in all populations worldwide.

International patterns and trends in ovarian cancer incidence, overall and by histologic subtype.

Internationally, ovarian cancer is the 7th leading cancer diagnosis and 8th leading cause of cancer mortality among women. Ovarian cancer incidence varies by region, particularly when comparing high vs. low-income countries. Temporal changes in reproductive factors coupled with shifts in diagnostic criteria may have influenced incidence trends of ovarian cancer and relative rates by histologic subtype. Accordingly, we evaluated trends in ovarian cancer incidence overall (1973-1977 to 2003-2007) and by histologic subtype (1988-1992 to 2003-2007) using volumes IV-IX of the Cancer Incidence in Five Continents database (CI5plus) and CI5X (volume X) database. Annual percent changes were calculated for ovarian cancer incidence trends, and rates of histologic subtypes for individual countries were compared to overall international incidence. Ovarian cancer incidence rates were stable across regions, although there were notable increases in Eastern/Southern Europe (e.g., Poland: Annual Percent Change (APC) 1.6%, p = 0.02) and Asia (e.g., Japan: APC 1.7%, p = 0.01) and decreases in Northern Europe (e.g., Denmark: APC -0.7%, p = 0.01) and North America (e.g., US Whites: APC -0.9%, p < 0.01). Relative proportions of histologic subtypes were similar across countries, except for Asian nations, where clear cell and endometrioid carcinomas comprised a higher proportion of the rate and serous carcinomas comprised a lower proportion of the rate than the worldwide distribution. Geographic variation in temporal trends of ovarian cancer incidence and differences in the distribution of histologic subtype may be partially explained by reproductive and genetic factors. Thus, histology-specific ovarian cancer should continue to be monitored to further understand the etiology of this neoplasm.

The Benefits of Providing External Beam Radiotherapy in Low- and Middle-income Countries.

More than half of all cancer diagnoses worldwide occur in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) and the incidence is projected to rise substantially within the next 20 years. Radiotherapy is a vital, cost-effective treatment for cancer; yet there is currently a huge deficit in radiotherapy services within these countries. The aim of this study was to estimate the potential outcome benefits if external beam radiotherapy was provided to all patients requiring such treatment in LMICs, according to the current evidence-based guidelines. Projected estimates of these benefits were calculated to 2035, obtained by applying the previously published Collaboration for Cancer Outcomes, Research and Evaluation (CCORE) demand and outcome benefit estimates to cancer incidence and projection data from the GLOBOCAN 2012 data. The estimated optimal radiotherapy utilisation rate for all LMICs was 50%. There were about 4.0 million cancer patients in LMICs who required radiotherapy in 2012. This number is projected to increase by 78% by 2035, a far steeper increase than the 38% increase expected in high-income countries. National radiotherapy benefits varied widely, and were influenced by case mix. The 5 year population local control and survival benefits for all LMICs, if radiotherapy was delivered according to guidelines, were estimated to be 9.6% and 4.4%, respectively, compared with no radiotherapy use. This equates to about 1.3 million patients who would derive a local control benefit in 2035, whereas over 615 000 patients would derive a survival benefit if the demand for radiotherapy in LMICs was met. The potential outcome benefits were found to be higher in LMICs. These results further highlight the urgent need to reduce the gap between the supply of, and demand for, radiotherapy in LMICs. We must attempt to address this 'silent crisis' as a matter of priority and the approach must consider the complex societal challenges unique to LMICs.

The burden of HPV associated cancers in two regions in Nigeria 2012-2014.

INTRODUCTION: HPV attributable cancers are the second most common infection-related cancers worldwide, with much higher burden in less developed regions. There are currently no country-specific estimates of the burden of these cancers in Nigeria just like many other low and middle income countries. METHODS: In this study, we quantified the proportion of the cancer burden in Nigeria that is attributable to HPV infection from 2012 to 2014 using HPV prevalence estimated from previous studies and data from two population based cancer registries (PBCR) in Nigeria. We considered cancer sites for which there is strong evidence of an association with HPV infection based on the International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC) classification. We obtained age and sex-specific estimates of incident cancers and using the World Standard Population, we derived age standardized incidence (ASR) rates for each cancer type by categories of sex, and estimated the population attributable fractions (PAF). RESULTS: The two PBCR reported 4336 new cancer cases from 2012 to 2014. Of these, 1627 (37.5%) were in males and 2709 (62.5%) in females. Some 11% (488/4336) of these cancers were HPV associated; 2% (38/1627) in men and 17% (450/2709) in women. Of the HPV associated cancers, 7.8% occurred in men and 92.2% in women. The ASRs for HPV associated cancers was 33.5 per 100,000; 2.3 and 31.2 per 100,000 in men and women respectively. The proportion of all cancers attributable to HPV infection ranged from 10.2 to 10.4% (442-453 of 4336) while the proportion of HPV associated cancers attributable to HPV infection ranged from 90.6% to 92.8% (442-453 of the 488 cases). In men, 55.3% to 68.4% of HPV associated cancers were attributable to HPV infection compared to 93.6% to 94.8% in women. The combined ASR for HPV attributable cancers ranged from 31.0 to 31.7 per 100,000. This was 1.4 to 1.7 per 100,000 in men and 29.6 to 30.0 per 100,000 in women. In women, cervical cancer (n=392, ASR 28.3 per 100,000) was the commonest HPV attributable cancer, while anal cancer (n=21, ASR 1.2 per 100,000) was the commonest in men. CONCLUSIONS: HPV attributable cancers constitute a substantial cancer burden in Nigerian women, much less so in men. A significant proportion of cancers in Nigerian women would be prevented if strategies such as HPV DNA based screening and HPV vaccination are implemented.

More deaths from pancreatic cancer than breast cancer in the EU by 2017.

INTRODUCTION: Pancreatic cancer currently ranks below female breast cancer in terms of the number of deaths in both males and females in the EU. While breast cancer mortality rates have been declining in many higher income EU countries during recent decades, rates of pancreatic cancer in contrast are either stable or moderately increasing; a comparative analysis of the short-term future rates of both is warranted. METHODS: We extracted the annual number of deaths from cancers of the pancreas and breast by gender together with population at risk in each of 28 countries of the EU for the period 2001-2010. We fitted cancer- and gender-specific time-linear regression models and predicted deaths from pancreatic and breast cancer mortality for the years 2011-2025. RESULTS: We estimated that by the year 2017 more deaths from pancreatic cancer will occur (91 500 annual deaths) than breast cancer (91 000) in the EU. By 2025, deaths from cancer of the pancreas are predicted to be 25% higher (111 500 and 90 000, respectively). Pancreatic cancer may become the third leading cause of death from cancer in the EU after lung and colorectal cancers. CONCLUSION: Although strategies may emerge in the near future that will enhance the prospects of improving the very poor five-year survival from pancreatic cancer, coordinated efforts are necessary to reduce the foreseeable high mortality burden of disease within the EU.

Place of birth and risk of gallbladder cancer in India.

CONTEXT: Within India, the incidence of gallbladder cancer (GBC) is characterized by marked geographical variation; however, the reasons for these differences are unclear. AIMS: To evaluate the role of place of birth, length of residence, and effect of migration from high- to low-risk region on GBC development. SETTINGS AND DESIGN: Population-based cancer registries (PBCRs); case-control study. SUBJECTS AND METHODS: Data of PBCRs were used to demonstrate geographical variation in GBC incidence rates. A case-control study data examined the role of birth place, residence length, and effect of migration in etiology of GBC. STATISTICAL ANALYSIS: Rate ratios for different PBCRs were estimated using Chennai Cancer Registry as the reference population. Odds ratios (ORs) for developing GBC in a high-risk region compared to a low-risk region and associated 95% confidence interval (CI) were estimated through unconditional logistic regression models using case-control study. RESULTS: GBC shows marked variation in incidence with risk highest in Northeast regions and lowest in South India. OR of 4.82 (95% CI: 3.87-5.99) was observed for developing GBC for individuals born in a high-risk region compared to those born in a low-risk region after adjusting for confounders. A dose-response relationship with increased risk with increased length of residence in a high-risk region was observed (OR lifetime 5.58 [95% CI: 4.42-7.05]; Ptrend ≤ 0.001). The risk persisted even if study participant migrated from high- to low-risk region (OR = 1.36; 95% CI: 1.02-1.82). CONCLUSIONS: The present study signifies the importance of place of birth, length of stay, and effect of migration from high- to low-risk region in the development of GBC. The data indicate role of environmental and genetic factors in etiology of disease.

Cancer Incidence in Five Continents: Inclusion criteria, highlights from Volume X and the global status of cancer registration.

Cancer Incidence in Five Continents (CI5), a longstanding collaboration between the International Agency for Research on Cancer and the International Association of Cancer Registries, serves as a unique source of cancer incidence data from high-quality population-based cancer registries around the world. The recent publication of Volume X comprises cancer incidence data from 290 registries covering 424 populations in 68 countries for the registration period 2003-2007. In this article, we assess the status of population-based cancer registries worldwide, describe the techniques used in CI5 to evaluate their quality and highlight the notable variation in the incidence rates of selected cancers contained within Volume X of CI5. We also discuss the Global Initiative for Cancer Registry Development as an international partnership that aims to reduce the disparities in availability of cancer incidence data for cancer control action, particularly in economically transitioning countries, already experiencing a rapid rise in the number of cancer patients annually.

1064 nm Q-switched Nd:YAG laser for the treatment of Argyria: a systematic review.

Argyria is a benign skin disease characterized by blue to slate-grey discoloration that is caused by deposition of silver granules in the skin and/or mucus membranes as a result of long-term ingestion of ionized silver solutions or exposure to airborne silver particles. The skin discoloration can be generalized or localized and is exacerbated by sunlight. The skin discoloration is usually permanent, and until recently, there has been no effective treatment for argyria. Over the past 6 years, a number of case reports and one case series have described cases of argyria that were successfully treated with a 1064 nm Q-switched (QS) neodymium-doped yttrium aluminium garnet (Nd:YAG) laser; however, a review of these studies has never been reported in the dermatologic literature. To review the use of the 1064 nm QS Nd:YAG laser for the treatment of argyria. A search of the National Library of Medicine's PubMed Database and the SCOPUS Database was performed to find articles that detailed the treatment of argyria with 1064 nm QS Nd:YAG laser. Six articles were selected for inclusion in this review. Each article was reviewed and summarized in a table. A 1064 nm QS Nd:YAG laser offers a novel and effective treatment for argyria. A systematic review of the dermatologic literature revealed a limited number of case reports and case series using this treatment. However, the results gleaned by the authors from the literature review provide important information to the clinician. For patients with argyria, a single pass of the 1064 nm QS Nd:YAG laser offers immediate, effective and sustained pigment clearing without any long-term adverse effects.

Light and laser therapies for the treatment of sebaceous gland hyperplasia a review of the literature.

Sebaceous gland hyperplasia (SGH) is a benign cutaneous condition that presents primarily on the face and increases with UVB exposure and ageing. These lesions are a common cosmetic concern but are difficult to treat, as the entire sebaceous gland needs to be destroyed to prevent recurrence. Traditional methods of treatment include: cryosurgery, electrodessication, curettage, shave excision and topical trichloroacetic acid. These methods have an increased risk of skin discoloration and scarring to the area of treatment that may lead to inferior cosmetic outcomes. Alternatively, oral isotretinoin can treat SGH, but is a known teratogen in pregnancy and has high relapse rates with discontinuation. A systematic review of the literature was performed to look at photodynamic therapy (PDT) and laser treatment for SGH. According to the results of this study, PDT, lasers and combinations of the two treatments were found to offer alternatives to the more conventional techniques with better outcomes. In particular, the use of wavelength-specific laser for the sebaceous gland of 1720 nm were found to have better outcomes and provide minimal damage to surrounding tissues. Additionally, combination PDT with aminolevulinic acid and pre-treatment with carbon dioxide laser ablation or pulse-dyed laser offered higher cure rates over stand-alone laser or PDT treatments in a shorter number of sessions with similar transient side-effects. However, further large-scale prospective studies with adequate follow-up are required to confirm these findings and those for sebaceous gland-specific lasers.

International patterns and trends in testicular cancer incidence, overall and by histologic subtype, 1973-2007.

Incidence rates of testicular cancer in Northern European and North American countries have been widely reported, whereas rates in other populations, such as Eastern Europe, Central/South America, Asia, and Africa, have been less frequently evaluated. We examined testicular cancer incidence rates overall and by histologic type by calendar time and birth cohort for selected global populations 1973-2007. Age-standardized incidence rates over succeeding 5-year periods were calculated from volumes 4-9 of Cancer Incidence in Five Continents electronic database (CI5plus) and the newly released CI5X (volume 10) database. Annual percent change over the 35-year period was calculated using weighted least squares regression. Age-period-cohort analyses were performed and observed rates and fitted rate ratios presented by birth cohort. Incidence rates of testicular cancer increased between 1973-1977 and 2003-2007 in most populations evaluated worldwide. Of note, incidence rates in Eastern European countries rose rapidly and approached rates in Northern European countries. Rates in Central and South America also increased and are now intermediate to the high rates among men of European ancestry and low rates among men of Asian or African descent. Some heterogeneity in the trends in seminoma and nonseminoma were observed in Denmark, the United Kingdom, and among US whites, particularly in recent generations, with rapid and uniform increases in the incidence of both histologic types in Slovakia. Reasons for the rising incidence rates among European and American populations remain unexplained; however, changing distributions in the prevalence of risk factors for testicular cancer cannot be ruled out.

50 years of screening in the Nordic countries: quantifying the effects on cervical cancer incidence.

BACKGROUND: Nordic countries' data offer a unique possibility to evaluate the long-term benefit of cervical cancer screening in a context of increasing risk of human papillomavirus infection. METHODS: Ad hoc-refined age-period-cohort models were applied to the last 50-year incidence data from Denmark, Finland, Norway and Sweden to project expected cervical cancer cases in a no-screening scenario. RESULTS: In the absence of screening, projected incidence rates for 2006-2010 in Nordic countries would have been between 3 and 5 times higher than observed rates. Over 60,000 cases or between 41 and 49% of the expected cases of cervical cancer may have been prevented by the introduction of screening in the late 1960s and early 1970s. CONCLUSIONS: Our study suggests that screening programmes might have prevented a HPV-driven epidemic of cervical cancer in Nordic countries. According to extrapolations from cohort effects, cervical cancer incidence rates in the Nordic countries would have been otherwise comparable to the highest incidence rates currently detected in low-income countries.