Predicting multifaceted risks using machine learning in atrial fibrillation: insights from GLORIA-AF study.

Aims: Patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) have a higher risk of ischaemic stroke and death. While anticoagulants are effective at reducing these risks, they increase the risk of bleeding. Current clinical risk scores only perform modestly in predicting adverse outcomes, especially for the outcome of death. We aimed to test the multi-label gradient boosting decision tree (ML-GBDT) model in predicting risks for adverse outcomes in a prospective global AF registry. Methods and results: We studied patients from phase II/III of the Global Registry on Long-Term Oral Anti-Thrombotic Treatment in Patients with Atrial Fibrillation registry between 2011 and 2020. The outcomes were all-cause death, ischaemic stroke, and major bleeding within 1 year following the AF. We trained the ML-GBDT model and compared its discrimination with the clinical scores in predicting patient outcomes. A total of 25 656 patients were included [mean age 70.3 years (SD 10.3); 44.8% female]. Within 1 year after AF, ischaemic stroke occurred in 215 (0.8%), major bleeding in 405 (1.6%), and death in 897 (3.5%) patients. Our model achieved an optimized area under the curve in predicting death (0.785, 95% CI: 0.757-0.813) compared with the Charlson Comorbidity Index (0.747, P = 0.007), ischaemic stroke (0.691, 0.626-0.756) compared with CHA2DS2-VASc (0.613, P = 0.028), and major bleeding (0.698, 0.651-0.745) as opposed to HAS-BLED (0.607, P = 0.002), with improvement in net reclassification index (10.0, 12.5, and 23.6%, respectively). Conclusion: The ML-GBDT model outperformed clinical risk scores in predicting the risks in patients with AF. This approach could be used as a single multifaceted holistic tool to optimize patient risk assessment and mitigate adverse outcomes when managing AF.

Utilisation of Chronic Disease and Mental Health Management Services and Cardioprotective Medication Prescriptions in Primary Care for Patients With Cardiovascular Diseases and Cancer: A Cross-Sectional Study.

BACKGROUND: Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is a leading cause of morbidity and mortality among cancer survivors. Mental health is considered an important risk factor affecting the treatment of cardiovascular disease. However, little is known about the use of secondary prevention strategies for CVD in patients with both cancer and CVD. This study aimed to compare the utilisation of primary care chronic disease management plans, mental health care and guideline-indicated cardioprotective medications among CVD patients with and without cancer. METHODS: Retrospective cross-sectional study utilising clinical data of patients with CVD from 50 Australian primary care practices. Outcomes included the use of chronic disease management plans, mental health care, guideline-indicated cardioprotective medications and influenza vaccination. Logistic regression, accounting for demographic and clinical covariates and clustering effects by practices, was used to compare the two groups. RESULTS: Of the 15,040 patients with CVD, 1,486 patients (9.9%) concurrently had cancer. Patients with cancer, compared to those without, were older (77.6 vs 71.8 years, p<0.001), more likely to drink alcohol (62.6% vs 55.7%, p<0.001), have lower systolic (130.3±17.8 vs 132.5±21.1 mmHg, p<0.001) and diastolic (72.2±11 vs 75.3±34 mmHg, p<0.001) blood pressure. Although suboptimal for both groups, patients with cancer were significantly more likely to have general practice management plans (GPMPs) (51.4% vs 43.2%, p<0.001), coordination of team care arrangements (TCAs) (46.2% vs 37.0%, p<0.001), have a review of either GPMP or TCA (42.8% vs 34.7%, p<0.001), have a mental health treatment consultation (15.4% vs 10.5%, p=0.004) and be prescribed blood pressure-lowering medications (70.1% vs 66.0%, p=0.002). However, there were no statistical differences in the prescription of lipid-lowering or antiplatelet medications. After adjustments for covariates and multiple testing, patients with cancer did not show a difference in GPMPs, TCAs, and a review of either, but were more likely to receive mental health treatment consultations than those without cancer (odds ratio 1.76; 95% confidence interval 1.42-2.19). CONCLUSIONS: Less than half of patients with CVD had a GPMP, TCA or review of either. Although those patients with cancer were more likely to receive these interventions, still around half the patients did not. Medicare-funded GPMPs, TCAs and a review of either GPMP or TCA were underutilised, and future studies should seek to identify ways of improving access to these services.

Sex- and Age-Specific Differences in Risk Profiles and Early Outcomes in Adults With Acute Coronary Syndromes.

BACKGROUND: Adults <55 years of age comprise a quarter of all acute coronary syndromes (ACS) hospitalisations. There is a paucity of data characterising this group, particularly sex differences. This study aimed to compare the clinical and risk profile of patients with ACS aged <55 years with older counterparts, and measure short-term outcomes by age and sex. METHOD: The study population comprised patients with ACS enrolled in the AUS-Global Registry of Acute Coronary Events (GRACE), Cooperative National Registry of Acute Coronary Syndrome Care (CONCORDANCE) and SNAPSHOT ACS registries. We compared clinical features and combinations of major modifiable risk factors (hypertension, smoking, dyslipidaemia, and diabetes) by sex and age group (20-54, 55-74, 75-94 years). All-cause mortality and major adverse events were identified in-hospital and at 6-months. RESULTS: There were 16,658 patients included (22.3% aged 20-54 years). Among them, 20-54 year olds had the highest proportion of ST-elevation myocardial infarction compared with sex-matched older age groups. Half of 20-54 year olds were current smokers, compared with a quarter of 55-74 year olds, and had the highest prevalence of no major modifiable risk factors (14.2% women, 12.7% men) and of single risk factors (27.6% women, 29.0% men), driven by smoking. Conversely, this age group had the highest proportion of all four modifiable risk factors (6.6% women, 4.7% men). Mortality at 6 months in 20-54 year olds was similar between men (2.3%) and women (1.7%), although lower than in older age groups. CONCLUSIONS: Younger adults with ACS are more likely to have either no risk factor, a single risk factor, or all four modifiable risk factors, than older patients. Targeted risk factor prevention and management is warranted in this age group.

Multimorbidity impacts cardiovascular disease risk following percutaneous coronary intervention: latent class analysis of the Melbourne Interventional Group (MIG) registry.

BACKGROUND: Multimorbidity is strongly associated with disability or functional decline, poor quality of life and high consumption of health care services. This study aimed (1) To identify patterns of multimorbidity among patients undergoing first recorded percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI); (2) To explore the association between the identified patterns of multimorbidity on length of hospital stay, 30-day and 12- month risk of major adverse cardiac and cerebrovascular events (MACCE) after PCI. METHODS: A retrospective cohort study of the Melbourne Interventional Group (MIG) registry. This study included 14,025 participants who underwent their first PCI from 2005 to 2015 in Victoria, Australia. Based on a probabilistic modelling approach, Latent class analysis was adopted to classify clusters of people who shared similar combinations and magnitude of the comorbidity of interest. Logistic regression models were used to estimate odd ratios and 95% confidence interval (CI) for the 30-day and 12-month MACCE. RESULTS: More than two-thirds of patients had multimorbidity, with the most prevalent conditions being hypertension (59%) and dyslipidaemia (60%). Four distinctive multimorbidity clusters were identified each with significant associations for higher risk of 30-day and 12-month MACCE. The cluster B had the highest risk of 30-day MACCE event that was characterised by a high prevalence of reduced estimated glomerular filtration rate (92%), hypertension (73%) and reduced ejection fraction (EF) (57%). The cluster C, characterised by a high prevalence of hypertension (94%), dyslipidaemia (88%), reduced eGFR (87%), diabetes (73%) and reduced EF (65%) had the highest risk of 12-month MACCE and highest length of hospital stay. CONCLUSION: Hypertension and dyslipidaemia are prevalent in at least four in ten patients undergoing coronary angioplasty. This study showed that clusters of patients with multimorbidity had significantly different risk of 30-day and 12-month MACCE after PCI. This suggests the necessity for treatment approaches that are more personalised and customised to enhance patient outcomes and the quality of care delivered to patients in various comorbidity clusters. These results should be validated in a prospective cohort and to evaluate the potential impacts of these clusters on the prevention of MACCE after PCI.

Evaluation of stable chest pain following emergency department presentation: Impact of first-line cardiac computed tomography diagnostic strategy in an Australian setting.

OBJECTIVE: International guidelines provide increasing support for computed tomography coronary angiography (CTCA) in investigating chest pain. A pathway utilising CTCA first-line for outpatient stable chest pain evaluation was implemented in an Australian ED. METHODS: In pre-post design, the impact of the pathway was prospectively assessed over 6 months (August 2021 to January 2022) and compared with a 6-month pre-implementation group (February 2021 to July 2021). CTCA was recommended first-line in suspected stable cardiac chest pain, followed by chest pain clinic review. Predefined criteria were provided recommending functional testing in select patients. The impact of CTCA versus functional testing was evaluated. Data were obtained from digital medical records. RESULTS: Three hundred and fifteen patients were included, 143 pre-implementation and 172 post-implementation. Characteristics were similar except age (pre-implementation: 58.9 ± 12.0 vs post-implementation: 62.8 ± 12.3 years, P = 0.004). Pathway-guided management resulted in higher first-line CTCA (73.3% vs 46.2%, P < 0.001), lower functional testing (30.2% vs 56.6%, P < 0.001) and lower proportion undergoing two non-invasive tests (4.7% vs 10.5%, P = 0.047), without increasing investigation costs or invasive coronary angiography (ICA) (pre-implementation: 13.3% vs post-implementation: 9.3%, P = 0.263). In patients undergoing CTCA, 40.7% had normal coronaries and 36.2% minimal/mild disease, with no difference in disease burden post-implementation. More medication changes occurred following CTCA compared with functional testing (aspirin: P = 0.005, statin: P < 0.001). In patients undergoing ICA, revascularisation to ICA ratio was higher following CTCA compared with functional testing (91.7% vs 18.2%, P < 0.001). No 30-day myocardial infarction or death occurred. CONCLUSIONS: The pathway increased CTCA utilisation and reduced downstream investigations. CTCA was associated with medication changes and improved ICA efficiency.

Long-Term Pattern and Associated Costs of Re-hospitalisations in Patients After Index Atrial Fibrillation Admission in Western Australia, 2011-2017.

AIMS: This study aimed to determine total and cardiovascular-specific re-hospitalisation patterns and associated costs within 2 years of index atrial fibrillation (AF) admission in Western Australia (WA). METHOD: Patients aged 25-94 years, surviving an index (first-in-period) AF hospitalisation (principal diagnosis) from 2011 to 2015 were identified from WA-linked administrative data and followed for 2 years. Person-level hospitalisation costs ($ Australian dollar) were computed using the Australian Refined Diagnosis Related Groups and presented as median with first and third quartile costs. RESULTS: The cohort comprised 17,080 patients, 59.0% men, mean age 69.6±13.3 (standard deviation) years, and 59.0% had a CHA2DS2-VA (one point for congestive heart failure, hypertension, diabetes mellitus, vascular disease or age 65-74 years; two points for prior stroke/transient ischaemic attack or age ≥75 years) score of 2 or more. Within 2 years, 13,776 patients (80.6%) were readmitted with median of 2 (1-4) readmissions. Among total all-cause readmissions (n=54,240), 40.1% were emergent and 36.6% were cardiovascular-related, led by AF (19.5%), coronary events (5.8%), and heart failure (4.2%). The median index AF admission cost was $3,264 ($2,899-$7,649) while cardiovascular readmission costs were higher, particularly stroke ($10,732 [$4,179-23,390]), AF ablation ($7,884 [$5,283-$8,878]), and heart failure ($6,759 [$6,081-$13,146]). Average readmission costs over 2 years per person increased by $4,746 (95% confidence interval [CI] $4,459-$5,033) per unit increase in baseline CHA2DS2-VA score. The average 2-year hospitalisation costs per patient, including index admission, was $27,820 (95% CI $27,308-$28,333) and total WA costs were $475.2 million between 2011 and 2017. CONCLUSIONS: Patients after index AF hospitalisation have a high risk of cardiovascular and other readmissions with considerable healthcare cost implications. Readmission costs increased progressively with baseline CHA2DS2-VA score. Better integrated management of AF and coexistent comorbidities is likely key to reducing readmissions and associated costs.

Global Trends in Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Disease.

PURPOSE: Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is the leading cause of morbidity and mortality, affecting over 523 million people globally. Atherosclerotic diseases, particularly ischemic heart disease (IHD) and stroke, are the primary mediators of CVD burden and trends, with half of CVD deaths attributed to IHD, and another quarter to ischemic stroke. The aim of this review was to provide an overview of world-wide trends in the burden of atherosclerotic CVD. METHODS: A literature review of published studies reporting regional or global trends or burden of CVD was undertaken, with a specific focus on atherosclerotic-mediated CVDs. FINDINGS: While long-term trends in age-standardized rates of CVD mortality and incidence indicate substantial declines in disease burden, the impact of population growth and ageing has contributed to a continued increase in the absolute number of people living with CVD. Additionally, when data are restricted to the most recent decade, there are indications that even declines in age-standardized CVD rates may have attenuated. Trends are also heterogeneous across countries and regions, with a relative increase in CVD burden in developing countries and differing trends within countries. The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic resulted in substantial short-term reductions in hospitalization rates for major atherosclerotic CVDs including acute coronary syndromes and heart failure in some countries. IMPLICATIONS: Recent attenuation of declines in atherosclerotic CVDs with increasing absolute burden has significant implications for health systems and resource availability, with the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on longer-term trends in CVD yet to be clearly established.

A National Survey of Patient Data Capture, Management, Reporting Practice in Australian Cardiac Rehabilitation Programs.

BACKGROUND: Lack of service data for cardiac rehabilitation limits understanding of program delivery, benchmarking and quality improvement. This study aimed to describe current practices, management, utilisation and engagement with quality indicators in Australian programs. METHOD: Cardiac rehabilitation programs (n=396) were identified from national directories and networks. Program coordinators were surveyed on service data capture, management systems and adoption of published national quality indicators. Text responses were coded and classified. Logistic regression determined independent associates of the use of data for quality improvement. RESULTS: A total of 319 (81%) coordinators completed the survey. Annual patient enrolments/programs were >200 (31.0%), 51-200 (46%) and ≤50 (23%). Most (79%) programs used an electronic system, alongside paper (63%) and/or another electronic system (19%), with 21% completely paper. While 84% knew of the national quality indicators, only 52% used them. Supplementary to patient care, data were used for reports to managers (57%) and funders (41%), to improve quality (56%), support funding (43%) and research (31%). Using data for quality improvement was more likely when enrolments where >200 (Odds ratio [OR] 3.83, 95% Confidence Interval [CI] 1.76-8.34) and less likely in Victoria (OR 0.24 95%, CI 0.08-0.77), New South Wales (OR 0.25 95%, CI 0.08-0.76) and Western Australia (OR 0.16 95%, CI 0.05-0.57). CONCLUSIONS: The collection of service data for cardiac rehabilitation patient data and its justification is diverse, limiting our capacity to benchmark and drive clinical practice. The findings strengthen the case for a national low-burden approach to data capture for quality care.

Impacts of high sensitivity troponin T reporting on care and outcomes in clinical practice: Interactions between low troponin concentrations and participant sex within two randomized clinical trials.

BACKGROUND: The impacts of high sensitivity cardiac troponin (hs-cTn) reporting on downstream interventions amongst suspected acute coronary syndrome (ACS) in the emergency department (ED), especially amongst those with newly identified hs-cTn elevations and in consideration of well-established sex-related disparities, has not been critically evaluated to date. This investigation explores the impact of hs-cTnT reporting on care and outcomes, particularly by participant sex. METHODS: Two similarly ED-based randomized controlled trials conducted between July 2011 to March 2013 (n = 1988) and August 2015 to April 2019 (n = 3378) were comparatively evaluated. Clinical outcomes were adjudicated to the Fourth Universal Definition of MI. Changes in practice were assessed at 30 days, and death or MI were explored to 12 months. RESULTS: The HS-Troponin study demonstrated no difference in death or MI with unmasking amongst those with hs-cTnT <30 ng/L, whereas the RAPID TnT study demonstrated a significantly higher rate. In RAPID TnT, there was significant increase in death or MI associated with unmasking for females with hs-cTnT <30 ng/L (masked: 11[1.5%], unmasked: 25[3.4%],HR: 2.27,95%C.I.:1.87-2.77,P < 0.001). Less cardiac stress testing with unmasking amongst those <30 ng/L was observed in males in both studies, which was significant in RAPID TnT (masked: 92[12.0%], unmasked: 55[7.0%], P = 0.008). In RAPID TnT, significantly higher rates of angiography in males were observed with unmasking, with no such changes amongst females <30 ng/L (masked: 28[3.7%], unmasked: 51[6.5%],P = 0.01). CONCLUSION: Compared with males, there were no evident impacts on downstream practices for females with unmasking in RAPID TnT, likely representing missed opportunities to reduce late death or MI.

The Australian Genetic Heart Disease Registry: Protocol for a Data Linkage Study.

BACKGROUND: Genetic heart diseases such as hypertrophic cardiomyopathy can cause significant morbidity and mortality, ranging from syncope, chest pain, and palpitations to heart failure and sudden cardiac death. These diseases are inherited in an autosomal dominant fashion, meaning family members of affected individuals have a 1 in 2 chance of also inheriting the disease ("at-risk relatives"). The health care use patterns of individuals with a genetic heart disease, including emergency department presentations and hospital admissions, are poorly understood. By linking genetic heart disease registry data to routinely collected health data, we aim to provide a more comprehensive clinical data set to examine the burden of disease on individuals, families, and health care systems. OBJECTIVE: The objective of this study is to link the Australian Genetic Heart Disease (AGHD) Registry with routinely collected whole-population health data sets to investigate the health care use of individuals with a genetic heart disease and their at-risk relatives. This linked data set will allow for the investigation of differences in outcomes and health care use due to disease, sex, socioeconomic status, and other factors. METHODS: The AGHD Registry is a nationwide data set that began in 2007 and aims to recruit individuals with a genetic heart disease and their family members. In this study, demographic, clinical, and genetic data (available from 2007 to 2019) for AGHD Registry participants and at-risk relatives residing in New South Wales (NSW), Australia, were linked to routinely collected health data. These data included NSW-based data sets covering hospitalizations (2001-2019), emergency department presentations (2005-2019), and both state-wide and national mortality registries (2007-2019). The linkage was performed by the Centre for Health Record Linkage. Investigations stratifying by diagnosis, age, sex, socioeconomic status, and gene status will be undertaken and reported using descriptive statistics. RESULTS: NSW AGHD Registry participants were linked to routinely collected health data sets using probabilistic matching (November 2019). Of 1720 AGHD Registry participants, 1384 had linkages with 11,610 hospital records, 7032 emergency department records, and 60 death records. Data assessment and harmonization were performed, and descriptive data analysis is underway. CONCLUSIONS: We intend to provide insights into the health care use patterns of individuals with a genetic heart disease and their at-risk relatives, including frequency of hospital admissions and differences due to factors such as disease, sex, and socioeconomic status. Identifying disparities and potential barriers to care may highlight specific health care needs (eg, between sexes) and factors impacting health care access and use. INTERNATIONAL REGISTERED REPORT IDENTIFIER (IRRID): DERR1-10.2196/48636.

Clinical outcomes and health care costs of transferring rural Western Australians for invasive coronary angiography, and a cost-effective alternative care model: a retrospective cross-sectional study.

OBJECTIVES: To examine the severity of coronary artery disease (CAD) in people from rural or remote Western Australia referred for invasive coronary angiography (ICA) in Perth and their subsequent management; to estimate the cost savings were computed tomography coronary angiography (CTCA) offered in rural centres as a first line investigation for people with suspected CAD. DESIGN: Retrospective cohort study. SETTING, PARTICIPANTS: Adults with stable symptoms in rural and remote WA referred to Perth public tertiary hospitals for ICA evaluation during the 2019 calendar year. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Severity and management of CAD (medical management or revascularisation); health care costs by care model (standard care or a proposed alternative model with local CTCA assessment). RESULTS: The mean age of the 1017 people from rural and remote WA who underwent ICA in Perth was 62 years (standard deviation, 13 years); 680 were men (66.9%), 245 were Indigenous people (24.1%). Indications for referral were non-ST elevation myocardial infarction (438, 43.1%), chest pain with normal troponin level (394, 38.7%), and other (185, 18.2%). After ICA assessment, 619 people were medically managed (60.9%) and 398 underwent revascularisation (39.1%). None of the 365 patients (35.9%) without obstructed coronaries (< 50% stenosis) underwent revascularisation; nine patients with moderate CAD (50-69% stenosis; 7%) and 389 with severe CAD (≥ 70% stenosis or occluded vessel; 75.5%) underwent revascularisation. Were CTCA used locally to determine the need for referral, 527 referrals could have been averted (53%), the ICA:revascularisation ratio would have improved from 2.6 to 1.6, and 1757 metropolitan hospital bed-days (43% reduction) and $7.3 million in health care costs (36% reduction) would have been saved. CONCLUSION: Many rural and remote Western Australians transferred for ICA in Perth have non-obstructive CAD and are medically managed. Providing CTCA as a first line investigation in rural centres could avert half of these transfers and be a cost-effective strategy for risk stratification of people with suspected CAD.

A Clinical Guide for Assessment and Prescription of Exercise and Physical Activity in Cardiac Rehabilitation. A CSANZ Position Statement.

Patients with cardiovascular disease benefit from cardiac rehabilitation, which includes structured exercise and physical activity as core components. This position statement provides pragmatic, evidence-based guidance for the assessment and prescription of exercise and physical activity for cardiac rehabilitation clinicians, recognising the latest international guidelines, scientific evidence and the increasing use of technology and virtual delivery methods. The patient-centred assessment and prescription of aerobic exercise, resistance exercise and physical activity have been addressed, including progression and safety considerations.

The New South Wales Sudden Cardiac Arrest Registry: A Data Linkage Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND: Sudden cardiac arrest (SCA) in young people aged 1 to 50 years often occurs with no presenting symptoms or risk factors prompting screening for cardiovascular disease prior to their cardiac arrest. Approximately 3,000 young Australians suffer from sudden cardiac death (SCD) each year, making this a major public health issue. However, there is significant variation in the way incidence is estimated resulting in discrepancy across reporting which impacts our ability to understand and prevent these devastating events. We describe the New South Wales (NSW) Sudden Cardiac Arrest Registry: a retrospective, data linkage study which will identify all SCAs in the young in NSW from 2009 through to June 2022. OBJECTIVE: To determine the incidence, demographic characteristics and causes of SCA in young people. We will develop an NSW-based registry that will contribute to a greater understanding of SCA including risk factors and outcomes. METHODS: The cohort will include all people who experience a SCA in the NSW community aged between 1 to 50 years. Cases will be identified using the following three datasets: the Out of Hospital Cardiac Arrest Register housed at NSW Ambulance, the NSW Emergency Department Data Collection, and the National Coronial Information System. Data from eight datasets will be collected, anonymised and linked for the entire cohort. Analysis will be undertaken and reported using descriptive statistics. CONCLUSIONS: The NSW SCA registry will be an important resource for the improved understanding of SCA and inform the widespread impacts it has on individuals, their families and society.

Unplanned Readmissions and Long-Term Mortality Risk After Incident Heart Failure Hospitalisation in Western Australia, 2001-2015.

AIMS: To investigate the frequency and predictors of unplanned readmissions after incident heart failure (HF) hospitalisation and the association between readmissions and mortality over two years. METHODS: We performed a retrospective cohort study using Western Australian morbidity and mortality data to identify all patients, aged 25-94 years, who survived an incident (first-ever) HF hospitalisation (principal diagnosis) between 2001-2015. Ordinal logistic regression models determined the covariates independently associated with unplanned readmission(s). Cox proportional hazards models with time-varying exposures determined the hazard ratios (HR) of one or more readmissions for mortality over two years after incident HF. RESULTS: Of 18,693 patients, 53.4% male, mean age 74.4 (standard deviation [SD] 13.6) years, 61.3% experienced 32,431 unplanned readmissions (39.7% cardiovascular-related) within two years. Leading readmission causes were HF (19.1%), respiratory diseases (12.6%), and ischaemic heart disease (9.6%). All-cause death occurred in 27.2% of the cohort, and the multivariable-adjusted mortality HR of 1 (versus 0) readmission was 2.5 (95% confidence interval [CI], 2.3-2.7) increasing to 5.0 (95% CI, 4.7-5.4) for 2+ readmissions. The adjusted mortality HR of 1 and 2+ (versus 0) HF-specific readmission was 2.0 (95% CI, 1.8-2.1) and 3.6 (95% CI, 3.2-3.9), respectively. Coexistent cardiovascular and other comorbidities were independently associated with increased readmission and mortality risk. CONCLUSION: This study underlines the high burden of recurrent unplanned cardiovascular and other readmissions within two years after incident HF hospitalisation, and their additive adverse impact on mortality. Integrated multidisciplinary management of concomitant comorbidities, in addition to HF-targeted treatments, is necessary to improve long-term prognosis in HF patients.

Risk of early recurrence and mortality in high-risk myocardial infarction patients: A population-based linked data study.

Background: Survival during the early period following myocardial infarction (MI) has significantly improved although there are limited data on cardiovascular recurrence during this period. Methods: We identified all emergency hospitalisations for MI from November 1, 2011 to October 31, 2016 in Western Australia from a linked hospitalisation/mortality dataset. Patients were included if they survived >3 days, had no acute kidney injury, and had ≥1 of: ≥65 years, prior MI, diabetes or peripheral arterial disease. Outcomes were major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE, a composite of CVD death, recurrent MI or stroke), cardiovascular disease (CVD) death, all-cause mortality, recurrent MI and stroke. Cumulative risks at 90-days and 1-year were estimated from Kaplan-Meier analyses and predictors of each outcome from multivariable Cox regression models. Results: There were 8024 high-risk MI patients identified (males 61.8%). Median age was 73.7 years (IQR 66.3-82.2). Half of the risk of MACE occurred in the first 90-days post-MI (6.6% vs 12.6% at 1-year) and was underpinned by risk of recurrent MI. Risk was generally higher in women than men (MACE: 6.0% males, 7.7% females, p = 0.0025; CVD mortality: 1.7% males, 3.7% females; all-cause mortality: 2.8% males, 5.6% females, p < 0.0001). Independent predictors of 90-day MACE were increasing age, heart failure history, hypertension and prior stroke. Female sex was not associated with a higher rate of any of the outcomes after multivariable adjustment. Conclusion: Half of cardiovascular events in the year following an MI occur within 90-days, demonstrating that reductions in MI burden could be achieved by further targeted intervention in the early period following an MI.

Improving prioritization processes for clinical practice guidelines: new methods and an evaluation from the National Heart Foundation of Australia.

BACKGROUND: Releasing timely and relevant clinical guidelines is challenging for organizations globally. Priority-setting is crucial, as guideline development is resource-intensive. Our aim, as a national organization responsible for developing cardiovascular clinical guidelines, was to develop a method for generating and prioritizing topics for future clinical guideline development in areas where guidance was most needed. METHODS: Several novel processes were developed, adopted and evaluated, including (1) initial public consultation for health professionals and the general public to generate topics; (2) thematic and qualitative analysis, according to the International Classification of Diseases (ICD-11), to aggregate topics; (3) adapting a criteria-based matrix tool to prioritize topics; (4) achieving consensus through a modified-nominal group technique and voting on priorities; and (5) process evaluation via survey of end-users. The latter comprised the organization's Expert Committee of 12 members with expertise across cardiology and public health, including two citizen representatives. RESULTS: Topics (n = 405; reduced to n = 278 when duplicates removed) were identified from public consultation responses (n = 107 respondents). Thematic analysis synthesized 127 topics that were then categorized into 37 themes using ICD-11 codes. Exclusion criteria were applied (n = 32 themes omitted), resulting in five short-listed topics: (1) congenital heart disease, (2) valvular heart disease, (3) hypercholesterolaemia, (4) hypertension and (5) ischaemic heart diseases and diseases of the coronary artery. The Expert Committee applied the prioritization matrix to all five short-listed topics during a consensus meeting and voted to prioritize topics. Unanimous consensus was reached for the topic voted the highest priority: ischaemic heart disease and diseases of the coronary arteries, resulting in the decision to update the organization's 2016 clinical guidelines for acute coronary syndromes. Evaluation indicated that initial public consultation was highly valued by the Expert Committee, and the matrix tool was easy to use and improved transparency in priority-setting. CONCLUSION: Developing a multistage, systematic process, incorporating public consultation and an international classification system led to improved transparency in our clinical guideline priority-setting processes and that topics chosen would have the greatest impact on health outcomes. These methods are potentially applicable to other national and international organizations responsible for developing clinical guidelines.

Evidence-based medication adherence among seniors in the first year after heart failure hospitalisation and subsequent long-term outcomes: a restricted cubic spline analysis of adherence-outcome relationships.

PURPOSE: Non-adherence to heart failure (HF) medications is associated with poor outcomes. We used restricted cubic splines (RCS) to assess the continuous relationship between adherence to renin-angiotensin system inhibitors (RASI) and ß-blockers and long-term outcomes in senior HF patients. METHODS: We identified a population-based cohort of 4234 patients, aged 65-84 years, 56% male, who were hospitalised for HF in Western Australia between 2003 and 2008 and survived to 1-year post-discharge (landmark date). Adherence was calculated using the proportion of days covered (PDC) in the first year post-discharge. RCS Cox proportional-hazards models were applied to determine the relationship between adherence and all-cause death and death/HF readmission at 1 and 3 years after the landmark date. RESULTS: RCS analysis showed a curvilinear adherence-outcome relationship for both RASI and ß-blockers which was linear above PDC 60%. For each 10% increase in RASI and ß-blocker adherence above this level, the adjusted hazard ratio for 1-year all-cause death fell by an average of 6.6% and 4.8% respectively (trend p < 0.05) and risk of all-cause death/HF readmission fell by 5.4% and 5.8% respectively (trend p < 0.005). Linear reductions in adjusted risk for these outcomes at PDC ≥ 60% were also seen at 3 years after landmark date (all trend p < 0.05). CONCLUSION: RCS analysis showed that for RASI and ß-blockers, there was no upper adherence level (threshold) above 60% where risk reduction did not continue to occur. Therefore, interventions should maximise adherence to these disease-modifying HF pharmacotherapies to improve long-term outcomes after hospitalised HF.

Unplanned 30-day readmissions, comorbidity and impact on one-year mortality following incident heart failure hospitalisation in Western Australia, 2001-2015.

BACKGROUND: Readmissions within 30 days after heart failure (HF) hospitalisation is considered an important healthcare quality metric, but their impact on medium-term mortality is unclear within an Australian setting. We determined the frequency, risk predictors and relative mortality risk of 30-day unplanned readmission in patients following an incident HF hospitalisation. METHODS: From the Western Australian Hospitalisation Morbidity Data Collection we identified patients aged 25-94 years with an incident (first-ever) HF hospitalisation as a principal diagnosis between 2001 and 2015, and who survived to 30-days post discharge. Unplanned 30-day readmissions were categorised by principal diagnosis. Logistic and Cox regression analysis determined the independent predictors of unplanned readmissions in 30-day survivors and the multivariable-adjusted hazard ratio (HR) of readmission on mortality within the subsequent year. RESULTS: The cohort comprised 18,241 patients, mean age 74.3 ± 13.6 (SD) years, 53.5% males, and one-third had a modified Charlson Comorbidity Index score of ≥ 3. Among 30-day survivors, 15.5% experienced one or more unplanned 30-day readmission, of which 53.9% were due to cardiovascular causes; predominantly HF (31.4%). The unadjusted 1-year mortality was 15.9%, and the adjusted mortality HR in patients with 1 and ≥ 2 cardiovascular or non-cardiovascular readmissions (versus none) was 1.96 (95% confidence interval (CI) 1.80-2.14) and 3.04 (95% CI, 2.51-3.68) respectively. Coexistent comorbidities, including ischaemic heart disease/myocardial infarction, peripheral arterial disease, pneumonia, chronic kidney disease, and anaemia, were independent predictors of both 30-day unplanned readmission and 1-year mortality. CONCLUSION: Unplanned 30-day readmissions and medium-term mortality remain high among patients who survived to 30 days after incident HF hospitalisation. Any cardiovascular or non-cardiovascular readmission was associated with a two to three-fold higher adjusted HR for death over the following year, and various coexistent comorbidities were important associates of readmission and mortality risk. Our findings support the need to optimize multidisciplinary HF and multimorbidity management to potentially reduce repeat hospitalisation and improve survival.

Emergent readmission and long-term mortality risk after incident atrial fibrillation hospitalisation.

OBJECTIVE: To assess the frequency and predictors of unplanned readmissions after hospitalisation for incident atrial fibrillation (AF) and the association of readmissions with mortality over 2 years. METHODS: We performed a retrospective cohort study using Western Australian morbidity and mortality data to identify all patients, aged 25-94 years, who survived incident (first-ever) hospitalisation for AF (principal diagnosis), between 2001 and 2015. Ordinal logistic models determined the covariates independently associated with unplanned readmission(s), and Cox proportional hazards models with time-varying exposures determined the hazard ratios (HR) of one or more readmissions for mortality over 2 years after incident AF. RESULTS: Of 22 956 patients, 57.7% male, mean age 67.9 (SD 13.8) years, 44.0% experienced 22 053 unplanned readmissions within 2 years, 50.6% being cardiovascular-related. All-cause death occurred in 8.0% of the cohort, and the multivariable-adjusted mortality HR of 1 (vs 0) readmission was 2.9 (95% CI 2.6 to 3.3), increasing to 5.6 (95% CI 5.0 to 6.5) for 3+ readmissions. First emergent readmission for AF, stroke, heart failure or myocardial infarction was independently associated with an increased hazard for mortality. Coexistent cardiovascular and other comorbidities were independently associated with increased readmission and mortality risk, whereas AF ablation was associated with reduced risk. CONCLUSION: This study highlights the large burden of unplanned all-cause and cardiovascular-specific readmissions within 2 years after being hospitalised for incident AF and their associated adverse impact on mortality. Concomitant comorbidities are independently associated with unplanned hospitalisations and mortality, which supports integrated multidisciplinary management of comorbidities, along with AF-targeted treatments, to improve long-term outcomes in patients with AF.