Coral assemblages at higher latitudes favor short-term potential over long-term performance.

The persistent exposure of coral assemblages to more variable abiotic regimes is assumed to augment their resilience to future climatic variability. Yet, while the determinants of coral population resilience across species remain unknown, we are unable to predict the winners and losers across reef ecosystems exposed to increasingly variable conditions. Using annual surveys of 3171 coral individuals across Australia and Japan (2016-2019), we explore spatial variation across the short- and long-term dynamics of competitive, stress-tolerant, and weedy assemblages to evaluate how abiotic variability mediates the structural composition of coral assemblages. We illustrate how, by promoting short-term potential over long-term performance, coral assemblages can reduce their vulnerability to stochastic environments. However, compared to stress-tolerant, and weedy assemblages, competitive coral taxa display a reduced capacity for elevating their short-term potential. Accordingly, future climatic shifts threaten the structural complexity of coral assemblages in variable environments, emulating the degradation expected across global tropical reefs.

Sensitivity of the Indo-Pacific coral Acropora millepora to aromatic hydrocarbons.

The risks posed by petroleum spills to coral reefs are poorly understood and quantifying acute toxicity thresholds for aromatic hydrocarbons to reef-building corals is required to assess their sensitivity relative to other taxa. In this study, we exposed Acropora millepora to toluene, naphthalene and 1-methylnaphthalene (1-MN) in a flow-through system and assessed survivorship and sublethal responses including growth, colour and the photosynthetic performance of symbionts. Median 50% lethal concentrations (LC50s) decreased over the 7-d exposure period, reaching asymptotic values of 22,921, 5,268, 1167 µg L-1 for toluene, naphthalene and 1-MN, respectively. Corresponding toxicokinetic parameters (εLC50) defining the time progression of toxicity were 0.830, 0.692, and 0.256 d-1, respectively. Latent effects after an additional 7-d recovery in uncontaminated seawater were not observed. Effect concentrations (EC50s) for 50% growth inhibition were 1.9- to 3.6-fold lower than the LC50s for each aromatic hydrocarbon. There were no observed effects of aromatic hydrocarbon exposure on colour score (a proxy for bleaching) or photosynthetic efficiency. Acute and chronic critical target lipid body burdens (CTLBBs) of 70.3 ± 16.3 and 13.6 ± 18.4 µmol g-1 octanol (± standard error) were calculated for survival and growth inhibition based on 7-d LC50 and EC10 values, respectively. These species-specific constants indicate adult A. millepora is more sensitive than other corals reported so far but is of average sensitivity in comparison with other aquatic taxa in the target lipid model database. These results advance our understanding of acute hazards of petroleum contaminants to key habitat-building tropical coral reef species.

The projected degradation of subtropical coral assemblages by recurrent thermal stress.

Subtropical coral assemblages are threatened by similar extreme thermal stress events to their tropical counterparts. Yet, the mid- and long-term thermal stress responses of corals in subtropical environments remain largely unquantified, limiting our capacity to predict their future viability. The annual survival, growth and recruitment of 311 individual corals within the Solitary Islands Marine Park (Australia) was recorded over a 3-year period (2016-2018), including the 2015/2016 thermal stress event. These data were used to parameterise integral projection models quantifying the effect of thermal stress within a subtropical coral assemblage. Stochastic simulations were also applied to evaluate the implications of recurrent thermal stress scenarios predicted by four different Representative Concentration Pathways. We report differential shifts in population growth rates (λ) among coral populations during both stress and non-stress periods, confirming contrasting bleaching responses among taxa. However, even during non-stress periods, the observed dynamics for all taxa were unable to maintain current community composition, highlighting the need for external recruitment sources to support the community structure. Across all coral taxa, projected stochastic growth rates (λs ) were found to be lowest under higher emissions scenarios. Correspondingly, predicted increases in recurrent thermal stress regimes may accelerate the loss of coral coverage, species diversity and structural complexity within subtropical regions. We suggest that these trends are primarily due to the susceptibility of subtropical specialists and endemic species, such as Pocillopora aliciae, to thermal stress. Similarly, the viability of many tropical coral populations at higher latitudes is highly dependent on the persistence of up-current tropical systems. As such, the inherent dynamics of subtropical coral populations appear unable to support their future persistence under unprecedented thermal disturbance scenarios.