Factors predicting mortality in hospitalised HIV-negative children with lower-chest-wall indrawing pneumonia and implications for management.

INTRODUCTION: In 2012, the World Health Organization revised treatment guidelines for childhood pneumonia with lower chest wall indrawing (LCWI) but no 'danger signs', to recommend home-based treatment. We analysed data from children hospitalized with LCWI pneumonia in the Pneumonia Etiology Research for Child Health (PERCH) study to identify sub-groups with high odds of mortality, who might continue to benefit from hospital management but may not be admitted by staff implementing the 2012 guidelines. We compare the proportion of deaths identified using the criteria in the 2012 guidelines, and the proportion of deaths identified using an alternative set of criteria from our model. METHODS: PERCH enrolled a cohort of 2189 HIV-negative children aged 2-59 months who were admitted to hospital with LCWI pneumonia (without obvious cyanosis, inability to feed, vomiting, convulsions, lethargy or head nodding) between 2011-2014 in Kenya, Zambia, South Africa, Mali, The Gambia, Bangladesh, and Thailand. We analysed risk factors for mortality among these cases using predictive logistic regression. Malnutrition was defined as mid-upper-arm circumference <125mm or weight-for-age z-score <-2. RESULTS: Among 2189 cases, 76 (3·6%) died. Mortality was associated with oxygen saturation <92% (aOR 3·33, 1·99-5·99), HIV negative but exposed status (4·59, 1·81-11·7), moderate or severe malnutrition (6·85, 3·22-14·6) and younger age (infants compared to children 12-59 months old, OR 2·03, 95%CI 1·05-3·93). At least one of three risk factors: hypoxaemia, HIV exposure, or malnutrition identified 807 children in this population, 40% of LCWI pneumonia cases and identified 86% of the children who died in hospital (65/76). Risk factors identified using the 2012 WHO treatment guidelines identified 66% of the children who died in hospital (n = 50/76). CONCLUSIONS: Although it focuses on treatment failure in hospital, this study supports the proposal for better risk stratification of children with LCWI pneumonia. Those who have hypoxaemia, any malnutrition or those who were born to HIV positive mothers, experience poorer outcomes than other children with LCWI pneumonia. Consistent identification of these risk factors should be prioritised and children with at least one of these risk factors should not be managed in the community.

Pre COVID-19 molecular epidemiology of respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) among children in Bangladesh.

Epidemiological data of specific respiratory pathogens from the pre-COVID-19 period are essential to determine the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on other respiratory infections. In this study, we revealed the pre-COVID-19 molecular epidemiology of respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) among children in Bangladesh. We tested 3170 samples collected from 2008 to 2012 for a panel of respiratory viruses; RSV, human metapneumovirus (hMPV), human parainfluenza viruses (hPIV) 1, 2, 3, and adenovirus. Five hundred fifty-five samples (17.5 %) were positive for RSV, including 2.5% having co-infections with other viruses. Genotypic characterization of RSV showed that RSV-A (82%) contributed more acute respiratory infections than RSV-B (18%). Clinical features were similar with RSV-A and RSV-B infections. However, children with RSV-B were more likely to have upper respiratory infections (URI) (10% vs. 29%, p = 0.03). Among RSV-A cases, hospitalization was higher for ON1 cases (25%, ON1 vs. 8%, NA1, p = 0.04), whereas the recovery without a disability was higher among the NA1 cases (56%, ON1 vs. 88%, NA1, p = 0.02). The time to the most recent common ancestor (TMRCA) for RSV in Bangladesh was 1949 for RSV-A and 1944 for RSV-B. This study revealed the genotypic diversity and evolutionary relatedness of RSV strains in Bangladesh and provided pre-COVID molecular epidemiology data to understand better the COVID-19 impact on upcoming RSV epidemiology in Bangladesh.

Digitally recorded and remotely classified lung auscultation compared with conventional stethoscope classifications among children aged 1-59 months enrolled in the Pneumonia Etiology Research for Child Health (PERCH) case-control study.

BACKGROUND: Diagnosis of pneumonia remains challenging. Digitally recorded and remote human classified lung sounds may offer benefits beyond conventional auscultation, but it is unclear whether classifications differ between the two approaches. We evaluated concordance between digital and conventional auscultation. METHODS: We collected digitally recorded lung sounds, conventional auscultation classifications and clinical measures and samples from children with pneumonia (cases) in low-income and middle-income countries. Physicians remotely classified recordings as crackles, wheeze or uninterpretable. Conventional and digital auscultation concordance was evaluated among 383 pneumonia cases with concurrently (within 2 hours) collected conventional and digital auscultation classifications using prevalence-adjusted bias-adjusted kappa (PABAK). Using an expanded set of 737 cases that also incorporated the non-concurrently collected assessments, we evaluated whether associations between auscultation classifications and clinical or aetiological findings differed between conventional or digital auscultation using χ2 tests and logistic regression adjusted for age, sex and site. RESULTS: Conventional and digital auscultation concordance was moderate for classifying crackles and/or wheeze versus neither crackles nor wheeze (PABAK=0.50), and fair for crackles-only versus not crackles-only (PABAK=0.30) and any wheeze versus no wheeze (PABAK=0.27). Crackles were more common on conventional auscultation, whereas wheeze was more frequent on digital auscultation. Compared with neither crackles nor wheeze, crackles-only on both conventional and digital auscultation was associated with abnormal chest radiographs (adjusted OR (aOR)=1.53, 95% CI 0.99 to 2.36; aOR=2.09, 95% CI 1.19 to 3.68, respectively); any wheeze was inversely associated with C-reactive protein >40 mg/L using conventional auscultation (aOR=0.50, 95% CI 0.27 to 0.92) and with very severe pneumonia using digital auscultation (aOR=0.67, 95% CI 0.46 to 0.97). Crackles-only on digital auscultation was associated with mortality compared with any wheeze (aOR=2.70, 95% CI 1.12 to 6.25). CONCLUSIONS: Conventional auscultation and remotely-classified digital auscultation displayed moderate concordance for presence/absence of wheeze and crackles among cases. Conventional and digital auscultation may provide different classification patterns, but wheeze was associated with decreased clinical severity on both.

Associations between ambient fine particulate matter and child respiratory infection: The role of particulate matter source composition in Dhaka, Bangladesh.

Air pollution in the form of fine particulate matter (PM2.5) has been linked to adverse respiratory outcomes in children. However, the magnitude of this association in South Asia and sources of PM2.5 that drive adverse health effects are largely unknown. This study evaluates associations between short-term variation in ambient PM2.5 and incidence of pneumonia and upper respiratory infections among children in Dhaka, Bangladesh. We also perform an exploratory analysis of the PM2.5 source composition that is most strongly associated with health endpoints. We leveraged data from health surveillance of children less than five years of age between 2005 and 2014 in Kamalapur, Bangladesh, including daily physician-confirmed diagnoses of pneumonia and upper respiratory infection. Twice-weekly source-apportioned ambient PM2.5 measurements were obtained for the same period, and Poisson regression adjusted for time-varying covariates was used to estimate lagged associations between ambient PM2.5 and respiratory infection. We use complementary matching and stratification approaches to evaluate whether these associations vary across PM2.5 source composition. Total PM2.5 mass was associated with a modest increase in incidence of pneumonia, with a peak effect size two days after exposure (rate ratio = 1.032; 95% confidence interval = 1.008-1.056). We did not identify a significant association between PM2.5 and upper respiratory infection. Stratified and matching analyses suggested this association was stronger among days when ambient PM2.5 had a higher mass percent associated with brick kiln and fugitive lead emissions.: This study suggests that elevated ambient PM2.5 contributes to increased incidence of child pneumonia in urban Dhaka, and that this relationship varies among days with different source composition of PM2.5.

Introduction to the Site-specific Etiologic Results From the Pneumonia Etiology Research for Child Health (PERCH) Study.

The Pneumonia Etiology Research for Child Health (PERCH) study evaluated the etiology of severe and very severe pneumonia in children hospitalized in 7 African and Asian countries. Here, we summarize the highlights of in-depth site-specific etiology analyses published separately in this issue, including how etiology varies by age, mortality status, malnutrition, severity, HIV status, and more. These site-specific results impart important lessons that can inform disease control policy implications.

The Etiology of Childhood Pneumonia in Bangladesh: Findings From the Pneumonia Etiology Research for Child Health (PERCH) Study.

BACKGROUND: Pneumonia remains the leading infectious cause of death among children <5 years, but its cause in most children is unknown. We estimated etiology for each child in 2 Bangladesh sites that represent rural and urban South Asian settings with moderate child mortality. METHODS: As part of the Pneumonia Etiology Research for Child Health study, we enrolled children 1-59 months of age with World Health Organization-defined severe and very severe pneumonia, plus age-frequency-matched controls, in Matlab and Dhaka, Bangladesh. We applied microbiologic methods to nasopharyngeal/oropharyngeal swabs, blood, induced sputum, gastric and lung aspirates. Etiology was estimated using Bayesian methods that integrated case and control data and accounted for imperfect sensitivity and specificity of the measurements. RESULTS: We enrolled 525 cases and 772 controls over 24 months. Of the cases, 9.1% had very severe pneumonia and 42.0% (N = 219) had infiltrates on chest radiograph. Three cases (1.5%) had positive blood cultures (2 Salmonella typhi, 1 Escherichia coli and Klebsiella pneumoniae). All 4 lung aspirates were negative. The etiology among chest radiograph-positive cases was predominantly viral [77.7%, 95% credible interval (CrI): 65.3-88.6], primarily respiratory syncytial virus (31.2%, 95% CrI: 24.7-39.3). Influenza virus had very low estimated etiology (0.6%, 95% CrI: 0.0-2.3). Mycobacterium tuberculosis (3.6%, 95% CrI: 0.5-11.0), Enterobacteriaceae (3.0%, 95% CrI: 0.5-10.0) and Streptococcus pneumoniae (1.8%, 95% CrI: 0.0-5.9) were the only nonviral pathogens in the top 10 etiologies. CONCLUSIONS: Childhood severe and very severe pneumonia in young children in Bangladesh is predominantly viral, notably respiratory syncytial virus.

Global burden of acute lower respiratory infection associated with human parainfluenza virus in children younger than 5 years for 2018: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Human parainfluenza virus (hPIV) is a common virus in childhood acute lower respiratory infections (ALRI). However, no estimates have been made to quantify the global burden of hPIV in childhood ALRI. We aimed to estimate the global and regional hPIV-associated and hPIV-attributable ALRI incidence, hospital admissions, and mortality for children younger than 5 years and stratified by 0-5 months, 6-11 months, and 12-59 months of age. METHODS: We did a systematic review of hPIV-associated ALRI burden studies published between Jan 1, 1995, and Dec 31, 2020, found in MEDLINE, Embase, Global Health, Cumulative Index to Nursing and Allied Health Literature, Web of Science, Global Health Library, three Chinese databases, and Google search, and also identified a further 41 high-quality unpublished studies through an international research network. We included studies reporting community incidence of ALRI with laboratory-confirmed hPIV; hospital admission rates of ALRI or ALRI with hypoxaemia in children with laboratory-confirmed hPIV; proportions of patients with ALRI admitted to hospital with laboratory-confirmed hPIV; or in-hospital case-fatality ratios (hCFRs) of ALRI with laboratory-confirmed hPIV. We used a modified Newcastle-Ottawa Scale to assess risk of bias. We analysed incidence, hospital admission rates, and hCFRs of hPIV-associated ALRI using a generalised linear mixed model. Adjustment was made to account for the non-detection of hPIV-4. We estimated hPIV-associated ALRI cases, hospital admissions, and in-hospital deaths using adjusted incidence, hospital admission rates, and hCFRs. We estimated the overall hPIV-associated ALRI mortality (both in-hospital and out-hospital mortality) on the basis of the number of in-hospital deaths and care-seeking for child pneumonia. We estimated hPIV-attributable ALRI burden by accounting for attributable fractions for hPIV in laboratory-confirmed hPIV cases and deaths. Sensitivity analyses were done to validate the estimates of overall hPIV-associated ALRI mortality and hPIV-attributable ALRI mortality. The systematic review protocol was registered on PROSPERO (CRD42019148570). FINDINGS: 203 studies were identified, including 162 hPIV-associated ALRI burden studies and a further 41 high-quality unpublished studies. Globally in 2018, an estimated 18·8 million (uncertainty range 12·8-28·9) ALRI cases, 725 000 (433 000-1 260 000) ALRI hospital admissions, and 34 400 (16 400-73 800) ALRI deaths were attributable to hPIVs among children younger than 5 years. The age-stratified and region-stratified analyses suggested that about 61% (35% for infants aged 0-5 months and 26% for 6-11 months) of the hospital admissions and 66% (42% for infants aged 0-5 months and 24% for 6-11 months) of the in-hospital deaths were in infants, and 70% of the in-hospital deaths were in low-income and lower-middle-income countries. Between 73% and 100% (varying by outcome) of the data had a low risk in study design; the proportion was 46-65% for the adjustment for health-care use, 59-77% for patient groups excluded, 54-93% for case definition, 42-93% for sampling strategy, and 67-77% for test methods. Heterogeneity in estimates was found between studies for each outcome. INTERPRETATION: We report the first global burden estimates of hPIV-associated and hPIV-attributable ALRI in young children. Globally, approximately 13% of ALRI cases, 4-14% of ALRI hospital admissions, and 4% of childhood ALRI mortality were attributable to hPIV. These numbers indicate a potentially notable burden of hPIV in ALRI morbidity and mortality in young children. These estimates should encourage and inform investment to accelerate the development of targeted interventions. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Upper Respiratory Tract Co-detection of Human Endemic Coronaviruses and High-density Pneumococcus Associated With Increased Severity Among HIV-Uninfected Children Under 5 Years Old in the PERCH Study.

BACKGROUND: Severity of viral respiratory illnesses can be increased with bacterial coinfection and can vary by sex, but influence of coinfection and sex on human endemic coronavirus (CoV) species, which generally cause mild to moderate respiratory illness, is unknown. We evaluated CoV and pneumococcal co-detection by sex in childhood pneumonia. METHODS: In the 2011-2014 Pneumonia Etiology Research for Child Health study, nasopharyngeal and oropharyngeal (NP/OP) swabs and other samples were collected from 3981 children <5 years hospitalized with severe or very severe pneumonia in 7 countries. Severity by NP/OP detection status of CoV (NL63, 229E, OC43 or HKU1) and high-density (≥6.9 log10 copies/mL) pneumococcus (HDSpn) by real-time polymerase chain reaction was assessed by sex using logistic regression adjusted for age and site. RESULTS: There were 43 (1.1%) CoV+/HDSpn+, 247 CoV+/HDSpn-, 449 CoV-/HDSpn+ and 3149 CoV-/HDSpn- cases with no significant difference in co-detection frequency by sex (range 51.2%-64.0% male, P = 0.06). More CoV+/HDSpn+ pneumonia was very severe compared with other groups for both males (13/22, 59.1% versus range 29.1%-34.7%, P = 0.04) and females (10/21, 47.6% versus 32.5%-43.5%, P = 0.009), but only male CoV+/HDSpn+ required supplemental oxygen more frequently (45.0% versus 20.6%-28.6%, P < 0.001) and had higher mortality (35.0% versus 5.3%-7.1%, P = 0.004) than other groups. For females with CoV+/HDSpn+, supplemental oxygen was 25.0% versus 24.8%-33.3% (P = 0.58) and mortality was 10.0% versus 9.2%-12.9% (P = 0.69). CONCLUSIONS: Co-detection of endemic CoV and HDSpn was rare in children hospitalized with pneumonia, but associated with higher severity and mortality in males. Findings may warrant investigation of differences in severity by sex with co-detection of HDSpn and SARS-CoV-2.

Urinary arsenic is associated with wasting and underweight status in young children in rural Bangladesh.

BACKGROUND: Deficits in child growth are associated with poor cognitive outcomes and an increased risk for infection and mortality globally. One hundred forty million people are chronically exposed to arsenic from contaminated drinking water worldwide. While arsenic exposure has been associated with cognitive developmental delays in children, there is limited research on the association between arsenic exposure and growth deficits in young children. PURPOSE: The objective of this study was to assess the association between chronic arsenic exposure and deficits in growth among children under 5 years in a rural setting in Bangladesh. METHODS: Urinary arsenic measurements were collected from 465 children between the ages of 28 days-59 months in rural Matlab, Bangladesh, and analyzed by graphite furnace atomic absorption. Height and weight measurements were collected from children according to World Health Organization child growth standards. A z-score cutoff2 standard deviations below the mean was used to define stunting (height-for-age z-score), underweight (weight-for-age z-score), and wasting (weight-for-height z-score). RESULTS: Children under 5 years with urinary arsenic concentrations in the third tertile (greater than 31 µg per liter (µg/L)) had a two times higher odds of being underweight after adjustment for age, creatinine, paternal education, breastfeeding, number of individuals using the same sleeping room, and physician-diagnosed pneumonia (Odds Ratio (OR): 2.29 (95% Confidence Interval (CI): 1.16, 4.52)). Children under 2 years of age had a two times higher odds of being wasted after adjustment for age, creatinine, paternal education, breastfeeding, number of individuals using the same sleeping room, and physician-diagnosed pneumonia (OR: 2.85 (95% CI: 1.18, 6.89)). CONCLUSIONS: These findings suggest that arsenic exposure is associated with an increased odds of being wasted and underweight among young children in rural Bangladesh.

The Etiology of Pneumonia From Analysis of Lung Aspirate and Pleural Fluid Samples: Findings From the Pneumonia Etiology Research for Child Health (PERCH) Study.

BACKGROUND: An improved understanding of childhood pneumonia etiology is required to inform prevention and treatment strategies. Lung aspiration is the gold standard specimen for pneumonia diagnostics. We report findings from analyses of lung and pleural aspirates collected in the Pneumonia Etiology Research for Child Health (PERCH) study. METHODS: The PERCH study enrolled children aged 1-59 months hospitalized with World Health Organization-defined severe or very severe pneumonia in 7 countries in Africa and Asia. Percutaneous transthoracic lung aspiration (LA) and pleural fluid (PF) aspiration was performed on a sample of pneumonia cases with radiological consolidation and/or PF in 4 countries. Venous blood and nasopharyngeal/oropharyngeal swabs were collected from all cases. Multiplex quantitative polymerase chain reaction (PCR) and routine microbiologic culture were applied to clinical specimens. RESULTS: Of 44 LAs performed within 3 days of admission on 622 eligible cases, 13 (30%) had a pathogen identified by either culture (5/44) or by PCR (11/29). A pathogen was identified in 12/14 (86%) PF specimens tested by either culture (9/14) or PCR (9/11). Bacterial pathogens were identified more frequently than viruses. All but 1 of the cases with a virus identified were coinfected with bacterial pathogens. Streptococcus pneumoniae (9/44 [20%]) and Staphylococcus aureus (7/14 [50%]) were the predominant pathogens identified in LA and PF, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Bacterial pathogens predominated in this selected subgroup of PERCH participants drawn from those with radiological consolidation or PF, with S. pneumoniae and S. aureus the leading pathogens identified.

Global burden of acute lower respiratory infection associated with human metapneumovirus in children under 5 years in 2018: a systematic review and modelling study.

BACKGROUND: Human metapneumovirus is a common virus associated with acute lower respiratory infections (ALRIs) in children. No global burden estimates are available for ALRIs associated with human metapneumovirus in children, and no licensed vaccines or drugs exist for human metapneumovirus infections. We aimed to estimate the age-stratified human metapneumovirus-associated ALRI global incidence, hospital admissions, and mortality burden in children younger than 5 years. METHODS: We estimated the global burden of human metapneumovirus-associated ALRIs in children younger than 5 years from a systematic review of 119 studies published between Jan 1, 2001, and Dec 31, 2019, and a further 40 high quality unpublished studies. We assessed risk of bias using a modified Newcastle-Ottawa Scale. We estimated incidence, hospital admission rates, and in-hospital case-fatality ratios (hCFRs) of human metapneumovirus-associated ALRI using a generalised linear mixed model. We applied incidence and hospital admission rates of human metapneumovirus-associated ALRI to population estimates to yield the morbidity burden estimates by age bands and World Bank income levels. We also estimated human metapneumovirus-associated ALRI in-hospital deaths and overall human metapneumovirus-associated ALRI deaths (both in-hospital and non-hospital deaths). Additionally, we estimated human metapneumovirus-attributable ALRI cases, hospital admissions, and deaths by combining human metapneumovirus-associated burden estimates and attributable fractions of human metapneumovirus in laboratory-confirmed human metapneumovirus cases and deaths. FINDINGS: In 2018, among children younger than 5 years globally, there were an estimated 14·2 million human metapneumovirus-associated ALRI cases (uncertainty range [UR] 10·2 million to 20·1 million), 643 000 human metapneumovirus-associated hospital admissions (UR 425 000 to 977 000), 7700 human metapneumovirus-associated in-hospital deaths (2600 to 48 800), and 16 100 overall (hospital and community) human metapneumovirus-associated ALRI deaths (5700 to 88 000). An estimated 11·1 million ALRI cases (UR 8·0 million to 15·7 million), 502 000 ALRI hospital admissions (UR 332 000 to 762 000), and 11 300 ALRI deaths (4000 to 61 600) could be causally attributed to human metapneumovirus in 2018. Around 58% of the hospital admissions were in infants under 12 months, and 64% of in-hospital deaths occurred in infants younger than 6 months, of which 79% occurred in low-income and lower-middle-income countries. INTERPRETATION: Infants younger than 1 year have disproportionately high risks of severe human metapneumovirus infections across all World Bank income regions and all child mortality settings, similar to respiratory syncytial virus and influenza virus. Infants younger than 6 months in low-income and lower-middle-income countries are at greater risk of death from human metapneumovirus-associated ALRI than older children and those in upper-middle-income and high-income countries. Our mortality estimates demonstrate the importance of intervention strategies for infants across all settings, and warrant continued efforts to improve the outcome of human metapneumovirus-associated ALRI among young infants in low-income and lower-middle-income countries. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Use of surveys to evaluate an integrated oral cholera vaccine campaign in response to a cholera outbreak in Hoima district, Uganda.

OBJECTIVES: To evaluate the quality and coverage of the campaign to distribute oral cholera vaccine (OCV) during a cholera outbreak in Hoima, Uganda to guide future campaigns of cholera vaccine. DESIGN: Survey of communities targeted for vaccination to determine vaccine coverage rates and perceptions of the vaccination campaign, and a separate survey of vaccine staff who carried out the campaign. SETTING: Hoima district, Uganda. PARTICIPANTS: Representative clusters of households residing in the communities targeted for vaccination and staff members who conducted the vaccine campaign. RESULTS: Among 209 households (1274 individuals) included in the coverage survey, 1193 (94%; 95% CI 92% to 95%) reported receiving at least one OCV dose and 998 (78%; 95% CI 76% to 81%) reported receiving two doses. Among vaccinated individuals, minor complaints were reported by 71 persons (5.6%). Individuals with 'some' education (primary school or above) were more knowledgeable regarding the required OCV doses compared with non-educated (p=0.03). Factors negatively associated with campaign implementation included community sensitisation time, staff payment and problems with field transport. Although the campaign was carried out quickly, the outbreak was over before the campaign started. Most staff involved in the campaign (93%) were knowledgeable about cholera control; however, 29% did not clearly understand how to detect and manage adverse events following immunisation. CONCLUSION: The campaign achieved high OCV coverage, but the surveys provided insights for improvement. To achieve high vaccine coverage, more effort is needed for community sensitisation, and additional resources for staff transportation and timely payment for campaign staff is required. Pretest and post-test assessment of staff training can identify and address knowledge and skill gaps.

Digital auscultation in PERCH: Associations with chest radiography and pneumonia mortality in children.

BACKGROUND: Whether digitally recorded lung sounds are associated with radiographic pneumonia or clinical outcomes among children in low-income and middle-income countries is unknown. We sought to address these knowledge gaps. METHODS: We enrolled 1 to 59monthold children hospitalized with pneumonia at eight African and Asian Pneumonia Etiology Research for Child Health sites in six countries, recorded digital stethoscope lung sounds, obtained chest radiographs, and collected clinical outcomes. Recordings were processed and classified into binary categories positive or negative for adventitial lung sounds. Listening and reading panels classified recordings and radiographs. Recording classification associations with chest radiographs with World Health Organization (WHO)-defined primary endpoint pneumonia (radiographic pneumonia) or mortality were evaluated. We also examined case fatality among risk strata. RESULTS: Among children without WHO danger signs, wheezing (without crackles) had a lower adjusted odds ratio (aOR) for radiographic pneumonia (0.35, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.15, 0.82), compared to children with normal recordings. Neither crackle only (no wheeze) (aOR: 2.13, 95% CI: 0.91, 4.96) or any wheeze (with or without crackle) (aOR: 0.63, 95% CI: 0.34, 1.15) were associated with radiographic pneumonia. Among children with WHO danger signs no lung recording classification was independently associated with radiographic pneumonia, although trends toward greater odds of radiographic pneumonia were observed among children classified with crackle only (no wheeze) or any wheeze (with or without crackle). Among children without WHO danger signs, those with recorded wheezing had a lower case fatality than those without wheezing (3.8% vs. 9.1%, p = .03). CONCLUSIONS: Among lower risk children without WHO danger signs digitally recorded wheezing is associated with a lower odds for radiographic pneumonia and with lower mortality. Although further research is needed, these data indicate that with further development digital auscultation may eventually contribute to child pneumonia care.

The Predictive Performance of a Pneumonia Severity Score in Human Immunodeficiency Virus-negative Children Presenting to Hospital in 7 Low- and Middle-income Countries.

BACKGROUND: In 2015, pneumonia remained the leading cause of mortality in children aged 1-59 months. METHODS: Data from 1802 human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-negative children aged 1-59 months enrolled in the Pneumonia Etiology Research for Child Health (PERCH) study with severe or very severe pneumonia during 2011-2014 were used to build a parsimonious multivariable model predicting mortality using backwards stepwise logistic regression. The PERCH severity score, derived from model coefficients, was validated on a second, temporally discrete dataset of a further 1819 cases and compared to other available scores using the C statistic. RESULTS: Predictors of mortality, across 7 low- and middle-income countries, were age <1 year, female sex, ≥3 days of illness prior to presentation to hospital, low weight for height, unresponsiveness, deep breathing, hypoxemia, grunting, and the absence of cough. The model discriminated well between those who died and those who survived (C statistic = 0.84), but the predictive capacity of the PERCH 5-stratum score derived from the coefficients was moderate (C statistic = 0.76). The performance of the Respiratory Index of Severity in Children score was similar (C statistic = 0.76). The number of World Health Organization (WHO) danger signs demonstrated the highest discrimination (C statistic = 0.82; 1.5% died if no danger signs, 10% if 1 danger sign, and 33% if ≥2 danger signs). CONCLUSIONS: The PERCH severity score could be used to interpret geographic variations in pneumonia mortality and etiology. The number of WHO danger signs on presentation to hospital could be the most useful of the currently available tools to aid clinical management of pneumonia.

Global patterns in monthly activity of influenza virus, respiratory syncytial virus, parainfluenza virus, and metapneumovirus: a systematic analysis.

BACKGROUND: Influenza virus, respiratory syncytial virus, parainfluenza virus, and metapneumovirus are the most common viruses associated with acute lower respiratory infections in young children (<5 years) and older people (≥65 years). A global report of the monthly activity of these viruses is needed to inform public health strategies and programmes for their control. METHODS: In this systematic analysis, we compiled data from a systematic literature review of studies published between Jan 1, 2000, and Dec 31, 2017; online datasets; and unpublished research data. Studies were eligible for inclusion if they reported laboratory-confirmed incidence data of human infection of influenza virus, respiratory syncytial virus, parainfluenza virus, or metapneumovirus, or a combination of these, for at least 12 consecutive months (or 52 weeks equivalent); stable testing practice throughout all years reported; virus results among residents in well-defined geographical locations; and aggregated virus results at least on a monthly basis. Data were extracted through a three-stage process, from which we calculated monthly annual average percentage (AAP) as the relative strength of virus activity. We defined duration of epidemics as the minimum number of months to account for 75% of annual positive samples, with each component month defined as an epidemic month. Furthermore, we modelled monthly AAP of influenza virus and respiratory syncytial virus using site-specific temperature and relative humidity for the prediction of local average epidemic months. We also predicted global epidemic months of influenza virus and respiratory syncytial virus on a 5° by 5° grid. The systematic review in this study is registered with PROSPERO, number CRD42018091628. FINDINGS: We initally identified 37 335 eligible studies. Of 21 065 studies remaining after exclusion of duplicates, 1081 full-text articles were assessed for eligibility, of which 185 were identified as eligible. We included 246 sites for influenza virus, 183 sites for respiratory syncytial virus, 83 sites for parainfluenza virus, and 65 sites for metapneumovirus. Influenza virus had clear seasonal epidemics in winter months in most temperate sites but timing of epidemics was more variable and less seasonal with decreasing distance from the equator. Unlike influenza virus, respiratory syncytial virus had clear seasonal epidemics in both temperate and tropical regions, starting in late summer months in the tropics of each hemisphere, reaching most temperate sites in winter months. In most temperate sites, influenza virus epidemics occurred later than respiratory syncytial virus (by 0·3 months [95% CI -0·3 to 0·9]) while no clear temporal order was observed in the tropics. Parainfluenza virus epidemics were found mostly in spring and early summer months in each hemisphere. Metapneumovirus epidemics occurred in late winter and spring in most temperate sites but the timing of epidemics was more diverse in the tropics. Influenza virus epidemics had shorter duration (3·8 months [3·6 to 4·0]) in temperate sites and longer duration (5·2 months [4·9 to 5·5]) in the tropics. Duration of epidemics was similar across all sites for respiratory syncytial virus (4·6 months [4·3 to 4·8]), as it was for metapneumovirus (4·8 months [4·4 to 5·1]). By comparison, parainfluenza virus had longer duration of epidemics (6·3 months [6·0 to 6·7]). Our model had good predictability in the average epidemic months of influenza virus in temperate regions and respiratory syncytial virus in both temperate and tropical regions. Through leave-one-out cross validation, the overall prediction error in the onset of epidemics was within 1 month (influenza virus -0·2 months [-0·6 to 0·1]; respiratory syncytial virus 0·1 months [-0·2 to 0·4]). INTERPRETATION: This study is the first to provide global representations of month-by-month activity of influenza virus, respiratory syncytial virus, parainfluenza virus, and metapneumovirus. Our model is helpful in predicting the local onset month of influenza virus and respiratory syncytial virus epidemics. The seasonality information has important implications for health services planning, the timing of respiratory syncytial virus passive prophylaxis, and the strategy of influenza virus and future respiratory syncytial virus vaccination. FUNDING: European Union Innovative Medicines Initiative Respiratory Syncytial Virus Consortium in Europe (RESCEU).

Clinical Evaluation of a Multiplex PCR for the Detection of Salmonella enterica Serovars Typhi and Paratyphi A from Blood Specimens in a High-Endemic Setting.

Enteric fever is a major public health concern in endemic areas, particularly in infrastructure-limited countries where Salmonella Paratyphi A has emerged in increasing proportion of cases. We aimed to evaluate a method to detect Salmonella Typhi (S. Typhi) and Salmonella Paratyphi A (S. Paratyphi A) in febrile patients in Bangladesh. We conducted a prospective study enrolling patients with fever > 38°C admitted to two large urban hospitals and two outpatient clinics located in Dhaka, Bangladesh. We developed and evaluated a method combining short culture with a new molecular assay to simultaneously detect and differentiate S. Typhi and S. Paratyphi A from other Salmonella directly from 2 to 4 mL of whole blood in febrile patients (n = 680). A total of 680 cases were enrolled from the four participating sites. An increase in the detection rate (+38.8%) in S. Typhi and S. Paratyphi A was observed with a multiplex polymerase chain reaction (PCR) assay, and absence of non-typhoidal Salmonella detection was reported. All 45 healthy controls were culture and PCR negative, generating an estimated 92.9% of specificity on clinical samples. When clinical performance was assessed in the absence of blood volume prioritization for testing, a latent class model estimates clinical performance ≥ 95% in sensitivity and specificity with likelihood ratio (LR) LR+ > 10 and LR- < 0.1 for the multiplex PCR assay. The alternative method to blood culture we developed may be useful alone or in combination with culture or serological tests for epidemiological studies in high disease burden settings and should be considered as secondary endpoint test for future vaccine trials.

Population-based Incidence of Childhood Pneumonia Associated With Viral Infections in Bangladesh.

BACKGROUND: The contribution of respiratory viruses to childhood pneumonia in tropical low- and middle-income countries is poorly understood. We used population-based respiratory illness surveillance in children 5 years of age or younger in Dhaka, Bangladesh, to characterize these illnesses. METHODS: We conducted weekly home visits to children who were referred to clinic for fever or respiratory symptoms. Standardized clinical data were collected. Nasopharyngeal washes were collected for one fifth of children diagnosed with a febrile or respiratory syndrome, with virus isolation testing for influenza and reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction testing for other viruses. Pneumonia was defined as age-specific tachypnea and crepitations on chest auscultation by study physicians. RESULTS: From April 2004 to February 2008, 17,584 children were followed for 17,644 child-years; 6335 children had 12,499 clinic visits with eligible illnesses, including 6345 pneumonia episodes (incidence of 36 episodes/100 child-years). Annual incidence of pneumonia/100 child-years ranged from 88.3 for children 0-6 months of age to 13.1 for those 36-60 months of age. Of 1248 pneumonia visits with laboratory testing, 803 (64%) had detection of viral pathogens, including 274 respiratory syncytial virus (22% of pneumonia visits with laboratory testing; incidence 7.9/100 child-years), 244 adenovirus (19%; 7.0/100 child-years), 198 human metapneumovirus (16%; 5.7/100 child-years), 174 parainfluenza (14.0%; 5.0/100 child-years), and 81 influenza (6.5%; 2.3/100 child years). CONCLUSIONS: Viral pathogens contribute to a majority of childhood pneumonia episodes in Bangladesh, a setting with high pneumonia rates, especially in children 2 years of age or younger. Developing effective prevention strategies targeting these children is a high priority. Given less sensitive laboratory method used for influenza detection, influenza rates may be underestimated.

The Effect of Preexisting Immunity on Virus Detection and Immune Responses in a Phase II, Randomized Trial of a Russian-Backbone, Live, Attenuated Influenza Vaccine in Bangladeshi Children.

BACKGROUND: In a 2012 Phase II clinical trial, 300 Bangladeshi children aged 24 to 59 months with no prior influenza vaccine exposure were randomized to receive a single intranasally-administered dose of either trivalent, Russian-backbone, live, attenuated influenza vaccine (LAIV) or placebo. Protocol-defined analyses, presented in the companion manuscript, demonstrate decreased viral detection and immunogenicity for A/H1N1pdm09, relative to the A/H3N2 and B strains. This post hoc analysis of the trial data aims to investigate the LAIV strain differences by testing the hypothesis that preexisting humoral and mucosal immunity may influence viral recovery and immune responses after LAIV receipt. METHODS: We used logistic regressions to evaluate the relations between markers of preexisting immunity (ie, hemagglutination inhibition [HAI], microneutralization, and immunoglobulin G and immunoglobulin A (both serum and mucosal antibodies) and LAIV viral recovery in the week post-vaccination. We then tested for potential effect modification by baseline HAI titers (ie, <10 versus ≥10) and week 1 viral recovery on the LAIV-induced serum and mucosal immune responses, measured between days 0 and 21 post-vaccination. RESULTS: Higher levels of preexisting immunity to influenza A/H3N2 and B were strongly associated with strain-specific prevention of viral shedding upon LAIV receipt. While evidence of LAIV immunogenicity was observed for all 3 strains, the magnitudes of immune responses were most pronounced in children with no evidence of preexisting HAI and in those with detectable virus. CONCLUSIONS: The results provide evidence for a bidirectional association between viral replication and immunity, and underscore the importance of accounting for preexisting immunity when evaluating virologic and immunologic responses to LAIVs. CLINICAL TRIALS REGISTRATION: NCT01625689.

Immunogenicity and Viral Shedding of Russian-Backbone, Seasonal, Trivalent, Live, Attenuated Influenza Vaccine in a Phase II, Randomized, Placebo-Controlled Trial Among Preschool-Aged Children in Urban Bangladesh.

BACKGROUND: We evaluated a Russian-backbone, live, attenuated influenza vaccine (LAIV) for immunogenicity and viral shedding in a randomized, placebo-controlled trial among Bangladeshi children. METHODS: Healthy children received a single, intranasal dose of LAIV containing the 2011-2012 recommended formulation or placebo. Nasopharyngeal wash (NPW) specimens were collected on days 0, 2, 4, and 7. Reverse transcription polymerase chain reactions and sequencing identified the influenza virus (vaccine or wild-type). On days 0 and 21, blood specimens were collected to assess immunogenicity using hemagglutination inhibition, microneutralization, and immunoglobulin A (IgA) and G enzyme-linked immunosorbent assays (ELISAs); NPW specimens were also collected to assess mucosal immunogenicity using kinetic IgA ELISA. RESULTS: We enrolled 300 children aged 24 through 59 months in the immunogenicity and viral shedding analyses. Among children receiving LAIV, 45% and 67% shed A/H3N2 and B vaccine strains, respectively. No child shed A/H1N1 vaccine strain. There were significantly higher day 21 geometric mean titers (GMTs) for the LAIV, as compared to the placebo groups, in all immunoassays for A/H3N2 and B (log10 titer P < .0001; GMT Ratio >2.0). Among immunoassays for A/H1N1, only the mucosal IgA GMT was significantly higher than placebo at day 21 (log10 titer P = .0465). CONCLUSIONS: Children vaccinated with LAIV had serum and mucosal antibody responses to A/H3N2 and B, but only a mucosal IgA response to A/H1N1. Many children shed A/H3N2 and B vaccine strains, but none shed A/H1N1. More research is needed to determine the reason for decreased LAIV A/H1N1 immunogenicity and virus shedding. CLINICAL TRIALS REGISTRATION: NCT01625689.

Environmental Surveillance of Vibrio cholerae O1/O139 in the Five African Great Lakes and Other Major Surface Water Sources in Uganda.

Cholera is a major public health problem in the African Great Lakes basin. Two hypotheses might explain this observation, namely the lakes are reservoirs of toxigenic Vibrio cholerae O1 and O139 bacteria, or cholera outbreaks are a result of repeated pathogen introduction from the neighboring communities/countries but the lakes facilitate the introductions. A prospective study was conducted in Uganda between February 2015 and January 2016 in which 28 selected surface water sources were tested for the presence of V. cholerae species using cholera rapid test and multiplex polymerase chain reaction. Of 322 water samples tested, 35 (10.8%) were positive for V. cholerae non O1/non O139 and two samples tested positive for non-toxigenic atypical V. cholerae O139. None of the samples tested had toxigenic V. cholerae O1 or O139 that are responsible for cholera epidemics. The Lake Albert region registered the highest number of positive tests for V. cholerae non O1/non O139 at 47% (9/19). The peak period for V. cholerae non O1/non O139 positive tests was in March-July 2015 which coincided with the first rainy season in Uganda. This study showed that the surface water sources, including the African Great Lakes in Uganda, are less likely to be reservoirs for the observed V. cholerae O1 or O139 epidemics, though they are natural habitats for V. cholerae non O1/non O139 and atypical non-toxigenic V. cholerae O139. Further studies by WGS tests of non-toxigenic atypical V. cholerae O139 and physicochemical tests of surface water sources that supports V. cholerae should be done to provide more information. Since V. cholerae non O1/non O139 may cause other human infections, their continued surveillance is needed to understand their potential pathogenicity.