Economic optimization of Wolbachia-infected Aedes aegypti release to prevent dengue.

BACKGROUND: Dengue virus, primarily transmitted by the Aedes aegypti mosquito, is a major public health concern affecting ≈3.83 billion people worldwide. Recent releases of Wolbachia-transinfected Ae. aegypti in several cities worldwide have shown that it can reduce dengue transmission. However, these releases are costly, and, to date, no framework has been proposed for determining economically optimal release strategies that account for both costs associated with disease risk and releases. RESULTS: We present a flexible stochastic dynamic programming framework for determining optimal release schedules for Wolbachia-transinfected mosquitoes that balances the cost of dengue infection with the costs of rearing and releasing transinfected mosquitoes. Using an ordinary differential equation model of Wolbachia and dengue in a hypothetical city loosely describing areas at risk of new dengue epidemics, we determined that an all-or-nothing release strategy that quickly brings Wolbachia to fixation is often the optimal solution. Based on this, we examined the optimal facility size, finding that it was inelastic with respect to the mosquito population size, with a 100% increase in population size resulting in a 50-67% increase in optimal facility size. Furthermore, we found that these results are robust to mosquito life-history parameters and are mostly determined by the mosquito population size and the fitness costs associated with Wolbachia. CONCLUSIONS: These results reinforce that Wolbachia-transinfected mosquitoes can reduce the cost of dengue epidemics. Furthermore, they emphasize the importance of determining the size of the target population and fitness costs associated with Wolbachia before releases occur. © 2024 The Authors. Pest Management Science published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of Society of Chemical Industry.

Governing evolution: A socioecological comparison of resistance management for insecticidal transgenic Bt crops among four countries.

Cooperative management of pest susceptibility to transgenic Bacillus thuringiensis (Bt) crops is pursued worldwide in a variety of forms and to varying degrees of success depending on context. We examine this context using a comparative socioecological analysis of resistance management in Australia, Brazil, India, and the United States. We find that a shared understanding of resistance risks among government regulators, growers, and other actors is critical for effective governance. Furthermore, monitoring of grower compliance with resistance management requirements, surveillance of resistance, and mechanisms to support rapid implementation of remedial actions are essential to achieve desirable outcomes. Mandated resistance management measures, strong coordination between actors, and direct linkages between the group that appraises resistance risks and growers also appear to enhance prospects for effective governance. Our analysis highlights factors that could improve current governance systems and inform other initiatives to conserve susceptibility as a contribution to the cause of public good.

Does the U.S. public support using gene drives in agriculture? And what do they want to know?

Gene drive development is progressing more rapidly than our understanding of public values toward these technologies. We analyze a statistically representative survey (n = 1018) of U.S. adult attitudes toward agricultural gene drives. When informed about potential risks, benefits, and two previously researched applications, respondents' support/opposition depends heavily (+22%/-19%) on whether spread of drives can be limited, non-native versus native species are targeted (+12%/-9%), or the drive replaces versus suppresses target species (±2%). The one-fifth of respondents seeking out non-GMO-labeled food are more likely to oppose drives, although their support exceeds opposition for limited applications. Over 62% trust U.S. universities and the Department of Agriculture to research gene drives, with the private sector and Department of Defense viewed as more untrustworthy. Uncertain human health and ecological effects are the public's most important concerns to resolve. These findings can inform responsible innovation in gene drive development and risk assessment.

Prices, peers, and perceptions (P3): study protocol for improved biomass cookstove project in northern Ghana.

BACKGROUND: Despite their potential health and social benefits, adoption and use of improved cookstoves has been low throughout much of the world. Explanations for low adoption rates of these technologies include prices that are not affordable for the target populations, limited opportunities for households to learn about cookstoves through peers, and perceptions that these technologies are not appropriate for local cooking needs. The P3 project employs a novel experimental design to explore each of these factors and their interactive effects on cookstove demand, adoption, use and exposure outcomes. METHODS: The P3 study is being conducted in the Kassena-Nankana Districts of Northern Ghana. Leveraging an earlier improved cookstove study that was conducted in this area, the central design of the P3 biomass stove experiment involves offering stoves at randomly varying prices to peers and non-peers of households that had previously received stoves for free. Using household surveys, electronic stove use monitors, and low-cost, portable monitoring equipment, we measure how prices and peers' experience affect perceptions of stove quality, the decision to purchase a stove, use of improved and traditional stoves over time, and personal exposure to air pollutants from the stoves. DISCUSSION: The challenges that public health and development communities have faced in spreading adoption of potentially welfare-enhancing technologies, like improved cookstoves, have highlighted the need for interdisciplinary, multisectoral approaches. The design of the P3 project draws on economic theory, public health practice, engineering, and environmental sciences, to more fully grasp the drivers and barriers to expanding access to and uptake of cleaner stoves. Our partnership between academic institutions, in the US and Ghana, and a local environmental non-governmental organization creates unique opportunities to disseminate and scale up lessons learned. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov NCT03617952 7/31/18 (Retrospectively Registered).

Wicked evolution: Can we address the sociobiological dilemma of pesticide resistance?

Resistance to insecticides and herbicides has cost billions of U.S. dollars in the agricultural sector and could result in millions of lives lost to insect-vectored diseases. We mostly continue to use pesticides as if resistance is a temporary issue that will be addressed by commercialization of new pesticides with novel modes of action. However, current evidence suggests that insect and weed evolution may outstrip our ability to replace outmoded chemicals and other control mechanisms. To avoid this outcome, we must address the mix of ecological, genetic, economic, and sociopolitical factors that prevent implementation of sustainable pest management practices. We offer an ambitious proposition.

Household perceptions and subjective valuations of indoor residual spraying programmes to control malaria in northern Uganda.

BACKGROUND: Insecticide-based tools remain critical for controlling vector-borne diseases in Uganda. Securing public support from targeted populations for such tools is an important component in sustaining their long-run effectiveness. Yet little quantitative evidence is available on the perceived benefits and costs of vector control programmes among targeted households. METHODS: A survey was administered to a clustered random sample of 612 households in Gulu and Oyam districts of northern Uganda during a period of very high malaria transmission and following a pilot indoor residual spray (IRS) programme. A discrete choice experiment was conducted within the survey, in which respondents indicated their preferences for different IRS programmes relative to money compensation in a series of experimentally controlled, hypothetical choice sets. The data were analysed using conditional logit regression models to estimate respondents' willingness to accept (WTA) some amount of money compensation in lieu of foregone malaria risk reductions. Latent class models were used to analyse whether respondent characteristics predicted WTA. RESULTS: Average WTA is estimated at $8.94 annually for a 10 % reduction in malaria risk, and additional co-benefits of IRS were estimated to be worth on average $54-$56 (depending on insecticide type) per round of IRS. Significant heterogeneity is observed: Four in five household heads in northern Uganda have high valuations for IRS programmes, while the remaining 20 % experience costly side effects of IRS (valued at between $2 and $3 per round). Statistically significant predictors of belonging to the high-value group include respondent gender, mean age of household members, participation in previous IRS, basic knowledge of mosquito reproduction, and the number of mosquito nets owned. Proxies for household income and wealth are not found to be statistically significant predictors of WTA. CONCLUSIONS: This study suggests that the majority of people in areas of high malaria transmission like northern Uganda place a high value on vector control programmes using IRS. However, there is significant heterogeneity in terms of the perceived side effects (positive and negative). This has implications for sustaining public support for these programmes in the long-term.

Insecticide resistance and malaria vector control: the importance of fitness cost mechanisms in determining economically optimal control trajectories.

The evolutionary dynamics of insecticide resistance in harmful arthropods has economic implications, not only for the control of agricultural pests (as has been well studied), but also for the control of disease vectors, such as malaria-transmitting Anopheles mosquitoes. Previous economic work on insecticide resistance illustrates the policy relevance of knowing whether insecticide resistance mutations involve fitness costs. Using a theoretical model, this article investigates economically optimal strategies for controlling malaria-transmitting mosquitoes when there is the potential for mosquitoes to evolve resistance to insecticides. Consistent with previous literature, we find that fitness costs are a key element in the computation of economically optimal resistance management strategies. Additionally, our models indicate that different biological mechanisms underlying these fitness costs (e.g., increased adult mortality and/or decreased fecundity) can significantly alter economically optimal resistance management strategies.