Predicting Survival for Patients With Metastatic Disease.

PURPOSE: This prospective study aimed to determine the accuracy of radiation oncologists in predicting the survival of patients with metastatic disease receiving radiation therapy and to understand factors associated with their accuracy. METHODS AND MATERIALS: This single-institution study surveyed 22 attending radiation oncologists to estimate patient survival. Survival predictions were defined as accurate if the observed survival (OS) was within the correct survival prediction category (0-6 months, >6-12 months, >12-24 months, and >24 months). The physicians made survival estimates for each course of radiation, yielding 877 analyzable predictions for 689 unique patients. Data analysis included Stuart's Tau C, logistic regression models, ordinal logistic regression models, and stepwise selection to examine variable interactions. RESULTS: Of the 877 radiation oncologists' predictions, 39.7% were accurate, 26.5% were underestimations, and 33.9% were overestimations. Stuart's Tau C showed low correlation between OS and survival estimates (0.3499), consistent with the inaccuracy reported in the literature. However, results showed less systematic overprediction than reported in the literature. Karnofsky performance status was the most significant predictor of accuracy, with greater accuracy for patients with shorter OS. Estimates were also more accurate for patients with lower Karnofsky performance status. Accuracy by patient age varied by primary site and race. Physician years of experience did not correlate with accuracy. CONCLUSIONS: The sampled radiation oncologists have a 40% accuracy in predicting patient survival. Future investigation should explore how survival estimates influence treatment decisions and how to improve survival prediction accuracy.

Germline cancer susceptibility gene variants, somatic second hits, and survival outcomes in patients with resected pancreatic cancer.

PURPOSE: Germline variants in double-strand DNA damage repair (dsDDR) genes (e.g., BRCA1/2) predispose to pancreatic adenocarcinoma (PDAC) and may predict sensitivity to platinum-based chemotherapy and poly(ADP) ribose polymerase (PARP) inhibitors. We sought to determine the prevalence and significance of germline cancer susceptibility gene variants in PDAC with paired somatic and survival analyses. METHODS: Using a customized next-generation sequencing panel, germline/somatic DNA was analyzed from 289 patients with resected PDAC ascertained without preselection for high-risk features (e.g., young age, personal/family history). All identified variants were assessed for pathogenicity. Outcomes were analyzed using multivariable-adjusted Cox proportional hazards regression. RESULTS: We found that 28/289 (9.7%; 95% confidence interval [CI] 6.5-13.7%) patients carried pathogenic/likely pathogenic germline variants, including 21 (7.3%) dsDDR gene variants (3 BRCA1, 4 BRCA2, 14 other dsDDR genes [ATM, BRIP1, CHEK2, NBN, PALB2, RAD50, RAD51C]), 3 Lynch syndrome, and 4 other genes (APC p.I1307K, CDKN2A, TP53). Somatic sequencing and immunohistochemistry identified second hits in the tumor in 12/27 (44.4%) patients with germline variants (1 failed sequencing). Compared with noncarriers, patients with germline dsDDR gene variants had superior overall survival (hazard ratio [HR] 0.54; 95% CI 0.30-0.99; P = 0.05). CONCLUSION: Nearly 10% of PDAC patients harbor germline variants, although the majority lack somatic second hits, the therapeutic significance of which warrants further study.

Lymph node metastases in resected pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma: predictors of disease recurrence and survival.

BACKGROUND: Few studies have simultaneously assessed the prognostic value of the multiple classification systems for lymph node (LN) metastases in resected pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC). METHODS: In 600 patients with resected PDAC, we examined the association of LN parameters (AJCC 7th and 8th editions, LN ratio (LNR), and log odds of metastatic LN (LODDS)) with pattern of recurrence and patient survival using logistic regression and Cox proportional hazards regression, respectively. Regression models adjusted for age, sex, margin status, tumour grade, and perioperative therapy. RESULTS: Lymph node metastases classified by AJCC 7th and 8th editions, LNR, and LODDS were associated with worse disease free-survival (DFS) and overall survival (OS) (all Ptrend<0.01). American Joint Committee on Cancer 8th edition effectively predicted DFS and OS, while minimising model complexity. Lymph node metastases had weaker prognostic value in patients with positive margins and distal resections (both Pinteraction<0.03). Lymph node metastases by AJCC 7th and 8th editions did not predict the likelihood of local disease as the first site of recurrence. CONCLUSIONS: American Joint Committee on Cancer 8th edition LN classification is an effective and practical tool to predict outcomes in patients with resected PDAC. However, the prognostic value of LN metastases is attenuated in patients with positive resection margins and distal pancreatectomies.