Rethinking ecological niches and geographic distributions in face of pervasive human influence in the Anthropocene.

Species are distributed in predictable ways in geographic spaces. The three principal factors that determine geographic distributions of species are biotic interactions (B), abiotic conditions (A), and dispersal ability or mobility (M). A species is expected to be present in areas that are accessible to it and that contain suitable sets of abiotic and biotic conditions for it to persist. A species' probability of presence can be quantified as a combination of responses to B, A, and M via ecological niche modeling (ENM; also frequently referred to as species distribution modeling or SDM). This analytical approach has been used broadly in ecology and biogeography, as well as in conservation planning and decision-making, but commonly in the context of 'natural' settings. However, it is increasingly recognized that human impacts, including changes in climate, land cover, and ecosystem function, greatly influence species' geographic ranges. In this light, historical distinctions between natural and anthropogenic factors have become blurred, and a coupled human-natural landscape is recognized as the new norm. Therefore, B, A, and M (BAM) factors need to be reconsidered to understand and quantify species' distributions in a world with a pervasive signature of human impacts. Here, we present a framework, termed human-influenced BAM (Hi-BAM, for distributional ecology that (i) conceptualizes human impacts in the form of six drivers, and (ii) synthesizes previous studies to show how each driver modifies the natural BAM and species' distributions. Given the importance and prevalence of human impacts on species distributions globally, we also discuss implications of this framework for ENM/SDM methods, and explore strategies by which to incorporate increasing human impacts in the methodology. Human impacts are redefining biogeographic patterns; as such, future studies should incorporate signals of human impacts integrally in modeling and forecasting species' distributions.

White Paper: An Integrated Perspective on the Causes of Hypometric Metabolic Scaling in Animals.

Larger animals studied during ontogeny, across populations, or across species, usually have lower mass-specific metabolic rates than smaller animals (hypometric scaling). This pattern is usually observed regardless of physiological state (e.g. basal, resting, field, maximally-active). The scaling of metabolism is usually highly correlated with the scaling of many life history traits, behaviors, physiological variables, and cellular/molecular properties, making determination of the causation of this pattern challenging. For across-species comparisons of resting and locomoting animals (but less so for across populations or during ontogeny), the mechanisms at the physiological and cellular level are becoming clear. Lower mass-specific metabolic rates of larger species at rest are due to a) lower contents of expensive tissues (brains, liver, kidneys), and b) slower ion leak across membranes at least partially due to membrane composition, with lower ion pump ATPase activities. Lower mass-specific costs of larger species during locomotion are due to lower costs for lower-frequency muscle activity, with slower myosin and Ca++ ATPase activities, and likely more elastic energy storage. The evolutionary explanation(s) for hypometric scaling remain(s) highly controversial. One subset of evolutionary hypotheses relies on constraints on larger animals due to changes in geometry with size; for example, lower surface-to-volume ratios of exchange surfaces may constrain nutrient or heat exchange, or lower cross-sectional areas of muscles and tendons relative to body mass ratios would make larger animals more fragile without compensation. Another subset of hypotheses suggests that hypometric scaling arises from biotic interactions and correlated selection, with larger animals experiencing less selection for mass-specific growth or neurolocomotor performance. A additional third type of explanation comes from population genetics. Larger animals with their lower effective population sizes and subsequent less effective selection relative to drift may have more deleterious mutations, reducing maximal performance and metabolic rates. Resolving the evolutionary explanation for the hypometric scaling of metabolism and associated variables is a major challenge for organismal and evolutionary biology. To aid progress, we identify some variation in terminology use that has impeded cross-field conversations on scaling. We also suggest that promising directions for the field to move forward include: 1) studies examining the linkages between ontogenetic, population-level, and cross-species allometries, 2) studies linking scaling to ecological or phylogenetic context, 3) studies that consider multiple, possibly interacting hypotheses, and 4) obtaining better field data for metabolic rates and the life history correlates of metabolic rate such as lifespan, growth rate and reproduction.

The Pace of Life: Metabolic Energy, Biological Time, and Life History.

New biophysical theory and electronic databases raise the prospect of deriving fundamental rules of life, a conceptual framework for how the structures and functions of molecules, cells and individual organisms give rise to emergent patterns and processes of ecology, evolution and biodiversity. This framework is very general, applying across taxa of animals from 10-10 g protists to 108 g whales, and across environments from deserts and abyssal depths to rain forests and coral reefs. It has several hallmarks: 1) Energy is the ultimate limiting resource for organisms and the currency of biological fitness. 2) Most organisms are nearly equally fit, because in each generation at steady state they transfer an equal quantity of energy (22.4 kJ/g) and biomass (1 g/g) to surviving offspring. This is the equal fitness paradigm (EFP) of Brown et al. (2018). 3) The enormous diversity of life histories is due largely to variation in metabolic rates (e.g., energy uptake and expenditure via assimilation, respiration and production) and biological times (e.g., generation time). As in standard allometric and metabolic theory, most physiological and life history traits scale approximately as quarter-power functions of body mass, m (rates as ∼m-1/4 and times as ∼m1/4), and as exponential functions of temperature. 4) Time is the fourth dimension of life. Generation time is the pace of life. 5) There is, however, considerable variation not accounted for by the above scalings and existing theories. Much of this "unexplained" variation is due to natural selection on life history traits to adapt the biological times of generations to the clock times of geochronological environmental cycles. 7) Most work on biological scaling and metabolic ecology has focused on respiration rate. The emerging synthesis applies conceptual foundations of energetics and the EFP to shift the focus to production rate and generation time.

How deregulation, drought and increasing fire impact Amazonian biodiversity.

Biodiversity contributes to the ecological and climatic stability of the Amazon Basin1,2, but is increasingly threatened by deforestation and fire3,4. Here we quantify these impacts over the past two decades using remote-sensing estimates of fire and deforestation and comprehensive range estimates of 11,514 plant species and 3,079 vertebrate species in the Amazon. Deforestation has led to large amounts of habitat loss, and fires further exacerbate this already substantial impact on Amazonian biodiversity. Since 2001, 103,079-189,755 km2 of Amazon rainforest has been impacted by fires, potentially impacting the ranges of 77.3-85.2% of species that are listed as threatened in this region5. The impacts of fire on the ranges of species in Amazonia could be as high as 64%, and greater impacts are typically associated with species that have restricted ranges. We find close associations between forest policy, fire-impacted forest area and their potential impacts on biodiversity. In Brazil, forest policies that were initiated in the mid-2000s corresponded to reduced rates of burning. However, relaxed enforcement of these policies in 2019 has seemingly begun to reverse this trend: approximately 4,253-10,343 km2 of forest has been impacted by fire, leading to some of the most severe potential impacts on biodiversity since 2009. These results highlight the critical role of policy enforcement in the preservation of biodiversity in the Amazon.

Areas of global importance for conserving terrestrial biodiversity, carbon and water.

To meet the ambitious objectives of biodiversity and climate conventions, the international community requires clarity on how these objectives can be operationalized spatially and how multiple targets can be pursued concurrently. To support goal setting and the implementation of international strategies and action plans, spatial guidance is needed to identify which land areas have the potential to generate the greatest synergies between conserving biodiversity and nature's contributions to people. Here we present results from a joint optimization that minimizes the number of threatened species, maximizes carbon retention and water quality regulation, and ranks terrestrial conservation priorities globally. We found that selecting the top-ranked 30% and 50% of terrestrial land area would conserve respectively 60.7% and 85.3% of the estimated total carbon stock and 66% and 89.8% of all clean water, in addition to meeting conservation targets for 57.9% and 79% of all species considered. Our data and prioritization further suggest that adequately conserving all species considered (vertebrates and plants) would require giving conservation attention to ~70% of the terrestrial land surface. If priority was given to biodiversity only, managing 30% of optimally located land area for conservation may be sufficient to meet conservation targets for 81.3% of the terrestrial plant and vertebrate species considered. Our results provide a global assessment of where land could be optimally managed for conservation. We discuss how such a spatial prioritization framework can support the implementation of the biodiversity and climate conventions.

Underappreciated plant vulnerabilities to heat waves.

With climate change, heat waves are becoming increasingly frequent, intense and broader in spatial extent. However, while the lethal effects of heat waves on humans are well documented, the impacts on flora are less well understood, perhaps except for crops. We summarize recent findings related to heat wave impacts including: sublethal and lethal effects at leaf and plant scales, secondary ecosystem effects, and more complex impacts such as increased heat wave frequency across all seasons, and interactions with other disturbances. We propose generalizable practical trials to quantify the critical bounding conditions of vulnerability to heat waves. Collectively, plant vulnerabilities to heat waves appear to be underappreciated and understudied, particularly with respect to understanding heat wave driven plant die-off and ecosystem tipping points.

Urban Biodiversity and the Importance of Scale.

Many ecological and evolutionary processes are affected by urbanization, but cities vary by orders of magnitude in their human population size and areal extent. To quantify and manage urban biodiversity, one must understand both how biodiversity scales with city size, and how ecological, evolutionary, and socioeconomic drivers of biodiversity scale with city size. We show how environmental abiotic and biotic drivers, as well as human cultural and socioeconomic drivers, may act through ecological and evolutionary processes differently, at different scales, to influence patterns in urban biodiversity. Because relationships likely take linear and nonlinear forms, the need to describe the specific scaling relationships is highlighted, including deviations and potential inflection points, where different management strategies may successfully conserve urban biodiversity.

The commonness of rarity: Global and future distribution of rarity across land plants.

A key feature of life's diversity is that some species are common but many more are rare. Nonetheless, at global scales, we do not know what fraction of biodiversity consists of rare species. Here, we present the largest compilation of global plant diversity to quantify the fraction of Earth's plant biodiversity that are rare. A large fraction, ~36.5% of Earth's ~435,000 plant species, are exceedingly rare. Sampling biases and prominent models, such as neutral theory and the k-niche model, cannot account for the observed prevalence of rarity. Our results indicate that (i) climatically more stable regions have harbored rare species and hence a large fraction of Earth's plant species via reduced extinction risk but that (ii) climate change and human land use are now disproportionately impacting rare species. Estimates of global species abundance distributions have important implications for risk assessments and conservation planning in this era of rapid global change.

Extra-metabolic energy use and the rise in human hyper-density.

Humans, like all organisms, are subject to fundamental biophysical laws. Van Valen predicted that, because of zero-sum dynamics, all populations of all species in a given environment flux the same amount of energy on average. Damuth's 'energetic equivalence rule' supported Van Valen´s conjecture by showing a tradeoff between few big animals per area with high individual metabolic rates compared to abundant small species with low energy requirements. We use metabolic scaling theory to compare variation in densities and individual energy use in human societies to other land mammals. We show that hunter-gatherers occurred at densities lower than the average for a mammal of our size. Most modern humans, in contrast, concentrate in large cities at densities up to four orders of magnitude greater than hunter-gatherers, yet consume up to two orders of magnitude more energy per capita. Today, cities across the globe flux greater energy than net primary productivity on a per area basis. This is possible by importing enormous amounts of energy and materials required to sustain hyper-dense, modern humans. The metabolic rift with nature created by modern cities fueled largely by fossil energy poses formidable challenges for establishing a sustainable relationship on a rapidly urbanizing, yet finite planet.

Metabolic heat production and thermal conductance are mass-independent adaptations to thermal environment in birds and mammals.

The extent to which different kinds of organisms have adapted to environmental temperature regimes is central to understanding how they respond to climate change. The Scholander-Irving (S-I) model of heat transfer lays the foundation for explaining how endothermic birds and mammals maintain their high, relatively constant body temperatures in the face of wide variation in environmental temperature. The S-I model shows how body temperature is regulated by balancing the rates of heat production and heat loss. Both rates scale with body size, suggesting that larger animals should be better adapted to cold environments than smaller animals, and vice versa. However, the global distributions of ∼9,000 species of terrestrial birds and mammals show that the entire range of body sizes occurs in nearly all climatic regimes. Using physiological and environmental temperature data for 211 bird and 178 mammal species, we test for mass-independent adaptive changes in two key parameters of the S-I model: basal metabolic rate (BMR) and thermal conductance. We derive an axis of thermal adaptation that is independent of body size, extends the S-I model, and highlights interactions among physiological and morphological traits that allow endotherms to persist in a wide range of temperatures. Our macrophysiological and macroecological analyses support our predictions that shifts in BMR and thermal conductance confer important adaptations to environmental temperature in both birds and mammals.

Macroecology Meets Macroeconomics: Resource Scarcity and Global Sustainability.

The current economic paradigm, which is based on increasing human population, economic development, and standard of living, is no longer compatible with the biophysical limits of the finite Earth. Failure to recover from the economic crash of 2008 is not due just to inadequate fiscal and monetary policies. The continuing global crisis is also due to scarcity of critical resources. Our macroecological studies highlight the role in the economy of energy and natural resources: oil, gas, water, arable land, metals, rare earths, fertilizers, fisheries, and wood. As the modern industrial technological-informational economy expanded in recent decades, it grew by consuming the Earth's natural resources at unsustainable rates. Correlations between per capita GDP and per capita consumption of energy and other resources across nations and over time demonstrate how economic growth and development depend on "nature's capital". Decades-long trends of decreasing per capita consumption of multiple important commodities indicate that overexploitation has created an unsustainable bubble of population and economy.

The Malthusian-Darwinian dynamic and the trajectory of civilization.

Two interacting forces influence all populations: the Malthusian dynamic of exponential growth until resource limits are reached, and the Darwinian dynamic of innovation and adaptation to circumvent these limits through biological and/or cultural evolution. The specific manifestations of these forces in modern human society provide an important context for determining how humans can establish a sustainable relationship with the finite Earth.

Reproductive correlates of social network variation in plurally breeding degus (Octodon degus).

Studying the causes and reproductive consequences of social variation can provide insight into the evolutionary basis of sociality. Individuals are expected to behave adaptively to maximize reproductive success, but reproductive outcomes can also depend on group structure. Degus (Octodon degus) are plurally breeding rodents, in which females allonurse indiscriminately. However, communal rearing does not appear to enhance female reproductive success, and larger group sizes are correlated with decreasing per capita pup production. To further investigate mechanisms underlying these patterns, we asked how differences in sex, season and average group reproductive success are related to degu association networks. We hypothesized that if reproductive differences mirror social relationships, then females (core group members) should show stronger and more stable associations than males, and female association strength should be strongest during lactation. We also hypothesized that, at the group level, social cohesion would increase reproductive output, while social conflict would decrease it. Females did have higher association strength and more preferred partners than males, but only during lactation, when overall female associations increased. Females also had more stable preferred social partnerships between seasons. A measure of social cohesion (average association strength) was not related to per capita pup production of female group members, but potential social conflict (heterogeneity of association strengths) was negatively related to per capita pup production of female group members. Our results highlight temporal and multilevel patterns of social structure that may reflect reproductive costs and benefits to females.

The macroecology of sustainability.

The discipline of sustainability science has emerged in response to concerns of natural and social scientists, policymakers, and lay people about whether the Earth can continue to support human population growth and economic prosperity. Yet, sustainability science has developed largely independently from and with little reference to key ecological principles that govern life on Earth. A macroecological perspective highlights three principles that should be integral to sustainability science: 1) physical conservation laws govern the flows of energy and materials between human systems and the environment, 2) smaller systems are connected by these flows to larger systems in which they are embedded, and 3) global constraints ultimately limit flows at smaller scales. Over the past few decades, decreasing per capita rates of consumption of petroleum, phosphate, agricultural land, fresh water, fish, and wood indicate that the growing human population has surpassed the capacity of the Earth to supply enough of these essential resources to sustain even the current population and level of socioeconomic development.

Sociality, exotic ectoparasites, and fitness in the plural breeding rodent Octodon degus.

Social animals are susceptible to high infection levels by contact-transmitted parasites due to increased conspecific interaction. Exotic parasites are known to have adverse consequences on native hosts. We examined the relationship between social group size and exotic ectoparasite loads, and adult infection levels with per capita fitness and offspring survival in the plural breeding rodent Octodon degus in central Chile. Degus at our site were almost entirely infected by two exotic ectoparasites: the fleas Leptopsylla segnis and Xenopsylla cheopis. Neither group size nor number of females per group predicted the abundance of either exotic flea species. The per capita number of pups (per capita fitness) that emerged from burrow systems used by known social groups was negatively correlated with abundance of L. segnis but not X. cheopis. On adults, X. cheopis abundance was three times greater than L. segnis but was not significantly correlated with per capita fitness. In females, L. segnis abundance was negatively correlated with peak body mass during pregnancy. Adult ectoparasite load was not correlated with offspring survival. Based on these results, we hypothesize that high infection levels of L. segnis result in decreased reproductive fitness of adult female degus but are not a cost of sociality because parasite loads are not predicted by social group size. Further work is needed to experimentally test this hypothesis and to determine if L. segnis serves as a vector for a deleterious pathogen. Lastly, the lack of native ectoparasites may explain why a previous study at our site determined that behavioral adaptations needed to cope with high ectoparasite burdens (e.g., grooming) are not extensive in degus; they simply have not had the coevolutionary time needed for selection of these behaviors.