Unravelling the mechanisms driving multimorbidity in COPD to develop holistic approaches to patient-centred care.

COPD is a major cause of morbidity and mortality worldwide. Multimorbidity is common in COPD patients and a key modifiable factor, which requires timely identification and targeted holistic management strategies to improve outcomes and reduce the burden of disease.We discuss the use of integrative approaches, such as cluster analysis and network-based theory, to understand the common and novel pathobiological mechanisms underlying COPD and comorbid disease, which are likely to be key to informing new management strategies.Furthermore, we discuss the current understanding of mechanistic drivers to multimorbidity in COPD, including hypotheses such as multimorbidity as a result of shared common exposure to noxious stimuli (e.g. tobacco smoke), or as a consequence of loss of function following the development of pulmonary disease. In addition, we explore the links to pulmonary disease processes such as systemic overspill of pulmonary inflammation, immune cell priming within the inflamed COPD lung and targeted messengers such as extracellular vesicles as a result of local damage as a cause for multimorbidity in COPD.Finally, we focus on current and new management strategies which may target these underlying mechanisms, with the aim of holistic, patient-centred treatment rather than single disease management.

Risk factors for persistent abnormality on chest radiographs at 12-weeks post hospitalisation with PCR confirmed COVID-19.

BACKGROUND: The long-term consequences of COVID-19 remain unclear. There is concern a proportion of patients will progress to develop pulmonary fibrosis. We aimed to assess the temporal change in CXR infiltrates in a cohort of patients following hospitalisation for COVID-19. METHODS: We conducted a single-centre prospective cohort study of patients admitted to University Hospital Southampton with confirmed SARS-CoV2 infection between 20th March and 3rd June 2020. Patients were approached for standard-of-care follow-up 12-weeks after hospitalisation. Inpatient and follow-up CXRs were scored by the assessing clinician for extent of pulmonary infiltrates; 0-4 per lung (Nil = 0, < 25% = 1, 25-50% = 2, 51-75% = 3, > 75% = 4). RESULTS: 101 patients with paired CXRs were included. Demographics: 53% male with a median (IQR) age 53.0 (45-63) years and length of stay 9 (5-17.5) days. The median CXR follow-up interval was 82 (77-86) days with median baseline and follow-up CXR scores of 4.0 (3-5) and 0.0 (0-1) respectively. 32% of patients had persistent CXR abnormality at 12-weeks. In multivariate analysis length of stay (LOS), smoking-status and obesity were identified as independent risk factors for persistent CXR abnormality. Serum LDH was significantly higher at baseline and at follow-up in patients with CXR abnormalities compared to those with resolution. A 5-point composite risk score (1-point each; LOS ≥ 15 days, Level 2/3 admission, LDH > 750 U/L, obesity and smoking-status) strongly predicted risk of persistent radiograph abnormality (0.81). CONCLUSION: Persistent CXR abnormality 12-weeks post COVID-19 was common in this cohort. LOS, obesity, increased serum LDH, and smoking-status were risk factors for radiograph abnormality. These findings require further prospective validation.

Inflammatory phenotyping predicts clinical outcome in COVID-19.

BACKGROUND: The COVID-19 pandemic has led to more than 760,000 deaths worldwide (correct as of 16th August 2020). Studies suggest a hyperinflammatory response is a major cause of disease severity and death. Identitfying COVID-19 patients with hyperinflammation may identify subgroups who could benefit from targeted immunomodulatory treatments. Analysis of cytokine levels at the point of diagnosis of SARS-CoV-2 infection can identify patients at risk of deterioration. METHODS: We used a multiplex cytokine assay to measure serum IL-6, IL-8, TNF, IL-1ß, GM-CSF, IL-10, IL-33 and IFN-γ in 100 hospitalised patients with confirmed COVID-19 at admission to University Hospital Southampton (UK). Demographic, clinical and outcome data were collected for analysis. RESULTS: Age > 70 years was the strongest predictor of death (OR 28, 95% CI 5.94, 139.45). IL-6, IL-8, TNF, IL-1ß and IL-33 were significantly associated with adverse outcome. Clinical parameters were predictive of poor outcome (AUROC 0.71), addition of a combined cytokine panel significantly improved the predictability (AUROC 0.85). In those ≤70 years, IL-33 and TNF were predictive of poor outcome (AUROC 0.83 and 0.84), addition of a combined cytokine panel demonstrated greater predictability of poor outcome than clinical parameters alone (AUROC 0.92 vs 0.77). CONCLUSIONS: A combined cytokine panel improves the accuracy of the predictive value for adverse outcome beyond standard clinical data alone. Identification of specific cytokines may help to stratify patients towards trials of specific immunomodulatory treatments to improve outcomes in COVID-19.

Alterations in leukocyte transcriptional control pathway activity associated with major depressive disorder and antidepressant treatment.

Major depressive disorder (MDD) is associated with a significantly elevated risk of developing serious medical illnesses such as cardiovascular disease, immune impairments, infection, dementia and premature death. Previous work has demonstrated immune dysregulation in subjects with MDD. Using genome-wide transcriptional profiling and promoter-based bioinformatic strategies, we assessed leukocyte transcription factor (TF) activity in leukocytes from 20 unmedicated MDD subjects versus 20 age-, sex- and ethnicity-matched healthy controls, before initiation of antidepressant therapy, and in 17 of the MDD subjects after 8 weeks of sertraline treatment. In leukocytes from unmedicated MDD subjects, bioinformatic analysis of transcription control pathway activity indicated an increased transcriptional activity of cAMP response element-binding/activating TF (CREB/ATF) and increased activity of TFs associated with cellular responses to oxidative stress (nuclear factor erythroid-derived 2-like 2, NFE2l2 or NRF2). Eight weeks of antidepressant therapy was associated with significant reductions in Hamilton Depression Rating Scale scores and reduced activity of NRF2, but not in CREB/ATF activity. Several other transcriptional regulation pathways, including the glucocorticoid receptor (GR), nuclear factor kappa-B cells (NF-κB), early growth response proteins 1-4 (EGR1-4) and interferon-responsive TFs, showed either no significant differences as a function of disease or treatment, or activities that were opposite to those previously hypothesized to be involved in the etiology of MDD or effective treatment. Our results suggest that CREB/ATF and NRF2 signaling may contribute to MDD by activating immune cell transcriptome dynamics that ultimately influence central nervous system (CNS) motivational and affective processes via circulating mediators.

Restructuring of the Diabetes Day Centre: a pilot lean project in a tertiary referral centre in the West of Ireland.

INTRODUCTION: Diabetes is a chronic disease amenable to management in the community and outpatient setting. The increasing incidence of diabetes places outpatient endocrinology services under pressure to provide a quality service in a timely manner. Our aim was to apply lean thinking to the diabetes clinic in a tertiary referral centre in the West of Ireland to improve flow, as reflected in reduced patient journey times. METHODS: The project lasted 6 months, from January to June 2011. An introductory seminar on lean thinking was arranged to inform and motivate the Diabetes Day Centre staff. Two 'rapid improvement events' took place. Value stream mapping (VSM) was the predominant lean tool employed. Patient journeys were mapped and quantified (minutes) using timesheets allocated to each step in the process at baseline, and following intervention. Data were analysed using Minitab V.16.0. RESULTS: VSM allowed the value-adding and problem-causing steps in the patient journey through the diabetes clinic process to be identified and addressed. Total patient journey time through the clinic was significantly reduced from 118 (± 38.02) min to 58 (± 18.30) min (p<0.001). CONCLUSIONS: This project reflects the successful application of VSM as a lean tool in a pilot study at our institution as evidenced by improved patient flow and a significant reduction in patient journey time through the clinic. Through the incorporation of Lean into the ethos of the hospital, we have the potential to deliver excellent care in a safe environment and in an efficient manner, while benefiting the patient, employees and tax-payer.

Dysregulated relationship of inflammation and oxidative stress in major depression.

Chronic inflammation and oxidative stress have been implicated in the pathophysiology of Major Depressive Disorder (MDD), as well as in a number of chronic medical conditions. The aim of this study was to examine the relationship between peripheral inflammatory and oxidative stress markers in un-medicated subjects with MDD compared to non-depressed healthy controls and compared to subjects with MDD after antidepressant treatment. We examined the relationships between IL-6, IL-10, and the IL-6/IL-10 inflammatory ratio vs. F2-isoprostanes (F2-IsoP), a marker of oxidative stress, in un-medicated MDD patients (n=20) before and after 8 weeks of open-label sertraline treatment (n=17), compared to healthy non-depressed controls (n=20). Among the un-medicated MDD subjects, F2-IsoP concentrations were positively correlated with IL-6 concentrations (p<0.05) and were negatively correlated with IL-10 concentrations (p<0.01). Accordingly, F2-IsoP concentrations were positively correlated with the ratio of IL-6/IL-10 (p<0.01). In contrast, in the control group, there were no significant correlations between F2-IsoPs and either cytokine or their ratio. After MDD subjects were treated with sertraline for 8 weeks, F2-IsoPs were no longer significantly correlated with IL-6, IL-10 or the IL-6/IL-10 ratio. These data suggest oxidative stress and inflammatory processes are positively associated in untreated MDD. Our findings are consistent with the hypothesis that the homeostatic buffering mechanisms regulating oxidation and inflammation in healthy individuals become dysregulated in untreated MDD, and may be improved with antidepressant treatment. These findings may help explain the increased risk of comorbid medical illnesses in MDD.

Resting leukocyte telomerase activity is elevated in major depression and predicts treatment response.

Telomeres are DNA-protein complexes that cap linear DNA strands, protecting DNA from damage. When telomeres critically shorten, cells become susceptible to senescence and apoptosis. Telomerase, a cellular ribonucleoprotein enzyme, rebuilds the length of telomeres and promotes cellular viability. Leukocyte telomeres are reportedly shortened in major depression, but telomerase activity in depression has not been previously reported. Further, there are no published reports of the effects of antidepressants on telomerase activity or on the relationship between telomerase activity and antidepressant response. Peripheral blood mononuclear cell (PBMC) telomerase activity was assessed in 20 medication-free depressed individuals and 18 controls. In total, 16 of the depressed individuals were then treated with sertraline in an open-label manner for 8 weeks, and PBMC telomerase activity was reassessed in 15 of these individuals after treatment. Pre- and post-treatment symptom severity was rated with the Hamilton Depression Rating Scale. All analyses were corrected for age and sex. Pre-treatment telomerase activity was significantly elevated in the depressed individuals compared with the controls (P=0.007) and was directly correlated with depression ratings (P<0.05) across all subjects. In the depressed group, individuals with relatively lower pre-treatment telomerase activity and with relatively greater increase in telomerase activity during treatment, showed superior antidepressant responses (P<0.05 and P<0.005, respectively). This is the first report characterizing telomerase activity in depressed individuals. PBMC telomerase activity might reflect a novel aspect of depressive pathophysiology and might represent a novel biomarker of antidepressant responsiveness.

An assessment of cost, quality and outcomes for five HIV prevention youth peer education programs in Zambia.

Youth peer education (YPE) programs are a popular strategy for HIV prevention in sub-Saharan Africa. However, research on the effectiveness of YPE programs is scarce and the wide variation in programs makes it difficult to generalize research findings. Measuring quality and comparing program effectiveness require the use of standardized instruments. In this study, we used standardized evidenced-based instruments to compare program inputs, quality, outputs and outcomes for five YPE programs in Zambia. Clinic surveys were used to measure the following program outcomes: young people's exposure to the YPE programs and referrals of young people to clinics for HIV/sexually transmitted infection (STI) testing and other reproductive health services. The study revealed wide variation in the cost, quality and outcomes of YPE programs. Higher quality programs were associated with greater exposure and more referrals of youth to the clinics. However, one of the two highest quality programs achieved twice as many exposure and referral outcomes at about half the cost per peer educator of the more expensive program. Results indicate that the standardized instruments used in this study are useful for assessing and comparing program attributes among diverse YPE programs.

Dealing with lead in Broken Hill--trends in blood lead levels in young children 1991-2003.

The objective of the study was to investigate trends in blood lead concentrations in preschool children between 1991 and 2003, as part of the evaluation strategy of a public health lead management program in Broken Hill, Australia. Since 1991, all Broken Hill children aged 1-4 years have been offered at least annual blood lead screening as part of a community-wide lead management program. Recruitment of children was promoted throughout the period using local media and distribution of promotional material from health care centres and preschool, childcare, and educational facilities around the city. Venous blood samples were collected using standard procedures and analyses were subjected to internal and external quality control programs. Because the frequency distribution of blood lead levels are skewed, geometric rather than arithmetic means were used for comparative purposes. Trend analysis was based on age and sex standardised mean blood lead levels. The number of 1- to 4-year-old children screened ranged between 496 and 948 in any one year and response rates varied between 39% and 73%. The age-sex standardised mean blood lead level decreased from 16.3 microg/dL to 7.1 microg/dL between 1991 and 2003. Overall, blood lead levels declined by 56% over 13 years. These reductions were consistently observed irrespective of age or where a child lived in the town. The rate of decline has slowed since 1997. We conclude that substantial progress has been made in dealing with the lead problem in Broken Hill children, although the rate of decline of blood lead levels has slowed. Continued public health action is still needed to bring the proportion of young children with significantly elevated blood lead levels (>15 microg/dL) down from the 2003 figure of 12% to the NHMRC community-based target for lead in young Australians of 5%.

Outcome of hip fracture in older Irish women: a 2-year follow-up of subjects in a case-control study.

To assess outcome after hip fracture in older Irish women, 106 consecutive females aged over 50 years admitted to a general hospital with a hip fracture were compared to 89 age- and gender-matched controls from the same catchment area. Interview-based data were collected on socio-demographic factors, mobility and activities of daily living before recruitment and 2 years later. Information was also collected on residence, further falls and fractures and use of health and community support services during the 2-year period. Mortality at 2 years was higher in cases (23.6%) compared to controls (10.1%; P = 0.01). Cases were significantly less mobile and more dependent in the activities of daily living. Of the cases who were community dwellers at baseline, 26.6% were institutionalised at 2 years compared with 9.2% of controls (P = 0.01). During the 2 years cases were significantly more likely to have multiple falls and a further hip or pelvic fracture. Hospital and nursing home admissions and use of physiotherapy, day centre and home help services were also significantly greater among cases. The marked adverse impact of hip fracture reported in this study underlines the importance of public health strategies to prevent these injuries in older people.

Predictors of first hip fracture and mortality post fracture in older women.

BACKGROUND: Hip fracture causes significant morbidity and mortality in older women. AIM: To document factors contributing to the risk of hip fracture in older women and to assess the effect of hip fracture on subsequent mortality. METHODS: Case-control study of 89 women with hip fracture and 89 controls, with two-year follow-up. Singh index and bone mineral density were calculated. RESULTS: Osteoporotic indices did not differ significantly between cases and controls. Significant predictors of risk were sleeping tablets, perception of health as fair/poor and a lower mental status score. Patients were 3.57 times more likely to die in the first year after fracture, with no difference between the groups in year two. After adjustment, hip fracture did not remain significantly associated with mortality. Inability to walk 100 yards alone prior to fracture and lower social class were significantly associated with mortality at 12 months. Age alone was significantly associated at 12-24 months. CONCLUSIONS: Factors related to falls and fracture may be more discriminatory predictors of hip fracture risk than osteoporosis in older females. Medications for sleep should be prescribed with caution. Hip fracture may have an independent effect on one year mortality, this effect is not seen in the second year.

Prediction of individual patient outcome in cancer: comparison of artificial neural networks and Kaplan--Meier methods.

BACKGROUND: There is a great need for accurate treatment and outcome prediction in cancer. Two methods for prediction, artificial neural networks and Kaplan--Meier plots, have not, to the authors' knowledge, been compared previously. METHODS: This review compares the advantages and disadvantages of the use of artificial neural networks and Kaplan--Meier curves for treatment and outcome prediction in cancer. RESULTS: Artificial neural networks are useful for prediction of outcome for individual patients with cancer because they are as accurate as the best traditional statistical methods, are able to capture complex phenomena without a priori knowledge, and can be reduced to a simpler model if the phenomena are not complex. Kaplan--Meier plots are of limited accuracy for prediction because they require partitioning of variables, require cutting continuous variables into discrete pieces, and can only handle one or two variables effectively. CONCLUSIONS: Artificial neural networks are an efficient statistical method for outcome prediction in cancer that utilizes all available powerful prognostic factors and maximizes predictive accuracy. Use of Kaplan--Meier plots for predictions is discouraged because of serious technical limitations and low accuracy.

HbA1c predicts length of stay in patients admitted for coronary artery bypass surgery.

Diabetes mellitus is associated with coronary artery disease, and diabetic patients are frequently referred for coronary bypass graft surgery. It is well known that HbA1c, which reflects long-term glycemic control, is related to diabetic morbidity and mortality. It is not known whether HbA1c is related to postoperative length of stay among patients who undergo coronary artery bypass surgery. The authors evaluated 135 patients who underwent bypass surgery at the Westchester Medical Center (Valhalla, NY). HbA1c was measured in all patients preoperatively; a value of 7% or greater was used as a threshold for uncontrolled hyperglycemia. A postoperative length of stay of 6 days or more was used as the cutoff for an extended length of stay. Linear regression was used to assess the relationship between HbA1c, adjusted for age, and length of stay in days. Logistic regression, with length of stay a binary variable <6, > or =6 days, was used to assess the accuracy of HbA1c <7%, > or =7%, adjusted for age, in predicting length of stay. An HbA1c of 7% or greater was found to be a strong predictor of a length of stay of 6 days or longer. These data suggest that HbA1c can be used as a surrogate marker for cardiac and noncardiac morbidity that prolongs hospitalization after coronary artery bypass surgery.

A pilot study of donepezil for memory problems in epilepsy.

We performed a pilot 3-month, open-label study of 5-10 mg donepezil, an anticholinesterase inhibitor, as treatment for memory problems in people with epilepsy. The Buschke Selective Reminding Test was administered at baseline and after 3 months of donepezil. In 18 completing patients, the total number of words recalled across learning trials was greater on donepezil (P = 0.4). No change was noted in attention, visual sequencing, mental flexibility, psychomotor speed, or reported quality-of-life scores. Mean 3-month seizure frequency at baseline was 2.70 ± 4.60, and during treatment, 3.06 ± 4.52 (P = 0.19, not significant). Two patients experienced increased tonic-clonic seizures. Side effects included diarrhea, stomach cramps, insomnia, depression, and blurred vision. Cholinergic medication is worthy of investigation as treatment for memory problems in people with epilepsy, but attention must be paid to possible exacerbation of seizures.

Adherence to prescription medications among medical professionals.

BACKGROUND: We evaluated adherence to medication usage by health care professionals to estimate the expected upper limit of adherence among the general population. METHODS: In a self-administered survey, physicians and nurses were asked about their use of prescribed medications for acute and chronic illnesses. The settings were a teaching hospital, employee health service, medical college, and educational conferences. RESULTS: Among 435 respondents, 301 physicians and nurses had medications prescribed for acute and/or chronic illnesses within 2 years of the survey. Of 610 prescribed medications, > or =80% were taken as prescribed, with a 77% compliance rate for short-term medications and 84% for long-term medications. Older age was associated with better adherence, whereas a greater number of doses per day was associated with poorer adherence. CONCLUSIONS: Approximately 80% of respondents reported properly taking prescription medications > or =80% of the time. Given the nature of the study population, it is unlikely that a nonclinical trial population will consistently achieve better adherence without specific interventions.

Clinical and laboratory evaluation of all-trans retinoic acid modulation of chemotherapy in patients with acute myelogenous leukaemia.

All-trans retinoic acid (ATRA) is synergistic with chemotherapy in leukaemia cell lines. We treated 53 patients with newly diagnosed acute myelogenous leukaemia (AML) with high-dose cytarabine-based chemotherapy followed by ATRA. Peripheral blood and bone marrow samples were obtained to study the effect of in vitro exposure to ATRA and to measure apoptosis and bcl-2. The response rate was 72% for patients under age 60 years and 46% for patients aged 60 years or above. There was no difference in the percentage of responding patients, time to recurrence or overall survival for patients receiving chemotherapy with ATRA vs. historical controls receiving chemotherapy without ATRA. After in vitro exposure of day 3 bone marrow samples to ATRA, there was an increase in apoptotic cells in 25% of patient samples compared with samples not exposed to ATRA. Later date of peak apoptosis in peripheral blood and higher percentage of apoptotic cells in bone marrow on day 3 of treatment were associated with lack of clinical response to treatment. Increased bcl-2 in patient samples was associated with shorter time to recurrence and poor cytogenetic risk. The addition of ATRA to chemotherapy did not improve patient outcome. However, evidence of in vitro response to ATRA in 25% of patients suggests that retinoid pathways should be studied further in patients with AML.

Discovering patterns in microarray data.

The human genome is a complex system characterized by gene interactions and nonlinear behaviors. Complex systems cannot be viewed as the aggregate of their isolated pieces but must be studied as an integrated whole. Microarray technologies offer the opportunity to see the entire biological system as it existed at one moment in time. It is tempting to try to analyze the entire microarray at once to immediately discover the pattern being sought, for example, the pattern of a breast cancer. However, such an analysis would be a mistake because microarrays provide massively parallel information, the analysis of which is a nondeterministic polynomial time (NP)-hard problem. Current statistical methods are not sufficiently powerful to solve this NP-hard problem. The best approach to microarray analysis is to begin with a small number of the elements in the microarray known to be a pattern and ask questions of the other elements in the microarray; i.e., perform instantaneous scientific experiments regarding whether each of the other elements in the microarray are related to the known pattern.

Artificial neural networks applied to survival prediction in breast cancer.

In this study, we evaluated the accuracy of a neural network in predicting 5-, 10- and 15-year breast-cancer-specific survival. A series of 951 breast cancer patients was divided into a training set of 651 and a validation set of 300 patients. Eight variables were entered as input to the network: tumor size, axillary nodal status, histological type, mitotic count, nuclear pleomorphism, tubule formation, tumor necrosis and age. The area under the ROC curve (AUC) was used as a measure of accuracy of the prediction models in generating survival estimates for the patients in the independent validation set. The AUC values of the neural network models for 5-, 10- and 15-year breast-cancer-specific survival were 0.909, 0.886 and 0.883, respectively. The corresponding AUC values for logistic regression were 0.897, 0.862 and 0.858. Axillary lymph node status (N0 vs. N+) predicted 5-year survival with a specificity of 71% and a sensitivity of 77%. The sensitivity of the neural network model was 91% at this specificity level. The rate of false predictions at 5 years was 82/300 for nodal status and 40/300 for the neural network. When nodal status was excluded from the neural network model, the rate of false predictions increased only to 49/300 (AUC 0. 877). An artificial neural network is very accurate in the 5-, 10- and 15-year breast-cancer-specific survival prediction. The consistently high accuracy over time and the good predictive performance of a network trained without information on nodal status demonstrate that neural networks can be important tools for cancer survival prediction.