Childhood Non-HDL Cholesterol and LDL Cholesterol and Adult Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Events.

BACKGROUND: Although low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) remains the primary cholesterol target in clinical practice in children and adults, non-high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (non-HDL-C) has been suggested as a more accurate measure of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) risk. We examined the associations of childhood non-HDL-C and LDL-C levels with adult ASCVD events and determined whether non-HDL-C has better utility than LDL-C in predicting adult ASCVD events. METHODS: This prospective cohort study included 21 126 participants from the i3C Consortium (International Childhood Cardiovascular Cohorts). Proportional hazards regressions were used to estimate the risk for incident fatal and fatal/nonfatal ASCVD events associated with childhood non-HDL-C and LDL-C levels (age- and sex-specific z scores; concordant/discordant categories defined by guideline-recommended cutoffs), adjusted for sex, Black race, cohort, age at and calendar year of child measurement, body mass index, and systolic blood pressure. Predictive utility was determined by the C index. RESULTS: After an average follow-up of 35 years, 153 fatal ASCVD events occurred in 21 126 participants (mean age at childhood visits, 11.9 years), and 352 fatal/nonfatal ASCVD events occurred in a subset of 11 296 participants who could be evaluated for this outcome. Childhood non-HDL-C and LDL-C levels were each associated with higher risk of fatal and fatal/nonfatal ASCVD events (hazard ratio ranged from 1.27 [95% CI, 1.14-1.41] to 1.35 [95% CI, 1.13-1.60] per unit increase in the risk factor z score). Non-HDL-C had better discriminative utility than LDL-C (difference in C index, 0.0054 [95% CI, 0.0006-0.0102] and 0.0038 [95% CI, 0.0008-0.0068] for fatal and fatal/nonfatal events, respectively). The discordant group with elevated non-HDL-C and normal LDL-C had a higher risk of ASCVD events compared with the concordant group with normal non-HDL-C and LDL-C (fatal events: hazard ratio, 1.90 [95% CI, 0.98-3.70]; fatal/nonfatal events: hazard ratio, 1.94 [95% CI, 1.23-3.06]). CONCLUSIONS: Childhood non-HDL-C and LDL-C levels are associated with ASCVD events in midlife. Non-HDL-C is better than LDL-C in predicting adult ASCVD events, particularly among individuals who had normal LDL-C but elevated non-HDL-C. These findings suggest that both non-HDL-C and LDL-C are useful in identifying children at higher risk of ASCVD events, but non-HDL-C may provide added prognostic information when it is discordantly higher than the corresponding LDL-C and has the practical advantage of being determined without a fasting sample.

Lipoprotein(a) in Youth and Prediction of Major Cardiovascular Outcomes in Adulthood.

BACKGROUND: Elevated lipoprotein(a) [Lp(a)] is a common risk factor for cardiovascular disease outcomes with unknown mechanisms. We examined its potential role in identifying youths who are at increased risk of developing adult atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD). METHODS: Lp(a) levels measured in youth 9 to 24 years of age were linked to adult ASCVD and carotid intima-media thickness in the YFS (Cardiovascular Risk in Young Finns Study), in which 95 of the original 3596 participants (2.7%) recruited as children have been diagnosed with ASCVD at a median of 47 years of age. Results observed in YFS were replicated with the use of data for White participants from the BHS (Bogalusa Heart Study). In BHS, 587 White individuals had data on youth Lp(a) (measured at 8-17 years of age) and information on adult events, including 15 cases and 572 noncases. Analyses were performed with the use of Cox proportional hazard regression. RESULTS: In YFS, those who had been exposed to high Lp(a) level in youth [defined as Lp(a) ≥30 mg/dL] had ≈2 times greater risk of developing adult ASCVD compared with nonexposed individuals (hazard ratio, 2.0 [95% CI, 1.4-2.6]). Youth risk factors, including Lp(a), low-density lipoprotein cholesterol, body mass index, and smoking, were all independently associated with higher risk. In BHS, in an age- and sex-adjusted model, White individuals who had been exposed to high Lp(a) had 2.5 times greater risk (95% CI, 0.9-6.8) of developing adult ASCVD compared with nonexposed individuals. When also adjusted for low-density lipoprotein cholesterol and body mass index, the risk associated with high Lp(a) remained unchanged (hazard ratio, 2.4 [95% CI, 0.8-7.3]). In a multivariable model for pooled data, individuals exposed to high Lp(a) had 2.0 times greater risk (95% CI, 1.0-3.7) of developing adult ASCVD compared with nonexposed individuals. No association was detected between youth Lp(a) and adult carotid artery thickness in either cohort or pooled data. CONCLUSIONS: Elevated Lp(a) level identified in youth is a risk factor for adult atherosclerotic cardiovascular outcomes but not for increased carotid intima-media thickness.

Body-mass index trajectories from childhood to mid-adulthood and their sociodemographic predictors: Evidence from the International Childhood Cardiovascular Cohort (i3C) Consortium.

Background: Understanding lifecourse trajectories of body-mass index (BMI) is important for identifying groups at high risk of poor health and potential target points for intervention. This study aimed to describe BMI trajectories from childhood to mid-adulthood in four population-based cohorts established in the 1970s and 1980s and to identify childhood sociodemographic factors related to trajectory membership. Methods: Between Dec 17, 1970 and Dec 15, 1994, data were collected at the first visit from 9830 participants from the International Childhood Cardiovascular Cohort (i3C) Consortium, which includes participants from Australia (1985), Finland (1980) and the USA (1970-1994). Participants had at least three measures of height and weight, including one in childhood (6-18 years) and one in adulthood (>18 years), and were aged 30-49 years at last measurement. Latent Class Growth Mixture Modelling was used to identify lifecourse BMI trajectory groups and log multinomial regression models were fit to identify their childhood sociodemographic predictors. Findings: Five consistent BMI trajectory groups were identified amongst the four cohorts: persistently low (35.9-58.6%), improving from high (0.7-4.8%), progressing to moderate (9.3-43.7%), progressing to high (1.1-6.0%), and progressing to very high (0.7-1.3%). An additional three BMI trajectory groups were identified in some, but not all, cohorts: adult onset high (three cohorts; 1.8-20.7%), progressing to moderate-high (two cohorts; 5.2-13.8%), and relapsing yo-yoers (alternating upward and downward; one cohort; 1.3%). In pooled analyses, each predictor variable in childhood, including age, gender, parental education and race, was associated with increased likelihood of belonging to the most (e.g., improving from high) and least (e.g., progressing to very high) favourable BMI trajectory groups, suggesting a U-shaped (or inverse U-shaped) pattern of association. Interpretation: Five consistent BMI trajectory groups were identified across four cohorts from Australia, Finland, and the USA, mainly across two eras of birth. While most participants remained on a persistently low trajectory (50%), many demonstrated worsening BMI trajectories (47%), with only few demonstrating improving trajectories (<5%). Age, gender, parental education, and race appear to be important predictors of BMI trajectory group membership and need consideration in preventive and management strategies. Funding: This study was supported by funding from the National Institutes of Health, National Heart, Lung and Blood Institute (grant number R01 HL121230).

Childhood Cardiovascular Risk Factors and Adult Cardiovascular Events.

BACKGROUND: Childhood cardiovascular risk factors predict subclinical adult cardiovascular disease, but links to clinical events are unclear. METHODS: In a prospective cohort study involving participants in the International Childhood Cardiovascular Cohort (i3C) Consortium, we evaluated whether childhood risk factors (at the ages of 3 to 19 years) were associated with cardiovascular events in adulthood after a mean follow-up of 35 years. Body-mass index, systolic blood pressure, total cholesterol level, triglyceride level, and youth smoking were analyzed with the use of i3C-derived age- and sex-specific z scores and with a combined-risk z score that was calculated as the unweighted mean of the five risk z scores. An algebraically comparable adult combined-risk z score (before any cardiovascular event) was analyzed jointly with the childhood risk factors. Study outcomes were fatal cardiovascular events and fatal or nonfatal cardiovascular events, and analyses were performed after multiple imputation with the use of proportional-hazards regression. RESULTS: In the analysis of 319 fatal cardiovascular events that occurred among 38,589 participants (49.7% male and 15.0% Black; mean [±SD] age at childhood visits, 11.8±3.1 years), the hazard ratios for a fatal cardiovascular event in adulthood ranged from 1.30 (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.14 to 1.47) per unit increase in the z score for total cholesterol level to 1.61 (95% CI, 1.21 to 2.13) for youth smoking (yes vs. no). The hazard ratio for a fatal cardiovascular event with respect to the combined-risk z score was 2.71 (95% CI, 2.23 to 3.29) per unit increase. The hazard ratios and their 95% confidence intervals in the analyses of fatal cardiovascular events were similar to those in the analyses of 779 fatal or nonfatal cardiovascular events that occurred among 20,656 participants who could be evaluated for this outcome. In the analysis of 115 fatal cardiovascular events that occurred in a subgroup of 13,401 participants (31.0±5.6 years of age at the adult measurement) who had data on adult risk factors, the adjusted hazard ratio with respect to the childhood combined-risk z score was 3.54 (95% CI, 2.57 to 4.87) per unit increase, and the mutually adjusted hazard ratio with respect to the change in the combined-risk z score from childhood to adulthood was 2.88 (95% CI, 2.06 to 4.05) per unit increase. The results were similar in the analysis of 524 fatal or nonfatal cardiovascular events. CONCLUSIONS: In this prospective cohort study, childhood risk factors and the change in the combined-risk z score between childhood and adulthood were associated with cardiovascular events in midlife. (Funded by the National Institutes of Health.).

Prevalence Implications of the 2017 American Academy of Pediatrics Hypertension Guideline and Associations with Adult Hypertension.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the impact of the 2017 American Academy of Pediatrics hypertension Clinical Practice Guideline (CPG), compared with the previous guideline ("Fourth Report"), on the frequency of hypertensive blood pressure (BP) measurements in childhood and associations with hypertension in adulthood using data from the International Childhood Cardiovascular Cohort Consortium. STUDY DESIGN: Childhood BPs were categorized in normal, prehypertensive/elevated, and hypertensive (stage 1 and 2) ranges using the Fourth Report and the CPG. Participants were contacted in adulthood to assess self-reported hypertension. The associations between childhood hypertensive range BPs and self-reported adult hypertension were evaluated. RESULTS: Data were available for 34 014 youth (10.4 ± 3.1 years, 50.6% female) with 92 751 BP assessments. Compared with the Fourth Report, the CPG increased hypertensive readings from 7.6% to 13.5% and from 1.3% to 2.5% for stage 1 and 2 hypertensive range, respectively (P < .0001). Of 12 761 adults (48.8 ± 7.9 years, 43% male), 3839 (30.1%) had self-reported hypertension. The sensitivity for predicting adult hypertension among those with hypertensive range BPs at any point in childhood, as defined by the Fourth Report and the CPG, respectively, was 13.4% and 22.4% (specificity 92.3% and 85.9%, P < .001), with no significant impact on positive and negative predictive values. Associations with self-reported adult hypertension were similar and weak (c-statistic range 0.61-0.68) for hypertensive range BPs as defined by the Fourth Report and CPG. CONCLUSIONS: The CPG significantly increased the prevalence of childhood BPs in hypertensive ranges and improved the sensitivity, without an overall strengthened association, of predicting self-reported adult hypertension.

Obesity during childhood is associated with higher cancer mortality rate during adulthood: the i3C Consortium.

BACKGROUND: In high-income countries, cancer is the leading cause of death among middle-aged adults. Prospective data on the effects of childhood risk exposures on subsequent cancer mortality are scarce. METHODS: We examined whether childhood body mass index (BMI), blood pressure, glucose and lipid levels were associated with adult cancer mortality, using data from 21,012 children enrolled aged 3-19 years in seven prospective cohort studies from the U.S., Australia, and Finland that have followed participants from childhood into adulthood. Cancer mortality (cancer as a primary or secondary cause of death) was captured using registries. RESULTS: 354 cancer deaths occurred over the follow-up. In age-, sex, and cohort-adjusted analyses, childhood BMI (Hazard ratio [HR], 1.13; 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.03-1.24 per 1-SD increase) and childhood glucose (HR 1.22; 95%CI 1.01-1.47 per 1-SD increase), were associated with subsequent cancer mortality. In a multivariable analysis adjusted for age, sex, cohort, and childhood measures of fasting glucose, total cholesterol, triglycerides, and systolic blood pressure, childhood BMI remained as an independent predictor of subsequent cancer mortality (HR, 1.24; 95%CI, 1.03-1.49). The association of childhood BMI and subsequent cancer mortality persisted after adjustment for adulthood BMI (HR for childhood BMI, 1.35; 95%CI 1.12-1.63). CONCLUSIONS: Higher childhood BMI was independently associated with increased overall cancer mortality.

Cardiovascular risk factors before and during pregnancy: Does pregnancy unmask or initiate risk?

OBJECTIVES: To understand if pregnancy unmasks previously silent cardiovascular (CV) adverse factors, or initiates lasting injury. METHODS: Pre-pregnancy and during pregnancy CV risk factors (blood pressure, fasting lipids, and glucose) from 296 women belonging to studies in the International Childhood Cardiovascular Cohort (i3C) Consortium, a group of studies assessing the relationship between child and adolescent CV risk factors and adult outcomes, were used. Correlation coefficients between the pre- and during pregnancy measures were calculated, and the mean difference between the measures was modeled with adjustment for age, body mass index, race, smoking, and study. RESULTS: Measures were strongly correlated at pre- and during-pregnancy visits (p < 0.01), with r of between 0.30 and 0.55. In most cases, the difference between pre-pregnancy and during-pregnancy did not differ significantly from 0 after adjustment for confounders. Stratification by gestational age indicated stronger correlations with measurements obtained during the first and second trimesters than the third. The correlation did not differ by the time elapsed between the pre-pregnancy and pregnancy visits. CONCLUSIONS: Pre- and during-pregnancy CV risk factors are moderately well correlated. This may indicate that susceptible women enter pregnancy with higher risk rather than pregnancy inducing new vascular or metabolic effects.

Effects of fluoride intake on cortical and trabecular bone microstructure at early adulthood using multi-row detector computed tomography (MDCT).

PURPOSE: The aim of this study was to examine the effects of period-specific and cumulative fluoride (F) intake on bone at the levels of cortical and trabecular bone microstructural outcomes at early adulthood using emerging multi-row detector computed tomography (MDCT)-based novel techniques. METHODS: Ultra-high resolution MDCT distal tibia scans were collected at age 19 visits under the Iowa Bone Development Study (IBDS), and cortical and trabecular bone microstructural outcomes were computed at the distal tibia using previously validated methods. CT scans of a tissue characterization phantom were used to calibrate CT numbers (Hounsfield units) into bone mineral density (mg/cc). Period-specific and cumulative F intakes from birth up to the age of 19 years were assessed for IBDS participants through questionnaire, and their relationships with MDCT-derived bone microstructural outcomes were examined using bivariable and multivariable analyses, adjusting for height, weight, maturity offset (years since age of peak height velocity (PHV)), physical activity (questionnaire for adolescents (PAQ-A)), healthy eating index version 2010 (HEI-2010) scores, and calcium and protein intakes. RESULTS: MDCT distal tibia scans were acquired for 324 participants from among the total of 329 participants at age 19 visits. No motion artifacts were observed in any MDCT scans, and all images were successfully processed to measure cortical and trabecular bone microstructural outcomes. At early adulthood, males were observed to have stronger trabecular bone microstructural features, as well as thicker cortical bone (p < 0.01), as compared to age-similar females; however, females were found to have less cortical bone porosity as compared to males. Among participants with available F intake estimates (75 to 91% of the 324 with MDCT scans, depending on the period-specific F intake measure), no statistically significant associations were detected between any period-specific or cumulative F intake and bone microstructural outcomes of the tibia at the p < 0.01 level. Only for females, statistically suggestive associations (p < 0.05) were found between recent F intake (from 14 to 19 years) and trabecular mean plate width and trabecular thickness at the tibia. Those associations became somewhat weaker, but still statistically suggestive, for trabecular thickness in fully adjusted analysis with height, weight, PHV, calcium and protein intake, and HEI-2010 and PAQ-A scores as covariates. CONCLUSION: The findings show that the effects of lifelong or period-specific F intake from combined sources for adolescents typical to the United States Midwest region are not strongly associated with bone microstructural outcomes at age 19 years. These findings are generally consistent with previously reported results of IBDS analyses, which further confirms that effects of lifelong or period-specific F intake on skeletons in early adulthood are absent or weak, even at the levels of cortical and trabecular bone microstructural details.

Genome-Wide Association Analysis of Longitudinal Bone Mineral Content Data From the Iowa Bone Development Study.

The foundation for osteoporosis risk is, in part, established during childhood, adolescence, and young adulthood, all periods of development when bone mass is acquired rapidly. The relative quantity of bone mass accrued is influenced by both lifestyle and genetic factors, although the genetic component is not yet well understood. The purpose of this study was to use a genome-wide association (GWA) analysis to discover single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) associated with: (1) the sex-specific hip bone mineral content at approximately the age of 19 when the amount of bone accrued is near its peak; and (2) the sex-specific rate of hip bone mineral content accrual during the adolescent growth spurt. The Iowa Bone Development Study, a longitudinal cohort study exploring bone health in children, adolescents, and young adults was the source of data. From this cohort, n = 364 (190 females, 174 males) participants were included in GWA analyses to address (1) and n = 258 participants (125 females and 133 males) were included in GWA analyses to address (2). Twenty SNPS were detected having p < 1.0 × 10-5. Of most biologic relevance were 2 suggestive SNPs (rs2051756 and rs2866908) detected in an intron of the DKK2 gene through the GWA analysis that explored peak bone mass in females.

Challenges and Opportunities for the Prevention and Treatment of Cardiovascular Disease Among Young Adults: Report From a National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute Working Group.

Improvements in cardiovascular disease (CVD) rates among young adults in the past 2 decades have been offset by increasing racial/ethnic and gender disparities, persistence of unhealthy lifestyle habits, overweight and obesity, and other CVD risk factors. To enhance the promotion of cardiovascular health among young adults 18 to 39 years old, the medical and broader public health community must understand the biological, interpersonal, and behavioral features of this life stage. Therefore, the National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute, with support from the Office of Behavioral and Social Science Research, convened a 2-day workshop in Bethesda, Maryland, in September 2017 to identify research challenges and opportunities related to the cardiovascular health of young adults. The current generation of young adults live in an environment undergoing substantial economic, social, and technological transformations, differentiating them from prior research cohorts of young adults. Although the accumulation of clinical and behavioral risk factors for CVD begins early in life, and research suggests early risk is an important determinant of future events, few trials have studied prevention and treatment of CVD in participants <40 years old. Building an evidence base for CVD prevention in this population will require the engagement of young adults, who are often disconnected from the healthcare system and may not prioritize long-term health. These changes demand a repositioning of existing evidence-based treatments to accommodate new sociotechnical contexts. In this article, the authors review the recent literature and current research opportunities to advance the cardiovascular health of today's young adults.

Childhood BMI and Fasting Glucose and Insulin Predict Adult Type 2 Diabetes: The International Childhood Cardiovascular Cohort (i3C) Consortium.

OBJECTIVE: To examine childhood BMI, fasting glucose, and insulin in relation to incident adult type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: We used data from the International Childhood Cardiovascular Cohort (i3C) Consortium. Data included childhood (age 3-19 years) measurements obtained during the 1970s-1990s; a health questionnaire, including self-report of adult T2DM (occurrence age, medication use) obtained at mean age 40 years; and a medical diagnosis registry (Finland). RESULTS: The sample included 6,738 participants. Of these, 436 (6.5%) reported onset of T2DM between ages 20 and 59 (mean 40.8) years, and 86% of them reported use of a confirmed antidiabetic medication. BMI and glucose (age and sex standardized) were associated with incident T2DM after adjustment for cohort, country, sex, race, age, and calendar year of measurement. Increasing levels of childhood BMI and glucose were related to an incrementally increased risk of T2DM beginning at age 30 years, beginning at cut points <95th percentile for BMI and <100 mg/dL for glucose. Insulin was positively associated with adult T2DM after adjustment for BMI and glucose and added to T2DM discrimination. CONCLUSIONS: Childhood BMI and glucose are predictors of adult T2DM at levels previously considered to be within the normal range. These easy-to-apply measurements are appealing from a clinical perspective. Fasting insulin has the potential to be an additional predictor.

Childhood/Adolescent Smoking and Adult Smoking and Cessation: The International Childhood Cardiovascular Cohort (i3C) Consortium.

Background Despite declining US adolescent smoking prevalence from 40% among 12th graders in 1995 to around 10% in 2018, adolescent smoking is still a significant problem. Using the International Childhood Cardiovascular Cohort (i3C) Consortium, which includes 7 international cohorts recruited in childhood and followed into adulthood, the present study was designed to confirm the important relation between adolescent smoking and daily adult smoking and present new data on adult smoking into the forties and comparison of smoking in the United States, Finland, and Australia. Methods and Results Childhood smoking experience during ages 6 to 19 in the 1970s and 1980s was classifiable in 6687 i3C participants who also provided smoking status in their twenties and forties through 2011-2018. Prevalence of daily smoking in their twenties was directly related to degree of smoking during adolescence and inversely related to the age at which that smoking experience occurred (P trend, <0.001). Similar patterns were observed for prediction of smoking during age forties. Among the 2465 smokers in their twenties, cessation by their forties was generally inverse to degree of smoking in ages 6 to 19 (P trend, <0.001). Prevalence of smoking during adolescence and adulthood was similar among US, Finnish, and Australian participants. Conclusions These long-term follow-up data show that smoking intensity increased throughout adolescence. Prevalence of adult smoking and cessation by the forties were both correlated with levels of childhood smoking intensity. These data lend support to preventive strategies designed to reduce, delay, or eliminate any youth access to cigarettes.

Non-HDL Cholesterol Levels in Childhood and Carotid Intima-Media Thickness in Adulthood.

BACKGROUND: Elevated non-high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C) levels are used to identify children at increased cardiovascular risk, but the use of non-HDL-C in childhood to predict atherosclerosis is unclear. We examined whether the National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute classification of youth non-HDL-C status predicts high common carotid artery intima-media thickness in adulthood. METHODS: We analyzed data from 4 prospective cohorts among 4582 children aged 3 to 19 years who were remeasured as adults (mean follow-up of 26 years). Non-HDL-C status in youth and adulthood was classified according to cut points of the National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute and the National Cholesterol Education Program Adult Treatment Panel III. High carotid intima-media thickness (cIMT) in adulthood was defined as at or above the study visit-, age-, sex-, race-, and cohort-specific 90th percentile of intima-media thickness. RESULTS: In a log-binomial regression analysis adjusted with age at baseline, sex, cohort, length of follow-up, baseline BMI, and systolic blood pressure, children with dyslipidemic non-HDL-C were at increased risk of high cIMT in adulthood (relative risk [RR], 1.29; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.07-1.55). Compared with the persistent normal group, the persistent dyslipidemia group (RR, 1.80; 95% CI, 1.37-2.37) and incident dyslipidemia (normal to dyslipidemia) groups (RR, 1.45; 95% CI, 1.07-1.96) had increased risk of high cIMT in adulthood, but the risk was attenuated for the resolution (dyslipidemia to normal) group (RR, 1.17; 95% CI, 0.97-1.41). CONCLUSIONS: Dyslipidemic non-HDL-C levels predict youth at risk for developing high cIMT in adulthood. Those who resolve their non-HDL-C dyslipidemia by adulthood have normalized risk of developing high cIMT in adulthood.

Prediction of adult class II/III obesity from childhood BMI: the i3C consortium.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: Adult class II/III obesity (BMI ≥ 35 kg/m2) has significant adverse health outcomes. Early prevention and treatment are critical, but prospective childhood risk estimates are lacking. This study aimed to define the prospective risk of adult class II/III obesity, using childhood BMI. METHODS: Children ages 3-19 years enrolled in cohorts of the International Childhood Cardiovascular Cohort (i3C) consortium with measured BMI assessments in childhood and adulthood were included. Prospective risk of adult class II/III obesity was modeled based on childhood age, sex, race, and BMI. RESULTS: A total of 12,142 individuals (44% male, 85% white) were assessed at median age 14 [Interquartile range, IQR: 11, 16] and 33 [28, 39] years. Class II/III adult obesity developed in 6% of children with normal weight; 29% of children with overweight; 56% of children with obesity; and 80% of children with severe obesity. However, 38% of the 1440 adults with class II/III obesity (553/1440) were normal weight as children. Prospective risk of adult class II/III obesity varied by age, sex, and race within childhood weight status classifications, and is notably higher for girls, black participants, and those in the United States. The risk of class II/III obesity increased with older adult age. CONCLUSIONS: Children with obesity or severe obesity have a substantial risk of adult class II/III obesity, and observed prospective risk estimates are now presented by age, sex, race, and childhood BMI. Clinical monitoring of children's BMI for adult class II/III obesity risk may be especially important for females and black Americans.

Long-Term Burden of Increased Body Mass Index from Childhood on Adult Dyslipidemia: The i3C Consortium Study.

Background: Data are limited regarding the association of cumulative burden and trajectory of body mass index (BMI) from early life with adult lipid disorders. Methods: The study cohort consisted of 5195 adults who had BMI repeatedly measured 4 to 21 times from childhood and had blood lipid measurements of low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C), high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C), and triglycerides (TG) and information on lipid-lowering medications in the last adult survey. The area under the curve (AUC) was calculated as a measure of long-term burden (total AUC) and trends (incremental AUC) of BMI. Results: Participants with dyslipidemia, high LDL-C, low HDL-C and high TG had consistently and significantly higher BMI levels from childhood to adulthood compared to those with normal lipid levels. After adjusting for age, race, sex, and cohort, increased risk of adult dyslipidemia was significantly associated with higher values of childhood BMI, adulthood BMI, total AUC and incremental AUC, with odds ratio (95% confidence interval) = 1.22 (1.15-1.29), 1.85 (1.74-1.97), 1.61 (1.52-1.71), and 1.59 (1.50-1.69), respectively, and p < 0.001 for all. The association patterns were similar in most race-sex subgroups. Conclusions: Adults with dyslipidemia versus normal lipid levels have consistently higher levels and distinct life-course trajectories of BMI, suggesting that the impact of excessive body weight on dyslipidemia originates in early life.

Predicting overweight and obesity in young adulthood from childhood body-mass index: comparison of cutoffs derived from longitudinal and cross-sectional data.

BACKGROUND: Historically, cutoff points for childhood and adolescent overweight and obesity have been based on population-specific percentiles derived from cross-sectional data. To obtain cutoff points that might better predict overweight and obesity in young adulthood, we examined the association between childhood body-mass index (BMI) and young adulthood BMI status in a longitudinal cohort. METHODS: In this study, we used data from the International Childhood Cardiovascular Cohort (i3C) Consortium (which included seven childhood cohorts from the USA, Australia, and Finland) to establish childhood overweight and obesity cutoff points that best predict BMI status at the age of 18 years. We included 3779 children who were followed up from 1970 onwards, and had at least one childhood BMI measurement between ages 6 years and 17 years and a BMI measurement specifically at age 18 years. We used logistic regression to assess the association between BMI in childhood and young adulthood obesity. We used the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) to assess the ability of fitted models to discriminate between different BMI status groups in young adulthood. The cutoff points were then compared with those defined by the International Obesity Task Force (IOTF), which used cross-sectional data, and tested for sensitivity and specificity in a separate, independent, longitudinal sample (from the Special Turku Coronary Risk Factor Intervention Project [STRIP] study) with BMI measurements available from both childhood and adulthood. FINDINGS: The cutoff points derived from the longitudinal i3C Consortium data were lower than the IOTF cutoff points. Consequently, a larger proportion of participants in the STRIP study was classified as overweight or obese when using the i3C cutoff points than when using the IOTF cutoff points. Especially for obesity, i3C cutoff points were significantly better at identifying those who would become obese later in life. In the independent sample, the AUROC values for overweight ranged from 0·75 (95% CI 0·70-0·80) to 0·88 (0·84-0·93) for the i3C cutoff points, and the corresponding values for the IOTF cutoff points ranged from 0·69 (0·62-0·75) to 0·87 (0·82-0·92). For obesity, the AUROC values ranged from 0·84 (0·75-0·93) to 0·90 (0·82-0·98) for the i3C cutoff points and 0·57 (0·49-0·66) to 0·76 (0·65-0·88) for IOTF cutoff points. INTERPRETATION: The childhood BMI cutoff points obtained from the i3C Consortium longitudinal data can better predict risk of overweight and obesity in young adulthood than can standards that are currently used based on cross-sectional data. Such cutoff points should help to more accurately identify children at risk of adult overweight or obesity. FUNDING: None.

Relation of Blood Pressure in Childhood to Self-Reported Hypertension in Adulthood.

Blood pressure (BP) tracking (maintaining a BP percentile) across life is not well defined but is important in predicting which children will become hypertensive adults. We computed BP tracking in subjects with BP measured in childhood and adulthood and performed logistic regression to determine the ability of childhood BP to predict adult hypertension (N=5035, 46.7 years, 74.2% white, 17.7% black; 39.6% male). Prevalence of hypertension was 29%. Correlations between systolic BP for child and adolescent were r=0.48; for adolescent and young adult were r=0.40, and for child and young adult were r=0.24 (all P<0.0001). Participants self-reporting adult hypertension were less likely to be white (38.7% black, 27.6% white, 20.9% other; P<0.0001) and female (26.4% females, 32.9% male, P<0.0001). Participants with adult hypertension were more likely to have higher BP and adiposity by age 10 years and abnormal lipids and glucose by age 16 years. There was a graded increase in the frequency of self-reported adult hypertension across the BP change groups, even within the persistently normotensive group (X2<0.0001) from 19% in children with a systolic BP% persistently below the median to 80% for individuals with elevated BP in both childhood and adolescence. Although our precision to predict which individual child is at risk of adult BP-related cardiovascular disease is weak, an increase in systolic BP and body mass index percentile from childhood to adolescence should signal a need for lifestyle intervention to prevent future sustained hypertension-related cardiovascular disease.

Utility of Different Blood Pressure Measurement Components in Childhood to Predict Adult Carotid Intima-Media Thickness.

Childhood blood pressure (BP) levels predict adult subclinical atherosclerosis. However, the best childhood BP component for prediction has not been determined. This study comprised 5925 participants aged 3 to 18 years from 6 cohorts who were followed into adulthood (mean follow-up 25.8±6.2 years). Childhood BP was measured by using a standard mercury sphygmomanometer in all cohorts. Study-specific carotid intima-media thickness ≥90th percentile was used to define subclinical atherosclerosis. Per SD change in the predictor, childhood systolic BP (SBP; age- and sex-adjusted odds ratio [95% CI], 1.24 [1.13-1.37]), mean arterial pressure (1.10 [1.07-1.13]), and pulse pressure (1.15 [1.05-1.27]) were associated with increased adulthood intima-media thickness. In age- and sex-adjusted analyses, area under the receiver operating characteristic curves for SBP ( C value [95% CI], 0.677 [0.657-0.704]) showed significantly improved prediction compared with diastolic BP (0.669 [0.646-0.693], P=0.006) or mean arterial pressure (0.674 [0.653-0.699], P=0.01). Pulse pressure provided a C value that was not different from SBP (0.676 [0.653-0.699], P=0.16). Combining different BP components did not improve prediction over SBP measurement alone. Based on the associations with adult carotid intima-media thickness, cut points for elevated SBP were 105 mm Hg for 3- to 6-year-old boys, 108 mm Hg for 3- to 6-year-old girls, 108 mm Hg for 7- to 12-year-old boys, 106 mm Hg for 7- to 12-year-old girls, 123 mm Hg for 13- to 18-year-old boys, and 115 mm Hg for 13- to 18-year-old girls. Our analyses suggest that several childhood BP measurement components are related to adulthood carotid intima-media thickness. Of these, SBP provided the best predictive ability.

Maternal arsenic exposure and nonsyndromic orofacial clefts.

BACKGROUND: Arsenic is widely distributed in the environment in both inorganic and organic forms. Evidence from animal studies suggests that maternal inorganic arsenic may lead to the development of orofacial clefts (OFC)s in offspring. This evidence, together with the limited epidemiologic data available, supports the need for a comprehensive examination of major sources of arsenic exposure and OFCs in humans. METHODS: Using interview data collected in the National Birth Defects Prevention Study, public and well water arsenic sampling data, and dietary arsenic estimates, we compared expert-rater assessed occupational arsenic exposure, individual-level exposure to arsenic through drinking water, and dietary arsenic exposure between mothers of OFC cases (N = 435) and unaffected controls (N = 1267). Associations for each source of exposure were estimated for cleft lip ± palate (CL/P) and cleft palate (CP) using unconditional logistic regression analyses. RESULTS: Associations for maternal drinking water arsenic exposure and CL/P were near or below unity, whereas those for dietary arsenic exposure tended to be positive. For CP, positive associations were observed for maternal occupational arsenic and inorganic arsenic exposures, with confidence intervals that excluded the null value, whereas those for drinking water or dietary arsenic exposures tended to be near or below unity. CONCLUSIONS: Positive associations were observed for maternal occupational arsenic exposure and CP and for maternal dietary arsenic exposure and CL/P; the remainder of associations estimated tended to be near or below unity. Given the exploratory nature of our study, the results should be interpreted cautiously, and continued research using improved exposure assessment methodologies is recommended.

Associations of fluoride intake with children's cortical bone mineral and strength measures at age 11.

OBJECTIVES: There is strong affinity between fluoride and calcium, and mineralized tissues. Investigations of fluoride and bone health during childhood and adolescence show inconsistent results. This analysis assessed associations between period-specific and cumulative fluoride intakes from birth to age 11, and age 11 cortical bone measures obtained using peripheral quantitative computed tomography (pQCT) of the radius and tibia (n = 424). METHODS: Participants were a cohort recruited from eight Iowa hospitals at birth. Fluoride intakes from water, other beverages, selected foods, dietary supplements, and dentifrice were recorded every 1.5-6 months using detailed questionnaires. Correlations between bone measures (cortical bone mineral content, density, area, and strength) and fluoride intake were determined in bivariate and multivariable analyses adjusting for Tanner stage, weight and height. RESULTS: The majority of associations were weak. For boys, only the positive associations between daily fluoride intakes for 0-3 years and radius and tibia bone mineral content were statistically significant. For girls, the negative correlations of recent daily fluoride intake per kg of body weight from 8.5 to 11 years with radius bone mineral content, area, and strength and tibia strength were statistically significant. No associations between cumulative daily fluoride intakes from birth to 11 years and bone measures were statistically significant. CONCLUSIONS: In this cohort of 11-year-old children, mostly living in optimally fluoridated areas, life-long fluoride intakes from combined sources were weakly associated with tibia and radius cortical pQCT measures.