Fine-scale maps of malaria incidence to inform risk stratification in Laos.

BACKGROUND: Malaria risk maps are crucial for controlling and eliminating malaria by identifying areas of varying transmission risk. In the Greater Mekong Subregion, these maps guide interventions and resource allocation. This article focuses on analysing changes in malaria transmission and developing fine-scale risk maps using five years of routine surveillance data in Laos (2017-2021). The study employed data from 1160 geolocated health facilities in Laos, along with high-resolution environmental data. METHODS: A Bayesian geostatistical framework incorporating population data and treatment-seeking propensity was developed. The models incorporated static and dynamic factors and accounted for spatial heterogeneity. RESULTS: Results showed a significant decline in malaria cases in Laos over the five-year period and a shift in transmission patterns. While the north became malaria-free, the south experienced ongoing transmission with sporadic outbreaks. CONCLUSION: The risk maps provided insights into changing transmission patterns and supported risk stratification. These risk maps are valuable tools for malaria control in Laos, aiding resource allocation, identifying intervention gaps, and raising public awareness. The study enhances understanding of malaria transmission dynamics and facilitates evidence-based decision-making for targeted interventions in high-risk areas.

Malaria risk stratification in Lao PDR guides program planning in an elimination setting.

Malaria in Lao People's Democratic Republic (Lao PDR) has declined rapidly over the last two decades, from 279,903 to 3926 (99%) cases between 2001 and 2021. Elimination of human malaria is an achievable goal and limited resources need to be targeted at remaining hotspots of transmission. In 2022, the Center of Malariology, Parasitology and Entomology (CMPE) conducted an epidemiological stratification exercise to assign districts and health facility catchment areas (HFCAs) in Lao PDR based on malaria risk. The stratification used reported malaria case numbers from 2019 to 2021, risk maps derived from predictive modelling, and feedback from malaria staff nationwide. Of 148 districts, 14 were deemed as burden reduction (high risk) districts and the remaining 134 as elimination (low risk) districts. Out of 1235 HFCAs, 88 (7%) were classified as highest risk, an improvement from 187 (15%) in the last stratification in 2019. Using the HFCA-level stratification, the updated stratification resulted in the at-risk population (total population in Strata 2, 3 and 4 HFCAs) declining from 3,210,191 to 2,366,068, a 26% decrease. CMPE are using the stratification results to strengthen targeting of resources. Updating national stratifications is a necessary exercise to assess progress in malaria control, reassign interventions to the highest risk populations in the country and ensure greatest impact of limited resources.