Hepatitis C virus cure from direct-acting antivirals and mortality: Are people with and without a history of injection drug use in the same boat? (ANRS CO22 Hepather cohort).

INTRODUCTION: The risk of mortality in people with a history of injection drug use (PHID) is high, as is the prevalence of hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection. Although direct-acting antivirals (DAA) are effective in this population in terms of sustained virological response, it is not known whether PHID benefit as much as people with no history of injection drug use from DAA-related HCV cure in terms of reduced all-cause mortality. METHODS: Using Cox proportional hazards models based on the ANRS CO22 Hepather cohort data (n = 9735), we identified factors associated with all-cause mortality among HCV-infected people. We tested for interaction effects between drug injection status, HCV cure and other explanatory variables. RESULTS: DAA-related HCV cure was associated with a 66% (adjusted hazard ratio [95% confidence interval]: 0.34 [0.29-0.39]) lower risk of all-cause mortality, irrespective of drug injection status. Detrimental effects of unhealthy alcohol use on mortality were identified in PHID only. DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSIONS: DAA-related HCV cure led to comparable benefits in terms of reduced mortality in PHID and people with no history of injection drug use. Policies and strategies to enhance DAA uptake among PHID are needed to lower mortality in this population. Clinical trial registration details: ClinicalTrials.gov: NCT01953458.

Performance of algorithms for identifying patients with chronic hepatitis B or C infection in the french health insurance claims databases using the ANRS CO22 HEPATHER cohort.

The validity of algorithms for identifying patients with chronic hepatitis B or C virus (HBV or HCV) infection in claims databases has been little explored. The performance of 15 algorithms was evaluated. Data from HBV- or HCV-infected patients enrolled between August 2012 and December 2015 in French hepatology centres (ANRS CO22 HEPATHER cohort) were individually linked to the French national health insurance system (SNDS). The SNDS covers 99% of the French population and contains healthcare reimbursement data. Performance metrics were calculated by comparing the viral status established by clinicians with those obtained with the algorithms identifying chronic HBV- and HCV-infected patients. A total of 14 751 patients (29% with chronic HBV and 63% with chronic HCV infection) followed-up until December 2018 were selected. Despite good specificity, the algorithms relying on ICD-10 codes performed poorly. By contrast, the multi-criteria algorithms combining ICD-10 codes, antiviral dispensing, laboratory diagnostic tests (HBV DNA or HCV RNA detection and quantification, HCV genotyping), examinations for the assessment of liver fibrosis and long-term disease registrations were the most effective (sensitivity 0.92, 95% CI, 0.91-0.93 and specificity 0.96, 95% CI, 0.95-0.96 for identifying chronic HBV-infected patients; sensitivity 0.94, 95% CI, 0.94-0.94 and specificity 0.85, 95% CI, 0.84-0.86 for identifying chronic HCV-infected patients). In conclusion, the multi-criteria algorithms perform well in identifying patients with chronic hepatitis B or C infection and can be used to estimate the magnitude of the public health burden associated with hepatitis B and C in France.

Integrating genetic variants into clinical models for hepatocellular carcinoma risk stratification in cirrhosis.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Identifying individuals at higher risk of developing hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is pivotal to improve the performance of surveillance strategies. Herein, we aimed to evaluate the ability of single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) to refine HCC risk stratification. METHODS: Six SNPs in PNPLA3, TM6SF2, HSD17B13, APOE, and MBOAT7 affecting lipid turnover and one variant involved in the Wnt-ß-catenin pathway (WNT3A-WNT9A rs708113) were assessed in patients with alcohol-related and/or HCV-cured cirrhosis included in HCC surveillance programmes (prospective CirVir and CIRRAL cohorts). Their prognostic value for HCC occurrence was assessed using Fine-Gray models combined into a 7-SNP genetic risk score (GRS). The predictive ability of two clinical scores (a routine non-genetic model determined by multivariate analysis and the external aMAP score) with/without the GRS was evaluated by C-indices. The standardised net benefit was derived from decision curves. RESULTS: Among 1,145 patients, 86 (7.5%) developed HCC after 43.7 months. PNPLA3 and WNT3A-WNT9A variants were independently associated with HCC occurrence. The GRS stratified the population into three groups with progressively increased 5-year HCC incidence (Group 1 [n = 627, 5.4%], Group 2 [n = 276, 10.7%], and Group 3 [n = 242, 15.3%]; p <0.001). The multivariate model identified age, male sex, diabetes, platelet count, gamma-glutamyltransferase levels, albuminemia and the GRS as independent risk factors. The clinical model performance for 5-year HCC prediction was similar to that of the aMAP score (C-Index 0.769). The addition of the GRS to both scores modestly improved their performance (C-Indices of 0.786 and 0.783, respectively). This finding was confirmed by decision curve analyses showing only fair clinical net benefit. CONCLUSIONS: Patients with cirrhosis can be stratified into HCC risk classes by variants affecting lipid turnover and the Wnt-ß-catenin pathway. The incorporation of this genetic information modestly improves the performance of clinical scores. IMPACT AND IMPLICATIONS: The identification of patients at higher risk of developing liver cancer is pivotal to improve the performance of surveillance. Risk assessment can be achieved by combining several clinical and biological parameters used in routine practice. The addition of patients' genetic characteristics can modestly improve this prediction and will ultimately pave the way for precision medicine in patients eligible for HCC surveillance, allowing physicians to trigger personalised screening strategies.

Impact of direct-acting antiviral treatment for hepatitis C on cardiovascular diseases and extrahepatic cancers.

PURPOSE: The impact of direct-acting antivirals (DAAs) on extrahepatic complications in chronic hepatitis C (CHC) patients remains poorly described. We estimated the association of DAAs with cardiovascular events and extrahepatic cancers. METHODS: The prospective ANRS CO22 HEPATHER cohort was enriched with individual data until December 2018 from the French Health Insurance Database (SNDS). CHC patients were enrolled between August 2012 and December 2015 in 32 French hepatology centers. A total of 8148 CHC adults were selected. Cardiovascular events (stroke, acute coronary syndrome, pulmonary embolism, heart failure, arrhythmias and conduction disorders [ACD], peripheral arterial disease [PAD]) and extrahepatic solid cancers were derived from the SNDS. Associations between DAAs and extrahepatic events were estimated using marginal structural models, with adjustments for clinical confounders. RESULTS: Analyses of 12 905 person-years of no DAA exposure and 22 326 person-years following DAA exposure showed a decreased risk of PAD after DAA exposure (hazard ratio [HR], 0.54; 95% CI, 0.33-0.89), a beneficial effect of DAAs on overall cardiovascular outcomes in patients with advanced fibrosis (aHR, 0.58; 95% CI, 0.42-0.79), and an increased risk of ACD (hazard ratio [HR], 1.46; 95% CI, 1.04-2.04), predominant after the first year following DAA initiation. There was no association between DAAs and extrahepatic cancer risk (HR, 1.23; 95% CI, 0.50-3.03). CONCLUSIONS: DAAs were not associated with extrahepatic cancer development or reduction. They were associated with a decreased risk of PAD and an increased risk of ACD, supporting long-term cardiac monitoring after DAA therapy.

Prevalence and risk factors of frailty among adults living with HIV aged 70 years or older.

OBJECTIVES AND DESIGN: Frailty is a phenotype associated with adverse health outcomes in older persons. It has been evaluated mainly in middle-aged persons with HIV (PWH). The French multicenter prospective ANRS EP66 SEPTAVIH study aimed to assess frailty prevalence and risk factors in PWH aged 70 years or older on antiretroviral treatment (ART) for at least 12 months. METHODS: At baseline, Fried frailty phenotype criteria, sociodemographic data, medical/HIV history, functional status, comorbidities, including impaired cognitive function, depression, history of falls, and co-medications were collected. We measured the prevalence of frailty and compared the characteristics of frail versus prefrail and robust participants using univariate (Kruskal-Wallis tests for continuous variables and Chi 2 tests for categorical variables) and multivariate analyses. RESULTS: Five hundred and ten PWH, mostly male (81.4%), were included with a median age of 73 years. The median HIV and ART durations were 22.7 years and 15.7 years, respectively. The prevalence of frailty was 13.5%, and of prefrailty 63.3%. In the multivariate analysis, increasing age [odds ratio (OR) 1.79 for each 5-year increment; 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.32-2.41], deprived socioeconomic status (OR 3.17; 95% CI 1.76-5.70), and multimorbidities (three or more) (OR 2.03; 95% CI 1.06-3.90) were associated with frailty. CONCLUSION: A low prevalence of frailty was reported (13.5%) in PWH aged 70 years or older, whereas two-thirds of them were prefrail. Age, low socioeconomic status, and multimorbidities, but no HIV-related factors, were associated with frailty, suggesting the need to target these factors to help promoting successful aging in this population.

Cannabis Use Is Inversely Associated with Metabolic Disorders in Hepatitis C-Infected Patients (ANRS CO22 Hepather Cohort).

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection is associated with the onset of metabolic disorders which constitute risk factors for liver disease progression. Their impact may persist after the HCV infection has been cured. Cannabis use is associated with a lower risk of obesity and diabetes in both general and HCV populations. The associations between cannabis use and both dyslipidemia and hypertension have not yet been studied in persons with chronic HCV infection. METHODS: Using cross-sectional data from the French ANRS CO22 Hepather cohort, we used regression models to test for an inverse relationship between cannabis use and (i) dyslipidemia, (ii) hypertension, and (iii) the total number of metabolic disorders. RESULTS: Among the 6364 participants in the study population, both former and current cannabis use were associated with a lower risk of hypertension and fewer metabolic disorders. These results were independent of central obesity. Cannabis use was not associated with dyslipidemia. CONCLUSIONS: In people chronically infected with HCV, cannabis use was associated with a lower risk of hypertension and a lower number of metabolic disorders. Post-HCV cure studies are needed to confirm these findings using longitudinal data and to test whether they translate into reduced mortality in this population.

HCV eradication does not protect from fibrosis progression in patients with fibrosing cholestatic hepatitis after liver transplantation.

INTRODUCTION: Hepatitis C virus (HCV) may recur after liver transplantation (LT) in the severe form of fibrosing cholestatic hepatitis (FCH). The prognosis dramatically improved by the use of direct acting antivirals (DAAs). The aim of the present study was to describe the change in histological features of FCH after virological eradication. METHODS: From the ANRS CUPILT cohort we included 17 patients who presented FCH and at least two graft biopsies, one before DAA-treatment and one after. A single expert pathologist, blinded for clinical outcome, retrospectively confirmed the diagnosis of FCH and progression of fibrosis. RESULTS: Diagnosis of FCH was made after a median [IQR] 6.0 [3.1-11.8] months after LT, and the median interval between diagnosis and onset of treatment was 1.2 [0.7-6.1] months. The rate of viral eradication was 94.1%. The median delay between the pre-treatment and the treatment biopsies was 12.5 [11.1-20.0] months. Between the end of treatment and the second biopsy, the delay was 5.3 [0.6-7.4] months. Fibrosis stage worsened in 10 patients (58.8%); 6 patients had cirrhosis (35.3%). Chronic rejection appeared in 4 (23.5%) patients. CONCLUSION: Our results suggest that, despite viral eradication in patients presenting FCH after LT, fibrosis progression was observed in half of patients. This should encourage monitoring fibrosis progression despite HCV cure.

Cannabis use as a factor of lower corpulence in hepatitis C-infected patients: results from the ANRS CO22 Hepather cohort.

BACKGROUND: Patients with chronic hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection are at greater risk of developing metabolic disorders. Obesity is a major risk factor for these disorders, and therefore, managing body weight is crucial. Cannabis use, which is common in these patients, has been associated with lower corpulence in various populations. However, this relationship has not yet been studied in persons with chronic HCV infection. METHODS: Using baseline data from the French ANRS CO22 Hepather cohort, we used binary logistic and multinomial logistic regression models to test for an inverse relationship between cannabis use (former/current) and (i) central obesity (i.e., large waist circumference) and (ii) overweight and obesity (i.e., elevated body mass index (BMI)) in patients from the cohort who had chronic HCV infection. We also tested for relationships between cannabis use and both waist circumference and BMI as continuous variables, using linear regression models. RESULTS: Among the 6348 participants in the study population, 55% had central obesity, 13.7% had obesity according to their BMI, and 12.4% were current cannabis users. After multivariable adjustment, current cannabis use was associated with lower risk of central obesity (adjusted odds ratio, aOR [95% confidence interval, CI]: 0.45 [0.37-0.55]), BMI-based obesity (adjusted relative risk ratio (aRRR) [95% CI]: 0.27 [0.19-0.39]), and overweight (aRRR [95% CI]: 0.47 [0.38-0.59]). This was also true for former use, but to a lesser extent. Former and current cannabis use were inversely associated with waist circumference and BMI. CONCLUSIONS: We found that former and, to a greater extent, current cannabis use were consistently associated with smaller waist circumference, lower BMI, and lower risks of overweight, obesity, and central obesity in patients with chronic HCV infection. Longitudinal studies are needed to confirm these relationships and to assess the effect of cannabis use on corpulence and liver outcomes after HCV cure. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov identifier: NCT01953458 .

Severe liver fibrosis in the HCV cure era: Major effects of social vulnerability, diabetes, and unhealthy behaviors.

Background & Aims: After HCV cure, not all patients achieve significant liver fibrosis regression. We explored the effects of clinical and socio-behavioral factors on liver fibrosis, before and after HCV cure with direct-acting antivirals. Methods: We analyzed data from the ongoing ANRS CO22 HEPATHER cohort, which prospectively collects clinical and socio-behavioral data on HCV-infected patients. Mixed-effects logistic regression models helped identify predictors of longitudinal measures of severe liver fibrosis, defined as a fibrosis-4 index >3.25. We also estimated the adjusted population attributable fractions (PAFs) for modifiable risk factors. Results: Among the 9,692 study patients (accounting for 24,687 visits over 4 years of follow-up, 48.5% of which were post-HCV cure), 26% had severe fibrosis at enrolment. After multivariable adjustment, HCV-cured patients had an 87% lower risk of severe fibrosis. An inverse dose-response relationship was found for coffee consumption, with the risk of severe fibrosis diminishing by 58% per additional cup/day (adjusted odds ratio (aOR 0.42; 95% CI 0.38-0.46). Unemployment, low educational level, and diabetes were associated with a higher severe fibrosis risk (aOR 1.69; 95% CI 1.32-2.16, aOR 1.50; 95% CI 1.20-1.86, and aOR 4.27; 95% CI 3.15-5.77, respectively). Severe fibrosis risk was 3.6/4.6-fold higher in individuals with previous/current unhealthy alcohol use than in abstinent patients. All these associations remained valid after HCV cure. The risk factors accounting for the greatest severe fibrosis burden were unemployment, low education level, and diabetes (PAFs: 29%, 21%, and 17%, respectively). Conclusions: Monitoring liver fibrosis after HCV cure is crucial for patients with low socioeconomic status, previous/current unhealthy alcohol use, and diabetes. Innovative HCV care models for the most socially vulnerable individuals and interventions for healthier lifestyles are needed to reinforce the positive effects of HCV cure on liver health. Lay summary: After hepatitis C virus (HCV) cure, not all patients achieve significant liver fibrosis regression. Herein, we studied the effects of clinical and socio-behavioral factors on the risk of severe liver fibrosis. Coffee consumption was strongly inversely associated with severe fibrosis, while diabetes, previous and current unhealthy alcohol use were associated with a 4.3-, 3.6- and 4.6-fold higher risk of severe fibrosis, respectively. Unemployment and low educational level were also associated with a higher risk of severe fibrosis. All these associations remained valid after HCV cure. These results demonstrate the need to continue liver fibrosis monitoring in at-risk groups, and to facilitate healthier lifestyles after HCV cure as a clinical and public health priority.

Prediction of hepatocellular carcinoma in Hepatitis C patients with advanced fibrosis after sustained virologic response.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Prediction of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) occurrence in patients with chronic hepatitis C (HCV) who achieved a sustained virological response (SVR) after direct acting antivirals (DAAs) remains challenging. METHODS: Among HCC-free HCV patients with advanced fibrosis enrolled in the ANRS CO22 HEPATHER cohort who achieved SVR 12 weeks after treatment with DAAs, HCC predictive models were developed using Cox multivariable regression. The derived score was externally validated in a large Egyptian cohort. Our main outcome was the HCC-free survival. RESULTS: During follow-up (median 3.05 years), 153 out of 3531 patients developed a HCC. Main variables associated with HCC occurrence were: male gender, HCV genotype 3, esophageal varices, albumin < 40 g/L, total bilirubin >11 µmol/L and hypercholesterolemia before DAA initiation, together with age > 58 years, FIB-4 index ≥3.25 evaluated at SVR. A score was established allowing the stratification of patients by high (score ≥ 12/22), intermediate (7 ≤ score <12) and low risk of HCC (score < 7/22) with 3-yrs HCC incidence of 18.96%, 5.50% and 1.65%, respectively. The integrated time-dependent area under the ROC curve (i-AUC) was 0.76 in our patients and 0.61 in the validation cohort. CONCLUSION: The externally validated HEPATHER HCC score has good short-term predictive performance in HCV- patients who achieved SVR12 after DAAs allowing to identify high-risk patients in whom HCC screening may be cost-effective and low-risk patients in whom HCC screening may be superfluous in the first 3 years after SVR.

Elevated coffee consumption is associated with a lower risk of elevated liver fibrosis biomarkers in patients treated for chronic hepatitis B (ANRS CO22 Hepather cohort).

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Patients chronically infected with hepatitis B virus (HBV) are at high risk of liver fibrosis, cirrhosis and liver cancer, despite recent therapeutic advances. It is therefore crucial to find non-pharmaceutical options for liver fibrosis prevention in this population. Using cross-sectional data from the ANRS CO22 Hepather cohort, we aimed to identify socio-demographic and modifiable risk factors for significant fibrosis in chronic HBV patients. METHODS: Logistic regression or Firth's penalized maximum likelihood logistic regression (according to outcome prevalence) multivariable models were used to test for associations between explanatory variables and significant fibrosis, as assessed by three non-invasive markers: aspartate aminotransferase to platelet ratio index (APRI), FIB-4, and gamma glutamyltransferase to platelet ratio (GPR). Analyses were stratified by HBV treatment status. RESULTS: The study population comprised 2065 untreated and 1727 treated chronic HBV patients. Elevated coffee consumption was consistently associated with a lower risk of elevated fibrosis biomarkers in all three treated-participant models, suggesting a dose-response relationship (adjusted odds ratios for ≥3 cups/day versus 0 cups/day: 0.16, 0.35 and 0.62, p ≤ 0.002, according to APRI, FIB-4 and GPR, respectively). Other modifiable risk factors included tobacco and alcohol use. CONCLUSION: Elevated coffee consumption was consistently associated with a lower risk of significant liver fibrosis, as assessed by three non-invasive markers in treated chronic HBV patients. This result can be immediately used in real-world situations, as increasing coffee consumption may be beneficial for patients at risk of advanced liver disease.

Clinical outcomes after treatment with direct antiviral agents: beyond the virological response in patients with previous HCV-related decompensated cirrhosis.

BACKGROUND: In HCV-infected patients with advanced liver disease, the direct antiviral agents-associated clinical benefits remain debated. We compared the clinical outcome of patients with a previous history of decompensated cirrhosis following treatment or not with direct antiviral agents from the French ANRS CO22 HEPATHER cohort. METHODS: We identified HCV patients who had experienced an episode of decompensated cirrhosis. Study outcomes were all-cause mortality, liver-related or non-liver-related deaths, hepatocellular carcinoma, liver transplantation. Secondary study outcomes were sustained virological response and its clinical benefits. RESULTS: 559 patients met the identification criteria, of which 483 received direct antiviral agents and 76 remained untreated after inclusion in the cohort. The median follow-up time was 39.7 (IQR: 22.7-51) months. After adjustment for multivariate analysis, exposure to direct antiviral agents was associated with a decrease in all-cause mortality (HR 0.45, 95% CI 0.24-0.84, p = 0.01) and non-liver-related death (HR 0.26, 95% CI 0.08-0.82, p = 0.02), and was not associated with liver-related death, decrease in hepatocellular carcinoma and need for liver transplantation. The sustained virological response was 88%. According to adjusted multivariable analysis, sustained virological response achievement was associated with a decrease in all-cause mortality (HR 0.29, 95% CI 0.15-0.54, p < 0.0001), liver-related mortality (HR 0.40, 95% CI 0.17-0.96, p = 0.04), non-liver-related mortality (HR 0.17, 95% CI 0.06-0.49, p = 0.001), liver transplantation (HR 0.17, 95% CI 0.05-0.54, p = 0.003), and hepatocellular carcinoma (HR 0.52, 95% CI 0.29-0.93, p = 0.03). CONCLUSION: Treatment with direct antiviral agents is associated with reduced risk for mortality. The sustained virological response was 88%. Thus, direct antiviral agents treatment should be considered for any patient with HCV-related decompensated cirrhosis. TRIAL REGISTRATION:  ClinicalTrials.gov registry number: NCT01953458.

Early hepatocellular carcinoma detection using magnetic resonance imaging is cost-effective in high-risk patients with cirrhosis.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Reinforced hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) surveillance using magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) could increase early tumour detection but faces cost-effectiveness issues. In this study, we aimed to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of MRI for the detection of very early HCC (Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer [BCLC] 0) in patients with an annual HCC risk >3%. METHODS: French patients with compensated cirrhosis included in 4 multicentre prospective cohorts were considered. A scoring system was constructed to identify patients with an annual risk >3%. Using a Markov model, the economic evaluation estimated the costs and life years (LYs) gained with MRI vs. ultrasound (US) monitoring over a 20-year period. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) was calculated by dividing the incremental costs by the incremental LYs. RESULTS: Among 2,513 patients with non-viral causes of cirrhosis (n = 840) and/or cured HCV (n = 1,489)/controlled HBV infection (n = 184), 206 cases of HCC were detected after a 37-month follow-up. When applied to training (n = 1,658) and validation (n = 855) sets, the construction of a scoring system identified 33.4% and 37.5% of patients with an annual HCC risk >3% (3-year C-Indexes 75 and 76, respectively). In patients with a 3% annual risk, the incremental LY gained with MRI was 0.4 for an additional cost of €6,134, resulting in an ICER of €15,447 per LY. Compared to US monitoring, MRI detected 5x more BCLC 0 HCC. The deterministic sensitivity analysis confirmed the impact of HCC incidence. At a willingness to pay of €50,000/LY, MRI screening had a 100% probability of being cost-effective. CONCLUSIONS: In the era of HCV eradication/HBV control, patients with annual HCC risk >3% represent one-third of French patients with cirrhosis. MRI is cost-effective in this population and could favour early HCC detection. LAY SUMMARY: The early identification of hepatocellular carcinoma in patients with cirrhosis is important to improve patient outcomes. Magnetic resonance imaging could increase early tumour detection but is more expensive and less accessible than ultrasound (the standard modality for surveillance). Herein, using a simple score, we identified a subgroup of patients with cirrhosis (accounting for >one-third), who were at increased risk of hepatocellular carcinoma and for whom the increased expense of magnetic resonance imaging would be justified by the potential improvement in outcomes.

HCV Eradication in Primary or Secondary Prevention Optimizes Hepatocellular Carcinoma Curative Management.

To assess the impact of HCV eradication on the outcomes of cirrhotic patients treated curatively for incidental hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) detected during surveillance program. Data were collected on 1,323 French patients with compensated biopsy-proven HCV cirrhosis recruited in 35 centers (ANRS CO12 CirVir cohort). Sustained virologic responses (SVR) and the occurrence of HCC were recorded prospectively. During a median follow-up of 68.3 months, 218 patients developed HCC, 126 of whom underwent a curative procedure as first-line therapy (ablation = 95, resection = 31). The HCC BCLC stage was 0/A in 97.5% of patients; 74 (58.7%) never achieved SVR. During a median follow-up of 26.0 months after HCC treatment, 59 (46.8%) experienced HCC recurrence. SVR was not associated with a recurrence, whether considering final SVR status [HR = 0.77; 95% confidence interval (95% CI), 0.43-1.39; P = 0.39] or its time to achievement (prior to/after HCC occurrence; global P = 0.28). During the same timeframe, 46 patients with HCC (36.5%) died (liver failure: 41.9%, HCC progression: 37.2%, extrahepatic causes: 20.9%). Under multivariate analysis, SVR was associated with improved survival [HR = 0.21; 95% CI, 0.08-0.52; P = 0.001]. Survival benefit was explained by a lower incidence of liver decompensation and higher rates of sequential HCC re-treatment. Direct antiviral intake was not associated with a higher risk of HCC recurrence, but with improved survival (HR = 0.23; 95% CI, 0.06-0.83; P = 0.024). HCV eradication in primary or secondary prevention optimizes HCC management through preservation of liver function and improves survival, whatever the regimen. PREVENTION RELEVANCE: Liver failure is a competing risk of death in patients with HCC eligible for curative procedures. HCV eradication does not decrease risk of HCC recurrence in the first two years, but enables sequential curative HCC treatments through preservation of liver function. Direct-acting antiviral agent intake is not associated with HCC recurrence and improves survival.

Absence of impact of direct acting antivirals for hepatitis C virus on recurrent hepatocellular carcinoma tumor growth in the AFEF/ANRS CO22 Hepather cohort.

BACKGROUND: Although it has now been excluded that direct-acting antivirals (DAA) are associated with a significant risk of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in HCV-infected patients, a possible effect of DAA on tumor growth is still a subject of debate. We performed a blind comparison of the kinetics of HCC recurrence in patients after HCV treatment with or without DAA to evaluate the potential aggressiveness of HCC after DAA treatment. BASIC PROCEDURES: Thirty-nine HCV-infected patients from the AFEF/ANRS CO22 Hepather cohort who experienced HCC recurrence after so-called curative treatment were evaluated. Contrast-enhanced CT and/or MR images were read blindly 6 months before HCC recurrence and during the follow-up period. Seventeen patients who received DAA (DAA+) before HCC recurrence were compared to the 22 who did not receive (DAA-), according to the LiRads and mRECIST criteria. MAIN FINDINGS: There were 28 men and 11 women, median age 62 years old, 37 (95%) with cirrhosis. DAA+ patients had a lower median MELD score (8±2 vs. 10±4, P=0.0286) than DAA- patients. The median time to HCC recurrence (time from the date of curative treatment to the diagnosis of recurrence) was not different (20 vs. 18 months) (P=0.73) between the two groups. There was no difference between the 2 groups in the overall survival and/or transplantation-free survival (P=0.71) and for the mRECIST time to progression (P=0.25). CONCLUSION: This blinded analysis of HCC recurrence after HCC treatment does not support any negative impact of DAA therapy on the severity or progression of recurrent HCC.

Personalized surveillance for hepatocellular carcinoma in cirrhosis - using machine learning adapted to HCV status.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Refining hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) surveillance programs requires improved individual risk prediction. Thus, we aimed to develop algorithms based on machine learning approaches to predict the risk of HCC more accurately in patients with HCV-related cirrhosis, according to their virological status. METHODS: Patients with compensated biopsy-proven HCV-related cirrhosis from the French ANRS CO12 CirVir cohort were included in a semi-annual HCC surveillance program. Three prognostic models for HCC occurrence were built, using (i) Fine-Gray regression as a benchmark, (ii) single decision tree (DT), and (iii) random survival forest for competing risks survival (RSF). Model performance was evaluated from C-indexes validated externally in the ANRS CO22 Hepather cohort (n = 668 enrolled between 08/2012-01/2014). RESULTS: Out of 836 patients analyzed, 156 (19%) developed HCC and 434 (52%) achieved sustained virological response (SVR) (median follow-up 63 months). Fine-Gray regression models identified 6 independent predictors of HCC occurrence in patients before SVR (past excessive alcohol intake, genotype 1, elevated AFP and GGT, low platelet count and albuminemia) and 3 in patients after SVR (elevated AST, low platelet count and shorter prothrombin time). DT analysis confirmed these associations but revealed more complex interactions, yielding 8 patient groups with varying cancer risks and predictors depending on SVR achievement. On RSF analysis, the most important predictors of HCC varied by SVR status (non-SVR: platelet count, GGT, AFP and albuminemia; SVR: prothrombin time, ALT, age and platelet count). Externally validated C-indexes before/after SVR were 0.64/0.64 [Fine-Gray], 0.60/62 [DT] and 0.71/0.70 [RSF]. CONCLUSIONS: Risk factors for hepatocarcinogenesis differ according to SVR status. Machine learning algorithms can refine HCC risk assessment by revealing complex interactions between cancer predictors. Such approaches could be used to develop more cost-effective tailored surveillance programs. LAY SUMMARY: Patients with HCV-related cirrhosis must be included in liver cancer surveillance programs, which rely on ultrasound examination every 6 months. Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) screening is hampered by sensitivity issues, leading to late cancer diagnoses in a substantial number of patients. Refining surveillance periodicity and modality using more sophisticated imaging techniques such as MRI may only be cost-effective in patients with the highest HCC incidence. Herein, we demonstrate how machine learning algorithms (i.e. data-driven mathematical models to make predictions or decisions), can refine individualized risk prediction.

Non-invasive fibrosis tests to predict complications in compensated post-hepatitis C cirrhosis.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Markers predicting complications of post-hepatitis C cirrhosis are needed. We asked whether changes in noninvasive markers of fibrosis can predict liver-related complications. METHODS: This was a case-controlled study using a prospective national cohort (ANRS-CO12-CIRVIR) of 1323 HCV-infected patients with compensated cirrhosis: 97 patients who developed liver-related complications such as hepatocellular carcinoma or hepatic decompensation (cases) matched in age, sex and follow-up duration were compared with 257 patients without complications (controls). Actitest/Fibrotest™, Inflameter/Fibrometer™, ELF™ and Fibroscan™ were performed at baseline and yearly. Samples based on Propensity score matching were built and mixed linear models performed. Outcomes in a sustained virological response (SVR) negative population and a SVR-positive population were also described. RESULTS: At baseline, all characteristics of patients were similar between the groups. All fibrosis tests were statistically higher for cases compared to controls, Fibroscan™ excepted: Fibrotest™: 0.83±0.13 vs. 0.77±0.16; Fibrometer™: 0.93±0.07 vs. 0.90±0.11; ELF™: 11.4±1.0 vs. 11.0±1.2 (P<0.02). The mean follow-up was 5.7±1.9 years. Over a 3-year period, the significant difference in fibrosis marker values between cases and controls remained constant; with a trend toward a decrease in inflammation markers in controls, independent of SVR status. CONCLUSIONS: Baseline noninvasive serum fibrosis and inflammation markers were significantly higher in patients developing a complication than in controls. During the follow-up only inflammatory markers decreased in controls, but not in cases, and thus could potentially be used to predict the occurrence of complications in cirrhotic patients.

Comparison of the effect of direct-acting antiviral with and without ribavirin on cyclosporine and tacrolimus clearance values: results from the ANRS CO23 CUPILT cohort.

PURPOSE: Direct-acting antiviral agents have demonstrated their efficacy in treating HCV recurrence after liver transplantation and particularly the sofosbuvir/daclatasvir combination. Pharmacokinetic data on both calcineurin inhibitors and direct-acting antiviral exposure in liver transplant recipients remain sparse. METHODS: Patients were enrolled from the ANRS CO23 CUPILT cohort. All patients treated with sofosbuvir/daclatasvir with or without ribavirin were included in this study when blood samples were available to estimate the clearance of immunosuppressive therapy before direct-acting antiviral initiation and during follow-up. Apparent tacrolimus and cyclosporine clearances were estimated from trough concentrations measured using validated quality control assays. RESULTS: Sixty-seven mainly male patients (79%) were included, with a mean age of 57 years and mean MELD score of 8.2; 50 were on tacrolimus, 17 on cyclosporine. Ribavirin was combined with sofosbuvir/daclatasvir in 52% of patients. Cyclosporine clearance remained unchanged as well as tacrolimus clearance under the ribavirin-free regimen. Tacrolimus clearance increased 4 weeks after direct-acting antivirals and ribavirin initiation versus baseline (geometric mean ratio 1.81; 90% CI 1.30-2.52). Patients under ribavirin had a significantly higher fibrosis stage (> 2) (p = 0.02) and lower haemoglobin during direct-acting antiviral treatment (p = 0.02) which impacted tacrolimus measurements. Direct-acting antiviral exposure was within the expected range. CONCLUSION: Our study demonstrated that liver transplant patients with a recurrence of hepatitis C who are initiating ribavirin combined with a sofosbuvir-daclatasvir direct-acting antiviral regimen may be at risk of lower tacrolimus concentrations because of probable ribavirin-induced anaemia and higher fibrosis score, although there are no effects on cyclosporine levels. TRIAL REGISTRATION: NCT01944527.

Validation of Baveno VI Criteria for Screening and Surveillance of Esophageal Varices in Patients With Compensated Cirrhosis and a Sustained Response to Antiviral Therapy.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Management of patients with cirrhosis includes endoscopic screening and surveillance to detect esophageal varices (EV) and prevent bleeding. However, the Baveno VI guidelines recommend avoiding endoscopies for patients with liver stiffness measurements below 20 kPa and platelet counts above 150,000 (favorable Baveno VI status) and endoscopic assessment of patients with higher levels of liver stiffness and platelet counts (unfavorable Baveno VI status). We aimed to validate the Baveno VI guidelines, evaluating outcomes of patients in the ANRS-CO12 CirVir cohort with compensated cirrhosis associated with hepatitis B virus (HBV) or hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection, with or without a sustained response to antiviral therapy. METHODS: We performed an ancillary study using data from 891 patients in the ANRS CO12 CirVir cohort, treated at 35 centers in France, with HCV or HBV infection and biopsy-proven cirrhosis, Child-Pugh A scores, no previous complications, and no hepatocellular carcinoma who underwent an endoscopic procedure and had interpretable liver stiffness measurements and platelet counts. Progression of portal hypertension (PHT) was defined as the onset of varices needing treatment (VNT) or PHT-related bleeding. An sustained response to antiviral therapy was defined as undetectable level of HCV RNA by polymerase chain reaction assay (<50 IU/mL) 12 weeks after the end of treatment (SVR) or an undetectable level of HBV DNA. The primary aims were to validate the Baveno VI guidelines for screening and surveillance of EV in patients with compensated cirrhosis and to study the effects of an SVR on the progression of PHT. RESULTS: A total of 200 patients achieved an SVR (22.4%) (94 patients with HCV infection, 98 patients with HBV infection, and 8 patients with both); 80 of these patients had favorable Baveno VI status and none had VNT. Progression of PHT was studied in 548 patients; during a follow-up period of 61.2 months (interquartile range, 39.5-80.6 months), 105 of these patients (19.1%) had progression of PHT. Lack of an SVR and grade 1 EV were independently associated with progression of PHT. At the time of PHT progression, all patients had unfavorable Baveno VI status. Achieving favorable Baveno VI status after an SVR was associated with the absence of PHT progression. Favorable Baveno VI status and SVR were independently associated with survival. CONCLUSIONS: In an analysis of data from a large cohort of patients with HBV- or HCV-associated cirrhosis in France, we validated the Baveno VI guidelines on screening and surveillance of PHT, even for patients who achieved a sustained response to antiviral therapy.