Development and external validation of a predictive model for type 2 diabetic retinopathy.

Diabetes retinopathy (DR) is a critical clinical disease with that causes irreversible visual damage in adults, and may even lead to permanent blindness in serious cases. Early identification and treatment of DR is critical. Our aim was to train and externally validate a prediction nomogram for early prediction of DR. 2381 patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) were retrospective study from the First Affiliated Hospital of Xinjiang Medical University in Xinjiang, China, hospitalised between Jan 1, 2019 and Jun 30, 2022. 962 patients with T2DM from the Suzhou BenQ Hospital in Jiangsu, China hospitalised between Jul 1, 2020 to Jun 30, 2022 were considered for external validation. The least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) and multivariate logistic regression was performed to identify independent predictors and establish a nomogram to predict the occurrence of DR. The performance of the nomogram was evaluated using a receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC), a calibration curve, and decision curve analysis (DCA). Neutrophil, 25-hydroxyvitamin D3 [25(OH)D3], Duration of T2DM, hemoglobin A1c (HbA1c), and Apolipoprotein A1 (ApoA1) were used to establish a nomogram model for predicting the risk of DR. In the development and external validation groups, the areas under the curve of the nomogram constructed from the above five factors were 0.834 (95%CI 0.820-0.849) and 0.851 (95%CI 0.829-0.874), respectively. The nomogram demonstrated excellent performance in the calibration curve and DCA. This research has developed and externally verified that the nomograph model shows a good predictive ability in assessing DR risk in people with type 2 diabetes. The application of this model will help clinicians to intervene early, thus effectively reducing the incidence rate and mortality of DR in the future, and has far-reaching significance in improving the long-term health prognosis of diabetes patients.

Training and External Validation of a Predict Nomogram for Type 2 Diabetic Peripheral Neuropathy.

Background: Diabetic peripheral neuropathy (DPN) is a critical clinical disease with high disability and mortality rates. Early identification and treatment of DPN is critical. Our aim was to train and externally validate a prediction nomogram for early prediction of DPN. Methods: 3012 patients with T2DM were retrospectively studied. These patients were hospitalized between 1 January 2017 and 31 December 2020 in the First Affiliated Hospital of Xinjiang Medical University in Xinjiang, China. A total of 901 patients with T2DM from the Suzhou BenQ Hospital in Jiangsu, China who were hospitalized between 1 January 2019 and 31 December 2020 were considered for external validation. The least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) and multivariate logistic regression were performed to identify independent predictors and establish a nomogram to predict the occurrence of DPN. The performance of the nomogram was evaluated using a receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC), a calibration curve, and a decision curve analysis (DCA). Findings: Age, 25-hydroxyvitamin D3 [25(OH)D3], Duration of T2DM, high-density lipoprotein (HDL), hemoglobin A1c (HbA1c), and fasting blood glucose (FBG) were used to establish a nomogram model for predicting the risk of DPN. In the training and validation cohorts, the areas under the curve of the nomogram constructed from the above six factors were 0.8256 (95% CI: 0.8104-0.8408) and 0.8608 (95% CI: 0.8376-0.8840), respectively. The nomogram demonstrated excellent performance in the calibration curve and DCA. Interpretation: This study has developed and externally validated a nomogram model which exhibits good predictive ability in assessing DPN risk among the type 2 diabetes population. It provided clinicians with an accurate and effective tool for the early prediction and timely management of DPN.