Developing SysteMatic: Prevention, precision and equity by design for people living with multiple long-term conditions.

Background: The number of individuals living with multiple (≥2) long term conditions (MLTCs) is a growing global challenge. People with MLTCs experience reduced life expectancy, complex healthcare needs, higher healthcare utilisation, increased burden of treatment, poorer quality of life and higher mortality. Evolving technologies including artificial intelligence (AI) could address some of these challenges by enabling more preventive and better integrated care, however, they may also exacerbate inequities. Objective: We aim to deliver an equity focused, action-ready plan for transforming MLTC prevention and care, co-designed by people with lived experience of MLTCs and delivered through an Innovation Hub: SysteMatic. Design: Our Hub is being co-designed by people with lived experience of MLTCs, practitioners, academics and industry partners in Liverpool and Glasgow, UK. This work builds on research into mental-physical health interdependence across the life-course, and on mobilisation of large-scale quantitative data and technology validation in health and care systems serving deprived populations in Glasgow and Liverpool. We work with 3 population segments: 1) Children & Families: facing psychosocial and environmental challenges with lifetime impacts; 2). Working Life: people with poorly integrated mental, physical and social care; and 3) Pre-Frailty: older people with MLTCs. We aim to understand their experiences and in parallel look at routinely collected health data on people with MLTCs to help us identify targets for intervention. We are co-identifying opportunities for systems transformation with our patient partners, healthcare professionals and through discussion with companies and public-sector organisations. We are co-defining 3/5/7-year MLTC innovation/transition targets and sustainable learning approaches. Discussion: SysteMatic will deliver an actionable MLTC Innovation Hub strategic plan, with investment from the UK National Health Service, civic health and care partners, universities, and industry, enabling feedback of well-translated, patient and public prioritised problems into the engineering, physical, health and social sciences to underpin future equitable innovation delivery.

Hearing and vision rehabilitation for people with dementia in five European countries (SENSE-Cog): a randomised controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: The effect of hearing and vision difficulties on the risk of developing dementia and worsening outcomes in people already living with dementia is well established. We evaluated the clinical impact of a hearing and vision rehabilitation and support programme on quality of life in people with mild-to-moderate dementia and concurrent sensory difficulties. METHODS: We conducted a parallel-group, multicentre, observer-blind, superiority randomised controlled trial in seven older adult clinics in five European countries (Cyprus, France, Greece, Ireland, and the UK). People with mild-to-moderate dementia with adult-acquired hearing difficulties, vision difficulties, or both were randomly assigned (1:1) along with their care partner to an 18-week home-basedsensory support intervention (SSI) of tailored hearing and vision rehabilitation and support, or to care as usual. Randomisation was blocked (block size of four, six, or eight) and stratified by country, with allocation assigned via a remote web-based system. The SSI included: full hearing assessment, vision assessment, or both; fitting of hearing aids, glasses, or other sensory aids; and home-based support from a sensory support therapist to assist adherence and uptake of sensory aids, foster social networking, and optimise the home sensory environment. Care as usual involved no additional intervention beyond services normally available to people with dementia at the respective sites. The primary outcome was health-related quality of life (Dementia Quality of Life Instrument [DEMQoL]) score at 36 weeks, reported as an adjusted mean difference. Analyses were done according to the intention-to-treat principle. This trial is registered with the ISRCTN Registry, ISRCTN17056211. FINDINGS: Between May 4, 2018, and May 6, 2021, 252 people with mild-to-moderate dementia were randomly assigned, of whom 251 (n=126 in the SSI group and n=125 in the care as usual group) were included in the analysis. The mean age of participants was 79·6 years (SD 5·8), and 132 (53%) were women. After a median follow-up time of 37·7 weeks (IQR 36·2-39·0), the mean DEMQoL score was 92·8 (SD 15·2) in the SSI group and 92·8 (14·0) in the care as usual group (adjusted difference 0·18, 95% CI -2·13 to 2·30, p=0·87). Among 114 adverse events reported for 56 (44%) participants in the SSI group, ten events in nine participants were related or possibly related to the intervention (medical device pain or discomfort n=6, ear pain n=1, scratch to the ear n=1, sore eye n=1, redness n=1; all of grade 1). Serious adverse events were reported for 25 (20%) participants in the SSI group and 16 (13%) in the care as usual group. Six (5%) participants in the SSI group and five (4%) in the care as usual group died. None of the serious adverse events or deaths were related to the study intervention or procedures. INTERPRETATION: This study showed no improvement in quality in life in participants who received the intervention in the longer term. Sensory difficulties are common in people with dementia and interventions aimed at improving sensory-cognitive health should be explored further. FUNDING: EU Horizon 2020.

28-country global study on associations between cultural characteristics and Recovery College fidelity.

Recovery Colleges (RCs) are learning-based mental health recovery communities, located globally. However, evidence on RC effectiveness outside Western, educated, industrialised, rich, and democratic (WEIRD) countries is limited. This study aimed to evaluate associations between cultural characteristics and RC fidelity, to understand how culture impacts RC operation. Service managers from 169 RCs spanning 28 WEIRD and non-WEIRD countries assessed the fidelity using the RECOLLECT Fidelity Measure, developed based upon key RC operation components. Hofstede's cultural dimension scores were entered as predictors in linear mixed-effects regression models, controlling for GDP spent on healthcare and Gini coefficient. Higher Individualism and Indulgence, and lower Uncertainty Avoidance were associated with higher fidelity, while Long-Term Orientation was a borderline negative predictor. RC operations were predominantly aligned with WEIRD cultures, highlighting the need to incorporate non-WEIRD cultural perspectives to enhance RCs' global impact. Findings can inform the refinement and evaluation of mental health recovery interventions worldwide.

Care coordinator delivered method of levels therapy to improve engagement and other outcomes in early psychosis (CAMEO): protocol for a feasibility cluster-randomised controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: Rates of disengagement from early intervention in psychosis (EIP) services are high. Care coordinators make up the largest staff group in EIP services and have the most frequent and sustained contact with service users. The quality of relationships between service users and care coordinators plays a central role in determining the effectiveness of EIP services. Care coordinators, however, are not routinely offered training in psychosocial interventions that could enhance the therapeutic impact of their role. Method of levels (MOL) is a flexible, transdiagnostic cognitive therapy with potential advantages over previously evaluated approaches. Training care coordinators in MOL could make their routine contacts with service users more helpful and improve outcomes such as recovery rates and levels of engagement. AIMS: This study aims to assess the feasibility of training care coordinators in EIP services to deliver MOL, to understand whether this approach might improve service user engagement and recovery from psychosis compared to treatment as usual, and to assess the feasibility of conducting a cluster-randomised controlled trial (C-RCT) with clustering at the level of teams. Specific feasibility outcomes relate to the recruitment and retention of participants, care coordinators' level of engagement with the MOL training and supervision programme, implementation of MOL in practice, and the acceptability of the intervention amongst participants. METHODS: A feasibility parallel group cluster-randomised controlled trial (C-RCT) designs with two arms: (1) treatment as usual (TAU) or (2) TAU plus support from a care coordinator who has received training in MOL. Randomisation will take place at the level of EIP teams with an allocation ratio of 1:2 in favour of the intervention arm. Our recruitment target is 12 EIP teams, 24 care coordinators working in participating EIP teams, and up to 96 service users working with participating care coordinators. Outcomes will be collected at baseline, 3 months, and 6 months. Qualitative methods will be used to understand participants' experiences of the study, MOL training programme, and MOL intervention. DISCUSSION: This is the first study that aims to evaluate the feasibility of training EIP care coordinators to deliver MOL in their routine practice. Training care coordinators in MOL could enhance the quality of relationships between care coordinators and service users and improve outcomes for people experiencing early psychosis. Results will be used to determine the appropriateness of progressing to a larger evaluation trial. TRIAL REGISTRATION: This study was prospectively registered with the ISRCTN Registry (14082421).

Estimating the economic effect of harm associated with high risk prescribing of oral non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs in England: population based cohort and economic modelling study.

OBJECTIVES: To quantify prevalence, harms, and NHS costs in England of problematic oral non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drug (NSAID) prescribing in high risk groups. DESIGN: Population based cohort and economic modelling study. SETTING: Economic models estimating patient harm associated with NSAID specific hazardous prescribing events, and cost to the English NHS, over a 10 year period, were combined with trends of hazardous prescribing event to estimate national levels of patient harm and NHS costs. PARTICIPANTS: Eligible participants were prescribed oral NSAIDs and were in five high risk groups: older adults (≥65 years) with no gastroprotection; people who concurrently took oral anticoagulants; or those with heart failure, chronic kidney disease, or a history of peptic ulcer. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Prevalence of hazardous prescribing events, by each event and overall, discounted quality adjusted life years (QALYs) lost, and cost to the NHS in England of managing harm. RESULTS: QALY losses and cost increases were observed for each hazardous prescribing event (v no hazardous prescribing event). Mean QALYs per person were between 0.01 (95% credibility interval (CI) 0.01 to 0.02) lower with history of peptic ulcer, to 0.11 (0.04 to 0.19) lower with chronic kidney disease. Mean cost increases ranged from a non-statistically significant £14 (€17; $18) (95% CI -£71 to £98) in heart failure, to a statistically significant £1097 (£236 to £2542) in people concurrently taking anticoagulants. Prevalence of hazardous prescribing events per 1000 patients ranged from 0.11 in people who have had a peptic ulcer to 1.70 in older adults. Nationally, the most common hazardous prescribing event (older adults with no gastroprotection) resulted in 1929 (1416 to 2452) QALYs lost, costing £2.46m (£0.65m to £4.68m). The greatest impact was in people concurrently taking oral anticoagulants: 2143 (894 to 4073) QALYs lost, costing £25.41m (£5.25m to £60.01m). Over 10 years, total QALYs lost were estimated to be 6335 (4471 to 8658) and an NHS cost for England of £31.43m (£9.28m to £67.11m). CONCLUSIONS: NSAIDs continue to be a source of avoidable harm and healthcare cost in these five high risk populations, especially in inducing an acute event in people with chronic condition and people taking oral anticoagulants.

Service design for children and young people with common mental health problems: literature review, service mapping and collective case study.

Background: The mental health of children/young people is a growing concern internationally. Numerous reports and reviews have consistently described United Kingdom children's mental health services as fragmented, variable, inaccessible and lacking an evidence base. Little is known about the effectiveness of, and implementation complexities associated with, service models for children/young people experiencing 'common' mental health problems like anxiety, depression, attention deficit hyperactivity disorder and self-harm. Aim: To develop a model for high-quality service design for children/young people experiencing common mental health problems by identifying available services, barriers and enablers to access, and the effectiveness, cost effectiveness and acceptability of such services. Design: Evidence syntheses with primary research, using a sequential, mixed-methods design. Inter-related scoping and integrative reviews were conducted alongside a map of relevant services across England and Wales, followed by a collective case study of English and Welsh services. Setting: Global (systematic reviews); England and Wales (service map; case study). Data sources: Literature reviews: relevant bibliographic databases and grey literature. Service map: online survey and offline desk research. Case study: 108 participants (41 children/young people, 26 parents, 41 staff) across nine case study sites. Methods: A single literature search informed both reviews. The service map was obtained from an online survey and internet searches. Case study sites were sampled from the service map; because of coronavirus disease 2019, case study data were collected remotely. 'Young co-researchers' assisted with case study data collection. The integrative review and case study data were synthesised using the 'weaving' approach of 'integration through narrative'. Results: A service model typology was derived from the scoping review. The integrative review found effectiveness evidence for collaborative care, outreach approaches, brief intervention services and the 'availability, responsiveness and continuity' framework. There was cost-effectiveness evidence only for collaborative care. No service model appeared to be more acceptable than others. The service map identified 154 English and Welsh services. Three themes emerged from the case study data: 'pathways to support'; 'service engagement'; and 'learning and understanding'. The integrative review and case study data were synthesised into a coproduced model of high-quality service provision for children/young people experiencing common mental health problems. Limitations: Defining 'service model' was a challenge. Some service initiatives were too new to have filtered through into the literature or service map. Coronavirus disease 2019 brought about a surge in remote/digital services which were under-represented in the literature. A dearth of relevant studies meant few cost-effectiveness conclusions could be drawn. Conclusions: There was no strong evidence to suggest any existing service model was better than another. Instead, we developed a coproduced, evidence-based model that incorporates the fundamental components necessary for high-quality children's mental health services and which has utility for policy, practice and research. Future work: Future work should focus on: the potential of our model to assist in designing, delivering and auditing children's mental health services; reasons for non-engagement in services; the cost effectiveness of different approaches in children's mental health; the advantages/disadvantages of digital/remote platforms in delivering services; understanding how and what the statutory sector might learn from the non-statutory sector regarding choice, personalisation and flexibility. Study registration: This study is registered as PROSPERO CRD42018106219. Funding: This award was funded by the National Institute for Health and Care Research (NIHR) Health and Social Care Delivery Research programme (NIHR award ref: 17/09/08) and is published in full in Health and Social Care Delivery Research; Vol. 12, No. 13. See the NIHR Funding and Awards website for further award information.

In this research study, we explored services for children and young people with 'common' mental health problems like depression, anxiety and self-harm. We aimed to find out what services exist, how children/young people and families find out about and access these services, what the services actually do, whether they are helpful and whether they offer value for money. We looked at the international literature (reports and research papers) to identify different approaches to providing support, and to find out whether certain approaches worked better than others and whether children/young people and families preferred some approaches over others. The literature provided very little information about the value for money of services. We also carried out a survey and used the internet to identify 154 relevant services in England and Wales. To explore services in more detail, and hear directly from those using them, we planned to visit 9 of the 154 services to interview children/young people, parents and staff. Unfortunately, coronavirus disease 2019 stopped us directly visiting the nine services and so we conducted phone and video interviews instead. We still managed to speak to, and hear the experiences of, more than 100 people (including children/young people and parents). We combined information from the literature with information from the interviews to create an evidence-based 'model' of what services should look like. This model considers some basic things like how quickly children/young people could access a service, what information was available, the importance of confidentiality and whether staff make the service fit with the child/young person's needs and interests. It also considers whether the service helps children/young people learn skills to manage their mental health and whether staff at a service work well together. We hope our model will help existing and new services improve what they offer to children/young people and families.

Synergism between remdesivir and ribavirin leads to SARS-CoV-2 extinction in cell culture.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: There is a need for effective anti-COVID-19 treatments, mainly for individuals at risk of severe disease such as the elderly and the immunosuppressed. Drug repositioning has proved effective in identifying drugs that can find a new application for the control of coronavirus disease, in particular COVID-19. The purpose of the present study was to find synergistic antiviral combinations for COVID-19 based on lethal mutagenesis. EXPERIMENTAL APPROACH: The effect of combinations of remdesivir and ribavirin on the infectivity of SARS-CoV-2 in cell culture has been tested. Viral populations were monitored by ultra-deep sequencing, and the decrease of infectivity as a result of the treatment was measured. KEY RESULTS: Remdesivir and ribavirin exerted a synergistic inhibitory activity against SARS-CoV-2, quantified both by CompuSyn (Chou-Talalay method) and Synergy Finder (ZIP-score model). In serial passage experiments, virus extinction was readily achieved with remdesivir-ribavirin combinations at concentrations well below their cytotoxic 50 value, but not with the drugs used individually. Deep sequencing of treated viral populations showed that remdesivir, ribavirin, and their combinations evoked significant increases of the number of viral mutations and haplotypes, as well as modification of diversity indices that characterize viral quasi-species. CONCLUSION AND IMPLICATIONS: SARS-CoV-2 extinction can be achieved by synergistic combination treatments based on lethal mutagenesis. In addition, the results offer prospects of triple drug treatments for effective SARS-CoV-2 suppression.

Multiple adverse outcomes associated with antipsychotic use in people with dementia: population based matched cohort study.

OBJECTIVE: To investigate risks of multiple adverse outcomes associated with use of antipsychotics in people with dementia. DESIGN: Population based matched cohort study. SETTING: Linked primary care, hospital and mortality data from Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD), England. POPULATION: Adults (≥50 years) with a diagnosis of dementia between 1 January 1998 and 31 May 2018 (n=173 910, 63.0% women). Each new antipsychotic user (n=35 339, 62.5% women) was matched with up to 15 non-users using incidence density sampling. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: The main outcomes were stroke, venous thromboembolism, myocardial infarction, heart failure, ventricular arrhythmia, fracture, pneumonia, and acute kidney injury, stratified by periods of antipsychotic use, with absolute risks calculated using cumulative incidence in antipsychotic users versus matched comparators. An unrelated (negative control) outcome of appendicitis and cholecystitis combined was also investigated to detect potential unmeasured confounding. RESULTS: Compared with non-use, any antipsychotic use was associated with increased risks of all outcomes, except ventricular arrhythmia. Current use (90 days after a prescription) was associated with elevated risks of pneumonia (hazard ratio 2.19, 95% confidence interval (CI) 2.10 to 2.28), acute kidney injury (1.72, 1.61 to 1.84), venous thromboembolism (1.62, 1.46 to 1.80), stroke (1.61, 1.52 to 1.71), fracture (1.43, 1.35 to 1.52), myocardial infarction (1.28, 1.15 to 1.42), and heart failure (1.27, 1.18 to 1.37). No increased risks were observed for the negative control outcome (appendicitis and cholecystitis). In the 90 days after drug initiation, the cumulative incidence of pneumonia among antipsychotic users was 4.48% (4.26% to 4.71%) versus 1.49% (1.45% to 1.53%) in the matched cohort of non-users (difference 2.99%, 95% CI 2.77% to 3.22%). CONCLUSIONS: Antipsychotic use compared with non-use in adults with dementia was associated with increased risks of stroke, venous thromboembolism, myocardial infarction, heart failure, fracture, pneumonia, and acute kidney injury, but not ventricular arrhythmia. The range of adverse outcomes was wider than previously highlighted in regulatory alerts, with the highest risks soon after initiation of treatment.

Estimating the impact on patient safety of enabling the digital transfer of patients' prescription information in the English NHS.

OBJECTIVES: To estimate the number and burden of medication errors associated with prescription information transfer within the National Health Service (NHS) in England and the impact of implementing an interoperable prescription information system (a single digital prescribing record shared across NHS settings) in reducing these errors. METHODS: We constructed a probabilistic mathematical model. We estimated the number of transition medication errors that would be undetected by standard medicines reconciliation, based on published literature, and scaled this up based on the annual number of hospital admissions. We used published literature to estimate the proportion of errors that lead to harm and applied this to the number of errors to estimate the associated burden (healthcare resource use and deaths). Finally, we used reported effect sizes for electronic prescription information sharing interventions to estimate the impact of implementing an interoperable prescription information system on number of errors and resulting harm. RESULTS: Annually, around 1.8 million (95% credibility interval (CrI) 1.3 to 2.6 million) medication errors were estimated to occur at hospital transitions in England, affecting approximately 380 000 (95% CrI 260 397 to 539 876) patient episodes. Harm from these errors affects around 31 500 (95% CrI 22 407 to 42 906) patients, with 36 500 (95% CrI 25 093 to 52 019) additional bed days of inpatient care (costing around £17.8 million (95% CrI £12.4 to £24.9 million)) and >40 (95% CrI 9 to 146) deaths. Assuming the implementation of an interoperable prescription information system could reduce errors by 10% and 50%, there could be 180 000-913 000 fewer errors, 3000-15 800 fewer people who experience harm and 4-22 lives saved annually. CONCLUSIONS: An interoperable prescription information system could provide major benefits for patient safety. Likely additional benefits include healthcare professional time saved, improved patient experience and care quality, quicker discharge and enhanced cross-organisational medicines optimisation. Our findings provide vital safety and economic evidence for the case to adopt interoperable prescription information systems.

Measuring EQ-5D-5L utility values in parents who have experienced perinatal death.

BACKGROUND: Policymakers use clinical and cost-effectiveness evidence to support decisions about health service commissioning. In England, the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) recommend that in cost-effectiveness analyses "effectiveness" is measured as quality-adjusted life years (QALYs), derived from health utility values. The impact of perinatal death (stillbirth/neonatal death) on parents' health utility is currently unknown. This knowledge would improve the robustness of cost-effectiveness evidence for policymakers. OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to estimate the impact of perinatal death on parents' health utility. METHODS: An online survey conducted with mothers and fathers in England who experienced a perinatal death. Participants reported how long ago their baby died and whether they/their partner subsequently became pregnant again. They were asked to rate their health on the EQ-5D-5L instrument (generic health measure). EQ-5D-5L responses were used to calculate health utility values. These were compared with age-matched values for the general population to estimate a utility shortfall (i.e. health loss) associated with perinatal death. RESULTS: There were 256 survey respondents with a median age of 40 years (IQR 26-40). Median time since death was 27 months (IQR 8-71). The mean utility value of the sample was 0.774 (95% CI 0.752-0.796). Utility values in the sample were 13% lower than general population values (p < 0.05). Over 10 years, this equated to a loss of 1.1 QALYs. This reduction in health utility was driven by anxiety and depression. CONCLUSIONS: Perinatal death has important and long-lasting health impacts on parents. Mental health support following perinatal bereavement is especially important.

A collaboratively produced model of service design for children and young people with common mental health problems.

BACKGROUND: Little is known about the effectiveness of, and implementation complexities associated with, service delivery models for children and young people (CYP) experiencing 'common' mental health problems such as anxiety, depression, behavioural difficulties and self-harm. This paper outlines how a model for high-quality service design for this population group was developed by identifying available services, their effectiveness, cost-effectiveness and acceptability, and the barriers and enablers to access. METHODS: Sequential, mixed-methods design, combining evidence syntheses (scoping and integrative reviews of the international literature) with primary research (a collective case study in England and Wales). Data from these two elements were collaboratively synthesised in a subsequent model-building phase. RESULTS: The scoping review yielded a service model typology. The integrative review found effectiveness evidence only for four models: collaborative care (the only service model to also have cost-effectiveness evidence), outreach approaches, brief intervention services and an organisational framework called 'Availability, Responsiveness and Continuity'. No service model seemed more acceptable than others. Three case study themes were identified: pathways to support; service engagement; and learning and understanding. The model-building phase identified rapid access, learning self-care skills, individualised support, clear information, compassionate and competent staff and aftercare planning as core characteristics of high-quality services. These characteristics were underpinned by four organisational qualities: values that respect confidentiality; engagement and involvement; collaborative relationships; and a learning culture. CONCLUSIONS: A consistent organisational evidence-base for service design and delivery in CYP's mental health spanning many years appears to have had little impact on service provision in England and Wales. Rather than impose - often inflexible and untested - specific local or national models or frameworks, those commissioning, designing and delivering mental health services for CYP should (re)focus on already known, fundamental components necessary for high-quality services. These fundamental components have been integrated into a collaboratively produced general model of service design for CYP with common mental health problems. While this general model is primarily focused on British service provision, it is broad enough to have utility for international audiences.

Generating EQ-5D-3L health utility scores from the Edinburgh Postnatal Depression Scale: a perinatal mapping study.

BACKGROUND: Perinatal depression (PND) describes depression experienced by parents during pregnancy or in the first year after a baby is born. The EQ-5D instrument (a generic measure of health status) is not often collected in perinatal research, however disease-specific measures, such as the Edinburgh Postnatal Depression Scale (EPDS) are widely used. Mapping can be used to estimate generic health utility index values from disease-specific measures like the EPDS. OBJECTIVE: To develop a mapping algorithm to estimate EQ-5D utility index values from the EPDS. METHODS: Patient-level data from the BaBY PaNDA study (English observational cohort study) provided 1068 observations with paired EPDS and EQ-5D (3-level version; EQ-5D-3L) responses. We compared the performance of six alternative regression model types, each with four specifications of covariates (EPDS score and age: base, squared, and cubed). Model performance (ability to predict utility values) was assessed by ranking mean error, mean absolute error, and root mean square error. Algorithm performance in 3 external datasets was also evaluated. RESULTS: There was moderate correlation between EPDS score and utility values (coefficient: - 0.42). The best performing model type was a two-part model, followed by ordinary least squared. Inclusion of squared and cubed covariates improved model performance. Based on graphs of observed and predicted utility values, the algorithm performed better when utility was above 0.6. CONCLUSIONS: This direct mapping algorithm allows the estimation of health utility values from EPDS scores. The algorithm has good external validity but is likely to perform better in samples with higher health status.

PAK1-dependent mechanotransduction enables myofibroblast nuclear adaptation and chromatin organization during fibrosis.

Myofibroblasts are responsible for scarring during fibrosis. The scar propagates mechanical signals inducing a radical transformation in myofibroblast cell state and increasing profibrotic phenotype. Here, we show mechanical stress from progressive scarring induces nuclear softening and de-repression of heterochromatin. The parallel loss of H3K9Me3 enables a permissive state for distinct chromatin accessibility and profibrotic gene regulation. Integrating chromatin accessibility profiles with RNA expression provides insight into the transcription network underlying the switch in profibrotic myofibroblast states, emphasizing mechanoadaptive regulation of PAK1 as key drivers. Through genetic manipulation in liver and lung fibrosis, loss of PAK1-dependent signaling impairs the mechanoadaptive response in vitro and dramatically improves fibrosis in vivo. Moreover, we provide human validation for mechanisms underpinning PAK1-mediated mechanotransduction in liver and lung fibrosis. Collectively, these observations provide insight into the nuclear mechanics driving the profibrotic chromatin landscape in fibrosis, highlighting actomyosin-dependent mechanisms as potential therapeutic targets in fibrosis.

An economic evaluation of universal and targeted case-finding strategies for identifying antenatal depression: a model-based analysis comparing common case-finding instruments.

Half of women with depression in the perinatal period are not identified in routine care, and missed cases reflect inequalities in other areas of maternity care. Case finding (screening) for depression in pregnant women may be a cost-effective strategy to improve identification, and targeted case finding directs finite resources towards the greatest need. We compared the cost-effectiveness of three case-finding strategies: no case finding, universal (all pregnant women), and targeted (only pregnant women with risk factors for antenatal depression, i.e. history of anxiety/depression, age < 20 years, and adverse life events). A decision tree model was developed to represent case finding (at around 20 weeks gestation) and subsequent treatment for antenatal depression (up to 40 weeks gestation). Costs include case finding and treatment. Health benefits are measured as quality-adjusted life years (QALYs). The sensitivity and specificity of case-finding instruments and prevalence and severity of antenatal depression were estimated from a cohort study of pregnant women. Other model parameters were derived from published literature and expert consultation. The most cost-effective case-finding strategy was a two-stage strategy comprising the Whooley questions followed by the PHQ-9. The mean costs were £52 (universal), £61 (no case finding), and £62 (targeted case finding). Both case-finding strategies improve health compared with no case finding. Universal case finding is cost-saving. Costs associated with targeted case finding are similar to no case finding, with greater health gains, although targeted case finding is not cost-effective compared with universal case finding. Universal case finding for antenatal depression is cost-saving compared to no case finding and more cost-effective than targeted case finding.

Organisational and student characteristics, fidelity, funding models, and unit costs of recovery colleges in 28 countries: a cross-sectional survey.

BACKGROUND: Recovery colleges were developed in England to support the recovery of individuals who have mental health symptoms or mental illness. They have been founded in many countries but there has been little international research on recovery colleges and no studies investigating their staffing, fidelity, or costs. We aimed to characterise recovery colleges internationally, to understand organisational and student characteristics, fidelity, and budget. METHODS: In this cross-sectional study, we identified all countries in which recovery colleges exist. We repeated a cross-sectional survey done in England for recovery colleges in 28 countries. In both surveys, recovery colleges were defined as services that supported personal recovery, that were coproduced with students and staff, and where students learned collaboratively with trainers. Recovery college managers completed the survey. The survey included questions about organisational and student characteristics, fidelity to the RECOLLECT Fidelity Measure, funding models, and unit costs. Recovery colleges were grouped by country and continent and presented descriptively. We used regression models to explore continental differences in fidelity, using England as the reference group. FINDINGS: We identified 221 recovery colleges operating across 28 countries, in five continents. Overall, 174 (79%) of 221 recovery colleges participated. Most recovery colleges scored highly on fidelity. Overall scores for fidelity (ß=-2·88, 95% CI 4·44 to -1·32; p=0·0001), coproduction (odds ratio [OR] 0·10, 95% CI 0·03 to 0·33; p<0·0001), and being tailored to the student (OR 0·10, 0·02 to 0·39; p=0·0010), were lower for recovery colleges in Asia than in England. No other significant differences were identified between recovery colleges in England, and those in other continents where recovery colleges were present. 133 recovery colleges provided data on annual budgets, which ranged from €0 to €2 550 000, varying extensively within and between continents. From included data, all annual budgets reported by the college added up to €30 million, providing 19 864 courses for 55 161 students. INTERPRETATION: Recovery colleges exist in many countries. There is an international consensus on key operating principles, especially equality and a commitment to recovery, and most recovery colleges achieve moderate to high fidelity to the original model, irrespective of the income band of their country. Cultural differences need to be considered in assessing coproduction and approaches to individualising support. FUNDING: National Institute for Health and Care Research.

Estimating the impact of implementing an integrated care management approach with Atrial fibrillation Better Care (ABC) pathway for patients with atrial fibrillation in England from 2020-2040.

BACKGROUND: Stroke prevention is central to the management of atrial fibrillation (AF), but there remains a residual risk of adverse outcomes in anticoagulated AF patients. Hence, current guidelines have proposed a more holistic or integrated approach to AF management, based on the Atrial fibrillation Better Care (ABC) pathway, as follows: A: Avoid stroke with Anticoagulation; B: Better symptom control with patient-centred symptom directed decisions on rate or rhythm control; C: Cardiovascular and comorbidity management, including lifestyle factors. There has been no formal healthcare cost analysis from the UK NHS perspective, of ABC pathway implementation to optimise the management of AF. Our aim was to estimate the number of patients with AF in the UK each year up to 2040, their morbidity and mortality, and the associated healthcare costs. Secondly, to estimate improvements in morbidity and mortality of implementing an ABC pathway, and the impact on costs. RESULTS: In 2020 there were an estimated 1 463 538 AF patients, resulting in £286 m of stroke care and £191 m of care related to bleeds annually. By 2030 it is expected that there will be 2 115 332 AF patients, resulting in £666 m of stroke healthcare and £444 m of healthcare related to bleeds. By 2040 this is expected to rise to 2 856 489 AF patients, with £1 096 m of stroke healthcare and £731 m of healthcare related to bleeds for that year. If in 2040, patients are managed on an ABC pathway this could prevent between 3 724 and 18 622 strokes, between 5 378 and 26 890 bleeds and save between 16 131 and 80 653 lives depending on the proportion of patients managed on the pathway. This would equate to cost reductions of between £143.9 m and £719.6 m for the year. CONCLUSION: We estimate there will be a substantial healthcare burden in the UK NHS associated with AF, from strokes, bleeds and mortality over the next decades. If patients are managed with a holistic or integrated care approach based on the ABC pathway, this could prevent strokes and bleeds that equate to substantial NHS healthcare cost reductions, and save lives.

An economic evaluation of targeted case-finding strategies for identifying postnatal depression: A model-based analysis comparing common case-finding instruments.

BACKGROUND: Half of women with postnatal depression (PND) are not identified in routine care. We aimed to estimate the cost-effectiveness of PND case-finding in women with risk factors for PND. METHODS: A decision tree was developed to represent the one-year costs and health outcomes associated with case-finding and treatment for PND. The sensitivity and specificity of case-finding instruments, and prevalence and severity of PND, for women with ≥1 PND risk factor were estimated from a cohort of postnatal women. Risk factors were history of anxiety/depression, age < 20 years, and adverse life events. Other model parameters were derived from published literature and expert consultation. Case-finding for high-risk women only was compared with no case-finding and universal case-finding. RESULTS: More than half of the cohort had one or more PND risk factor (57.8 %; 95 % CI 52.7 %-62.7 %). The most cost-effective case-finding strategy was the Edinburgh Postnatal Depression Scale with a cut-off of ≥10 (EPDS-10). Among high-risk women, there is a high probability that EPDS-10 case-finding for PND is cost-effective compared to no case-finding (78.5 % at a threshold of £20,000/QALY), with an ICER of £8146/QALY gained. Universal case-finding is even more cost-effective at £2945/QALY gained (versus no case-finding). There is a greater health improvement with universal rather than targeted case-finding. LIMITATIONS: The model includes costs and health benefits for mothers in the first year postpartum, the broader (e.g. families, societal) and long-term impacts are also important. CONCLUSIONS: Universal PND case-finding is more cost-effective than targeted case-finding which itself is more cost-effective than not case-finding.

Bridging pre-surgical endocrine therapy for breast cancer during the COVID-19 pandemic: outcomes from the B-MaP-C study.

PURPOSE: The B-MaP-C study investigated changes to breast cancer care that were necessitated by the COVID-19 pandemic. Here we present a follow-up analysis of those patients commenced on bridging endocrine therapy (BrET), whilst they were awaiting surgery due to reprioritisation of resources. METHODS: This multicentre, multinational cohort study recruited 6045 patients from the UK, Spain and Portugal during the peak pandemic period (Feb-July 2020). Patients on BrET were followed up to investigate the duration of, and response to, BrET. This included changes in tumour size to reflect downstaging potential, and changes in cellular proliferation (Ki67), as a marker of prognosis. RESULTS: 1094 patients were prescribed BrET, over a median period of 53 days (IQR 32-81 days). The majority of patients (95.6%) had strong ER expression (Allred score 7-8/8). Very few patients required expedited surgery, due to lack of response (1.2%) or due to lack of tolerance/compliance (0.8%). There were small reductions in median tumour size after 3 months' treatment duration; median of 4 mm [IQR - 20, 4]. In a small subset of patients (n = 47), a drop in cellular proliferation (Ki67) occurred in 26 patients (55%), from high (Ki67 ≥ 10%) to low (< 10%), with at least one month's duration of BrET. DISCUSSION: This study describes real-world usage of pre-operative endocrine therapy as necessitated by the pandemic. BrET was found to be tolerable and safe. The data support short-term (≤ 3 months) usage of pre-operative endocrine therapy. Longer-term use should be investigated in future trials.

Evidence-based Recovery Colleges: developing a typology based on organisational characteristics, fidelity and funding.

PURPOSE: Recovery Colleges (RCs) have been implemented across England with wide variation in organisational characteristics. The purpose of this study is to describe RCs across England in terms of organisational and student characteristics, fidelity and annual spending, to generate a RC typology based on characteristics and to explore the relationship between characteristics and fidelity. METHODS: All RC in England meeting criteria on recovery orientation, coproduction and adult learning were included. Managers completed a survey capturing characteristics, fidelity and budget. Hierarchical cluster analysis was conducted to identify common groupings and generate an RC typology. RESULTS: Participants comprised 63 (72%) of 88 RC in England. Fidelity scores were high (median 11, IQR 9-13). Both NHS and strengths-focussed RCs were associated with higher fidelity. The median annual budget was £200,000 (IQR £127,000-£300,000) per RC. The median cost per student was £518 (IQR £275-£840), cost per course designed was £5,556 (IQR £3,000-£9,416) and per course run was £1,510 (IQR £682-£3,030). The total annual budget across England for RCs is an estimated £17.6 m including £13.4 m from NHS budgets, with 11,000 courses delivered to 45,500 students. CONCLUSION: Although the majority of RCs had high levels of fidelity, there were sufficiently pronounced differences in other key characteristics to generate a typology of RCs. This typology might prove important for understanding student outcomes and how they are achieved and for commissioning decisions. Staffing and co-producing new courses are key drivers of spending. The estimated budget for RCs was less than 1% of NHS mental health spending.

An integrated ecological approach to countering targeted violence on the U.S.-Mexico border: Insights and lessons learned.

Well-integrated and productive communities are an asset to the development and advancement of our nation, and they have an important role to play in planning, learning, and enforcing safety to enhance national and border security. REACH (Resilience, Education, Action, Commitment, and Humanity) is a community-based project housed at The University of Texas at El Paso that aims to prevent targeted violence and domestic terrorism in El Paso County. We integrated three frameworks (i.e., Whole Community Preparedness, Socio-Ecological Model, and Global Citizen Education) to involve local residents in efforts to combat and mitigate targeted violence. REACH had two goals: to (1) prevent targeted violence and domestic terrorism through education, outreach, and community capacity-building aimed at identifying and deterring radicalization (primary prevention) and (2) reduce the short-term and long-term impact and prevent re-occurrence of targeted violence and domestic terrorism (secondary and tertiary prevention). Overall, our project served 8,934 participants directly and reached many more through our media cavmpaigns and outreach efforts during our 2 years of project implementation (2021-2023). Our project design may serve as an implementation model for other community-based projects on the U.S.-Mexico border and can be replicated with other target populations in the U.S. Insights and lessons learned from this project are discussed.