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1.
Emerg Infect Dis ; 29(1): 145-148, 2023 01.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36573733

RESUMO

In July 2019, Bourbon virus RNA was detected in an Amblyomma americanum tick removed from a resident of Long Island, New York, USA. Tick infection and white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) serosurvey results demonstrate active transmission in New York, especially Suffolk County, emphasizing a need for surveillance anywhere A. americanum ticks are reported.


Assuntos
Cervos , Carrapatos , Animais , New York/epidemiologia , Vetores Aracnídeos
2.
NeoBiota ; 78: 99-127, 2022.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-37408738

RESUMO

The Asian tiger mosquito (Aedes albopictus) arrived in the USA in the 1980's and rapidly spread throughout eastern USA within a decade. The predicted northern edge of its overwintering distribution on the East Coast of the USA roughly falls across New York, Connecticut, and Massachusetts, where the species has been recorded as early as 2000. It is unclear whether Ae. albopictus populations have become established and survive the cold winters in these areas or are recolonized every year. We genotyped and analyzed populations of Ae. albopictus from the northeast USA using 15 microsatellite markers and compared them with other populations across the country and to representatives of the major global genetic clades to investigate their connectivity and stability. Founder effects or bottlenecks were rare at the northern range of the Ae. albopictus distribution in the northeastern USA, with populations displaying high levels of genetic diversity and connectivity along the East Coast. There is no evidence of population turnover in Connecticut during the course of three consecutive years, with consistent genetic structure throughout this period. Overall, these results support the presence of established populations of Ae. albopictus in New York, Connecticut, and Massachusetts, successfully overwintering and migrating in large numbers. Given the stability and interconnectedness of these populations, Ae. albopictus has the potential to continue to proliferate and expand its range northward under mean warming conditions of climate change. Efforts to control Ae. albopictus in these areas should thus focus on vector suppression rather than eradication strategies, as local populations have become firmly established and are expected to reemerge every summer.

3.
Emerg Infect Dis ; 27(12): 3128-3132, 2021 12.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34648421

RESUMO

During 2018, Heartland virus RNA was detected in an Amblyomma americanum tick removed from a resident of Suffolk County, New York, USA. The person showed seroconversion. Tick surveillance and white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) serosurveys showed widespread distribution in Suffolk County, emphasizing a need for disease surveillance anywhere A. americanum ticks are established or emerging.


Assuntos
Cervos , Phlebovirus , Carrapatos , Animais , Humanos , New York/epidemiologia
4.
Stat J IAOS ; 37(2): 673-680, 2021 Jun 03.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34413910

RESUMO

Record linkage enables survey data to be integrated with other data sources, expanding the analytic potential of both sources. However, depending on the number of records being linked, the processing time can be prohibitive. This paper describes a case study using a supervised machine learning algorithm, known as the Sequential Coverage Algorithm (SCA). The SCA was used to develop the join strategy for two data sources, the National Center for Health Statistics' (NCHS) 2016 National Hospital Care Survey (NHCS) and the Center for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) Enrollment Database (EDB), during record linkage. Due to the size of the CMS data, common record joining methods (i.e. blocking) were used to reduce the number of pairs that need to be evaluated to identify the vast majority of matches. NCHS conducted a case study examining how the SCA improved the efficiency of blocking. This paper describes how the SCA was used to design the blocking used in this linkage.

5.
J Med Entomol ; 58(4): 1966-1969, 2021 07 16.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33822135

RESUMO

Pesticide resistance in medically significant disease vectors can negatively impact the efficacy of control efforts. Resistance research on ticks has focused primarily on species of veterinary significance that experience relatively high degrees of control pressure. Resistance in tick vectors of medical significance has received little attention, in part because area-wide pesticide applications are not used to control these generalist tick species. One of the few effective methods currently used for area-wide control of medically important ticks, including Ixodes scapularis Say (Acari: Ixodidae), is deployment of 4-poster devices. Deer self-apply a topical acaricide (permethrin) while feeding on corn from the devices. A 4-poster program using permethrin has been deployed on Shelter Island, NY to control I. scapularis populations since 2008. We collected engorged female ticks from deer in this management area and a location in the Mid-Hudson River Valley, NY without area-wide tick control. Larvae were reared from egg masses and their susceptibility to permethrin was tested. Larvae originating from a long-term laboratory colony were used as a susceptible baseline for comparison. Compared against the laboratory colony, resistance ratios at LC-50 for Shelter Island and Hudson Valley I. scapularis were 1.87 and 1.51, respectively. The susceptibilities of the field populations to permethrin were significantly lower than that of the colony ticks. We provide the first data using the larval packet test to establish baseline susceptibility for I. scapularis to permethrin along with information relevant to understanding resistance emergence in tick populations under sustained control pressure from 4-poster devices.


Assuntos
Cervos/parasitologia , Ixodes/efeitos dos fármacos , Permetrina/farmacologia , Infestações por Carrapato/veterinária , Acaricidas/farmacologia , Animais , Resistência a Inseticidas , Doença de Lyme/transmissão , Controle de Ácaros e Carrapatos/métodos
6.
J Med Entomol ; 58(2): 787-797, 2021 03 12.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33128057

RESUMO

Pesticide resistance in arthropod vectors of disease agents is a growing issue globally. Despite the importance of resistance monitoring to inform mosquito control programs, no regional monitoring programs exist in the United States. The Northeastern Regional Center for Excellence in Vector-Borne Diseases (NEVBD) is a consortium of researchers and public health practitioners with a primary goal of supporting regional vector control activities. NEVBD initiated a pesticide resistance monitoring program to detect resistant mosquito populations throughout the northeastern United States. A regionwide survey was distributed to vector control agencies to determine needs and refine program development and in response, a specimen submission system was established, allowing agencies to submit Culex pipiens (L.) (Diptera:Culicidae) and Aedes albopictus (Skuse) (Diptera: Culicidae) for pesticide resistance testing. NEVBD also established larvicide resistance diagnostics for Bacillus thuringiensis israelensis (Bti) and methoprene. Additional diagnostics were developed for Cx. pipiens resistance to Lysinibacillus sphaericus. We received 58 survey responses, representing at least one agency from each of the 13 northeastern U.S. states. Results indicated that larvicides were deployed more frequently than adulticides, but rarely paired with resistance monitoring. Over 18,000 mosquitoes were tested from six states. Widespread low-level (1 × LC-99) methoprene resistance was detected in Cx. pipiens, but not in Ae. albopictus. No resistance to Bti or L. sphaericus was detected. Resistance to pyrethroids was detected in many locations for both species. Our results highlight the need for increased pesticide resistance testing in the United States and we provide guidance for building a centralized pesticide resistance testing program.


Assuntos
Culicidae/efeitos dos fármacos , Resistência a Inseticidas , Aedes/efeitos dos fármacos , Aedes/crescimento & desenvolvimento , Animais , Bacillaceae , Bacillus thuringiensis , Bioensaio/métodos , Agentes de Controle Biológico/farmacologia , Culex/efeitos dos fármacos , Culex/crescimento & desenvolvimento , Inseticidas/farmacologia , Larva/efeitos dos fármacos , Larva/crescimento & desenvolvimento , Metoprene/farmacologia , Controle de Mosquitos , Mosquitos Vetores/crescimento & desenvolvimento , Piretrinas/farmacologia , Estados Unidos
7.
Emerg Microbes Infect ; 9(1): 1638-1650, 2020 Dec.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32672516

RESUMO

Surveillance for the emerging infectious disease Eastern equine encephalitis, and its causative virus in mosquitoes, continued within New York State from 2013 to 2019. There were increases in geographic area and number of consecutive years, with cases in four mammalian species, and virus in 11 mosquito species. The first cases in a goat and in an emu were reported. The first detection of virus in Aedes cinereus was reported. Virus in phylogenetic group NY4 was isolated from a horse and from mosquitoes 6 kilometers and 13 days apart in 2013. Phylogenetic groups NY4 and NY5 were found 15 days apart in two towns 280 kilometers distant in 2013. Within four adjacent counties there was a pattern of overlap, where four had NY5, two adjacent counties had NY6, two adjacent counties had NY7, and one county had NY5, NY6, and NY7, reducible to a Euler diagram. Virus in phylogenetic group NY5, found within an 11-kilometer wide area in New York State, was related to FL4 found in Florida 1,398 kilometers distant. This was consistent with a phylogenetic group originating in Florida, then being moved to a specific location in New York State, by migratory birds in consecutive years 2013 and 2014.


Assuntos
Culicidae/virologia , Vírus da Encefalite Equina do Leste/classificação , Cavalos/virologia , Animais , Vírus da Encefalite Equina do Leste/genética , Vírus da Encefalite Equina do Leste/isolamento & purificação , Florida , Cabras/virologia , Humanos , New York , Filogenia , Vigilância da População , Análise Espaço-Temporal
8.
Zoonoses Public Health ; 67(6): 637-650, 2020 09.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32638553

RESUMO

Established populations of Asian longhorned ticks (ALT), Haemaphysalis longicornis, were first identified in the United States (US) in 2017 by sequencing the mitochondrial cytochrome c oxidase subunit I (cox1) 'barcoding' locus followed by morphological confirmation. Subsequent investigations detected ALT infestations in 12, mostly eastern, US states. To gain information on the origin and spread of US ALT, we (1) sequenced cox1 from ALT populations across 9 US states and (2) obtained cox1 sequences from potential source populations [China, Japan and Republic of Korea (ROK) as well as Australia, New Zealand and the Kingdom of Tonga (KOT)] both by sequencing and by downloading publicly available sequences in NCBI GenBank. Additionally, we conducted epidemiological investigations of properties near its initial detection locale in Hunterdon County, NJ, as well as a broader risk analysis for importation of ectoparasites into the area. In eastern Asian populations (China/Japan/ROK), we detected 35 cox1 haplotypes that neatly clustered into two clades with known bisexual versus parthenogenetic phenotypes. In Australia/New Zealand/KOT, we detected 10 cox1 haplotypes all falling within the parthenogenetic cluster. In the United States, we detected three differentially distributed cox1 haplotypes from the parthenogenetic cluster, supporting phenotypic evidence that US ALT are parthenogenetic. While none of the source populations examined had all three US cox1 haplotypes, a phylogeographic network analysis supports a northeast Asian source for the US populations. Within the United States, epidemiological investigations indicate ALT can be moved long distances by human transport of animals, such as horses and dogs, with smaller scale movements on wildlife. These results have relevant implications for efforts aimed at minimizing the spread of ALT in the United States and preventing additional exotic tick introductions.


Assuntos
Distribuição Animal , Ixodidae/fisiologia , Animais , DNA Mitocondrial/genética , Complexo IV da Cadeia de Transporte de Elétrons/genética , Regulação Enzimológica da Expressão Gênica , Estados Unidos
9.
J Am Mosq Control Assoc ; 36(4): 261-263, 2020 12 01.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33647113

RESUMO

Identifying the array of vectors that play a role in perpetuating West Nile virus (WNV) infection in endemic foci will help in controlling the disease. Aedes japonicus has the potential to be a vector in the wild of at least 3 kinds of encephalitis, including WNV. Aedes japonicus is a nonnative species in the USA that is temperature tolerant and a potential human biter. Detection of WNV in mosquito pools of this field-collected invasive species, combined with their ability to feed on humans, make this mosquito species a possible public health concern. In this study, we collected mosquito abundance data and tested them for WNV-positive mosquito samples from 3 counties in New York State. We found a significant association between the season and land demography and the likelihood of the virus in Ae. japonicus.


Assuntos
Aedes/virologia , Vírus do Nilo Ocidental/isolamento & purificação , Animais , Feminino , New York
10.
JAMA Netw Open ; 2(4): e193175, 2019 04 05.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-31026036

RESUMO

Importance: West Nile virus (WNV) is the leading cause of domestically acquired arboviral disease. Objective: To develop real-time WNV forecasts of infected mosquitoes and human cases. Design, Setting, and Participants: Real-time forecasts of WNV in 4 geographically dispersed locations in the United States were generated using a WNV model-inference forecasting system previously validated with retrospective data. Analysis was performed to evaluate how observational reporting delays of mosquito WNV assay results and human medical records were associated with real-time forecast accuracy. Exposures: Mosquitoes positive for WNV and human cases. Main Outcomes and Measures: Delays in reporting mosquito WNV assay results and human medical records and the association of these delays with real-time WNV forecast accuracy. Results: Substantial delays in data reporting exist for both infected mosquitoes and human WNV cases. For human cases, confirmed data (n = 37) lagged behind the onset of illness by a mean (SD) of 5.5 (2.3) weeks (range, 2-14 weeks). These human case reporting lags reduced mean forecast accuracy for the total number of human cases over the season in 110 simulated outbreaks for 2 forecasting systems by 26% and 14%, from 2 weeks before to 3 weeks after the predicted peak of infected mosquitoes. This period is the time span during which 47% of human cases are reported. Of 7064 mosquito pools, 500 (7%) tested positive; the reporting lag for these data associated with viral testing at a state laboratory was a mean (SD) of 6.6 (2.6) days (range, 4-11 days). This reporting lag was associated with decreased mean forecast accuracy for the 3 mosquito infection indicators, timing, magnitude, and season, by approximately 5% for both forecasting systems. Conclusions and Relevance: Delays in reporting human WNV disease and infected mosquito information are associated with difficulties in outbreak surveillance and decreased real-time forecast accuracy. Infected mosquito lags were short enough that skillful forecasts could still be generated for mosquito infection indicators, but the human WNV case lags were too great to support accurate forecasting in real time. Forecasting WNV is potentially an important evidence-based decision support tool for public health officials and mosquito abatement districts; however, to operationalize real-time forecasting, more resources are needed to reduce human case reporting lags between illness onset and case confirmation.


Assuntos
Confiabilidade dos Dados , Notificação de Doenças/estatística & dados numéricos , Previsões/métodos , Saúde Pública/estatística & dados numéricos , Febre do Nilo Ocidental/epidemiologia , Vírus do Nilo Ocidental , Animais , Culicidae/virologia , Surtos de Doenças/estatística & dados numéricos , Humanos , Saúde Pública/métodos , Estudos Retrospectivos , Estações do Ano , Fatores de Tempo , Estados Unidos/epidemiologia
11.
Parasit Vectors ; 11(1): 362, 2018 Jun 25.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-29941031

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: The year 1971 was the first time in New York State (NYS) that Eastern equine encephalitis virus (EEEV) was identified in mosquitoes, in Culiseta melanura and Culiseta morsitans. At that time, state and county health departments began surveillance for EEEV in mosquitoes. METHODS: From 1993 to 2012, county health departments continued voluntary participation with the state health department in mosquito and arbovirus surveillance. Adult female mosquitoes were trapped, identified, and pooled. Mosquito pools were tested for EEEV by Vero cell culture each of the twenty years. Beginning in 2000, mosquito extracts and cell culture supernatant were tested by reverse transcriptase-polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR). RESULTS: During the years 1993 to 2012, EEEV was identified in: Culiseta melanura, Culiseta morsitans, Coquillettidia perturbans, Aedes canadensis (Ochlerotatus canadensis), Aedes vexans, Anopheles punctipennis, Anopheles quadrimaculatus, Psorophora ferox, Culex salinarius, and Culex pipiens-restuans group. EEEV was detected in 427 adult mosquito pools of 107,156 pools tested totaling 3.96 million mosquitoes. Detections of EEEV occurred in three geographical regions of NYS: Sullivan County, Suffolk County, and the contiguous counties of Madison, Oneida, Onondaga and Oswego. Detections of EEEV in mosquitoes occurred every year from 2003 to 2012, inclusive. EEEV was not detected in 1995, and 1998 to 2002, inclusive. CONCLUSIONS: This was the first time in NYS that EEEV was detected in Cx. salinarius, Ps. ferox and An. punctipennis. The detection of EEEV in mosquitoes every year for 10 years was the longest time span since surveillance began in 1971. The calendar date of the earliest annual appearance of EEEV in mosquitoes did not change during surveillance spanning 42 years.


Assuntos
Culicidae/virologia , Vírus da Encefalite Equina do Leste/isolamento & purificação , Encefalomielite Equina/virologia , Doenças dos Cavalos/virologia , Insetos Vetores/virologia , Animais , Culicidae/classificação , Culicidae/fisiologia , Vírus da Encefalite Equina do Leste/classificação , Vírus da Encefalite Equina do Leste/genética , Encefalomielite Equina/epidemiologia , Encefalomielite Equina/transmissão , Feminino , Doenças dos Cavalos/epidemiologia , Doenças dos Cavalos/transmissão , Cavalos , Humanos , Insetos Vetores/classificação , Insetos Vetores/fisiologia , Masculino , New York/epidemiologia
12.
PLoS Comput Biol ; 14(3): e1006047, 2018 03.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-29522514

RESUMO

Ecological and laboratory studies have demonstrated that temperature modulates West Nile virus (WNV) transmission dynamics and spillover infection to humans. Here we explore whether inclusion of temperature forcing in a model depicting WNV transmission improves WNV forecast accuracy relative to a baseline model depicting WNV transmission without temperature forcing. Both models are optimized using a data assimilation method and two observed data streams: mosquito infection rates and reported human WNV cases. Each coupled model-inference framework is then used to generate retrospective ensemble forecasts of WNV for 110 outbreak years from among 12 geographically diverse United States counties. The temperature-forced model improves forecast accuracy for much of the outbreak season. From the end of July until the beginning of October, a timespan during which 70% of human cases are reported, the temperature-forced model generated forecasts of the total number of human cases over the next 3 weeks, total number of human cases over the season, the week with the highest percentage of infectious mosquitoes, and the peak percentage of infectious mosquitoes that on average increased absolute forecast accuracy 5%, 10%, 12%, and 6%, respectively, over the non-temperature forced baseline model. These results indicate that use of temperature forcing improves WNV forecast accuracy and provide further evidence that temperature influences rates of WNV transmission. The findings provide a foundation for implementation of a statistically rigorous system for real-time forecast of seasonal WNV outbreaks and their use as a quantitative decision support tool for public health officials and mosquito control programs.


Assuntos
Previsões/métodos , Febre do Nilo Ocidental/epidemiologia , Febre do Nilo Ocidental/transmissão , Animais , Culicidae , Surtos de Doenças , Humanos , Insetos Vetores/virologia , Modelos Teóricos , Controle de Mosquitos/tendências , Saúde Pública/tendências , Estudos Retrospectivos , Estações do Ano , Temperatura , Febre do Nilo Ocidental/prevenção & controle , Vírus do Nilo Ocidental
13.
Infect Genet Evol ; 51: 219-226, 2017 07.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-28411164

RESUMO

West Nile virus (WNV; Flaviviridae, Flavivirus) has been endemic in New York State (NYS) since its 1999 introduction, yet prevalence in Culex mosquitoes varies substantially over small spatial and temporal scales. It is unclear if viral genetics plays a role in this variability, as genetic and phenotypic characterization on local scales has generally been lacking. In addition, intrahost diversity of circulating strains have not been fully characterized despite the documented role of minority variants in viral fitness and virulence. In an effort to characterize WNV variability within epidemiologically relevant scales, we performed phylogenetic analyses on NYS isolates from 1999 to 2012. In addition, we performed full-genome, deep-sequencing and genetic analyses on 15 WNV strains isolated in 2012 from Cx. pipiens in an endemic focus of Suffolk County, NY. Our results indicate continued evolution and seasonal maintenance in NYS, yet also widespread mixing and high levels of genetic diversity within geographic foci and individual seasons. Well supported local clusters with shared amino acid differences were identified and suggest local evolutionary pressures and the potential for phenotypic variability. Intrahost diversity of focal isolates was also high, with polymorphism at levels >1.0% identified in approximately 10% of the WNV genome. Although most minority mutations were unique, mutational hotspots shared among local isolates were identified, particularly in C, NS1 and NS2A genes. The most polymorphic region, positions 3198-3388 of the NS1 gene, was comprised predominately of non-synonymous mutations, suggesting a selective advantage for amino acid diversity in this region.


Assuntos
Culex/virologia , Variação Genética , Genoma Viral , Insetos Vetores/virologia , Seleção Genética , Vírus do Nilo Ocidental/genética , Animais , Evolução Molecular , New York , Filogenia , Estações do Ano , Proteínas não Estruturais Virais/genética , Vírus do Nilo Ocidental/classificação
14.
Nat Commun ; 8: 14592, 2017 02 24.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-28233783

RESUMO

West Nile virus (WNV) is now endemic in the continental United States; however, our ability to predict spillover transmission risk and human WNV cases remains limited. Here we develop a model depicting WNV transmission dynamics, which we optimize using a data assimilation method and two observed data streams, mosquito infection rates and reported human WNV cases. The coupled model-inference framework is then used to generate retrospective ensemble forecasts of historical WNV outbreaks in Long Island, New York for 2001-2014. Accurate forecasts of mosquito infection rates are generated before peak infection, and >65% of forecasts accurately predict seasonal total human WNV cases up to 9 weeks before the past reported case. This work provides the foundation for implementation of a statistically rigorous system for real-time forecast of seasonal outbreaks of WNV.


Assuntos
Culicidae/virologia , Surtos de Doenças , Mosquitos Vetores/virologia , Febre do Nilo Ocidental/epidemiologia , Vírus do Nilo Ocidental/patogenicidade , Animais , Monitoramento Epidemiológico , Feminino , Previsões/métodos , Humanos , Modelos Biológicos , Estudos Retrospectivos , Estações do Ano , Estados Unidos/epidemiologia , Febre do Nilo Ocidental/transmissão , Febre do Nilo Ocidental/virologia
15.
Ecosphere ; 8(6): e01854, 2017.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-30147987

RESUMO

Suffolk County, New York, is a locus for West Nile virus (WNV) infection in the American northeast that includes the majority of Long Island to the east of New York City. The county has a system of light and gravid traps used for mosquito collection and disease monitoring. In order to identify predictors of WNV incidence in mosquitoes and predict future occurrence of WNV, we have developed a spatiotemporal Bayesian model, beginning with over 40 ecological, meteorological, and built-environment covariates. A mixed-effects model including spatially and temporally correlated errors was fit to WNV surveillance data from 2008 to 2014 using the R package "R-INLA," which allows for Bayesian modeling using the stochastic partial differential equation (SPDE) approach. The integrated nested Laplace approximation (INLA) SPDE allows for simultaneous fitting of a temporal parameter and a spatial covariance, while incorporating a variety of likelihood functions and running in R statistical software on a home computer. We found that land cover classified as open water and woody wetlands had a negative association with WNV incidence in mosquitoes, and the count of septic systems was associated with an increase in WNV. Mean temperature at two-week lag was associated with a strong positive impact, while mean precipitation at no lag and one-week lag was associated with positive and negative impacts on WNV, respectively. Incorporation of spatiotemporal factors resulted in a marked increase in model goodness-of-fit. The predictive power of the model was evaluated on 2015 surveillance results, where the best model achieved a sensitivity of 80.9% and a specificity of 77.0%. The spatial covariate was mapped across the county, identifying a gradient of WNV prevalence increasing from east to west. The Bayesian spatiotemporal model improves upon previous approaches, and we recommend the INLA SPDE methodology as an efficient way to develop robust models from surveillance data to develop and enhance monitoring and control programs. Our study confirms previously found associations between weather conditions and WNV and suggests that wetland cover has a mitigating effect on WNV infection in mosquitoes, while high septic system density is associated with an increase in WNV infection.

16.
Parasit Vectors ; 9(1): 443, 2016 08 09.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-27507279

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: West Nile Virus (WNV) is an endemic public health concern in the United States that produces periodic seasonal epidemics. Underlying these outbreaks is the enzootic cycle of WNV between mosquito vectors and bird hosts. Identifying the key environmental conditions that facilitate and accelerate this cycle can be used to inform effective vector control. RESULTS: Here, we model and forecast WNV infection rates among mosquito vectors in Suffolk County, New York using readily available meteorological and hydrological conditions. We first validate a statistical model built with surveillance data between 2001 and 2009 (m09) and specify a set of new statistical models using surveillance data from 2001 to 2012 (m12). This ensemble of new models is then used to make predictions for 2013-2015, and multimodel inference is employed to provide a formal probabilistic interpretation across the disparate individual model predictions. The findings of the m09 and m12 models align; with the ensemble of m12 models indicating an association between warm, dry early spring (April) conditions and increased annual WNV infection rates in Culex mosquitoes. CONCLUSIONS: This study shows that real-time climate information can be used to predict WNV infection rates in Culex mosquitoes prior to its seasonal peak and before WNV spillover transmission risk to humans is greatest.


Assuntos
Culex/virologia , Mosquitos Vetores/virologia , Febre do Nilo Ocidental/transmissão , Vírus do Nilo Ocidental/fisiologia , Animais , Clima , Culex/fisiologia , Meio Ambiente , Humanos , Modelos Biológicos , Mosquitos Vetores/fisiologia , New York/epidemiologia , Estações do Ano , Febre do Nilo Ocidental/epidemiologia , Febre do Nilo Ocidental/virologia , Vírus do Nilo Ocidental/classificação , Vírus do Nilo Ocidental/genética , Vírus do Nilo Ocidental/isolamento & purificação
17.
J Med Entomol ; 48(4): 867-75, 2011 Jul.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-21845947

RESUMO

The factors determining the spatial and temporal distribution of West Nile virus (family Flaviviridae, genus Flavivirus, WNV) activity are not well understood. Here, we explore the effects of hydrological and meteorological conditions on WNV infection among Culex genus mosquitoes collected during 2001-2009 in Suffolk County, Long Island, NY. We show that WNV infection rates in assayed pools of Culex mosquitoes are associated in both space and time with hydrological and meteorological variability. Specifically, wet winter, warm and wet spring conditions, and dry summer conditions are associated with the increased local prevalence of WNV among Culex mosquitoes during summer and fall. These findings indicate that within Suffolk County, and for a given year, areas at risk for heightened WNV activity may be identified in advance by using hydrology model estimates of land surface wetness and observed meteorological conditions.


Assuntos
Culex/virologia , Vírus do Nilo Ocidental/isolamento & purificação , Animais , Clima , Culex/fisiologia , Meio Ambiente , Modelos Lineares , New York , Dinâmica Populacional , Prevalência , Estações do Ano , Ciclo Hidrológico
18.
PLoS One ; 6(8): e23280, 2011.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-21853103

RESUMO

A West Nile virus (WNV) human risk map was developed for Suffolk County, New York utilizing a case-control approach to explore the association between the risk of vector-borne WNV and habitat, landscape, virus activity, and socioeconomic variables derived from publically available datasets. Results of logistic regression modeling for the time period between 2000 and 2004 revealed that higher proportion of population with college education, increased habitat fragmentation, and proximity to WNV positive mosquito pools were strongly associated with WNV human risk. Similar to previous investigations from north-central US, this study identified middle class suburban neighborhoods as the areas with the highest WNV human risk. These results contrast with similar studies from the southern and western US, where the highest WNV risk was associated with low income areas. This discrepancy may be due to regional differences in vector ecology, urban environment, or human behavior. Geographic Information Systems (GIS) analytical tools were used to integrate the risk factors in the 2000-2004 logistic regression model generating WNV human risk map. In 2005-2010, 41 out of 46 (89%) of WNV human cases occurred either inside of (30 cases) or in close proximity (11 cases) to the WNV high risk areas predicted by the 2000-2004 model. The novel approach employed by this study may be implemented by other municipal, local, or state public health agencies to improve geographic risk estimates for vector-borne diseases based on a small number of acute human cases.


Assuntos
Meio Ambiente , Febre do Nilo Ocidental/epidemiologia , Febre do Nilo Ocidental/virologia , Vírus do Nilo Ocidental/fisiologia , Estudos de Casos e Controles , Análise por Conglomerados , Humanos , Modelos Logísticos , Cidade de Nova Iorque/epidemiologia , Fatores de Risco , Fatores Socioeconômicos
19.
Pediatrics ; 127 Suppl 1: S87-91, 2011 May.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-21502241

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention frequently receives inquiries from health care providers, public health officials, and the general public seeking data or guidance on vaccine-safety issues. Past inquiries to public health authorities identified potential problems including viscerotropic illness rarely associated with yellow fever vaccination. OBJECTIVE: To systematically describe vaccine-safety inquiries received at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. METHODS: External and internal inquiries were recorded in a database from May 1, 2002 to May 31, 2009. Key variables analyzed included the source of the question, the type of information being sought, and the vaccine type(s) associated with the inquiry. RESULTS: A total of 983 vaccine-safety inquiries were answered and analyzed. Health care workers were the source of 43% of the questions, and the general public accounted for 19% of the questions. Nearly half of the requests (49%) concerned information about the Vaccine Adverse Event Reporting System, and nearly one-fourth (21%) were requests from providers for clinical guidance. The most frequent specific topics of inquiry and vaccines involved were neurologic adverse events (AEs) temporally associated with vaccination (17%) and safety of all vaccines or childhood vaccines (20%), respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Questions about rare but potentially serious AEs and general concerns about vaccine safety were encountered relatively frequently. The substantial number of clinically focused inquiries may indicate a need for more provider support tools and resources. Tracking of inquiries can supplement information received through vaccine AE reporting and contribute to an enhanced scientific and communications response to vaccine-safety concerns.


Assuntos
Sistemas de Notificação de Reações Adversas a Medicamentos , Informática Médica/organização & administração , Inquéritos e Questionários , Vacinas/efeitos adversos , Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, U.S. , Bases de Dados Factuais , Efeitos Colaterais e Reações Adversas Relacionados a Medicamentos , Feminino , Humanos , Masculino , Estados Unidos , Vacinas/administração & dosagem
20.
Pediatrics ; 127 Suppl 1: S39-44, 2011 May.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-21502243

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: On March 22, 2002, Internet-based reports (IBRs) were added to the Vaccine Adverse Event Reporting System (VAERS) to allow rapid, expedited reporting of adverse events (AEs) in anticipation of wider use of counter-bioterrorism vaccines such as those against smallpox and anthrax. OBJECTIVES: To evaluate the impact of IBRs on the timeliness and completeness of vaccine AE reporting. METHODS: To evaluate timeliness and completeness, we compared the proportions of IBRs with non-Internet-based reports (NIBRs). Report interval was analyzed for timeliness and age at vaccination, birth date, and onset date for report completeness. To evaluate the impact of the smallpox vaccination program, we compared smallpox vaccine reports separately. Because influenza vaccine is the most widely used vaccine in adults each year, we compared influenza vaccine reports separately. RESULTS: During the study period, VAERS received 54 364 NIBRs (85.8%) and 9008 IBRs (14.2%). Sixteen percent (1455) of IBRs followed smallpox vaccination. Overall, for all vaccines and for smallpox vaccine alone, IBRs had a greater proportion of completeness and a shorter report interval. The proportion of most frequently reported AEs did not differ between IBRs and NIBRs. A higher proportion of adults (18-64 years old) who received influenza vaccine chose to complete an IBR (62% vs 48%). CONCLUSIONS: The improved timeliness and completeness of IBRs allow VAERS to more rapidly detect new or rare vaccine AEs. This important advantage is critical in times of increased public concern about vaccine safety. Clinical vaccine providers should be aware of VAERS and use IBRs whenever feasible to report vaccine AEs.


Assuntos
Sistemas de Notificação de Reações Adversas a Medicamentos/estatística & dados numéricos , Internet/estatística & dados numéricos , Vacinação/estatística & dados numéricos , Vacinas/efeitos adversos , Adolescente , Adulto , Fatores Etários , Criança , Pré-Escolar , Intervalos de Confiança , Bases de Dados Factuais , Efeitos Colaterais e Reações Adversas Relacionados a Medicamentos , Humanos , Programas de Imunização/organização & administração , Lactente , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Estudos Retrospectivos , Fatores de Tempo , Estados Unidos , Vacinação/efeitos adversos , Vacinas/administração & dosagem , Adulto Jovem
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