RESUMO
BACKGROUND: Atrial fibrillation (AF) recurrence after ablation will increase mortality and morbidity during follow up. We attempted to evaluate the relationship between circular RNAs (circRNA) and AF recurrence to establish a predictive model for early intervention. METHODS: Patients who received surgical ablation retrospectively were analyzed. The expression of circRNAs were detected in the left atrial appendage. The independent risk factors of late recurrence were analyzed by multivariate analysis. The predictive model was visualized by Nomogram and tested by receiver operating characteristic curve and calibration plot. Kaplan-Meier plot was used to compare the rate of freedom from AF recurrence after surgery. The relationships between circRNAs and clinical characteristics were detected by Spearman's correlation analysis. RESULTS: A total of 136 patients were enrolled from September 2018 to June 2019, 55 patients experienced late recurrence during one-year follow up. Increased age, longer AF duration and increased circ 81906-RYR2, circ 44782-LAMA2, circ 418-KCNN2 and circ 35880-ANO5 were detected in recurrent patients. Multivariate analysis revealed that increased age (odds ratio (OR)=1.072, P = 0.006), longer AF duration (OR=1.007, P = 0.036) and increased circ 81906-RYR2 (OR=2.210, P < 0.001) were independent risk factors for late recurrence. Area under the curve was 0.77, and the cut-off value was 70 points of the predictive model. Kaplan-Meier plots showed that patients over 70 points tended to experience AF recurrence. CONCLUSION: Circ 81906-RYR2 could be a new predictor of late recurrence after surgical ablation. A predictive model consists of age, atrial fibrillation duration, and circ 81906-RYR2 was alternative for early intervention of AF recurrence.